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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

San Carlos — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Argentina · San Carlos / Salta / SAN CARLOS · municipal · MayorAR-SA-M-48

Read the complete original research briefing

Final province archive, including 2017 Coronel Moldes, 2021 Aguaray and 2025 Rivadavia Banda Norte replacements. Council renewal size changed after the constitutional/charter transition; the elected cohort is preserved. Future formal call and independently verified current control remain open.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
San Carlos / Salta / SAN CARLOS
Next election
2027; formal call pending
Linked upcoming event
next-9129368b0def38b264ac220c
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027; formal call pending is expected (not formally called). Year precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-05-14

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO JUSTICIALISTA33.1%
  • FRENTE UNIDOS POR SALTA19.9%
  • FRENTE AVANCEMOS15.3%
  • ENTRE TODOS10.7%
  • PARTIDO DEL TRABAJO Y LA EQUIDAD10.3%
  • FRENTE SALTEÑO4.9%
  • JUNTOS POR EL CAMBIO4.8%
  • FRENTE SALTA VA CON FELICIDAD1.0%
Results for event-545245d9320fed5a13cbdd7c
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO JUSTICIALISTA · VARGAS, MARIA DEL CARMEN "KUKINA4argentina/S7d18af2b89a9/202377733.1%1Recorded
FRENTE UNIDOS POR SALTA · MAGNO, SONIA ELIZABEHT3744argentina/S7d18af2b89a9/202346619.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FRENTE AVANCEMOS · RIOS, ROBERTO3739argentina/S7d18af2b89a9/202335815.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ENTRE TODOS · KOELBL, MAXIMILIANO3741argentina/S7d18af2b89a9/202325210.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO DEL TRABAJO Y LA EQUIDAD · CARDOZO, NESTOR FIDEL1861argentina/S7d18af2b89a9/202324210.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FRENTE SALTEÑO · CONDORI, MARCELO "PIOJO"460argentina/S7d18af2b89a9/20231154.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
JUNTOS POR EL CAMBIO · RODRIGUEZ, RAMON ATILIO3746argentina/S7d18af2b89a9/20231124.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FRENTE SALTA VA CON FELICIDAD · LOPEZ, JULIA ESTHER3743argentina/S7d18af2b89a9/2023241%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-11-10

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO JUSTICIALISTA36.8%
  • PARTIDO DE LA VICTORIA33.5%
  • SAENZ GOBERNADOR12.8%
  • SALTA NOS UNE11.7%
  • PRIMERO SALTA2.8%
  • KOLINA2.5%
Results for event-7a038564512d88f59c111697
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO JUSTICIALISTA · VARGAS, HECTOR "RULO"4argentina/S30fecb2cafb4/201982436.8%1Recorded
PARTIDO DE LA VICTORIA · MAGNO, SONIA ELIZABEHT13argentina/S30fecb2cafb4/201975133.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
SAENZ GOBERNADOR · BRAVO, SOFIA NATALIA3432argentina/S30fecb2cafb4/201928712.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
SALTA NOS UNE · TULA, EXEQUIEL ALEJANDRO1869argentina/S30fecb2cafb4/201926211.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PRIMERO SALTA · DIAZ, EUSTAQUIO AGUSTIN1862argentina/S30fecb2cafb4/2019622.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
KOLINA · VARGAS, JAVIER FERNANDO459argentina/S30fecb2cafb4/2019562.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2015-05-17

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO DE LA VICTORIA51.0%
  • FRENTE ROMERO + OLMEDO44.1%
  • UNION CIVICA RADICAL2.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO POPULAR UNIDO1.5%
  • PARTIDO RENOVADOR DE SALTA1.1%
Results for event-bf65bdda152043377d85a269
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO DE LA VICTORIA · VASQUEZ GARECA, ROBERTO13argentina/Se54cf8adf884/20151,04951%1Recorded
FRENTE ROMERO + OLMEDO · ROJO, DIEGO ERNESTO1688argentina/Se54cf8adf884/201590644.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNION CIVICA RADICAL · CARRASCO, HECTOR BERNARDO5argentina/Se54cf8adf884/2015492.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POPULAR UNIDO · CARDOZO, ZOILO ROBERTO632argentina/Se54cf8adf884/2015301.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO RENOVADOR DE SALTAbulk-152argentina/Se54cf8adf884/2015221.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

51.870–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=13.256606990622334, oldest_gap=6.955252918287933, previous_gap=3.2560214094558404

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

3.63percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine exact standalone party-name categories in the archived returns; accents normalized. Provincial alliances and renamed coalitions remain Other. A category records its published name, not a verified legal succession or inferred allocation of alliance votes. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PARTIDO JUSTICIALISTA","UNION CIVICA RADICAL","PARTIDO SOCIALISTA","PRO - PROPUESTA REPUBLICANA","COALICION CIVICA - AFIRMACION PARA UNA REPUBLICA IGUALITARIA","GEN","PARTIDO OBRERO","PARTIDO DE LOS TRABAJADORES SOCIALISTAS","MOVIMIENTO SOCIALISTA DE LOS TRABAJADORES","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[33.12020460358056,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,66.87979539641942],[36.7528991971454,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,63.2471008028546],[0,2.3832684824902723,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,97.61673151750973]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

36.75percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine exact standalone party-name categories in the archived returns; accents normalized. Provincial alliances and renamed coalitions remain Other. A category records its published name, not a verified legal succession or inferred allocation of alliance votes. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PARTIDO JUSTICIALISTA","UNION CIVICA RADICAL","PARTIDO SOCIALISTA","PRO - PROPUESTA REPUBLICANA","COALICION CIVICA - AFIRMACION PARA UNA REPUBLICA IGUALITARIA","GEN","PARTIDO OBRERO","PARTIDO DE LOS TRABAJADORES SOCIALISTAS","MOVIMIENTO SOCIALISTA DE LOS TRABAJADORES","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[33.12020460358056,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,66.87979539641942],[36.7528991971454,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,63.2471008028546],[0,2.3832684824902723,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,97.61673151750973]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

20.19percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine exact standalone party-name categories in the archived returns; accents normalized. Provincial alliances and renamed coalitions remain Other. A category records its published name, not a verified legal succession or inferred allocation of alliance votes. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PARTIDO JUSTICIALISTA","UNION CIVICA RADICAL","PARTIDO SOCIALISTA","PRO - PROPUESTA REPUBLICANA","COALICION CIVICA - AFIRMACION PARA UNA REPUBLICA IGUALITARIA","GEN","PARTIDO OBRERO","PARTIDO DE LOS TRABAJADORES SOCIALISTAS","MOVIMIENTO SOCIALISTA DE LOS TRABAJADORES","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[33.12020460358056,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,66.87979539641942],[36.7528991971454,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,63.2471008028546],[0,2.3832684824902723,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,97.61673151750973]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

Officeholder observations
PersonRoleAs ofAffiliationPrincipal?
ROJO, DIEGO ERNESTOMayor2015FRENTE ROMERO + OLMEDOunknown
CARRASCO, HECTOR BERNARDOMayor2015UNION CIVICA RADICALunknown
CARDOZO, ZOILO ROBERTOMayor2015MOVIMIENTO POPULAR UNIDOunknown
VASQUEZ GARECA, ROBERTOMayor2015PARTIDO DE LA VICTORIAunknown
VARGAS, HECTOR "RULO"Mayor2019PARTIDO JUSTICIALISTAunknown
MAGNO, SONIA ELIZABEHTMayor2019PARTIDO DE LA VICTORIAunknown
VARGAS, JAVIER FERNANDOMayor2019KOLINAunknown
BRAVO, SOFIA NATALIAMayor2019SAENZ GOBERNADORunknown
TULA, EXEQUIEL ALEJANDROMayor2019SALTA NOS UNEunknown
DIAZ, EUSTAQUIO AGUSTINMayor2019PRIMERO SALTAunknown
VARGAS, MARIA DEL CARMEN "KUKINAMayor2023PARTIDO JUSTICIALISTAunknown
CONDORI, MARCELO "PIOJO"Mayor2023FRENTE SALTEÑOunknown
MAGNO, SONIA ELIZABEHTMayor2023FRENTE UNIDOS POR SALTAunknown
CARDOZO, NESTOR FIDELMayor2023PARTIDO DEL TRABAJO Y LA EQUIDADunknown
RIOS, ROBERTOMayor2023FRENTE AVANCEMOSunknown
KOELBL, MAXIMILIANOMayor2023ENTRE TODOSunknown
RODRIGUEZ, RAMON ATILIOMayor2023JUNTOS POR EL CAMBIOunknown
LOPEZ, JULIA ESTHERMayor2023FRENTE SALTA VA CON FELICIDADunknown

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Final province archive, including 2017 Coronel Moldes, 2021 Aguaray and 2025 Rivadavia Banda Norte replacements. Council renewal size changed after the constitutional/charter transition; the elected cohort is preserved. Future formal call and independently verified current control remain open. Missing older local results in several provincial datasets, full seat proclamations, intervened/replacement contests and dated coalition control. Many municipalities vote separately from provincial election day. Final 2027 calls remain subject to official publication. Ten Catamarca 2023 local returns now have primary provisional counts; final certification and older cycles are still missing. DINE 2015 download has no Catamarca local records. Entre Ríos final national consultation warns that foreign-voter tables are excluded. Neuquén final-file links returned access-denied responses; several older links point to private or defunct hosts.

  • other · open

    Official publication discrepancy repaired from independent final format: Detailed JSON omits PRS 22 votes; bulk final workbook includes them. Vote total now reconciles.

  • other · open

    2019 locality result empty: {"issue": "2019 locality result empty", "name": "Distrito Tala-Sarandí", "code": "0079C"}

  • other · open

    Earlier same-election publication superseded: {"id": "AR-TU-D-OESTE", "year": 2019, "issue": "Earlier same-election publication superseded", "selected_publication": "2019-07-02", "discarded_publications": ["2019-06-15"]}

  • other · open

    Archive navigation year differs from date printed in source: {"file": "ar_formosa_2017_archivo_542.pdf", "issue": "Archive navigation year differs from date printed in source", "navigation_year": 2017, "source_date": "2019-06-16"}

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “San Carlos — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/AR-SA-M-48. Sources: argentina--url-f5fe9fbdf40ff11e02b61fd3, argentina--url-18a390e6430f828c19c2ece0, argentina--url-61130f7a8f4e3e1b17c5f44f, argentina--url-d7f8790fc5c1bdb4230d10b7, argentina--S7d18af2b89a9, argentina--S30fecb2cafb4, argentina--Se54cf8adf884, argentina--S3bb9649156de.