[ { "country": "Brazil", "scope": "National presidential poll; context for subnational races", "pollster": "Datafolha", "fieldwork_start": "2026-09-01", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-02", "publication_date": "2026-09-03", "sample": 2002, "margin_of_error_pp": 2, "tse_registration": "BR-03669/2026", "measure": "Hypothetical presidential runoff", "incumbent_candidate": "Lula (PT)", "incumbent_share": 46, "opposition_candidate": "Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)", "opposition_share": 44, "interpretation": "Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.", "local_forecast": "No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed", "source_type": "Poll commissioning publisher's report", "url": "https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml" }, { "country": "Brazil", "office_ids": [ "BR-RJ-G" ], "scope": "Rio de Janeiro governor", "pollster": "Datafolha", "fieldwork_start": "2026-09-08", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-11", "publication_date": "2026-09-11", "sample": 1204, "margin_of_error_pp": 3, "measure": "Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents", "incumbent_candidate": "Eduardo Paes (PSD)", "incumbent_share": 43, "opposition_candidate": "Douglas Ruas (PL)", "opposition_share": 25, "candidate_label_note": "Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status", "registration": "RJ-09217/2026", "interpretation": "Eduardo Paes (PSD) 43%, Douglas Ruas (PL) 25%. Numerical gap 18 percentage points. The reported point estimates show a lead at fieldwork time. Undecided 3%. Neither leading candidate is the interim governor. Later candidate eligibility decisions can change the ballot.", "local_forecast": "Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag", "source_type": "Poll publisher report", "url": "https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-eduardo-paes-lidera-com-49-dos-votos-validos-no-rio.shtml", "source_sha256": "4842d4010f586661798c06bf54c0605523d5438c2b5a3d3c9a1deddf238d7bca", "retrieved": "2026-09-12T12:13:29Z" }, { "country": "Brazil", "office_ids": [ "BR-SP-G" ], "scope": "São Paulo governor", "pollster": "Paraná Pesquisas", "fieldwork_start": "2026-09-07", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-10", "publication_date": "2026-09-11", "sample": 1680, "margin_of_error_pp": 2.4, "measure": "Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents", "incumbent_candidate": "Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos)", "incumbent_share": 49.7, "opposition_candidate": "Fernando Haddad (PT)", "opposition_share": 34.5, "candidate_label_note": "Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status", "registration": "", "interpretation": "Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) 49.7%, Fernando Haddad (PT) 34.5%. Numerical gap 15.2 percentage points. The reported point estimates show a lead at fieldwork time. Undecided 4.4%. The incumbent leads this poll. Valid-vote normalization is not substituted for all-respondent shares.", "local_forecast": "Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag", "source_type": "Poll publisher report", "url": "https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/colunas/painel/2026/09/tarcisio-chega-a-56-dos-votos-validos-e-venceria-em-primeiro-turno-diz-pesquisa-parana.shtml", "source_sha256": "546dc3f76974270ca5d49446d5a742cd9704ee59bb87ed56c05eb3e48cd4176c", "retrieved": "2026-09-12T12:13:29Z" }, { "country": "Brazil", "office_ids": [ "BR-SP-G" ], "scope": "São Paulo governor", "pollster": "Quaest", "fieldwork_start": "2026-09-04", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-07", "publication_date": "2026-09-08", "sample": 1800, "margin_of_error_pp": 2, "measure": "Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents", "incumbent_candidate": "Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos)", "incumbent_share": 42, "opposition_candidate": "Fernando Haddad (PT)", "opposition_share": 27, "candidate_label_note": "Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status", "registration": "SP-00959/2026", "interpretation": "Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) 42%, Fernando Haddad (PT) 27%. Numerical gap 15 percentage points. The reported point estimates show a lead at fieldwork time. Undecided 14%. The incumbent leads this poll; it is retained alongside the later Paraná study without averaging unlike surveys.", "local_forecast": "Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag", "source_type": "Poll publisher report", "url": "https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/quaest-tarcisio-tem-42-no-1o-turno-para-governo-de-sp-contra-27-de-haddad.shtml", "source_sha256": "4fc1ccfceb5ec48c3402000eb2d1c84e3176b91df0b77cfe7a568de428a3598c", "retrieved": "2026-09-12T12:13:29Z" }, { "country": "Peru", "office_ids": [ "PE-6dac1ede1abb9a" ], "scope": "Lima provincial municipal ballot", "pollster": "Ipsos", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-05", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-06", "publication_date": "2026-08-10", "sample": 502, "margin_of_error_pp": 4.37, "measure": "Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents", "incumbent_candidate": "Rafael López Aliaga (Renovación Popular)", "incumbent_share": 21, "opposition_candidate": "Carlos Bruce (Somos Perú)", "opposition_share": 13, "candidate_label_note": "Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status", "registration": "001-REE/JNE", "interpretation": "Rafael López Aliaga (Renovación Popular) 21%, Carlos Bruce (Somos Perú) 13%. Numerical gap 8 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 21%. Technical sheet on page 12; candidate chart on pages 4–5. Website article is dated 10 August; search metadata showed 28 August and is not used.", "local_forecast": "Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag", "source_type": "Pollster report", "url": "https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2026-08/Encuesta%20Elecciones%20Municipales%20Agosto%20de%202026%20V3.pdf", "source_sha256": "4fff058924ac43885898cdddefe33d19a2c10392f47c697f1bc3a4ca75d2f771", "retrieved": "2026-09-12T12:15:37Z" }, { "country": "Peru", "office_ids": [ "PE-8cc1de943a5343" ], "scope": "Miraflores district municipal ballot", "pollster": "CPI", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-17", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-21", "publication_date": "2026-08-26", "sample": 300, "margin_of_error_pp": 5.7, "measure": "Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents", "incumbent_candidate": "Alessio Cantella", "incumbent_share": 20, "opposition_candidate": "Jorge Muñoz", "opposition_share": 16.6, "candidate_label_note": "Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status", "registration": "", "interpretation": "Alessio Cantella 20%, Jorge Muñoz 16.6%. Numerical gap 3.4 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 23.3%.", "local_forecast": "Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag", "source_type": "Poll publisher report", "url": "https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-municipales-lima-2026-encuesta-cpi-de-intencion-de-voto-por-distritos-noticia-1703692", "source_sha256": "be8b84ffa4c249de80db2981e9f0be59eeb56bbbf993debd11a9dde8d25fb774", "retrieved": "2026-09-12T12:14:56Z" }, { "country": "Peru", "office_ids": [ "PE-2ed8a36d967ed3" ], "scope": "La Molina district municipal ballot", "pollster": "CPI", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-17", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-21", "publication_date": "2026-08-26", "sample": 350, "margin_of_error_pp": 5.2, "measure": "Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents", "incumbent_candidate": "Juan Carlos Zurek", "incumbent_share": 21.7, "opposition_candidate": "Sergio Castromonte", "opposition_share": 16.6, "candidate_label_note": "Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status", "registration": "", "interpretation": "Juan Carlos Zurek 21.7%, Sergio Castromonte 16.6%. Numerical gap 5.1 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 31.1%.", "local_forecast": "Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag", "source_type": "Poll publisher report", "url": "https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-municipales-lima-2026-encuesta-cpi-de-intencion-de-voto-por-distritos-noticia-1703692", "source_sha256": "be8b84ffa4c249de80db2981e9f0be59eeb56bbbf993debd11a9dde8d25fb774", "retrieved": "2026-09-12T12:14:56Z" }, { "country": "Peru", "office_ids": [ "PE-16af37a264a54a" ], "scope": "Los Olivos district municipal ballot", "pollster": "CPI", "fieldwork_start": "2026-07-31", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-04", "publication_date": "2026-08-26", "sample": 400, "margin_of_error_pp": 4.9, "measure": "Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents", "incumbent_candidate": "Felipe Castillo Alfaro", "incumbent_share": 26.1, "opposition_candidate": "Erick Melchor", "opposition_share": 10.6, "candidate_label_note": "Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status", "registration": "", "interpretation": "Felipe Castillo Alfaro 26.1%, Erick Melchor 10.6%. Numerical gap 15.5 percentage points. The reported point estimates show a lead at fieldwork time. Undecided 28.4%.", "local_forecast": "Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag", "source_type": "Poll publisher report", "url": "https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-municipales-lima-2026-encuesta-cpi-de-intencion-de-voto-por-distritos-noticia-1703692", "source_sha256": "be8b84ffa4c249de80db2981e9f0be59eeb56bbbf993debd11a9dde8d25fb774", "retrieved": "2026-09-12T12:14:56Z" }, { "country": "Peru", "office_ids": [ "PE-3e77bf9a769da8" ], "scope": "Pueblo Libre district municipal ballot", "pollster": "CPI", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-11", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-14", "publication_date": "2026-08-26", "sample": 250, "margin_of_error_pp": 6.2, "measure": "Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents", "incumbent_candidate": "Jhonel Leguía", "incumbent_share": 24.8, "opposition_candidate": "Cecilia Acosta", "opposition_share": 13.6, "candidate_label_note": "Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status", "registration": "", "interpretation": "Jhonel Leguía 24.8%, Cecilia Acosta 13.6%. Numerical gap 11.2 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 35.6%.", "local_forecast": "Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag", "source_type": "Poll publisher report", "url": "https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-municipales-lima-2026-encuesta-cpi-de-intencion-de-voto-por-distritos-noticia-1703692", "source_sha256": "be8b84ffa4c249de80db2981e9f0be59eeb56bbbf993debd11a9dde8d25fb774", "retrieved": "2026-09-12T12:14:56Z" }, { "country": "Peru", "office_ids": [ "PE-9233f8366c44b7" ], "scope": "Santiago De Surco district municipal ballot", "pollster": "CPI", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-14", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-19", "publication_date": "2026-08-26", "sample": 350, "margin_of_error_pp": 5.2, "measure": "Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents", "incumbent_candidate": "Arturo Bobbio", "incumbent_share": 30.6, "opposition_candidate": "Juan Palma", "opposition_share": 22.6, "candidate_label_note": "Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status", "registration": "", "interpretation": "Arturo Bobbio 30.6%, Juan Palma 22.6%. Numerical gap 8 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 19.1%.", "local_forecast": "Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag", "source_type": "Poll publisher report", "url": "https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-municipales-lima-2026-encuesta-cpi-de-intencion-de-voto-por-distritos-noticia-1703692", "source_sha256": "be8b84ffa4c249de80db2981e9f0be59eeb56bbbf993debd11a9dde8d25fb774", "retrieved": "2026-09-12T12:14:56Z" }, { "country": "Peru", "office_ids": [ "PE-b3076625948256" ], "scope": "San Borja district municipal ballot", "pollster": "CPI", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-15", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-19", "publication_date": "2026-08-26", "sample": 300, "margin_of_error_pp": 5.7, "measure": "Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents", "incumbent_candidate": "Javier Diez", "incumbent_share": 26.7, "opposition_candidate": "Alberto Tejada", "opposition_share": 14.7, "candidate_label_note": "Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status", "registration": "", "interpretation": "Javier Diez 26.7%, Alberto Tejada 14.7%. Numerical gap 12 percentage points. The reported point estimates show a lead at fieldwork time. Undecided 23.7%.", "local_forecast": "Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag", "source_type": "Poll publisher report", "url": "https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-municipales-lima-2026-encuesta-cpi-de-intencion-de-voto-por-distritos-noticia-1703692", "source_sha256": "be8b84ffa4c249de80db2981e9f0be59eeb56bbbf993debd11a9dde8d25fb774", "retrieved": "2026-09-12T12:14:56Z" }, { "country": "Peru", "office_ids": [ "PE-ba23e3c3432c1b" ], "scope": "San Isidro district municipal ballot", "pollster": "CPI", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-14", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-18", "publication_date": "2026-08-26", "sample": 300, "margin_of_error_pp": 5.7, "measure": "Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents", "incumbent_candidate": "Javier Paino", "incumbent_share": 17.3, "opposition_candidate": "Víctor Hugo Bazán", "opposition_share": 14.7, "candidate_label_note": "Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status", "registration": "", "interpretation": "Javier Paino 17.3%, Víctor Hugo Bazán 14.7%. Numerical gap 2.6 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 44.7%.", "local_forecast": "Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag", "source_type": "Poll publisher report", "url": "https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-municipales-lima-2026-encuesta-cpi-de-intencion-de-voto-por-distritos-noticia-1703692", "source_sha256": "be8b84ffa4c249de80db2981e9f0be59eeb56bbbf993debd11a9dde8d25fb774", "retrieved": "2026-09-12T12:14:56Z" }, { "country": "Peru", "office_ids": [ "PE-dcd914b58436af" ], "scope": "San Martin De Porres district municipal ballot", "pollster": "CPI", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-18", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-23", "publication_date": "2026-08-26", "sample": 400, "margin_of_error_pp": 4.9, "measure": "Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents", "incumbent_candidate": "Peter Jaime", "incumbent_share": 15.3, "opposition_candidate": "Adolfo Mattos", "opposition_share": 10.5, "candidate_label_note": "Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status", "registration": "", "interpretation": "Peter Jaime 15.3%, Adolfo Mattos 10.5%. Numerical gap 4.8 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 34.2%.", "local_forecast": "Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag", "source_type": "Poll publisher report", "url": "https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-municipales-lima-2026-encuesta-cpi-de-intencion-de-voto-por-distritos-noticia-1703692", "source_sha256": "be8b84ffa4c249de80db2981e9f0be59eeb56bbbf993debd11a9dde8d25fb774", "retrieved": "2026-09-12T12:14:56Z" }, { "country": "Argentina", "scope": "National presidential approval; context for subnational races", "pollster": "AtlasIntel / Bloomberg", "series_id": "atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug", "fieldwork_start": "2026-07-30", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-03", "publication_date": null, "report_month": "2026-07", "sample": 1120, "margin_of_error_pp": 3, "methodology": "Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin", "measure": "Presidential job approval", "incumbent_candidate": "Javier Milei", "incumbent_share": 37.1, "opposition_candidate": "Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)", "opposition_share": 62.4, "approve_pct": 37.1, "disapprove_pct": 62.4, "unsure_pct": 0.5, "candidate_label_note": "Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares", "interpretation": "Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ", "local_forecast": "Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability", "source_type": "Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6", "url": "https://cdn.atlasintel.org/39865b10-c10c-43c6-a1e2-e2b864962ffc.pdf", "source_sha256": "604490577e8be89264d9c36a74179fd0b2f30dae73b5eb640775042909b832cd", "source_pages": [ 6, 8 ], "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "precision_note": "One decimal place as printed", "within_person_comparable": true, "approval_change_pp": null }, { "country": "Argentina", "scope": "National presidential approval; context for subnational races", "pollster": "AtlasIntel / Bloomberg", "series_id": "atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-30", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-03", "publication_date": null, "report_month": "2026-08", "sample": 2193, "margin_of_error_pp": 2, "methodology": "Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin", "measure": "Presidential job approval", "incumbent_candidate": "Javier Milei", "incumbent_share": 38.1, "opposition_candidate": "Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)", "opposition_share": 58, "approve_pct": 38.1, "disapprove_pct": 58, "unsure_pct": 3.9, "candidate_label_note": "Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares", "interpretation": "Approval rose 1.0 percentage point while disapproval fell 4.4 points; approval movement is smaller than the combined reported survey uncertainty. The negative approval balance remains a national headwind for Milei-aligned candidates, conditional on local alliance and incumbent identity.", "local_forecast": "Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability", "source_type": "Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6", "url": "https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/ar_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_aa84843133a7af6c.pdf", "source_sha256": "9dde688516e32dd0382ff00ffda9026ee946dc49cb14ff4067e4bd6f60808f7b", "source_pages": [ 6, 8 ], "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "precision_note": "One decimal place as printed", "within_person_comparable": true, "approval_change_pp": 1.0 }, { "country": "Brazil", "scope": "National presidential approval; context for subnational races", "pollster": "AtlasIntel / Bloomberg", "series_id": "atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug", "fieldwork_start": "2026-07-22", "fieldwork_end": "2026-07-27", "publication_date": null, "report_month": "2026-07", "sample": 5021, "margin_of_error_pp": 1, "methodology": "Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin", "measure": "Presidential job approval", "incumbent_candidate": "Lula", "incumbent_share": 48, "opposition_candidate": "Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)", "opposition_share": 51, "approve_pct": 48, "disapprove_pct": 51, "unsure_pct": 1, "candidate_label_note": "Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares", "interpretation": "Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ", "local_forecast": "Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability", "source_type": "Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6", "url": "https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf", "source_sha256": "e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506", "source_pages": [ 6, 8 ], "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "precision_note": "Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart", "within_person_comparable": true, "approval_change_pp": null }, { "country": "Brazil", "scope": "National presidential approval; context for subnational races", "pollster": "AtlasIntel / Bloomberg", "series_id": "atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-25", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-30", "publication_date": null, "report_month": "2026-08", "sample": 5014, "margin_of_error_pp": 1, "methodology": "Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin", "measure": "Presidential job approval", "incumbent_candidate": "Lula", "incumbent_share": 45, "opposition_candidate": "Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)", "opposition_share": 53, "approve_pct": 45, "disapprove_pct": 53, "unsure_pct": 2, "candidate_label_note": "Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares", "interpretation": "Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.", "local_forecast": "Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability", "source_type": "Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6", "url": "https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf", "source_sha256": "03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2", "source_pages": [ 6, 8 ], "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "precision_note": "Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart", "within_person_comparable": true, "approval_change_pp": -3 }, { "country": "Chile", "scope": "National presidential approval; context for subnational races", "pollster": "AtlasIntel / Bloomberg", "series_id": "atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug", "fieldwork_start": "2026-07-30", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-03", "publication_date": null, "report_month": "2026-07", "sample": 1801, "margin_of_error_pp": 2, "methodology": "Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin", "measure": "Presidential job approval", "incumbent_candidate": "José Antonio Kast", "incumbent_share": 50.2, "opposition_candidate": "Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)", "opposition_share": 48.2, "approve_pct": 50.2, "disapprove_pct": 48.2, "unsure_pct": 1.6, "candidate_label_note": "Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares", "interpretation": "Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ", "local_forecast": "Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability", "source_type": "Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6", "url": "https://cdn.atlasintel.org/f62eb000-c5f0-4779-ba44-984d41b6335a.pdf", "source_sha256": "4f201eec9ce9817d4569fcc83ae2e7704d0da034c866766a780d307a88a50b4f", "source_pages": [ 6, 8 ], "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "precision_note": "One decimal place as printed", "within_person_comparable": true, "approval_change_pp": null }, { "country": "Chile", "scope": "National presidential approval; context for subnational races", "pollster": "AtlasIntel / Bloomberg", "series_id": "atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-30", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-03", "publication_date": null, "report_month": "2026-08", "sample": 2069, "margin_of_error_pp": 2, "methodology": "Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin", "measure": "Presidential job approval", "incumbent_candidate": "José Antonio Kast", "incumbent_share": 54.1, "opposition_candidate": "Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)", "opposition_share": 45.8, "approve_pct": 54.1, "disapprove_pct": 45.8, "unsure_pct": 0.1, "candidate_label_note": "Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares", "interpretation": "Approval increased 3.9 points and disapproval declined 2.4 points. This is a descriptive two-wave change, not an established long-run trend. The next ordinary subnational cohort is outside the fixed window.", "local_forecast": "Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability", "source_type": "Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6", "url": "https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/cl_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_6425eacaa2bb87ed.pdf", "source_sha256": "e4ba073bf7ff4b33a0e8ef8e09d7dac5d0451a33e403ca43f5931a54d48f5aba", "source_pages": [ 6, 8 ], "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "precision_note": "One decimal place as printed", "within_person_comparable": true, "approval_change_pp": 3.9 }, { "country": "Colombia", "scope": "National presidential approval; context for subnational races", "pollster": "AtlasIntel / Bloomberg", "series_id": "atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug", "fieldwork_start": "2026-07-30", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-03", "publication_date": null, "report_month": "2026-07", "sample": 2191, "margin_of_error_pp": 2, "methodology": "Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin", "measure": "Presidential job approval", "incumbent_candidate": "Gustavo Petro", "incumbent_share": 46.4, "opposition_candidate": "Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)", "opposition_share": 51.1, "approve_pct": 46.4, "disapprove_pct": 51.1, "unsure_pct": 2.5, "candidate_label_note": "Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares", "interpretation": "Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.", "local_forecast": "Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability", "source_type": "Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6", "url": "https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf", "source_sha256": "b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c", "source_pages": [ 6, 8 ], "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "precision_note": "One decimal place as printed", "within_person_comparable": false, "approval_change_pp": null }, { "country": "Colombia", "scope": "National presidential approval; context for subnational races", "pollster": "AtlasIntel / Bloomberg", "series_id": "atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-30", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-03", "publication_date": null, "report_month": "2026-08", "sample": 1904, "margin_of_error_pp": 2, "methodology": "Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin", "measure": "Presidential job approval", "incumbent_candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella", "incumbent_share": 51.8, "opposition_candidate": "Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)", "opposition_share": 43.2, "approve_pct": 51.8, "disapprove_pct": 43.2, "unsure_pct": 5, "candidate_label_note": "Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares", "interpretation": "The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.", "local_forecast": "Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability", "source_type": "Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6", "url": "https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf", "source_sha256": "4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4", "source_pages": [ 6, 8 ], "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "precision_note": "One decimal place as printed", "within_person_comparable": false, "approval_change_pp": null }, { "country": "Peru", "scope": "National presidential approval; context for subnational races", "pollster": "AtlasIntel / Bloomberg", "series_id": "atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug", "fieldwork_start": "2026-07-30", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-03", "publication_date": null, "report_month": "2026-07", "sample": 982, "margin_of_error_pp": 3, "methodology": "Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin", "measure": "Presidential job approval", "incumbent_candidate": "José Balcázar", "incumbent_share": 23.2, "opposition_candidate": "Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)", "opposition_share": 56.2, "approve_pct": 23.2, "disapprove_pct": 56.2, "unsure_pct": 20.6, "candidate_label_note": "Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares", "interpretation": "Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.", "local_forecast": "Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability", "source_type": "Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6", "url": "https://cdn.atlasintel.org/606fac14-0205-4bc1-a7f2-b96460e93be8.pdf", "source_sha256": "50afb9a89f632161f470d9ecc483e9352a384680d74e93358ef0594a25ad5986", "source_pages": [ 6, 8 ], "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "precision_note": "One decimal place as printed", "within_person_comparable": false, "approval_change_pp": null }, { "country": "Peru", "scope": "National presidential approval; context for subnational races", "pollster": "AtlasIntel / Bloomberg", "series_id": "atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-30", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-03", "publication_date": null, "report_month": "2026-08", "sample": 1769, "margin_of_error_pp": 2, "methodology": "Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin", "measure": "Presidential job approval", "incumbent_candidate": "Keiko Fujimori", "incumbent_share": 42.8, "opposition_candidate": "Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)", "opposition_share": 40.3, "approve_pct": 42.8, "disapprove_pct": 40.3, "unsure_pct": 16.9, "candidate_label_note": "Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares", "interpretation": "The July question evaluates outgoing José Balcázar and August evaluates Keiko Fujimori. No within-president change is computed. The new administration has a small positive approval balance and 16.9% unsure; this does not establish movement in regional or municipal voting intentions.", "local_forecast": "Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability", "source_type": "Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6", "url": "https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/pe_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_7dc5118dfa63ea44.pdf", "source_sha256": "aad2fa565f83fde6024b8ef8b886e0a5344bd41bf22e5f1ccb5cd0f96074219f", "source_pages": [ 6, 8 ], "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "precision_note": "One decimal place as printed", "within_person_comparable": false, "approval_change_pp": null }, { "country": "Venezuela", "scope": "National presidential approval; context for subnational races", "pollster": "AtlasIntel / Bloomberg", "series_id": "atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug", "fieldwork_start": "2026-07-30", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-03", "publication_date": null, "report_month": "2026-07", "sample": 1110, "margin_of_error_pp": 3, "methodology": "Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin", "measure": "Presidential job approval", "incumbent_candidate": "Delcy Rodríguez", "incumbent_share": 22, "opposition_candidate": "Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)", "opposition_share": 64.5, "approve_pct": 22, "disapprove_pct": 64.5, "unsure_pct": 13.5, "candidate_label_note": "Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares", "interpretation": "Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ", "local_forecast": "Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability", "source_type": "Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6", "url": "https://cdn.atlasintel.org/99efb203-0c0f-4096-9627-91d02c336185.pdf", "source_sha256": "8fffa9b7dfec36898c1bb4a05d8b1b10a3b2d1a4a59bba645ea07c039aa76db9", "source_pages": [ 6, 8 ], "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "precision_note": "One decimal place as printed", "within_person_comparable": true, "approval_change_pp": null }, { "country": "Venezuela", "scope": "National presidential approval; context for subnational races", "pollster": "AtlasIntel / Bloomberg", "series_id": "atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-30", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-03", "publication_date": null, "report_month": "2026-08", "sample": 1922, "margin_of_error_pp": 2, "methodology": "Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin", "measure": "Presidential job approval", "incumbent_candidate": "Delcy Rodríguez", "incumbent_share": 24.6, "opposition_candidate": "Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)", "opposition_share": 60.5, "approve_pct": 24.6, "disapprove_pct": 60.5, "unsure_pct": 14.9, "candidate_label_note": "Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares", "interpretation": "Approval rose 2.6 points and disapproval fell 4.0 points; the approval movement is within combined reported survey uncertainty. Disapproval remains much higher than approval. No local turnover forecast is inferred, and electoral access conditions need separate assessment.", "local_forecast": "Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability", "source_type": "Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6", "url": "https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/vz_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_9eba722f82e61ac0.pdf", "source_sha256": "c37e0d862d2f26098b49583ea2efc551c2f6658b70b314bd820a26b26f0deffa", "source_pages": [ 6, 8 ], "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "precision_note": "One decimal place as printed", "within_person_comparable": true, "approval_change_pp": 2.6 }, { "country": "Paraguay", "office_ids": [ "PY-00-000-M" ], "scope": "Asunción mayor", "series_id": "oee_paraguay_2026", "pollster": "Grau & Asociados", "fieldwork_start": "2026-07-23", "fieldwork_end": "2026-07-24", "publication_date": null, "sample": null, "margin_of_error_pp": null, "measure": "Municipal vote intention", "incumbent_candidate": "Camilo Pérez (ANR)", "incumbent_share": 41.2, "opposition_candidate": "Soledad Núñez (opposition alliance)", "opposition_share": 28.7, "candidate_label_note": "Leading candidate labels do not imply incumbent officeholder", "interpretation": "Pérez leads in two separately reported polls. Different pollsters and incomplete technical details prevent averaging or a time-trend estimate. This local evidence does not imply the same result across Paraguay.", "local_forecast": "Reported lead, without calibrated probability; full technical sheet unavailable", "source_type": "Secondary summary by electoral observatory", "url": "https://oeeparaguay.org/municipales-2026-como-se-mueve-el-mapa-electoral-en-las-principales-ciudades-del-paraguay/", "retrieved": "2026-09-13" }, { "country": "Paraguay", "office_ids": [ "PY-00-000-M" ], "scope": "Asunción mayor", "series_id": "oee_paraguay_2026", "pollster": "MultiTarget", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-06", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-10", "publication_date": null, "sample": 760, "margin_of_error_pp": null, "measure": "Municipal vote intention", "incumbent_candidate": "Camilo Pérez (ANR)", "incumbent_share": 47.63, "opposition_candidate": "Soledad Núñez (opposition alliance)", "opposition_share": 35, "candidate_label_note": "Leading candidate labels do not imply incumbent officeholder", "interpretation": "Pérez leads in two separately reported polls. Different pollsters and incomplete technical details prevent averaging or a time-trend estimate. This local evidence does not imply the same result across Paraguay.", "local_forecast": "Reported lead, without calibrated probability; full technical sheet unavailable", "source_type": "Secondary summary by electoral observatory", "url": "https://oeeparaguay.org/municipales-2026-como-se-mueve-el-mapa-electoral-en-las-principales-ciudades-del-paraguay/", "retrieved": "2026-09-13" } ]