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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Candelaria — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Candelaria / Atlantico · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-08141

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Candelaria / Atlantico
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-bf560d6b4c7ca1cc9aa313ed
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • MOVIMIENTO POLITICO COLOMBIA HUMANA39.5%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO35.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO NUEVO LIBERALISMO14.7%
  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO7.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS2.4%
  • PARTIDO VERDE OXIGENO0.4%
Results for event-e6e85c11df82911d85fbd6af
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO POLITICO COLOMBIA HUMANA · Hayder Alexander Orozco Solano19690001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20234,22439.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Javier Enrique Rodriguez Consuegra18480001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20233,83235.9%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO NUEVO LIBERALISMO · Juan Alberto Gomez Del Castillo19790001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,57114.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Jose Alfredo Fonseca Bolivar20030001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20237597.1%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS · Franklin Miguel Ortega Julio20130002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232532.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO VERDE OXIGENO · Ever Atilio Bolivar Cervantes19980003colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023430.4%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO36.9%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO24.8%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO24.5%
  • POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO12.1%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI1.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS0.2%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U0.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO AUTORIDADES INDIGENAS DE COLOMBIA - AICO0.1%
Results for event-24764ff83c1f2d53ff36e400
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Gregorio De Jesus Brito Valencia20030001colombia/S67eb704c85/20193,81536.9%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Edgardo Antonio Flores Obredor18480001colombia/S67eb704c85/20192,56824.8%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Jose Alfredo Fonseca Bolivar18490002colombia/S67eb704c85/20192,53724.5%UnknownRecorded
POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO · Hayder Alexander Orozco Solano20050001colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,25212.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Ever Atilio Bolivar Cervantes19910006colombia/S67eb704c85/20191161.1%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS · Omar De Jesus Suarez Prasca20130002colombia/S67eb704c85/2019250.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Ivon Shirley Garcia Sanjuan20050002colombia/S67eb704c85/2019130.1%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO AUTORIDADES INDIGENAS DE COLOMBIA - AICO · Saul Hernando Pacheco Sierra19910001colombia/S67eb704c85/2019120.1%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE CANDELARIA-ATL. PARTIDO DE LA U Y PARTIDO LIBERAL52.5%
  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO47.5%
Results for event-57ef73ffd6dd773265150fb1
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
COALICION ALCALDIA DE CANDELARIA-ATL. PARTIDO DE LA U Y PARTIDO LIBERAL · Javier Enrique Rodriguez Consuegra20150053colombia/S8164286948/20154,41952.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Gregorio De Jesus Brito Valencia20030001colombia/S8164286948/20153,99447.5%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

68.370–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=3.6697247706422047, oldest_gap=5.051705693569474, previous_gap=12.06229444766879

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

67.81percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,35.87343194158397,0,7.105410971728141,0,0,0,2.36847032390938,0,0,54.65268676277851],[24.540530083188237,24.840394660475916,0.1257496614432192,36.902689108144706,0,0,1.1220739021087252,0.24182627200619075,12.110659702070032,0.11607661056297155,0],[0,0,0,47.47414715321526,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.52585284678474]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

63.1percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,35.87343194158397,0,7.105410971728141,0,0,0,2.36847032390938,0,0,54.65268676277851],[24.540530083188237,24.840394660475916,0.1257496614432192,36.902689108144706,0,0,1.1220739021087252,0.24182627200619075,12.110659702070032,0.11607661056297155,0],[0,0,0,47.47414715321526,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.52585284678474]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

65.45percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,35.87343194158397,0,7.105410971728141,0,0,0,2.36847032390938,0,0,54.65268676277851],[24.540530083188237,24.840394660475916,0.1257496614432192,36.902689108144706,0,0,1.1220739021087252,0.24182627200619075,12.110659702070032,0.11607661056297155,0],[0,0,0,47.47414715321526,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.52585284678474]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Candelaria — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-08141. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.