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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Jardin — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Jardin / Antioquia · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-05364

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Jardin / Antioquia
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-873a9ef69769f8a3e63c7c48
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • COALICION POLITICA Y PROGRAMATICA: UNIDOS, SI ES POSIBLE36.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO NUEVO LIBERALISMO31.5%
  • POR UN JARDIN CON FUTURO,CUENTO CON USTED15.1%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO14.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE SALVACION NACIONAL - MSN2.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLITICO COLOMBIA HUMANA0.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS0.1%
Results for event-575f323d4fee1d482b9e8ae0
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
COALICION POLITICA Y PROGRAMATICA: UNIDOS, SI ES POSIBLE · Claudia Yaneth Naranjo Agudelo20230845colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232,86136.6%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO NUEVO LIBERALISMO · Juan Carlos Rendon Betancur19790001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232,46831.5%UnknownRecorded
POR UN JARDIN CON FUTURO,CUENTO CON USTED · Edwin Rolando Rendon Rendon20231776colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,18115.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Alvaro Anibal Carvajal Ochoa18490002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,09614%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO DE SALVACION NACIONAL - MSN · Mario Alberto Uribe Quiceno19900001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232022.6%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO POLITICO COLOMBIA HUMANA · William Alberto Osorio Zapata19690001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023130.2%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS · Jose Leon Dan Yagari Yagari20130002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202340.1%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE53.1%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U22.1%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO17.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS7.6%
Results for event-478c86e102dcb90d7a39c220
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Hector Jaime Rendon Osorio20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/20194,18153.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Luis Roberto Munera Agudelo20050002colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,73822.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Alvaro Anibal Carvajal Ochoa18490002colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,36217.3%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS · Freddy Alonso Tascon Niaza20130002colombia/S67eb704c85/20195957.6%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO51.1%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE48.9%
Results for event-e1ac98a3f89162e7b02bdb94
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · William Enrique Rendon Agudelo18490002colombia/S8164286948/20154,05351.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Hector Jaime Rendon Osorio20130001colombia/S8164286948/20153,87848.9%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

37.30–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=5.022364217252399, oldest_gap=2.2065313327449303, previous_gap=31.01828339258507

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

85.94percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[14.006389776357828,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.051118210862619806,0,0,85.94249201277957],[17.29304215337735,0,22.067039106145252,0,53.08532249873032,0,0,7.554596241747079,0,0,0],[51.103265666372465,0,0,0,48.896734333627535,0,0,0,0,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

33.81percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[14.006389776357828,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.051118210862619806,0,0,85.94249201277957],[17.29304215337735,0,22.067039106145252,0,53.08532249873032,0,0,7.554596241747079,0,0,0],[51.103265666372465,0,0,0,48.896734333627535,0,0,0,0,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

59.88percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[14.006389776357828,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.051118210862619806,0,0,85.94249201277957],[17.29304215337735,0,22.067039106145252,0,53.08532249873032,0,0,7.554596241747079,0,0,0],[51.103265666372465,0,0,0,48.896734333627535,0,0,0,0,0,0]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Jardin — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-05364. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.