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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Mutata — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Mutata / Antioquia · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-05480

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Mutata / Antioquia
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-7c178ce9d12d7417d231a7b2
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • MUTATA... LIDER37.0%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE23.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLITICO COLOMBIA HUMANA21.9%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO8.2%
  • MUTATA SOMOS TODOS3.7%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI2.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE SALVACION NACIONAL - MSN2.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS1.5%
Results for event-a2e16ae338888743aa4e7726
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MUTATA... LIDER · Jairo Enrique Ortiz Palacios20231567colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20233,21337%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Jaime Andres Londoño20130001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232,01123.2%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO POLITICO COLOMBIA HUMANA · Julian Andres Higuita19690001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,90321.9%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Arnol Antonio Renteria Sanchez18490002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20237118.2%UnknownRecorded
MUTATA SOMOS TODOS · Helver Perea Cuesta20231566colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20233223.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Hernan Dario Perez Viloria19910006colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232222.6%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO DE SALVACION NACIONAL - MSN · Beatriz Elena Carmona Higuita19900001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231712%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS · Euliser Fernando Ramos Paternina20130002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231331.5%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE48.9%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE MUTATA-ANT. PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL - PARTIDO LIBERAL - PARTIDO DE LA U - PARTIDO CONSERVADOR - ALIANZA SOCIAL INDIGENA - PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE Y MOVIMIENTO AICO - "TODOS UNIDOS POR MUTATA"38.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS6.9%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE6.2%
Results for event-a32e37f377e15a0c0dd4f70f
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Maria Esilda Palacios Giraldo20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/20193,24448.9%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE MUTATA-ANT. PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL - PARTIDO LIBERAL - PARTIDO DE LA U - PARTIDO CONSERVADOR - ALIANZA SOCIAL INDIGENA - PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE Y MOVIMIENTO AICO - "TODOS UNIDOS POR MUTATA" · Richar Lexit Guevara Soto20190500colombia/S67eb704c85/20192,52438%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS · Jaime Dario Lopez Duque20130002colombia/S67eb704c85/20194556.9%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Helver Perea Cuesta20090002colombia/S67eb704c85/20194116.2%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO34.5%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE MUTATA. PARTIDO LIBERAL Y PARTIDO CONSERVADOR30.6%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE22.3%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U10.9%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE1.6%
  • UNION PATRIOTICA - UP0.1%
Results for event-baa27aeccc49ad5584e2ac9a
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Jairo Enrique Ortiz Palacios20030001colombia/S8164286948/20152,35534.5%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE MUTATA. PARTIDO LIBERAL Y PARTIDO CONSERVADOR · Roosvelt Jair Ospina Sepulveda20150027colombia/S8164286948/20152,09130.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Silvio Rivas Arcos20090002colombia/S8164286948/20151,52322.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Carlos Mario Arias Quiroz20050002colombia/S8164286948/201574510.9%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Jesus Roberto Sepulveda20130001colombia/S8164286948/20151061.6%UnknownRecorded
UNION PATRIOTICA - UP · Oscar Antonio Calle Guzman19850001colombia/S8164286948/201580.1%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

40.270–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=13.838360580244068, oldest_gap=3.8664323374340945, previous_gap=10.85318058486584

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

37.27percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[8.18558600046051,0,0,0,23.152198940824317,0,2.5558369790467417,1.531199631591066,0,0,64.57517844807737],[0,0,0,0,48.89960807958999,6.195357250527585,0,6.858607175158276,0,0,38.04642749472415],[0,0,10.91095489162273,34.49033391915641,1.552431165787932,22.305213825424723,0,0,0,0,30.7410661980082]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

61.51percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[8.18558600046051,0,0,0,23.152198940824317,0,2.5558369790467417,1.531199631591066,0,0,64.57517844807737],[0,0,0,0,48.89960807958999,6.195357250527585,0,6.858607175158276,0,0,38.04642749472415],[0,0,10.91095489162273,34.49033391915641,1.552431165787932,22.305213825424723,0,0,0,0,30.7410661980082]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

49.39percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[8.18558600046051,0,0,0,23.152198940824317,0,2.5558369790467417,1.531199631591066,0,0,64.57517844807737],[0,0,0,0,48.89960807958999,6.195357250527585,0,6.858607175158276,0,0,38.04642749472415],[0,0,10.91095489162273,34.49033391915641,1.552431165787932,22.305213825424723,0,0,0,0,30.7410661980082]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Mutata — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-05480. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.