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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Peñol — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Peñol / Antioquia · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-05541

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Peñol / Antioquia
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-74d057dd5892ef6066f6b6b7
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • AVANCEMOS POR EL PEÑOL41.8%
  • EL PEÑOL NOS UNE29.8%
  • + RAZONES PARA AVANZAR28.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE SALVACION NACIONAL - MSN0.1%
Results for event-a714cb9343da2021fd2521eb
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
AVANCEMOS POR EL PEÑOL · Sandra Arelis Duque Velasquez20230141colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20234,60441.8%UnknownRecorded
EL PEÑOL NOS UNE · Yeison Rolando Valderrama Buritica20231142colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20233,28929.8%UnknownRecorded
+ RAZONES PARA AVANZAR · Alex Giraldo Montoya20230014colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20233,11628.3%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO DE SALVACION NACIONAL - MSN · Omar Anibal Orozco Ramirez19900001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023140.1%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U39.2%
  • G.S.C UNIDOS POR EL PEÑOL33.4%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE13.2%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE PEÑOL-ANT. PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL - ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE Y MOVIMIENTO MAIS - "AVANZA PEÑOL"7.0%
  • PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE4.2%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE2.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AFROCOLOMBIANA - ADA - MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AMPLIA0.4%
Results for event-d48a76ea85030cf678b017ef
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Sorany Andrea Marin Marin20050002colombia/S67eb704c85/20193,80639.2%UnknownRecorded
G.S.C UNIDOS POR EL PEÑOL · John Dairo Duque Zuluaga20190505colombia/S67eb704c85/20193,23933.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Alex Giraldo Montoya20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,28013.2%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE PEÑOL-ANT. PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL - ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE Y MOVIMIENTO MAIS - "AVANZA PEÑOL" · Damian Garces Restrepo20190401colombia/S67eb704c85/20196767%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE · Francy Lineidy Ramirez Arbelaez20180046colombia/S67eb704c85/20194064.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Luis Guillermo Ciro Vergara20090002colombia/S67eb704c85/20192582.7%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AFROCOLOMBIANA - ADA - MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AMPLIA · Jose Omar Garcia Garcia20180047colombia/S67eb704c85/2019360.4%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO34.0%
  • PUEDO EL PEÑOL UNIDO POR LA EDUCACION, EL DESARROLLO Y LAS OPORTUNIDADES32.9%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO22.7%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO5.4%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE4.6%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE0.3%
Results for event-e5d765672e8a8d740faa15f9
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Jose Cirilo Henao Jaramillo20030001colombia/S8164286948/20153,19634%UnknownRecorded
PUEDO EL PEÑOL UNIDO POR LA EDUCACION, EL DESARROLLO Y LAS OPORTUNIDADES · John Dairo Duque Zuluaga20150029colombia/S8164286948/20153,09132.9%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Yony Albeiro Ramirez Castro18480001colombia/S8164286948/20152,13622.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Yeison Rolando Valderrama Buritica18490002colombia/S8164286948/20155115.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Alonso Hernan Rivera Galeano20130001colombia/S8164286948/20154314.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Luis Guillermo Ciro Vergara20090002colombia/S8164286948/2015270.3%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

54.890–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=11.929601741812572, oldest_gap=1.1179727427597967, previous_gap=5.844758272343057

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,[0,0,39.23306875579837,0,13.194516029275333,2.6595196371508094,0,0,0,0,44.91289557777549],[5.440800681431005,22.7427597955707,0,34.028960817717206,4.589011925042589,0.28747870528109026,0,0,0,0,32.91098807495741]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

62.21percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,[0,0,39.23306875579837,0,13.194516029275333,2.6595196371508094,0,0,0,0,44.91289557777549],[5.440800681431005,22.7427597955707,0,34.028960817717206,4.589011925042589,0.28747870528109026,0,0,0,0,32.91098807495741]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,[0,0,39.23306875579837,0,13.194516029275333,2.6595196371508094,0,0,0,0,44.91289557777549],[5.440800681431005,22.7427597955707,0,34.028960817717206,4.589011925042589,0.28747870528109026,0,0,0,0,32.91098807495741]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Peñol — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-05541. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.