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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

San Luis — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · San Luis / Antioquia · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-05660

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
San Luis / Antioquia
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-2b1d25d9fb006f1e5c2979ec
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • ES EL MOMENTO48.3%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI23.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE SALVACION NACIONAL - MSN9.6%
  • COALICION CAMBIO RADICAL-PARTIDO DE LA U8.4%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO4.4%
  • PARA VOLVER A CREER4.4%
  • INDEPENDIENTES0.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLITICO COLOMBIA HUMANA0.1%
Results for event-daf798953a2afa25a2013362
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ES EL MOMENTO · Cesar Abad Buitrago Arias20231195colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20233,41948.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Fredy Alexander Guzman Ramirez19910006colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,69323.9%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO DE SALVACION NACIONAL - MSN · Jose Maximino Castaño Castaño19900001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20236799.6%UnknownRecorded
COALICION CAMBIO RADICAL-PARTIDO DE LA U · Carlos Mario Gomez Urrea20230414colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20235958.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Luis Fernando Gomez Ruiz18490002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20233134.4%UnknownRecorded
PARA VOLVER A CREER · Daniel Felipe Legarda Salazar20150249colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20233114.4%UnknownRecorded
INDEPENDIENTES · Rosa Andrea Rendon Naranjo20190087colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023550.8%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO POLITICO COLOMBIA HUMANA · Arcesio De Jesus Giraldo Garcia19690001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023100.1%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO52.4%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE47.6%
Results for event-b6d7d2ca87f288c536550a6a
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Henry Edilson Suarez Jimenez18490002colombia/S67eb704c85/20193,44652.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Cesar Abad Buitrago Arias20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/20193,13047.6%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE SAN LUIS. PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA Y PARTIDO DE LA U26.9%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO26.6%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE15.5%
  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO15.2%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO8.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO AUTORIDADES INDIGENAS DE COLOMBIA - AICO5.6%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE1.8%
Results for event-87e5a8b053cbdf796da8eb27
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
COALICION ALCALDIA DE SAN LUIS. PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA Y PARTIDO DE LA U · Jose Maximino Castaño Castaño20150035colombia/S8164286948/20151,62926.9%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Henry Edilson Suarez Jimenez18490002colombia/S8164286948/20151,61126.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Cesar Abad Buitrago Arias20130001colombia/S8164286948/201594115.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Rafael Antonio Giraldo Ceballos20030001colombia/S8164286948/201592215.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Marcos Antonio Naranjo Gutierrez18480001colombia/S8164286948/20155068.4%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO AUTORIDADES INDIGENAS DE COLOMBIA - AICO · Fredy Alexander Guzman Ramirez19910001colombia/S8164286948/20153375.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Luis Evelio Giraldo Garcia20090002colombia/S8164286948/20151101.8%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

19.460–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=24.39575971731449, oldest_gap=0.29722589167767666, previous_gap=4.8053527980535335

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

95.58percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[4.424028268551237,0,0,0,0,0,23.929328621908127,0,0,0,71.64664310954065],[52.40267639902677,0,0,0,47.59732360097323,0,0,0,0,0,0],[26.601717305151915,8.355350066050198,0,15.224570673712021,15.538309114927344,1.8163804491413473,0,0,0,5.564729194187582,26.898943196829592]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

57.86percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[4.424028268551237,0,0,0,0,0,23.929328621908127,0,0,0,71.64664310954065],[52.40267639902677,0,0,0,47.59732360097323,0,0,0,0,0,0],[26.601717305151915,8.355350066050198,0,15.224570673712021,15.538309114927344,1.8163804491413473,0,0,0,5.564729194187582,26.898943196829592]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

76.72percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[4.424028268551237,0,0,0,0,0,23.929328621908127,0,0,0,71.64664310954065],[52.40267639902677,0,0,0,47.59732360097323,0,0,0,0,0,0],[26.601717305151915,8.355350066050198,0,15.224570673712021,15.538309114927344,1.8163804491413473,0,0,0,5.564729194187582,26.898943196829592]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “San Luis — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-05660. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.