Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Guatape — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Guatape / Antioquia · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-05321

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Guatape / Antioquia
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-8231506919b58340738f6b03
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • JUNTOS CONSTRUIMOS61.4%
  • COALICION DEMOCRATICA GUATAPE EVOLUCIONA27.1%
  • CEDE party code 202300048.1%
  • PROYECTO GUATAPE3.4%
Results for event-60aa17bf71dc657fc1799a0c
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
JUNTOS CONSTRUIMOS · David Esteban Franco Vallejo20231372colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20233,70761.4%UnknownRecorded
COALICION DEMOCRATICA GUATAPE EVOLUCIONA · Daisy Cristina Martinez Lopez20230750colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,63927.1%UnknownRecorded
CEDE party code 20230004 · Dairo Alberto Mesa Villegas20230004colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20234888.1%UnknownRecorded
PROYECTO GUATAPE · Yomaira Rosales Quintero20231812colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232083.4%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE GUATAPE-ANT. PARTIDO LIBERAL - ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE Y PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL - "EMPRENDAMOS JUNTOS GUATAPE"42.8%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE32.9%
  • G.S.C VAMOS GUATAPE21.5%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO2.7%
Results for event-fdf04ad92a9adb5f4801b01e
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
COALICION ALCALDIA DE GUATAPE-ANT. PARTIDO LIBERAL - ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE Y PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL - "EMPRENDAMOS JUNTOS GUATAPE" · Juan Sebastian Perez Florez20190484colombia/S67eb704c85/20192,17942.8%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Ivan Jairo Garcia Giraldo20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,67632.9%UnknownRecorded
G.S.C VAMOS GUATAPE · Marleny Garcia Ospina20190112colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,09621.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Maria Margarita Jimenez Zuluaga18490002colombia/S67eb704c85/20191382.7%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE39.6%
  • GUATAPE SOCIAL36.1%
  • GRAN COALICION DEMOCRATICA24.3%
Results for event-8974ef75401e7bd32276dfbb
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Hernan Dario Urrea Castaño20130001colombia/S8164286948/20151,81739.6%UnknownRecorded
GUATAPE SOCIAL · Elmer Gustavo Arismendy Florez20150020colombia/S8164286948/20151,65836.1%UnknownRecorded
GRAN COALICION DEMOCRATICA · Rodrigo Ancizar Giraldo Franco20150021colombia/S8164286948/20151,11324.3%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

0 (recorded zero)0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=34.227077126779214, oldest_gap=3.465562336530077, previous_gap=9.884063666732168

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,[2.7117311849086265,0,0,0,32.933778738455494,0,0,0,0,0,64.35449007663588],[0,0,0,0,39.60331299040976,0,0,0,0,0,60.39668700959024]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

6.67percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,[2.7117311849086265,0,0,0,32.933778738455494,0,0,0,0,0,64.35449007663588],[0,0,0,0,39.60331299040976,0,0,0,0,0,60.39668700959024]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,[2.7117311849086265,0,0,0,32.933778738455494,0,0,0,0,0,64.35449007663588],[0,0,0,0,39.60331299040976,0,0,0,0,0,60.39668700959024]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Guatape — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-05321. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.