Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Caraguatay — Municipal council

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Argentina · Caraguatay / Misiones · municipal · Municipal councilAR-MI-CARAGUATAY-C

Read the complete original research briefing

Ordinary cohort provisionally registered. Municipal votes are pooled by lema; sublema returns retained separately. Charter council partial renewals use intervening 2025/2021 elections where held. Special events and current control require final review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Caraguatay / Misiones
Next election
2027; formal call pending
Linked upcoming event
next-8152b5015e9907aaa89ee114
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027; formal call pending is expected (not formally called). Year precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-05-07

unknown · Legal certification not established · unknown

  • Frente Renovador De La Concordia91.2%
  • Frente Juntos Por El Cambio5.6%
  • Frente Amplio2.1%
  • Frente La Fuerza De Todos1.1%
Results for event-e1306951e9793e9d44207eff
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
Frente Renovador De La Concordiaargentina/S46c3aa04a2e8/20231,90991.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
Frente Juntos Por El Cambioargentina/S46c3aa04a2e8/20231175.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
Frente Amplioargentina/S46c3aa04a2e8/2023452.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
Frente La Fuerza De Todosargentina/S46c3aa04a2e8/2023231.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-06-02

unknown · Legal certification not established · unknown

  • Frente Renovador De La Concordia92.5%
  • Juntos Por El Cambio5.4%
  • Frente Popular Agrario Y Social2.1%
Results for event-e9cb1dcb670d31916f0be589
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
Frente Renovador De La Concordia900argentina/S340a675b527b/20191,85692.5%UnknownRecorded
Juntos Por El Cambio901argentina/S340a675b527b/20191085.4%UnknownRecorded
Frente Popular Agrario Y Social902argentina/S340a675b527b/2019422.1%UnknownRecorded

2015-10-25

unknown · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • FRENTE RENOVADOR DE LA CONCORDIA FRENTE PARA LA VICTORIA55.6%
  • VAMOS JUNTOS43.2%
  • FRENTE CIVICO Y SOCIAL1.2%
Results for event-fd23f9b32cd6c3d720e36e43
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
FRENTE RENOVADOR DE LA CONCORDIA FRENTE PARA LA VICTORIAargentina/S844ff3d5d0f5/20151,07655.6%UnknownRecorded
VAMOS JUNTOSargentina/S844ff3d5d0f5/201583643.2%UnknownRecorded
FRENTE CIVICO Y SOCIALargentina/S844ff3d5d0f5/2015241.2%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

0 (recorded zero)0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=85.57784145176696, oldest_gap=12.396694214876035, previous_gap=87.13858424725822

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine exact standalone party-name categories in the archived returns; accents normalized. Provincial alliances and renamed coalitions remain Other. A category records its published name, not a verified legal succession or inferred allocation of alliance votes. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PARTIDO JUSTICIALISTA","UNION CIVICA RADICAL","PARTIDO SOCIALISTA","PRO - PROPUESTA REPUBLICANA","COALICION CIVICA - AFIRMACION PARA UNA REPUBLICA IGUALITARIA","GEN","PARTIDO OBRERO","PARTIDO DE LOS TRABAJADORES SOCIALISTAS","MOVIMIENTO SOCIALISTA DE LOS TRABAJADORES","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine exact standalone party-name categories in the archived returns; accents normalized. Provincial alliances and renamed coalitions remain Other. A category records its published name, not a verified legal succession or inferred allocation of alliance votes. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PARTIDO JUSTICIALISTA","UNION CIVICA RADICAL","PARTIDO SOCIALISTA","PRO - PROPUESTA REPUBLICANA","COALICION CIVICA - AFIRMACION PARA UNA REPUBLICA IGUALITARIA","GEN","PARTIDO OBRERO","PARTIDO DE LOS TRABAJADORES SOCIALISTAS","MOVIMIENTO SOCIALISTA DE LOS TRABAJADORES","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine exact standalone party-name categories in the archived returns; accents normalized. Provincial alliances and renamed coalitions remain Other. A category records its published name, not a verified legal succession or inferred allocation of alliance votes. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PARTIDO JUSTICIALISTA","UNION CIVICA RADICAL","PARTIDO SOCIALISTA","PRO - PROPUESTA REPUBLICANA","COALICION CIVICA - AFIRMACION PARA UNA REPUBLICA IGUALITARIA","GEN","PARTIDO OBRERO","PARTIDO DE LOS TRABAJADORES SOCIALISTAS","MOVIMIENTO SOCIALISTA DE LOS TRABAJADORES","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Ordinary cohort provisionally registered. Municipal votes are pooled by lema; sublema returns retained separately. Charter council partial renewals use intervening 2025/2021 elections where held. Special events and current control require final review. Missing older local results in several provincial datasets, full seat proclamations, intervened/replacement contests and dated coalition control. Many municipalities vote separately from provincial election day. Final 2027 calls remain subject to official publication. Ten Catamarca 2023 local returns now have primary provisional counts; final certification and older cycles are still missing. DINE 2015 download has no Catamarca local records. Entre Ríos final national consultation warns that foreign-voter tables are excluded. Neuquén final-file links returned access-denied responses; several older links point to private or defunct hosts.

  • other · open

    2019 locality result empty: {"issue": "2019 locality result empty", "name": "Distrito Tala-Sarandí", "code": "0079C"}

  • other · open

    Earlier same-election publication superseded: {"id": "AR-TU-D-OESTE", "year": 2019, "issue": "Earlier same-election publication superseded", "selected_publication": "2019-07-02", "discarded_publications": ["2019-06-15"]}

  • other · open

    Archive navigation year differs from date printed in source: {"file": "ar_formosa_2017_archivo_542.pdf", "issue": "Archive navigation year differs from date printed in source", "navigation_year": 2017, "source_date": "2019-06-16"}

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “Caraguatay — Municipal council.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/AR-MI-CARAGUATAY-C. Sources: argentina--url-530cd3f7c2e11fb575399549, argentina--url-caa51693f85e35b10e283b3a, argentina--url-457c55b0da9468ec96f4e895, argentina--url-b1e0b505aba2d2fbabe60e59, argentina--S46c3aa04a2e8, argentina--S340a675b527b, argentina--S844ff3d5d0f5.