Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Dabeiba — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Dabeiba / Antioquia · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-05234

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Dabeiba / Antioquia
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-9580fd6b9496d91dc0022755
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PRIMERO DABEIBA55.7%
  • COALICION DABEIBA UNIDOS38.9%
  • PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE5.0%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U0.5%
Results for event-52e6555c7ddd19b344148e6d
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PRIMERO DABEIBA · Daniel Higuita Herrera20231800colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20236,15955.7%UnknownRecorded
COALICION DABEIBA UNIDOS · Miguel Ignacio Restrepo20230742colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20234,29938.9%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE · Nairon De Jesus Durango Rodriguez20180046colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20235505%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Gloria Adveni Usuga Velez20050002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023560.5%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • G.S.C UNIDOS POR DABEIBA43.9%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO27.9%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE DABEIBA-ANT. PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL Y ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - "SI PODEMOS"25.2%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE2.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AFROCOLOMBIANA - ADA - MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AMPLIA0.4%
Results for event-226004ae1d8aa3b985c04100
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
G.S.C UNIDOS POR DABEIBA · Leyton Urrego Durango20190103colombia/S67eb704c85/20194,53043.9%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Daniel Higuita Herrera18480001colombia/S67eb704c85/20192,88027.9%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE DABEIBA-ANT. PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL Y ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - "SI PODEMOS" · Nairon De Jesus Durango Rodriguez20190472colombia/S67eb704c85/20192,60325.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Oscar Ramiro Ocampo Gaviria20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/20192612.5%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AFROCOLOMBIANA - ADA - MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AMPLIA · Carlos Andres Palacio Moreno20180047colombia/S67eb704c85/2019370.4%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO43.6%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U27.0%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI22.4%
  • PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA6.9%
Results for event-4e8d12bc36db86e8667c991e
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Antonio Jose Lara Varelas18480001colombia/S8164286948/20153,74343.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Leyton Urrego Durango20050002colombia/S8164286948/20152,32027%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Nairon De Jesus Durango Rodriguez19910006colombia/S8164286948/20151,92522.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA · Omar Albeiro Anaya Villarreal20090001colombia/S8164286948/20155936.9%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

17.270–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=16.811279826464208, oldest_gap=16.583148817154175, previous_gap=16.002327611288916

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

30.46percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,0.5061460592913956,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,99.4938539407086],[0,27.931335466977014,0,0,2.531277276694792,0,0,0,0,0,69.5373872563282],[0,43.61962475235986,27.036475935205686,0,0,0,22.433282834168512,0,0,0,6.910616478265936]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

65.16percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,0.5061460592913956,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,99.4938539407086],[0,27.931335466977014,0,0,2.531277276694792,0,0,0,0,0,69.5373872563282],[0,43.61962475235986,27.036475935205686,0,0,0,22.433282834168512,0,0,0,6.910616478265936]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

47.81percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,0.5061460592913956,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,99.4938539407086],[0,27.931335466977014,0,0,2.531277276694792,0,0,0,0,0,69.5373872563282],[0,43.61962475235986,27.036475935205686,0,0,0,22.433282834168512,0,0,0,6.910616478265936]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Dabeiba — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-05234. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.