Office briefing
San Rafael — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Colombia · San Rafael / Antioquia · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-05667
Read the complete original research briefing
Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- San Rafael / Antioquia
- Next election
- 2027-10-31
- Linked upcoming event
- next-510b613caa758c9f37770764
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes
- PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE45.7%
- UN CAMINO DE OPORTUNIDADES38.3%
- AHORA SI SAN RAFAEL14.8%
- PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE1.0%
- PARTIDO POLITICO DIGNIDAD0.2%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Eduin Aniceto Giraldo Quintana | 20130001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 3,803 | 45.7% | Unknown | Recorded |
| UN CAMINO DE OPORTUNIDADES · David Esteban Bedoya Morales | 20232111colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 3,184 | 38.3% | Unknown | Recorded |
| AHORA SI SAN RAFAEL · Gladis Amparo Arboleda Orozco | 20230041colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 1,235 | 14.8% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE · Abad De Jesus Marin Arcila | 20180046colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 83 | 1% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO POLITICO DIGNIDAD · Alvaro De Jesus Giraldo Garcia | 20200001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 13 | 0.2% | Unknown | Recorded |
2019
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes
- PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO42.8%
- PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE25.1%
- PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE15.2%
- PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO9.8%
- MOVIMIENTO AUTORIDADES INDIGENAS DE COLOMBIA - AICO2.5%
- PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI2.1%
- PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE1.1%
- MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS0.7%
- PARTIDO COLOMBIA JUSTA LIBRES0.6%
- PARTIDO COLOMBIA HUMANA Y UNION PATRIOTICA0.1%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Libardo De Jesus Ciro Morales | 18490002colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 3,271 | 42.8% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Eduin Aniceto Giraldo Quintana | 20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 1,922 | 25.1% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Gladis Amparo Arboleda Orozco | 20090002colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 1,165 | 15.2% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Bernardo Alonso Arango Clavijo | 20030001colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 753 | 9.8% | Unknown | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO AUTORIDADES INDIGENAS DE COLOMBIA - AICO · Alberto Hincapie Giraldo | 19910001colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 188 | 2.5% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Andres Esteban Zuluaga Jimenez | 19910006colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 163 | 2.1% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE · Jose Hermes Posada Cano | 20180046colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 84 | 1.1% | Unknown | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS · Luis Oliverio Guarin Guarin | 20130002colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 50 | 0.7% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO COLOMBIA JUSTA LIBRES · Jhon Alberto Ortega | 20170001colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 49 | 0.6% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO COLOMBIA HUMANA Y UNION PATRIOTICA · Alberto Ospina Galvis | 20190033colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 5 | 0.1% | Unknown | Recorded |
2015
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes
- PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE56.3%
- PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO43.3%
- PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE0.5%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Abad De Jesus Marin Arcila | 20130001colombia/S8164286948/2015 | 3,933 | 56.3% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Libardo De Jesus Ciro Morales | 18490002colombia/S8164286948/2015 | 3,025 | 43.3% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Juan Fernando Gil Clavijo | 20090002colombia/S8164286948/2015 | 32 | 0.5% | Unknown | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI44.730–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=7.441692714594851, oldest_gap=12.989985693848354, previous_gap=17.633986928104573
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility73.07percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,45.7201250300553,0,0,0,0,0,54.2798749699447],[42.75816993464052,0,0,9.843137254901961,25.124183006535947,15.22875816993464,2.130718954248366,0.6535947712418301,0,2.457516339869281,1.803921568627451],[43.276108726752504,0,0,0,56.26609442060086,0.45779685264663805,0,0,0,0,0]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility31.66percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,45.7201250300553,0,0,0,0,0,54.2798749699447],[42.75816993464052,0,0,9.843137254901961,25.124183006535947,15.22875816993464,2.130718954248366,0.6535947712418301,0,2.457516339869281,1.803921568627451],[43.276108726752504,0,0,0,56.26609442060086,0.45779685264663805,0,0,0,0,0]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility52.37percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,45.7201250300553,0,0,0,0,0,54.2798749699447],[42.75816993464052,0,0,9.843137254901961,25.124183006535947,15.22875816993464,2.130718954248366,0.6535947712418301,0,2.457516339869281,1.803921568627451],[43.276108726752504,0,0,0,56.26609442060086,0.45779685264663805,0,0,0,0,0]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.
Sources
- Colombia: https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW · rights unknown
- Colombia: https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB · rights unknown
- Colombia: https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K · rights unknown
- Colombia: CEDE Colombia 2023 alcaldia · rights unknown
- Colombia: CEDE Colombia 2019 alcaldia · rights unknown
- Colombia: CEDE Colombia 2015 alcaldia · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “San Rafael — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-05667. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.