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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Heliconia — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Heliconia / Antioquia · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-05347

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Heliconia / Antioquia
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-348983b621423810edace313
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE52.7%
  • HELICONIA, JUNTOS AVANCEMOS47.3%
Results for event-15c8ce74727c404837efb622
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Jorge Alexander Alvarez Arango20090002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232,23052.7%UnknownRecorded
HELICONIA, JUNTOS AVANCEMOS · Arley David Bedoya Penagos20231335colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,99947.3%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO50.1%
  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO42.7%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE6.7%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U0.5%
Results for event-f9870901e06732568adb8132
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · John Fredy Ortiz Tabares18480001colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,86650.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Jorge Alexander Alvarez Arango20030001colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,59142.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Elkin Andres Romero20090002colombia/S67eb704c85/20192516.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Andres Ibarra20050002colombia/S67eb704c85/2019200.5%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO59.3%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE40.2%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U0.5%
Results for event-25655f9d41ae138108b227ac
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Argeni De Jesus Taborda Ortiz18480001colombia/S8164286948/20152,21059.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Beatriz Elena Sanchez20130001colombia/S8164286948/20151,49740.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Juan David Chanci Rada20050002colombia/S8164286948/2015170.5%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

62.980–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=5.462284227949866, oldest_gap=19.14607948442535, previous_gap=7.3766094420600865

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

93.27percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,0,52.73114211397493,0,0,0,0,47.26885788602507],[0,50.05364806866953,0.5364806866952789,42.677038626609445,0,6.732832618025751,0,0,0,0,0],[0,59.34479054779807,0.4564983888292159,0,40.19871106337272,0,0,0,0,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

49.49percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,0,52.73114211397493,0,0,0,0,47.26885788602507],[0,50.05364806866953,0.5364806866952789,42.677038626609445,0,6.732832618025751,0,0,0,0,0],[0,59.34479054779807,0.4564983888292159,0,40.19871106337272,0,0,0,0,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

71.38percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,0,52.73114211397493,0,0,0,0,47.26885788602507],[0,50.05364806866953,0.5364806866952789,42.677038626609445,0,6.732832618025751,0,0,0,0,0],[0,59.34479054779807,0.4564983888292159,0,40.19871106337272,0,0,0,0,0,0]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Heliconia — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-05347. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.