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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Sabanalarga — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Sabanalarga / Atlantico · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-08638

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Sabanalarga / Atlantico
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-137b461c683999b678cf3e2f
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • COALICION POR LA ESPERANZA36.7%
  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO22.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO NUEVO LIBERALISMO17.5%
  • SABANALARGA NOS UNE16.3%
  • CEDE party code 202300032.6%
  • PARTIDO POLITICO DIGNIDAD2.0%
  • FUERZA CIUDADANA LA FUERZA DEL CAMBIO0.7%
  • PARTIDO VERDE OXIGENO0.6%
  • CEDE party code 202300060.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE SALVACION NACIONAL - MSN0.3%
  • CEDE party code 202300020.2%
  • PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE0.2%
  • CEDE party code 202300010.1%
Results for event-9a4eaf11f3b2c7bd69f329c9
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
COALICION POR LA ESPERANZA · Jose Elias Chams Chams20230858colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202318,65936.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Dagoberto De Jesus Barraza Sanjuan20030001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202311,33722.3%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO NUEVO LIBERALISMO · Libardo Moises Berdugo Bojanini19790001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20238,88517.5%UnknownRecorded
SABANALARGA NOS UNE · Jenner Gil Mejia Perez20231891colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20238,31316.3%UnknownRecorded
CEDE party code 20230003 · Nestor Enrique Cardona Morales20230003colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,3232.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO POLITICO DIGNIDAD · Edgardo Antonio Castro Salas20200001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,0172%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA CIUDADANA LA FUERZA DEL CAMBIO · Elsy Sofia Altamar Colon20150388colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20233650.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO VERDE OXIGENO · Rafael Antonio Borge Salazar19980003colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232930.6%UnknownRecorded
CEDE party code 20230006 · Hermes Enrique Castellanos Olivares20230006colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232230.4%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO DE SALVACION NACIONAL - MSN · Eric Alberto Manotas Vasquez19900001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231540.3%UnknownRecorded
CEDE party code 20230002 · Abel Antonio Cepeda Macias20230002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231200.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE · Juan Jacobo Manotas Roa20180046colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023960.2%UnknownRecorded
CEDE party code 20230001 · Roberto Carlos Leon Peña20230001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023760.1%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO56.1%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE SABANALARGA-ATL. PARTIDO LIBERAL - PARTIDO DE LA U - "ESTOY CON SABANALARGA PLAN DE TODOS"42.2%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI1.1%
  • PARTIDO COLOMBIA HUMANA Y UNION PATRIOTICA0.4%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE0.3%
Results for event-853345bdb4a776a50e777b4d
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Jorge Luis Manotas Manotas20030001colombia/S67eb704c85/201930,07656.1%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE SABANALARGA-ATL. PARTIDO LIBERAL - PARTIDO DE LA U - "ESTOY CON SABANALARGA PLAN DE TODOS" · Nini Yohana Cantillo Estrada20190383colombia/S67eb704c85/201922,62542.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Indira Gonzalez Estrada19910006colombia/S67eb704c85/20195751.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO COLOMBIA HUMANA Y UNION PATRIOTICA · Guillermo Ramirez Garcia20190033colombia/S67eb704c85/20191970.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Francisco Guillermo Berdugo Rodriguez20090002colombia/S67eb704c85/20191490.3%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO56.1%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO34.9%
  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO8.3%
  • PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA0.4%
  • UNION PATRIOTICA - UP0.3%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE0.0%
Results for event-d5a12104c497a92d36f90615
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Jose Elias Chams Chams18480001colombia/S8164286948/201526,22356.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Carlos Mario Zuluaga Pardo18490002colombia/S8164286948/201516,30434.9%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Jorge Luis Manotas Manotas20030001colombia/S8164286948/20153,8988.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA · Rober Ernesto Sanjuan Pugliesse20090001colombia/S8164286948/20151760.4%UnknownRecorded
UNION PATRIOTICA - UP · Ismael Alvarez Caballero19850001colombia/S8164286948/20151570.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Retirado (A)20130001colombia/S8164286948/2015190%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

25.370–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=14.396099172253788, oldest_gap=21.204865639096134, previous_gap=13.895416060572153

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

35.15percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,22.290163386484732,0,0,0,0,0,0,77.70983661351528],[0,0,0,56.08891872738801,0,0.2778710230875387,1.0723210622505688,0,0,0,42.56088918727388],[34.854736302028776,56.05960194112491,0,8.333155183102807,0.04061825256001881,0,0,0,0,0,0.7118883211834877]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

90.95percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,22.290163386484732,0,0,0,0,0,0,77.70983661351528],[0,0,0,56.08891872738801,0,0.2778710230875387,1.0723210622505688,0,0,0,42.56088918727388],[34.854736302028776,56.05960194112491,0,8.333155183102807,0.04061825256001881,0,0,0,0,0,0.7118883211834877]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

63.05percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,0,22.290163386484732,0,0,0,0,0,0,77.70983661351528],[0,0,0,56.08891872738801,0,0.2778710230875387,1.0723210622505688,0,0,0,42.56088918727388],[34.854736302028776,56.05960194112491,0,8.333155183102807,0.04061825256001881,0,0,0,0,0,0.7118883211834877]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Sabanalarga — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-08638. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.