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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Arboletes — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Arboletes / Antioquia · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-05051

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Arboletes / Antioquia
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-10fdcafbf22bc15ca1a6b913
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • ARBOLETES ASUNTO DE TODOS60.4%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U36.9%
  • CEDE party code 202300042.8%
Results for event-a184a856933337cefe014c38
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ARBOLETES ASUNTO DE TODOS · Alvaro Gonzalez Avila20230111colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20239,27660.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Jafet Londoño Monzon20050002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20235,66436.9%UnknownRecorded
CEDE party code 20230004 · Alex De Jesus Pajaro Mosquera20230004colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20234252.8%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE ARBOLETES-ANT. PARTIDO DE LA U Y PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - "UN GOBIERNO PARA TODOS"49.2%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE ARBOLETES-ANT. PARTIDO LIBERAL - PARTIDO CONSERVADOR - PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL - ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE Y PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE - "ARBOLETES ASUNTO DE TODOS"48.3%
  • PARTIDO DE REIVINDICACION ETNICA - PRE2.5%
Results for event-bff4afd91b64d1af17e937ea
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
COALICION ALCALDIA DE ARBOLETES-ANT. PARTIDO DE LA U Y PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - "UN GOBIERNO PARA TODOS" · Diana Stella Garrido Henao20190453colombia/S67eb704c85/20197,37549.2%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE ARBOLETES-ANT. PARTIDO LIBERAL - PARTIDO CONSERVADOR - PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL - ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE Y PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE - "ARBOLETES ASUNTO DE TODOS" · Alvaro Gonzalez Avila20190452colombia/S67eb704c85/20197,24948.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO DE REIVINDICACION ETNICA - PRE · Manuel Jose Petro Sanchez20180004colombia/S67eb704c85/20193812.5%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO38.5%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U33.7%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO22.7%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE4.9%
  • UNION PATRIOTICA - UP0.1%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO0.1%
Results for event-fee7d23843f7c560e79673d1
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Lorenzo Ii Acuña Romero20030001colombia/S8164286948/20154,80838.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Juan Carlos Adams Vellojin20050002colombia/S8164286948/20154,21233.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Alvaro Gonzalez Avila18480001colombia/S8164286948/20152,83822.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Francia Poo Madera20130001colombia/S8164286948/20156114.9%UnknownRecorded
UNION PATRIOTICA - UP · Carlos Andres Tordecilla Morales19850001colombia/S8164286948/2015130.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Jahira Milena Gomez Gonzalez18490002colombia/S8164286948/201580.1%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

25.830–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=23.507972665148067, oldest_gap=4.771817453963166, previous_gap=0.8397200933022333

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,36.8630003254149,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,63.1369996745851],null,[0.06405124099279423,22.722177742193754,33.72297838270617,38.49479583666933,4.8919135308246595,0,0,0,0,0,0.10408326661329063]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,36.8630003254149,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,63.1369996745851],null,[0.06405124099279423,22.722177742193754,33.72297838270617,38.49479583666933,4.8919135308246595,0,0,0,0,0,0.10408326661329063]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,36.8630003254149,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,63.1369996745851],null,[0.06405124099279423,22.722177742193754,33.72297838270617,38.49479583666933,4.8919135308246595,0,0,0,0,0,0.10408326661329063]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Arboletes — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-05051. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.