Office briefing
Guarne — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Colombia · Guarne / Antioquia · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-05318
Read the complete original research briefing
Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- Guarne / Antioquia
- Next election
- 2027-10-31
- Linked upcoming event
- next-393fa3bc04d68a9da12b6cda
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes
- POR TODO LO QUE NOS UNE23.4%
- PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI22.5%
- PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE11.5%
- PARTIDO COLOMBIA JUSTA LIBRES8.3%
- PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO7.0%
- JUNTOS TRANSFORMAMOS5.6%
- MOVIMIENTO DE SALVACION NACIONAL - MSN4.7%
- CEDE party code 202300014.5%
- PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE4.2%
- PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO3.1%
- MOVIMIENTO NUEVA FUERZA DEMOCRATICA2.4%
- PACTO HISTORICO2.1%
- MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS0.7%
- PARTIDO POLITICO DIGNIDAD0.1%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR TODO LO QUE NOS UNE · Diego Mauricio Grisales Gallego | 20231764colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 6,277 | 23.4% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Luis Enrique Carvajal Marin | 19910006colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 6,011 | 22.5% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Diana Francedy Carvajal Zapata | 20090002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 3,066 | 11.5% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO COLOMBIA JUSTA LIBRES · Maria Camila Osorno Isaza | 20170001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 2,216 | 8.3% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Sneyder Willington Quiceno Marin | 18490002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 1,886 | 7% | Unknown | Recorded |
| JUNTOS TRANSFORMAMOS · Carlos Adrian Ospina Hurtado | 20231427colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 1,498 | 5.6% | Unknown | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE SALVACION NACIONAL - MSN · Mara Juan Esteban Duque Zapata | 19900001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 1,262 | 4.7% | Unknown | Recorded |
| CEDE party code 20230001 · Jose Oliverio Cano Gallego | 20230001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 1,207 | 4.5% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE · Andres Felipe Posada Zapata | 20180046colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 1,125 | 4.2% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Esteban Gomez Zapata | 20030001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 830 | 3.1% | Unknown | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO NUEVA FUERZA DEMOCRATICA · Diego Alexander Arias Sanchez | 19900002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 639 | 2.4% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PACTO HISTORICO · Luis Ignacio Orrego Delgado | 20231615colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 549 | 2.1% | Unknown | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS · Carlos Alberto Zuleta Hincapie | 20130002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 191 | 0.7% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO POLITICO DIGNIDAD · Beltran Rodrigo Herrera Montoya | 20200001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 18 | 0.1% | Unknown | Recorded |
2019
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes
- G.S.C PASION POR GUARNE27.5%
- COALICION ALCALDIA DE GUARNE-ANT. PARTIDO LIBERAL Y PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE - "TU SUEÑO ES MI COMPROMISO"17.2%
- PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO13.6%
- PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U12.4%
- PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI11.6%
- MOVIMIENTO AUTORIDADES INDIGENAS DE COLOMBIA - AICO10.7%
- COALICION ALCALDIA DE GUARNE-ANT. PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO Y PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL - "PODEMOS SER MAS"5.5%
- PARTIDO DE REIVINDICACION ETNICA - PRE0.8%
- MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS0.7%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.S.C PASION POR GUARNE · Marcelo Betancur Rivera | 20190111colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 6,241 | 27.5% | Unknown | Recorded |
| COALICION ALCALDIA DE GUARNE-ANT. PARTIDO LIBERAL Y PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE - "TU SUEÑO ES MI COMPROMISO" · Diego Mauricio Grisales Gallego | 20190482colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 3,890 | 17.2% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Victor Hugo Herrera Rivera | 18490002colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 3,089 | 13.6% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Luis Eduardo Ochoa Londoño | 20050002colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 2,802 | 12.4% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Luis Enrique Carvajal Marin | 19910006colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 2,618 | 11.6% | Unknown | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO AUTORIDADES INDIGENAS DE COLOMBIA - AICO · Eduard Santiago Ospina | 19910001colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 2,417 | 10.7% | Unknown | Recorded |
| COALICION ALCALDIA DE GUARNE-ANT. PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO Y PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL - "PODEMOS SER MAS" · Julian Osorno Cardona | 20190483colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 1,248 | 5.5% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO DE REIVINDICACION ETNICA - PRE · Carlos Alberto Zuleta Hincapie | 20180004colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 184 | 0.8% | Unknown | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS · Leonardo Fabio Agudelo Castaño | 20130002colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 169 | 0.7% | Unknown | Recorded |
2015
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes
- COALICION ALCALDIA DE GUARNE. PARTIDO CONSERVADOR Y PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA42.6%
- PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U31.5%
- PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO22.5%
- PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE3.3%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COALICION ALCALDIA DE GUARNE. PARTIDO CONSERVADOR Y PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA · Sneyder Willington Quiceno Marin | 20150019colombia/S8164286948/2015 | 8,173 | 42.6% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Eduard Santiago Ospina | 20050002colombia/S8164286948/2015 | 6,048 | 31.5% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Diego Mauricio Grisales Gallego | 18480001colombia/S8164286948/2015 | 4,312 | 22.5% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Marion Zulma Moreno Gonzalez | 20130001colombia/S8164286948/2015 | 642 | 3.3% | Unknown | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI75.910–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=0.9934640522875817, oldest_gap=11.082138200782268, previous_gap=10.376026127637036
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility29.66percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[7.043884220354808,0,0,3.099906629318394,0,11.450980392156863,22.4500466853408,0.7133520074696545,0,0,55.24183006535947],[13.633153852943773,0,12.366493070880042,0,0,0,11.554417865654514,0.7458734221908376,0,10.667313972989673,51.03274781534116],[0,22.48761408083442,31.541069100391134,0,3.348109517601043,0,0,0,0,0,42.6232073011734]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility45.01percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[7.043884220354808,0,0,3.099906629318394,0,11.450980392156863,22.4500466853408,0.7133520074696545,0,0,55.24183006535947],[13.633153852943773,0,12.366493070880042,0,0,0,11.554417865654514,0.7458734221908376,0,10.667313972989673,51.03274781534116],[0,22.48761408083442,31.541069100391134,0,3.348109517601043,0,0,0,0,0,42.6232073011734]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility37.33percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[7.043884220354808,0,0,3.099906629318394,0,11.450980392156863,22.4500466853408,0.7133520074696545,0,0,55.24183006535947],[13.633153852943773,0,12.366493070880042,0,0,0,11.554417865654514,0.7458734221908376,0,10.667313972989673,51.03274781534116],[0,22.48761408083442,31.541069100391134,0,3.348109517601043,0,0,0,0,0,42.6232073011734]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.
Sources
- Colombia: https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW · rights unknown
- Colombia: https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB · rights unknown
- Colombia: https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K · rights unknown
- Colombia: CEDE Colombia 2023 alcaldia · rights unknown
- Colombia: CEDE Colombia 2019 alcaldia · rights unknown
- Colombia: CEDE Colombia 2015 alcaldia · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “Guarne — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-05318. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.