Brazil · TO
Tocantins — Governor
54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.
Historical competition
Competitiveness index 0.0 out of 100. Weighted top-two gap 34.3 percentage points. Margin dispersion 9.9 points.
Weights are 60%, 30%, 10%. This is a historical screen, not an incumbent-defeat forecast. Margin dispersion is not Pedersen party volatility.
Current government and control: Wanderlei Barbosa (Republicanos (partido político)); Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending; retrieved 12 Sep 2026. Current officeholder source. Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending Local government-risk forecast: unassessed.
National polling context: National presidential poll; context for subnational races — Datafolha; fieldwork 2026-09-01 to 2026-09-02. Sample 2,002; reported margin of error ±2.00 percentage points. Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose. Poll report
National polling context: National presidential approval; context for subnational races — AtlasIntel / Bloomberg; fieldwork 2026-07-22 to 2026-07-27. Sample 5,021; reported margin of error ±1.00 percentage points. Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Poll report
National polling context: National presidential approval; context for subnational races — AtlasIntel / Bloomberg; fieldwork 2026-08-25 to 2026-08-30. Sample 5,014; reported margin of error ±1.00 percentage points. Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points. Poll report
Last three governor election cycles are 2022, October 2018 and the 2018-06-03 special election completed 2018-06-24. The annulled 2014 return is retained only as archival evidence. Special first round and runoff are one event. Secondary full special return is available; primary certification remains pending.
Registry and evidence links: Source 1, Source 2, Source 3, Source 4
Electoral event evidence
Separate source records can belong to the same election cycle. Recounts, runoffs and void returns do not create additional cycles.
2022-10-02 · Decisive governor round 1
Coverage: Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status
Basis: Valid nominal votes
| Party or list | Candidate | Votes or marks | Vote share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REPUBLICANOS | WANDERLEI BARBOSA | 481,496 | 58.16% | — |
| PL | RONALDO DIMAS | 186,361 | 22.51% | — |
| PT | PAULO MOURÃO | 88,143 | 10.65% | — |
| PSD | IRAJÁ | 63,048 | 7.62% | — |
| PMB | CORONEL RICARDO MACEDO | 5,043 | 0.61% | — |
| PSOL | KAROL CHAVES | 2,494 | 0.30% | — |
| DC | DR LUCIANO DO OSWALDO CRUZ | 1,232 | 0.15% | — |
2018-10-07 · Decisive governor round 1
Coverage: Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status
Basis: Valid nominal votes
| Party or list | Candidate | Votes or marks | Vote share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHS | MAURO CARLESSE | 404,484 | 57.39% | — |
| PSB | CARLOS AMASTHA | 219,842 | 31.19% | — |
| REDE | MARLON REIS | 47,046 | 6.68% | — |
| PSL | CESAR SIMONI | 31,231 | 4.43% | — |
| PSOL | BERNADETE APARECIDA | 2,200 | 0.31% | — |
2018-06-03 · Special governor election replacing annulled 2014 contest
Coverage: Complete published candidate vector; primary final certification pending
Basis: Valid candidate votes in decisive second round
| Party or list | Candidate | Votes or marks | Vote share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHS | Mauro Carlesse | 368,553 | 75.14% | 1 |
| PR | Vicentinho Alves | 121,908 | 24.86% | 0 |
First round of the same election
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mauro Carlesse | PHS | 174,275 | 30.31% |
| Vicentinho Alves | PR | 127,758 | 22.22% |
| Carlos Amastha | PSB | 123,103 | 21.41% |
| Kátia Abreu | PDT | 90,033 | 15.66% |
| Márlon Reis | REDE | 56,952 | 9.91% |
| Marcos de Souza | PRTB | 2,794 | 0.49% |
| Mário Lúcio Avelar | PSOL | 0 | 0.00% |
; valid votes —; First-round source
2014-10-05 · Decisive governor round 1
Coverage: Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status; annulled result superseded by special election, archival only
Basis: Reported nominal + list counts (legacy 2014 fields)
| Party or list | Candidate | Votes or marks | Vote share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PMDB | MARCELO MIRANDA | 360,640 | 51.30% | — |
| SD | SANDOVAL CARDOSO | 314,392 | 44.72% | — |
| PROS | ATAÍDES OLIVEIRA | 24,874 | 3.54% | — |
| PCB | POTENGY | 1,873 | 0.27% | — |
| PSOL | EULA ANGELIM | 1,234 | 0.18% | — |
Snapshot 13 September 2026. Fixed election window 8 September 2026 to 8 March 2028. Record BR-TO-G.