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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

San Carlos — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · San Carlos / Antioquia · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-05649

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
San Carlos / Antioquia
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-475e0dfe2f7b96bc9e53eb0f
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • UNIDOS POR LA TRANSFORMACION30.3%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U28.5%
  • CEDE party code 2023000519.1%
  • SAN CARLOS CREE6.8%
  • DE LA PALABRA AL HECHO5.5%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO5.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLITICO COLOMBIA HUMANA1.8%
  • PARTIDO POLITICO DIGNIDAD1.4%
  • AMOR POR SAN CARLOS0.8%
  • POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO0.5%
Results for event-0aa2317f5f45b96ca5c2e8b9
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
UNIDOS POR LA TRANSFORMACION · Santiago Daza Espinosa20232219colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232,72930.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Robinson De Jesus Ramirez Ramirez20050002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232,56628.5%UnknownRecorded
CEDE party code 20230005 · Jose Andres Ramirez Marin20230005colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,72419.1%UnknownRecorded
SAN CARLOS CREE · Maribel Ramirez Gutierrez20231904colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20236096.8%UnknownRecorded
DE LA PALABRA AL HECHO · Leonardo Jose Alvarez Parra20231079colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20234985.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Daruin Antonio Rios Zapata18490002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20234725.2%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO POLITICO COLOMBIA HUMANA · Jhon Jaime Posada Gomez19690001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231611.8%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO POLITICO DIGNIDAD · Farid Alberto Usme Cortes20200001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231261.4%UnknownRecorded
AMOR POR SAN CARLOS · Leoncio De Jesus Giraldo Urrea20230097colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023690.8%UnknownRecorded
POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO · Yorman Vidal Giraldo Murillo20050001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023490.5%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE SAN CARLOS-ANT. PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE - PARTIDO DE LA U Y ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - "SAN CARLOS SOMOS TODOS"39.3%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO32.0%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE23.1%
  • G.S.C YO SOY SAN CARLOS5.6%
  • PARTIDO COLOMBIA JUSTA LIBRES0.0%
Results for event-8ac218b4691b7e11bde106bc
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
COALICION ALCALDIA DE SAN CARLOS-ANT. PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE - PARTIDO DE LA U Y ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - "SAN CARLOS SOMOS TODOS" · Mary Luz Quintero Duque20190518colombia/S67eb704c85/20193,54539.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Maria Patricia Giraldo Ramirez18490002colombia/S67eb704c85/20192,88832%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Cristian Mauricio Buritica Garcia20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/20192,08323.1%UnknownRecorded
G.S.C YO SOY SAN CARLOS · Wilson Escudero Gallego20190117colombia/S67eb704c85/20195105.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO COLOMBIA JUSTA LIBRES · Gustavo Adolfo Hoyos Perez20170001colombia/S67eb704c85/201940%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA38.1%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U31.8%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE30.0%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO0.0%
Results for event-6acfcc880bb43d29b80e64d1
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA · Luz Marina Marin Daza20090001colombia/S8164286948/20153,21638.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Maria Aracely Santillana Aristizabal20050002colombia/S8164286948/20152,68031.8%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Mary Luz Quintero Duque20090002colombia/S8164286948/20152,53330%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Retirado (A)18490002colombia/S8164286948/201530%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

80.480–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=1.8105076085749197, oldest_gap=6.356736242884249, previous_gap=7.2757475083056455

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

49.81percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[5.242696878818172,0,28.501610574253025,0,0,0,0,0,0.5442630234366322,0,65.71142952349217],[31.982281284606866,0,0,0,23.067552602436322,0,0,0,0,0,44.95016611295681],[0.03557874762808349,0,31.783681214421254,0,0,30.04032258064516,0,0,0,0,38.1404174573055]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

61.82percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[5.242696878818172,0,28.501610574253025,0,0,0,0,0,0.5442630234366322,0,65.71142952349217],[31.982281284606866,0,0,0,23.067552602436322,0,0,0,0,0,44.95016611295681],[0.03557874762808349,0,31.783681214421254,0,0,30.04032258064516,0,0,0,0,38.1404174573055]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

55.82percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[5.242696878818172,0,28.501610574253025,0,0,0,0,0,0.5442630234366322,0,65.71142952349217],[31.982281284606866,0,0,0,23.067552602436322,0,0,0,0,0,44.95016611295681],[0.03557874762808349,0,31.783681214421254,0,0,30.04032258064516,0,0,0,0,38.1404174573055]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “San Carlos — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-05649. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.