Office briefing
Tocantins — State legislative assembly
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Brazil · Tocantins / TO · regional · State legislative assemblyBR-TO-A
Read the complete original research briefing
First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- Tocantins / TO
- Next election
- 2026-10-04
- Linked upcoming event
- next-46238422edb9e6bcbfa13a31
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2026-10-04 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2022-10-02
unknown · Legal certification not established · list votes
- REPUBLICANOS24.6%
- PL13.9%
- PSD13.3%
- UNIÃO8.0%
- PT5.0%
- PSB4.9%
- SOLIDARIEDADE4.4%
- CIDADANIA4.0%
- PSC3.8%
- PDT3.6%
- PC do B3.4%
- PSDB3.1%
- MDB2.6%
- PTB2.5%
- PV1.6%
- PATRIOTA0.7%
- PMB0.2%
- PRTB0.2%
- PSOL0.1%
- DC0.0%
- REDE0.0%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REPUBLICANOS | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 205,631 | 24.6% | 7 | Recorded |
| PL | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 116,003 | 13.9% | 4 | Recorded |
| PSD | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 110,585 | 13.3% | 3 | Recorded |
| UNIÃO | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 66,857 | 8% | 2 | Recorded |
| PT | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 41,384 | 5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PSB | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 40,946 | 4.9% | 1 | Recorded |
| SOLIDARIEDADE | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 36,483 | 4.4% | 1 | Recorded |
| CIDADANIA | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 33,356 | 4% | 1 | Recorded |
| PSC | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 31,886 | 3.8% | 1 | Recorded |
| PDT | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 29,962 | 3.6% | 1 | Recorded |
| PC do B | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 28,760 | 3.4% | 1 | Recorded |
| PSDB | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 26,247 | 3.1% | 1 | Recorded |
| MDB | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 21,744 | 2.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PTB | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 20,702 | 2.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PV | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 13,653 | 1.6% | 1 | Recorded |
| PATRIOTA | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 5,615 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PMB | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 1,753 | 0.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PRTB | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 1,470 | 0.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PSOL | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 798 | 0.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| DC | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 323 | 0% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| REDE | brazil/S5cd0a4c40e/2022 | 153 | 0% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2018-10-07
unknown · Legal certification not established · list votes
- MDB13.1%
- SOLIDARIEDADE10.3%
- PSDB8.5%
- PT7.6%
- PR5.9%
- PHS5.2%
- PSB5.2%
- PPS4.6%
- PROS3.9%
- PV3.4%
- PTC3.2%
- DEM3.2%
- PP2.8%
- PSL2.8%
- PRTB2.7%
- DC2.3%
- PDT2.2%
- PSC2.0%
- PRB1.5%
- PMN1.3%
- AVANTE1.3%
- PODE1.2%
- PSD1.2%
- PPL1.1%
- REDE0.8%
- PRP0.8%
- PC do B0.7%
- PMB0.7%
- PATRI0.3%
- PTB0.3%
- PSOL0.2%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDB | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 97,895 | 13.1% | 5 | Recorded |
| SOLIDARIEDADE | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 77,089 | 10.3% | 3 | Recorded |
| PSDB | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 63,377 | 8.5% | 2 | Recorded |
| PT | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 56,705 | 7.6% | 2 | Recorded |
| PR | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 43,857 | 5.9% | 1 | Recorded |
| PHS | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 38,751 | 5.2% | 1 | Recorded |
| PSB | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 38,665 | 5.2% | 1 | Recorded |
| PPS | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 34,136 | 4.6% | 1 | Recorded |
| PROS | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 29,149 | 3.9% | 1 | Recorded |
| PV | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 25,420 | 3.4% | 2 | Recorded |
| PTC | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 24,057 | 3.2% | 1 | Recorded |
| DEM | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 23,571 | 3.2% | 1 | Recorded |
| PP | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 20,579 | 2.8% | 1 | Recorded |
| PSL | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 20,538 | 2.8% | 1 | Recorded |
| PRTB | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 20,269 | 2.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| DC | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 17,432 | 2.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PDT | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 16,360 | 2.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PSC | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 14,645 | 2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PRB | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 11,205 | 1.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PMN | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 9,725 | 1.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| AVANTE | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 9,574 | 1.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PODE | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 9,091 | 1.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PSD | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 8,862 | 1.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PPL | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 7,964 | 1.1% | 1 | Recorded |
| REDE | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 6,050 | 0.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PRP | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 5,720 | 0.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PC do B | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 5,412 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PMB | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 5,157 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PATRI | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 2,178 | 0.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PTB | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 1,945 | 0.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PSOL | brazil/S0d7ac4a666/2018 | 1,260 | 0.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-10-05
unknown · Legal certification not established · list votes
- SD13.6%
- PT11.1%
- PMDB10.4%
- PSD8.0%
- PR7.4%
- PTB6.9%
- PSB5.9%
- PP5.5%
- PSDB5.0%
- PROS4.3%
- PPS4.1%
- DEM4.0%
- PDT2.1%
- PV2.0%
- PSL1.8%
- PHS1.7%
- PRB1.3%
- PRTB1.1%
- PTC1.0%
- PC do B0.8%
- PSC0.5%
- PSOL0.4%
- PRP0.3%
- PTN0.1%
- PT do B0.1%
- PSDC0.1%
- PPL0.1%
- PMN0.1%
- PCB0.1%
- PEN0.1%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 102,751 | 13.6% | 4 | Recorded |
| PT | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 84,018 | 11.1% | 3 | Recorded |
| PMDB | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 78,737 | 10.4% | 3 | Recorded |
| PSD | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 60,913 | 8% | 2 | Recorded |
| PR | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 55,622 | 7.4% | 2 | Recorded |
| PTB | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 51,918 | 6.9% | 2 | Recorded |
| PSB | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 44,395 | 5.9% | 1 | Recorded |
| PP | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 41,878 | 5.5% | 1 | Recorded |
| PSDB | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 38,023 | 5% | 1 | Recorded |
| PROS | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 32,653 | 4.3% | 1 | Recorded |
| PPS | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 30,716 | 4.1% | 1 | Recorded |
| DEM | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 29,918 | 4% | 1 | Recorded |
| PDT | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 15,949 | 2.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PV | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 15,376 | 2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PSL | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 13,600 | 1.8% | 1 | Recorded |
| PHS | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 13,005 | 1.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PRB | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 9,469 | 1.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PRTB | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 8,527 | 1.1% | 1 | Recorded |
| PTC | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 7,716 | 1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PC do B | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 5,919 | 0.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PSC | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 4,106 | 0.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PSOL | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 3,385 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PRP | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 2,311 | 0.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PTN | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 1,085 | 0.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PT do B | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 924 | 0.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PSDC | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 866 | 0.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PPL | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 845 | 0.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PMN | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 804 | 0.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PCB | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 774 | 0.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PEN | brazil/S2c70216745/2014 | 502 | 0.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI62.350–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=10.742756597959275, oldest_gap=2.4756014563138873, previous_gap=2.7866248436323904
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility21.58percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PT","PSDB","MDB","PP","PSB","PDT","PSD","PSOL","PL","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[4.960260622237991,3.145949172430904,2.6062223799038966,0,4.907762213371273,3.5912267727502094,13.254649645036443,0.09564778601744434,13.90404777115488,53.53423363709696],[7.594711225520266,8.488316962169083,13.111440885676862,2.7562218906618736,5.178547033502179,2.191155553293564,1.186920569271856,0.16875647904339183,5.873930874131775,53.449998526729146],null]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PT","PSDB","MDB","PP","PSB","PDT","PSD","PSOL","PL","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[4.960260622237991,3.145949172430904,2.6062223799038966,0,4.907762213371273,3.5912267727502094,13.254649645036443,0.09564778601744434,13.90404777115488,53.53423363709696],[7.594711225520266,8.488316962169083,13.111440885676862,2.7562218906618736,5.178547033502179,2.191155553293564,1.186920569271856,0.16875647904339183,5.873930874131775,53.449998526729146],null]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PT","PSDB","MDB","PP","PSB","PDT","PSD","PSOL","PL","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[4.960260622237991,3.145949172430904,2.6062223799038966,0,4.907762213371273,3.5912267727502094,13.254649645036443,0.09564778601744434,13.90404777115488,53.53423363709696],[7.594711225520266,8.488316962169083,13.111440885676862,2.7562218906618736,5.178547033502179,2.191155553293564,1.186920569271856,0.16875647904339183,5.873930874131775,53.449998526729146],null]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation. Roraima legal certification, Rio and other specific replacement/current-control cases remain open. Eight municipal replacement tickets are tracked; ordinary municipal renewals are outside the window. Public-vote baselines for Alagoas and Amazonas are supplied separately from their indirect selections. Roraima’s primary 2010 cycle is recovered; the June 2026 proclamation is still unresolved. Rio’s signed 2026 legislative retotalization verifies the imported 2022 votes and seats, with 70 named elected deputies added; later membership and governing-coalition control still need dated verification.
Sources
- Brazil: https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip · rights unknown
- Brazil: https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip · rights unknown
- Brazil: https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip · rights unknown
- Brazil: TSE 2022: party votes by municipality and zone · rights unknown
- Brazil: TSE 2018: party votes by municipality and zone · rights unknown
- Brazil: TSE 2014: party votes by municipality and zone · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “Tocantins — State legislative assembly.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/BR-TO-A. Sources: brazil--url-580aebec6bb5c27e76b98bb4, brazil--url-ef95aa16df1e62f699a27949, brazil--url-653ade48bf64a7388c4b910b, brazil--S5cd0a4c40e, brazil--S0d7ac4a666, brazil--S2c70216745.