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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Argelia — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Argelia / Antioquia · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-05055

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Argelia / Antioquia
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-cae1133414e24f5e7c5bc400
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • UNIDOS EL DESARROLLO ES POSIBLE54.1%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO45.7%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE0.3%
Results for event-f09a18be45bcf22e5c900923
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
UNIDOS EL DESARROLLO ES POSIBLE · Diego Alexander Lopez Giraldo20232160colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232,29454.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Carlos Mario Buitrago Toro18490002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,93845.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Bairo Martinez Morales20090002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023120.3%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE51.1%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO45.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS3.1%
Results for event-90aed77efbf02560d2b34765
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Edwin Quintero Lopez20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/20192,03051.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Carlos Mario Buitrago Toro18490002colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,82245.8%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS · Jose Albeiro Gomez Toro20130002colombia/S67eb704c85/20191233.1%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE39.4%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE26.3%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U21.0%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO12.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS0.8%
  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO0.2%
Results for event-1cac69494f2e6aef21a1cab2
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Bairo Martinez Morales20090002colombia/S8164286948/20151,51439.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Jose Luis Granada Perez20130001colombia/S8164286948/20151,01026.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Jorge Ivan Cardona Zapata20050002colombia/S8164286948/201580821%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Carlos Mario Buitrago Toro18490002colombia/S8164286948/201547412.3%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS · Maria Celmira Salazar Gomez20130002colombia/S8164286948/2015300.8%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Alvaro Hernan Alvarez Sossa20030001colombia/S8164286948/201590.2%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

60.430–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=8.38831291234684, oldest_gap=13.107932379713915, previous_gap=5.232704402515722

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

54.34percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[45.66446748350613,0,0,0,0,0.2827521206409048,0,0,0,0,54.05278039585297],[45.83647798742138,0,0,0,51.069182389937104,0,0,3.0943396226415096,0,0,0],[12.327698309492847,0,21.014304291287385,0.2340702210663199,26.26788036410923,39.37581274382315,0,0.7802340702210663,0,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

60.62percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[45.66446748350613,0,0,0,0,0.2827521206409048,0,0,0,0,54.05278039585297],[45.83647798742138,0,0,0,51.069182389937104,0,0,3.0943396226415096,0,0,0],[12.327698309492847,0,21.014304291287385,0.2340702210663199,26.26788036410923,39.37581274382315,0,0.7802340702210663,0,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

57.48percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[45.66446748350613,0,0,0,0,0.2827521206409048,0,0,0,0,54.05278039585297],[45.83647798742138,0,0,0,51.069182389937104,0,0,3.0943396226415096,0,0,0],[12.327698309492847,0,21.014304291287385,0.2340702210663199,26.26788036410923,39.37581274382315,0,0.7802340702210663,0,0,0]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Argelia — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-05055. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.