Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Medellin — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Medellin / Antioquia · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-05001

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Medellin / Antioquia
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-6919cfff509e606fd593a0ea
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • CREEMOS79.1%
  • INDEPENDIENTES10.9%
  • MEDELLIN NOS UNE3.1%
  • POR MEDELLIN1.5%
  • FUERZA CIUDADANA LA FUERZA DEL CAMBIO1.3%
  • PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE1.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO CUIDEMOS MEDELLIN0.7%
  • CEDE party code 202300030.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE SALVACION NACIONAL - MSN0.4%
  • PROPONEMOS POR MEDELLIN0.4%
  • DE FRENTE MOVIMIENTO LILIANISTA0.3%
  • POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO0.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AFROCOLOMBIANA - ADA - MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AMPLIA0.2%
  • SUMAMOS0.1%
Results for event-79e8ad755a2bdc86a3a8ed23
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
CREEMOS · Federico Andres Gutierrez Zuluaga20150003colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023697,91079.1%UnknownRecorded
INDEPENDIENTES · Juan Carlos Upegui Vanegas20190087colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202395,88310.9%UnknownRecorded
MEDELLIN NOS UNE · Albert Yordano Corredor Bustamante20231520colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202327,2613.1%UnknownRecorded
POR MEDELLIN · Maria Paulina Aguinaga Lezcano20231756colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202312,8361.5%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA CIUDADANA LA FUERZA DEL CAMBIO · Gilberto Tobon Sanin20150388colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202311,7761.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE · Rodolfo Andres Correa Vargas20180046colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202310,7071.2%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO CUIDEMOS MEDELLIN · Luis Bernardo Velez Montoya20231551colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20236,3700.7%UnknownRecorded
CEDE party code 20230003 · Deicy Elena Bermudez Hurtado20230003colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20234,1720.5%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO DE SALVACION NACIONAL - MSN · Juan Camilo Restrepo Gomez19900001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20233,9440.4%UnknownRecorded
PROPONEMOS POR MEDELLIN · Juan David Valderrama Lopez20231810colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20233,2140.4%UnknownRecorded
DE FRENTE MOVIMIENTO LILIANISTA · Liliana Maria Rendon Roldan20231074colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232,7490.3%UnknownRecorded
POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO · Carlos Alberto Ballesteros Baron20050001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232,6760.3%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AFROCOLOMBIANA - ADA - MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AMPLIA · Felipe Velez Roa20180047colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,7140.2%UnknownRecorded
SUMAMOS · Jaime Alberto Mejia Alvaran20232002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,1070.1%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • INDEPENDIENTES43.3%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE33.5%
  • G.S.C SEGUIMOS CONTANDO CON VOS13.5%
  • G.S.C TODOS JUNTOS3.2%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE2.0%
  • POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO1.4%
  • PARTIDO COLOMBIA JUSTA LIBRES1.3%
  • G.S.C MEDELLIN AVANZA1.0%
  • PARTIDO COLOMBIA HUMANA Y UNION PATRIOTICA0.4%
  • PARTIDO DE REIVINDICACION ETNICA - PRE0.2%
  • PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE0.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AFROCOLOMBIANA - ADA - MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AMPLIA0.2%
Results for event-72656077dafc0e0947ff0e55
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
INDEPENDIENTES · Daniel Quintero Calle20190087colombia/S67eb704c85/2019304,03443.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Alfredo Ramos20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/2019235,31933.5%UnknownRecorded
G.S.C SEGUIMOS CONTANDO CON VOS · Santiago Gomez20190088colombia/S67eb704c85/201995,13813.5%UnknownRecorded
G.S.C TODOS JUNTOS · Juan David Valderrama Lopez20190089colombia/S67eb704c85/201922,1953.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Beatriz Rave20090002colombia/S67eb704c85/201913,7532%UnknownRecorded
POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO · Victor Javier Correa Velez20050001colombia/S67eb704c85/20199,6701.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO COLOMBIA JUSTA LIBRES · Gemma Maria Mejia Izquierdo20170001colombia/S67eb704c85/20199,0391.3%UnknownRecorded
G.S.C MEDELLIN AVANZA · Juan Carlos Velez20190086colombia/S67eb704c85/20196,7091%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO COLOMBIA HUMANA Y UNION PATRIOTICA · Jairo Herran Vargas20190033colombia/S67eb704c85/20192,8290.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO DE REIVINDICACION ETNICA - PRE · Luis Guillermo Hoyos Meneses20180004colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,4280.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE · Jorge Orlando Gutierrez Serna20180046colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,2610.2%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AFROCOLOMBIANA - ADA - MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AMPLIA · Luis Fernando Muñoz Ramirez20180047colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,1160.2%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • CREEMOS38.3%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE36.8%
  • GRAN ALIANZA POR MEDELLIN17.4%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE MEDELLIN. PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE Y PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE5.8%
  • POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO1.4%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO0.2%
Results for event-d5404944cc76200354718635
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
CREEMOS · Federico Andres Gutierrez Zuluaga20150003colombia/S8164286948/2015246,22138.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Juan Carlos Roberto Velez Uribe20130001colombia/S8164286948/2015236,63236.8%UnknownRecorded
GRAN ALIANZA POR MEDELLIN · Gabriel Jaime Rico Betancur20150001colombia/S8164286948/2015111,79617.4%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE MEDELLIN. PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE Y PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE · Fabio Alonso Salazar Jaramillo20150002colombia/S8164286948/201537,2415.8%UnknownRecorded
POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO · Hector Manuel Hoyos Meneses20050001colombia/S8164286948/20158,9341.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Retirado (A)18480001colombia/S8164286948/20151,6060.2%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

0 (recorded zero)0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=68.23235133778147, oldest_gap=1.492613981289793, previous_gap=9.781619978049541

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

36.53percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.3032916666194426,0,99.69670833338057],[0,0,0,0,33.49779570129724,1.957747501391477,0,0,1.3765300907769638,0,63.16792670653432],[0,0.24998832557632739,0,0,36.83389629998599,0,0,0,1.3906573478822595,0,61.52545802655543]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

3.6percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.3032916666194426,0,99.69670833338057],[0,0,0,0,33.49779570129724,1.957747501391477,0,0,1.3765300907769638,0,63.16792670653432],[0,0.24998832557632739,0,0,36.83389629998599,0,0,0,1.3906573478822595,0,61.52545802655543]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

20.06percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.3032916666194426,0,99.69670833338057],[0,0,0,0,33.49779570129724,1.957747501391477,0,0,1.3765300907769638,0,63.16792670653432],[0,0.24998832557632739,0,0,36.83389629998599,0,0,0,1.3906573478822595,0,61.52545802655543]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Medellin — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-05001. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.