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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Sopetran — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Sopetran / Antioquia · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-05761

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Sopetran / Antioquia
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-1ad60e106c6ce9c97e69b757
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • SOPETRAN ES EL MOMENTO45.6%
  • EQUIPO SOPETRAN = MAS OPORTUNIDADES PARA TODOS32.8%
  • SOPETRAN NOS INSPIRA11.6%
  • CEDE party code 202300054.9%
  • SOPETRAN SOMOS TODOS4.3%
  • CEDE party code 202300040.8%
Results for event-0a571c26cfa3001321c00cba
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
SOPETRAN ES EL MOMENTO · Tatiana Alexandra Carballo Hoyos20231994colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20234,21245.6%UnknownRecorded
EQUIPO SOPETRAN = MAS OPORTUNIDADES PARA TODOS · Yeison Estiven Paniagua Gutierrez20231190colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20233,02632.8%UnknownRecorded
SOPETRAN NOS INSPIRA · Euclides Alvaro Londoño Londoño20231995colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,06711.6%UnknownRecorded
CEDE party code 20230005 · Stiven Andres Vanegas Franco20230005colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20234544.9%UnknownRecorded
SOPETRAN SOMOS TODOS · Lina Maria Arteaga Baena20231996colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20233974.3%UnknownRecorded
CEDE party code 20230004 · Fabian De Jesus Garcia Florez20230004colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023760.8%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE SOPETRAN-ANT. PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO Y PARTIDO DE LA U - "TODOS SOMOS SOPETRAN"40.8%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE SOPETRAN-ANT. PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL Y PARTIDO CONSERVADOR - "UNIDOS POR EL PROGRESO DE SOPETRAN"21.8%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO16.7%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE SOPETRAN-ANT. PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE - MOVIMIENTO MAIS Y POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO - "SOPETRAN UNIDO AVANZA"12.8%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE SOPETRAN-ANT. PARTIDO AICO - ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE Y ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AFROCOLOMBIANA ADA - "LO NUESTRO ES SOPETRAN"7.9%
Results for event-7d88a407fd73a5e6858006d7
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
COALICION ALCALDIA DE SOPETRAN-ANT. PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO Y PARTIDO DE LA U - "TODOS SOMOS SOPETRAN" · Diego Alejandro Villa Valderrama20190536colombia/S67eb704c85/20193,23040.8%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE SOPETRAN-ANT. PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL Y PARTIDO CONSERVADOR - "UNIDOS POR EL PROGRESO DE SOPETRAN" · Norberto Gallego Zapata20190533colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,72721.8%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Jhon Jairo Mejia Montoya18480001colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,31716.7%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE SOPETRAN-ANT. PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE - MOVIMIENTO MAIS Y POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO - "SOPETRAN UNIDO AVANZA" · Lina Maria Arteaga Baena20190534colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,01212.8%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE SOPETRAN-ANT. PARTIDO AICO - ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE Y ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AFROCOLOMBIANA ADA - "LO NUESTRO ES SOPETRAN" · Gerardo De Jesus Vanegas Jaramillo20190535colombia/S67eb704c85/20196237.9%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE SOPETRAN. PARTIDO LIBERAL Y PARTIDO CONSERVADOR49.4%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE SOPETRAN. PARTIDO DE LA U Y PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL32.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS9.0%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE5.4%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE2.1%
  • POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO1.9%
Results for event-ff90a372dac5d8514a40c1bb
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
COALICION ALCALDIA DE SOPETRAN. PARTIDO LIBERAL Y PARTIDO CONSERVADOR · Yeison Estiven Paniagua Gutierrez20150040colombia/S8164286948/20153,64649.4%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE SOPETRAN. PARTIDO DE LA U Y PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL · Luis Felipe Tobon Gonzalez20150039colombia/S8164286948/20152,36732.1%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS · Jorge Eliecer Quiceno Machado20130002colombia/S8164286948/20156659%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Adrian Alberto Vahos Uribe20090002colombia/S8164286948/20154005.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Leon Dario Tobon Orrego20130001colombia/S8164286948/20151562.1%UnknownRecorded
POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO · Fredy Armando Metaute Escudero20050001colombia/S8164286948/20151421.9%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

24.280–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=12.846620450606586, oldest_gap=17.340021691973973, previous_gap=19.003666708812744

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,[0,16.651915539259072,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,83.34808446074092],[0,0,0,0,2.1149674620390457,5.422993492407809,0,9.015726681127983,1.9251626898047722,0,81.52114967462039]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

18.48percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,[0,16.651915539259072,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,83.34808446074092],[0,0,0,0,2.1149674620390457,5.422993492407809,0,9.015726681127983,1.9251626898047722,0,81.52114967462039]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,[0,16.651915539259072,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,83.34808446074092],[0,0,0,0,2.1149674620390457,5.422993492407809,0,9.015726681127983,1.9251626898047722,0,81.52114967462039]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Sopetran — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-05761. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.