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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Sabaneta — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Sabaneta / Antioquia · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-05631

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Sabaneta / Antioquia
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-b7a460d3752310915f7e4139
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • ALDER CRUZ ALCALDE38.8%
  • CREEMOS26.9%
  • COALICION LA SABANETA QUE QUEREMOS19.9%
  • LA NUEVA SABANETA5.2%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE3.8%
  • PACTO HISTORICO COLOMBIA PUEDE2.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE SALVACION NACIONAL - MSN1.9%
  • PARTIDO POLITICO DIGNIDAD0.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO NUEVA FUERZA DEMOCRATICA0.6%
Results for event-d0641b1e0d17bf49da61b3e5
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALDER CRUZ ALCALDE · Alder James Cruz Ocampo20230048colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202319,94038.8%UnknownRecorded
CREEMOS · Ivan Alonso Montoya Urrego20150003colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202313,83626.9%UnknownRecorded
COALICION LA SABANETA QUE QUEREMOS · Juan Carlos Bustamante Agudelo20230798colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202310,21719.9%UnknownRecorded
LA NUEVA SABANETA · Yuly Paola Quintero Londoño20231453colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232,6855.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Oscar Daniel Galeano Tamayo20130001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,9523.8%UnknownRecorded
PACTO HISTORICO COLOMBIA PUEDE · Efrain Jose Martinez Meneses20231623colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,0802.1%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO DE SALVACION NACIONAL - MSN · Gabriel Angel Alvarez Rua19900001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20239721.9%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO POLITICO DIGNIDAD · Carlos Andres Londoño Marulanda20200001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20234230.8%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO NUEVA FUERZA DEMOCRATICA · Gonzalo Arango Medina19900002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232940.6%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE SABANETA-ANT. SGC SOMOS SABANETA - PARTIDO LIBERAL - PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL Y PARTIDO COLOMBIA JUSTA LIBRES - "SOMOS SABANETA"50.7%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE49.3%
Results for event-c48cda4a4de40aa756b0c4dc
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
COALICION ALCALDIA DE SABANETA-ANT. SGC SOMOS SABANETA - PARTIDO LIBERAL - PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL Y PARTIDO COLOMBIA JUSTA LIBRES - "SOMOS SABANETA" · Santiago Montoya Montoya20190515colombia/S67eb704c85/201919,49150.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Carlos Mario Cuartas Palacio20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/201918,91649.3%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE62.7%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO32.6%
  • POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO2.6%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI2.1%
Results for event-51cc112d6ef957e542646902
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Ivan Alonso Montoya Urrego20130001colombia/S8164286948/201519,88362.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Hugo Andres Diaz Villa18490002colombia/S8164286948/201510,34132.6%UnknownRecorded
POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO · Maria Alejandra Quiros Velez20050001colombia/S8164286948/20158262.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Cesar Augusto Giraldo Ceballos19910006colombia/S8164286948/20156792.1%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

47.090–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=11.875717426409079, oldest_gap=30.073434397554287, previous_gap=1.4971229203009813

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

45.45percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,3.7977392556275413,0,0,0,0,0,96.20226074437245],[0,0,0,0,49.25143853984951,0,0,0,0,0,50.74856146015049],[32.59163541239875,0,0,0,62.66506980995304,0,2.1399981089854707,0,2.6032966686627375,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

50.75percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,3.7977392556275413,0,0,0,0,0,96.20226074437245],[0,0,0,0,49.25143853984951,0,0,0,0,0,50.74856146015049],[32.59163541239875,0,0,0,62.66506980995304,0,2.1399981089854707,0,2.6032966686627375,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

48.1percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,3.7977392556275413,0,0,0,0,0,96.20226074437245],[0,0,0,0,49.25143853984951,0,0,0,0,0,50.74856146015049],[32.59163541239875,0,0,0,62.66506980995304,0,2.1399981089854707,0,2.6032966686627375,0,0]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Sabaneta — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-05631. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.