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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Yarumal — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Yarumal / Antioquia · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-05887

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Yarumal / Antioquia
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-f4f5552ed0a263a2910f65b8
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • YARUMAL NOS UNE38.2%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U24.4%
  • SUMEMOS POR YARUMAL22.9%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO12.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO NUEVO LIBERALISMO2.2%
Results for event-4bc1c961f6da9b83173627b8
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
YARUMAL NOS UNE · Cristian David Cespedes Correa20232326colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20235,79438.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Marta Isabel Palacio Moreno20050002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20233,69324.4%UnknownRecorded
SUMEMOS POR YARUMAL · Luis Fernando Espinosa Echavarria20232007colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20233,46922.9%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Hubeimar Ivan Bustamante Torres18490002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,86312.3%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO NUEVO LIBERALISMO · Fredy Alonso Mazo Chavarria19790001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20233402.2%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO51.5%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE29.3%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE YARUMAL-ANT. POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO Y PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE - "YARUMAL GRANDE PARA TODOS"19.2%
Results for event-04045b3336a66f625b1eb888
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Miguel Angel Pelaez Henao18490002colombia/S67eb704c85/20198,69251.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Carlos Guillermo Atehortua Quiceno20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/20194,94929.3%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE YARUMAL-ANT. POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO Y PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE - "YARUMAL GRANDE PARA TODOS" · Cristian David Cespedes Correa20190375colombia/S67eb704c85/20193,23219.2%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI53.2%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO14.7%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO11.0%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE8.7%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE6.6%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U5.3%
  • POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO0.5%
Results for event-bcb88a1120976f869ce08198
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Julio Anibal Areiza Palacio19910006colombia/S8164286948/20158,08953.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Cecilio Hernan Alzate Casas18490002colombia/S8164286948/20152,23314.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Diego Roldan Jaramillo18480001colombia/S8164286948/20151,67411%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Carlos Guillermo Atehortua Quiceno20130001colombia/S8164286948/20151,3188.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Maria Eugenia Taborda Carmona20090002colombia/S8164286948/20151,0066.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Edilberto Posada Restrepo20050002colombia/S8164286948/20158005.3%UnknownRecorded
POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO · Comite Promotor Voto En Blanco20050001colombia/S8164286948/2015710.5%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

5.870–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=13.859753281878753, oldest_gap=38.54914093871371, previous_gap=22.18336988087477

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

68.56percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[12.289728873936275,0,24.361765287947755,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,63.34850583811597],[51.514253541160436,0,0,0,29.330883660285664,0,0,0,0,0,19.154862798553904],[14.699493120926865,11.019682706865908,5.2662760845237315,0,8.676189849252847,6.622342176288592,53.24863405964058,0,0.46738200250148115,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

76.62percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[12.289728873936275,0,24.361765287947755,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,63.34850583811597],[51.514253541160436,0,0,0,29.330883660285664,0,0,0,0,0,19.154862798553904],[14.699493120926865,11.019682706865908,5.2662760845237315,0,8.676189849252847,6.622342176288592,53.24863405964058,0,0.46738200250148115,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

72.59percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[12.289728873936275,0,24.361765287947755,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,63.34850583811597],[51.514253541160436,0,0,0,29.330883660285664,0,0,0,0,0,19.154862798553904],[14.699493120926865,11.019682706865908,5.2662760845237315,0,8.676189849252847,6.622342176288592,53.24863405964058,0,0.46738200250148115,0,0]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Yarumal — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-05887. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.