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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Betulia — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Betulia / Antioquia · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-05093

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Betulia / Antioquia
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-a6e3c492a0ba63d0b07fdc4e
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • BETULIA AVANZA51.3%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO29.8%
  • BETULIA CONTIGO PODEMOS18.8%
Results for event-7546074dfbac48c917631081
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
BETULIA AVANZA · Nestor Camilo Serna Hernandez20230165colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20233,32551.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Gabriel Jamer Blandon Ibarra18480001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,93129.8%UnknownRecorded
BETULIA CONTIGO PODEMOS · Benjamin Alonso Suarez Castillo20230166colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,22018.8%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE BETULIA-ANT. PARTIDO DE LA U - PARTIDO CONSERVADOR - PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL Y ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - "PASION POR BETULIA"57.9%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE24.3%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE12.8%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE BETULIA-ANT. PARTIDO LIBERAL Y PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE - "LA FUERZA DE LA UNION"5.0%
Results for event-65ab82c381c2ba5435af6a59
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
COALICION ALCALDIA DE BETULIA-ANT. PARTIDO DE LA U - PARTIDO CONSERVADOR - PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL Y ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - "PASION POR BETULIA" · Juan Manuel Lema Hurtado20190455colombia/S67eb704c85/20193,77357.9%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Leon Dario Velez Yepes20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,58224.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Nestor Camilo Serna Hernandez20090002colombia/S67eb704c85/201983812.8%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE BETULIA-ANT. PARTIDO LIBERAL Y PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE - "LA FUERZA DE LA UNION" · Rafael Antonio Correa Yepes20190454colombia/S67eb704c85/20193295%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO47.5%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO39.1%
  • PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA13.3%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE0.1%
Results for event-870d26482f4550f69da6d39d
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Benjamin Alonso Suarez Castillo18490002colombia/S8164286948/20153,26447.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Ramon Antonio Lema Hurtado18480001colombia/S8164286948/20152,69239.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA · Rafael Antonio Correa Yepes20090001colombia/S8164286948/201591813.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Retirado (A)20130001colombia/S8164286948/201540.1%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

0 (recorded zero)0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=21.525633106856084, oldest_gap=8.31637103809247, previous_gap=33.593989573750385

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

37.11percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,29.817788758492895,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,70.1822112415071],[0,0,0,0,24.256363078810182,12.84881938055811,0,0,0,0,62.89481754063171],[47.455655713870314,39.139284675777844,0,0,0.05815644082582146,0,0,0,0,0,13.346903169526025]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

86.59percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,29.817788758492895,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,70.1822112415071],[0,0,0,0,24.256363078810182,12.84881938055811,0,0,0,0,62.89481754063171],[47.455655713870314,39.139284675777844,0,0,0.05815644082582146,0,0,0,0,0,13.346903169526025]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

61.85percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,29.817788758492895,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,70.1822112415071],[0,0,0,0,24.256363078810182,12.84881938055811,0,0,0,0,62.89481754063171],[47.455655713870314,39.139284675777844,0,0,0.05815644082582146,0,0,0,0,0,13.346903169526025]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Betulia — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-05093. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.