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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

La Paz — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Argentina · La Paz / Mendoza · municipal · MayorAR-MZ-15-M

Read the complete original research briefing

Upcoming ordinary cohort provisionally registered. Councils and both provincial chambers renew partially; 2025 and the six February 2026 council ballots must precede the 2023 history. Current government and any later special calls require checking.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
La Paz / Mendoza
Next election
2027; formal call pending
Linked upcoming event
next-a43efd4db4825229f5621ea7
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027; formal call pending is expected (not formally called). Year precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-09-03

unknown · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • FRENTE ELEGI GESTION LA PAZ (UBIETA, FERNANDO58.4%
  • CAMBIA MENDOZA (BLANCO, CESAR RAMIRO)41.6%
Results for event-ccf54e1d2ed7016ff13ae239
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
FRENTE ELEGI GESTION LA PAZ (UBIETA, FERNANDO506argentina/Sb91235ce0126/20234,51258.4%UnknownRecorded
CAMBIA MENDOZA (BLANCO, CESAR RAMIRO)501argentina/Sb91235ce0126/20233,21741.6%UnknownRecorded

2019-09-29

unknown · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • Elegí Frente Político y Social (EFPS)50.3%
  • Frente Cambia Mendoza (FCM)49.7%
Results for event-8aad489f82d92a627a082bd3
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
Elegí Frente Político y Social (EFPS)302argentina/Sc46e0182746c/20193,79750.3%UnknownRecorded
Frente Cambia Mendoza (FCM)300argentina/Sc46e0182746c/20193,74749.7%UnknownRecorded

2015-06-21

unknown · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • FCM55.9%
  • FPV244.1%
Results for event-f9131c2fade477ff32f41de7
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
FCM508argentina/Sd98dce1f0214/20154,06855.9%UnknownRecorded
FPV2503argentina/Sd98dce1f0214/20153,21244.1%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

42.860–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=16.755078276620523, oldest_gap=11.758241758241752, previous_gap=0.662778366914111

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine exact standalone party-name categories in the archived returns; accents normalized. Provincial alliances and renamed coalitions remain Other. A category records its published name, not a verified legal succession or inferred allocation of alliance votes. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PARTIDO JUSTICIALISTA","UNION CIVICA RADICAL","PARTIDO SOCIALISTA","PRO - PROPUESTA REPUBLICANA","COALICION CIVICA - AFIRMACION PARA UNA REPUBLICA IGUALITARIA","GEN","PARTIDO OBRERO","PARTIDO DE LOS TRABAJADORES SOCIALISTAS","MOVIMIENTO SOCIALISTA DE LOS TRABAJADORES","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine exact standalone party-name categories in the archived returns; accents normalized. Provincial alliances and renamed coalitions remain Other. A category records its published name, not a verified legal succession or inferred allocation of alliance votes. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PARTIDO JUSTICIALISTA","UNION CIVICA RADICAL","PARTIDO SOCIALISTA","PRO - PROPUESTA REPUBLICANA","COALICION CIVICA - AFIRMACION PARA UNA REPUBLICA IGUALITARIA","GEN","PARTIDO OBRERO","PARTIDO DE LOS TRABAJADORES SOCIALISTAS","MOVIMIENTO SOCIALISTA DE LOS TRABAJADORES","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine exact standalone party-name categories in the archived returns; accents normalized. Provincial alliances and renamed coalitions remain Other. A category records its published name, not a verified legal succession or inferred allocation of alliance votes. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PARTIDO JUSTICIALISTA","UNION CIVICA RADICAL","PARTIDO SOCIALISTA","PRO - PROPUESTA REPUBLICANA","COALICION CIVICA - AFIRMACION PARA UNA REPUBLICA IGUALITARIA","GEN","PARTIDO OBRERO","PARTIDO DE LOS TRABAJADORES SOCIALISTAS","MOVIMIENTO SOCIALISTA DE LOS TRABAJADORES","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Upcoming ordinary cohort provisionally registered. Councils and both provincial chambers renew partially; 2025 and the six February 2026 council ballots must precede the 2023 history. Current government and any later special calls require checking. Missing older local results in several provincial datasets, full seat proclamations, intervened/replacement contests and dated coalition control. Many municipalities vote separately from provincial election day. Final 2027 calls remain subject to official publication. Ten Catamarca 2023 local returns now have primary provisional counts; final certification and older cycles are still missing. DINE 2015 download has no Catamarca local records. Entre Ríos final national consultation warns that foreign-voter tables are excluded. Neuquén final-file links returned access-denied responses; several older links point to private or defunct hosts.

  • other · open

    2019 locality result empty: {"issue": "2019 locality result empty", "name": "Distrito Tala-Sarandí", "code": "0079C"}

  • other · open

    Earlier same-election publication superseded: {"id": "AR-TU-D-OESTE", "year": 2019, "issue": "Earlier same-election publication superseded", "selected_publication": "2019-07-02", "discarded_publications": ["2019-06-15"]}

  • other · open

    Archive navigation year differs from date printed in source: {"file": "ar_formosa_2017_archivo_542.pdf", "issue": "Archive navigation year differs from date printed in source", "navigation_year": 2017, "source_date": "2019-06-16"}

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “La Paz — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/AR-MZ-15-M. Sources: argentina--url-716ecf71909e5df5ea7a2809, argentina--url-e80bf84c099122cae2310839, argentina--url-9851297acfcb55ccf623f9ad, argentina--url-b1e6536c2cbee3c9bc7e5a9e, argentina--Sb91235ce0126, argentina--Sc46e0182746c, argentina--Sd98dce1f0214.