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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Valparaiso — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Valparaiso / Antioquia · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-05856

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Valparaiso / Antioquia
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-b76214004ab09d4ceddb8545
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO45.8%
  • VALPARAISO UN HOGAR DE OPORTUNIDADES29.3%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE25.0%
Results for event-eef48418c87c18c11f05f193
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Jose Mario Hernandez Devia18490002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,58045.8%UnknownRecorded
VALPARAISO UN HOGAR DE OPORTUNIDADES · Sergio Andres Ceballos Lopez20232282colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,01029.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Norbey De Jesus Garzon Valencia20090002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202386225%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO64.1%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE VALPARAISO-ANT. PARTIDO LIBERAL Y PARTIDO DE LA U - "COMPROMISO Y GESTION POR VALPARAISO"23.2%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE11.8%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI0.9%
Results for event-24d2e3451c6267ab3e3ac880
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Jaime Alberto Rincon Galvis18490002colombia/S67eb704c85/20192,32964.1%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE VALPARAISO-ANT. PARTIDO LIBERAL Y PARTIDO DE LA U - "COMPROMISO Y GESTION POR VALPARAISO" · Dalgy Bibiana Rico Angel20190366colombia/S67eb704c85/201984423.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Jose Mario Angel Vasquez20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/201943011.8%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Elkin Adolfo Zuleta Giraldo19910006colombia/S67eb704c85/2019330.9%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE37.7%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO37.1%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO15.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS9.9%
Results for event-800d5e6e7f53451589734b71
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Sergio Andres Ceballos Lopez20130001colombia/S8164286948/20151,19537.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Jaime Alberto Rincon Galvis18490002colombia/S8164286948/20151,17637.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Rita Maria Vasquez Gaviria18480001colombia/S8164286948/201548815.4%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS · Hernan De Jesus Granada Martinez20130002colombia/S8164286948/20153139.9%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

0 (recorded zero)0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=16.512166859791424, oldest_gap=0.5989911727616644, previous_gap=40.84158415841584

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

31.02percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[45.77056778679027,0,0,0,0,24.97103128621089,0,0,0,0,29.258400926998842],[64.05390539053906,0,0,0,11.826182618261827,0,0.9075907590759076,0,0,0,23.212321232123212],[37.07440100882724,15.384615384615385,0,0,37.6733921815889,0,0,9.867591424968474,0,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

51.1percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[45.77056778679027,0,0,0,0,24.97103128621089,0,0,0,0,29.258400926998842],[64.05390539053906,0,0,0,11.826182618261827,0,0.9075907590759076,0,0,0,23.212321232123212],[37.07440100882724,15.384615384615385,0,0,37.6733921815889,0,0,9.867591424968474,0,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

41.06percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[45.77056778679027,0,0,0,0,24.97103128621089,0,0,0,0,29.258400926998842],[64.05390539053906,0,0,0,11.826182618261827,0,0.9075907590759076,0,0,0,23.212321232123212],[37.07440100882724,15.384615384615385,0,0,37.6733921815889,0,0,9.867591424968474,0,0,0]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Valparaiso — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-05856. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.