{"country":"Guatemala","coverage":{"country":"Guatemala","status":"Results imported; completion checks remain","units":340,"historical_units":0,"histories":1017,"party_rows":9121,"three_votes":324,"three_seats":325,"score_ready":0,"note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","date":"2027-06-27","denominator_status":"Eligible-office denominator not closed","file":"Guatemala_Returns.xlsx","comparison_ci_available":324,"grouped_volatility_available":337},"offices":[{"id":"GT-M-00-01","country":"Guatemala","region":"Distrito Central","name":"Guatemala","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.0975751536289664,3.432518282213067,36.28428122219421],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-00-01|GT-M-00-01-2023-FINAL||677","GT-M-00-01|GT-M-00-01-2019-FINAL||337","GT-M-00-01|GT-M-00-01-2015-FINAL||0"],"all_keys":["GT-M-00-01|GT-M-00-01-2023-FINAL||677","GT-M-00-01|GT-M-00-01-2019-FINAL||337","GT-M-00-01|GT-M-00-01-2015-FINAL||0"],"shares":[[0.24590784107475688,0.2449320895384672],[0.3830542640254845,0.34872908120335383],[0.5608794497083713,0.19803663748642922]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":76.4163565046964,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[7.453542231818266,2.1305061912934358,3.7802875122257285,0,1.8601561202458063,0,0,24.49320895384672,0.350624665522523,0,0,59.93167432504752],[1.5989382976734217,2.172430855951895,0.695259964290682,0.863773284595967,2.4323837451914416,0,0,34.87290812033538,0.4692833737324446,38.30542640254845,9.672299739363025,8.917296216317288],[0,0,2.8152226234707465,1.5518107236851701,19.803663748642922,12.115667932926435,0.9656359464961836,0,0,0,0,62.747999024778544]],"volatility_latest":59.95400959081012,"volatility_previous":87.09128678960462,"volatility_mean":73.52264819020738,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"RICARDO QUIÑONEZ LEMUS","party":"VALOR UNIONISTA","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-01-02","country":"Guatemala","region":"Guatemala","name":"Santa Catarina Pinula","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[23.518727467870217,8.77279448003943,21.105434277751975],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-01-02|GT-M-01-02-2023-FINAL||678","GT-M-01-02|GT-M-01-02-2019-FINAL||338","GT-M-01-02|GT-M-01-02-2015-FINAL||1"],"all_keys":["GT-M-01-02|GT-M-01-02-2023-FINAL||678","GT-M-01-02|GT-M-01-02-2019-FINAL||338","GT-M-01-02|GT-M-01-02-2015-FINAL||1"],"shares":[[0.49255579712139147,0.25736852244268926],[0.32991621488417944,0.2421882700837851],[0.36185167982659855,0.1507973370490788]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":5.731908737454217,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[25.736852244268928,0.8668849932575612,1.4558163855023805,0,1.2659272917412003,0,0,6.205795745383494,0.7045160580124942,0,0,63.76420728183395],[2.526696237884015,9.666502382125842,6.068670938064728,1.448989650073928,0,0,0,0,0,32.99162148841794,3.7982585838672582,43.49926071956629],[15.07973370490788,0,5.774887753522217,1.6380244619910203,8.632915311967796,36.185167982659856,6.214584300975384,0,0,0,0,26.474686483975848]],"volatility_latest":51.65134166378976,"volatility_previous":63.77473987454399,"volatility_mean":57.713040769166874,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"SEBASTIÁN SIERO ASTURIAS","party":"VALOR UNIONISTA","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-01-03","country":"Guatemala","region":"Guatemala","name":"San José Pinula","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.680100755667507,5.520629501644532,14.461526046079971],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-01-03|GT-M-01-03-2023-FINAL||679","GT-M-01-03|GT-M-01-03-2019-FINAL||339","GT-M-01-03|GT-M-01-03-2015-FINAL||2"],"all_keys":["GT-M-01-03|GT-M-01-03-2023-FINAL||679","GT-M-01-03|GT-M-01-03-2019-FINAL||339","GT-M-01-03|GT-M-01-03-2015-FINAL||2"],"shares":[[0.27506297229219145,0.16826196473551636],[0.31512552562554647,0.25991923060910116],[0.41633377718597425,0.2717185167251745]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":52.447990457490704,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[16.826196473551637,4.001439366678661,0,0,0,0,0,4.627563871896365,0.37063691975530766,2.9578985246491545,5.609931630082763,65.60633321338611],[31.512552562554646,6.482368125234189,5.9869270161122445,3.484741246513177,0,0,0,0,9.771430950497523,0,0,42.76198009908822],[27.17185167251745,0,16.119920913529434,2.0820723883307104,0,41.63337771859742,4.184319896703386,0,0,0,0,8.808457410321592]],"volatility_latest":36.039747140926174,"volatility_previous":55.950691512717995,"volatility_mean":45.99521932682208,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JOHNNY FREDERYK AYALA TOLEDO","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-01-04","country":"Guatemala","region":"Guatemala","name":"San José Del Golfo","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.9073075036782754,30.930045564191904,22.309711286089236],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-01-04|GT-M-01-04-2023-FINAL||680","GT-M-01-04|GT-M-01-04-2019-FINAL||340","GT-M-01-04|GT-M-01-04-2015-FINAL||3"],"all_keys":["GT-M-01-04|GT-M-01-04-2023-FINAL||680","GT-M-01-04|GT-M-01-04-2019-FINAL||340","GT-M-01-04|GT-M-01-04-2015-FINAL||3"],"shares":[[0.24227562530652283,0.23320255026974007],[0.4894130259983918,0.1801125703564728],[0.4254155730533683,0.20231846019247596]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":39.728153499632704,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[24.227562530652282,23.320255026974007,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,17.55762628739578,34.894556154977934],[16.269096756901636,48.94130259983918,0,0,0,0,0,0,6.941838649155723,0,2.331814526936478,25.51594746716698],[10.717410323709537,0,0,2.2309711286089238,0,42.54155730533683,15.135608048993875,0,0,0,0,29.37445319335083]],"volatility_latest":32.5628862220209,"volatility_previous":63.76664220912348,"volatility_mean":48.16476421557219,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"YESSICA CLAUDETH PALENCIA PÉREZ","party":"UNE","date":"2023-08-20","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-01-05","country":"Guatemala","region":"Guatemala","name":"Palencia","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.897851488880512,16.366258111031005,22.87237058456654],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-01-05|GT-M-01-05-2023-FINAL||681","GT-M-01-05|GT-M-01-05-2019-FINAL||341","GT-M-01-05|GT-M-01-05-2015-FINAL||4"],"all_keys":["GT-M-01-05|GT-M-01-05-2023-FINAL||681","GT-M-01-05|GT-M-01-05-2019-FINAL||341","GT-M-01-05|GT-M-01-05-2015-FINAL||4"],"shares":[[0.3155995907597868,0.24662107587098162],[0.3356492101985974,0.17198662908828732],[0.47354992345637015,0.24482621761070475]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":43.320873074528684,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[7.780948791125949,31.559959075978675,0,0,0,0,0,1.2815680361854505,0,0,0,59.37752409670992],[33.56492101985974,10.218260470603658,0,6.60024906600249,0,0,0,17.198662908828734,4.817460837648293,1.6844727010552534,8.350265451923708,17.565707544078126],[7.427567046549867,0,0,3.039065600725747,0,47.354992345637015,24.482621761070476,0,0,0,0,17.695753246016896]],"volatility_latest":63.15351515800681,"volatility_previous":71.96765980864626,"volatility_mean":67.56058748332654,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"GUADALUPE ALBERTO REYES AGUILAR","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-01-06","country":"Guatemala","region":"Guatemala","name":"Chinautla","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.040939305460647,2.572224736227879,9.736248445109737],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-01-06|GT-M-01-06-2023-FINAL||682","GT-M-01-06|GT-M-01-06-2019-FINAL||342","GT-M-01-06|GT-M-01-06-2015-FINAL||5"],"all_keys":["GT-M-01-06|GT-M-01-06-2023-FINAL||682","GT-M-01-06|GT-M-01-06-2019-FINAL||342","GT-M-01-06|GT-M-01-06-2015-FINAL||5"],"shares":[[0.22265018326396224,0.19224079020935578],[0.16333627075047036,0.1376140233881916],[0.2879973013430035,0.19063481689190614]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":82.15072075672137,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[19.224079020935577,22.265018326396223,0.9877616947257253,0,2.935329564515127,0,0,1.7580915698577375,0.5031993539168789,1.5251289060073305,0,50.8013915636454],[16.333627075047037,6.72589134732179,0,0,2.9056612761092717,0,0,13.761402338819158,1.7719770405125397,11.43449162836116,3.7392526258127514,43.32769666801629],[9.890156226940187,0,7.1640909953406,7.0165081908456495,0,28.79973013430035,19.063481689190613,0,0,0,0,28.066032763382598]],"volatility_latest":26.920703803723665,"volatility_previous":62.04381100967721,"volatility_mean":44.48225740670044,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"BRENDA ELIZABETH DEL CID MEDRANO","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-01-07","country":"Guatemala","region":"Guatemala","name":"San Pedro Ayampuc","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.2873260408911307,10.540975488982419,14.356549815498155],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-01-07|GT-M-01-07-2023-FINAL||683","GT-M-01-07|GT-M-01-07-2019-FINAL||343","GT-M-01-07|GT-M-01-07-2015-FINAL||6"],"all_keys":["GT-M-01-07|GT-M-01-07-2023-FINAL||683","GT-M-01-07|GT-M-01-07-2019-FINAL||343","GT-M-01-07|GT-M-01-07-2015-FINAL||6"],"shares":[[0.292938548765821,0.2600652883569097],[0.3240901213171577,0.21868036642733352],[0.3071379151291513,0.16357241697416974]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":67.1482837361039,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[8.241223297634729,26.00652883569097,0,0,0,0,0,4.9538972567436,0,0,0,60.798350609930694],[32.40901213171577,9.1978212428819,0,21.86803664273335,1.4793265659816786,0,0,9.352562515474128,7.254270859123546,0,3.429066600643724,15.009903441445903],[30.71379151291513,0,6.861162361623617,2.952029520295203,0,13.191881918819188,16.357241697416974,0,0,0,0,29.923892988929886]],"volatility_latest":62.597154761293865,"volatility_previous":51.324275525343765,"volatility_mean":56.960715143318815,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"NELVI ELIDI QUIÑÓNEZ MORALES","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-01-08","country":"Guatemala","region":"Guatemala","name":"Mixco","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.8907511217162,41.40201818558056,4.755388493947169],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-01-08|GT-M-01-08-2023-FINAL||684","GT-M-01-08|GT-M-01-08-2019-FINAL||344","GT-M-01-08|GT-M-01-08-2015-FINAL||7"],"all_keys":["GT-M-01-08|GT-M-01-08-2023-FINAL||684","GT-M-01-08|GT-M-01-08-2019-FINAL||344","GT-M-01-08|GT-M-01-08-2015-FINAL||7"],"shares":[[0.3132299718001119,0.10432246058294992],[0.5083746180906358,0.09435443623483014],[0.2164879965477299,0.16893411160825822]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.197638972930391,3.273812921713914,1.0931738003630593,0,3.7082282021715054,0,0,0.7392480790966902,0.3036911027640457,1.5293016246332303,10.432246058294991,77.72265923803215],[3.371757574282132,9.435443623483014,50.837461809063576,0.4954170876291797,5.09719669397344,0,0,2.81182671357102,1.4363443818241575,1.3766995727484084,2.6888853724148842,22.44896717101018],[2.4830225533171317,0,3.4755502055463445,1.3701196938381521,3.6254514070271866,16.89341116082582,16.716823003020735,0,0,0,0,55.435621976424635]],"volatility_latest":63.16965480478691,"volatility_previous":67.47159157546997,"volatility_mean":65.32062319012844,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"NETO BRAN MONTENEGRO","party":"PPG","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-01-09","country":"Guatemala","region":"Guatemala","name":"San Pedro Sacatepéquez","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.8261803599560764,9.981791094189703,33.04062092799275],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-01-09|GT-M-01-09-2023-FINAL||685","GT-M-01-09|GT-M-01-09-2019-FINAL||345","GT-M-01-09|GT-M-01-09-2015-FINAL||8"],"all_keys":["GT-M-01-09|GT-M-01-09-2023-FINAL||685","GT-M-01-09|GT-M-01-09-2019-FINAL||345","GT-M-01-09|GT-M-01-09-2015-FINAL||8"],"shares":[[0.3104024442640951,0.2821406406645343],[0.3395685041107984,0.23975059316890138],[0.5833663815081299,0.2529601722282024]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":60.02846181485084,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[13.849238554446938,28.21406406645343,0,0,31.040244426409508,0,0,0,0,0,0,26.896452952690126],[17.899906196545825,23.97505931689014,0,0,20.493295811951665,0,0,33.95685041107984,0,3.6748882635325275,0,0],[5.648405189507677,0,0,0,0,25.296017222820236,58.33663815081299,0,0,0,0,10.7189394368591]],"volatility_latest":41.68240631671126,"volatility_previous":94.35159481049232,"volatility_mean":68.01700056360178,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JUAN LEONEL CULAJAY PÉREZ","party":"VIVA","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-01-10","country":"Guatemala","region":"Guatemala","name":"San Juan Sacatepéquez","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":2,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":2,"years":[2023,2019],"gaps":[5.567105567105564,1.7264645181774867,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-01-10|GT-M-01-10-2023-FINAL||686","GT-M-01-10|GT-M-01-10-2019-FINAL||346"],"all_keys":["GT-M-01-10|GT-M-01-10-2023-FINAL||686","GT-M-01-10|GT-M-01-10-2019-FINAL||346"],"shares":[[0.3422961422961423,0.2866250866250866],[0.2675027782187649,0.25023813303699],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[28.662508662508664,34.22961422961423,0.77000077000077,0,2.544082544082544,0,0,0.2494802494802495,0.49126049126049126,1.981981981981982,0,31.071071071071067],[8.765280203206858,2.2106683600571517,26.750277821876487,0,3.7426575646928084,0,0,1.694713446578822,8.709715827909191,25.023813303699,2.2940149230036515,20.808858548976026],null],"volatility_latest":62.17838685095393,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JUAN CARLOS PELLECER AGUSTÍN","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":2},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-01-11","country":"Guatemala","region":"Guatemala","name":"San Raimundo","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.4043054154053145,3.4473041517941,5.38082191780822],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-01-11|GT-M-01-11-2023-FINAL||687","GT-M-01-11|GT-M-01-11-2019-FINAL||347","GT-M-01-11|GT-M-01-11-2015-FINAL||9"],"all_keys":["GT-M-01-11|GT-M-01-11-2023-FINAL||687","GT-M-01-11|GT-M-01-11-2019-FINAL||347","GT-M-01-11|GT-M-01-11-2015-FINAL||9"],"shares":[[0.15354860410359905,0.13950554994954592],[0.23135449934247604,0.19688145782453503],[0.2755068493150685,0.22169863013698632]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":87.9257165671888,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[13.614194416414396,13.950554994954592,0,0,7.500840901446351,0,0,0,0,0,1.841574167507568,63.09283551967709],[19.688145782453503,15.836934059740747,0,23.135449934247603,0,0,0,0,11.901183543114785,0,2.2167950403907573,27.221491640052605],[17.041095890410958,0,5.435616438356164,11.956164383561644,2.7616438356164386,22.16986301369863,27.55068493150685,0,0,0,0,13.084931506849315]],"volatility_latest":43.372184781070835,"volatility_previous":57.917808219178085,"volatility_mean":50.64499650012446,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"FLORENTÍN LUIS ALVARO QUECHE SARCEÑO","party":"DESANRAY","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-01-12","country":"Guatemala","region":"Guatemala","name":"Chuarrancho","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.091351163598471,17.346938775510203,0.09308510638297562],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-01-12|GT-M-01-12-2023-FINAL||688","GT-M-01-12|GT-M-01-12-2019-FINAL||348","GT-M-01-12|GT-M-01-12-2015-FINAL||10"],"all_keys":["GT-M-01-12|GT-M-01-12-2023-FINAL||688","GT-M-01-12|GT-M-01-12-2019-FINAL||348","GT-M-01-12|GT-M-01-12-2015-FINAL||10"],"shares":[[0.2848211184439041,0.2539076068079194],[0.3413265306122449,0.16785714285714284],[0.27606382978723404,0.27513297872340425]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":64.6589957927478,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[7.861525992821582,28.482111844390413,0,0,4.584925321292116,0,0,2.616649299525298,0,0,0,56.45478754197059],[34.13265306122449,12.372448979591837,0,9.387755102040817,0,0,0,0,8.239795918367347,16.785714285714285,0,19.081632653061224],[27.513297872340427,0,11.263297872340425,4.242021276595745,0,27.606382978723403,4.747340425531915,0,0,0,0,24.627659574468083]],"volatility_latest":60.68439237452536,"volatility_previous":49.1630481980026,"volatility_mean":54.92372028626398,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"GERSON SAÚL AJCUC XOT","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-01-13","country":"Guatemala","region":"Guatemala","name":"Fraijanes","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.260523321956768,8.271988658051148,1.1158701532912545],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-01-13|GT-M-01-13-2023-FINAL||689","GT-M-01-13|GT-M-01-13-2019-FINAL||349","GT-M-01-13|GT-M-01-13-2015-FINAL||11"],"all_keys":["GT-M-01-13|GT-M-01-13-2023-FINAL||689","GT-M-01-13|GT-M-01-13-2019-FINAL||349","GT-M-01-13|GT-M-01-13-2015-FINAL||11"],"shares":[[0.4184300341296928,0.3258248009101251],[0.21533344239053384,0.13261355581002238],[0.23500901713255185,0.2238503155996393]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":59.252511970407355,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[6.703071672354949,32.58248009101251,0.6780432309442548,0,3.986348122866894,0,0,0,0,3.0716723549488054,0,52.97838452787258],[12.71606957849392,7.955722776596325,3.048148754021484,0,6.647036370576367,0,0,13.261355581002237,0,0,6.657942090626533,49.71372484868314],[11.164337240757439,0,4.593101893597836,23.500901713255185,3.837917042380523,22.38503155996393,4.012623985572588,0,0,0,0,30.506086564472497]],"volatility_latest":30.963089348554437,"volatility_previous":51.44351039836806,"volatility_mean":41.20329987346125,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"CARLOS DANIEL RUSTRIÁN ALVIZURES","party":"VALOR","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-01-14","country":"Guatemala","region":"Guatemala","name":"Amatitlán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.4160132067684685,34.42988944777685,20.76339869281046],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-01-14|GT-M-01-14-2023-FINAL||690","GT-M-01-14|GT-M-01-14-2019-FINAL||350","GT-M-01-14|GT-M-01-14-2015-FINAL||12"],"all_keys":["GT-M-01-14|GT-M-01-14-2023-FINAL||690","GT-M-01-14|GT-M-01-14-2019-FINAL||350","GT-M-01-14|GT-M-01-14-2015-FINAL||12"],"shares":[[0.21655215945230755,0.17239202738462286],[0.44998251607176476,0.10568362159399629],[0.4551633986928105,0.2475294117647059]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":24.72542686162409,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[7.80024762690879,4.282488893204826,0.35687407443373553,0,2.4714136583234203,0,0,0.7186035784516035,0.5146755359180404,0,0,83.8556966327596],[10.568362159399628,2.2540818247841408,2.5311348414342203,0.40347526696613495,2.0254458401699975,0,0,3.2251123006159723,4.459746617532345,0.5729348790919117,10.006186620760147,63.9535196492455],[45.51633986928105,0,3.89281045751634,4.308496732026144,0,4.836601307189542,24.75294117647059,0,0,0,0,16.692810457516337]],"volatility_latest":22.3765518700882,"volatility_previous":69.80421727468368,"volatility_mean":46.09038457238594,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MAINOR GUILLERMO ORELLANA MAZARIEGOS","party":"VALOR","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-01-15","country":"Guatemala","region":"Guatemala","name":"Villa Nueva","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.0139371054596058,1.1099789529950215,9.980721133805751],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-01-15|GT-M-01-15-2023-FINAL||691","GT-M-01-15|GT-M-01-15-2019-FINAL||351","GT-M-01-15|GT-M-01-15-2015-FINAL||13"],"all_keys":["GT-M-01-15|GT-M-01-15-2023-FINAL||691","GT-M-01-15|GT-M-01-15-2019-FINAL||351","GT-M-01-15|GT-M-01-15-2015-FINAL||13"],"shares":[[0.1468795523891663,0.13674018133457025],[0.12306651521731866,0.11196672568736846],[0.2668386133111018,0.1670314019730443]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":90.30285968722578,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[3.889778731237815,13.674018133457025,1.06829399102749,0,4.537712807206998,0,0,1.1980257579161744,0.3804981989751915,1.1835305884314051,11.875167600397168,62.19297419135074],[8.663515183910734,10.180235860087528,11.196672568736846,1.9752447131927973,5.625897838505996,0,0,2.7762001804029,0,7.339725386696957,3.0301005579126716,49.21240771055356],[9.348513269417813,0,16.703140197304432,4.572217590662776,0,26.683861331110183,0,0,0,0,0,42.692267611504796]],"volatility_latest":25.699913995626357,"volatility_previous":35.47229992265483,"volatility_mean":30.586106959140594,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MYNOR ALEXANDER MORALES ZURITA","party":"VALOR","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-01-16","country":"Guatemala","region":"Guatemala","name":"Villa Canales","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.352475001037302,3.7192223648937848,17.807417571330564],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-01-16|GT-M-01-16-2023-FINAL||692","GT-M-01-16|GT-M-01-16-2019-FINAL||352","GT-M-01-16|GT-M-01-16-2015-FINAL||14"],"all_keys":["GT-M-01-16|GT-M-01-16-2023-FINAL||692","GT-M-01-16|GT-M-01-16-2019-FINAL||352","GT-M-01-16|GT-M-01-16-2015-FINAL||14"],"shares":[[0.2629351479191735,0.20941039790880048],[0.26311639746795523,0.22592417381901736],[0.4354695508293313,0.25739537511602567]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":69.46003266388213,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[20.941039790880048,9.835691465084436,2.1907804655408487,0,0,0,0,0,0.8236172772913987,1.3505663665408074,6.041243101945978,58.81706153271649],[26.31163974679552,2.989344686986101,0,0,1.9283188033610417,0,0,2.412651213083733,3.482687932238517,22.592417381901736,0,40.28294023563334],[9.336534969127083,0,5.066790427378022,1.0755074861778118,2.5646716978086284,25.739537511602567,43.54695508293313,0,0,0,0,12.67000282497276]],"volatility_latest":33.6124916426683,"volatility_previous":76.0651434025391,"volatility_mean":54.838817522603705,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"RAMIRO RIVERA HERNÁNDEZ","party":"VALOR","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-01-17","country":"Guatemala","region":"Guatemala","name":"Petapa","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.757733971921315,2.4038110978781333,9.226161249140723],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-01-17|GT-M-01-17-2023-FINAL||693","GT-M-01-17|GT-M-01-17-2019-FINAL||353","GT-M-01-17|GT-M-01-17-2015-FINAL||15"],"all_keys":["GT-M-01-17|GT-M-01-17-2023-FINAL||693","GT-M-01-17|GT-M-01-17-2019-FINAL||353","GT-M-01-17|GT-M-01-17-2015-FINAL||15"],"shares":[[0.26621307734999694,0.1286357376307838],[0.2546241158884865,0.23058600490970516],[0.2570460571540803,0.16478444466267309]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":50.50800081284849,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[10.863532652264178,3.5519743468519396,2.4070381713909845,0,2.435815741330757,0,0,0,0,0.5488293695656642,12.863573763078378,67.32923595551812],[10.791629195731959,2.1291592737525216,3.9229030454755365,2.2215200641664437,3.239919305835744,0,0,3.5267238655421336,1.4510366283450404,23.058600490970516,4.887830250589408,44.77067787959069],[11.671413139546303,0,6.569773151330649,1.9125012275360895,3.039379357753118,10.330943729745654,25.704605715408032,0,0,0,0,40.771383678680166]],"volatility_latest":32.02902011804802,"volatility_previous":39.56220349482314,"volatility_mean":35.79561180643557,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MYNOR ROLANDO MORALES CHAVEZ","party":"VALOR","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-02-01","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sacatepéquez","name":"Antigua Guatemala","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.6560883063125225,3.574493649158942,8.961511718270685],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-02-01|GT-M-02-01-2023-FINAL||694","GT-M-02-01|GT-M-02-01-2019-FINAL||354","GT-M-02-01|GT-M-02-01-2015-FINAL||16"],"all_keys":["GT-M-02-01|GT-M-02-01-2023-FINAL||694","GT-M-02-01|GT-M-02-01-2019-FINAL||354","GT-M-02-01|GT-M-02-01-2015-FINAL||16"],"shares":[[0.2507761296998965,0.22421524663677128],[0.18327325780981807,0.14752832131822863],[0.27857990101844654,0.1889647838357397]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":82.18923874818867,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.379786133149362,4.637614503085355,22.42152466367713,0,0.8776972902533441,0,0,0,0,0,6.561649610976965,64.12172779885785],[12.723137658771027,4.587195331273601,18.327325780981806,0.5063508410573292,4.6429797459663575,0,0,1.4503947820116718,0,10.70202540336423,1.085650532097494,45.97493992447648],[2.859012638553724,0,18.89647838357397,1.075708617939384,0,14.961757127080862,1.5624360914556832,13.276616630537037,0,0,0,47.36799051085935]],"volatility_latest":27.767405007767913,"volatility_previous":30.881976032918992,"volatility_mean":29.324690520343452,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JUAN MANUEL ASTURJAS SUEIRAS","party":"FUTURO","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-02-02","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sacatepéquez","name":"Jocotenango","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.556965676377271,14.752507279197673,14.183891660727017],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-02-02|GT-M-02-02-2023-FINAL||695","GT-M-02-02|GT-M-02-02-2019-FINAL||355","GT-M-02-02|GT-M-02-02-2015-FINAL||17"],"all_keys":["GT-M-02-02|GT-M-02-02-2023-FINAL||695","GT-M-02-02|GT-M-02-02-2019-FINAL||355","GT-M-02-02|GT-M-02-02-2015-FINAL||17"],"shares":[[0.3272762234400538,0.2517065666762811],[0.33592149250512243,0.1883964197131457],[0.38845331432644337,0.24661439771917318]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":48.10839622170817,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[13.681376790693202,1.5383136236900299,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,4.297663686184021,80.48264589943274],[5.0361263884395555,18.83964197131457,0,0,0,0,0,4.033214709371293,0,17.66418634746037,0,54.426830583414215],[12.208532735973934,0,0,3.2074126870990733,0,24.66143977191732,0,0,0,0,0,59.92261480500967]],"volatility_latest":38.9987294044562,"volatility_previous":40.53704302814623,"volatility_mean":39.767886216301214,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"GERALD IVAN MEOÑO RODAS","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-02-03","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sacatepéquez","name":"Pastores","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.015240030480058,5.850044705581809,5.158202605689979],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-02-03|GT-M-02-03-2023-FINAL||696","GT-M-02-03|GT-M-02-03-2019-FINAL||356","GT-M-02-03|GT-M-02-03-2015-FINAL||18"],"all_keys":["GT-M-02-03|GT-M-02-03-2023-FINAL||696","GT-M-02-03|GT-M-02-03-2019-FINAL||356","GT-M-02-03|GT-M-02-03-2015-FINAL||18"],"shares":[[0.5673101346202692,0.36715773431546866],[0.4377315110486652,0.3792310639928471],[0.48577505982451474,0.434193033767615]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":28.600111547342124,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.572009144018288,1.9812039624079247,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,93.44678689357379],[37.92310639928471,16.311150849406054,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.992591646442713,0,43.77315110486652],[43.4193033767615,0,2.964637064610476,0,0,0,0.9438978994948152,0,0,0,0,52.67216165913321]],"volatility_latest":49.673635788707266,"volatility_previous":18.303742495848766,"volatility_mean":33.98868914227802,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JOSE LIZANDRO ZAMORA CHAMALE","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-02-04","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sacatepéquez","name":"Sumpango","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.4985687826233374,4.690297171500177,5.1854425432120195],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-02-04|GT-M-02-04-2023-FINAL||697","GT-M-02-04|GT-M-02-04-2019-FINAL||357","GT-M-02-04|GT-M-02-04-2015-FINAL||19"],"all_keys":["GT-M-02-04|GT-M-02-04-2023-FINAL||697","GT-M-02-04|GT-M-02-04-2019-FINAL||357","GT-M-02-04|GT-M-02-04-2015-FINAL||19"],"shares":[[0.22200707189762586,0.20702138407139248],[0.2794486215538847,0.23254564983888293],[0.2663076522192304,0.21445322678711023]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":85.8761266232737,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[3.249705337598922,16.012796767132514,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,80.73749789526856],[6.793770139634801,8.592910848549947,7.617257429287505,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,76.99606158252774],[8.338400069486667,0,11.40449926170416,2.1627725180231043,0,26.630765221923042,8.88560757404673,0,0,0,0,42.57795535481629]],"volatility_latest":11.161322231323384,"volatility_previous":43.0110170762614,"volatility_mean":27.086169653792393,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"CARLOS ENRIQUE CUBUR SULA","party":"CC SOMOS SUMPANGO","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-02-05","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sacatepéquez","name":"Santo Domingo Xenacoj","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.9185459441265564,19.63090284060069,4.5935037478377865],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-02-05|GT-M-02-05-2023-FINAL||698","GT-M-02-05|GT-M-02-05-2019-FINAL||358","GT-M-02-05|GT-M-02-05-2015-FINAL||20"],"all_keys":["GT-M-02-05|GT-M-02-05-2023-FINAL||698","GT-M-02-05|GT-M-02-05-2019-FINAL||358","GT-M-02-05|GT-M-02-05-2015-FINAL||20"],"shares":[[0.3174015483002356,0.29821608885897005],[0.4400217115976118,0.24371268319160486],[0.3628675763982318,0.3169325389198539]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":62.5012560328004,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.072702793672164,29.821608885897003,0,0,0.7236620666442275,0,0,0,0,0,0,65.3820262537866],[2.062601773113805,24.371268319160485,8.539895060611544,0,4.993667450696581,0,0,0,0,7.49050117604487,1.0855798805862131,51.4564863397865],[3.8631558716125314,0,36.28675763982318,2.0372861810493945,0,31.693253891985393,24.90870651547184,0,0,0,0,1.210839900057659]],"volatility_latest":21.38598150129498,"volatility_previous":88.186663266217,"volatility_mean":54.78632238375599,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"DAVID ANICETO AQUINO CHOCOYO","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-02-06","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sacatepéquez","name":"Santiago Sacatepéquez","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.861868833430066,6.578811901575207,8.008888030142014],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-02-06|GT-M-02-06-2023-FINAL||699","GT-M-02-06|GT-M-02-06-2019-FINAL||359","GT-M-02-06|GT-M-02-06-2015-FINAL||21"],"all_keys":["GT-M-02-06|GT-M-02-06-2023-FINAL||699","GT-M-02-06|GT-M-02-06-2019-FINAL||359","GT-M-02-06|GT-M-02-06-2015-FINAL||21"],"shares":[[0.287966724704972,0.2293480363706713],[0.30279007515700607,0.237001956141254],[0.32615206260264706,0.24606318230122692]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":68.541731632276,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.2344747533372025,11.462565293093443,28.796672470497196,0,5.494292899980654,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.0119945830915],[12.817872953773293,0,23.7001956141254,0,2.460619787913106,0,0,0,0,0.6177288170493154,5.085967260372696,55.3176155667662],[11.45783016133707,0,24.606318230122692,0,0,4.212153415128973,9.738189546903682,0,0,0,0,49.985508646507576]],"volatility_latest":19.592715261532796,"volatility_previous":14.856465578029956,"volatility_mean":17.224590419781375,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MANUEL AUGUST0 NAVAS Y NAVAS","party":"TODOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-02-07","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sacatepéquez","name":"San Bartolomé Milpas Altas","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.143191116306252,10.656517602283536,1.3001083423618667],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-02-07|GT-M-02-07-2023-FINAL||700","GT-M-02-07|GT-M-02-07-2019-FINAL||360","GT-M-02-07|GT-M-02-07-2015-FINAL||22"],"all_keys":["GT-M-02-07|GT-M-02-07-2023-FINAL||700","GT-M-02-07|GT-M-02-07-2019-FINAL||360","GT-M-02-07|GT-M-02-07-2015-FINAL||22"],"shares":[[0.24663939216832262,0.1952074810052601],[0.35426577862353315,0.24770060260069776],[0.3994221740700614,0.38642109064644276]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":67.93559607647501,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[3.5943892460549387,17.44593804792519,0.46756282875511396,0,9.000584453535945,0,0,0,0,0,0,69.49152542372882],[10.244211861718998,4.313352362829051,24.770060260069776,0,6.438312718046305,0,0,0,0,4.9476688867745,0,49.286393910561365],[39.94221740700614,0,1.7695919104369808,0,9.750812567713977,38.64210906464427,0,0,0,0,0,9.895269050198628]],"volatility_latest":35.89998893375323,"volatility_previous":71.65261445959909,"volatility_mean":53.77630169667616,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"RUBEN ERNESTO AXPUAC VELASQUEZ","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-02-08","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sacatepéquez","name":"San Lucas Sacatepéquez","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.597841002653002,3.0548926014319804,30.512270224876364],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-02-08|GT-M-02-08-2023-FINAL||701","GT-M-02-08|GT-M-02-08-2019-FINAL||361","GT-M-02-08|GT-M-02-08-2015-FINAL||23"],"all_keys":["GT-M-02-08|GT-M-02-08-2023-FINAL||701","GT-M-02-08|GT-M-02-08-2019-FINAL||361","GT-M-02-08|GT-M-02-08-2015-FINAL||23"],"shares":[[0.3551367669929558,0.19915835696642578],[0.24343675417661095,0.21288782816229115],[0.5465148828963329,0.2413921806475693]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":33.368002977454836,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[35.51367669929558,19.915835696642578,0,0,4.912633793797457,0,0,0,0,0,0,39.65785381026439],[24.343675417661096,7.579952267303103,9.393794749403341,0,10.214797136038186,0,0,21.288782816229116,0,2.6730310262529833,0,24.505966587112173],[54.65148828963329,0,24.13921806475693,3.284501259680881,2.696650181953905,2.780628907343473,4.1802743305029395,0,0,0,0,8.26723896612858]],"volatility_latest":38.657771934126174,"volatility_previous":55.298640684853076,"volatility_mean":46.97820630948962,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"YENER HAROLDO PLAZA NATARENO","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-02-09","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sacatepéquez","name":"Santa Lucía Milpas Altas","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.774476704929103,11.28957528957529,5.190920288579974],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-02-09|GT-M-02-09-2023-FINAL||702","GT-M-02-09|GT-M-02-09-2019-FINAL||362","GT-M-02-09|GT-M-02-09-2015-FINAL||24"],"all_keys":["GT-M-02-09|GT-M-02-09-2023-FINAL||702","GT-M-02-09|GT-M-02-09-2019-FINAL||362","GT-M-02-09|GT-M-02-09-2015-FINAL||24"],"shares":[[0.41742066171505743,0.27967589466576637],[0.45837837837837836,0.3454826254826255],[0.3190216434981524,0.2671124406123526]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":39.146746806559776,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[5.347738014854828,0.4861580013504389,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2.187711006076975,91.97839297771777],[4.33976833976834,8.67953667953668,45.83783783783784,0.6023166023166023,0,0,0,1.5752895752895753,0,34.54826254826255,0,4.416988416988417],[2.023579095548126,0,26.711244061235263,0.8094316382192503,0,7.548829843392574,31.902164349815237,0,0,0,0,31.004751011789548]],"volatility_latest":90.75708524189281,"volatility_previous":66.24587182391159,"volatility_mean":78.5014785329022,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"LUIS ORLANDO GUERRA OLIVA","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-02-10","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sacatepéquez","name":"Magdalena Milpas Altas","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.085029216199882,0.14789773927741123,1.1287171695246343],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-02-10|GT-M-02-10-2023-FINAL||703","GT-M-02-10|GT-M-02-10-2019-FINAL||363","GT-M-02-10|GT-M-02-10-2015-FINAL||25"],"all_keys":["GT-M-02-10|GT-M-02-10-2023-FINAL||703","GT-M-02-10|GT-M-02-10-2019-FINAL||363","GT-M-02-10|GT-M-02-10-2015-FINAL||25"],"shares":[[0.2468265162200282,0.1859762240580294],[0.2053665751109233,0.20388759771814918],[0.24484480138919035,0.233557629693944]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":80.95870715772192,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[11.404392504533549,5.621599838807173,0,0,3.9492242595204514,0,0,0,0,0,0,79.02478339713883],[20.53665751109233,0,20.388759771814918,0,6.845552503697443,0,0,19.945066553982674,0,8.535812381153603,0,23.74815127825903],[2.2791404384632084,0,9.485565443889733,12.546125461254613,0,23.3557629693944,5.990883438246147,0,0,0,0,46.3425222487519]],"volatility_latest":60.898231957686974,"volatility_previous":64.48714283938803,"volatility_mean":62.6926873985375,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ERICK NOEL MARTINEZ LOPEZ","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-02-11","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sacatepéquez","name":"Santa María De Jesús","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.1483538815878624,1.72949002217295,22.808257918552037],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-02-11|GT-M-02-11-2023-FINAL||704","GT-M-02-11|GT-M-02-11-2019-FINAL||364","GT-M-02-11|GT-M-02-11-2015-FINAL||26"],"all_keys":["GT-M-02-11|GT-M-02-11-2023-FINAL||704","GT-M-02-11|GT-M-02-11-2019-FINAL||364","GT-M-02-11|GT-M-02-11-2015-FINAL||26"],"shares":[[0.2217856658989297,0.17030212708305106],[0.2,0.1827050997782705],[0.35888009049773756,0.1307975113122172]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":70.55657436270097,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[17.030212708305108,15.201192250372578,0,0,2.9670776317572143,0,0,0,0,0,0,64.8015174095651],[20.0,7.228381374722838,13.7620103473762,0,5.528455284552845,0,0,8.839615668883962,0,18.27050997782705,2.6164079822616406,23.75461936437546],[12.005090497737557,0,7.084276018099548,4.8076923076923075,0,35.88800904977376,13.07975113122172,0,0,0,0,27.13518099547511]],"volatility_latest":49.01970892083938,"volatility_previous":57.156014119787436,"volatility_mean":53.08786152031341,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MARIO JERONIMO PEREZ PIO","party":"PPN","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-02-12","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sacatepéquez","name":"Ciudad Vieja","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[32.80873753009976,5.10634028892456,7.310053722179585],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-02-12|GT-M-02-12-2023-FINAL||705","GT-M-02-12|GT-M-02-12-2019-FINAL||365","GT-M-02-12|GT-M-02-12-2015-FINAL||27"],"all_keys":["GT-M-02-12|GT-M-02-12-2023-FINAL||705","GT-M-02-12|GT-M-02-12-2019-FINAL||365","GT-M-02-12|GT-M-02-12-2015-FINAL||27"],"shares":[[0.48830409356725146,0.16021671826625386],[0.29875601926163725,0.24769261637239165],[0.34669992325402915,0.2735993860322333]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[10.096319229446165,13.106295149638802,0,0,1.5823873409012728,0,0,0.3783969728242174,0,0,0,74.83660130718954],[8.126003210272874,22.963483146067414,2.7287319422150884,0,0,0,0,4.44422150882825,0,5.417335473515249,0,56.32022471910113],[5.861473522640061,0,9.228702993092863,1.4293937068303915,0,27.35993860322333,34.669992325402916,0,0,0,0,21.450498848810437]],"volatility_latest":22.06907994816298,"volatility_previous":69.95929568633441,"volatility_mean":46.0141878172487,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"CLEMENTE FEDERICO ARTURO BETHANCOURT SANCHEZ","party":"LBRE CIUDAD VIEJA","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-02-13","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sacatepéquez","name":"San Miguel Dueñas","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.32043381809218374,16.73718852844382,30.087440381558025],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-02-13|GT-M-02-13-2023-FINAL||706","GT-M-02-13|GT-M-02-13-2019-FINAL||366","GT-M-02-13|GT-M-02-13-2015-FINAL||28"],"all_keys":["GT-M-02-13|GT-M-02-13-2023-FINAL||706","GT-M-02-13|GT-M-02-13-2019-FINAL||366","GT-M-02-13|GT-M-02-13-2015-FINAL||28"],"shares":[[0.3704707912250431,0.3672664530441213],[0.382228490832158,0.2148566055477198],[0.6504372019077901,0.34956279809220986]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":58.88919556227871,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[5.891052501848657,37.047079122504314,0,0,3.771259551392655,0,0,0,0,0,0,53.29060882425438],[21.48566055477198,3.0324400564174896,0,0,0,0,0,19.699106723084157,0,38.2228490832158,0,17.559943582510577],[0,0,65.04372019077901,0,0,34.95627980922099,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":73.51656385922328,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":86.75828192961164,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"EDUARDO MORALES MEDIO","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-02-14","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sacatepéquez","name":"Alotenango","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.649196956889263,3.0253371990419744,8.60148514851485],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-02-14|GT-M-02-14-2023-FINAL||707","GT-M-02-14|GT-M-02-14-2019-FINAL||367","GT-M-02-14|GT-M-02-14-2015-FINAL||29"],"all_keys":["GT-M-02-14|GT-M-02-14-2023-FINAL||707","GT-M-02-14|GT-M-02-14-2019-FINAL||367","GT-M-02-14|GT-M-02-14-2015-FINAL||29"],"shares":[[0.22811254679386547,0.18162057722497285],[0.2890457582251355,0.25879238623471573],[0.30074257425742573,0.21472772277227722]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":77.21366075651183,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[11.616954474097332,18.162057722497284,0,0,2.596304794106992,0,0,7.245501750996256,0,0,0,60.37918125830215],[3.0001260557166267,3.0127316273793014,25.879238623471576,0,0,0,0,11.609731501323585,0,3.126181772343376,0,53.37199041976554],[11.138613861386139,0,21.472772277227723,1.868811881188119,2.772277227722772,30.074257425742573,20.037128712871286,0,0,0,0,12.636138613861386]],"volatility_latest":33.369650146142284,"volatility_previous":62.89096305319427,"volatility_mean":48.13030659966827,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"SERGIO GONZALO SUL CIVIL","party":"ELEFANTE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-02-15","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sacatepéquez","name":"San Antonio Aguas Calientes","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.843416370106759,10.902959910078682,4.502098435711559],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-02-15|GT-M-02-15-2023-FINAL||708","GT-M-02-15|GT-M-02-15-2019-FINAL||368","GT-M-02-15|GT-M-02-15-2015-FINAL||30"],"all_keys":["GT-M-02-15|GT-M-02-15-2023-FINAL||708","GT-M-02-15|GT-M-02-15-2019-FINAL||368","GT-M-02-15|GT-M-02-15-2015-FINAL||30"],"shares":[[0.34003558718861204,0.20160142348754448],[0.3379542899962533,0.22892469089546646],[0.36951545211751236,0.3244944677603968]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":39.864261806705926,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.5516014234875445,10.177935943060499,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,89.27046263345196],[2.7538403896590484,5.207943049831398,22.892469089546648,0,0,0,0,0,0,20.23229674035219,6.781566129636568,42.13188460097415],[3.910721098817245,0,5.265165967188096,0,0,36.95154521175124,0,0,0,0,0,53.87256772224342]],"volatility_latest":52.10857092570691,"volatility_previous":49.8491090421787,"volatility_mean":50.978839983942805,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ALDO NORMANDO LOPEZ MICAN","party":"VOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-02-16","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sacatepéquez","name":"Santa Catarina Barahona","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.335380416240191,10.123272319760929,21.549534292972055],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-02-16|GT-M-02-16-2023-FINAL||709","GT-M-02-16|GT-M-02-16-2019-FINAL||369","GT-M-02-16|GT-M-02-16-2015-FINAL||31"],"all_keys":["GT-M-02-16|GT-M-02-16-2023-FINAL||709","GT-M-02-16|GT-M-02-16-2019-FINAL||369","GT-M-02-16|GT-M-02-16-2015-FINAL||31"],"shares":[[0.37291026953258277,0.2995564653701808],[0.4770265222263728,0.37579379902876353],[0.4966130397967824,0.28111769686706184]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":52.034183125152,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.8529512111907199,14.73899692937564,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,84.40805185943364],[37.579379902876354,0,47.70265222263728,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,14.717967874486366],[1.3124470787468248,0,18.035563082133784,0,0,28.111769686706182,49.66130397967824,0,0,0,0,2.8789161727349706]],"volatility_latest":84.42908091432292,"volatility_previous":77.77307366638442,"volatility_mean":81.10107729035367,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ELMER NEFTALI ORDOÑEZ LOPEZ","party":"CC SOMOS SANTA CATARINA BARAHONA","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-03-01","country":"Guatemala","region":"Chimaltenango","name":"Chimaltenango","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.1717028921482004,0.8158062460165709,15.223605073542547],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-03-01|GT-M-03-01-2023-FINAL||710","GT-M-03-01|GT-M-03-01-2019-FINAL||370","GT-M-03-01|GT-M-03-01-2015-FINAL||32"],"all_keys":["GT-M-03-01|GT-M-03-01-2023-FINAL||710","GT-M-03-01|GT-M-03-01-2019-FINAL||370","GT-M-03-01|GT-M-03-01-2015-FINAL||32"],"shares":[[0.23437592036284385,0.18265889144136185],[0.18205863607393244,0.17390057361376673],[0.3129875543381171,0.16075150360269158]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":75.64937941775926,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-03-02|GT-M-03-02-2023-FINAL||711","GT-M-03-02|GT-M-03-02-2019-FINAL||371","GT-M-03-02|GT-M-03-02-2015-FINAL||33"],"all_keys":["GT-M-03-02|GT-M-03-02-2023-FINAL||711","GT-M-03-02|GT-M-03-02-2019-FINAL||371","GT-M-03-02|GT-M-03-02-2015-FINAL||33"],"shares":[[0.5425918449737586,0.28720226079935407],[0.28412229736165345,0.20678159824745215],[0.3708010335917313,0.30131044665928386]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":8.307490533926087,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.5098909971740009,28.720226079935404,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,69.76988292289059],[17.496904467092104,28.412229736165347,0,0,5.000476235831984,0,0,1.8668444613772741,0,0,0,47.22354509953328],[17.29420450350683,0,37.08010335917313,0,0,30.131044665928385,15.494647471391657,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":22.854334167127362,"volatility_previous":82.70579549649317,"volatility_mean":52.780064831810265,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JUAN AROLDO SANTELEL SISIMIT","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-03-03","country":"Guatemala","region":"Chimaltenango","name":"San Martín Jilotepeque","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.598259443204082,5.015061036833483,11.704312114989733],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-03-03|GT-M-03-03-2023-FINAL||712","GT-M-03-03|GT-M-03-03-2019-FINAL||372","GT-M-03-03|GT-M-03-03-2015-FINAL||34"],"all_keys":["GT-M-03-03|GT-M-03-03-2023-FINAL||712","GT-M-03-03|GT-M-03-03-2019-FINAL||372","GT-M-03-03|GT-M-03-03-2015-FINAL||34"],"shares":[[0.28395680503030024,0.17797421059825944],[0.22158220155366487,0.17143159118533002],[0.3214693132557609,0.20442619210586357]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":54.83047405764266,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-03-04|GT-M-03-04-2023-FINAL||713","GT-M-03-04|GT-M-03-04-2019-FINAL||373","GT-M-03-04|GT-M-03-04-2015-FINAL||35"],"all_keys":["GT-M-03-04|GT-M-03-04-2023-FINAL||713","GT-M-03-04|GT-M-03-04-2019-FINAL||373","GT-M-03-04|GT-M-03-04-2015-FINAL||35"],"shares":[[0.33203476176206176,0.26832484267305967],[0.4070915072499086,0.19440721335445355],[0.2371958079223163,0.19397240807626265]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":46.823210196678424,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.840875037458795,33.20347617620617,4.872640095894516,0,1.4563979622415344,0,0,0,0,0,0,57.626610728198976],[40.70915072499086,1.4134275618374559,3.027903009625929,0,1.5718289265261363,0,0,3.6188619471183134,0,0,2.5344218350188865,47.12440599488242],[19.397240807626265,0,23.71958079223163,6.376931730712298,3.801290780981704,11.303215110426905,7.6558706850612825,0,0,0,0,27.745870092959915]],"volatility_latest":44.13699043395386,"volatility_previous":48.25715716326176,"volatility_mean":46.19707379860781,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JUSTO RUFINO SIMILOX PICHIYA","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-03-05","country":"Guatemala","region":"Chimaltenango","name":"Santa Apolonia","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.679356446861547,4.5931942304999325,28.587491215741395],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-03-05|GT-M-03-05-2023-FINAL||714","GT-M-03-05|GT-M-03-05-2019-FINAL||374","GT-M-03-05|GT-M-03-05-2015-FINAL||36"],"all_keys":["GT-M-03-05|GT-M-03-05-2023-FINAL||714","GT-M-03-05|GT-M-03-05-2019-FINAL||374","GT-M-03-05|GT-M-03-05-2015-FINAL||36"],"shares":[[0.35780648085202815,0.31101291638341266],[0.4026046772160762,0.35667273491107687],[0.6220660576247365,0.33619114546732254]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":64.77839370579477,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-03-06|GT-M-03-06-2023-FINAL||715","GT-M-03-06|GT-M-03-06-2019-FINAL||375","GT-M-03-06|GT-M-03-06-2015-FINAL||37"],"all_keys":["GT-M-03-06|GT-M-03-06-2023-FINAL||715","GT-M-03-06|GT-M-03-06-2019-FINAL||375","GT-M-03-06|GT-M-03-06-2015-FINAL||37"],"shares":[[0.21596937128096313,0.15766409889755062],[0.23458818842744747,0.11388307937456428],[0.3026255811833348,0.2507521196098095]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":61.8089788483675,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[6.97910420222335,21.596937128096314,15.766409889755062,0,0,0,0,0,0,5.848978273905623,0,49.80857050601965],[10.432227865750423,5.228562892142217,2.7088935365003484,0,0,0,0,7.509212229857584,0,0,0,74.12110347574944],[10.520557936001458,0,0,0,2.338408241407603,30.262558118333484,25.075211960980948,0,0,0,0,31.80326374327651]],"volatility_latest":35.27486886311444,"volatility_previous":57.76450839097307,"volatility_mean":46.519688627043756,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"FLAVIANO SALOMON DIAZ","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-03-07","country":"Guatemala","region":"Chimaltenango","name":"Patzún","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.5606707728274074,3.113920147988285,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-03-07|GT-M-03-07-2023-FINAL||716","GT-M-03-07|GT-M-03-07-2019-FINAL||376","GT-M-03-07|GT-M-03-07-2015-FINAL||38"],"all_keys":["GT-M-03-07|GT-M-03-07-2023-FINAL||716","GT-M-03-07|GT-M-03-07-2019-FINAL||376","GT-M-03-07|GT-M-03-07-2015-FINAL||38"],"shares":[[0.23157847412669155,0.19597176639841749],[0.2891423873387801,0.25800318585889725],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[18.288899878613496,23.157847412669156,3.6685698871555097,0,2.953738254731826,0,0,0,0,14.26965786989165,0,37.66128669693836],[25.800318585889727,28.914238733878012,2.1427470325265916,1.6545912337495503,0,0,0,3.9463542469554493,0,0,1.2178202558964082,36.323929911104265],null],"volatility_latest":20.086575765086494,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"GUADALUPE COJTI XULU","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":2,"Final source with documented extraction/source reconciliation limits":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-03-08","country":"Guatemala","region":"Chimaltenango","name":"Pochuta","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.8691206543967276,13.682634730538922,4.058624577226606],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-03-08|GT-M-03-08-2023-FINAL||717","GT-M-03-08|GT-M-03-08-2019-FINAL||377","GT-M-03-08|GT-M-03-08-2015-FINAL||39"],"all_keys":["GT-M-03-08|GT-M-03-08-2023-FINAL||717","GT-M-03-08|GT-M-03-08-2019-FINAL||377","GT-M-03-08|GT-M-03-08-2015-FINAL||39"],"shares":[[0.29984662576687116,0.2911554192229039],[0.3446107784431138,0.20778443113772455],[0.3131341600901916,0.2725479143179256]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":74.83937365238813,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[29.11554192229039,23.312883435582823,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.2556237218813906,0,47.315950920245406],[34.461077844311376,5.449101796407185,0,3.532934131736527,14.341317365269461,0,0,3.1736526946107784,0,0,0,39.04191616766467],[27.254791431792558,0,1.9729425028184893,1.8883878241262684,2.480270574971815,31.313416009019164,19.870349492671927,0,0,0,0,15.219842164599775]],"volatility_latest":26.39344011363776,"volatility_previous":53.15670800450958,"volatility_mean":39.775074059073674,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"LESTER JOEL GARCIA GUERRERO","party":"VALOR","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-03-09","country":"Guatemala","region":"Chimaltenango","name":"Patzicía","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.113676731793962,5.8308569592803785,1.144950767117015],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-03-09|GT-M-03-09-2023-FINAL||718","GT-M-03-09|GT-M-03-09-2019-FINAL||378","GT-M-03-09|GT-M-03-09-2015-FINAL||40"],"all_keys":["GT-M-03-09|GT-M-03-09-2023-FINAL||718","GT-M-03-09|GT-M-03-09-2019-FINAL||378","GT-M-03-09|GT-M-03-09-2015-FINAL||40"],"shares":[[0.39865008880994673,0.1975133214920071],[0.23741064974700826,0.17910208015420448],[0.1702160140447294,0.15876650637355927]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":30.34020898213903,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.2930728241563054,19.75133214920071,15.779751332149202,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,63.175843694493786],[2.072122721066581,23.741064974700826,2.200626455706369,3.7185768211388646,10.22407838727813,0,0,0,0,3.7105453377238775,0,54.332985302385346],[6.854438592473857,0,3.9233646286543014,15.876650637355928,13.449355011067857,14.96832302877643,12.80818258148233,0,0,0,0,32.1196855201893]],"volatility_latest":22.42198326855127,"volatility_previous":49.66491009462075,"volatility_mean":36.04344668158601,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"SERGIO ELEAZAR ESQUIT CAN","party":"SAMAJEL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-03-10","country":"Guatemala","region":"Chimaltenango","name":"Santa Cruz Balanyá","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.561716592309324,15.89622641509434,15.384615384615383],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-03-10|GT-M-03-10-2023-FINAL||719","GT-M-03-10|GT-M-03-10-2019-FINAL||379","GT-M-03-10|GT-M-03-10-2015-FINAL||41"],"all_keys":["GT-M-03-10|GT-M-03-10-2023-FINAL||719","GT-M-03-10|GT-M-03-10-2019-FINAL||379","GT-M-03-10|GT-M-03-10-2015-FINAL||41"],"shares":[[0.3736987465476949,0.28808158062460165],[0.38537735849056604,0.22641509433962262],[0.43450479233226835,0.28065863848611455]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":42.77820290812283,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.8893137879753557,37.36987465476949,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,59.74081155725515],[22.641509433962263,0,1.4150943396226414,0,0,0,0,5.754716981132075,0,0,15.117924528301886,55.070754716981135],[10.86261980830671,0,0,5.234701400835586,0,43.45047923322684,28.065863848611453,0,0,0,0,12.386335709019416]],"volatility_latest":42.03993149504351,"volatility_previous":76.75104448267388,"volatility_mean":59.39548798885869,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ENIO OSWALDO JUAREZ ROQUEL","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-03-11","country":"Guatemala","region":"Chimaltenango","name":"Acatenango","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.6211834070330582,1.5618125824901021,1.7501823106573582],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-03-11|GT-M-03-11-2023-FINAL||720","GT-M-03-11|GT-M-03-11-2019-FINAL||380","GT-M-03-11|GT-M-03-11-2015-FINAL||42"],"all_keys":["GT-M-03-11|GT-M-03-11-2023-FINAL||720","GT-M-03-11|GT-M-03-11-2019-FINAL||380","GT-M-03-11|GT-M-03-11-2015-FINAL||42"],"shares":[[0.306485575910718,0.30027374184038746],[0.27595688517377914,0.2603387593488781],[0.35639129075945414,0.3388894676528805]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":94.918639749837,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.4320909665192674,30.648557591071803,20.899136660349548,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,46.020214782059384],[27.595688517377916,17.179938407391113,1.9907611086669599,6.830180378354598,1.0008798944126704,0,0,0,0,0,0,45.402551693796745],[22.346077716428795,0,35.63912907594541,0.9896864256693405,0,33.888946765288054,0,0,0,0,0,7.136160016668403]],"volatility_latest":32.994657823625914,"volatility_previous":67.5373147325665,"volatility_mean":50.26598627809621,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"WERNER ABEDAMAR MARROQUIN CABRERA","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-03-12","country":"Guatemala","region":"Chimaltenango","name":"Yepocapa","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.398285393798574,21.231617647058826,33.56395245698066],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-03-12|GT-M-03-12-2023-FINAL||725","GT-M-03-12|GT-M-03-12-2019-FINAL||381","GT-M-03-12|GT-M-03-12-2015-FINAL||43"],"all_keys":["GT-M-03-12|GT-M-03-12-2023-FINAL||725","GT-M-03-12|GT-M-03-12-2019-FINAL||381","GT-M-03-12|GT-M-03-12-2015-FINAL||43"],"shares":[[0.5155035654194375,0.4215207114814518],[0.5823863636363636,0.3700701871657754],[0.6024481106971793,0.26680858612737274]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":23.175741119525718,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[42.15207114814518,51.550356541943756,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2.3475683038218094,3.950004006089255],[58.23863636363637,0,0,37.00701871657754,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,4.754344919786096],[1.5522441014724144,0,5.64129856306546,26.68085861273727,0.8515167642362959,60.24481106971793,0,0,0,0,0,5.029270888770623]],"volatility_latest":53.897924845765566,"volatility_previous":67.01255236600421,"volatility_mean":60.45523860588489,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"BERNABE AJIN VICENTE","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-08-20","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-03-13","country":"Guatemala","region":"Chimaltenango","name":"San Andrés Itzapa","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.873183243089198,12.729726923476274,2.9143297041680434],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-03-13|GT-M-03-13-2023-FINAL||721","GT-M-03-13|GT-M-03-13-2019-FINAL||382","GT-M-03-13|GT-M-03-13-2015-FINAL||44"],"all_keys":["GT-M-03-13|GT-M-03-13-2023-FINAL||721","GT-M-03-13|GT-M-03-13-2019-FINAL||382","GT-M-03-13|GT-M-03-13-2015-FINAL||44"],"shares":[[0.28175168614040086,0.23301985370950887],[0.3134669297061572,0.18616966047139447],[0.2455735180908391,0.21643022104915868]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":64.82869503343397,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[3.6192647477913935,23.301985370950888,9.005414648047877,0,0,0,0,0,0,28.175168614040086,0,35.89816661916975],[0,6.832104662028865,3.0734087841345654,2.772297788391652,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,87.3221887654449],[24.55735180908391,0,4.717914879577697,2.8043549983503793,1.8585725283184868,14.593643462003739,12.21818981634224,0,0,0,0,39.249972506323545]],"volatility_latest":54.19631993466681,"volatility_previous":54.90432092115023,"volatility_mean":54.55032042790852,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JOSE DENIS AZURDIA PICHOL","party":"UNIONISTA","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-03-14","country":"Guatemala","region":"Chimaltenango","name":"Parramos","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.105454545454545,22.993756662098367,5.486158001350439],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-03-14|GT-M-03-14-2023-FINAL||722","GT-M-03-14|GT-M-03-14-2019-FINAL||383","GT-M-03-14|GT-M-03-14-2015-FINAL||45"],"all_keys":["GT-M-03-14|GT-M-03-14-2023-FINAL||722","GT-M-03-14|GT-M-03-14-2019-FINAL||383","GT-M-03-14|GT-M-03-14-2015-FINAL||45"],"shares":[[0.37978181818181816,0.2487272727272727],[0.3992690726359068,0.1693315060149231],[0.31279540850776505,0.2579338284942606]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":23.449922369813592,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[14.72,24.87272727272727,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.4254545454545455,58.98181818181817],[10.324349017816354,16.93315060149231,1.2943505405816964,3.4719049794426677,1.9948225978376732,0,0,3.1825795644891124,0,0,3.0150753768844223,59.78376732145576],[20.779878460499663,0,4.051316677920324,0,25.793382849426063,12.60972316002701,0.6414584740040513,0,0,0,0,36.12424037812289]],"volatility_latest":12.335227653418613,"volatility_previous":50.262237465641384,"volatility_mean":31.29873255953,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"AMILCAR SUY CUBUL","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-03-15","country":"Guatemala","region":"Chimaltenango","name":"Zaragoza","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.22732439190725273,4.1099582266540935,0.6916996047430821],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-03-15|GT-M-03-15-2023-FINAL||723","GT-M-03-15|GT-M-03-15-2019-FINAL||384","GT-M-03-15|GT-M-03-15-2015-FINAL||46"],"all_keys":["GT-M-03-15|GT-M-03-15-2023-FINAL||723","GT-M-03-15|GT-M-03-15-2019-FINAL||384","GT-M-03-15|GT-M-03-15-2015-FINAL||46"],"shares":[[0.20936576494657877,0.20709252102750625],[0.32044198895027626,0.27934240668373533],[0.17230731225296442,0.1653903162055336]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":92.80723968192555,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[20.936576494657878,20.709252102750625,0,0,3.1711752671061606,0,0,0,0,5.285292111843601,0,49.89770402364174],[5.969545883304137,0,3.2879665813232717,0,6.831963347257782,0,0,0,0,0,0,83.9105241881148],[17.23073122529644,0,11.005434782608695,2.8285573122529644,3.7178853754940713,16.440217391304348,9.535573122529645,0,0,0,0,39.241600790513836]],"volatility_latest":40.96157482594796,"volatility_previous":47.78300136936468,"volatility_mean":44.37228809765632,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JULIO ROBERTO GIRON PORRAS","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-03-16","country":"Guatemala","region":"Chimaltenango","name":"El Tejar","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[23.245204769310526,31.853496115427298,18.38178401680115],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-03-16|GT-M-03-16-2023-FINAL||724","GT-M-03-16|GT-M-03-16-2019-FINAL||385","GT-M-03-16|GT-M-03-16-2015-FINAL||47"],"all_keys":["GT-M-03-16|GT-M-03-16-2023-FINAL||724","GT-M-03-16|GT-M-03-16-2019-FINAL||385","GT-M-03-16|GT-M-03-16-2015-FINAL||47"],"shares":[[0.4857439087610161,0.25329186106791085],[0.4298927118017018,0.11135775064742878],[0.3199955786448546,0.13617773847684314]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[5.463970969414205,48.57439087610161,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,5.930533955417315,0,40.031104199066874],[3.822912812923912,2.9350104821802936,2.6267110617832037,6.511283758786534,6.67159945739302,0,0,0,0,0,0,77.43248242693305],[12.092406322537858,0,2.022769978998563,10.003316016359014,0,31.999557864485464,10.765999778932242,0,0,0,0,33.11595003868686]],"volatility_latest":53.21097250582893,"volatility_previous":54.527083410604135,"volatility_mean":53.869027958216535,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JULIO AXEL FIGUEROA MUÑOZ","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-04-01","country":"Guatemala","region":"El Progreso","name":"Guastatoya","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.375375175081707,18.75783727963414,12.941007401020336],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-04-01|GT-M-04-01-2023-FINAL||726","GT-M-04-01|GT-M-04-01-2019-FINAL||386","GT-M-04-01|GT-M-04-01-2015-FINAL||48"],"all_keys":["GT-M-04-01|GT-M-04-01-2023-FINAL||726","GT-M-04-01|GT-M-04-01-2019-FINAL||386","GT-M-04-01|GT-M-04-01-2015-FINAL||48"],"shares":[[0.48976188888147804,0.44600813713066095],[0.5180349634874972,0.33045659069115585],[0.5462384134511749,0.4168283394409715]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":52.2666148547935,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.1743480290802375,44.600813713066096,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,53.22483825785366],[51.803496348749725,2.5595633252194436,2.065353691819724,0,0,0,0,4.573283174743675,1.180202109611271,0,0,37.818101349856164],[0,0,3.6933247107853706,0,0,54.623841345117484,41.68283394409715,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":57.44798729584416,"volatility_previous":97.93464630818028,"volatility_mean":77.69131680201221,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JOSÉ ELIAS HERRERA GUERRA","party":"VALOR","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-04-02","country":"Guatemala","region":"El Progreso","name":"Morazán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.844827586206897,8.396052851647433,1.816958277254372],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-04-02|GT-M-04-02-2023-FINAL||727","GT-M-04-02|GT-M-04-02-2019-FINAL||387","GT-M-04-02|GT-M-04-02-2015-FINAL||49"],"all_keys":["GT-M-04-02|GT-M-04-02-2023-FINAL||727","GT-M-04-02|GT-M-04-02-2019-FINAL||387","GT-M-04-02|GT-M-04-02-2015-FINAL||49"],"shares":[[0.553448275862069,0.415],[0.49623682890115406,0.4122763003846797],[0.5090847913862718,0.4909152086137281]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":44.96295882528097,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.8620689655172413,55.3448275862069,1.293103448275862,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,41.5],[49.623682890115404,5.469141996989463,41.22763003846797,0,0,0,0,3.679545074427162,0,0,0,0],[0,0,0,0,0,49.091520861372814,50.908479138627186,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":91.37568558921744,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":95.68784279460871,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MARCO TULIO ARRIAZA CORDOVA","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-04-03","country":"Guatemala","region":"El Progreso","name":"San Agustín Acasaguastlán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.034513330378065,2.1249238681735143,2.4238178633975487],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-04-03|GT-M-04-03-2023-FINAL||728","GT-M-04-03|GT-M-04-03-2019-FINAL||388","GT-M-04-03|GT-M-04-03-2015-FINAL||50"],"all_keys":["GT-M-04-03|GT-M-04-03-2023-FINAL||728","GT-M-04-03|GT-M-04-03-2019-FINAL||388","GT-M-04-03|GT-M-04-03-2015-FINAL||50"],"shares":[[0.3177126211132924,0.26736748780951175],[0.22636529742166883,0.2051160587399337],[0.23033274956217162,0.20609457092819614]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":80.49716527490676,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.431764929390159,31.77126211132924,1.735165600658603,0,0,0,0,0,0.297637895003483,0,0,63.764169463618515],[11.084793936522974,2.145225688570075,0,0,0.5143127833795764,0,0,16.099343574473846,0,0,0.44664004872436897,69.70968396832916],[23.033274956217163,0,3.3765323992994745,13.786339754816112,2.851138353765324,10.542907180385289,20.609457092819614,0,0,0,0,25.800350262697023]],"volatility_latest":31.65883991842125,"volatility_previous":62.600543017400426,"volatility_mean":47.12969146791084,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"BYRON MANOLO AGUILAR ALDANA","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-04-04","country":"Guatemala","region":"El Progreso","name":"San Cristóbal Acasaguastlán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.31746848469257,13.354873451803982,2.1187549045252396],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-04-04|GT-M-04-04-2023-FINAL||729","GT-M-04-04|GT-M-04-04-2019-FINAL||389","GT-M-04-04|GT-M-04-04-2015-FINAL||51"],"all_keys":["GT-M-04-04|GT-M-04-04-2023-FINAL||729","GT-M-04-04|GT-M-04-04-2019-FINAL||389","GT-M-04-04|GT-M-04-04-2015-FINAL||51"],"shares":[[0.5214818626189863,0.3383071777720607],[0.4523424878836833,0.31879375336564353],[0.49986921266021445,0.47868166361496206]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":23.955906915953694,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.0581425263699513,52.14818626189864,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,45.79367121173141],[31.87937533656435,8.10446957458266,0,0,0,0,0,45.23424878836833,0,0,0,14.781906300484653],[0,0,2.144912372482344,0,0,49.98692126602145,47.86816636149621,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":75.05548159856274,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":87.52774079928136,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"EDGAR HUMBERTO CASTAÑEDA RUANO","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-04-05","country":"Guatemala","region":"El Progreso","name":"El Jícaro","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[46.58708809683927,11.753978779840846,1.8645418326693175],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-04-05|GT-M-04-05-2023-FINAL||730","GT-M-04-05|GT-M-04-05-2019-FINAL||390","GT-M-04-05|GT-M-04-05-2015-FINAL||52"],"all_keys":["GT-M-04-05|GT-M-04-05-2023-FINAL||730","GT-M-04-05|GT-M-04-05-2019-FINAL||390","GT-M-04-05|GT-M-04-05-2015-FINAL||52"],"shares":[[0.6654337592468056,0.1995628782784129],[0.3927387267904509,0.27519893899204245],[0.5093227091633465,0.4906772908366534]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[10.574983187626092,66.54337592468056,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,22.88164088769334],[18.94893899204244,27.519893899204245,0,0,0,0,0,12.46684350132626,0,0,0,41.064323607427056],[49.06772908366534,0,0,0,0,50.93227091633466,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":39.02348202547632,"volatility_previous":81.05106100795756,"volatility_mean":60.03727151671694,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JOSÉ FRANCISCO MEJÍA FLORES","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-04-06","country":"Guatemala","region":"El Progreso","name":"Sansare","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.0201020102010219,16.465187452180565,20.54045847882192],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-04-06|GT-M-04-06-2023-FINAL||731","GT-M-04-06|GT-M-04-06-2019-FINAL||391","GT-M-04-06|GT-M-04-06-2015-FINAL||53"],"all_keys":["GT-M-04-06|GT-M-04-06-2023-FINAL||731","GT-M-04-06|GT-M-04-06-2019-FINAL||391","GT-M-04-06|GT-M-04-06-2015-FINAL||53"],"shares":[[0.25862586258625864,0.24842484248424843],[0.5303749043611323,0.36572302983932675],[0.4703203279186276,0.2649157431304084]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":61.97168355171513,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[17.926792679267926,25.862586258625864,0.8550855085508551,0,0,0,0,1.5901590159015901,0,0,0,53.76537653765376],[53.03749043611324,3.0298393267023718,36.57230298393267,0,0,0,0,0,2.739097169089518,0,1.5149196633511859,3.106350420811018],[6.77091240321846,0,0,2.3531197813875817,0,26.49157431304084,47.03203279186276,0,0,0,0,17.35236071049036]],"volatility_latest":75.08193206466782,"volatility_previous":90.12273717597053,"volatility_mean":82.60233462031917,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"SEBASTIAN MORALES CARRERA","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-04-07","country":"Guatemala","region":"El Progreso","name":"Sanarate","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.596062905531731,13.19057045168256,9.294566253574828],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-04-07|GT-M-04-07-2023-FINAL||732","GT-M-04-07|GT-M-04-07-2019-FINAL||392","GT-M-04-07|GT-M-04-07-2015-FINAL||54"],"all_keys":["GT-M-04-07|GT-M-04-07-2023-FINAL||732","GT-M-04-07|GT-M-04-07-2019-FINAL||392","GT-M-04-07|GT-M-04-07-2015-FINAL||54"],"shares":[[0.40591663917299026,0.2999560101176729],[0.5267830364105333,0.39487733189370766],[0.3688036224976167,0.27585795996186846]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":43.77867247909355,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[22.913229957109866,40.59166391729902,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,36.49510612559111],[52.678303641053326,3.964969108031912,3.8689940615439986,0,0,0,0,0,39.487733189370765,0,0,0],[27.585795996186846,0,0,24.94637750238322,0,4.599618684461392,36.880362249761674,0,0,0,0,5.987845567206864]],"volatility_latest":73.12180093485823,"volatility_previous":72.41420400381315,"volatility_mean":72.7680024693357,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"CESAR AUGUSTO RODAS ALVAREZ","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-04-08","country":"Guatemala","region":"El Progreso","name":"San Antonio La Paz","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.071611253196931,9.94452149791956,11.786026746656667],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-04-08|GT-M-04-08-2023-FINAL||733","GT-M-04-08|GT-M-04-08-2019-FINAL||393","GT-M-04-08|GT-M-04-08-2015-FINAL||55"],"all_keys":["GT-M-04-08|GT-M-04-08-2023-FINAL||733","GT-M-04-08|GT-M-04-08-2019-FINAL||393","GT-M-04-08|GT-M-04-08-2015-FINAL||55"],"shares":[[0.3239130434782609,0.25319693094629153],[0.331622746185853,0.2321775312066574],[0.4494438195225597,0.331583552055993]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":57.97537062020154,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[5.856777493606138,32.391304347826086,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,61.75191815856777],[23.21775312066574,33.1622746185853,0,0,0,0,0,4.06380027739251,0,0,0,39.55617198335645],[44.944381952255966,0,0,4.4619422572178475,0,17.435320584926885,33.1583552055993,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":22.195746175211323,"volatility_previous":76.78224687933425,"volatility_mean":49.48899652727279,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"NUBERE AGUSTIN LÓPEZ LÓPEZ","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-05-01","country":"Guatemala","region":"Escuintla","name":"Escuintla","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.359052247873631,3.983732322765505,5.344917237195599],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-05-01|GT-M-05-01-2023-FINAL||734","GT-M-05-01|GT-M-05-01-2019-FINAL||394","GT-M-05-01|GT-M-05-01-2015-FINAL||56"],"all_keys":["GT-M-05-01|GT-M-05-01-2023-FINAL||734","GT-M-05-01|GT-M-05-01-2019-FINAL||394","GT-M-05-01|GT-M-05-01-2015-FINAL||56"],"shares":[[0.24388127061274084,0.20029074813400452],[0.22349570200573066,0.18365837877807561],[0.23485570673368578,0.1814065343617298]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":78.27478615363306,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[20.029074813400452,13.923363999305677,1.442891859052248,0,3.456431175143204,0,0,0,0,0,3.564919284846381,57.58331886825205],[18.36583787780756,5.8438857565394215,5.370182087069045,2.992420741288474,2.6088363064978277,0,0,8.926425732507626,5.520380811535262,0.8665311026897126,2.5418245678898232,46.96367501617525],[18.14065343617298,0,7.275327151399601,0,6.036051650922957,23.485570673368578,16.030418580466247,0,0,0,0,29.031978507669642]],"volatility_latest":22.233048616037877,"volatility_previous":44.84834966259051,"volatility_mean":33.54069913931419,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"EDGAR ABRAHAM RIVERA ESTEVEZ","party":"VICTORIA","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-05-02","country":"Guatemala","region":"Escuintla","name":"Santa Lucía Cotzumalguapa","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.019881783987103,5.546802846743084,17.616945699584715],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-05-02|GT-M-05-02-2023-FINAL||735","GT-M-05-02|GT-M-05-02-2019-FINAL||395","GT-M-05-02|GT-M-05-02-2015-FINAL||57"],"all_keys":["GT-M-05-02|GT-M-05-02-2023-FINAL||735","GT-M-05-02|GT-M-05-02-2019-FINAL||395","GT-M-05-02|GT-M-05-02-2015-FINAL||57"],"shares":[[0.26139172487909723,0.18119290703922622],[0.32023143369370344,0.2647634052262726],[0.39799409721315326,0.22182464021730613]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":58.81167752813171,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[18.119290703922623,26.139172487909725,1.5609887157442235,0,2.4476088124664157,0,0,0,0,0,3.017195056421279,48.71574422353572],[26.47634052262726,1.917748682566415,0.863801814527082,4.995382191557559,0.4617808442440376,0,0,7.472700603031456,2.1296245993372085,0,13.660563915901559,42.02205682620742],[22.182464021730613,0,12.680544310079139,4.523728680753258,0,39.79940972131533,7.3523650325175645,0,0,0,0,13.461488233604095]],"volatility_latest":33.598126072111135,"volatility_previous":58.96851724938495,"volatility_mean":46.283321660748044,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JULIO ARMANDO PAZ ESPINOZA","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-05-03","country":"Guatemala","region":"Escuintla","name":"La Democracia","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.688507540301611,11.524134719851002,6.3784042044911615],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-05-03|GT-M-05-03-2023-FINAL||736","GT-M-05-03|GT-M-05-03-2019-FINAL||396","GT-M-05-03|GT-M-05-03-2015-FINAL||58"],"all_keys":["GT-M-05-03|GT-M-05-03-2023-FINAL||736","GT-M-05-03|GT-M-05-03-2019-FINAL||396","GT-M-05-03|GT-M-05-03-2015-FINAL||58"],"shares":[[0.4020627491766337,0.2751776737736176],[0.3297376998292721,0.21449635263076205],[0.3772893772893773,0.31350533524446567]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":41.459073197073096,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[40.20627491766337,27.51776737736176,2.5221008840353614,0,7.930317212688507,0,0,0,0,0,0,21.823539608250996],[19.975166847741736,1.1097314915412075,0,1.396864814527394,0,0,0,0.426819804438926,1.03212789073413,1.0864504112990843,0.8303585286357287,74.14248021108179],[24.271380793119924,0,3.8302277432712217,0,0,31.35053352444657,37.72893772893773,0,0,0,0,2.818920210224558]],"volatility_latest":57.09156205246606,"volatility_previous":77.2059129420337,"volatility_mean":67.14873749724988,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JUAN RAMIRO SOTO GARCÍA","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-05-04","country":"Guatemala","region":"Escuintla","name":"Siquinalá","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[25.896746686439897,9.038901601830663,2.7285730003300728],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-05-04|GT-M-05-04-2023-FINAL||737","GT-M-05-04|GT-M-05-04-2019-FINAL||397","GT-M-05-04|GT-M-05-04-2015-FINAL||59"],"all_keys":["GT-M-05-04|GT-M-05-04-2023-FINAL||737","GT-M-05-04|GT-M-05-04-2019-FINAL||397","GT-M-05-04|GT-M-05-04-2015-FINAL||59"],"shares":[[0.41329131522847345,0.15432384836407453],[0.34314541293946327,0.25275639692115665],[0.28573000330069315,0.25844427329739245]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":7.387121037769284,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.968022986375011,4.4211697098897025,0.889795161738808,0,0,0,0,11.28000741495968,1.6590972286588193,0,0,76.78190749837799],[25.275639692115664,2.7563969211566466,0,23.705013521947162,0,0,0,34.31454129394633,3.2764718119409193,0,0,10.671936758893281],[28.573000330069316,0,6.8324348113103754,0,0,19.331059522499725,19.41907800638134,0,0,0,0,25.844427329739244]],"volatility_latest":68.66453868995657,"volatility_previous":64.05242354899106,"volatility_mean":66.35848111947382,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"DANIEL GONZALEZ JIMENEZ","party":"VALOR","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-05-05","country":"Guatemala","region":"Escuintla","name":"Masagua","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.498949310645276,5.713443396226417,10.663947699874043],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-05-05|GT-M-05-05-2023-FINAL||738","GT-M-05-05|GT-M-05-05-2019-FINAL||398","GT-M-05-05|GT-M-05-05-2015-FINAL||60"],"all_keys":["GT-M-05-05|GT-M-05-05-2023-FINAL||738","GT-M-05-05|GT-M-05-05-2019-FINAL||398","GT-M-05-05|GT-M-05-05-2015-FINAL||60"],"shares":[[0.4067961662651837,0.25180667315873095],[0.3462853773584906,0.28915094339622643],[0.39471001019612545,0.288070533197385]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":39.60101312378753,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[10.307006304136129,40.679616626518374,0.6150376710573523,0,1.752857362513454,0,0,0,0.8200502280764697,0,0,45.82543180769822],[34.62853773584906,4.811320754716981,2.98938679245283,0,1.7452830188679245,0,0,1.338443396226415,6.73938679245283,0,0,47.74764150943396],[20.55418940802495,0,0,28.8070533197385,0,39.471001019612544,5.182030828285251,0,0,0,0,5.985725424338751]],"volatility_latest":35.87587021544692,"volatility_previous":73.4600851676363,"volatility_mean":54.66797769154161,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"NELSON LUCIANO MARROQUIN MARROQUIN","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-05-06","country":"Guatemala","region":"Escuintla","name":"Tiquisate","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.803221288515406,11.80470077955571,7.9301965981886475],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-05-06|GT-M-05-06-2023-FINAL||739","GT-M-05-06|GT-M-05-06-2019-FINAL||399","GT-M-05-06|GT-M-05-06-2015-FINAL||61"],"all_keys":["GT-M-05-06|GT-M-05-06-2023-FINAL||739","GT-M-05-06|GT-M-05-06-2019-FINAL||399","GT-M-05-06|GT-M-05-06-2015-FINAL||61"],"shares":[[0.261671335200747,0.2436391223155929],[0.2475822050290135,0.12953519723345644],[0.3476916280097195,0.268389662027833]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":72.9181866660259,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[13.509570494864613,1.4063958916900094,0.2392623716153128,0,1.8440709617180207,0,0,0,0,0,0,83.00070028011206],[12.291190434323896,4.6421663442940035,2.0514623996248753,24.758220502901352,4.829728620831135,0,0,0,3.991559697555829,0,4.759392767129711,42.676279233339194],[34.76916280097195,0,3.8380826154185996,26.8389662027833,1.2922465208747516,15.816213828142258,4.937044400265076,0,0,0,0,12.508283631544069]],"volatility_latest":41.54280110731357,"volatility_previous":47.098596510731056,"volatility_mean":44.32069880902232,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"HECTOR HIPOLITO CIFUENTES RUANO","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-05-07","country":"Guatemala","region":"Escuintla","name":"La Gomera","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.29438682123246,6.055375267555064,1.507878534905565],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-05-07|GT-M-05-07-2023-FINAL||740","GT-M-05-07|GT-M-05-07-2019-FINAL||400","GT-M-05-07|GT-M-05-07-2015-FINAL||62"],"all_keys":["GT-M-05-07|GT-M-05-07-2023-FINAL||740","GT-M-05-07|GT-M-05-07-2019-FINAL||400","GT-M-05-07|GT-M-05-07-2015-FINAL||62"],"shares":[[0.40649786455155584,0.20355399633923124],[0.2763239660291376,0.21577021335358698],[0.3299071272044245,0.3148283418553689]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":29.279837367517235,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[8.907870652837095,40.649786455155585,0,0,13.186394142769982,0,0,0,0,0,0,37.25594874923734],[27.63239660291376,2.292342746668508,7.892011323620797,13.167161499689291,5.613477870606919,0,0,0,10.688393288683283,0,1.9333011116481391,30.7809155561693],[24.53302723572994,0,0,1.9774600855681936,6.913283940310968,32.99071272044245,31.482834185536888,0,0,0,0,2.102681832411562]],"volatility_latest":52.40539317371818,"volatility_previous":65.7733529756834,"volatility_mean":59.08937307470079,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"HECTOR HUGO CARDONA MORALES","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-05-08","country":"Guatemala","region":"Escuintla","name":"Guanagazapa","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.671138035482471,10.266561097915016,15.86311530681052],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-05-08|GT-M-05-08-2023-FINAL||741","GT-M-05-08|GT-M-05-08-2019-FINAL||401","GT-M-05-08|GT-M-05-08-2015-FINAL||63"],"all_keys":["GT-M-05-08|GT-M-05-08-2023-FINAL||741","GT-M-05-08|GT-M-05-08-2019-FINAL||401","GT-M-05-08|GT-M-05-08-2015-FINAL||63"],"shares":[[0.35060579835569017,0.25389441800086543],[0.40221694378463974,0.29955133280548957],[0.45971004720161834,0.3010788941335132]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":47.6551865932748,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[25.389441800086544,35.060579835569015,0,0,11.0774556469061,0,0,0,0,0,0,28.472522717438334],[40.22169437846397,29.955133280548957,0,4.262338347849036,0,0,0,0,1.240432831881763,0.7917656373713381,0,23.528635523884933],[45.97100472016184,0,2.4949426837491573,0,1.2811867835468644,30.107889413351316,14.345920431557653,0,0,0,0,5.799055967633176]],"volatility_latest":21.126789395479562,"volatility_previous":53.979249653902855,"volatility_mean":37.55301952469121,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"WEIMER WUILFREDO REYES CASTILLO","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-05-09","country":"Guatemala","region":"Escuintla","name":"San José","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":2,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.311581525542337,19.18486827291151,4.168667755258859],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-05-09|GT-M-05-09-2023-FINAL||742","GT-M-05-09|GT-M-05-09-2019-FINAL||402","GT-M-05-09|GT-M-05-09-2015-FINAL||64"],"all_keys":["GT-M-05-09|GT-M-05-09-2023-FINAL||742","GT-M-05-09|GT-M-05-09-2019-FINAL||402","GT-M-05-09|GT-M-05-09-2015-FINAL||64"],"shares":[[0.3212473757872638,0.22813156053184044],[0.4207160549425805,0.22886737221346543],[0.30035539333397365,0.25866871578138506]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":41.203619136376304,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[21.557907627711685,22.813156053184045,2.9959762071378586,0,2.7029391182645206,0,0,0,0,0,0.9928271518544437,48.93719384184746],[42.07160549425805,2.418374240036028,0.9592434136455753,0,1.4546273361855437,0,0,0,0.2792163927043459,0,0,52.81693312317045],[8.918451637690904,0,25.866871578138507,12.31870137354721,1.1622322543463643,11.32936317356642,30.035539333397367,0,0,0,0,10.368840649313228]],"volatility_latest":24.672653540573712,"volatility_previous":78.59123204500392,"volatility_mean":51.63194279278882,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MARCOS ODILIA GONZALEZ GARCIA","party":"VALOR","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":2,"Final source with documented extraction/source reconciliation limits":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-05-10","country":"Guatemala","region":"Escuintla","name":"Iztapa","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.09380063102242531,15.583278616765156,12.532664367095222],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-05-10|GT-M-05-10-2023-FINAL||743","GT-M-05-10|GT-M-05-10-2019-FINAL||403","GT-M-05-10|GT-M-05-10-2015-FINAL||65"],"all_keys":["GT-M-05-10|GT-M-05-10-2023-FINAL||743","GT-M-05-10|GT-M-05-10-2019-FINAL||403","GT-M-05-10|GT-M-05-10-2015-FINAL||65"],"shares":[[0.4799181376311077,0.47898013132088346],[0.4991245349091705,0.34329174874151897],[0.5457301139333124,0.4204034702623602]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":70.07734799823739,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[47.898013132088344,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.10198686791166],[34.329174874151896,0.42678923177938277,0.2188662727073758,0.4377325454147516,0,0,0,0,0.3064127817903261,12.464434230685052,0.07660319544758153,51.739986868023635],[3.3866415804327374,0,0,0,0,54.57301139333124,42.04034702623602,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":13.930838257824472,"volatility_previous":96.61335841956726,"volatility_mean":55.27209833869587,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JONATAN JOSUE ZARCEÑO CORTEZ","party":"VALOR","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-05-11","country":"Guatemala","region":"Escuintla","name":"Palín","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.2453834368196155,2.111072179397336,9.158274748242448],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-05-11|GT-M-05-11-2023-FINAL||744","GT-M-05-11|GT-M-05-11-2019-FINAL||404","GT-M-05-11|GT-M-05-11-2015-FINAL||66"],"all_keys":["GT-M-05-11|GT-M-05-11-2023-FINAL||744","GT-M-05-11|GT-M-05-11-2019-FINAL||404","GT-M-05-11|GT-M-05-11-2015-FINAL||66"],"shares":[[0.3206193048947666,0.24816547052657043],[0.304572529782761,0.2834618079887877],[0.39112673380201407,0.2995439863195896]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":70.51810404632393,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[32.06193048947666,15.708410612047416,0.21369244415772923,0,0.9596000322554633,0,0,0,0,0,13.696476090637852,37.359890331424886],[28.346180798878766,30.457252978276102,0.4774001401541696,0.36790469516468116,0,0,0,0,0.6263139453398738,0.43798177995795373,0.40294323756131745,38.88402242466713],[29.95439863195896,0,2.3465703971119134,0.9975299258977769,0,39.11267338020141,17.69903097092913,0,0,0,0,9.889796693900816]],"volatility_latest":17.968882575929886,"volatility_previous":60.91871767190157,"volatility_mean":39.44380012391573,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"BYRON RANULFO RUSTRIAN AMADO","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-05-12","country":"Guatemala","region":"Escuintla","name":"San Vicente Pacaya","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.7994518044769308,7.637075718015666,2.3503151260504183],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-05-12|GT-M-05-12-2023-FINAL||745","GT-M-05-12|GT-M-05-12-2019-FINAL||405","GT-M-05-12|GT-M-05-12-2015-FINAL||67"],"all_keys":["GT-M-05-12|GT-M-05-12-2023-FINAL||745","GT-M-05-12|GT-M-05-12-2019-FINAL||405","GT-M-05-12|GT-M-05-12-2015-FINAL||67"],"shares":[[0.30961626313385104,0.30162174508908174],[0.33159268929503916,0.25522193211488253],[0.34059873949579833,0.31709558823529416]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":84.9708734465205,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[17.313841936957516,30.961626313385107,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,51.72453174965739],[33.15926892950392,25.52219321148825,0,0,0,0,0,0,2.5718015665796345,1.3446475195822454,0.28720626631853785,37.114882506527415],[8.705357142857142,0,0,0,0,31.709558823529413,34.05987394957983,0,0,0,0,25.525210084033613]],"volatility_latest":20.049082345026825,"volatility_previous":65.76943277310924,"volatility_mean":42.90925755906804,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"AXEL CATALINO GONZALEZ","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-05-13","country":"Guatemala","region":"Escuintla","name":"Nueva Concepción","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.401826484018265,19.950073870293952,14.158198297171108],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-05-13|GT-M-05-13-2023-FINAL||746","GT-M-05-13|GT-M-05-13-2019-FINAL||406","GT-M-05-13|GT-M-05-13-2015-FINAL||68"],"all_keys":["GT-M-05-13|GT-M-05-13-2023-FINAL||746","GT-M-05-13|GT-M-05-13-2019-FINAL||406","GT-M-05-13|GT-M-05-13-2015-FINAL||68"],"shares":[[0.24855403348554034,0.16453576864535768],[0.4096489887411483,0.21014825003820878],[0.3151606701455644,0.17357868717385333]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":37.79031059391873,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[24.855403348554034,7.042110603754439,9.680365296803654,0,9.142567224759006,0,0,0,0,0,0,49.27955352612888],[40.96489887411483,4.493351673544246,0,1.1513576850578227,0,0,0,1.7474145397116512,0,0.49926129706047173,0.2903866727800703,50.85332925773091],[17.357868717385333,0,12.281424517074063,0.7003570447679209,2.352833470658244,12.015929689645702,14.538130550215142,0,0,0,0,40.753456010253586]],"volatility_latest":21.37169145177285,"volatility_previous":41.18831822759316,"volatility_mean":31.280004839683002,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ISAIAS CORADO GARCÍA","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-05-14","country":"Guatemala","region":"Escuintla","name":"Sipacate","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":2,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":2,"years":[2023,2019],"gaps":[36.01476014760148,35.786802030456855,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-05-14|GT-M-05-14-2023-FINAL||747","GT-M-05-14|GT-M-05-14-2019-FINAL||407"],"all_keys":["GT-M-05-14|GT-M-05-14-2023-FINAL||747","GT-M-05-14|GT-M-05-14-2019-FINAL||407"],"shares":[[0.6460024600246003,0.28585485854858544],[0.6624365482233503,0.30456852791878175],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.1525215252152523,28.585485854858547,0,0,3.911439114391144,0,0,0,0,0,0,65.35055350553506],[0,2.340665538635082,0,0,0,0,0,0,66.24365482233503,0,0.9588268471517203,30.456852791878173],null],"volatility_latest":67.20248166948674,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"WALTER ORLANDO NAJERA GONZALEZ","party":"VALOR","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":2},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-06-01","country":"Guatemala","region":"Santa Rosa","name":"Cuilapa","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.466111023745874,4.151717068170171,14.707581227436823],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-06-01|GT-M-06-01-2023-FINAL||748","GT-M-06-01|GT-M-06-01-2019-FINAL||408","GT-M-06-01|GT-M-06-01-2015-FINAL||69"],"all_keys":["GT-M-06-01|GT-M-06-01-2023-FINAL||748","GT-M-06-01|GT-M-06-01-2019-FINAL||408","GT-M-06-01|GT-M-06-01-2015-FINAL||69"],"shares":[[0.4188551659065891,0.37419405566913033],[0.36296404774108515,0.32144687705938346],[0.3296028880866426,0.18252707581227437]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":73.02030071278871,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[37.419405566913035,41.88551659065891,0,0,1.2580594433086962,0,0,0,0,0,0,19.437018399119356],[32.144687705938345,4.759464011129824,2.5774328183349198,6.275170242366552,0,0,0,1.4498059603133924,4.642307973932782,3.807571208903859,2.1088086695467525,42.234751409533565],[11.537906137184116,0,18.252707581227437,10.12274368231047,0,14.700361010830324,32.96028880866426,0,0,0,0,12.425992779783394]],"volatility_latest":43.65882988381247,"volatility_previous":67.18349802233101,"volatility_mean":55.42116395307174,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MARYFLOR MORALES CONTRERAS","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-06-02","country":"Guatemala","region":"Santa Rosa","name":"Barberena","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.3368487660831,2.2551053838593447,1.0477595239306225],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-06-02|GT-M-06-02-2023-FINAL||749","GT-M-06-02|GT-M-06-02-2019-FINAL||409","GT-M-06-02|GT-M-06-02-2015-FINAL||70"],"all_keys":["GT-M-06-02|GT-M-06-02-2023-FINAL||749","GT-M-06-02|GT-M-06-02-2019-FINAL||409","GT-M-06-02|GT-M-06-02-2015-FINAL||70"],"shares":[[0.43593123813541446,0.35256275047458346],[0.2546685595719122,0.23211750573331877],[0.32424596917755966,0.3137683739382534]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":71.08291586399636,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[11.115798354777473,43.593123813541446,0.7435140265766715,0,1.7665049567601772,0,0,0,0,0,0,42.78105884834424],[13.366823195369662,0.9064103964180409,3.2980233700993775,12.449492191765863,0,0,0,2.31516872338102,0,25.46685595719122,1.2067270940264279,40.99049907174839],[11.30664767814455,0,3.707848024006917,31.37683739382534,0,15.512944407710696,32.42459691775596,0,0,0,0,5.671125578556532]],"volatility_latest":46.24377815047943,"volatility_previous":67.27471118143367,"volatility_mean":56.75924466595655,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JONATHAN JOSE ANTONIO RUEDA VALLEJO","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-06-03","country":"Guatemala","region":"Santa Rosa","name":"Santa Rosa De Lima","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.947780678851178,3.287746926371046,10.689115113547373],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-06-03|GT-M-06-03-2023-FINAL||750","GT-M-06-03|GT-M-06-03-2019-FINAL||410","GT-M-06-03|GT-M-06-03-2015-FINAL||71"],"all_keys":["GT-M-06-03|GT-M-06-03-2023-FINAL||750","GT-M-06-03|GT-M-06-03-2019-FINAL||410","GT-M-06-03|GT-M-06-03-2015-FINAL||71"],"shares":[[0.3251958224543081,0.27571801566579635],[0.25804669153197957,0.2251692222682691],[0.46045418950665623,0.35356303837118247]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":74.88048001711621,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,27.571801566579634,0.4046997389033943,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,72.02349869451697],[22.51692222682691,15.444122116314409,0,11.97679237463738,0,0,0,0,10.636828291200443,0,0,39.42533499102086],[0,0,0,0,0,17.39754633255025,35.35630383711825,0,0,0,0,47.246149830331504]],"volatility_latest":45.130542892664735,"volatility_previous":60.57466500897914,"volatility_mean":52.85260395082194,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JUAN JOSE DAVILA AGUILAR","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-06-04","country":"Guatemala","region":"Santa Rosa","name":"Casillas","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.68617021276596,4.114354863106943,14.385964912280702],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-06-04|GT-M-06-04-2023-FINAL||751","GT-M-06-04|GT-M-06-04-2019-FINAL||411","GT-M-06-04|GT-M-06-04-2015-FINAL||72"],"all_keys":["GT-M-06-04|GT-M-06-04-2023-FINAL||751","GT-M-06-04|GT-M-06-04-2019-FINAL||411","GT-M-06-04|GT-M-06-04-2015-FINAL||72"],"shares":[[0.4787234042553192,0.30186170212765956],[0.2518529723188625,0.21070942368779305],[0.4235217673814165,0.2796621182586095]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":33.57697461090135,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[18.735224586288417,47.87234042553192,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,33.39243498817967],[21.070942368779306,9.922855846316745,0,25.18529723188625,0,0,0,2.5260928755105128,6.958100136136742,1.2706095900771441,0,33.06610195129329],[2.599090318388564,0,0,27.96621182586095,0,26.26380766731644,42.35217673814165,0,0,0,0,0.8187134502923976]],"volatility_latest":38.27581761610155,"volatility_previous":71.39689899943278,"volatility_mean":54.83635830776716,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"DAYRI BENJAMIN BOCANEGRA SALAZAR","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-06-05","country":"Guatemala","region":"Santa Rosa","name":"San Rafael Las Flores","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":2,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.741779335670174,5.363020329138429,2.285115303983229],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-06-05|GT-M-06-05-2023-FINAL||752","GT-M-06-05|GT-M-06-05-2019-FINAL||412","GT-M-06-05|GT-M-06-05-2015-FINAL||73"],"all_keys":["GT-M-06-05|GT-M-06-05-2023-FINAL||752","GT-M-06-05|GT-M-06-05-2019-FINAL||412","GT-M-06-05|GT-M-06-05-2015-FINAL||73"],"shares":[[0.5057586379569354,0.33834084460023367],[0.3866408518877057,0.3330106485963214],[0.33542976939203356,0.3125786163522013]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":40.587573847290216,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[33.83408446002337,13.687197462860958,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.47871807711567],[38.66408518877057,26.81510164569216,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,34.52081316553727],[31.257861635220127,0,13.060796645702306,0,1.1530398322851152,33.542976939203356,14.633123689727464,0,0,0,0,6.352201257861636]],"volatility_latest":17.957904911578403,"volatility_previous":62.38993710691824,"volatility_mean":40.17392100924832,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"LUIS FERNANDO MONTERROSO MORALES","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":2,"Final source with documented extraction/source reconciliation limits":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-06-06","country":"Guatemala","region":"Santa Rosa","name":"Oratorio","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.93069306930693,3.695464095909035,8.782994627423498],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-06-06|GT-M-06-06-2023-FINAL||753","GT-M-06-06|GT-M-06-06-2019-FINAL||413","GT-M-06-06|GT-M-06-06-2015-FINAL||74"],"all_keys":["GT-M-06-06|GT-M-06-06-2023-FINAL||753","GT-M-06-06|GT-M-06-06-2019-FINAL||413","GT-M-06-06|GT-M-06-06-2015-FINAL||74"],"shares":[[0.29399189918991897,0.22468496849684969],[0.24273884563094797,0.20578420467185762],[0.4584209296893249,0.37059098341508995]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":69.2732273345039,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[29.399189918991897,22.468496849684968,0,0,4.669216921692169,0,0,0,0,0,0.8100810081008101,42.653015301530154],[6.884192312445927,8.762822889630453,0,19.985168705969595,0,0,0,3.7943393894450623,9.553825237918675,20.57842046718576,1.5078482264244222,28.933382770980103],[6.365335202055594,0,2.452697967764541,8.280775519738379,0,37.05909834150899,45.84209296893249,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":54.609521018842706,"volatility_previous":85.35388927820603,"volatility_mean":69.98170514852437,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"NERY ARMANDO CASTILLO OLIVARES","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-06-07","country":"Guatemala","region":"Santa Rosa","name":"San Juan Tecuaco","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.5990073592332692,9.338221107466719,11.590628853267575],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-06-07|GT-M-06-07-2023-FINAL||754","GT-M-06-07|GT-M-06-07-2019-FINAL||414","GT-M-06-07|GT-M-06-07-2015-FINAL||75"],"all_keys":["GT-M-06-07|GT-M-06-07-2023-FINAL||754","GT-M-06-07|GT-M-06-07-2019-FINAL||414","GT-M-06-07|GT-M-06-07-2015-FINAL||75"],"shares":[[0.47509840835187406,0.46910833475954133],[0.39880378159367164,0.3054215705190044],[0.4399917796958488,0.32408549116317303]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":78.40033183446633,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[47.509840835187404,46.910833475954135,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,5.5793256888584635],[24.59965271078526,1.0611614894848542,0,39.88037815936716,0,0,0,30.542157051900443,3.9166505884622804,0,0,0],[5.055487053020962,0,0,18.53678586107686,0,32.4085491163173,43.99917796958488,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":74.33918579972989,"volatility_previous":76.40772708590218,"volatility_mean":75.37345644281604,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MARVIN MORALES GARCIA","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-06-08","country":"Guatemala","region":"Santa Rosa","name":"Chiquimulilla","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[22.94197031039137,0.19116803670426208,6.415075916613773],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-06-08|GT-M-06-08-2023-FINAL||755","GT-M-06-08|GT-M-06-08-2019-FINAL||415","GT-M-06-08|GT-M-06-08-2015-FINAL||76"],"all_keys":["GT-M-06-08|GT-M-06-08-2023-FINAL||755","GT-M-06-08|GT-M-06-08-2019-FINAL||415","GT-M-06-08|GT-M-06-08-2015-FINAL||76"],"shares":[[0.5681976825352506,0.3387779794313369],[0.21563754540240873,0.21372586503536609],[0.3330078601767319,0.2688571010105942]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":27.679799055462617,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[33.87779794313369,56.81976825352506,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,9.302433803341243],[21.37258650353661,7.727967883769834,2.332250047792009,4.702733702924871,0,0,0,0.47314089084305105,10.2466067673485,0,1.6105907092334162,51.53412349455171],[4.867451056974076,0,2.4703412586046967,33.30078601767319,0,18.80583898842943,26.885710101059416,0,0,0,0,13.66987257725919]],"volatility_latest":61.59701180935231,"volatility_previous":74.42769261504985,"volatility_mean":68.01235221220108,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"RUBEN DARIO ESCOBAR RUIZ","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-06-09","country":"Guatemala","region":"Santa Rosa","name":"Taxisco","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.1434495469206,12.159920371599203,18.350992787819425],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-06-09|GT-M-06-09-2023-FINAL||756","GT-M-06-09|GT-M-06-09-2019-FINAL||416","GT-M-06-09|GT-M-06-09-2015-FINAL||77"],"all_keys":["GT-M-06-09|GT-M-06-09-2023-FINAL||756","GT-M-06-09|GT-M-06-09-2019-FINAL||416","GT-M-06-09|GT-M-06-09-2015-FINAL||77"],"shares":[[0.458838888035632,0.397404392566426],[0.41116456536164564,0.2895653616456536],[0.41296411717567444,0.22945418929748018]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":54.154274407929684,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[39.7404392566426,45.8838888035632,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,14.375671939794193],[41.11645653616456,0,0,28.95653616456536,0,0,0,0,2.5547445255474455,0,0.8460517584605176,26.52621101526211],[15.01202030095272,0,3.0273350547591487,41.296411717567445,0,22.94541892974802,4.086902323924851,0,0,0,0,13.631911673047814]],"volatility_latest":45.8838888035632,"volatility_previous":42.3995318614341,"volatility_mean":44.14171033249865,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"VIDAL MONTEPEQUE BARILLAS","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-06-10","country":"Guatemala","region":"Santa Rosa","name":"Santa María Ixhuatán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.368935598191371,4.713935167247836,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-06-10|GT-M-06-10-2023-FINAL||757","GT-M-06-10|GT-M-06-10-2019-FINAL||417","GT-M-06-10|GT-M-06-10-2015-FINAL||78"],"all_keys":["GT-M-06-10|GT-M-06-10-2023-FINAL||757","GT-M-06-10|GT-M-06-10-2019-FINAL||417","GT-M-06-10|GT-M-06-10-2015-FINAL||78"],"shares":[[0.2929243553708909,0.21923499938897717],[0.31421929484695854,0.2670799431744802],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[20.261517780765,21.923499938897717,0,0,10.961749969448858,0,0,0,0,0,0.2566295979469632,46.59660271294147],[31.421929484695855,0,1.8855740668991348,5.734211545912437,0,0,0,0,26.70799431744802,0,25.984760428774376,8.265530156270179],null],"volatility_latest":71.21632246501787,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"WILSON ANTONIO GONZALEZ CORADO","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":2,"Final source with documented extraction/source reconciliation limits":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-06-11","country":"Guatemala","region":"Santa Rosa","name":"Guazacapán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.3061953442542205,14.408519373877343,21.236344257926994],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-06-11|GT-M-06-11-2023-FINAL||758","GT-M-06-11|GT-M-06-11-2019-FINAL||418","GT-M-06-11|GT-M-06-11-2015-FINAL||79"],"all_keys":["GT-M-06-11|GT-M-06-11-2023-FINAL||758","GT-M-06-11|GT-M-06-11-2019-FINAL||418","GT-M-06-11|GT-M-06-11-2015-FINAL||79"],"shares":[[0.4394629880527159,0.37640103461017366],[0.4267385168078009,0.28265332306902746],[0.5488942179589662,0.3365307753796962]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":48.85046277745783,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[43.94629880527159,37.64010346101737,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,18.41359773371105],[42.67385168078009,0,0,12.32999743392353,0,0,0,0,13.792661021298434,2.2453169104439312,0,28.958172953554016],[7.340794031441513,0,4.116706634692246,0,0,33.65307753796962,54.88942179589662,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":38.91255058550887,"volatility_previous":92.65920596855848,"volatility_mean":65.78587827703367,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"NOEL DE LA CRUZ PABLO","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-06-12","country":"Guatemala","region":"Santa Rosa","name":"Santa Cruz Naranjo","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[19.60034013605442,1.3214593507612733,0.510587175251537],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-06-12|GT-M-06-12-2023-FINAL||759","GT-M-06-12|GT-M-06-12-2019-FINAL||419","GT-M-06-12|GT-M-06-12-2015-FINAL||80"],"all_keys":["GT-M-06-12|GT-M-06-12-2023-FINAL||759","GT-M-06-12|GT-M-06-12-2019-FINAL||419","GT-M-06-12|GT-M-06-12-2015-FINAL||80"],"shares":[[0.5293367346938775,0.33333333333333337],[0.27535191037058315,0.2621373168629704],[0.32872803724282923,0.32362216549031386]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":38.96149697806906,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.9778911564625851,33.333333333333336,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,65.68877551020408],[0,9.508761850043092,0,0,0,0,0,4.6538351048549265,2.2263717322608447,13.142775064636599,0,70.46825624820454],[6.532512389247635,0,1.1563297792461331,0,0,26.220153176152575,32.872803724282925,0,0,0,0,33.21820093107073]],"volatility_latest":24.80246263975283,"volatility_previous":66.78179906892927,"volatility_mean":45.79213085434105,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"IVAN ANTONIO MORALES DEL CID","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-06-13","country":"Guatemala","region":"Santa Rosa","name":"Pueblo Nuevo Viñas","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.9758850692662904,8.825417201540432,6.035113386978786],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-06-13|GT-M-06-13-2023-FINAL||760","GT-M-06-13|GT-M-06-13-2019-FINAL||420","GT-M-06-13|GT-M-06-13-2015-FINAL||81"],"all_keys":["GT-M-06-13|GT-M-06-13-2023-FINAL||760","GT-M-06-13|GT-M-06-13-2019-FINAL||420","GT-M-06-13|GT-M-06-13-2015-FINAL||81"],"shares":[[0.30620831195484866,0.2764494612621857],[0.42041078305519897,0.33215661103979466],[0.2713972201901975,0.21104608632040964]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":74.81666229640109,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[13.217034376603387,30.620831195484865,0,0,0.8209338122113905,0,0,0,2.8219599794766546,0,0,52.5192406362237],[33.215661103979464,0,0,42.041078305519896,0,0,0,2.7599486521181,6.846384253316217,9.103551561831408,0,6.033376123234917],[3.1333821019263595,0,20.275542550597415,17.142160448671056,0,27.13972201901975,21.104608632040964,0,0,0,0,11.204584247744451]],"volatility_latest":77.92762952068504,"volatility_previous":73.69108132616766,"volatility_mean":75.80935542342635,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"CRISTIAMS JOSUE BLANCO FAJARDO","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-06-14","country":"Guatemala","region":"Santa Rosa","name":"Nueva Santa Rosa","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[24.507444728530608,26.9245685476052,30.994435035083477],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-06-14|GT-M-06-14-2023-FINAL||761","GT-M-06-14|GT-M-06-14-2019-FINAL||421","GT-M-06-14|GT-M-06-14-2015-FINAL||82"],"all_keys":["GT-M-06-14|GT-M-06-14-2023-FINAL||761","GT-M-06-14|GT-M-06-14-2019-FINAL||421","GT-M-06-14|GT-M-06-14-2015-FINAL||82"],"shares":[[0.4852609414949617,0.2401864942096556],[0.5493503975179368,0.2801047120418848],[0.5969029760464554,0.2869586256956206]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[15.934727026620545,24.01864942096556,2.331177620694841,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,57.71544593171906],[54.93503975179368,0,0,28.01047120418848,0,0,0,2.0166763622261006,0.31025790188093855,2.8407989140973435,0,11.886755865813457],[2.8147431244455197,0,2.677635293168804,3.1292846197273976,0,59.69029760464554,28.69586256956206,0,0,0,0,2.9921767884506814]],"volatility_latest":72.17851710756601,"volatility_previous":91.06379546737641,"volatility_mean":81.62115628747121,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JOSE ENRRIQUE ARREDONDO AMAYA","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-07-01","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sololá","name":"Sololá","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.7021619071406775,5.471626253649866,7.16331466395112],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-07-01|GT-M-07-01-2023-FINAL||762","GT-M-07-01|GT-M-07-01-2019-FINAL||422","GT-M-07-01|GT-M-07-01-2015-FINAL||83"],"all_keys":["GT-M-07-01|GT-M-07-01-2023-FINAL||762","GT-M-07-01|GT-M-07-01-2019-FINAL||422","GT-M-07-01|GT-M-07-01-2015-FINAL||83"],"shares":[[0.3946104959342825,0.3575888768628757],[0.4492509838771106,0.39453472134061196],[0.4950992871690428,0.4234661405295316]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":77.10441756612761,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,21.274942413898373,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,78.72505758610164],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.7331471372349879,99.26685286276499],[1.680244399185336,0,0,2.8799643584521384,0,3.077265784114053,0,0.5059826883910387,0,0,0,91.85654276985744]],"volatility_latest":21.274942413898355,"volatility_previous":8.143457230142552,"volatility_mean":14.709199822020453,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ANDRES LISANDRO IBOY CHIROY","party":"SUD","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-07-02","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sololá","name":"San José Chacayá","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.930149679258733,25.593354430379744,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-07-02|GT-M-07-02-2023-FINAL||763","GT-M-07-02|GT-M-07-02-2019-FINAL||423","GT-M-07-02|GT-M-07-02-2015-FINAL||84"],"all_keys":["GT-M-07-02|GT-M-07-02-2023-FINAL||763","GT-M-07-02|GT-M-07-02-2019-FINAL||423","GT-M-07-02|GT-M-07-02-2015-FINAL||84"],"shares":[[0.5552387740555952,0.39593727726300787],[0.5356012658227848,0.27966772151898733],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[39.593727726300784,55.52387740555952,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,4.8823948681397],[53.56012658227848,2.3734177215189876,0,0,0,0,0,27.966772151898734,0.19778481012658228,0,0,15.901898734177216],null],"volatility_latest":53.15045968404053,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"LUIS FLORENCIO GARCÍA CHUTA","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":2,"Final source with documented extraction/source reconciliation limits":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-07-03","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sololá","name":"Santa María Visitación","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.2886317222600425,2.7997128499641093,5.577376276512176],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-07-03|GT-M-07-03-2023-FINAL||764","GT-M-07-03|GT-M-07-03-2019-FINAL||424","GT-M-07-03|GT-M-07-03-2015-FINAL||85"],"all_keys":["GT-M-07-03|GT-M-07-03-2023-FINAL||764","GT-M-07-03|GT-M-07-03-2019-FINAL||424","GT-M-07-03|GT-M-07-03-2015-FINAL||85"],"shares":[[0.504424778761062,0.4615384615384615],[0.3553481694185212,0.3273510409188801],[0.39984289080911234,0.34406912804399054]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":80.14584742001762,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,50.442477876106196,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,49.557522123893804],[0,35.53481694185212,0,0,22.32591529073941,0,0,0,0,0,4.594400574300072,37.5448671931084],[3.7706205813040063,0,39.98428908091123,0,0,34.406912804399056,21.838177533385704,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":26.92031586503948,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":63.46015793251974,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MARIO ROBERTO DIONISIO DIONISIO","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-07-04","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sololá","name":"Santa Lucía Utatlán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.330876691233087,7.890311731988103,10.149771011263773],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-07-04|GT-M-07-04-2023-FINAL||765","GT-M-07-04|GT-M-07-04-2019-FINAL||425","GT-M-07-04|GT-M-07-04-2015-FINAL||86"],"all_keys":["GT-M-07-04|GT-M-07-04-2023-FINAL||765","GT-M-07-04|GT-M-07-04-2019-FINAL||425","GT-M-07-04|GT-M-07-04-2015-FINAL||86"],"shares":[[0.3684963150368496,0.24518754812451873],[0.2660716595524512,0.18716854223257015],[0.4609481371456864,0.35945042703304864]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":46.0970168226867,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[24.518754812451874,36.84963150368496,2.144978550214498,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,36.48663513364867],[18.522830164273703,18.54870003880481,2.2506790842064417,0,26.60716595524512,0,0,0,0,0,7.722157547535894,26.348467209934032],[2.1661096670379996,0,0,12.390147295457359,0,46.09481371456864,35.945042703304864,0.5569996286669142,0,0,0,2.846886990964228]],"volatility_latest":34.43502403677296,"volatility_previous":94.98700334199778,"volatility_mean":64.71101368938537,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"STUARDO ALFONSO CACERES OVALLE","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-07-05","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sololá","name":"Nahualá","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.317445071437142,17.459077744150477,5.9369616537995284],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-07-05|GT-M-07-05-2023-FINAL||766","GT-M-07-05|GT-M-07-05-2019-FINAL||426","GT-M-07-05|GT-M-07-05-2015-FINAL||87"],"all_keys":["GT-M-07-05|GT-M-07-05-2023-FINAL||766","GT-M-07-05|GT-M-07-05-2019-FINAL||426","GT-M-07-05|GT-M-07-05-2015-FINAL||87"],"shares":[[0.5351782927122103,0.3920038419978389],[0.4240619610140259,0.24947118357252107],[0.3617048427231545,0.3023352261851592]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":27.8905673425631,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.1851362708608475,53.51782927122103,1.0175291151398727,0,1.4107335814623605,0,0,0,0,0,0.34818105414815703,41.520590707167734],[14.273162159523578,42.406196101402585,0,0,0,0,0,8.490351134107845,0,0,0.569494614208077,34.26079599075791],[6.791935175141964,0,0,0,0,36.17048427231545,30.23352261851592,0,0,0,0,26.80405793402667]],"volatility_latest":20.7996905828305,"volatility_previous":66.40400689083137,"volatility_mean":43.60184873683093,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MANUEL GUARCHAJ TZEP","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-07-06","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sololá","name":"Santa Catarina Ixtahuacán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[30.826118326118326,30.146323729891844,10.661496350364963],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-07-06|GT-M-07-06-2023-FINAL||767","GT-M-07-06|GT-M-07-06-2019-FINAL||427","GT-M-07-06|GT-M-07-06-2015-FINAL||88"],"all_keys":["GT-M-07-06|GT-M-07-06-2023-FINAL||767","GT-M-07-06|GT-M-07-06-2019-FINAL||427","GT-M-07-06|GT-M-07-06-2015-FINAL||88"],"shares":[[0.6405122655122655,0.33225108225108224],[0.5236753612651095,0.22221212396619106],[0.42020985401459854,0.3135948905109489]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.078823953823954,64.05122655122655,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,33.869949494949495],[52.36753612651095,20.753430882486594,0,0,0,0,0,0,22.221212396619105,0,0,4.657820594383351],[19.543795620437955,0,0,0,0,31.35948905109489,42.02098540145985,0,0,0,0,7.075729927007299]],"volatility_latest":72.5099245693061,"volatility_previous":75.79838378517869,"volatility_mean":74.15415417724239,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"PASCUAL TAMBRIZ TZEP","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-07-07","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sololá","name":"Santa Clara La Laguna","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.450952283432315,15.949702183984119,1.771871539313402],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-07-07|GT-M-07-07-2023-FINAL||768","GT-M-07-07|GT-M-07-07-2019-FINAL||428","GT-M-07-07|GT-M-07-07-2015-FINAL||89"],"all_keys":["GT-M-07-07|GT-M-07-07-2023-FINAL||768","GT-M-07-07|GT-M-07-07-2019-FINAL||428","GT-M-07-07|GT-M-07-07-2015-FINAL||89"],"shares":[[0.32520991193938154,0.2607003891050584],[0.41892786234281937,0.25943084050297816],[0.479734219269103,0.46201550387596896]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":55.83665410407017,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[19.168543927913166,32.52099119393815,2.5394224861765307,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,45.771042391972145],[25.943084050297816,23.47231414074564,0,41.892786234281935,0,0,0,0,6.132803882638429,0,0,2.559011692036179],[5.227021040974529,0,0.5980066445182725,0,0,47.9734219269103,46.201550387596896,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":54.80013023930501,"volatility_previous":94.77297895902547,"volatility_mean":74.78655459916524,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"FRANCISCO CHAVAJAY SAQUIC","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-07-08","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sololá","name":"Concepción","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.640186915887853,0.09923916639100128,13.35716607084823],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-07-08|GT-M-07-08-2023-FINAL||769","GT-M-07-08|GT-M-07-08-2019-FINAL||429","GT-M-07-08|GT-M-07-08-2015-FINAL||90"],"all_keys":["GT-M-07-08|GT-M-07-08-2023-FINAL||769","GT-M-07-08|GT-M-07-08-2019-FINAL||429","GT-M-07-08|GT-M-07-08-2015-FINAL||90"],"shares":[[0.38346962616822433,0.2070677570093458],[0.30830301025471385,0.30731061859080383],[0.4280142996425089,0.2944426389340266]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":40.25199746732583,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[38.34696261682243,20.70677570093458,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,40.94626168224299],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,30.731061859080384,8.534568309626199,0,0,60.734369831293414],[29.444263893402663,0,0,0.4224894377640559,0,42.80142996425089,27.331816704582387,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":59.05373831775701,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":79.5268691588785,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"FILIBERTO SEQUEC JURACAN","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-07-09","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sololá","name":"San Andrés Semetabaj","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.849887328826483,6.235059760956176,0.862431636516618],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-07-09|GT-M-07-09-2023-FINAL||770","GT-M-07-09|GT-M-07-09-2019-FINAL||430","GT-M-07-09|GT-M-07-09-2015-FINAL||91"],"all_keys":["GT-M-07-09|GT-M-07-09-2023-FINAL||770","GT-M-07-09|GT-M-07-09-2019-FINAL||430","GT-M-07-09|GT-M-07-09-2015-FINAL||91"],"shares":[[0.37944184434044026,0.24094297105217544],[0.3637450199203187,0.30139442231075697],[0.289019772822886,0.2803954564577198]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":48.66653255382798,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[11.527127751776737,37.944184434044026,23.868954758190327,0,2.565435950771364,0,0,0,0,0,0,24.094297105217542],[0,30.139442231075698,4.103585657370518,0,0,0,0,0,2.7888446215139444,0,0,62.96812749003984],[28.03954564577198,0,2.503155237694573,1.051745898190997,0,26.272612536811106,6.604964240639461,0,0,0,0,35.52797644089188]],"volatility_latest":41.662675006336244,"volatility_previous":61.968868321413545,"volatility_mean":51.8157716638749,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"BAIRON RICARDO TOBÍAS SANCHEZ","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-07-10","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sololá","name":"Panajachel","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.43013942450311404,4.92674287554339,9.323497096217238],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-07-10|GT-M-07-10-2023-FINAL||771","GT-M-07-10|GT-M-07-10-2019-FINAL||431","GT-M-07-10|GT-M-07-10-2015-FINAL||92"],"all_keys":["GT-M-07-10|GT-M-07-10-2023-FINAL||771","GT-M-07-10|GT-M-07-10-2019-FINAL||431","GT-M-07-10|GT-M-07-10-2015-FINAL||92"],"shares":[[0.19638089587659446,0.19207950163156334],[0.2869103203992916,0.23764289164385768],[0.38235755768325225,0.2891225867210799]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":86.65771886506694,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[3.9305843963215663,19.207950163156333,0.9789380005932957,0,4.7018688816374965,0,0,0,0,0,0,71.18065855829131],[14.9895346965062,0,2.1252616325873452,23.76428916438577,13.186282402189663,0,0,0,1.5939462244405087,0,2.6565770407341813,41.68410883915634],[38.23575576832523,0,3.296185842097002,24.73708993878512,0,4.818709778684665,0,0,0,0,0,28.91225867210799]],"volatility_latest":48.70449988229131,"volatility_previous":30.208655834412703,"volatility_mean":39.456577858352006,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"SAMUEL ZACARIAS SAHON ROSALES","party":"MLP","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-07-11","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sololá","name":"Santa Catarina Palopó","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.903545558520776,3.0909882455376554,11.334056399132319],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-07-11|GT-M-07-11-2023-FINAL||772","GT-M-07-11|GT-M-07-11-2019-FINAL||432","GT-M-07-11|GT-M-07-11-2015-FINAL||93"],"all_keys":["GT-M-07-11|GT-M-07-11-2023-FINAL||772","GT-M-07-11|GT-M-07-11-2019-FINAL||432","GT-M-07-11|GT-M-07-11-2015-FINAL||93"],"shares":[[0.4933282500953107,0.38429279451010295],[0.3125816282107096,0.28167174575533305],[0.3405639913232104,0.22722342733188722]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":56.98585275656504,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[38.429279451010295,0.9531071292413267,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,60.61761341974838],[0,31.25816282107096,0,28.123639529821506,1.872006965607314,0,0,0,1.872006965607314,0,0,36.874183717892905],[34.05639913232104,0,22.50542299349241,11.062906724511931,0,8.785249457700651,22.72234273318872,0,0,0,0,0.8676789587852495]],"volatility_latest":62.17270915286577,"volatility_previous":88.06941431670282,"volatility_mean":75.12106173478429,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ANTONIO TAX LÓPEZ","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-07-12","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sololá","name":"San Antonio Palopó","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.022530329289427,14.870317002881844,7.275426874536006],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-07-12|GT-M-07-12-2023-FINAL||773","GT-M-07-12|GT-M-07-12-2019-FINAL||433","GT-M-07-12|GT-M-07-12-2015-FINAL||94"],"all_keys":["GT-M-07-12|GT-M-07-12-2023-FINAL||773","GT-M-07-12|GT-M-07-12-2019-FINAL||433","GT-M-07-12|GT-M-07-12-2015-FINAL||94"],"shares":[[0.38197573656845757,0.27175043327556325],[0.3575408261287224,0.20883765609990396],[0.29083147735708986,0.21807720861172977]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":40.98922007054095,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[27.175043327556327,38.197573656845755,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,34.62738301559792],[3.707973102785783,20.883765609990395,0,2.6320845341018253,0,0,0,35.75408261287224,0,9.586935638808837,0,27.43515850144092],[20.638455827765405,0,0,12.880475129918336,3.433556050482554,29.083147735708984,21.807720861172978,0,0,0,0,12.156644394951744]],"volatility_latest":47.973102785782906,"volatility_previous":81.50329796816065,"volatility_mean":64.73820037697178,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"RUFINO ELFIDIO CANIZ VICENTE","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-07-13","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sololá","name":"San Lucas Tolimán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.958393508011827,2.3432923257176306,2.1583875575305527],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-07-13|GT-M-07-13-2023-FINAL||774","GT-M-07-13|GT-M-07-13-2019-FINAL||434","GT-M-07-13|GT-M-07-13-2015-FINAL||95"],"all_keys":["GT-M-07-13|GT-M-07-13-2023-FINAL||774","GT-M-07-13|GT-M-07-13-2019-FINAL||434","GT-M-07-13|GT-M-07-13-2015-FINAL||95"],"shares":[[0.1984045113816106,0.14882057630149234],[0.2245899238429994,0.2011570005858231],[0.2257578162196477,0.20417394064434216]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":80.5306872086228,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[11.051509524791967,19.84045113816106,10.198748366687298,0,2.7370882332714395,0,0,0,0,0,0.9352864314696375,55.23691630561861],[13.678968951376683,19.22964264792033,0,0,0,0,0,2.072349150556532,20.11570005858231,0,0,44.90333919156415],[13.529598476432312,0,2.7852721790192034,1.7536898904935725,0,22.57578162196477,20.417394064434216,0,0,0,0,38.938263767655926]],"volatility_latest":24.81550863572356,"volatility_previous":47.53213775591176,"volatility_mean":36.17382319581766,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ESWIN ROLANDO BUCH TOJIN","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-07-14","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sololá","name":"Santa Cruz La Laguna","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[30.265716137394683,8.23293172690763,13.868613138686136],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-07-14|GT-M-07-14-2023-FINAL||775","GT-M-07-14|GT-M-07-14-2019-FINAL||435","GT-M-07-14|GT-M-07-14-2015-FINAL||96"],"all_keys":["GT-M-07-14|GT-M-07-14-2023-FINAL||775","GT-M-07-14|GT-M-07-14-2019-FINAL||435","GT-M-07-14|GT-M-07-14-2015-FINAL||96"],"shares":[[0.6409591704471808,0.33830200907323393],[0.356760374832664,0.2744310575635877],[0.4259124087591241,0.28722627737226275]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[33.830200907323395,64.09591704471808,0,0,0.8425145819831497,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.2313674659753726],[0.30120481927710846,27.44310575635877,0,0,0,0,0,0,15.963855421686747,0,0,56.291834002677376],[28.722627737226276,0,0,2.18978102189781,0,42.59124087591241,26.45985401459854,0,0,0,0,0.0364963503649635]],"volatility_latest":71.02432195838874,"volatility_previous":99.66229883035793,"volatility_mean":85.34331039437333,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"PEDRO JUAN SOLIS","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-07-15","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sololá","name":"San Pablo La Laguna","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.34517203107658,1.7865219357756672,8.44738084001888],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-07-15|GT-M-07-15-2023-FINAL||776","GT-M-07-15|GT-M-07-15-2019-FINAL||436","GT-M-07-15|GT-M-07-15-2015-FINAL||97"],"all_keys":["GT-M-07-15|GT-M-07-15-2023-FINAL||776","GT-M-07-15|GT-M-07-15-2019-FINAL||436","GT-M-07-15|GT-M-07-15-2015-FINAL||97"],"shares":[[0.4126526082130965,0.31920088790233075],[0.40976933514246944,0.3919041157847128],[0.38721094856064187,0.30273714016045306]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":65.06101058309733,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[31.920088790233073,41.26526082130965,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,26.814650388457274],[40.976933514246944,39.19041157847128,0,0,3.9348710990502034,0,0,4.251469923111714,0.47489823609226595,0,8.77431026684758,2.397105382180009],[30.273714016045304,0,0,1.0382255781028786,0,28.338839075035395,38.721094856064184,0,0,0,0,1.6281264747522415]],"volatility_latest":26.492394249115637,"volatility_previous":68.09815950920245,"volatility_mean":47.29527687915904,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"GASPAR IXCAYA CULUM","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-07-16","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sololá","name":"San Marcos La Laguna","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.516129032258068,6.473915776241359,7.412687099073416],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-07-16|GT-M-07-16-2023-FINAL||777","GT-M-07-16|GT-M-07-16-2019-FINAL||437","GT-M-07-16|GT-M-07-16-2015-FINAL||98"],"all_keys":["GT-M-07-16|GT-M-07-16-2023-FINAL||777","GT-M-07-16|GT-M-07-16-2019-FINAL||437","GT-M-07-16|GT-M-07-16-2015-FINAL||98"],"shares":[[0.33255131964809387,0.28739002932551316],[0.366436203645506,0.30169704588309243],[0.5260156806842481,0.45188880969351386]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":73.03439568932706,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.5278592375366569,33.25513196480939,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,66.21700879765396],[0,23.25581395348837,30.16970458830924,4.274041483343809,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,42.300439974858584],[0,0,0,0,0,45.18888096935139,52.601568068424804,0,0,0,0,2.209550962223806]],"volatility_latest":34.44374607165305,"volatility_previous":97.7904490377762,"volatility_mean":66.11709755471463,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"VICENTE RAUL PUZUL MENDOZA","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-07-17","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sololá","name":"San Juan La Laguna","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.086968602389554,0.5193119117169722,12.016888600194871],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-07-17|GT-M-07-17-2023-FINAL||778","GT-M-07-17|GT-M-07-17-2019-FINAL||438","GT-M-07-17|GT-M-07-17-2015-FINAL||99"],"all_keys":["GT-M-07-17|GT-M-07-17-2023-FINAL||778","GT-M-07-17|GT-M-07-17-2019-FINAL||438","GT-M-07-17|GT-M-07-17-2015-FINAL||99"],"shares":[[0.4617949430397333,0.33092525701583775],[0.27588445309964293,0.27069133398247325],[0.4155569990256577,0.295388113023709]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":53.951682025158455,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[20.283412058905252,46.17949430397333,33.092525701583774,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.44456793553764934],[0,27.588445309964296,0,15.903927296332359,0,0,0,0,27.069133398247324,0,0.7465108730931516,28.691983122362867],[29.5388113023709,0,1.136732705423839,0.3247807729782397,0,26.664501461513478,41.55569990256577,0,0,0,0,0.7794738551477752]],"volatility_latest":71.96698675449805,"volatility_previous":98.89574537187399,"volatility_mean":85.43136606318602,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"FRANCISS DANIEL CHAVAJAY HERRERA","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-07-18","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sololá","name":"San Pedro La Laguna","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.0109519797809625,1.6614598125532538,15.017772511848339],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-07-18|GT-M-07-18-2023-FINAL||779","GT-M-07-18|GT-M-07-18-2019-FINAL||439","GT-M-07-18|GT-M-07-18-2015-FINAL||100"],"all_keys":["GT-M-07-18|GT-M-07-18-2023-FINAL||779","GT-M-07-18|GT-M-07-18-2019-FINAL||439","GT-M-07-18|GT-M-07-18-2015-FINAL||100"],"shares":[[0.35930918281381635,0.34919966301600674],[0.22166998011928432,0.20505538199375178],[0.38773696682464454,0.23755924170616116]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":86.96606808590306,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.5897219882055602,12.945801741083965,1.6427969671440608,0,35.930918281381636,0,0,0,0,0,0,48.89076102218478],[0,18.872479409258734,0,16.898608349900595,20.505538199375177,0,0,0,0,0,15.109343936381709,28.614030105083785],[23.755924170616115,0,1.481042654028436,10.959715639810426,0,38.773696682464454,2.917654028436019,0,0,0,0,22.11196682464455]],"volatility_latest":37.93462995445707,"volatility_previous":66.92831753554502,"volatility_mean":52.43147374500104,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"CANDIDA GONZALEZ CHIPIR","party":"VIVA","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-07-19","country":"Guatemala","region":"Sololá","name":"Santiago Atitlán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.5227161220684913,14.860050890585239,0.32058132079504276],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-07-19|GT-M-07-19-2023-FINAL||780","GT-M-07-19|GT-M-07-19-2019-FINAL||440","GT-M-07-19|GT-M-07-19-2015-FINAL||101"],"all_keys":["GT-M-07-19|GT-M-07-19-2023-FINAL||780","GT-M-07-19|GT-M-07-19-2019-FINAL||440","GT-M-07-19|GT-M-07-19-2015-FINAL||101"],"shares":[[0.30360121675988616,0.26837405553920124],[0.38162849872773535,0.23302798982188297],[0.2801880743748664,0.276982261166916]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":66.98148463751915,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.14090864488274,14.630556373270533,0.7653812187224022,0,26.837405553920124,0,0,0.2943773918163085,0,0,0,53.33137081738789],[0.6157760814249363,38.162849872773535,20.783715012722645,0,0,0,0,0,0.8244274809160306,0,0,39.61323155216285],[6.491771746099594,0,13.053002778371447,28.018807437486643,0,19.817268647146825,4.044667664030776,0,0,0,0,28.574481726864715]],"volatility_latest":44.375054774419276,"volatility_previous":57.7567394133389,"volatility_mean":51.06589709387909,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"FRANCISCO COCHE PABLO","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-08-01","country":"Guatemala","region":"Totonicapán","name":"Totonicapán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.479598171454374,20.607661822985467,9.679463484184403],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-08-01|GT-M-08-01-2023-FINAL||781","GT-M-08-01|GT-M-08-01-2019-FINAL||441","GT-M-08-01|GT-M-08-01-2015-FINAL||102"],"all_keys":["GT-M-08-01|GT-M-08-01-2023-FINAL||781","GT-M-08-01|GT-M-08-01-2019-FINAL||441","GT-M-08-01|GT-M-08-01-2015-FINAL||102"],"shares":[[0.26034200575653255,0.17554602404198882],[0.3816233670923235,0.17554674886246882],[0.29772403231768496,0.20092939747584093]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":38.80998100906648,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[6.586150459958237,4.136802302613014,3.476494158812574,0,1.6733449968959873,0,0,0.3865906653874372,0,0,0,83.74061741633275],[38.16233670923235,5.727286070747101,17.554674886246882,1.6703361221194775,0,0,0,0,2.3836782621458976,1.009834140613533,2.289740202553941,31.202113606340824],[6.885990389185193,0,16.665786555420606,3.9156149337276234,2.846279769762898,29.772403231768497,20.092939747584094,0,0,0,0,19.82098537255109]],"volatility_latest":54.59843947227535,"volatility_previous":54.95690156072364,"volatility_mean":54.7776705164995,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"LUIS ALFREDO HERRERA AMADO","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-08-02","country":"Guatemala","region":"Totonicapán","name":"San Cristóbal Totonicapán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.6413255360623786,1.7022725338326659,0.6460253683132429],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-08-02|GT-M-08-02-2023-FINAL||782","GT-M-08-02|GT-M-08-02-2019-FINAL||442","GT-M-08-02|GT-M-08-02-2015-FINAL||103"],"all_keys":["GT-M-08-02|GT-M-08-02-2023-FINAL||782","GT-M-08-02|GT-M-08-02-2019-FINAL||442","GT-M-08-02|GT-M-08-02-2015-FINAL||103"],"shares":[[0.1594541910331384,0.12304093567251462],[0.1708230487701081,0.15380032343178143],[0.21106121484282675,0.2046009611596943]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":86.19960190690725,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[8.701754385964913,12.304093567251462,0,0,3.2280701754385963,0,0,0,0,0,4.34307992202729,71.42300194931774],[10.11149885096604,7.22614690611967,0,0.7660226402247,0,0,0,0,17.08230487701081,2.60447697676398,1.5831134564643798,60.62643629245043],[20.46009611596943,0,12.896872291814386,4.711258173796581,2.3398723705979676,12.495076026156148,11.959347671945167,0,0,0,0,35.13747734972032]],"volatility_latest":21.862548959000613,"volatility_previous":53.985001159088945,"volatility_mean":37.92377505904478,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"CARLOS ENRIQUE SAY MUTZ","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-08-03","country":"Guatemala","region":"Totonicapán","name":"San Francisco El Alto","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.227621351726974,0.32398107950495714,1.1107333106653066],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-08-03|GT-M-08-03-2023-FINAL||783","GT-M-08-03|GT-M-08-03-2019-FINAL||443","GT-M-08-03|GT-M-08-03-2015-FINAL||104"],"all_keys":["GT-M-08-03|GT-M-08-03-2023-FINAL||783","GT-M-08-03|GT-M-08-03-2019-FINAL||443","GT-M-08-03|GT-M-08-03-2015-FINAL||104"],"shares":[[0.36454419107427805,0.2222679775570083],[0.2014514352361822,0.19821162444113263],[0.2772866371982319,0.2661793040915788]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":56.27579767022899,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[36.4544191074278,22.22679775570083,0,0,0,0,0,0.3397333607865342,0,0,0,40.97904977608483],[4.943951273245642,20.14514352361822,0,1.457914857772306,2.0346011792911294,0,0,1.917967990669345,5.967731484481306,1.9050087474891466,0,61.62768094343291],[5.100306018361102,0,23.99410631304545,4.692281536892214,0,27.72866371982319,26.617930409157882,0,0,0,0,11.866712002720163]],"volatility_latest":33.59212206626477,"volatility_previous":81.73142186626188,"volatility_mean":57.66177196626333,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JOSE PASTOR HERNANDEZ","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-08-04","country":"Guatemala","region":"Totonicapán","name":"San Andrés Xecul","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.9792670797949654,3.822078907435511,3.3950062870486803],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-08-04|GT-M-08-04-2023-FINAL||784","GT-M-08-04|GT-M-08-04-2019-FINAL||444","GT-M-08-04|GT-M-08-04-2015-FINAL||105"],"all_keys":["GT-M-08-04|GT-M-08-04-2023-FINAL||784","GT-M-08-04|GT-M-08-04-2019-FINAL||444","GT-M-08-04|GT-M-08-04-2015-FINAL||105"],"shares":[[0.242751128452299,0.23295845765434933],[0.26507966616084977,0.22685887708649466],[0.24205137416921144,0.20810131129872464]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":89.6315772559375,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[24.2751128452299,23.295845765434933,6.112768724657639,0,1.744319485884783,0,0,0,0,0,2.2033509295386735,42.368602249254074],[26.50796661608498,13.182852807283764,0,2.9874810318664644,2.655538694992413,0,0,0,0,0,7.207890743550835,47.45827010622154],[8.577330698760553,0,24.205137416921144,12.906412789653315,0,20.810131129872463,17.415124842823783,0,0,0,0,16.085863121968742]],"volatility_latest":16.225761682808805,"volatility_previous":72.34932514740424,"volatility_mean":44.287543415106526,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"FRANCISCO EDUARDO CHUC PAXTOR","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-08-05","country":"Guatemala","region":"Totonicapán","name":"Momostenango","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.49370593070035,12.578361981799798,0.7623160306689023],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-08-05|GT-M-08-05-2023-FINAL||785","GT-M-08-05|GT-M-08-05-2019-FINAL||445","GT-M-08-05|GT-M-08-05-2015-FINAL||106"],"all_keys":["GT-M-08-05|GT-M-08-05-2023-FINAL||785","GT-M-08-05|GT-M-08-05-2019-FINAL||445","GT-M-08-05|GT-M-08-05-2015-FINAL||106"],"shares":[[0.2334212916900982,0.11848423238309469],[0.2457027300303337,0.1199191102123357],[0.28285009253547194,0.2752269322287829]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":46.2701812198648,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[10.68477743651858,10.996236535882684,3.9235194878228143,0,1.838473850413116,0,0,0.423930440801142,0,0,0,72.13306224856166],[11.99191102123357,8.963599595551061,24.570273003033368,0.9302325581395349,1.5722952477249748,0,0,3.2002022244691606,3.058645096056623,0,2.416582406471183,43.296258847320516],[8.812902088657795,0,17.43632678240945,7.147263593901472,0,27.522693222878292,28.285009253547194,0,0,0,0,10.795805058605799]],"volatility_latest":31.1356189442609,"volatility_previous":62.02473351218742,"volatility_mean":46.58017622822416,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ALBINO CUYUCH CHAJ","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-08-06","country":"Guatemala","region":"Totonicapán","name":"Santa María Chiquimula","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.602735822171557,6.218202374222724,10.586074469861412],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-08-06|GT-M-08-06-2023-FINAL||786","GT-M-08-06|GT-M-08-06-2019-FINAL||446","GT-M-08-06|GT-M-08-06-2015-FINAL||107"],"all_keys":["GT-M-08-06|GT-M-08-06-2023-FINAL||786","GT-M-08-06|GT-M-08-06-2019-FINAL||446","GT-M-08-06|GT-M-08-06-2015-FINAL||107"],"shares":[[0.3164006839555429,0.16037332573382732],[0.2514737947185658,0.18929177097633854],[0.31466021038570713,0.208799465687093]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":38.57145173722054,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[9.183528070675406,6.960672556283842,6.020233684810488,0,2.7215730977486463,0,0,0,0,0,0,75.11399259048162],[10.425583461196801,16.950658160381167,0,6.799644674150044,4.158927561980134,0,0,0,5.677138011790357,0,0.7833319874020835,55.20471614309941],[19.402237435298048,0,5.067623977291701,1.243947236600434,12.50626147937886,31.466021038570712,20.8799465687093,0,0,0,0,9.433962264150944]],"volatility_latest":25.929510132192693,"volatility_previous":74.73757947607169,"volatility_mean":50.33354480413219,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JUAN CARLOS CARRILLO CASTRO","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-08-07","country":"Guatemala","region":"Totonicapán","name":"Santa Lucía La Reforma","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[23.549750288129083,6.888191671420422,16.550185873605948],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-08-07|GT-M-08-07-2023-FINAL||787","GT-M-08-07|GT-M-08-07-2019-FINAL||447","GT-M-08-07|GT-M-08-07-2015-FINAL||108"],"all_keys":["GT-M-08-07|GT-M-08-07-2023-FINAL||787","GT-M-08-07|GT-M-08-07-2019-FINAL||447","GT-M-08-07|GT-M-08-07-2015-FINAL||108"],"shares":[[0.5893200153668844,0.35382251248559354],[0.41600114090131207,0.34711922418710783],[0.575910780669145,0.41040892193308554]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":10.743368691679155,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[58.93200153668844,35.382251248559356,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,5.685747214752209],[2.609811751283514,41.60011409013121,18.81061038220194,0.17113519680547631,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,36.80832857957787],[1.3680297397769516,0,0,0,0,57.5910780669145,41.04089219330855,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":56.32218978540492,"volatility_previous":98.63197026022306,"volatility_mean":77.477080022814,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JUAN CHIVALAN TIU","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-08-08","country":"Guatemala","region":"Totonicapán","name":"San Bartolo","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.643059490084987,10.30876494023904,1.1566771819137713],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-08-08|GT-M-08-08-2023-FINAL||788","GT-M-08-08|GT-M-08-08-2019-FINAL||448","GT-M-08-08|GT-M-08-08-2015-FINAL||109"],"all_keys":["GT-M-08-08|GT-M-08-08-2023-FINAL||788","GT-M-08-08|GT-M-08-08-2019-FINAL||448","GT-M-08-08|GT-M-08-08-2015-FINAL||109"],"shares":[[0.48371104815864024,0.31728045325779036],[0.3911852589641434,0.288097609561753],[0.33412197686645634,0.3225552050473186]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":34.02933552842959,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[31.728045325779036,1.7941454202077431,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,66.47780925401322],[28.8097609561753,39.11852589641434,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,32.07171314741036],[6.808622502628812,0,32.25552050473186,6.125131440588854,0,19.190325972660357,33.412197686645634,0,0,0,0,2.2082018927444795]],"volatility_latest":37.3243804762066,"volatility_previous":90.98317560462671,"volatility_mean":64.15377804041665,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"PEDRO ARAEL PEREZ RUANO","party":"BIEN","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-09-01","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quetzaltenango","name":"Quetzaltenango","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.963341605123558,12.357016271951023,18.563250284779624],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-09-01|GT-M-09-01-2023-FINAL||789","GT-M-09-01|GT-M-09-01-2019-FINAL||449","GT-M-09-01|GT-M-09-01-2015-FINAL||110"],"all_keys":["GT-M-09-01|GT-M-09-01-2023-FINAL||789","GT-M-09-01|GT-M-09-01-2019-FINAL||449","GT-M-09-01|GT-M-09-01-2015-FINAL||110"],"shares":[[0.26088830111297684,0.15125488506174123],[0.21701304978250363,0.09344288706299339],[0.33501767094079504,0.14938516809299882]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":39.292825634312976,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.582670847140289,4.223070864971692,2.3329420330772543,0,1.3953073688277338,0,0,3.6658394876443228,1.172414817896786,0,4.70451877498254,77.9232358054594],[1.1922023521830192,5.203802158852908,0.9730948928628967,4.910584823586274,5.319800225551797,0,0,7.617206379893668,1.0310939262123409,0.9457064604478814,4.549701949411954,68.25680683099728],[14.93851680929988,0,5.460466746502322,3.8773841165990013,3.899290241551538,9.502877004410433,10.46674650232205,0,0,0,0,51.85471857931478]],"volatility_latest":14.71288232688878,"volatility_previous":38.20330981748878,"volatility_mean":26.45809607218878,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JUAN FERNANDO LÓPEZ FUENTES","party":"PHG","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-09-02","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quetzaltenango","name":"Salcajá","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.045227299151264,8.157560355781449,10.872466933624558],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-09-02|GT-M-09-02-2023-FINAL||790","GT-M-09-02|GT-M-09-02-2019-FINAL||450","GT-M-09-02|GT-M-09-02-2015-FINAL||111"],"all_keys":["GT-M-09-02|GT-M-09-02-2023-FINAL||790","GT-M-09-02|GT-M-09-02-2019-FINAL||450","GT-M-09-02|GT-M-09-02-2015-FINAL||111"],"shares":[[0.399023369375654,0.28857109638414136],[0.49898348157560357,0.41740787801778906],[0.35493265380414996,0.24620798446790437]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":49.191744102061755,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[28.857109638414137,39.9023369375654,1.162655505173817,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,30.077897918846645],[0,41.74078780177891,0,0,0,0,0,49.898348157560356,4.980940279542566,0,0,3.37992376111817],[19.42725397403228,0,0,4.805242082271569,0,24.620798446790438,8.955223880597014,0,0,0,0,42.1914816163087]],"volatility_latest":56.71773930131643,"volatility_previous":96.62007623888184,"volatility_mean":76.66890777009914,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"WILIAM BERNARD CALDERON DE LEÓN","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-09-03","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quetzaltenango","name":"Olintepeque","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.63085517834121,1.7457850053808457,3.832075040036603],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-09-03|GT-M-09-03-2023-FINAL||791","GT-M-09-03|GT-M-09-03-2019-FINAL||451","GT-M-09-03|GT-M-09-03-2015-FINAL||112"],"all_keys":["GT-M-09-03|GT-M-09-03-2023-FINAL||791","GT-M-09-03|GT-M-09-03-2019-FINAL||451","GT-M-09-03|GT-M-09-03-2015-FINAL||112"],"shares":[[0.35485603781693165,0.18854748603351953],[0.22133205787396867,0.20387420782016022],[0.23301304049416607,0.19469229009380004]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":45.5727194368868,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.461968199398367,35.485603781693165,12.505371723248818,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,51.54705629565965],[4.232930766471362,8.166925744350113,7.054884610785603,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2.295826856391247,78.24943202200166],[0.766415008007321,0,3.6948066803935027,17.398764584763214,3.9350263097689315,23.301304049416608,0,0,0,0,0,50.90368336765043]],"volatility_latest":32.769165149806255,"volatility_previous":44.635094943948744,"volatility_mean":38.7021300468775,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"OMAR MOISES DE LEON CIFUENTES","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-09-04","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quetzaltenango","name":"San Carlos Sija","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.4414338131526954,16.922599658756013,12.955465587044536],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-09-04|GT-M-09-04-2023-FINAL||792","GT-M-09-04|GT-M-09-04-2019-FINAL||452","GT-M-09-04|GT-M-09-04-2015-FINAL||113"],"all_keys":["GT-M-09-04|GT-M-09-04-2023-FINAL||792","GT-M-09-04|GT-M-09-04-2019-FINAL||452","GT-M-09-04|GT-M-09-04-2015-FINAL||113"],"shares":[[0.23468811741462037,0.21027377928309343],[0.37552349930200096,0.2062975027144408],[0.3703906335485283,0.24083597767808293]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":60.814066278885626,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,16.89246401354784,5.306237651707592,0,2.5261078182331356,0,0,0,0,0,0,75.27519051651144],[7.119590507212657,20.62975027144408,11.230029471071816,0,0,0,0,0.23266635644485809,0,0,0,60.78796339382659],[24.083597767808293,0,3.6984352773826457,37.03906335485283,0,16.621074515811358,8.56767698872962,0,0,0,0,9.990152095415253]],"volatility_latest":17.013334940917986,"volatility_previous":79.19182211998944,"volatility_mean":48.10257853045371,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JUAN BENJAMIN SANTOS MENDEZ","party":"VALOR UNIONISTA","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-09-05","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quetzaltenango","name":"Sibilia","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[44.95821727019499,9.285277947464877,1.609963547995136],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-09-05|GT-M-09-05-2023-FINAL||793","GT-M-09-05|GT-M-09-05-2019-FINAL||453","GT-M-09-05|GT-M-09-05-2015-FINAL||114"],"all_keys":["GT-M-09-05|GT-M-09-05-2023-FINAL||793","GT-M-09-05|GT-M-09-05-2019-FINAL||453","GT-M-09-05|GT-M-09-05-2015-FINAL||114"],"shares":[[0.6866295264623956,0.23704735376044567],[0.49114233353695785,0.3982895540623091],[0.42010935601458077,0.4040097205346294]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,68.66295264623956,7.632311977715878,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,23.704735376044567],[6.078191814294441,0,49.11423335369579,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,44.80757483200978],[0.850546780072904,0,40.400972053462944,0,0,14.580801944106925,42.01093560145808,0,0,0,0,2.1567436208991495]],"volatility_latest":68.66295264623956,"volatility_previous":56.59173754556501,"volatility_mean":62.627345095902285,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"GELVER FACUNDO OCHOA GRAMAJO","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-09-06","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quetzaltenango","name":"Cabricán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.829644823491314,0.8323281061519907,18.922696484249002],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-09-06|GT-M-09-06-2023-FINAL||794","GT-M-09-06|GT-M-09-06-2019-FINAL||454","GT-M-09-06|GT-M-09-06-2015-FINAL||115"],"all_keys":["GT-M-09-06|GT-M-09-06-2023-FINAL||794","GT-M-09-06|GT-M-09-06-2019-FINAL||454","GT-M-09-06|GT-M-09-06-2015-FINAL||115"],"shares":[[0.4632408506963187,0.40494440246140556],[0.2559710494571773,0.2476477683956574],[0.45521986883130844,0.2659929039888184]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":71.80122512817357,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.4034330130627226,46.32408506963187,0.21591277124041888,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.05656914606499],[25.59710494571773,24.76477683956574,0,0,0,0,0,0.37394451145958985,4.487334137515078,0,1.7249698431845597,43.0518697225573],[2.515858509837652,0,0,45.52198688313084,0,26.59929039888184,25.362864208149663,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":30.779920424814236,"volatility_previous":97.48414149016234,"volatility_mean":64.1320309574883,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ELEAZAR ESAU LOPEZ Y LOPEZ","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-09-07","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quetzaltenango","name":"Cajolá","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.0980830076307484,0.2731092436974798,20.759193357058123],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-09-07|GT-M-09-07-2023-FINAL||795","GT-M-09-07|GT-M-09-07-2019-FINAL||455","GT-M-09-07|GT-M-09-07-2015-FINAL||116"],"all_keys":["GT-M-09-07|GT-M-09-07-2023-FINAL||795","GT-M-09-07|GT-M-09-07-2019-FINAL||455","GT-M-09-07|GT-M-09-07-2015-FINAL||116"],"shares":[[0.34263912153359394,0.3316582914572864],[0.22815126050420168,0.2254201680672269],[0.3977856860419138,0.19019375247133255]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":85.91649043303246,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[9.43606923506421,20.807742415782617,33.165829145728644,0,0.3163967988088591,0,0,0,0,0,0,36.27396240461567],[21.449579831932773,8.214285714285714,22.54201680672269,0,3.130252100840336,0,0,0,22.81512605042017,0,0,21.84873949579832],[19.019375247133254,0,8.185053380782918,0,0,11.486753657572162,39.77856860419138,0,0,0,0,21.530249110320284]],"volatility_latest":37.64249194932021,"volatility_previous":51.265322261763544,"volatility_mean":44.45390710554187,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"FIDEL LUCAS MOLINA","party":"VICTORIA","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-09-08","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quetzaltenango","name":"San Miguel Sigüilá","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.030615337981203,21.33971291866029,9.789569990850865],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-09-08|GT-M-09-08-2023-FINAL||796","GT-M-09-08|GT-M-09-08-2019-FINAL||456","GT-M-09-08|GT-M-09-08-2015-FINAL||117"],"all_keys":["GT-M-09-08|GT-M-09-08-2023-FINAL||796","GT-M-09-08|GT-M-09-08-2019-FINAL||456","GT-M-09-08|GT-M-09-08-2015-FINAL||117"],"shares":[[0.3473779933313125,0.3370718399515005],[0.4210526315789474,0.2076555023923445],[0.33211344922232383,0.2342177493138152]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":60.00379961264053,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,21.612609881782358,0,0,8.699605941194301,0,0,33.70718399515005,0,0,0,35.98060018187329],[16.523125996810208,0,20.76555023923445,0,0,0,0,42.10526315789474,15.725677830940988,0,0,4.880382775119617],[23.42177493138152,0,0,2.073802988716072,0,33.211344922232385,18.05428484293992,0,0,0,0,23.2387923147301]],"volatility_latest":61.41243322973034,"volatility_previous":78.59649122807018,"volatility_mean":70.00446222890025,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"REMIGIO VICENTE ALONZO","party":"VICTORIA","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-09-09","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quetzaltenango","name":"Ostuncalco","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.1975711233554485,0.7020386121236655,18.16759910966733],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-09-09|GT-M-09-09-2023-FINAL||797","GT-M-09-09|GT-M-09-09-2019-FINAL||457","GT-M-09-09|GT-M-09-09-2015-FINAL||118"],"all_keys":["GT-M-09-09|GT-M-09-09-2023-FINAL||797","GT-M-09-09|GT-M-09-09-2019-FINAL||457","GT-M-09-09|GT-M-09-09-2015-FINAL||118"],"shares":[[0.26414033509501855,0.2521646238614641],[0.17962737950587282,0.17260699338463617],[0.37141310232809965,0.18973711123142636]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":86.2704291569145,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.1582143258742832,7.415945125379512,25.216462386146407,0,1.8835038794557517,0,0,3.0360958056898686,0,0,0,61.28977847745417],[17.260699338463617,6.770622384231133,7.398406912380181,0.46577561765897124,0,0,0,1.3230727690022952,0,1.2353179424868368,1.2825705413797759,64.26353449439718],[16.92233652168682,0,37.141310232809964,1.455814233291223,4.289237803043975,18.973711123142635,5.594658003970403,0,0,0,0,15.622932082054982]],"volatility_latest":22.059905131057928,"volatility_previous":59.59054886621904,"volatility_mean":40.825226998638485,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"FILIBERTO ROMERO VASQUEZ","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-09-10","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quetzaltenango","name":"San Mateo","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.471744471744472,26.942245675754908,16.590003066544003],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-09-10|GT-M-09-10-2023-FINAL||798","GT-M-09-10|GT-M-09-10-2019-FINAL||458","GT-M-09-10|GT-M-09-10-2015-FINAL||119"],"all_keys":["GT-M-09-10|GT-M-09-10-2023-FINAL||798","GT-M-09-10|GT-M-09-10-2019-FINAL||458","GT-M-09-10|GT-M-09-10-2015-FINAL||119"],"shares":[[0.33464373464373465,0.28992628992628994],[0.44737613603048954,0.17795367927294048],[0.41030358785648574,0.2444035571910457]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":37.87639653786222,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.7936117936117937,28.992628992628994,6.805896805896806,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,62.40786240786241],[44.737613603048956,17.79536792729405,0,0,0,0,0,0,2.4039871005570213,0,0,35.06303136909997],[0,0,41.03035878564857,5.366452008586323,0,24.44035571910457,0,0,0,0,0,29.16283348666053]],"volatility_latest":45.347988909994186,"volatility_previous":70.83716651333947,"volatility_mean":58.09257771166683,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JASON JOSUE LOPEZ","party":"PPN","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-09-11","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quetzaltenango","name":"Concepción Chiquirichapa","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.505836575875485,4.235447437011295,3.084355258268303],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-09-11|GT-M-09-11-2023-FINAL||799","GT-M-09-11|GT-M-09-11-2019-FINAL||459","GT-M-09-11|GT-M-09-11-2015-FINAL||120"],"all_keys":["GT-M-09-11|GT-M-09-11-2023-FINAL||799","GT-M-09-11|GT-M-09-11-2019-FINAL||459","GT-M-09-11|GT-M-09-11-2015-FINAL||120"],"shares":[[0.24656973172230184,0.141511365963547],[0.25955690703735884,0.21720243266724587],[0.2344853214418432,0.20364176885916016]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":60.58714148772245,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[7.208683186565636,14.1511365963547,1.5768994470612328,0,2.0888797870161784,0,0,0,0,0,0,74.97440098300225],[16.985230234578626,0,0,0,0,0,0,10.143353605560382,0,3.735881841876629,2.6064291920069507,66.52910512597741],[20.364176885916017,0,2.192493496841323,7.766629505759941,0,12.801932367149758,23.44853214418432,0,0,0,0,33.426235600148644]],"volatility_latest":26.262211687456954,"volatility_previous":49.588534165272726,"volatility_mean":37.925372926364844,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"PEDRO SANCHEZ CORTEZ","party":"CCDC","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-09-12","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quetzaltenango","name":"San Martín Sacatepéquez","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.369408105388345,7.508852322432826,8.440040084623092],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-09-12|GT-M-09-12-2023-FINAL||800","GT-M-09-12|GT-M-09-12-2019-FINAL||460","GT-M-09-12|GT-M-09-12-2015-FINAL||121"],"all_keys":["GT-M-09-12|GT-M-09-12-2023-FINAL||800","GT-M-09-12|GT-M-09-12-2019-FINAL||460","GT-M-09-12|GT-M-09-12-2015-FINAL||121"],"shares":[[0.37096331534168875,0.3472692342878053],[0.3936679858362841,0.3185794626119558],[0.3040864046320009,0.21968600378576997]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":77.40847715787417,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.177293934681182,37.096331534168876,0.26530052145274907,0,0,0,0,0.67697374439667,0,0,0,59.784100265300516],[0,31.857946261195583,13.143095188502395,0,39.36679858362841,0,0,0,0,0,0,15.632159966673608],[4.342500835096314,0,0,0,17.893330364101992,21.968600378576998,30.40864046320009,0,0,0,0,25.386927959024607]],"volatility_latest":52.24459325067806,"volatility_previous":66.4745096692244,"volatility_mean":59.359551459951234,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MIGUEL GOMEZ GUZMAN","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-09-13","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quetzaltenango","name":"Almolonga","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.579856394333397,15.071450601418732,1.8292034457088207],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-09-13|GT-M-09-13-2023-FINAL||801","GT-M-09-13|GT-M-09-13-2019-FINAL||461","GT-M-09-13|GT-M-09-13-2015-FINAL||122"],"all_keys":["GT-M-09-13|GT-M-09-13-2023-FINAL||801","GT-M-09-13|GT-M-09-13-2019-FINAL||461","GT-M-09-13|GT-M-09-13-2015-FINAL||122"],"shares":[[0.5133902581020764,0.46759169415874247],[0.4768171070216922,0.3261026010075049],[0.507816654259279,0.48952461980219075]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":62.7386531920173,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,46.75916941587425,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,53.24083058412575],[0,47.68171070216922,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.31828929783078],[0,0,0,0,0,48.95246198021908,0,0,0,0,0,51.04753801978092]],"volatility_latest":0.9225412862949725,"volatility_previous":48.95246198021908,"volatility_mean":24.937501633257025,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"PEDRO ARMANDO SIQUINA SIQUINA","party":"C.C.A.","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-09-14","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quetzaltenango","name":"Cantel","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.798482179157066,8.101045296167246,12.51900273639404],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-09-14|GT-M-09-14-2023-FINAL||802","GT-M-09-14|GT-M-09-14-2019-FINAL||462","GT-M-09-14|GT-M-09-14-2015-FINAL||123"],"all_keys":["GT-M-09-14|GT-M-09-14-2023-FINAL||802","GT-M-09-14|GT-M-09-14-2019-FINAL||462","GT-M-09-14|GT-M-09-14-2015-FINAL||123"],"shares":[[0.23261959615123998,0.20463477435966934],[0.2526924295216978,0.17168197656002535],[0.3273031316509577,0.20211310428701734]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":73.1934841500809,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.5556308442878439,19.298007860143652,23.261959615124,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,56.88440168044451],[0,11.094393411466582,25.26924295216978,0,9.534368070953438,0,0,9.098828001267025,1.005701615457713,0,8.417801710484637,35.57966423820083],[5.6172088780784435,0,12.74703557312253,1.535421100638492,0,32.73031316509577,0,0,0,0,0,47.37002128306476]],"volatility_latest":30.063982735208597,"volatility_previous":51.67330018867664,"volatility_mean":40.868641461942616,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ALLAN EDUARDO CABRERA SACALXOT","party":"TODOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-09-15","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quetzaltenango","name":"Huitán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":2,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.278880866425993,12.581025338833236,5.904522613065325],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-09-15|GT-M-09-15-2023-FINAL||803","GT-M-09-15|GT-M-09-15-2019-FINAL||463","GT-M-09-15|GT-M-09-15-2015-FINAL||124"],"all_keys":["GT-M-09-15|GT-M-09-15-2023-FINAL||803","GT-M-09-15|GT-M-09-15-2019-FINAL||463","GT-M-09-15|GT-M-09-15-2015-FINAL||124"],"shares":[[0.35085740072202165,0.32806859205776173],[0.36977018267530937,0.24395992928697702],[0.42462311557788945,0.3655778894472362]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":71.3395580859395,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[12.522563176895307,32.80685920577617,0.8348375451263538,0,3.1362815884476536,0,0,0,0,0,0,50.69945848375451],[36.97701826753094,14.584560989982322,0.9428403064230996,0,0,0,0,0,7.159693576900413,0,0,40.335886859163224],[16.231155778894472,0,1.6080402010050252,0,0,42.462311557788944,36.55778894472362,0,0,0,0,3.14070351758794]],"volatility_latest":31.722151428832788,"volatility_previous":79.6853003970945,"volatility_mean":55.70372591296364,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"LUIS MACARIO LÓPEZ VAIL","party":"VALOR UNIONISTA","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":2,"Final source with documented extraction/source reconciliation limits":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-09-16","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quetzaltenango","name":"Zunil","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[21.505791505791503,3.5567521609749235,13.682597185453538],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-09-16|GT-M-09-16-2023-FINAL||804","GT-M-09-16|GT-M-09-16-2019-FINAL||464","GT-M-09-16|GT-M-09-16-2015-FINAL||125"],"all_keys":["GT-M-09-16|GT-M-09-16-2023-FINAL||804","GT-M-09-16|GT-M-09-16-2019-FINAL||464","GT-M-09-16|GT-M-09-16-2015-FINAL||125"],"shares":[[0.4752895752895753,0.2602316602316602],[0.35921779793113223,0.323650276321383],[0.5003483349588965,0.36352236310436115]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":23.30619864843634,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.296010296010296,23.500643500643502,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,76.2033462033462],[32.3650276321383,6.674224174578433,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,60.960748193283266],[0,0,0,0,0,36.35223631043611,0,0,0,0,0,63.64776368956389]],"volatility_latest":32.069017336128006,"volatility_previous":39.039251806716734,"volatility_mean":35.55413457142237,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"BERNABE MATEO XICAY HUIX","party":"WINAQ","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-09-17","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quetzaltenango","name":"Colomba","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.597374179431071,29.3398533007335,13.501585130850998],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-09-17|GT-M-09-17-2023-FINAL||805","GT-M-09-17|GT-M-09-17-2019-FINAL||465","GT-M-09-17|GT-M-09-17-2015-FINAL||126"],"all_keys":["GT-M-09-17|GT-M-09-17-2023-FINAL||805","GT-M-09-17|GT-M-09-17-2019-FINAL||465","GT-M-09-17|GT-M-09-17-2015-FINAL||126"],"shares":[[0.4817222293731497,0.365748487578839],[0.4697170799860287,0.17631854697869367],[0.28973705476471684,0.15472120345620688]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":14.447304945181049,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[5.399665336594157,48.17222293731497,36.5748487578839,0,0.9331960355258077,0,0,0,0,0,0,8.92006693268117],[46.97170799860287,0,0,1.5997205728257073,7.153335661893119,0,0,0,6.699266503667482,0,0,37.575969263010826],[11.431590725430471,0,2.529993162180643,3.897557033629639,0.5656741468266302,28.973705476471686,13.371044943121776,0,0,0,0,39.23043451233916]],"volatility_latest":84.74707169519887,"volatility_previous":48.827045291906366,"volatility_mean":66.78705849355262,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ISIDRO HERMINIO CASTILLO DIAZ","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-09-18","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quetzaltenango","name":"San Francisco La Unión","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.626522327469551,4.801536491677339,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-09-18|GT-M-09-18-2023-FINAL||806","GT-M-09-18|GT-M-09-18-2019-FINAL||466","GT-M-09-18|GT-M-09-18-2015-FINAL||127"],"all_keys":["GT-M-09-18|GT-M-09-18-2023-FINAL||806","GT-M-09-18|GT-M-09-18-2019-FINAL||466","GT-M-09-18|GT-M-09-18-2015-FINAL||127"],"shares":[[0.42658998646820023,0.34032476319350474],[0.367157490396927,0.31914212548015364],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.7780784844384303,34.03247631935047,11.603518267929635,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,53.58592692828146],[0,0,0,0,36.7157490396927,0,0,0,0,0,1.8886043533930859,61.39564660691421],null],"volatility_latest":46.41407307171854,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"FRANCISCO GONZALEZ MATUL","party":"U R N G - MAIZ","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":2,"Final source with documented extraction/source reconciliation limits":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-09-19","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quetzaltenango","name":"El Palmar","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.469694260683,0.31707067607650785,9.991386735572785],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-09-19|GT-M-09-19-2023-FINAL||807","GT-M-09-19|GT-M-09-19-2019-FINAL||467","GT-M-09-19|GT-M-09-19-2015-FINAL||128"],"all_keys":["GT-M-09-19|GT-M-09-19-2023-FINAL||807","GT-M-09-19|GT-M-09-19-2019-FINAL||467","GT-M-09-19|GT-M-09-19-2015-FINAL||128"],"shares":[[0.38950473806543895,0.274807795458609],[0.2563158433057175,0.2531451365449524],[0.3713273997511724,0.2714135323954445]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":60.11961783604984,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[5.4174861433935275,27.480779545860898,0.29501162166994455,0,0.8582156266762024,0,0,1.2873234400143037,0,0,0,64.66118362238514],[8.550680167740616,25.314513654495244,0,0,24.09737138181446,0,0,0,3.68211107701749,0,0.6341413521530121,37.721182366779175],[13.340989568379749,0,0,1.8183558235237822,0,27.141353239544454,37.13273997511724,0,0,0,0,20.56656139343478]],"volatility_latest":30.68860220865586,"volatility_previous":70.88275843882461,"volatility_mean":50.78568032374024,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MANUEL ARSENIO PALMA","party":"VICTORIA","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-09-20","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quetzaltenango","name":"Coatepeque","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.8208263213929996,0.1826994780014921,21.41193503713962],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-09-20|GT-M-09-20-2023-FINAL||808","GT-M-09-20|GT-M-09-20-2019-FINAL||468","GT-M-09-20|GT-M-09-20-2015-FINAL||129"],"all_keys":["GT-M-09-20|GT-M-09-20-2023-FINAL||808","GT-M-09-20|GT-M-09-20-2019-FINAL||468","GT-M-09-20|GT-M-09-20-2015-FINAL||129"],"shares":[[0.20637428306487618,0.19816601985094617],[0.14108873974645786,0.13926174496644295],[0.3487347349867808,0.1346153846153846]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":86.55750430024895,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[5.488202768142322,19.2533571453103,7.30844523817701,0,20.637428306487617,0,0,0,0,0,1.2295222722121097,46.08304426967063],[14.108873974645787,2.8187919463087248,7.278150633855332,0.6375838926174496,13.926174496644295,0,0,1.6144668158090978,0,0,1.7598806860551828,57.85607755406413],[34.87347349867808,0,8.834823114692181,4.119979856477402,9.967896260858618,8.664862142767216,13.357673423139872,0,0,0,0,20.18129170338663]],"volatility_latest":23.17611361316658,"volatility_previous":47.82620353463618,"volatility_mean":35.50115857390138,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ALFONSO GARCÍA-JUNCO HEMMERLING","party":"VIVA","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-09-21","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quetzaltenango","name":"Génova","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.546824542518838,4.993388815431281,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-09-21|GT-M-09-21-2023-FINAL||809","GT-M-09-21|GT-M-09-21-2019-FINAL||469","GT-M-09-21|GT-M-09-21-2015-FINAL||130"],"all_keys":["GT-M-09-21|GT-M-09-21-2023-FINAL||809","GT-M-09-21|GT-M-09-21-2019-FINAL||469","GT-M-09-21|GT-M-09-21-2015-FINAL||130"],"shares":[[0.30147111589522785,0.21600287047003947],[0.3328925876954188,0.282958699541106],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.181557229996412,30.147111589522783,1.1697165410836023,0,8.188015787585217,0,0,0,0,0,0.35880875493362036,57.95479009687836],[28.2958699541106,6.4167379637551525,0,0,0,0,0,0,23.372481916465738,0,0,41.91491016566851],null],"volatility_latest":49.48679464057992,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"EDILSON GUDIBERTO MENDEZ CALMO","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":2,"Final source with documented extraction/source reconciliation limits":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-09-22","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quetzaltenango","name":"Flores Costa Cuca","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.739516227057244,14.609271523178805,10.097062901802595],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-09-22|GT-M-09-22-2023-FINAL||810","GT-M-09-22|GT-M-09-22-2019-FINAL||470","GT-M-09-22|GT-M-09-22-2015-FINAL||131"],"all_keys":["GT-M-09-22|GT-M-09-22-2023-FINAL||810","GT-M-09-22|GT-M-09-22-2019-FINAL||470","GT-M-09-22|GT-M-09-22-2015-FINAL||131"],"shares":[[0.45387139905190227,0.3664762367813298],[0.4136423841059602,0.2675496688741722],[0.515819992436657,0.41484936341863105]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":46.81901258315876,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.7161784368542605,45.387139905190224,0.29172237753737695,0,10.429074996961225,0,0,0,0,0,0,39.17588428345691],[26.75496688741722,41.36423841059602,2.437086092715232,0.9006622516556292,1.6158940397350994,0,0,0,0,2.5695364238410594,0,24.357615894039732],[41.484936341863104,0,0,3.2900542039581495,0,51.5819992436657,2.811042480776503,0,0,0,0,0.8319677297365435]],"volatility_latest":27.654350841237502,"volatility_previous":71.51240313119061,"volatility_mean":49.583376986214056,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MARIO RENE LOZANO GIRON","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-09-23","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quetzaltenango","name":"La Esperanza","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.673358788028082,3.342736248236953,15.392998229124096],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-09-23|GT-M-09-23-2023-FINAL||811","GT-M-09-23|GT-M-09-23-2019-FINAL||471","GT-M-09-23|GT-M-09-23-2015-FINAL||132"],"all_keys":["GT-M-09-23|GT-M-09-23-2023-FINAL||811","GT-M-09-23|GT-M-09-23-2019-FINAL||471","GT-M-09-23|GT-M-09-23-2015-FINAL||132"],"shares":[[0.2297080921295726,0.15297450424929177],[0.2165021156558533,0.18307475317348376],[0.3382372973709304,0.18430731507968942]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":64.26932014899828,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.6035226013055796,9.853430225397217,5.3578026850597364,0,15.297450424929178,0,0,3.0176130065278977,0,0,0,65.87018105678038],[0,8.42031029619182,21.65021156558533,0,0,0,0,8.166431593794076,0,1.6784203102961919,3.794076163610719,56.29055007052187],[14.957090314671026,0,33.82372973709304,2.765290832311674,10.911319983653453,18.430731507968943,4.0457703310175726,0,0,0,0,15.066067293284295]],"volatility_latest":26.913723941698674,"volatility_previous":63.28372114113038,"volatility_mean":45.098722541414524,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ARMANDO IXTABALAN GOMEZ","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-09-24","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quetzaltenango","name":"Palestina De Los Altos","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.662048305560756,5.710040331139886,11.16107931316435],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-09-24|GT-M-09-24-2023-FINAL||812","GT-M-09-24|GT-M-09-24-2019-FINAL||472","GT-M-09-24|GT-M-09-24-2015-FINAL||133"],"all_keys":["GT-M-09-24|GT-M-09-24-2023-FINAL||812","GT-M-09-24|GT-M-09-24-2019-FINAL||472","GT-M-09-24|GT-M-09-24-2015-FINAL||133"],"shares":[[0.2870249017038008,0.2404044186481932],[0.27149225217575884,0.21439184886436],[0.28761242845461976,0.17600163532297627]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":71.86825493002573,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.617861823628534,20.614117206515633,3.782063284029208,0,0,0,0,24.04044186481932,0,0,28.702490170380077,22.243025650627224],[27.149225217575886,9.191254510719592,21.439184886436,0,0,0,0,19.528762470812993,0,0,3.5448949267671406,19.14667798768839],[16.128372853638595,0,4.82420278004906,1.8806214227309894,15.474243663123467,17.60016353229763,28.76124284546198,0,0,0,0,15.331152902698284]],"volatility_latest":44.18848499635414,"volatility_previous":63.71627146361406,"volatility_mean":53.952378229984106,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"GENARO MENDEZ CARRETO","party":"SEMILLA","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-10-01","country":"Guatemala","region":"Suchitepéquez","name":"Mazatenango","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.819300711213323,1.9010752688172037,23.842163764357167],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-10-01|GT-M-10-01-2023-FINAL||813","GT-M-10-01|GT-M-10-01-2019-FINAL||473","GT-M-10-01|GT-M-10-01-2015-FINAL||134"],"all_keys":["GT-M-10-01|GT-M-10-01-2023-FINAL||813","GT-M-10-01|GT-M-10-01-2019-FINAL||473","GT-M-10-01|GT-M-10-01-2015-FINAL||134"],"shares":[[0.21681359396959243,0.18862058685745922],[0.15595698924731183,0.1369462365591398],[0.3796220822526862,0.1412004446091145]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":76.76940308095564,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[11.451812103402752,21.681359396959245,18.86205868574592,0,3.5603253694476384,0,0,0,0.5578978748775606,0,3.8158511136663686,40.07069545590052],[13.69462365591398,2.7268817204301077,11.324731182795698,4.344086021505376,4.425806451612903,0,0,3.109677419354839,0,1.7591397849462365,6.047311827956989,52.567741935483866],[8.240088921822897,0,2.0229714709151536,2.5342719525750277,1.0559466469062615,10.911448684698037,8.02148944053353,0,0,0,0,67.2137828825491]],"volatility_latest":27.049703054356915,"volatility_previous":33.5789790722968,"volatility_mean":30.314341063326857,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"CARLOS ESTUARDO VILLAGRÁN LÓPEZ","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-10-02","country":"Guatemala","region":"Suchitepéquez","name":"Cuyotenango","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.0278366669739114,5.591307099905052,15.850645190811747],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-10-02|GT-M-10-02-2023-FINAL||814","GT-M-10-02|GT-M-10-02-2019-FINAL||474","GT-M-10-02|GT-M-10-02-2015-FINAL||135"],"all_keys":["GT-M-10-02|GT-M-10-02-2023-FINAL||814","GT-M-10-02|GT-M-10-02-2019-FINAL||474","GT-M-10-02|GT-M-10-02-2015-FINAL||135"],"shares":[[0.46372937597935293,0.4434510093096138],[0.4481485388754088,0.39223546787635827],[0.41996888441475244,0.261462432506635]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":77.60420675381481,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[46.37293759793529,44.34510093096138,1.3457461517190525,0,3.041755000460872,0,0,0,0,0,0,4.894460318923403],[39.223546787635826,0,0,44.81485388754088,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,15.961599324823293],[9.984442207376224,0,6.7813672554223485,0,0,26.146243250663495,13.050242518532077,0,0,0,0,44.03770476800585]],"volatility_latest":55.88199289344077,"volatility_previous":74.05395846780048,"volatility_mean":64.96797568062063,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JORGE ARTURO REYES CEBALLOS","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-10-03","country":"Guatemala","region":"Suchitepéquez","name":"San Francisco Zapotitlán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.573949655110638,0.5816771691711118,7.76572668112798],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-10-03|GT-M-10-03-2023-FINAL||815","GT-M-10-03|GT-M-10-03-2019-FINAL||475","GT-M-10-03|GT-M-10-03-2015-FINAL||136"],"all_keys":["GT-M-10-03|GT-M-10-03-2023-FINAL||815","GT-M-10-03|GT-M-10-03-2019-FINAL||475","GT-M-10-03|GT-M-10-03-2015-FINAL||136"],"shares":[[0.47084117172803014,0.35510167517692376],[0.3185651963160446,0.3127484246243335],[0.5210412147505423,0.4433839479392625]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":60.52277194034743,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.9316491982441996,35.51016751769237,5.186777747917226,0,0.7614440562572785,0,0,0,0,0,0,57.609961479888916],[31.274842462433348,1.0857973824527387,31.23606398448861,31.85651963160446,0,0,0,0,0,0.49442559379544354,0,4.0523509452254],[44.33839479392625,0,0,1.8438177874186552,0,1.7136659436008677,52.10412147505423,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":88.74342472616043,"volatility_previous":66.881339750148,"volatility_mean":77.81238223815421,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"LUIS GONZALO MEJIA CASTRO","party":"PPN","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-10-04","country":"Guatemala","region":"Suchitepéquez","name":"San Bernardino","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.7304009089433521,21.630331753554504,1.50763007905865],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-10-04|GT-M-10-04-2023-FINAL||816","GT-M-10-04|GT-M-10-04-2019-FINAL||476","GT-M-10-04|GT-M-10-04-2015-FINAL||137"],"all_keys":["GT-M-10-04|GT-M-10-04-2023-FINAL||816","GT-M-10-04|GT-M-10-04-2019-FINAL||476","GT-M-10-04|GT-M-10-04-2015-FINAL||137"],"shares":[[0.24833630904074014,0.24103229995130662],[0.37099526066350713,0.15469194312796208],[0.23607280750137893,0.22099650671079243]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":64.60948460330886,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[9.414056159714333,24.10322999513066,1.2173348482389224,0,14.218471027430612,0,0,0,0,0,0,51.04690796948547],[15.469194312796208,3.146919431279621,4.37914691943128,9.118483412322275,4.947867298578199,0,0,1.8767772511848342,0,0.2843601895734597,2.5213270142180093,58.255924170616126],[8.714837286265858,0,1.69148740577312,15.517558374701231,0,23.607280750137893,17.20904578047435,0,0,0,0,33.259790402647546]],"volatility_latest":30.226914292703462,"volatility_previous":47.215401492991205,"volatility_mean":38.72115789284733,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"HERBERTH JUAN PABLO HURTADO PAUL","party":"PPN","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-10-05","country":"Guatemala","region":"Suchitepéquez","name":"San José El Ídolo","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.77692471742376,3.784536800557234,39.03944191038369],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-10-05|GT-M-10-05-2023-FINAL||817","GT-M-10-05|GT-M-10-05-2019-FINAL||477","GT-M-10-05|GT-M-10-05-2015-FINAL||138"],"all_keys":["GT-M-10-05|GT-M-10-05-2023-FINAL||817","GT-M-10-05|GT-M-10-05-2019-FINAL||477","GT-M-10-05|GT-M-10-05-2015-FINAL||138"],"shares":[[0.4800597142247814,0.3422904670505438],[0.349198978407244,0.3113536104016717],[0.584920847866917,0.19452642876308024]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":33.472699691701024,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.4098955001066327,48.00597142247814,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,49.584133077415224],[34.9198978407244,0,0,31.13536104016717,1.9967494775946135,0,0,0,0,0,21.267703738100767,10.680287903413047],[5.929702173329756,0,0,0,0,58.492084786691706,19.452642876308023,0,0,0,0,16.125570163670513]],"volatility_latest":86.90981659648031,"volatility_previous":83.3900099232572,"volatility_mean":85.14991325986875,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"HERNESTO CAYETANO YAX PACHECO","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-10-06","country":"Guatemala","region":"Suchitepéquez","name":"Santo Domingo Suchitepéquez","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.565217391304344,7.936016511867905,3.9018427980443775],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-10-06|GT-M-10-06-2023-FINAL||818","GT-M-10-06|GT-M-10-06-2019-FINAL||478","GT-M-10-06|GT-M-10-06-2015-FINAL||139"],"all_keys":["GT-M-10-06|GT-M-10-06-2023-FINAL||818","GT-M-10-06|GT-M-10-06-2019-FINAL||478","GT-M-10-06|GT-M-10-06-2015-FINAL||139"],"shares":[[0.32312252964426874,0.2774703557312253],[0.30361197110423116,0.2242518059855521],[0.1944339977435126,0.15541556976306883]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":72.44940165926292,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[6.383399209486166,27.74703557312253,5.503952569169961,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,60.36561264822135],[15.6656346749226,0,6.924664602683179,30.361197110423117,0,0,0,0,0,0.7017543859649122,0.9184726522187823,45.42827657378741],[14.027830011282438,0,15.541556976306882,2.0308386611508085,0,10.77472734110568,19.44339977435126,0,0,0,0,38.181647235802934]],"volatility_latest":42.68437164755647,"volatility_previous":38.835019489080636,"volatility_mean":40.75969556831855,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MIGUEL ANGEL IXCAL PEREZ","party":"MLP","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-10-07","country":"Guatemala","region":"Suchitepéquez","name":"San Lorenzo","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.705501618122973,4.509545753785382,11.528291909042835],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-10-07|GT-M-10-07-2023-FINAL||819","GT-M-10-07|GT-M-10-07-2019-FINAL||479","GT-M-10-07|GT-M-10-07-2015-FINAL||140"],"all_keys":["GT-M-10-07|GT-M-10-07-2023-FINAL||819","GT-M-10-07|GT-M-10-07-2019-FINAL||479","GT-M-10-07|GT-M-10-07-2015-FINAL||140"],"shares":[[0.4461165048543689,0.30906148867313915],[0.3652073732718894,0.3201119157340356],[0.37369998237264235,0.258417063282214]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":46.3550305604316,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.598705501618123,30.906148867313917,1.6181229773462784,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,66.87702265372168],[3.3410138248847927,32.01119157340356,1.3989466754443713,22.893350888742592,0,0,0,2.4193548387096775,0,0,0,37.93614219881501],[16.040895469769083,0,4.77701392561255,14.806980433632999,0,37.369998237264234,25.8417063282214,0,0,0,0,1.1634056054997357]],"volatility_latest":29.16005675680858,"volatility_previous":79.2896534605381,"volatility_mean":54.22485510867334,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MANOLO ENRIQUE LAPOYEU GREGORIO","party":"PODEMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-10-08","country":"Guatemala","region":"Suchitepéquez","name":"Samayac","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.175632347702173,14.834507510301744,13.219726310353728],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-10-08|GT-M-10-08-2023-FINAL||820","GT-M-10-08|GT-M-10-08-2019-FINAL||480","GT-M-10-08|GT-M-10-08-2015-FINAL||141"],"all_keys":["GT-M-10-08|GT-M-10-08-2023-FINAL||820","GT-M-10-08|GT-M-10-08-2019-FINAL||480","GT-M-10-08|GT-M-10-08-2015-FINAL||141"],"shares":[[0.22978268614178837,0.21802636266476663],[0.3712614648411538,0.22291638973813638],[0.4177640072295378,0.2855667441260005]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":67.611478536264,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[20.30637691485572,21.197007481296758,0.6768792304951906,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,57.81973637335233],[37.12614648411538,0,0,22.291638973813637,0,0,0,1.1564535424697595,0,0,16.482786122557492,22.94297487704373],[41.77640072295378,0,0,3.3953008004131164,0,28.556674412600053,21.26258714175058,0,0,0,0,5.009036922282468]],"volatility_latest":56.75064820810055,"volatility_previous":54.46951579318903,"volatility_mean":55.610082000644795,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"PABLO HERNANDEZ LOPEZ","party":"ELEFANTE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-10-09","country":"Guatemala","region":"Suchitepéquez","name":"San Pablo Jocopilas","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[26.193331734228835,18.901018030172946,15.969581749049429],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-10-09|GT-M-10-09-2023-FINAL||821","GT-M-10-09|GT-M-10-09-2019-FINAL||481","GT-M-10-09|GT-M-10-09-2015-FINAL||142"],"all_keys":["GT-M-10-09|GT-M-10-09-2023-FINAL||821","GT-M-10-09|GT-M-10-09-2019-FINAL||481","GT-M-10-09|GT-M-10-09-2015-FINAL||142"],"shares":[[0.45538498440873115,0.1934516670664428],[0.462161167668343,0.27315098736661353],[0.44952778118483994,0.2898319636943456]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[11.501559126888942,45.53849844087311,0.37179179659390743,0,7.4838090669225235,0,0,0,0,0,0,35.10434156872152],[27.31509873666135,7.55550104256102,0,46.2161167668343,6.108181037654851,0,0,0,0,0.1471850852446952,0,12.657917331043787],[28.983196369434562,0,1.5086471237581258,16.619649208880166,0,44.95277811848399,7.236600024530848,0,0,0,0,0.6991291549123022]],"volatility_latest":62.1768414618514,"volatility_previous":55.36612289954618,"volatility_mean":58.77148218069879,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MELVIN PAOLO MACARIO TAQUIEJ","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-08-20","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-10-10","country":"Guatemala","region":"Suchitepéquez","name":"San Antonio Suchitepéquez","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.99858191010543,34.588324776573494,31.198134558672244],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-10-10|GT-M-10-10-2023-FINAL||822","GT-M-10-10|GT-M-10-10-2019-FINAL||482","GT-M-10-10|GT-M-10-10-2015-FINAL||143"],"all_keys":["GT-M-10-10|GT-M-10-10-2023-FINAL||822","GT-M-10-10|GT-M-10-10-2019-FINAL||482","GT-M-10-10|GT-M-10-10-2015-FINAL||143"],"shares":[[0.3833158641099944,0.21333004500894012],[0.5218355834442543,0.17595233567851934],[0.45031204992798846,0.13833070434126601]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[9.353227695912201,38.33158641099944,1.171465565077995,0,8.311239903816512,0,0,0,0,0,0,42.83248042419385],[52.18355834442543,0,0,17.595233567851935,6.712302719148127,0,0,0.6084806997528047,0,0,1.1979463776383343,21.702478291183372],[13.833070434126602,0,0,13.36671010218778,1.4059392359920444,45.03120499279885,10.390233865989988,0,0,0,0,15.972841368904739]],"volatility_latest":62.231991293756295,"volatility_previous":55.42143885878883,"volatility_mean":58.82671507627256,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"EDGAR MAURICIO OVALLE SIGUAN","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-10-11","country":"Guatemala","region":"Suchitepéquez","name":"San Miguel Panán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.9175962576466361,9.219858156028366,6.283542039355993],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-10-11|GT-M-10-11-2023-FINAL||823","GT-M-10-11|GT-M-10-11-2019-FINAL||483","GT-M-10-11|GT-M-10-11-2015-FINAL||144"],"all_keys":["GT-M-10-11|GT-M-10-11-2023-FINAL||823","GT-M-10-11|GT-M-10-11-2019-FINAL||483","GT-M-10-11|GT-M-10-11-2015-FINAL||144"],"shares":[[0.36182079884850665,0.3526448362720403],[0.38067855089131686,0.28847996933103315],[0.3076923076923077,0.24485688729874777]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":80.27565297333955,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.9175962576466354,27.22202231018352,35.26448362720403,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,36.595897804965816],[28.847996933103317,25.934445083381252,0,38.06785508913168,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.42169829403871956,6.7280046003450265],[19.901610017889087,0,4.0921288014311274,24.485688729874777,0,30.76923076923077,16.14490161001789,0,0,0,0,4.606440071556351]],"volatility_latest":66.41995405862708,"volatility_previous":51.006261180679786,"volatility_mean":58.713107619653435,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"EDWIN ELSIAS MAS AJCAC","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-10-12","country":"Guatemala","region":"Suchitepéquez","name":"San Gabriel","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.5488482922954745,0.2181818181818187,10.642351660315732],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-10-12|GT-M-10-12-2023-FINAL||824","GT-M-10-12|GT-M-10-12-2019-FINAL||484","GT-M-10-12|GT-M-10-12-2015-FINAL||145"],"all_keys":["GT-M-10-12|GT-M-10-12-2023-FINAL||824","GT-M-10-12|GT-M-10-12-2019-FINAL||484","GT-M-10-12|GT-M-10-12-2015-FINAL||145"],"shares":[[0.2192216044479746,0.20373312152501985],[0.2613333333333333,0.25915151515151513],[0.43630919978225363,0.32988568317909633]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":89.705006565683,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[5.957108816521049,20.373312152501985,0,0,1.1318506751389992,0,0,0,0.8141382049245433,0,0,71.72359015091342],[25.915151515151514,0,0,17.527272727272727,0,0,0,23.70909090909091,0,4.048484848484849,0,28.8],[43.630919978225364,0,0,4.409363091997823,0,32.98856831790963,0,0,0,0,0,18.971148611867175]],"volatility_latest":65.24289118347895,"volatility_previous":50.70433678098349,"volatility_mean":57.973613982231214,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"AURELIO CEBALLOS SACAYON","party":"CAMBIO","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-10-13","country":"Guatemala","region":"Suchitepéquez","name":"Chicacao","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.428414096916299,5.850153951419774,3.069136334266638],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-10-13|GT-M-10-13-2023-FINAL||825","GT-M-10-13|GT-M-10-13-2019-FINAL||485","GT-M-10-13|GT-M-10-13-2015-FINAL||146"],"all_keys":["GT-M-10-13|GT-M-10-13-2023-FINAL||825","GT-M-10-13|GT-M-10-13-2019-FINAL||485","GT-M-10-13|GT-M-10-13-2015-FINAL||146"],"shares":[[0.1883259911894273,0.16404185022026432],[0.24774774774774774,0.18924620823354998],[0.3031983631272884,0.272506999784622]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":82.40495861498812,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.273127753303965,14.895374449339206,18.83259911894273,0,9.922907488986784,0,0,0,0.5892070484581498,0,0,51.486784140969164],[24.774774774774773,18.924620823355,12.823583076747633,18.183373246664384,0,0,0,0.4789599726308587,0,1.0548523206751055,0.7298437678184514,23.02999201733379],[27.2506999784622,0,3.914494938617273,6.127503769114797,0.7269007107473616,30.31983631272884,1.3676502261468877,0,0,0,0,30.29291406418264]],"volatility_latest":44.977922703275404,"volatility_previous":42.153234500159364,"volatility_mean":43.565578601717384,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"DOMINGO YOJCOM GONZALEZ","party":"TODOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-10-14","country":"Guatemala","region":"Suchitepéquez","name":"Patulul","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.830601092896174,5.883382945193485,12.112042209807573],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-10-14|GT-M-10-14-2023-FINAL||826","GT-M-10-14|GT-M-10-14-2019-FINAL||486","GT-M-10-14|GT-M-10-14-2015-FINAL||147"],"all_keys":["GT-M-10-14|GT-M-10-14-2023-FINAL||826","GT-M-10-14|GT-M-10-14-2019-FINAL||486","GT-M-10-14|GT-M-10-14-2015-FINAL||147"],"shares":[[0.26963309914129585,0.2013270882123341],[0.26230082297320956,0.20346699352127473],[0.3286778398510242,0.20755741775294848]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":64.62710119861747,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[13.739266198282591,26.963309914129585,0.2576112412177986,0,20.13270882123341,0,0,0,0,0,0,38.90710382513661],[20.346699352127473,7.065312554718964,0,2.889161267728944,0,0,0,0,0,1.9523726142531956,0.6040973559796883,67.14235685519174],[32.86778398510242,0,3.258845437616387,5.361576660459342,0,20.755741775294847,0.31036623215394166,0,0,0,0,37.445685909373054]],"volatility_latest":40.288317421861834,"volatility_previous":39.31845347077053,"volatility_mean":39.803385446316184,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"CARLOS GUSTAVO PEREZ CRISPIN","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-10-15","country":"Guatemala","region":"Suchitepéquez","name":"Santa Bárbara","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.687058823529412,7.251992914083264,11.52826855123675],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-10-15|GT-M-10-15-2023-FINAL||827","GT-M-10-15|GT-M-10-15-2019-FINAL||487","GT-M-10-15|GT-M-10-15-2015-FINAL||148"],"all_keys":["GT-M-10-15|GT-M-10-15-2023-FINAL||827","GT-M-10-15|GT-M-10-15-2019-FINAL||487","GT-M-10-15|GT-M-10-15-2015-FINAL||148"],"shares":[[0.24385882352941177,0.15698823529411765],[0.3281665190434013,0.2556465899025686],[0.3355786219081272,0.2202959363957597]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":57.29669988266849,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[13.910588235294117,24.385882352941177,9.054117647058824,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.64941176470588],[25.564658990256863,2.4579273693534103,0,32.81665190434013,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,39.1607617360496],[33.55786219081272,0,4.571554770318021,5.3886925795053005,0,21.179328621908127,22.02959363957597,0,0,0,0,13.272968197879859]],"volatility_latest":44.47072265930287,"volatility_previous":55.773680232357975,"volatility_mean":50.12220144583043,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"WALTER ANTONIO JEREZ RUIZ","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-10-16","country":"Guatemala","region":"Suchitepéquez","name":"San Juan Bautista","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.220071882775777,1.2950094756790875,14.088983050847457],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-10-16|GT-M-10-16-2023-FINAL||828","GT-M-10-16|GT-M-10-16-2019-FINAL||488","GT-M-10-16|GT-M-10-16-2015-FINAL||149"],"all_keys":["GT-M-10-16|GT-M-10-16-2023-FINAL||828","GT-M-10-16|GT-M-10-16-2019-FINAL||488","GT-M-10-16|GT-M-10-16-2015-FINAL||149"],"shares":[[0.4036494332319602,0.2814487144042024],[0.4472520530638029,0.434301958307012],[0.4173728813559322,0.2764830508474576]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":54.35277861273031,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[6.386508155930329,40.364943323196016,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,53.248548520873655],[43.4301958307012,11.84459886291851,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,44.72520530638029],[10.94632768361582,0,27.64830508474576,7.203389830508475,0,41.73728813559322,0,0,0,0,0,12.464689265536723]],"volatility_latest":37.04368767477087,"volatility_previous":76.58898305084746,"volatility_mean":56.81633536280917,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ELMER ROLANDO MAYORGA CORZO","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-10-17","country":"Guatemala","region":"Suchitepéquez","name":"Santo Tomás La Unión","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.816026165167617,11.16590348714336,13.518549889886497],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-10-17|GT-M-10-17-2023-FINAL||829","GT-M-10-17|GT-M-10-17-2019-FINAL||489","GT-M-10-17|GT-M-10-17-2015-FINAL||150"],"all_keys":["GT-M-10-17|GT-M-10-17-2023-FINAL||829","GT-M-10-17|GT-M-10-17-2019-FINAL||489","GT-M-10-17|GT-M-10-17-2015-FINAL||150"],"shares":[[0.41995094031071134,0.27179067865903517],[0.2719267347657626,0.16026769989432899],[0.42537692698627816,0.29019142808741316]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":32.04379132883886,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[22.730989370400653,27.179067865903516,0,0,41.99509403107113,0,0,0,0,0,0,8.094848732624694],[16.0267699894329,0,13.807678760126805,0,2.3247622402254313,0,0,12.169778090877069,0,0,27.19267347657626,28.478337442761536],[42.537692698627815,0,0,13.16279857699475,0,29.019142808741318,15.280365915636118,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":73.55361903771697,"volatility_previous":83.97323001056711,"volatility_mean":78.76342452414204,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JUAN PABLO CHAVEZ VELASQUEZ","party":"VIVA","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-10-18","country":"Guatemala","region":"Suchitepéquez","name":"Zunilito","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.967925504397307,23.927848334253632,50.48264530704458],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-10-18|GT-M-10-18-2023-FINAL||830","GT-M-10-18|GT-M-10-18-2019-FINAL||490","GT-M-10-18|GT-M-10-18-2015-FINAL||151"],"all_keys":["GT-M-10-18|GT-M-10-18-2023-FINAL||830","GT-M-10-18|GT-M-10-18-2019-FINAL||490","GT-M-10-18|GT-M-10-18-2015-FINAL||151"],"shares":[[0.5330229349887912,0.3933436799448181],[0.605190502484815,0.36591201914227867],[0.7124666255904704,0.20764017252002465]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.9311950336264874,53.302293498879116,0.9484393861010519,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,44.818072081393346],[60.5190502484815,2.8897478372906313,0,36.59120191422787,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[1.0474430067775724,0,0,0,0,6.941877182172931,71.24666255904704,0,0,0,0,20.764017252002464]],"volatility_latest":96.17905712908288,"volatility_previous":98.95255699322243,"volatility_mean":97.56580706115265,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"RUDI EDUARDO EDELMAN COP","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-10-19","country":"Guatemala","region":"Suchitepéquez","name":"Pueblo Nuevo","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.23055458667597,27.036426871682224,3.2324364723467838],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-10-19|GT-M-10-19-2023-FINAL||831","GT-M-10-19|GT-M-10-19-2019-FINAL||491","GT-M-10-19|GT-M-10-19-2015-FINAL||152"],"all_keys":["GT-M-10-19|GT-M-10-19-2023-FINAL||831","GT-M-10-19|GT-M-10-19-2019-FINAL||491","GT-M-10-19|GT-M-10-19-2015-FINAL||152"],"shares":[[0.538367631670736,0.36606208580397626],[0.5551894563426688,0.28482518762584663],[0.4170403587443946,0.38471599402092677]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":6.137477696275351,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.6627136379490757,53.8367631670736,6.627136379490757,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,38.87338681548657],[28.48251876258466,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.7755811825004577,0,69.74190005491488],[41.70403587443946,0,1.3079222720478325,0,0,38.47159940209268,18.51644245142003,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":60.463899546564356,"volatility_previous":71.51748123741534,"volatility_mean":65.99069039198984,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"DIEGO LUX LUX","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-10-20","country":"Guatemala","region":"Suchitepéquez","name":"Río Bravo","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.35974920341247696,21.247038552659916,0.6598552575564085],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-10-20|GT-M-10-20-2023-FINAL||832","GT-M-10-20|GT-M-10-20-2019-FINAL||492","GT-M-10-20|GT-M-10-20-2015-FINAL||153"],"all_keys":["GT-M-10-20|GT-M-10-20-2023-FINAL||832","GT-M-10-20|GT-M-10-20-2019-FINAL||492","GT-M-10-20|GT-M-10-20-2015-FINAL||153"],"shares":[[0.41494500976462123,0.41134751773049644],[0.42989446478569887,0.21742407925909973],[0.34206045125585355,0.33546189868028947]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":66.72026693199449,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.30239490183986,41.49450097646212,41.13475177304964,0,0.8531195395210196,0,0,0,0,0,0,14.215232809127352],[42.98944647856989,0,16.777945293990953,6.601335343527891,0.36614258022830065,0,0,0,0,0,0.2369157872065475,33.02821451647642],[8.84418901660281,0,0,19.550872711792252,0,34.206045125585355,33.54618986802895,0,0,0,0,3.8527032779906345]],"volatility_latest":66.33828441481353,"volatility_previous":80.70177236187867,"volatility_mean":73.5200283883461,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JUAN FRANCISCO LOPEZ DIAZ","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-10-21","country":"Guatemala","region":"Suchitepéquez","name":"San José La Máquina","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.258009293225726,2.0328849028400597,14.352178203862962],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-10-21|GT-M-10-21-2023-FINAL||833","GT-M-10-21|GT-M-10-21-2019-FINAL||493","GT-M-10-21|GT-M-10-21-2015-FINAL||154"],"all_keys":["GT-M-10-21|GT-M-10-21-2023-FINAL||833","GT-M-10-21|GT-M-10-21-2019-FINAL||493","GT-M-10-21|GT-M-10-21-2015-FINAL||154"],"shares":[[0.2907801418439716,0.23820004891171437],[0.25605381165919283,0.23572496263079223],[0.4034964049062456,0.25997462286761597]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":74.00055566413126,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[3.2526290046466126,8.853020298361457,23.820004891171436,0,4.658840792369773,0,0,0,9.977989728539985,0,0,49.43751528491074],[12.630792227204783,3.109118086696562,5.695067264573991,23.572496263079223,0,0,0,3.0493273542600896,0,0.5530642750373692,25.605381165919283,25.784753363228702],[7.923304666572677,0,17.270548428027634,1.621316791202594,0.9304948540814888,40.34964049062456,1.2970534329620753,0,0,0,0,30.607641336528975]],"volatility_latest":62.158432280854136,"volatility_previous":58.97555791442204,"volatility_mean":60.566995097638085,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"CANDIDO VILLAGRAN PASCUAL AVALOS","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-11-01","country":"Guatemala","region":"Retalhuleu","name":"Retalhuleu","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.736197806193566,4.713137731265181,26.619612656846698],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-11-01|GT-M-11-01-2023-FINAL||834","GT-M-11-01|GT-M-11-01-2019-FINAL||494","GT-M-11-01|GT-M-11-01-2015-FINAL||155"],"all_keys":["GT-M-11-01|GT-M-11-01-2023-FINAL||834","GT-M-11-01|GT-M-11-01-2019-FINAL||494","GT-M-11-01|GT-M-11-01-2015-FINAL||155"],"shares":[[0.3972486515968729,0.36988667353493726],[0.309362735937208,0.26223135862455615],[0.45243453355155483,0.18623840698308783]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":71.41189365609819,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.7726198412217442,9.769104902733167,0.1605963274953033,0,1.3817344403369494,0,0,0,0,0,1.2847706199624265,85.6311738682504],[13.070454120725097,7.766772565875537,5.109325359745842,0.7437862081853859,0,0,0,1.7716314707531302,0,0,2.717249112315455,68.82078116239956],[14.286688488816148,0,18.623840698308783,2.161756683033279,1.1388434260774687,45.24345335515548,2.3799781778505182,0,0,0,0,16.16543917075832]],"volatility_latest":20.19445948304543,"volatility_previous":64.91099514058536,"volatility_mean":42.552727311815396,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"PABLO JOSE VILLATORO FLORES","party":"BIEN","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-11-02","country":"Guatemala","region":"Retalhuleu","name":"San Sebastián","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.89199727068915,1.4388489208633075,15.028171750534291],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-11-02|GT-M-11-02-2023-FINAL||835","GT-M-11-02|GT-M-11-02-2019-FINAL||495","GT-M-11-02|GT-M-11-02-2015-FINAL||156"],"all_keys":["GT-M-11-02|GT-M-11-02-2023-FINAL||835","GT-M-11-02|GT-M-11-02-2019-FINAL||495","GT-M-11-02|GT-M-11-02-2015-FINAL||156"],"shares":[[0.3163076323228385,0.19738765961594698],[0.2462712756623969,0.2318827864537638],[0.4420050514863027,0.2917233339809598]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":54.651648931370445,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[13.510088702602593,15.839750463008091,1.4913734282093771,0,0.8187932547031874,0,0,0,0,0,3.7235598011502096,64.61643435032654],[1.2282856641516056,0.7632918055799263,16.371293209334972,0,0.43867345148271625,0,0,1.6932795227232849,11.616072995262327,23.188278645376382,0.8422530268468152,43.85857167924197],[2.4771711676704875,0,44.20050514863027,0,1.4668739071303671,29.17233339809598,5.9452108024091705,0,0,0,0,16.737905576063728]],"volatility_latest":51.37755094448759,"volatility_previous":65.22384209896698,"volatility_mean":58.30069652172729,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"CESAR AUGUSTO DEL VAL GUERRERO","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-11-03","country":"Guatemala","region":"Retalhuleu","name":"Santa Cruz Muluá","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.653374829799649,11.574227831285288,1.4638609332113433],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-11-03|GT-M-11-03-2023-FINAL||836","GT-M-11-03|GT-M-11-03-2019-FINAL||496","GT-M-11-03|GT-M-11-03-2015-FINAL||157"],"all_keys":["GT-M-11-03|GT-M-11-03-2023-FINAL||836","GT-M-11-03|GT-M-11-03-2019-FINAL||496","GT-M-11-03|GT-M-11-03-2015-FINAL||157"],"shares":[[0.2674576930558257,0.2509239447578292],[0.38243108601793424,0.26668880770508135],[0.3537053979871912,0.3390667886550778]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":76.94660329706745,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[24.45049601244894,26.74576930558257,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,48.80373468196849],[9.697774825639323,13.517103952175358,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.2288276320159415,0,0,75.55629359016937],[33.90667886550778,0,0,0,0,25.34309240622141,35.37053979871912,0,0,0,0,5.379688929551693]],"volatility_latest":27.98138654021683,"volatility_previous":84.92253624480898,"volatility_mean":56.45196139251291,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ELIO FRANCISCO PUAC CASTILLO","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-11-04","country":"Guatemala","region":"Retalhuleu","name":"San Martín Zapotitlán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.606355868685355,15.525192143467123,7.311869666408072],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-11-04|GT-M-11-04-2023-FINAL||837","GT-M-11-04|GT-M-11-04-2019-FINAL||497","GT-M-11-04|GT-M-11-04-2015-FINAL||158"],"all_keys":["GT-M-11-04|GT-M-11-04-2023-FINAL||837","GT-M-11-04|GT-M-11-04-2019-FINAL||497","GT-M-11-04|GT-M-11-04-2015-FINAL||158"],"shares":[[0.45750262329485836,0.4014390646080048],[0.40956447480785657,0.2543125533731853],[0.3669511249030256,0.2938324282389449]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":56.23720934553922,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[10.133413281367112,45.750262329485835,0.4646979463348823,0,0.299805126667666,0,0,0,0,0,1.6039574276720132,41.7478638884725],[25.431255337318532,0,40.956447480785656,0,0,0,0,0,1.9982920580700256,0,0,31.614005123825788],[23.700543056633048,0,7.234290147401087,0,0,29.38324282389449,36.69511249030256,0,0,0,0,2.986811481768813]],"volatility_latest":57.787883648472224,"volatility_previous":66.07835531419705,"volatility_mean":61.93311948133464,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"BLANCA ESTELA MENDOZA MÉNDEZ","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-08-20","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-11-05","country":"Guatemala","region":"Retalhuleu","name":"San Felipe","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":2,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.335707019328584,6.788268214322727,2.060221870047542],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-11-05|GT-M-11-05-2023-FINAL||838","GT-M-11-05|GT-M-11-05-2019-FINAL||498","GT-M-11-05|GT-M-11-05-2015-FINAL||159"],"all_keys":["GT-M-11-05|GT-M-11-05-2023-FINAL||838","GT-M-11-05|GT-M-11-05-2019-FINAL||498","GT-M-11-05|GT-M-11-05-2015-FINAL||159"],"shares":[[0.32492370295015255,0.22156663275686672],[0.33309151207379,0.2652088299305628],[0.2928684627575277,0.2722662440570523]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":57.78036568550638,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.0681586978636826,20.752797558494404,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.7497456765005086,76.4292980671414],[10.850865374650223,4.1040522333920615,0,2.0623898849621725,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,82.98269250699555],[25.620707871104067,0,0,0,0,27.22662440570523,17.86582144743793,0,0,0,0,29.286846275752772]],"volatility_latest":18.398491001602856,"volatility_previous":59.86228834959701,"volatility_mean":39.13038967559993,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"WILLIAM INGLEBERTO VALIENTE VILLATORO","party":"BIEN","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":2,"Final source with documented extraction/source reconciliation limits":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-11-06","country":"Guatemala","region":"Retalhuleu","name":"San Andrés Villa Seca","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.5763688760806893,5.936557123053085,4.890877688805148],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-11-06|GT-M-11-06-2023-FINAL||839","GT-M-11-06|GT-M-11-06-2019-FINAL||499","GT-M-11-06|GT-M-11-06-2015-FINAL||160"],"all_keys":["GT-M-11-06|GT-M-11-06-2023-FINAL||839","GT-M-11-06|GT-M-11-06-2019-FINAL||499","GT-M-11-06|GT-M-11-06-2015-FINAL||160"],"shares":[[0.27801793147614473,0.2722542427153378],[0.2264535594878904,0.16708798825735954],[0.25639817867797143,0.20748940178991993]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":86.92061884277574,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[27.80179314761447,27.225424271533782,0,0,2.5696445725264168,0,0,0,0,0,1.5129682997118155,40.890169708613506],[22.64535594878904,13.75682948707494,8.56234200440349,0.856234200440349,0,0,0,0,16.708798825735954,0,0,37.470439533556224],[12.592243680326582,0,20.748940178991994,0,0,25.63981786779714,19.696969696969695,0,0,0,0,21.322028575914587]],"volatility_latest":26.127375030579792,"volatility_previous":57.52338573935534,"volatility_mean":41.825380384967566,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MARCO TULIO DE LEON SOLARES","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-11-07","country":"Guatemala","region":"Retalhuleu","name":"Champerico","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.84770211338477,5.444785276073619,11.2678494158373],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-11-07|GT-M-11-07-2023-FINAL||840","GT-M-11-07|GT-M-11-07-2019-FINAL||500","GT-M-11-07|GT-M-11-07-2015-FINAL||161"],"all_keys":["GT-M-11-07|GT-M-11-07-2023-FINAL||840","GT-M-11-07|GT-M-11-07-2019-FINAL||500","GT-M-11-07|GT-M-11-07-2015-FINAL||161"],"shares":[[0.2479872525997987,0.159510231465951],[0.2133819018404908,0.1589340490797546],[0.3286023366508005,0.21592384249242752]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":59.65579103781662,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[7.681985910768199,11.598456893659845,0.2767527675276753,0,24.79872525997987,0,0,0.15934250251593424,0,0,0,55.48473666554847],[21.33819018404908,5.655674846625767,13.755751533742332,1.2174079754601228,1.8500766871165644,0,0,2.5690184049079754,1.1598926380368098,0,0,52.45398773006135],[6.914755517092168,0,15.421895283427087,0,1.350064906966681,21.592384249242752,32.86023366508005,0,0,0,0,21.860666378191258]],"volatility_latest":31.922179555384506,"volatility_previous":56.11876166400756,"volatility_mean":44.020470609696034,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"RAMIRO VILLATORO IZARA","party":"VIVA","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-11-08","country":"Guatemala","region":"Retalhuleu","name":"Nuevo San Carlos","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[38.90948107686305,6.642932888956217,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-11-08|GT-M-11-08-2023-FINAL||841","GT-M-11-08|GT-M-11-08-2019-FINAL||501","GT-M-11-08|GT-M-11-08-2015-FINAL||162"],"all_keys":["GT-M-11-08|GT-M-11-08-2023-FINAL||841","GT-M-11-08|GT-M-11-08-2019-FINAL||501","GT-M-11-08|GT-M-11-08-2015-FINAL||162"],"shares":[[0.5785212641435817,0.18942645337495123],[0.41986062717770034,0.35343129828813813],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[6.954740538431525,57.852126414358175,0.3316426063207179,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,34.86149044088958],[6.756552037570065,1.2119375852143615,35.343129828813815,0,0.2575367368580518,0,0,3.014694743220724,0,0,0.3560066656567187,53.06014240266626],null],"volatility_latest":56.838377330005265,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JUAN CARLOS ESCOBAR MALDONADO","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":2,"Final source with documented extraction/source reconciliation limits":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-11-09","country":"Guatemala","region":"Retalhuleu","name":"El Asintal","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":2,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.973977695167285,10.663375009954606,0.6783025891306131],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-11-09|GT-M-11-09-2023-FINAL||842","GT-M-11-09|GT-M-11-09-2019-FINAL||502","GT-M-11-09|GT-M-11-09-2015-FINAL||163"],"all_keys":["GT-M-11-09|GT-M-11-09-2023-FINAL||842","GT-M-11-09|GT-M-11-09-2019-FINAL||502","GT-M-11-09|GT-M-11-09-2015-FINAL||163"],"shares":[[0.21584098323344209,0.1861012062817692],[0.31806960261208883,0.2114358525125428],[0.23178095789560757,0.22499793200430143]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":74.74385310500094,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[18.610120628176922,21.584098323344207,0.18208026705105834,0,3.0650178286928154,0,0,0,0,0,0,56.558682952735005],[31.806960261208886,1.4812455204268535,4.005733853627459,3.4482758620689653,0,0,0,0.8919327864935892,2.0466671975790396,0,1.2423349526160707,55.07684956597913],[9.851931507982464,0,8.793117710315162,0,22.499793200430144,23.178095789560757,0,0,0,0,0,35.67706179171147]],"volatility_latest":24.649704018366037,"volatility_previous":50.4652728466786,"volatility_mean":37.55748843252232,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"HUGO RANFERI ESCOBAR BARRIOS","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":2,"Final source with documented extraction/source reconciliation limits":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-01","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"San Marcos","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.09604519774011,25.195609015531943,9.545706371191137],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-01|GT-M-12-01-2023-FINAL||843","GT-M-12-01|GT-M-12-01-2019-FINAL||503","GT-M-12-01|GT-M-12-01-2015-FINAL||164"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-01|GT-M-12-01-2023-FINAL||843","GT-M-12-01|GT-M-12-01-2019-FINAL||503","GT-M-12-01|GT-M-12-01-2015-FINAL||164"],"shares":[[0.36960451977401126,0.27864406779661016],[0.3903421698003037,0.13838607964498423],[0.3261495844875346,0.23069252077562324]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":30.145597697886185,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.4858757062146895,0,36.96045197740113,0,1.2485875706214689,0,0,2.231638418079096,0,2.3559322033898304,3.7062146892655368,49.011299435028256],[13.838607964498424,0,4.005605512086886,0.39705710615438516,1.8217914282377672,0,0,9.850519677683055,0,2.2538829849351862,1.8976994044143407,65.93483592198996],[23.069252077562325,0,4.7368421052631575,0,11.390581717451523,32.61495844875346,18.110803324099724,0,0,0,0,10.077562326869808]],"volatility_latest":34.865410968620075,"volatility_previous":70.25643276830712,"volatility_mean":52.560921868463595,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"OTTO FRANCISCO CASTILLO BAUTISTA","party":"TODOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-02","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"San Pedro Sacatepéquez","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.049152397989609,13.746653635320614,4.098329608726942],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-02|GT-M-12-02-2023-FINAL||844","GT-M-12-02|GT-M-12-02-2019-FINAL||504","GT-M-12-02|GT-M-12-02-2015-FINAL||165"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-02|GT-M-12-02-2023-FINAL||844","GT-M-12-02|GT-M-12-02-2019-FINAL||504","GT-M-12-02|GT-M-12-02-2015-FINAL||165"],"shares":[[0.1902632251469461,0.11977170116705001],[0.2894658564568903,0.1519993201036842],[0.27120184841483275,0.23021855232756333]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":56.183397548686784,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.733537780049408,11.977170116705,8.829542550472784,0,19.02632251469461,0,0,0.8135275577136042,0,0,5.175057500638896,52.44484197972571],[15.19993201036842,28.946585645689034,1.1473250329324778,0.3739429736965113,3.5269621382739134,0,0,0.9178600263459822,0,0.505672884885055,11.239535970764459,38.14218331704415],[12.56013029809477,0,3.4127495170637476,2.1135563046854284,1.5605469489792054,13.954016893299496,23.021855232756334,0,0,0,0,43.37714480512101]],"volatility_latest":37.48423655664256,"volatility_previous":46.215871429252886,"volatility_mean":41.85005399294772,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"LUIS AROLDO RIVERA JOACHIN","party":"VIVA","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-03","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"San Antonio Sacatepéquez","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.86219602063375,2.0573429634493294,15.191596965570898],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-03|GT-M-12-03-2023-FINAL||845","GT-M-12-03|GT-M-12-03-2019-FINAL||505","GT-M-12-03|GT-M-12-03-2015-FINAL||166"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-03|GT-M-12-03-2023-FINAL||845","GT-M-12-03|GT-M-12-03-2019-FINAL||505","GT-M-12-03|GT-M-12-03-2015-FINAL||166"],"shares":[[0.3686440677966102,0.21002210759027268],[0.44998905668636463,0.4294156270518713],[0.3991441353822214,0.24722816572651238]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":41.731599010139306,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.9027266028002948,36.86440677966102,4.0899042004421515,0,1.1238025055268976,0,0,0,0,1.952837140751658,0,55.066322770817976],[42.94156270518713,0,0,44.99890566863646,0,0,0,0,0,0,12.059531626176407,0],[24.722816572651237,0,2.5286909161641704,2.1007586072748494,0,8.81151526940284,39.914413538222135,0,0,0,0,21.92180509628477]],"volatility_latest":99.0972733971997,"volatility_previous":73.17642482007392,"volatility_mean":86.13684910863681,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"OSCAR JONATAN PEREZ CARDONA","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-04","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"Comitancillo","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.6888049067591844,13.756724655907217,7.910958904109592],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-04|GT-M-12-04-2023-FINAL||846","GT-M-12-04|GT-M-12-04-2019-FINAL||506","GT-M-12-04|GT-M-12-04-2015-FINAL||167"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-04|GT-M-12-04-2023-FINAL||846","GT-M-12-04|GT-M-12-04-2019-FINAL||506","GT-M-12-04|GT-M-12-04-2015-FINAL||167"],"shares":[[0.298184746917787,0.27129669785019517],[0.2786976874170335,0.1411304408579613],[0.4289383561643836,0.3498287671232877]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":67.34301884380682,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[29.8184746917787,15.798277677962952,0.34694256861408834,0,0,0,0,0.16727588129607832,0,0,1.994919769531008,51.87410941081717],[27.869768741703346,3.863620484873891,0,0.26549290854467966,12.701739677216516,0,0,0,0,8.900999091734787,4.862712219660448,41.53566687626633],[34.98287671232877,0,2.4200913242009134,0,0,42.89383561643836,10.262557077625571,0,0,0,0,9.440639269406393]],"volatility_latest":24.73602412762542,"volatility_previous":62.689591988890264,"volatility_mean":43.71280805825784,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"WERNER NEFTALI OROZCO SALVADOR","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-05","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"San Miguel Ixtahuacán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.41558441558442,10.687513386164063,7.766243752402918],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-05|GT-M-12-05-2023-FINAL||847","GT-M-12-05|GT-M-12-05-2019-FINAL||507","GT-M-12-05|GT-M-12-05-2015-FINAL||168"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-05|GT-M-12-05-2023-FINAL||847","GT-M-12-05|GT-M-12-05-2019-FINAL||507","GT-M-12-05|GT-M-12-05-2015-FINAL||168"],"shares":[[0.5097402597402598,0.30558441558441557],[0.4969658028128793,0.3900906689512387],[0.3849160579264385,0.30725362040240933]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":18.838854797799186,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.9415584415584416,0.9025974025974026,13.363636363636363,0,0.8506493506493507,0,0,50.97402597402598,0,0,0,32.967532467532465],[2.5630042121796244,3.855215249518098,0,0.22845719997144284,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.14992503748125938,93.20339830084957],[30.725362040240935,0,0,0,0,12.898885044213763,9.489939766756375,0,0,0,0,46.88581314878893]],"volatility_latest":65.18831168831169,"volatility_previous":50.551182639031445,"volatility_mean":57.86974716367156,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JORGE ROLANDO PEREZ DOMINGO","party":"CREO","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-06","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"Concepción Tutuapa","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.4158965996255404,7.48567335243553,5.831418978618128],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-06|GT-M-12-06-2023-FINAL||848","GT-M-12-06|GT-M-12-06-2019-FINAL||508","GT-M-12-06|GT-M-12-06-2015-FINAL||169"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-06|GT-M-12-06-2023-FINAL||848","GT-M-12-06|GT-M-12-06-2019-FINAL||508","GT-M-12-06|GT-M-12-06-2015-FINAL||169"],"shares":[[0.41184997282116326,0.38769100682490787],[0.260458452722063,0.18560171919770774],[0.2294869529363256,0.17117276315014432]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":78.60809068316102,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.947393851543154,0.44694087093072415,0,0,1.0690342453342996,0,0,0,0,0,0,95.53663103219183],[18.560171919770774,8.32378223495702,0,0.7951289398280802,0,0,0,8.29512893982808,0,0,2.6432664756446993,61.38252148997135],[17.117276315014433,0,2.550509512870354,0,0,22.94869529363256,13.571302350238557,0,0,0,0,43.81221652824409]],"volatility_latest":35.223143787554775,"volatility_previous":39.07050715674148,"volatility_mean":37.14682547214812,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"OFELIO JOEL MORALES SIMON","party":"BIEN","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-07","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"Tacaná","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.8445297504798468,3.857643849850632,9.54010566762728],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-07|GT-M-12-07-2023-FINAL||849","GT-M-12-07|GT-M-12-07-2019-FINAL||509","GT-M-12-07|GT-M-12-07-2015-FINAL||170"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-07|GT-M-12-07-2023-FINAL||849","GT-M-12-07|GT-M-12-07-2019-FINAL||509","GT-M-12-07|GT-M-12-07-2015-FINAL||170"],"shares":[[0.17229686500319896,0.1638515674984005],[0.252695155214963,0.21411871671645666],[0.2769572526416907,0.18155619596541786]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":86.90989213997086,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[6.928982725527831,16.38515674984005,8.701215611004478,0,5.169545745361484,0,0,11.612284069097889,0,1.164427383237364,3.435700575815739,46.60268714011515],[21.411871671645667,4.058968697233407,2.240550720872841,0.9871411871671646,0.7338615404598,0,0,12.540589686972334,0,0.9806468372515911,3.734251201454734,53.31211845694246],[15.537944284341979,0,7.150576368876081,3.0499519692603267,1.032660902977906,18.155619596541786,2.467579250720461,0,0,0,0,52.60566762728146]],"volatility_latest":23.40631769362574,"volatility_previous":27.894834639876752,"volatility_mean":25.650576166751247,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ELEODORO VELASQUEZ PEREZ","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-08","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"Sibinal","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.179045092838194,5.927927927927929,0.08033741715203924],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-08|GT-M-12-08-2023-FINAL||850","GT-M-12-08|GT-M-12-08-2019-FINAL||510","GT-M-12-08|GT-M-12-08-2015-FINAL||171"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-08|GT-M-12-08-2023-FINAL||850","GT-M-12-08|GT-M-12-08-2019-FINAL||510","GT-M-12-08|GT-M-12-08-2015-FINAL||171"],"shares":[[0.3736737400530504,0.2718832891246684],[0.23657657657657657,0.1772972972972973],[0.14842337818839124,0.14762000401687086]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":60.5308041210175,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[15.666445623342176,0,0,0,0,0,0,2.354111405835544,0,0,27.188328912466844,54.79111405835544],[12.864864864864865,2.3783783783783785,0,0.36036036036036034,0.46846846846846846,0,0,7.927927927927928,0,0,0,76.00000000000001],[14.842337818839125,0,0,8.274753966659972,1.1849769029925687,4.197630046194015,2.008435428800964,0,0,0,0,69.49186583651336]],"volatility_latest":29.98990967094416,"volatility_previous":16.81444046979296,"volatility_mean":23.40217507036856,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"HILARIO FELIX GONZALEZ MORALES","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-09","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"Tajumulco","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.506711409395972,25.900065459306127,3.4380833851897954],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-09|GT-M-12-09-2023-FINAL||851","GT-M-12-09|GT-M-12-09-2019-FINAL||511","GT-M-12-09|GT-M-12-09-2015-FINAL||172"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-09|GT-M-12-09-2023-FINAL||851","GT-M-12-09|GT-M-12-09-2019-FINAL||511","GT-M-12-09|GT-M-12-09-2015-FINAL||172"],"shares":[[0.28884228187919464,0.20377516778523488],[0.6003709360680777,0.34137028147501636],[0.26789047915370257,0.2335096453018046]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":33.910725890258,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[20.37751677852349,5.511744966442953,16.677852348993287,0,2.4496644295302015,0,0,7.458053691275167,0,0,0,47.5251677852349],[60.037093606807765,4.069386864499236,0,0.4145756054985817,0.16364826532838753,0,0,0.17455814968361336,0,0.26183722452542,0,34.87890028365699],[23.35096453018046,0,3.0647168637212197,3.4147479775980085,0,16.435905413814563,26.789047915370254,0,0,0,0,26.944617299315496]],"volatility_latest":40.33598965830828,"volatility_previous":49.289842565005465,"volatility_mean":44.812916111656875,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ALFONSO MOISES ROMERO","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-10","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"Tejutla","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.823389021479716,7.760228827260292,9.030309342776796],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-10|GT-M-12-10-2023-FINAL||852","GT-M-12-10|GT-M-12-10-2019-FINAL||512","GT-M-12-10|GT-M-12-10-2015-FINAL||173"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-10|GT-M-12-10-2023-FINAL||852","GT-M-12-10|GT-M-12-10-2019-FINAL||512","GT-M-12-10|GT-M-12-10-2015-FINAL||173"],"shares":[[0.3295942720763723,0.22136038186157517],[0.31538365874891183,0.23778137047630893],[0.3180918654306843,0.22778877200291636]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":51.374335023282015,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[13.60381861575179,22.136038186157517,0,0,1.7183770883054892,0,0,0,0.6443914081145584,0,1.4916467780429594,60.405727923627694],[4.750652903867678,10.322099241387887,31.538365874891184,20.855614973262032,0,0,0,0,0,0,2.089292376570078,30.44397463002114],[13.644412040412456,0,4.614102697635663,9.019893761066555,0,22.778877200291635,31.80918654306843,0,0,0,0,18.13352775752526]],"volatility_latest":52.99162644668034,"volatility_previous":63.48182287990484,"volatility_mean":58.23672466329259,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"BUENAVENTURA FRANCISCO ORTEGA VELASQUEZ","party":"C.C.T.","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-11","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"San Rafael Pie De La Cuesta","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":2,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.481991996442865,13.960919257711684,3.1459254579911544],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-11|GT-M-12-11-2023-FINAL||853","GT-M-12-11|GT-M-12-11-2019-FINAL||513","GT-M-12-11|GT-M-12-11-2015-FINAL||174"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-11|GT-M-12-11-2023-FINAL||853","GT-M-12-11|GT-M-12-11-2019-FINAL||513","GT-M-12-11|GT-M-12-11-2015-FINAL||174"],"shares":[[0.4650955980435749,0.3702756780791463],[0.3733562738109868,0.23374708123386997],[0.232849020846494,0.20138976626658245]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":49.0396823951083,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.9337483325922632,46.509559804357494,0,0,0.43352601156069365,0,0,2.9457536682970207,0,0,0,49.17741218319253],[17.45114907213961,0,0,0.34410716480275283,0,0,0,3.2935971488263487,0,1.3641391176109132,0,77.54700749662037],[15.27479469361971,0,0.5180037902716361,0,0,23.2849020846494,20.138976626658245,0,0,0,0,40.783322804801]],"volatility_latest":46.94308581591818,"volatility_previous":43.94188250157928,"volatility_mean":45.44248415874873,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"OVER LEONEL REYNA ESCOBAR","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":2,"Final source with documented extraction/source reconciliation limits":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-12","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"Nuevo Progreso","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.614323843416372,1.8965933800434893,4.136671322660362],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-12|GT-M-12-12-2023-FINAL||854","GT-M-12-12|GT-M-12-12-2019-FINAL||514","GT-M-12-12|GT-M-12-12-2015-FINAL||175"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-12|GT-M-12-12-2023-FINAL||854","GT-M-12-12|GT-M-12-12-2019-FINAL||514","GT-M-12-12|GT-M-12-12-2015-FINAL||175"],"shares":[[0.21040925266903915,0.17426601423487542],[0.16936458081662237,0.1503986470161875],[0.24852261738476414,0.20715590415816051]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":84.24380273835547,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[17.426601423487543,21.040925266903916,7.584519572953736,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.6236654804270463,0,52.324288256227746],[15.039864701618749,4.91664653297898,0,6.414592896834984,0.08456148828219377,0,0,6.160908431988403,0,0.9664170089393573,3.6603044213578158,62.75670451799952],[19.963468357150532,0,0,5.941764263457612,0,20.715590415816052,24.852261738476415,0,0,0,0,28.526915225099387]],"volatility_latest":26.752783500235164,"volatility_previous":50.49145580982425,"volatility_mean":38.62211965502971,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"RUDY URBANO RODAS BARRIOS","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-13","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"El Tumbador","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.8196140212682153,2.0254005146509506,11.919652711353102],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-13|GT-M-12-13-2023-FINAL||855","GT-M-12-13|GT-M-12-13-2019-FINAL||515","GT-M-12-13|GT-M-12-13-2015-FINAL||176"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-13|GT-M-12-13-2023-FINAL||855","GT-M-12-13|GT-M-12-13-2019-FINAL||515","GT-M-12-13|GT-M-12-13-2015-FINAL||176"],"shares":[[0.40630169358014967,0.38810555336746755],[0.2668714202706068,0.2466174151240973],[0.3669340004414686,0.2477374733279376]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":85.54323080854238,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.8515163450177234,38.81055533674675,1.157936195352501,0,0,0,0,7.538400945254037,0,0,0.14178810555336746,49.49980307207562],[24.039179878808003,0,9.122603137710634,24.66174151240973,0.5561550593508757,0,0,26.68714202706068,0,1.2700257325475222,0.48144766331866856,13.181704988793891],[8.020013244058568,0,1.4347730115517623,5.775881097785299,0.46354204988595393,36.69340004414686,19.86608785225517,24.77374733279376,0,0,0,2.9725553675226255]],"volatility_latest":75.12865342002848,"volatility_previous":56.55948789640203,"volatility_mean":65.84407065821526,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JUAN CARLOS LOPEZ GODINEZ","party":"PPN","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-14","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"El Rodeo","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.1359439668895277,7.8100835137643045,31.90581309786608],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-14|GT-M-12-14-2023-FINAL||856","GT-M-12-14|GT-M-12-14-2019-FINAL||516","GT-M-12-14|GT-M-12-14-2015-FINAL||177"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-14|GT-M-12-14-2023-FINAL||856","GT-M-12-14|GT-M-12-14-2019-FINAL||516","GT-M-12-14|GT-M-12-14-2015-FINAL||177"],"shares":[[0.3670805475963069,0.3357211079274116],[0.30374265388184346,0.22564181874420045],[0.5534952170713761,0.23443708609271524]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":62.92413627975192,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.499204075135307,33.572110792741164,0,0,1.2575612862145813,0,0,0,0,0,0,62.67112384590895],[22.0228889576245,9.542220847510052,1.5156201670275287,0.27837921435199503,0,0,0,30.374265388184348,22.564181874420044,0,2.180637179090628,11.521806371790905],[55.349521707137605,0,2.8550404709345107,0,0,11.905813097866078,23.443708609271525,0,0,0,0,6.445916114790287]],"volatility_latest":76.43676870556374,"volatility_previous":70.01557476055768,"volatility_mean":73.22617173306071,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"RODERICO ELEAZAR RAMOS AGUILAR","party":"PODEMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-15","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"Malacatán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":2,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.860910564314132,5.439314241184494,17.855913238078845],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-15|GT-M-12-15-2023-FINAL||857","GT-M-12-15|GT-M-12-15-2019-FINAL||517","GT-M-12-15|GT-M-12-15-2015-FINAL||178"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-15|GT-M-12-15-2023-FINAL||857","GT-M-12-15|GT-M-12-15-2019-FINAL||517","GT-M-12-15|GT-M-12-15-2015-FINAL||178"],"shares":[[0.3048106674524827,0.1862015618093414],[0.29881161114358074,0.2444184687317358],[0.35160957135479426,0.17305043897400585]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":47.33034032624144,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.596876381317224,11.625165758066892,1.3076469721526447,0,1.149255930455282,0,0,30.48106674524827,0.7624871077059083,0,0.46780609989686167,51.609695005156915],[21.21955971166959,2.743035262030002,0.954607442041691,1.9053185271770894,0,0,0,29.881161114358076,0,2.306643288525229,3.9470095460744203,37.042665108123906],[9.816663797555517,0,0.4217593389567912,12.472026166293682,0.2108796694783956,3.6839387157858496,35.16095713547943,0,0,0,0,38.23377517645033]],"volatility_latest":26.31384859223224,"volatility_previous":50.8135932281867,"volatility_mean":38.56372091020947,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MYNOR RAFAEL LÓPEZ SAMAYOA","party":"CREO","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final source with documented extraction/source reconciliation limits":1,"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":2},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-16","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"Catarina","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.32671629445823,9.988168014198383,1.2888888888888879],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-16|GT-M-12-16-2023-FINAL||858","GT-M-12-16|GT-M-12-16-2019-FINAL||518","GT-M-12-16|GT-M-12-16-2015-FINAL||179"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-16|GT-M-12-16-2023-FINAL||858","GT-M-12-16|GT-M-12-16-2019-FINAL||518","GT-M-12-16|GT-M-12-16-2015-FINAL||179"],"shares":[[0.31687344913151366,0.2636062861869313],[0.22845592585288899,0.12857424571090514],[0.2495111111111111,0.23662222222222223]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":68.39315465088329,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[18.69313482216708,26.360628618693134,4.689826302729529,0,0.2729528535980149,0,0,31.687344913151364,0,0,0,18.296112489660878],[9.228948925261289,7.128771445474265,2.297377243147308,4.082035101557878,9.228948925261289,0,0,22.845592585288898,10.648787221455335,0.6803391835929797,4.663774403470716,29.19542496549004],[6.417777777777777,0,3.013333333333333,0.7555555555555555,1.0666666666666667,23.662222222222223,23.342222222222222,0,0,0,0,41.74222222222222]],"volatility_latest":39.930244457569344,"volatility_previous":60.26719779136265,"volatility_mean":50.098721124465996,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"LUIS ALBERTO MENDOZA BARRIOS","party":"CREO","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-17","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"Ayutla","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.194867980661954,44.03126744835287,48.464194838240644],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-17|GT-M-12-17-2023-FINAL||859","GT-M-12-17|GT-M-12-17-2019-FINAL||519","GT-M-12-17|GT-M-12-17-2015-FINAL||180"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-17|GT-M-12-17-2023-FINAL||859","GT-M-12-17|GT-M-12-17-2019-FINAL||519","GT-M-12-17|GT-M-12-17-2015-FINAL||180"],"shares":[[0.5057642246188174,0.41381554481219784],[0.650251256281407,0.20993858179787828],[0.6118684114867321,0.1272264631043257]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[41.38155448121979,0,0,0,0.7995537374488657,0,0,0,2.2127184827073263,0,0,55.60617329862403],[6.097152428810721,20.99385817978783,0,0.9491903964265773,6.934673366834171,0,0,0,0,0,0,65.0251256281407],[3.76226826608506,0,2.399127589967285,12.72264631043257,0,0,12.522719011268629,0,0,0,0,68.59323882224646]],"volatility_latest":37.49712053511639,"volatility_previous":30.263415709347665,"volatility_mean":33.880268122232025,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ISEL ANELI SUÑIGA MORFIN","party":"CCC","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-18","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"Ocós","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[36.37985725614591,9.625230391152982,5.436573311367383],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-18|GT-M-12-18-2023-FINAL||860","GT-M-12-18|GT-M-12-18-2019-FINAL||520","GT-M-12-18|GT-M-12-18-2015-FINAL||181"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-18|GT-M-12-18-2023-FINAL||860","GT-M-12-18|GT-M-12-18-2019-FINAL||520","GT-M-12-18|GT-M-12-18-2015-FINAL||181"],"shares":[[0.5868358445678034,0.22303727200634416],[0.3786606594306779,0.28240835551914806],[0.4592257001647447,0.40485996705107086]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[16.177636796193497,58.68358445678033,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,25.13877874702617],[28.240835551914806,3.5224247388900265,10.362482080688102,0.32766741757116524,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,57.5465902109359],[6.4456342668863265,0,0,40.485996705107084,0,45.92257001647447,7.145799011532125,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":55.161159717890314,"volatility_previous":93.2266983155425,"volatility_mean":74.19392901671641,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ALVARO GUILLERMO LOPEZ RABANALES","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-19","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"San Pablo","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.677562952627735,3.3790833935307774,0.6748510302247119],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-19|GT-M-12-19-2023-FINAL||861","GT-M-12-19|GT-M-12-19-2019-FINAL||521","GT-M-12-19|GT-M-12-19-2015-FINAL||182"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-19|GT-M-12-19-2023-FINAL||861","GT-M-12-19|GT-M-12-19-2019-FINAL||521","GT-M-12-19|GT-M-12-19-2015-FINAL||182"],"shares":[[0.2946648063251611,0.2678891767988838],[0.33381491291435905,0.3000240789790513],[0.23174671548567738,0.22499820518343025]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":86.56126053670828,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.677430071091622,29.466480632516113,26.788917679888378,0,0.465085376386951,0,0,9.680419905654109,0,0,0,28.921666334462824],[12.336463600610001,30.00240789790513,2.2313187254193756,33.38149129143591,0,0,0,1.6213179227867405,0.9069748775985231,0,0,19.520025684244324],[21.631129298585684,0,0,22.499820518343025,0,9.950463062674995,9.28279129872927,0,0,0,0,36.63579582166703]],"volatility_latest":42.483426963941824,"volatility_previous":45.64369019680265,"volatility_mean":44.06355858037224,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"PEDRO DARIO DE LEON ESCOBAR","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-20","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"El Quetzal","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.2324621733149943,17.149797570850204,5.270655270655272],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-20|GT-M-12-20-2023-FINAL||862","GT-M-12-20|GT-M-12-20-2019-FINAL||522","GT-M-12-20|GT-M-12-20-2015-FINAL||183"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-20|GT-M-12-20-2023-FINAL||862","GT-M-12-20|GT-M-12-20-2019-FINAL||522","GT-M-12-20|GT-M-12-20-2015-FINAL||183"],"shares":[[0.19188445667125173,0.15955983493810177],[0.3185425101214575,0.14704453441295548],[0.29943019943019944,0.24672364672364672]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":61.942589488452086,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[10.123796423658872,19.188445667125173,6.052269601100413,0,5.061898211829436,0,0,2.668500687757909,0,0,0,56.90508940852819],[14.704453441295547,0,0,31.85425101214575,0.8906882591093117,0,0,12.761133603238866,4.437246963562753,4.728744939271255,0,30.623481781376515],[24.672364672364672,0,0,19.08831908831909,0,14.572649572649572,29.943019943019944,0,0,0,0,11.723646723646723]],"volatility_latest":55.69353284809739,"volatility_previous":54.48358074673864,"volatility_mean":55.088556797418015,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"EDGAR MISAEL HIDALGO FUENTES","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-21","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"La Reforma","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.799813656329029,11.488173938592627,6.503834138028967],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-21|GT-M-12-21-2023-FINAL||863","GT-M-12-21|GT-M-12-21-2019-FINAL||523","GT-M-12-21|GT-M-12-21-2015-FINAL||184"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-21|GT-M-12-21-2023-FINAL||863","GT-M-12-21|GT-M-12-21-2019-FINAL||523","GT-M-12-21|GT-M-12-21-2015-FINAL||184"],"shares":[[0.35871156661786235,0.2807134300545721],[0.3005729396209784,0.18569120023505215],[0.36779324055666,0.30275489917637033]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":56.11638105410949,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.7170238253693597,28.07134300545721,0,0,0.4658591774257953,0,0,15.120457873020099,0,0,0,54.62531611872754],[13.633024827383576,7.051564565888056,0,30.05729396209784,0.2938151902453357,0,0,3.114441016600558,11.23843102688409,0,0,34.61142941090055],[13.85969894916217,0,2.68389662027833,11.10479977279182,0,30.275489917637035,36.779324055666,0,0,0,0,5.296790684464641]],"volatility_latest":53.21172599099614,"volatility_previous":69.96538471535996,"volatility_mean":61.58855535317805,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"CARLOS NOEL LOPEZ MERIDA","party":"PHG","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-22","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"Pajapita","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[19.899163269684617,12.900782630648827,6.587043069127759],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-22|GT-M-12-22-2023-FINAL||864","GT-M-12-22|GT-M-12-22-2019-FINAL||524","GT-M-12-22|GT-M-12-22-2015-FINAL||185"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-22|GT-M-12-22-2023-FINAL||864","GT-M-12-22|GT-M-12-22-2019-FINAL||524","GT-M-12-22|GT-M-12-22-2015-FINAL||185"],"shares":[[0.36215404419652436,0.1631624114996782],[0.33047210300429186,0.2014642766978036],[0.3872602243937749,0.32138979370249726]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":17.657814710409024,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[3.7223771722806265,36.21540441965244,6.897661446041622,0,0,0,0,13.012229135378675,0,0.836730315382965,0,39.315597511263675],[17.87427417318859,9.429437010855844,33.047210300429185,20.14642766978036,3.559707144660439,0,0,0,1.792476647311285,0,0,14.1504670537743],[5.259983110145977,0,0,38.72602243937749,0,23.875015080226806,32.13897937024973,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":65.8000573170476,"volatility_previous":74.59358922007367,"volatility_mean":70.19682326856064,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"HILMA FLORINDA LOPEZ NAVARRO","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-23","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"Ixchiguán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.975030205396699,10.849539406345958,22.804454993609635],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-23|GT-M-12-23-2023-FINAL||865","GT-M-12-23|GT-M-12-23-2019-FINAL||525","GT-M-12-23|GT-M-12-23-2015-FINAL||186"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-23|GT-M-12-23-2023-FINAL||865","GT-M-12-23|GT-M-12-23-2019-FINAL||525","GT-M-12-23|GT-M-12-23-2015-FINAL||186"],"shares":[[0.47643979057591623,0.33668948852194924],[0.30992835209826,0.2014329580348004],[0.4356399488771225,0.20759539894102613]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":30.39837277748615,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.671365283930729,33.66894885219492,0,0,3.2219089810712846,0,0,0,0,0,0,61.437776882803064],[8.311156601842375,30.992835209825998,0,10.562947799385874,0,0,0,12.814738996929375,2.7021494370522006,0,7.697031729785056,26.91914022517912],[20.759539894102613,0,0,0,0,43.56399488771225,0,0,0,0,0,35.676465218185136]],"volatility_latest":40.416659281064156,"volatility_previous":64.7697031729785,"volatility_mean":52.593181227021326,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ALBERTO LUCAS MARTIN","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-24","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"San José Ojetenam","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.148813341885827,4.904328441389563,2.4619371558147094],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-24|GT-M-12-24-2023-FINAL||866","GT-M-12-24|GT-M-12-24-2019-FINAL||526","GT-M-12-24|GT-M-12-24-2015-FINAL||187"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-24|GT-M-12-24-2023-FINAL||866","GT-M-12-24|GT-M-12-24-2019-FINAL||526","GT-M-12-24|GT-M-12-24-2015-FINAL||187"],"shares":[[0.41982039769082746,0.3983322642719692],[0.24038640163477618,0.19134311722088054],[0.3683187560738581,0.343699384515711]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":84.96609873435081,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[3.191148171905067,39.83322642719692,41.982039769082746,0,2.261064785118666,0,0,0,0,0,0,12.7325208466966],[16.997956529816086,24.038640163477616,0,17.035110533159948,0.2229240200631618,0,0,0,0,6.371911573472041,0,35.33345718001115],[36.83187560738581,0,0,0,0,34.3699384515711,22.724327826368643,0,0,0,0,6.073858114674441]],"volatility_latest":59.81476679785756,"volatility_previous":76.92818535550947,"volatility_mean":68.3714760766835,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"LUDWING OLIVERIO MONZON SANCHEZ","party":"TODOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-25","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"San Cristóbal Cucho","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.9454774661203906,8.788953162903525,9.833281877122573],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-25|GT-M-12-25-2023-FINAL||867","GT-M-12-25|GT-M-12-25-2019-FINAL||527","GT-M-12-25|GT-M-12-25-2015-FINAL||188"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-25|GT-M-12-25-2023-FINAL||867","GT-M-12-25|GT-M-12-25-2019-FINAL||527","GT-M-12-25|GT-M-12-25-2015-FINAL||188"],"shares":[[0.22722975102426726,0.21777497636306337],[0.30863967158051875,0.2207501399514835],[0.37295461562210563,0.2746217968508799]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":79.06349691872225,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.7806492278600694,21.50961235423889,22.722975102426727,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,53.98676331547431],[2.5377869005411458,30.863967158051874,0,18.137712259749954,0,0,0,0,9.012875536480687,2.519126702743049,0,36.92853144243329],[27.46217968508799,0,0,14.989194195739426,0,37.29546156221056,16.008027168879284,0,0,0,0,4.245137388082742]],"volatility_latest":39.781206975467754,"volatility_previous":78.22788151563668,"volatility_mean":59.00454424555222,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"OSMAR OBDULIO LOPEZ RAMIREZ","party":"TODOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-26","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"Sipacapa","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.745762711864405,7.047958522359039,7.389937106918239],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-26|GT-M-12-26-2023-FINAL||868","GT-M-12-26|GT-M-12-26-2019-FINAL||528","GT-M-12-26|GT-M-12-26-2015-FINAL||189"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-26|GT-M-12-26-2023-FINAL||868","GT-M-12-26|GT-M-12-26-2019-FINAL||528","GT-M-12-26|GT-M-12-26-2015-FINAL||189"],"shares":[[0.3590138674884437,0.3115562403697997],[0.42206740116655866,0.3515878159429683],[0.34556254367575123,0.2716631726065688]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":71.4958055274091,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[35.901386748844374,31.15562403697997,0,0,0.9553158705701078,0,0,25.007704160246533,0,0,0,6.979969183359014],[1.6688269604666235,7.890473104342191,4.131561892417369,0,0,0,0,42.206740116655865,35.158781594296826,0,0,8.943616331821127],[6.60377358490566,0,3.9482879105520614,3.1097134870719776,0,34.55625436757512,24.615653389238293,0,0,0,0,27.166317260656882]],"volatility_latest":58.45302659158564,"volatility_previous":85.43926879716018,"volatility_mean":71.94614769437291,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JULIO ANTONIO LOPEZ Y LOPEZ","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-27","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"Esquipulas Palo Gordo","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[30.873721281234275,16.146929405012436,1.457991616548206],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-27|GT-M-12-27-2023-FINAL||869","GT-M-12-27|GT-M-12-27-2019-FINAL||529","GT-M-12-27|GT-M-12-27-2015-FINAL||190"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-27|GT-M-12-27-2023-FINAL||869","GT-M-12-27|GT-M-12-27-2019-FINAL||529","GT-M-12-27|GT-M-12-27-2015-FINAL||190"],"shares":[[0.6382693275197048,0.32953211470736204],[0.5597857279510235,0.39831643390089916],[0.34390377255330784,0.3293238563878258]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.006204930404159,63.82693275197048,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,35.16686231762536],[1.8940118614884254,0,0,0.42089152477520564,39.831643390089916,0,0,0,55.97857279510235,0.15305146355462024,0.09565716472163766,1.62617180026784],[17.751047931474393,0,0,0.6925460178603973,0,32.93238563878258,34.39037725533078,0,0,0,0,14.23364315655185]],"volatility_latest":97.36762326932799,"volatility_previous":96.05892481346852,"volatility_mean":96.71327404139825,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"EXADILLAS DIONEL RAMOS AGUILAR","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-28","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"Río Blanco","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[30.21638330757342,0.33016921172100666,1.1418533157663617],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-28|GT-M-12-28-2023-FINAL||870","GT-M-12-28|GT-M-12-28-2019-FINAL||530","GT-M-12-28|GT-M-12-28-2015-FINAL||191"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-28|GT-M-12-28-2023-FINAL||870","GT-M-12-28|GT-M-12-28-2019-FINAL||530","GT-M-12-28|GT-M-12-28-2015-FINAL||191"],"shares":[[0.5351622874806801,0.2329984544049459],[0.29054890631448616,0.2872472141972761],[0.40491875274483974,0.3935002195871761]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":8.284669601815043,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[19.976816074188562,53.51622874806801,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,26.506955177743432],[28.72472141972761,27.89929839042509,0,2.022286421791168,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,41.35369376805613],[40.491875274483974,0,0,0,0,20.158102766798418,39.35002195871761,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":25.616930357642918,"volatility_previous":71.27527858027238,"volatility_mean":48.44610446895765,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"OSCAR TERESO ALVAREZ ABELARDE","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-29","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"San Lorenzo","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.685385169186464,1.4580801944106945,1.2636538873420449],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-29|GT-M-12-29-2023-FINAL||871","GT-M-12-29|GT-M-12-29-2019-FINAL||531","GT-M-12-29|GT-M-12-29-2015-FINAL||192"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-29|GT-M-12-29-2023-FINAL||871","GT-M-12-29|GT-M-12-29-2019-FINAL||531","GT-M-12-29|GT-M-12-29-2015-FINAL||192"],"shares":[[0.2960763138948884,0.21922246220302377],[0.24038072093965168,0.22579991899554475],[0.4733347611908332,0.4606982223174127]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":74.12489725715355,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[7.79337652987761,29.60763138948884,0,0,1.4758819294456444,0,0,0,0,0,0,61.12311015118791],[7.857432158768733,0,3.240178209801539,9.457270149858243,3.422438234102876,0,0,15.168084244633455,24.03807209396517,22.579991899554475,0,14.236533009315512],[6.5967016491754125,0,0,0,0,47.333476119083315,46.06982223174127,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":76.49420853136124,"volatility_previous":93.40329835082458,"volatility_mean":84.94875344109292,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MAXIMILIANO MARROQUIN FELICIANO","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-12-30","country":"Guatemala","region":"San Marcos","name":"La Blanca","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.891886450573786,2.5159139133070596,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-12-30|GT-M-12-30-2023-FINAL||872","GT-M-12-30|GT-M-12-30-2019-FINAL||532","GT-M-12-30|GT-M-12-30-2015-FINAL||193"],"all_keys":["GT-M-12-30|GT-M-12-30-2023-FINAL||872","GT-M-12-30|GT-M-12-30-2019-FINAL||532","GT-M-12-30|GT-M-12-30-2015-FINAL||193"],"shares":[[0.4430239581236159,0.33410509361787805],[0.3723350510255633,0.3471759118924927],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.7515602979665794,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,98.24843970203342],[34.71759118924927,15.42891785389512,0,37.23350510255633,0,0,0,3.1726785894715572,0,0,0.11114479135091442,9.336162473476811],null],"volatility_latest":88.9122772285566,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"EDILMA ELIZABETH NAVARIJO DE LEON","party":"PPN","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":2,"Final source with documented extraction/source reconciliation limits":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-01","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"Huehuetenango","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.444666223109337,15.422487931199846,4.892532450470334],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-01|GT-M-13-01-2023-FINAL||873","GT-M-13-01|GT-M-13-01-2019-FINAL||533","GT-M-13-01|GT-M-13-01-2015-FINAL||194"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-01|GT-M-13-01-2023-FINAL||873","GT-M-13-01|GT-M-13-01-2019-FINAL||533","GT-M-13-01|GT-M-13-01-2015-FINAL||194"],"shares":[[0.2627522732313151,0.20830561100022177],[0.31561111288724064,0.16138623357524218],[0.19690997950496608,0.14798465500026275]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":58.08600320863706,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[12.599800399201596,26.275227323131514,19.02583721445997,0,2.032047017076957,0,0,0,0,0.6015746285207363,0,39.465513417609216],[5.092873813101442,31.561111288724064,2.413760030691518,11.851401899037693,1.7935355989641613,0,0,0.6458006969532274,16.138623357524217,3.376067009814892,2.308257936634803,24.81856836855398],[13.135214672342215,0,2.745809028325188,7.661989594828945,3.6864785327657787,19.69099795049661,14.798465500026275,12.399495506857953,0,0,0,25.881549214357037]],"volatility_latest":39.004460237036646,"volatility_previous":57.573471896906725,"volatility_mean":48.28896606697168,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"GUSTAVO ADOLFO CANO VILLATORO","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-02","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"Chiantla","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[21.55846959149533,37.678780773739746,7.371911337209305],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-02|GT-M-13-02-2023-FINAL||874","GT-M-13-02|GT-M-13-02-2019-FINAL||534","GT-M-13-02|GT-M-13-02-2015-FINAL||195"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-02|GT-M-13-02-2023-FINAL||874","GT-M-13-02|GT-M-13-02-2019-FINAL||534","GT-M-13-02|GT-M-13-02-2015-FINAL||195"],"shares":[[0.45135178889428523,0.23576709297933193],[0.4743259085580305,0.09753810082063305],[0.419921875,0.346202761627907]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[23.576709297933192,45.13517888942852,4.241541201230371,0,4.943068371917327,0,0,0,0,1.1440289245048838,0,20.959473314985704],[47.43259085580305,4.202813599062134,2.086752637749121,7.543962485345838,2.3329425556858148,0,0,0,9.753810082063305,1.3423212192262604,2.4443141852286048,22.860492379835872],[41.9921875,0,4.156068313953488,1.7668968023255813,0,14.203306686046512,34.620276162790695,0,0,0,0,3.261264534883721]],"volatility_latest":45.697279670079155,"volatility_previous":50.89289852504157,"volatility_mean":48.295089097560364,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ELVIS GILBERTO TELLO ALVARADO","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-03","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"Malacatancito","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.664850136239778,1.3566889919285572,14.814814814814813],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-03|GT-M-13-03-2023-FINAL||875","GT-M-13-03|GT-M-13-03-2019-FINAL||535","GT-M-13-03|GT-M-13-03-2015-FINAL||196"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-03|GT-M-13-03-2023-FINAL||875","GT-M-13-03|GT-M-13-03-2019-FINAL||535","GT-M-13-03|GT-M-13-03-2015-FINAL||196"],"shares":[[0.4066000605510142,0.21995155918861642],[0.34672849046883053,0.33316160054954497],[0.3503821281599059,0.20223398001175777]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":34.56300869598042,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.420224038752649,40.66000605510142,2.437178322736906,0,1.6651528913109295,0,0,0,0,0,0,50.8174386920981],[34.67284904688305,0,3.400309119010819,0,0.9273570324574961,0,0,0,15.79941610853512,0,0,45.20006869311352],[0.30864197530864196,0,6.15814226925338,15.22633744855967,0,20.223398001175777,20.076425631981188,0,0,0,0,38.007054673721335]],"volatility_latest":47.01517191293943,"volatility_previous":58.283994231959205,"volatility_mean":52.64958307244932,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"IRMA ELIZABETH AVILA ALVARADO","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-04","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"Cuilco","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.90529577978306,4.417382999044893,0.25899546757931446],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-04|GT-M-13-04-2023-FINAL||876","GT-M-13-04|GT-M-13-04-2019-FINAL||536","GT-M-13-04|GT-M-13-04-2015-FINAL||197"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-04|GT-M-13-04-2023-FINAL||876","GT-M-13-04|GT-M-13-04-2019-FINAL||536","GT-M-13-04|GT-M-13-04-2015-FINAL||197"],"shares":[[0.3292316106097894,0.24017865281195883],[0.25489493791786055,0.21072110792741164],[0.20451392100638238,0.20192396633058923]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":66.52854042829382,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[19.85233798195242,24.01786528119588,4.539239814055237,0,0.6107009388387568,0,0,0,0,0,0,50.979855983957705],[25.489493791786057,6.8170964660936,0.7043935052531041,18.147086914995224,11.89111747851003,0,0,0,1.3610315186246418,0,0,35.58978032473733],[20.451392100638238,0,1.5262232910924058,4.560170197021552,0,20.192396633058923,13.273517713440015,0,0,0,0,39.99630006474886]],"volatility_latest":36.42569078312478,"volatility_previous":38.694263872349765,"volatility_mean":37.55997732773727,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"AUDILIO EPIFANIO ROBLERO ARREAGA","party":"U R N G - MAIZ","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-05","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"Nentón","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.9246649304452745,3.760243193232885,9.083301145873566],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-05|GT-M-13-05-2023-FINAL||877","GT-M-13-05|GT-M-13-05-2019-FINAL||537","GT-M-13-05|GT-M-13-05-2015-FINAL||198"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-05|GT-M-13-05-2023-FINAL||877","GT-M-13-05|GT-M-13-05-2019-FINAL||537","GT-M-13-05|GT-M-13-05-2015-FINAL||198"],"shares":[[0.3907768532045989,0.3715302039001461],[0.29982817869415807,0.26222574676182925],[0.38373889532638084,0.29290588386764516]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":84.04398984587806,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[17.29022422664041,39.077685320459885,0.15244870736200217,0,0.6097948294480087,0,0,0,0,0,0,42.8698469160897],[7.203277821834523,17.58524980174465,0.45598731165741474,14.413164155432197,0,0,0,0,29.982817869415808,0.7203277821834523,0,29.639175257731956],[14.831981460023176,0,0,0.11587485515643106,0,38.37388953263808,29.290588386764515,0,0,0,0,17.387665765417793]],"volatility_latest":45.419848411326875,"volatility_previous":75.29318155759125,"volatility_mean":60.35651498445907,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"RUDI GORDILLO VELASCO","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-06","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"San Pedro Necta","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.697498354180382,2.436814928888488,6.2085497403116285],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-06|GT-M-13-06-2023-FINAL||878","GT-M-13-06|GT-M-13-06-2019-FINAL||538","GT-M-13-06|GT-M-13-06-2015-FINAL||199"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-06|GT-M-13-06-2023-FINAL||878","GT-M-13-06|GT-M-13-06-2019-FINAL||538","GT-M-13-06|GT-M-13-06-2015-FINAL||199"],"shares":[[0.478439763001975,0.35146477946017113],[0.2753872633390706,0.2510191140501857],[0.3679584498601678,0.30587295245705154]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":55.1480076739703,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.583607636603029,35.146477946017114,0,0,0.48551678736010534,0,0,0,0,0,0.5184331797235023,59.265964450296245],[6.078449134885406,0,10.92490261799076,25.10191140501857,0,0,0,0.8696439894918018,27.538726333907057,3.9949270767279645,0.9964670712926895,24.494972370685748],[23.18018377946464,0,1.74190970834998,3.8433879344786255,0,36.79584498601678,30.587295245705153,0,0,0,0,3.851378345984818]],"volatility_latest":70.40298681298772,"volatility_previous":84.48487487630118,"volatility_mean":77.44393084464446,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"RONY VITALINO GALICIA HERRERA","party":"BIEN","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-07","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"Jacaltenango","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.103141628398575,0.42983363846215283,6.491774121831927],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-07|GT-M-13-07-2023-FINAL||879","GT-M-13-07|GT-M-13-07-2019-FINAL||539","GT-M-13-07|GT-M-13-07-2015-FINAL||200"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-07|GT-M-13-07-2023-FINAL||879","GT-M-13-07|GT-M-13-07-2019-FINAL||539","GT-M-13-07|GT-M-13-07-2015-FINAL||200"],"shares":[[0.46854727020919895,0.3175158539252132],[0.22940380482368863,0.2251054684390671],[0.25319189481039195,0.18827415359207264]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":50.799937596195086,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[31.75158539252132,14.833442670748596,2.19403746628763,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,51.22093447044246],[22.940380482368862,1.8705723155297302,1.7193345538486031,11.884104115259094,0,0,0,0,10.308047440897875,0,2.2526466608294196,49.02491443126642],[16.559740837197484,0,0.3938258273518389,0.6097948294480087,1.5181350441466048,25.319189481039192,10.842914311122403,0,0,0,0,44.75639966969446]],"volatility_latest":24.444798216986392,"volatility_previous":37.680238836308206,"volatility_mean":31.0625185266473,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MARIO AUGUSTO CRUZ DELGADO","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-08","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"Soloma","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.8598655740723693,1.7055860805860803,12.765594333987544],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-08|GT-M-13-08-2023-FINAL||880","GT-M-13-08|GT-M-13-08-2019-FINAL||540","GT-M-13-08|GT-M-13-08-2015-FINAL||201"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-08|GT-M-13-08-2023-FINAL||880","GT-M-13-08|GT-M-13-08-2019-FINAL||540","GT-M-13-08|GT-M-13-08-2015-FINAL||201"],"shares":[[0.3172820182303655,0.29868336248964183],[0.3509615384615385,0.3339056776556777],[0.5200102397815514,0.3923542964416759]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":85.47922698990999,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[10.22005340208084,12.319307614400147,7.080379338919069,0,4.898259828745051,0,0,0,0,0,0,65.4819998158549],[14.251373626373626,0,33.390567765567766,8.89423076923077,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,43.46382783882783],[39.23542964416759,0,0.23039508490485536,0,0.2815939926614899,52.00102397815513,6.647324857069716,0,0,0,0,1.6042324430412152]],"volatility_latest":39.235739420172266,"volatility_previous":83.9139988456803,"volatility_mean":61.57486913292628,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JOEL JEREMIAS CARDONA DOMINGUEZ","party":"PODEMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-09","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"Ixtahuacán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.254597272172084,14.743933246574294,2.3703919144913854],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-09|GT-M-13-09-2023-FINAL||881","GT-M-13-09|GT-M-13-09-2019-FINAL||541","GT-M-13-09|GT-M-13-09-2015-FINAL||202"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-09|GT-M-13-09-2023-FINAL||881","GT-M-13-09|GT-M-13-09-2019-FINAL||541","GT-M-13-09|GT-M-13-09-2015-FINAL||202"],"shares":[[0.2358010449888037,0.19325507226708286],[0.3182270535099135,0.17078772104417056],[0.3101868683196394,0.2864829491747255]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":63.935112356376614,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[9.852751577661667,19.325507226708286,11.291307593132931,0,1.1942729185044445,0,0,0,0,0,0,58.336160683992674],[31.82270535099135,2.197045089183189,17.078772104417055,12.409094388731532,8.068590675954987,0,0,0,5.496440327642961,1.4315241521855622,1.7760085738344944,19.71981933705887],[31.018686831963937,0,3.780993237839017,1.7378026612375481,2.835744928379263,28.64829491747255,1.9123100414455028,0,0,0,0,30.066167381662186]],"volatility_latest":55.7448034844589,"volatility_previous":40.906953003521366,"volatility_mean":48.32587824399013,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JULIO NORBERTO ALVA DIAZ","party":"BIEN","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-10","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"Santa Bárbara","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.436236268110171,15.114104002992896,6.4127743147468195],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-10|GT-M-13-10-2023-FINAL||882","GT-M-13-10|GT-M-13-10-2019-FINAL||542","GT-M-13-10|GT-M-13-10-2015-FINAL||203"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-10|GT-M-13-10-2023-FINAL||882","GT-M-13-10|GT-M-13-10-2019-FINAL||542","GT-M-13-10|GT-M-13-10-2015-FINAL||203"],"shares":[[0.5343098232765483,0.4299474605954466],[0.4943883277216611,0.34324728769173213],[0.4755358210229699,0.41140807787550165]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":42.81374803380673,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.6000636841267315,53.43098232765483,42.99474605954466,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1273682534628244,0.1990128960356631,1.6478267791752905],[49.43883277216611,0.7949869060980173,0.51440329218107,13.468013468013469,34.32472876917321,0,0,0,0.15899738121960344,0.17770295548073325,0,1.122334455667789],[5.883357527111263,0,41.140807787550166,0,0,47.553582102296986,0.5721116898642302,0,0,0,0,4.850140893177355]],"volatility_latest":95.84084340846357,"volatility_previous":92.47990472503987,"volatility_mean":94.16037406675173,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"RIGOBERTO PEREZ SALES","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-11","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"La Libertad","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[25.847288676236044,1.0992335619201299,24.793650793650794],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-11|GT-M-13-11-2023-FINAL||883","GT-M-13-11|GT-M-13-11-2019-FINAL||543","GT-M-13-11|GT-M-13-11-2015-FINAL||204"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-11|GT-M-13-11-2023-FINAL||883","GT-M-13-11|GT-M-13-11-2019-FINAL||543","GT-M-13-11|GT-M-13-11-2015-FINAL||204"],"shares":[[0.530103668261563,0.27163078149920256],[0.2893303751512707,0.27833803953206937],[0.4958730158730159,0.24793650793650795]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":8.412458231586283,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[15.819377990430622,53.0103668261563,27.163078149920256,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,4.007177033492823],[28.93303751512707,6.313029447357805,27.83380395320694,10.18555869302138,0,0,0,5.90964098426785,5.213795885437676,0,0,15.611133521581282],[1.9285714285714286,0,9.801587301587302,0.5714285714285714,0,49.58730158730159,13.317460317460318,0,0,0,0,24.793650793650794]],"volatility_latest":46.697337378798494,"volatility_previous":72.08727917683142,"volatility_mean":59.392308277814955,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ERIK JOSUE MARTINEZ HERRERA","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-12","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"La Democracia","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[25.75057736720554,3.412840576977466,4.944475463738446],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-12|GT-M-13-12-2023-FINAL||884","GT-M-13-12|GT-M-13-12-2019-FINAL||544","GT-M-13-12|GT-M-13-12-2015-FINAL||205"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-12|GT-M-13-12-2023-FINAL||884","GT-M-13-12|GT-M-13-12-2019-FINAL||544","GT-M-13-12|GT-M-13-12-2015-FINAL||205"],"shares":[[0.5123941493456505,0.25488837567359507],[0.3075327613839917,0.27340435561421705],[0.2728457100316397,0.22340095539425522]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":15.156769301047957,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[25.488837567359507,51.23941493456505,0,0,8.460354118552733,0,0,0,0,0,0,14.811393379522709],[27.340435561421703,0,0,10.398793249740738,0,0,0,8.400113132836806,9.276892618082398,2.526633355331385,3.8653719242009994,38.19176015838597],[16.84968050127179,0,3.5424033748991874,0,0,27.28457100316397,22.340095539425523,0,0,0,0,29.98324958123953]],"volatility_latest":59.699769053117784,"volatility_previous":53.167069917488675,"volatility_mean":56.43341948530323,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"SANTIAGO AMINABAD MOLINA LOPEZ","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-13","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"San Miguel Acatán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.357605677260107,1.3255401315102837,7.196344713796169],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-13|GT-M-13-13-2023-FINAL||885","GT-M-13-13|GT-M-13-13-2019-FINAL||545","GT-M-13-13|GT-M-13-13-2015-FINAL||206"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-13|GT-M-13-13-2023-FINAL||885","GT-M-13-13|GT-M-13-13-2019-FINAL||545","GT-M-13-13|GT-M-13-13-2015-FINAL||206"],"shares":[[0.31183791011004836,0.29826185333744726],[0.20206659012629163,0.1888111888111888],[0.3862165249397132,0.3142530778017515]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":90.34070041405617,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[31.183791011004836,6.530906098940656,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,62.28530289005451],[18.88111888111888,0.7306126709111783,10.019830915353303,20.206659012629164,15.269804822043628,0,0,0,0,0,0,34.89197369794385],[27.668485848457927,0,0,0,0,38.62165249397132,31.42530778017515,0,0,0,0,2.2845538773956084]],"volatility_latest":45.496294750026095,"volatility_previous":78.83432724148551,"volatility_mean":62.1653109957558,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"FELIPE FELIPE MARCOS","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-14","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"San Rafael La Independencia","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.5878614553543073,9.482758620689651,1.7368421052631575],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-14|GT-M-13-14-2023-FINAL||886","GT-M-13-14|GT-M-13-14-2019-FINAL||546","GT-M-13-14|GT-M-13-14-2015-FINAL||207"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-14|GT-M-13-14-2023-FINAL||886","GT-M-13-14|GT-M-13-14-2019-FINAL||546","GT-M-13-14|GT-M-13-14-2015-FINAL||207"],"shares":[[0.5009532888465205,0.4950746742929774],[0.5301724137931034,0.4353448275862069],[0.501578947368421,0.4842105263157894]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":83.14385665027102,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[50.09532888465205,49.50746742929774,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.39720368605020656],[53.01724137931034,0,0,3.4482758620689653,0,0,0,0,43.53448275862069,0,0,0],[1.4210526315789473,0,0,0,0,50.1578947368421,48.421052631578945,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":49.904671115347945,"volatility_previous":98.57894736842105,"volatility_mean":74.2418092418845,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"EMILIO FRANCISCO ANDRES","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-15","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"Todos Santos Cuchumatán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.070388349514566,16.56004195070792,15.286730849727924],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-15|GT-M-13-15-2023-FINAL||887","GT-M-13-15|GT-M-13-15-2019-FINAL||547","GT-M-13-15|GT-M-13-15-2015-FINAL||208"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-15|GT-M-13-15-2023-FINAL||887","GT-M-13-15|GT-M-13-15-2019-FINAL||547","GT-M-13-15|GT-M-13-15-2015-FINAL||208"],"shares":[[0.46038488210818307,0.3796809986130374],[0.4724698479286838,0.30686942842160464],[0.49141900376726666,0.3385516952699874]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":43.30540660053046,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.996879334257975,37.96809986130374,2.019764216366158,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,59.01525658807212],[30.686942842160462,0,0.5138961719979025,0.9334032511798637,0,0,0,47.24698479286838,0.18877818563188253,0,0,20.429994756161513],[49.14190037672667,0,0.602762662201758,0,0,33.85516952699874,14.843030556718292,0,0,0,0,1.5571368773545418]],"volatility_latest":78.05922973758261,"volatility_previous":67.2420241084871,"volatility_mean":72.65062692303485,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"TOMAS PABLO RAMOS","party":"PPN","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-16","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"San Juan Atitán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.361243349201906,10.570847167184318,10.196000791922387],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-16|GT-M-13-16-2023-FINAL||888","GT-M-13-16|GT-M-13-16-2019-FINAL||548","GT-M-13-16|GT-M-13-16-2015-FINAL||209"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-16|GT-M-13-16-2023-FINAL||888","GT-M-13-16|GT-M-13-16-2019-FINAL||548","GT-M-13-16|GT-M-13-16-2015-FINAL||209"],"shares":[[0.549332586577056,0.4457201530850369],[0.42058477026882296,0.31487629859697974],[0.5444466442288656,0.4424866363096417]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":47.96199880565661,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.2706991505647344,44.57201530850369,54.93325865770559,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.22402688322598713],[21.5593873835279,0,31.487629859697975,42.058477026882294,0,0,0,0,0.4605333618935418,0,0,4.433972367998287],[0.4157592555929519,0,0,0,0,44.24866363096417,54.444664422886554,0,0,0,0,0.8909126905563255]],"volatility_latest":68.0176441065113,"volatility_previous":98.69332805385072,"volatility_mean":83.35548608018101,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JAIME AUGUSTO HERNANDEZ GODINEZ","party":"TODOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-17","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"Santa Eulalia","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.9206990355288092,13.074797710676926,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-17|GT-M-13-17-2023-FINAL||889","GT-M-13-17|GT-M-13-17-2019-FINAL||549","GT-M-13-17|GT-M-13-17-2015-FINAL||210"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-17|GT-M-13-17-2023-FINAL||889","GT-M-13-17|GT-M-13-17-2019-FINAL||549","GT-M-13-17|GT-M-13-17-2015-FINAL||210"],"shares":[[0.3146484213997197,0.2954414310444316],[0.3675745016775212,0.23682652457075193],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[29.54414310444316,31.46484213997197,0,0,0.37095045750556427,0,0,0,0,0,0,38.620064298079306],[36.75745016775212,22.17288336293665,4.430629563844484,23.682652457075193,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.8847444247089007,11.071640023682653],null],"volatility_latest":37.211333508937535,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"DANIEL JUAN FRANCISCO","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":2,"Final source with documented extraction/source reconciliation limits":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-18","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"San Mateo Ixtatán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.74516361728638,2.4916184090216404,6.388188692833996],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-18|GT-M-13-18-2023-FINAL||890","GT-M-13-18|GT-M-13-18-2019-FINAL||550","GT-M-13-18|GT-M-13-18-2015-FINAL||211"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-18|GT-M-13-18-2023-FINAL||890","GT-M-13-18|GT-M-13-18-2019-FINAL||550","GT-M-13-18|GT-M-13-18-2015-FINAL||211"],"shares":[[0.43943865171486657,0.30198701554200275],[0.35416031697653155,0.32924413288631516],[0.3027007562117393,0.23881886928339935]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":51.8329871881914,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[17.292937241786348,43.94386517148666,0,0,30.198701554200277,0,0,0,0,0,0,8.564496032526725],[12.778116427918318,0,0,35.41603169765315,0,0,0,0,1.5544041450777202,0.33526363913441026,0,49.91618409021639],[14.043932301044292,0,12.142599927979834,4.1843716240547355,0,23.881886928339934,30.27007562117393,0,0,0,0,15.477133597407274]],"volatility_latest":78.65738753955496,"volatility_previous":67.56037835061967,"volatility_mean":73.10888294508732,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ANDRES SANTIZO GOMEZ","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-19","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"Colotenango","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.43646978021978,10.009884086620538,7.520109273030808],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-19|GT-M-13-19-2023-FINAL||891","GT-M-13-19|GT-M-13-19-2019-FINAL||551","GT-M-13-19|GT-M-13-19-2015-FINAL||212"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-19|GT-M-13-19-2023-FINAL||891","GT-M-13-19|GT-M-13-19-2019-FINAL||551","GT-M-13-19|GT-M-13-19-2015-FINAL||212"],"shares":[[0.4174107142857143,0.2430460164835165],[0.3893431575163986,0.2892443166501932],[0.37759902868417056,0.3023979359538625]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":28.915709892894448,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[41.74107142857143,24.30460164835165,8.276098901098901,0,0.4807692307692308,0,0,0,0,0,0,25.19745879120879],[28.92443166501932,6.451612903225806,8.230748494923173,38.93431575163986,0,0,0,0,5.355377841674904,0,0,12.103513343516939],[37.75990286841706,0,0,0.3414782212778874,0.2200637426013052,11.443314615267871,30.23979359538625,0,0,0,0,19.995446957049626]],"volatility_latest":44.28969359331476,"volatility_previous":58.630576770185854,"volatility_mean":51.4601351817503,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"RUDY VELASQUEZ LOPEZ","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-20","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"San Sebastián Huehuetenango","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.9061440390614415,2.0380536963224785,15.620473201352002],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-20|GT-M-13-20-2023-FINAL||892","GT-M-13-20|GT-M-13-20-2019-FINAL||552","GT-M-13-20|GT-M-13-20-2015-FINAL||213"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-20|GT-M-13-20-2023-FINAL||892","GT-M-13-20|GT-M-13-20-2019-FINAL||552","GT-M-13-20|GT-M-13-20-2015-FINAL||213"],"shares":[[0.33256476332564766,0.29350332293503323],[0.3430849063698579,0.3227043694066331],[0.42419121197489135,0.2679864799613713]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":77.41425073765595,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.5425200054252001,29.350332293503325,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,70.10714770107148],[32.27043694066331,0,0,34.30849063698579,0,0,0,0,18.936602241107018,0,12.769797698729036,1.714672482514853],[42.41912119748913,0,5.456301303718011,0,0,26.79864799613713,21.640109447931756,0,0,0,0,3.685820054723966]],"volatility_latest":97.74280751205995,"volatility_previous":66.01489057682184,"volatility_mean":81.8788490444409,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"FERNANDO ROMEO GREGORIO VELASQUEZ","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-21","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"Tectitán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[23.3125,14.692256783587027,9.26517571884984],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-21|GT-M-13-21-2023-FINAL||893","GT-M-13-21|GT-M-13-21-2019-FINAL||553","GT-M-13-21|GT-M-13-21-2015-FINAL||214"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-21|GT-M-13-21-2023-FINAL||893","GT-M-13-21|GT-M-13-21-2019-FINAL||553","GT-M-13-21|GT-M-13-21-2015-FINAL||214"],"shares":[[0.5895833333333333,0.3564583333333334],[0.4846679902934039,0.33774542245753364],[0.40460976722957553,0.31195801004107715]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":3.3915269651945357,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.5625,58.958333333333336,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,36.47916666666667],[16.30266931392014,0,0,1.455989410986102,0,0,0,0,33.774542245753366,0,0,48.46679902934039],[40.460976722957554,0,0,0,0,31.195801004107715,6.252852578731173,0,0,0,0,22.09036969420356]],"volatility_latest":58.958333333333336,"volatility_previous":61.6069609918763,"volatility_mean":60.28264716260482,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"DONY ROSSEMBERT ANGEL BORRAYES","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-22","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"Concepción Huista","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.056589499167803,5.548769848194034,20.229776145919697],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-22|GT-M-13-22-2023-FINAL||894","GT-M-13-22|GT-M-13-22-2019-FINAL||554","GT-M-13-22|GT-M-13-22-2015-FINAL||215"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-22|GT-M-13-22-2023-FINAL||894","GT-M-13-22|GT-M-13-22-2019-FINAL||554","GT-M-13-22|GT-M-13-22-2015-FINAL||215"],"shares":[[0.4015736117415646,0.26100771674988654],[0.38021287733379866,0.3247251788518583],[0.44924789766670614,0.24695013620750916]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":39.39218865724568,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[26.100771674988653,40.157361174156456,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,33.7418671508549],[32.47251788518583,0,0,21.217937532716803,0,0,0,0,38.021287733379864,0,0,8.288256848717502],[4.98637924908208,0,0,0.5329859054838327,11.240080540092384,44.924789766670614,24.695013620750917,0,0,0,0,13.62075091792017]],"volatility_latest":65.61097147629386,"volatility_previous":86.19237799671659,"volatility_mean":75.90167473650521,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"GABRIEL RAMIREZ VARGAS","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-23","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"San Juan Ixcoy","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.574814046012804,5.981092031641904,1.7446348618187422],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-23|GT-M-13-23-2023-FINAL||895","GT-M-13-23|GT-M-13-23-2019-FINAL||555","GT-M-13-23|GT-M-13-23-2015-FINAL||216"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-23|GT-M-13-23-2023-FINAL||895","GT-M-13-23|GT-M-13-23-2019-FINAL||555","GT-M-13-23|GT-M-13-23-2015-FINAL||216"],"shares":[[0.33489015741221245,0.1591420169520844],[0.22786031256029327,0.16804939224387422],[0.2053419793114096,0.18789563069322215]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":37.43160238358936,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[7.55924580522401,11.728074727555786,33.489015741221245,0,4.791558553883411,0,0,0,0,0,0,42.43210517211556],[13.10052093382211,0,15.512251591742235,4.649816708469998,0,0,0,0,0,0,7.158016592706926,59.57939417325873],[17.214759919715917,0,5.511811023622047,7.241006638876023,0,20.53419793114096,1.0807472595337348,0,0,0,0,48.41747722711131]],"volatility_latest":34.4963974309182,"volatility_previous":28.320374106974526,"volatility_mean":31.408385768946363,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JUAN ALBERTO PEREZ TERCERO","party":"TODOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-24","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"San Antonio Huista","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.729539866526167,11.040204211869817,7.05628424373236],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-24|GT-M-13-24-2023-FINAL||896","GT-M-13-24|GT-M-13-24-2019-FINAL||556","GT-M-13-24|GT-M-13-24-2015-FINAL||217"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-24|GT-M-13-24-2023-FINAL||896","GT-M-13-24|GT-M-13-24-2019-FINAL||556","GT-M-13-24|GT-M-13-24-2015-FINAL||217"],"shares":[[0.4293993677555321,0.33210396909027046],[0.3488619442671772,0.23845990214847906],[0.3415241573966462,0.2709613149593226]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":50.72293196075059,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[42.939936775553214,33.21039690902705,7.077625570776256,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,16.772040744643483],[11.67836630504148,0.9997872793022761,34.88619442671772,0.8934269304403318,0,0,0,23.845990214847905,7.700489257604765,1.3614124654328865,0,18.634333120612638],[34.15241573966462,0,17.28374564170679,0.46488460899883777,0,10.509712767723725,2.905528806242736,0,0,0,0,34.683712435663296]],"volatility_latest":63.47218010023651,"volatility_previous":51.93867032364026,"volatility_mean":57.70542521193838,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JUAN MANUEL ARMAS RAMOS","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-25","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"San Sebastián Coatán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.92085080274056,0.5656239178113793,6.558079725675093],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-25|GT-M-13-25-2023-FINAL||897","GT-M-13-25|GT-M-13-25-2019-FINAL||557","GT-M-13-25|GT-M-13-25-2015-FINAL||218"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-25|GT-M-13-25-2023-FINAL||897","GT-M-13-25|GT-M-13-25-2019-FINAL||557","GT-M-13-25|GT-M-13-25-2015-FINAL||218"],"shares":[[0.5296042540137028,0.4703957459862972],[0.49763361422140134,0.4919773750432876],[0.5305400771538791,0.4649592798971282]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":78.10997185222371,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[52.96042540137028,47.03957459862972,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[1.0389010735311093,0,0,49.763361422140136,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,49.19773750432876],[0.4500642948992713,0,0,0,0,53.05400771538791,46.49592798971282,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":98.96109892646889,"volatility_previous":99.54993570510074,"volatility_mean":99.25551731578481,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JUAN NICOLAS FELIPE","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-26","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"Barillas","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.3450002215231933,33.043525512144754,12.30528200537153],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-26|GT-M-13-26-2023-FINAL||898","GT-M-13-26|GT-M-13-26-2019-FINAL||558","GT-M-13-26|GT-M-13-26-2015-FINAL||219"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-26|GT-M-13-26-2023-FINAL||898","GT-M-13-26|GT-M-13-26-2019-FINAL||558","GT-M-13-26|GT-M-13-26-2015-FINAL||219"],"shares":[[0.2578529972088078,0.22440299499357583],[0.5079606585882737,0.17752540346682608],[0.29507609668755597,0.17202327663384065]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":34.24707006452753,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[22.440299499357582,25.785299720880776,0.15063577156528288,0,1.2538212750875017,0,0,0,0,0,0,50.36994373310886],[17.752540346682608,2.858229636472314,1.7225452371895886,2.4724229745150246,0,0,0,50.79606585882736,0.70640656414715,0.4292778351355757,0,23.262511547030382],[29.507609668755595,0,0.26857654431512984,1.5801253357206804,0,14.221128021486123,11.396598030438675,0,0,0,0,43.025962399283806]],"volatility_latest":55.97608269824942,"volatility_previous":57.13624622625121,"volatility_mean":56.556164462250315,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"GILBERTO FRANCISCO MANUEL","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-27","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"Aguacatán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[28.839614621705863,10.793357933579337,9.244007375537802],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-27|GT-M-13-27-2023-FINAL||899","GT-M-13-27|GT-M-13-27-2019-FINAL||559","GT-M-13-27|GT-M-13-27-2015-FINAL||220"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-27|GT-M-13-27-2023-FINAL||899","GT-M-13-27|GT-M-13-27-2019-FINAL||559","GT-M-13-27|GT-M-13-27-2015-FINAL||220"],"shares":[[0.46032870501558515,0.1719325587985265],[0.296509840098401,0.1885762607626076],[0.3779963122311002,0.2855562384757222]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[46.03287050155851,17.19325587985265,5.681496174553698,0,7.353357891754038,0,0,0,0,0,0,23.7390195522811],[18.85762607626076,2.990467404674047,4.8662361623616235,17.097170971709716,0,0,0,0,29.650984009840098,0,8.871463714637146,17.666051660516608],[28.555623847572217,0,5.451751690227413,0,0,37.79963122311002,25.64843269821758,0,0,0,0,2.544560540872772]],"volatility_latest":55.61961869618696,"volatility_previous":73.73157722050485,"volatility_mean":64.6755979583459,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MIRZA JUDITH ARREAGA MEZA","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-28","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"San Rafael Petzal","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.082101806239734,26.815642458100555,0.5152596115735264],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-28|GT-M-13-28-2023-FINAL||900","GT-M-13-28|GT-M-13-28-2019-FINAL||560","GT-M-13-28|GT-M-13-28-2015-FINAL||221"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-28|GT-M-13-28-2023-FINAL||900","GT-M-13-28|GT-M-13-28-2019-FINAL||560","GT-M-13-28|GT-M-13-28-2015-FINAL||221"],"shares":[[0.5891625615763547,0.38834154351395733],[0.6095164708148719,0.34136004623386634],[0.37950852160126836,0.3743559254855331]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.7553366174055829,38.83415435139573,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,60.410509031198686],[60.95164708148719,0.2889616644191871,0,34.13600462338663,0,0,0,0,3.4868040839915238,0,0.40454633018686187,0.7320362165286072],[37.950852160126836,0,0.4161712247324614,0,0.5548949663099485,18.747522790328972,3.3690051525961158,0,0,0,0,38.961553705905665]],"volatility_latest":98.22366550164662,"volatility_previous":61.31711162334456,"volatility_mean":79.77038856249558,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"KALINERY MORALES SALES","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-29","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"San Gaspar Ixchil","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[32.71735837624962,49.18265813788202,14.04631322364412],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-29|GT-M-13-29-2023-FINAL||901","GT-M-13-29|GT-M-13-29-2019-FINAL||561","GT-M-13-29|GT-M-13-29-2015-FINAL||222"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-29|GT-M-13-29-2023-FINAL||901","GT-M-13-29|GT-M-13-29-2019-FINAL||561","GT-M-13-29|GT-M-13-29-2015-FINAL||222"],"shares":[[0.5374129051802484,0.2102393214177522],[0.7196162046908315,0.22778962331201136],[0.3753808653260207,0.23491773308957953]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.2723417146319298,15.177219024538019,21.02393214177522,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,62.526507119054834],[22.778962331201136,1.7057569296375266,3.5536602700781805,71.96162046908316,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[22.059719683120047,0,13.711151736745887,1.2797074954296161,0,37.53808653260207,0.2742230347349177,0,0,0,0,25.13711151736746]],"volatility_latest":93.46824108565237,"volatility_previous":73.10691255137216,"volatility_mean":83.28757681851226,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JUAN RAMIREZ PEREZ","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-30","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"Santiago Chimaltenango","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.471628592483416,27.453769559032715,17.087634526685704],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-30|GT-M-13-30-2023-FINAL||902","GT-M-13-30|GT-M-13-30-2019-FINAL||562","GT-M-13-30|GT-M-13-30-2015-FINAL||223"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-30|GT-M-13-30-2023-FINAL||902","GT-M-13-30|GT-M-13-30-2019-FINAL||562","GT-M-13-30|GT-M-13-30-2015-FINAL||223"],"shares":[[0.3633014001473839,0.30858511422254975],[0.572038203617151,0.2975005080268238],[0.5809356468262684,0.4100593015594114]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":33.86064262065782,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[30.858511422254974,36.33014001473839,2.6160648489314666,0,2.7081798084008843,0,0,0,0,0,0,27.48710390567428],[57.203820361715096,0,0,4.877057508636456,0,0,0,0,29.75005080268238,0,0,8.169071326966064],[0.9005051614320229,0,0,0,0,41.00593015594114,58.09356468262684,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":60.97241725077896,"volatility_previous":99.09949483856798,"volatility_mean":80.03595604467347,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"FROYLAN ELIAS AGUILAR JIMENEZ","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-31","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"Santa Ana Huista","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.78292257903908,8.305369127516784,23.95906024656897],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-31|GT-M-13-31-2023-FINAL||903","GT-M-13-31|GT-M-13-31-2019-FINAL||563","GT-M-13-31|GT-M-13-31-2015-FINAL||224"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-31|GT-M-13-31-2023-FINAL||903","GT-M-13-31|GT-M-13-31-2019-FINAL||563","GT-M-13-31|GT-M-13-31-2015-FINAL||224"],"shares":[[0.3318396813542444,0.17401045556385364],[0.4242170022371365,0.34116331096196867],[0.5303558967201675,0.2907652942544778]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":28.213648448323102,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[12.845407020164302,33.18396813542444,3.061986557132188,0,6.870799103808813,0,0,0,0,17.401045556385363,0,26.63679362708489],[10.011185682326621,6.935123042505593,42.42170022371365,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,40.631991051454136],[1.4887183065829264,0,11.863224005582694,0,0,53.03558967201675,29.076529425447777,0,0,0,0,4.535938590369853]],"volatility_latest":53.35491109095071,"volatility_previous":82.11211909746453,"volatility_mean":67.73351509420762,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"FILOMENO HERNANDEZ HERRERA","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-32","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"Unión Cantinil","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.659513590844064,8.801062769843906,32.01144726083402],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-32|GT-M-13-32-2023-FINAL||904","GT-M-13-32|GT-M-13-32-2019-FINAL||564","GT-M-13-32|GT-M-13-32-2015-FINAL||225"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-32|GT-M-13-32-2023-FINAL||904","GT-M-13-32|GT-M-13-32-2019-FINAL||564","GT-M-13-32|GT-M-13-32-2015-FINAL||225"],"shares":[[0.3490701001430615,0.33247496423462086],[0.3517103952175357,0.26369976751909663],[0.4969337694194603,0.1768192968111202]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":65.81414144228494,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[11.444921316165951,33.24749642346209,4.0629470672389125,0,8.354792560801144,0,0,0,0,0,0,42.889842632331906],[35.17103952175357,0,2.0591165725672536,5.612753238126868,0,0,0,0,6.808369312520758,26.369976751909665,0,23.978744603121886],[13.491414554374488,0,0,0,0,49.693376941946035,17.68192968111202,0,0,0,0,19.13327882256746]],"volatility_latest":62.51721750814491,"volatility_previous":67.37530662305805,"volatility_mean":64.94626206560147,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"VICTOR BALDEMAR CANO MERIDA","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-13-33","country":"Guatemala","region":"Huehuetenango","name":"Petatán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":2,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":2,"years":[2023,2019],"gaps":[17.310140008485362,1.3041210224308806,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-13-33|GT-M-13-33-2023-FINAL||905","GT-M-13-33|GT-M-13-33-2019-FINAL||565"],"all_keys":["GT-M-13-33|GT-M-13-33-2023-FINAL||905","GT-M-13-33|GT-M-13-33-2019-FINAL||565"],"shares":[[0.4331777683495969,0.26007636826474334],[0.2853416797078769,0.27230046948356806],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[43.317776834959695,26.007636826474332,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,30.674586338565973],[27.230046948356808,0,0,21.544079290558162,0,0,0,0,19.61398017736046,0,0,31.61189358372457],null],"volatility_latest":42.09536671307722,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"SANTIAGO SALUCIO TOMAS","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":2},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-14-01","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quiché","name":"Santa Cruz Del Quiché","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.170515097690942,16.42648749005393,9.873362603868063],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-14-01|GT-M-14-01-2023-FINAL||906","GT-M-14-01|GT-M-14-01-2019-FINAL||566","GT-M-14-01|GT-M-14-01-2015-FINAL||226"],"all_keys":["GT-M-14-01|GT-M-14-01-2023-FINAL||906","GT-M-14-01|GT-M-14-01-2019-FINAL||566","GT-M-14-01|GT-M-14-01-2015-FINAL||226"],"shares":[[0.4194316163410302,0.27772646536412077],[0.36742993546105557,0.2031650605605163],[0.4097028194056388,0.31096919336695816]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":27.912042169912255,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[27.77264653641208,41.94316163410302,1.0266429840142095,0,10.35879218472469,0,0,0,0,0,0,18.898756660746002],[36.74299354610556,14.667138184068605,3.2490495977367164,0,8.655291309344886,0,0,0,0,0,3.3153567323844046,33.37017063035982],[5.53358249573642,0,5.1525817337348965,0,1.3208026416052832,31.096919336695816,40.97028194056388,0,0,0,0,15.925831851663704]],"volatility_latest":28.979524325414214,"volatility_previous":73.97073341325788,"volatility_mean":51.47512886933605,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"NERY ALFONSO RAMÍREZ REVOLORIO","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-14-02","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quiché","name":"Chiché","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.250960018070927,3.124599820719684,17.43002544529262],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-14-02|GT-M-14-02-2023-FINAL||907","GT-M-14-02|GT-M-14-02-2019-FINAL||567","GT-M-14-02|GT-M-14-02-2015-FINAL||227"],"all_keys":["GT-M-14-02|GT-M-14-02-2023-FINAL||907","GT-M-14-02|GT-M-14-02-2019-FINAL||567","GT-M-14-02|GT-M-14-02-2015-FINAL||227"],"shares":[[0.3547549130336571,0.2822453128529478],[0.2923549750288129,0.26110897682161605],[0.4731667823270877,0.29886652787416146]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":64.84520749206138,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[15.14569686017619,35.47549130336571,28.22453128529478,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,21.154280551163318],[25.43219362274299,26.110897682161607,0,0,0,0,0,0,5.1607119989755414,0,29.23549750288129,14.06069919323857],[47.31667823270877,0,0,0,0,29.886652787416146,10.58292852185982,0,0,0,0,12.213740458015266]],"volatility_latest":44.68270626442363,"volatility_previous":62.35406591924174,"volatility_mean":53.51838609183268,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MARCELO EFRAIN CUIN AGUILAR","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-14-03","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quiché","name":"Chinique","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.733752620545069,25.625853436504325,15.789473684210524],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-14-03|GT-M-14-03-2023-FINAL||908","GT-M-14-03|GT-M-14-03-2019-FINAL||568","GT-M-14-03|GT-M-14-03-2015-FINAL||228"],"all_keys":["GT-M-14-03|GT-M-14-03-2023-FINAL||908","GT-M-14-03|GT-M-14-03-2019-FINAL||568","GT-M-14-03|GT-M-14-03-2015-FINAL||228"],"shares":[[0.3389937106918239,0.23165618448637318],[0.4549385525716887,0.1986800182066454],[0.37886382623224724,0.22096908939014204]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":21.46522514150304,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[3.039832285115304,33.899371069182386,17.19077568134172,0,1.0482180293501049,0,0,0,0,0,0,44.821802935010496],[45.49385525716887,19.868001820664542,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,34.63814292216659],[18.60902255639098,0,22.096908939014202,2.965747702589808,18.441938178780283,37.886382623224726,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":42.45402297205357,"volatility_previous":81.39097744360902,"volatility_mean":61.92250020783129,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"CAMILO TAMUP TINIGUAR","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-14-04","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quiché","name":"Zacualpa","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.805777977067457,11.026851350305652,21.440997390547988],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-14-04|GT-M-14-04-2023-FINAL||909","GT-M-14-04|GT-M-14-04-2019-FINAL||569","GT-M-14-04|GT-M-14-04-2015-FINAL||229"],"all_keys":["GT-M-14-04|GT-M-14-04-2023-FINAL||909","GT-M-14-04|GT-M-14-04-2019-FINAL||569","GT-M-14-04|GT-M-14-04-2015-FINAL||229"],"shares":[[0.46954070847479346,0.35148292870411885],[0.42188346359204515,0.31161495008898865],[0.5189185271093071,0.3045085532038272]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":37.32189034806515,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.582922298379348,46.95407084747934,17.090513099737365,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,35.37249375440394],[31.161495008898864,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,3.52859243209781,65.30991255900332],[16.72223832995071,0,0,0,0,51.891852710930706,30.45085532038272,0,0,0,0,0.9350536387358654]],"volatility_latest":64.04458394721671,"volatility_previous":82.34270803131342,"volatility_mean":73.19364598926506,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"GENARO GRAVE HERNANDEZ","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-14-05","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quiché","name":"Chajul","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.126480341070586,5.119178161251224,7.1976860607409066],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-14-05|GT-M-14-05-2023-FINAL||910","GT-M-14-05|GT-M-14-05-2019-FINAL||570","GT-M-14-05|GT-M-14-05-2015-FINAL||230"],"all_keys":["GT-M-14-05|GT-M-14-05-2023-FINAL||910","GT-M-14-05|GT-M-14-05-2019-FINAL||570","GT-M-14-05|GT-M-14-05-2015-FINAL||230"],"shares":[[0.34596557713563875,0.3147007737249329],[0.3529751255266347,0.3017833439141225],[0.38452553120480587,0.3125486705973968]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":79.34294870454094,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[31.47007737249329,14.81656929312069,0,0,1.4316542975946103,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.28169903679141],[30.178334391412246,35.29751255266347,0,3.710971316442546,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,30.813181739481735],[31.25486705973968,0,0,2.313939259094449,0,27.350094560017798,38.45255312048059,0,0,0,0,0.6285460006674825]],"volatility_latest":24.191914575985326,"volatility_previous":66.87918034882581,"volatility_mean":45.53554746240557,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"GREGORIO BENJAMIN SOTO BARRIOS","party":"VALOR UNIONISTA","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-14-06","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quiché","name":"Chichicastenango","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.120316095697103,2.0045197076864376,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-14-06|GT-M-14-06-2023-FINAL||911","GT-M-14-06|GT-M-14-06-2019-FINAL||571","GT-M-14-06|GT-M-14-06-2015-FINAL||231"],"all_keys":["GT-M-14-06|GT-M-14-06-2023-FINAL||911","GT-M-14-06|GT-M-14-06-2019-FINAL||571","GT-M-14-06|GT-M-14-06-2015-FINAL||231"],"shares":[[0.33893447961443274,0.2477313186574617],[0.29510169342294484,0.2750564963460805],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[20.607007945812168,33.89344796144327,3.137076114801789,0,1.5717945377968825,0,0,0.4124875168251487,0,0,0,40.37818592332074],[29.510169342294486,27.505649634608048,0,0,0,0,0,0,2.9671587473952985,0,0,40.017022275702175],null],"volatility_latest":11.870320143877613,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JOSE TIRIQUIZ TINIGUAR","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":2,"Final source with documented extraction/source reconciliation limits":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-14-07","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quiché","name":"Patzité","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.483627204030228,20.087630603302998,5.9015324421258555],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-14-07|GT-M-14-07-2023-FINAL||912","GT-M-14-07|GT-M-14-07-2019-FINAL||572","GT-M-14-07|GT-M-14-07-2015-FINAL||232"],"all_keys":["GT-M-14-07|GT-M-14-07-2023-FINAL||912","GT-M-14-07|GT-M-14-07-2019-FINAL||572","GT-M-14-07|GT-M-14-07-2015-FINAL||232"],"shares":[[0.5437657430730478,0.39892947103274556],[0.5709470845972363,0.3700707785642063],[0.4225627649168569,0.36354744049559834]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":23.466906261891896,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.6297229219143576,54.376574307304786,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,44.99370277078086],[57.09470845972363,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,42.90529154027637],[16.824258232800783,0,0,0,0,36.354744049559834,42.25627649168569,0,0,0,0,4.564721225953701]],"volatility_latest":56.46498553780927,"volatility_previous":78.61102054124552,"volatility_mean":67.5380030395274,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MELCHOR AGUARE CALEL","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-14-08","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quiché","name":"San Antonio Ilotenango","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.803098214987813,8.940327033340417,41.50246305418719],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-14-08|GT-M-14-08-2023-FINAL||913","GT-M-14-08|GT-M-14-08-2019-FINAL||573","GT-M-14-08|GT-M-14-08-2015-FINAL||233"],"all_keys":["GT-M-14-08|GT-M-14-08-2023-FINAL||913","GT-M-14-08|GT-M-14-08-2019-FINAL||573","GT-M-14-08|GT-M-14-08-2015-FINAL||233"],"shares":[[0.5566564441299049,0.4386254619800268],[0.5424718623911658,0.45306859205776173],[0.6344417077175698,0.2194170771756979]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":30.428983277932343,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.4718093890068412,55.66564441299049,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,43.862546198002676],[54.24718623911659,45.30685920577617,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.14865151836908047,0,0,0.29730303673816094],[14.614121510673234,0,0,0,0,21.941707717569788,63.44417077175698,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":53.92402836847883,"volatility_previous":85.38587848932677,"volatility_mean":69.6549534289028,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JUAN YAT MORALES","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-14-09","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quiché","name":"San Pedro Jocopilas","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":2,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.408753096614369,22.944444444444443,11.108690917011543],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-14-09|GT-M-14-09-2023-FINAL||914","GT-M-14-09|GT-M-14-09-2019-FINAL||574","GT-M-14-09|GT-M-14-09-2015-FINAL||234"],"all_keys":["GT-M-14-09|GT-M-14-09-2023-FINAL||914","GT-M-14-09|GT-M-14-09-2019-FINAL||574","GT-M-14-09|GT-M-14-09-2015-FINAL||234"],"shares":[[0.3450041288191577,0.19091659785301401],[0.42166666666666663,0.1922222222222222],[0.3986059681986495,0.2875190590285341]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":13.80272858498447,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.947976878612717,11.907514450867051,19.091659785301403,0,34.50041288191577,0,0,0,0,0,0,31.552436003303054],[19.22222222222222,0,42.166666666666664,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,38.611111111111114],[28.75190590285341,0,0,0,3.114789806142453,39.86059681986495,26.181659769113484,0,0,0,0,2.0910477020257026]],"volatility_latest":46.407927332782826,"volatility_previous":78.68673007575208,"volatility_mean":62.54732870426746,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JOEL ELIAS VICENTE","party":"VIVA","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":2,"Final source with documented extraction/source reconciliation limits":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-14-10","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quiché","name":"Cunén","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.706390077609342,4.993312527864465,0.36302032913843263],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-14-10|GT-M-14-10-2023-FINAL||915","GT-M-14-10|GT-M-14-10-2019-FINAL||575","GT-M-14-10|GT-M-14-10-2015-FINAL||235"],"all_keys":["GT-M-14-10|GT-M-14-10-2023-FINAL||915","GT-M-14-10|GT-M-14-10-2019-FINAL||575","GT-M-14-10|GT-M-14-10-2015-FINAL||235"],"shares":[[0.38296946398781456,0.34590556321172117],[0.34792688363798485,0.29799375835934017],[0.27573410777670215,0.27210390448531785]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":81.20935081080606,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[12.076593892797563,38.29694639878146,0.6963081163414812,0,1.3345905563211722,0,0,0,0,0,0,47.59556103575832],[34.79268836379848,10.477039679001338,0,0,29.79937583593402,0,0,0,4.752563530985287,0,0,20.178332590280874],[22.983220393675378,0,1.9845111326234268,2.686350435624395,15.4243304291707,27.573410777670215,27.210390448531783,0,0,0,0,2.137786382704098]],"volatility_latest":55.933443281599054,"volatility_previous":59.454662794449824,"volatility_mean":57.694053038024435,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JOSÉ MANUEL CABRERA CANTO","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-14-11","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quiché","name":"San Juan Cotzal","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.7646098132500185,7.0113138987529915,6.5620998719590276],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-14-11|GT-M-14-11-2023-FINAL||916","GT-M-14-11|GT-M-14-11-2019-FINAL||576","GT-M-14-11|GT-M-14-11-2015-FINAL||236"],"all_keys":["GT-M-14-11|GT-M-14-11-2023-FINAL||916","GT-M-14-11|GT-M-14-11-2019-FINAL||576","GT-M-14-11|GT-M-14-11-2015-FINAL||236"],"shares":[[0.3746360860612086,0.32698998792870837],[0.34090346023618795,0.270790321248658],[0.398527528809219,0.3329065300896287]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":71.90814977614095,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.866292693318185,21.934246964425192,32.69899879287084,0,5.020237165376695,0,0,0,0,0,0.4544486260029823,39.025775758006105],[5.846890742422991,27.0790321248658,0,6.135931951441077,18.151787926335782,0,0,0,0,0,4.45123461887852,38.33512263605582],[23.255441741357235,0,0.3681177976952625,2.6488476312419973,0.3681177976952625,33.29065300896287,39.8527528809219,0,0,0,0,0.21606914212548015]],"volatility_latest":33.38965191482112,"volatility_previous":90.92007468651427,"volatility_mean":62.1548633006677,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JACINTO SAMBRANO MEDINA","party":"VALOR UNIONISTA","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-14-12","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quiché","name":"Joyabaj","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.5899893503727327,29.087671519849167,18.13095633208478],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-14-12|GT-M-14-12-2023-FINAL||917","GT-M-14-12|GT-M-14-12-2019-FINAL||577","GT-M-14-12|GT-M-14-12-2015-FINAL||237"],"all_keys":["GT-M-14-12|GT-M-14-12-2023-FINAL||917","GT-M-14-12|GT-M-14-12-2019-FINAL||577","GT-M-14-12|GT-M-14-12-2015-FINAL||237"],"shares":[[0.35395101171459,0.32805111821086264],[0.5800251387870535,0.28914842358856185],[0.5380494049594614,0.3567398416386136]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":39.53304650306567,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.161874334398296,35.395101171459,1.8359957401490947,0,1.3887113951011714,0,0,0,0,0,0,57.21831735889244],[58.00251387870535,2.1839321252749553,0,0,0,0,0,0,5.148214098669739,0,0.5289619775845815,34.13637791976537],[5.632734341662321,0,0.180171637191219,0,0.11853397183632829,53.80494049594614,35.67398416386136,0,0,0,0,4.589635389502631]],"volatility_latest":59.51781562056137,"volatility_previous":89.77763026883505,"volatility_mean":74.64772294469822,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MATEO VELASQUEZ RALIOS","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-14-13","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quiché","name":"Nebaj","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[23.79434884214999,0.8054190244103907,18.07637683446426],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-14-13|GT-M-14-13-2023-FINAL||918","GT-M-14-13|GT-M-14-13-2019-FINAL||578","GT-M-14-13|GT-M-14-13-2015-FINAL||238"],"all_keys":["GT-M-14-13|GT-M-14-13-2023-FINAL||918","GT-M-14-13|GT-M-14-13-2019-FINAL||578","GT-M-14-13|GT-M-14-13-2015-FINAL||238"],"shares":[[0.4327597195666029,0.19481623114510302],[0.24294742059394492,0.234893230349841],[0.38906422597443585,0.20830045762979327]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":18.37063651970231,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[43.27597195666029,19.481623114510302,12.332695984703633,0,5.350187663763189,0,0,0,0,0,0,19.55952128036258],[23.4893230349841,14.02255173268349,0,0,5.906406179009541,0,0,0,0,0,0,56.58171905332287],[38.90642259744359,0,20.830045762979328,5.026037557203725,3.6965441060438695,18.85750355057598,7.487770238283099,0,0,0,0,5.195676187470412]],"volatility_latest":37.57841628820664,"volatility_previous":67.61845667150162,"volatility_mean":52.59843647985413,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"RAMON RAYMUNDO CETO","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-14-14","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quiché","name":"San Andrés Sajcabajá","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.471049682480388,2.203791469194311,8.119834710743799],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-14-14|GT-M-14-14-2023-FINAL||919","GT-M-14-14|GT-M-14-14-2019-FINAL||579","GT-M-14-14|GT-M-14-14-2015-FINAL||239"],"all_keys":["GT-M-14-14|GT-M-14-14-2023-FINAL||919","GT-M-14-14|GT-M-14-14-2019-FINAL||579","GT-M-14-14|GT-M-14-14-2015-FINAL||239"],"shares":[[0.35113933507657824,0.2764288382517744],[0.25781990521327014,0.23578199052132703],[0.3667355371900826,0.2855371900826446]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":70.22124639339548,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[5.3791557713858795,35.113933507657826,7.433694434067987,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.07321628688831],[23.578199052132703,25.781990521327014,0,0,22.13270142180095,0,0,0,2.476303317535545,0,0,26.03080568720379],[36.67355371900826,0,1.725206611570248,0,2.0867768595041323,27.210743801652892,28.553719008264462,0,0,0,0,3.75]],"volatility_latest":42.80804802008332,"volatility_previous":70.58502408836317,"volatility_mean":56.696536054223245,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"PEDRO TIX GONZALES","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-14-15","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quiché","name":"Uspantán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[19.086696812370903,40.95698275283537,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-14-15|GT-M-14-15-2023-FINAL||920","GT-M-14-15|GT-M-14-15-2019-FINAL||580","GT-M-14-15|GT-M-14-15-2015-FINAL||240"],"all_keys":["GT-M-14-15|GT-M-14-15-2023-FINAL||920","GT-M-14-15|GT-M-14-15-2019-FINAL||580","GT-M-14-15|GT-M-14-15-2015-FINAL||240"],"shares":[[0.4384525205158265,0.24758555239211744],[0.5875444601033487,0.177974632574995],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[43.84525205158265,24.758555239211745,5.096857031206387,0,1.4123820688885167,0,0,7.8937084798749515,0,0,0.5694188578127617,16.42382627142299],[58.754446010334874,3.858801422723307,0,0,12.838064559425542,0,0,0,0,0,0,24.548688007516276],null],"volatility_latest":34.45973818538254,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JUAN MARTIN LUX VENTURA","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":2,"Final source with documented extraction/source reconciliation limits":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-14-16","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quiché","name":"Sacapulas","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.6676161262050826,18.48751418842225,1.741116026830312],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-14-16|GT-M-14-16-2023-FINAL||921","GT-M-14-16|GT-M-14-16-2019-FINAL||581","GT-M-14-16|GT-M-14-16-2015-FINAL||241"],"all_keys":["GT-M-14-16|GT-M-14-16-2023-FINAL||921","GT-M-14-16|GT-M-14-16-2019-FINAL||581","GT-M-14-16|GT-M-14-16-2015-FINAL||241"],"shares":[[0.4939745836985101,0.46729842243645925],[0.4428206583427923,0.2579455164585698],[0.29748822605965464,0.2800770657913515]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":63.395322325336224,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.7394829097283085,49.39745836985101,0.6134969325153374,0,2.2129710780017526,0,0,0,0,0,0,47.03659070990359],[44.28206583427923,1.7026106696935301,0.4611237230419977,1.6174801362088536,22.956867196367764,0,0,0,0,0,0,28.979852440408628],[19.95861281575567,0,5.187669473383759,28.00770657913515,0,11.973740545169116,29.74882260596546,0,0,0,0,5.1234479805908375]],"volatility_latest":65.90395917912578,"volatility_previous":72.83933534440264,"volatility_mean":69.37164726176421,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"AMILCAR GOMEZ CIPRIANO","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-14-17","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quiché","name":"San Bartolomé Jocotenango","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.753091116606427,4.633003643935453,2.5772219063862067],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-14-17|GT-M-14-17-2023-FINAL||925","GT-M-14-17|GT-M-14-17-2019-FINAL||582","GT-M-14-17|GT-M-14-17-2015-FINAL||242"],"all_keys":["GT-M-14-17|GT-M-14-17-2023-FINAL||925","GT-M-14-17|GT-M-14-17-2019-FINAL||582","GT-M-14-17|GT-M-14-17-2015-FINAL||242"],"shares":[[0.40041848963287047,0.26288757846680616],[0.41679680721846263,0.37046677077910806],[0.4390752321394732,0.4133030130756111]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":50.50261023108443,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[22.103861517976032,40.041848963287045,8.712193266121362,0,2.853338405934944,0,0,0,0,0,0,26.288757846680618],[37.04667707791081,41.67968072184626,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,21.27364220024293],[14.762175478491567,0,0,0,0,41.330301307561115,43.90752321394732,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":16.580647318493995,"volatility_previous":85.23782452150843,"volatility_mean":50.90923592000121,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JOAQUIN XOTOY TUM","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-08-20","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-14-18","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quiché","name":"Canillá","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.245244426263035,2.8073352954493984,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-14-18|GT-M-14-18-2023-FINAL||922","GT-M-14-18|GT-M-14-18-2019-FINAL||583","GT-M-14-18|GT-M-14-18-2015-FINAL||243"],"all_keys":["GT-M-14-18|GT-M-14-18-2023-FINAL||922","GT-M-14-18|GT-M-14-18-2019-FINAL||583","GT-M-14-18|GT-M-14-18-2015-FINAL||243"],"shares":[[0.450398854571487,0.35794641030885666],[0.4349105727869595,0.4068372198324655],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[7.50664757619145,35.794641030885664,0,0,3.252198813663326,0,0,0,0,0,0,53.44651257925957],[43.49105727869595,6.905139234774734,0,0,0,0,0,0,40.68372198324655,0,0,8.920081503282772],null],"volatility_latest":76.66813168575105,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"CATARINO GARCIA CRUZ","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":2,"Final source with documented extraction/source reconciliation limits":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-14-19","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quiché","name":"Chicamán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.169533990312338,9.751335799424577,3.391984359726294],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-14-19|GT-M-14-19-2023-FINAL||923","GT-M-14-19|GT-M-14-19-2019-FINAL||584","GT-M-14-19|GT-M-14-19-2015-FINAL||244"],"all_keys":["GT-M-14-19|GT-M-14-19-2023-FINAL||923","GT-M-14-19|GT-M-14-19-2019-FINAL||584","GT-M-14-19|GT-M-14-19-2015-FINAL||244"],"shares":[[0.45014197427760144,0.3984466343744781],[0.3993012741471434,0.30178791615289763],[0.3164222873900293,0.28250244379276634]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":68.16840215006297,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[45.014197427760145,39.84466343744781,1.6786370469350258,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,13.462502087857024],[39.93012741471434,13.995067817509248,4.798602548294287,0,3.01068639539663,0,0,0,3.01068639539663,0,0,35.25482942868886],[31.64222873900293,0,7.859237536656892,0,14.682306940371456,28.250244379276637,17.565982404692082,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":30.933665632984358,"volatility_previous":60.548482317306146,"volatility_mean":45.741073975145255,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"VICTOR MANUEL MUZ POP","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-14-20","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quiché","name":"Ixcán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.153675841594122,5.094869992972594,16.18951435847897],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-14-20|GT-M-14-20-2023-FINAL||924","GT-M-14-20|GT-M-14-20-2019-FINAL||585","GT-M-14-20|GT-M-14-20-2015-FINAL||245"],"all_keys":["GT-M-14-20|GT-M-14-20-2023-FINAL||924","GT-M-14-20|GT-M-14-20-2019-FINAL||585","GT-M-14-20|GT-M-14-20-2015-FINAL||245"],"shares":[[0.21431087405021887,0.19277411563427765],[0.3158819395643008,0.2649332396345748],[0.3663827171335734,0.20448757354878372]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":77.80191030651926,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[19.277411563427766,9.03235545715292,21.431087405021888,0,4.443214411513108,0,0,0,0,0,0,45.81593116288432],[31.58819395643008,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,14.028460997891777,54.38334504567814],[36.63827171335734,0,1.4929305348204092,3.2537103714762448,0.7113374901203127,10.011416527619215,11.451655396504787,0,0,0,0,36.440677966101696]],"volatility_latest":34.90665727368791,"volatility_previous":31.971128077468226,"volatility_mean":33.43889267557807,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ROBERTO SUB","party":"TODOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-14-21","country":"Guatemala","region":"Quiché","name":"Pachalum","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.8914285714285697,16.41751201281367,27.442877977637334],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-14-21|GT-M-14-21-2023-FINAL||926","GT-M-14-21|GT-M-14-21-2019-FINAL||586","GT-M-14-21|GT-M-14-21-2015-FINAL||246"],"all_keys":["GT-M-14-21|GT-M-14-21-2023-FINAL||926","GT-M-14-21|GT-M-14-21-2019-FINAL||586","GT-M-14-21|GT-M-14-21-2015-FINAL||246"],"shares":[[0.3753142857142857,0.3664],[0.3571809930592632,0.19300587293112653],[0.5179873602333496,0.2435585804569762]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":58.978007277675125,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[6.674285714285714,0,2.422857142857143,0,0.64,0,0,0,0,0,0,90.26285714285716],[18.473037907100906,35.71809930592632,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,45.80886278697277],[24.35585804569762,0,7.99708313077297,0,0,51.79873602333495,0,0,0,0,0,15.848322800194458]],"volatility_latest":47.516851498741524,"volatility_previous":65.67863929270463,"volatility_mean":56.59774539572308,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"FIDENCIO TELETOR CEBALLOS","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-15-01","country":"Guatemala","region":"Baja Verapaz","name":"Salamá","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.293520686963312,1.5940069843415579,19.8547707307165],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-15-01|GT-M-15-01-2023-FINAL||927","GT-M-15-01|GT-M-15-01-2019-FINAL||587","GT-M-15-01|GT-M-15-01-2015-FINAL||247"],"all_keys":["GT-M-15-01|GT-M-15-01-2023-FINAL||927","GT-M-15-01|GT-M-15-01-2019-FINAL||587","GT-M-15-01|GT-M-15-01-2015-FINAL||247"],"shares":[[0.2518865469685142,0.20895134009888106],[0.18198715782358907,0.16604708798017348],[0.4114152236835424,0.21286751637637738]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":74.80104209723947,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[8.623471246422065,25.18865469685142,11.933385376008326,0,0,0,0,1.6081186572989852,0,0,0,52.6463700234192],[18.198715782358907,4.855243888701138,16.60470879801735,0,0,0,0,0,16.537118395854456,0,13.906725245015208,29.897487890052947],[12.872594322855837,0,9.084446249936526,7.500126948661961,0,21.28675163763774,0,4.966231655918347,0,0,0,44.28984918498959]],"volatility_latest":44.69041159881552,"volatility_previous":48.14547153715469,"volatility_mean":46.41794156798511,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"VICTOR JORDAN DE LA CRUZ CRUZ","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-15-02","country":"Guatemala","region":"Baja Verapaz","name":"San Miguel Chicaj","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.591148041376968,8.539237003360348,15.821965548142988],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-15-02|GT-M-15-02-2023-FINAL||928","GT-M-15-02|GT-M-15-02-2019-FINAL||588","GT-M-15-02|GT-M-15-02-2015-FINAL||248"],"all_keys":["GT-M-15-02|GT-M-15-02-2023-FINAL||928","GT-M-15-02|GT-M-15-02-2019-FINAL||588","GT-M-15-02|GT-M-15-02-2015-FINAL||248"],"shares":[[0.45251822960827537,0.3266067491945057],[0.4266653488831785,0.34127297884957497],[0.46022104948720505,0.30200139400577514]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":41.506717596757085,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0.381549940647787,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,99.61845005935221],[3.2318640047440206,0.8005534690650327,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1383672662581538,0,0,95.82921525993278],[8.423777755650702,0,1.7922931395001493,0,0.667131335258389,30.200139400577516,0,4.928806133625411,0,0,0,53.987852235387834]],"volatility_latest":3.789234799419426,"volatility_previous":42.78028375986814,"volatility_mean":23.284759279643783,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"FERNANDO CALATE CUQUEJ","party":"COCIEES","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-15-03","country":"Guatemala","region":"Baja Verapaz","name":"Rabinal","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.098099799165762,2.964912280701757,25.8518239939827],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-15-03|GT-M-15-03-2023-FINAL||929","GT-M-15-03|GT-M-15-03-2019-FINAL||589","GT-M-15-03|GT-M-15-03-2015-FINAL||249"],"all_keys":["GT-M-15-03|GT-M-15-03-2023-FINAL||929","GT-M-15-03|GT-M-15-03-2019-FINAL||589","GT-M-15-03|GT-M-15-03-2015-FINAL||249"],"shares":[[0.368067356712498,0.3170863587208404],[0.22789473684210526,0.1982456140350877],[0.43828506957502816,0.1797668296352012]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":67.33242018445873,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[31.70863587208404,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,68.29136412791595],[8.921052631578947,19.82456140350877,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.45614035087719296,0,2.1403508771929824,68.6578947368421],[14.719819481007898,0,5.024445280180519,0,1.9631440391124484,43.82850695750282,17.97668296352012,0,0,0,0,16.487401278676195]],"volatility_latest":22.78758324050509,"volatility_previous":74.59154608974485,"volatility_mean":48.68956466512497,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"OCTAVIANO ALVARADO GARCIA","party":"COCIECH","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-15-04","country":"Guatemala","region":"Baja Verapaz","name":"Cubulco","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.207565238209241,0.5345687811831787,27.265908238529814],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-15-04|GT-M-15-04-2023-FINAL||930","GT-M-15-04|GT-M-15-04-2019-FINAL||590","GT-M-15-04|GT-M-15-04-2015-FINAL||250"],"all_keys":["GT-M-15-04|GT-M-15-04-2023-FINAL||930","GT-M-15-04|GT-M-15-04-2019-FINAL||590","GT-M-15-04|GT-M-15-04-2015-FINAL||250"],"shares":[[0.30320804405075413,0.2611323916686617],[0.2729864575908767,0.2676407697790449],[0.5668208526065758,0.29416177022127765]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":72.9424969943326,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[26.113239166866173,14.011252094804885,30.320804405075414,0,0.490782858510893,0,0,0,0,0,0,29.06392147474264],[8.987883107626514,26.76407697790449,27.29864575908767,0,0,0,0,0,1.4326443335709194,0.4775481111903065,0,35.0392017106201],[8.507313414176773,0,3.1441430178772345,1.7377172146518314,0.5125640705088136,56.68208526065758,29.416177022127766,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":20.63829756373829,"volatility_previous":88.348543567946,"volatility_mean":54.49342056584214,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"BAYRON YOBANI GONZALEZ GARCIA","party":"TODOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-15-05","country":"Guatemala","region":"Baja Verapaz","name":"Granados","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[31.69610799942553,5.918463717928539,6.0794638583054095],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-15-05|GT-M-15-05-2023-FINAL||931","GT-M-15-05|GT-M-15-05-2019-FINAL||591","GT-M-15-05|GT-M-15-05-2015-FINAL||251"],"all_keys":["GT-M-15-05|GT-M-15-05-2023-FINAL||931","GT-M-15-05|GT-M-15-05-2019-FINAL||591","GT-M-15-05|GT-M-15-05-2015-FINAL||251"],"shares":[[0.645267844319977,0.3283067643257217],[0.4089406579568708,0.3497560207775854],[0.3612573799265996,0.30046274134354556]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[32.83067643257217,64.5267844319977,0.674996409593566,0,1.9675427258365648,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[4.989768613253581,0.31481189988981584,34.97560207775854,0,0,0,0,0,0.3462930898787974,0,0,59.373524319219264],[3.9891495133237593,0,23.855114089676082,4.37210786660284,0,36.125737992659964,30.046274134354555,0,0,0,0,1.6116164033827989]],"volatility_latest":94.02042307726303,"volatility_previous":70.54411999361736,"volatility_mean":82.2822715354402,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MARVIN OVIDIO CANAHUI MARROQUIN","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-15-06","country":"Guatemala","region":"Baja Verapaz","name":"El Chol","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.22257317329964,4.809437386569872,3.3458896521161066],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-15-06|GT-M-15-06-2023-FINAL||932","GT-M-15-06|GT-M-15-06-2019-FINAL||592","GT-M-15-06|GT-M-15-06-2015-FINAL||252"],"all_keys":["GT-M-15-06|GT-M-15-06-2023-FINAL||932","GT-M-15-06|GT-M-15-06-2019-FINAL||592","GT-M-15-06|GT-M-15-06-2015-FINAL||252"],"shares":[[0.38766056011791955,0.31543482838492315],[0.3632032667876588,0.3151088929219601],[0.4241081320629293,0.3906492355417682]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":69.44517957418822,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[38.76605601179195,0.9475679090334808,0,0,0.3369130343230154,0,0,0,0,0,0,59.94946304485155],[36.32032667876588,5.671506352087114,22.391107078039926,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.247731397459165,34.36932849364791],[1.750498559716375,0,1.8391313981830268,0,0,39.06492355417682,42.41081320629293,0,0,0,0,14.934633281630845]],"volatility_latest":28.362776918552722,"volatility_previous":81.47573676046974,"volatility_mean":54.919256839511235,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ENRIQUE MILIAN PEREZ","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-15-07","country":"Guatemala","region":"Baja Verapaz","name":"San Jerónimo","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.5109451455060494,6.081358717983836,1.7530390275111998],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-15-07|GT-M-15-07-2023-FINAL||933","GT-M-15-07|GT-M-15-07-2019-FINAL||593","GT-M-15-07|GT-M-15-07-2015-FINAL||253"],"all_keys":["GT-M-15-07|GT-M-15-07-2023-FINAL||933","GT-M-15-07|GT-M-15-07-2019-FINAL||593","GT-M-15-07|GT-M-15-07-2015-FINAL||253"],"shares":[[0.23796033994334276,0.21285088848828226],[0.2257225037666073,0.16490891658676893],[0.3285988483685221,0.3110684580934101]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":82.4686069727505,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[13.816636621169199,23.796033994334277,21.285088848828227,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,41.1022405356683],[6.163539241199835,7.026434734967813,22.57225037666073,0,0,0,0,0,4.711683331050541,0.1780578003013286,7.108615258183811,52.23941925763594],[8.112603966730646,0,31.10684580934101,9.980806142034549,0,32.85988483685221,0,0,0,0,0,17.939859245041585]],"volatility_latest":24.422696639335825,"volatility_previous":53.32435113709785,"volatility_mean":38.87352388821684,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MOISES ROMAN CANAHUI MORENTE","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-15-08","country":"Guatemala","region":"Baja Verapaz","name":"Purulhá","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.797814207650273,21.51681537405628,2.6115960542190066],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-15-08|GT-M-15-08-2023-FINAL||934","GT-M-15-08|GT-M-15-08-2019-FINAL||594","GT-M-15-08|GT-M-15-08-2015-FINAL||254"],"all_keys":["GT-M-15-08|GT-M-15-08-2023-FINAL||934","GT-M-15-08|GT-M-15-08-2019-FINAL||594","GT-M-15-08|GT-M-15-08-2015-FINAL||254"],"shares":[[0.2565027322404372,0.15852459016393441],[0.42669869595058335,0.21153054221002057],[0.2423532751401604,0.21623731459797033]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":37.02553628885526,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[11.092896174863387,15.852459016393443,25.650273224043715,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,47.404371584699454],[42.66986959505834,7.240905971173644,2.3953328757721346,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,4.866163349347976,42.827728208647905],[21.623731459797032,0,4.698034206230927,1.1780569157618337,1.2064438293946491,17.41537151373217,24.23532751401604,0,0,0,0,29.643034561067346]],"volatility_latest":36.443136769542924,"volatility_previous":46.337901103363485,"volatility_mean":41.390518936453205,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"EDGAR FRANCISCO XOY CHON","party":"TODOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-16-01","country":"Guatemala","region":"Alta Verapaz","name":"Cobán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.1957290711384765,25.946401615401207,4.4077178554483645],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-16-01|GT-M-16-01-2023-FINAL||935","GT-M-16-01|GT-M-16-01-2019-FINAL||595","GT-M-16-01|GT-M-16-01-2015-FINAL||255"],"all_keys":["GT-M-16-01|GT-M-16-01-2023-FINAL||935","GT-M-16-01|GT-M-16-01-2019-FINAL||595","GT-M-16-01|GT-M-16-01-2015-FINAL||255"],"shares":[[0.3072186558364994,0.23526136512511464],[0.41778901762434084,0.15832500147032877],[0.3590858769571406,0.315008698402657]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":37.289351435758576,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[3.0099567666710336,23.526136512511464,0.5076640901349404,0,3.1819075068780296,0,0,1.1528887724354775,1.157801650727106,0,1.3494039041006158,66.11424079654134],[7.839792977709816,2.22117665510008,3.2484463526044425,1.3291772040228196,0,0,0,15.832500147032876,1.6840165460997079,1.0919641631868886,1.4036738614754258,65.34925209276794],[14.507354104064527,0,2.252095524276451,0.5045073541040646,0.7496441562549423,35.90858769571406,31.500869840265697,0,0,0,0,14.576941325320261]],"volatility_latest":25.251856068062807,"volatility_previous":74.82666281858941,"volatility_mean":50.03925944332611,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"FELIPE POP CUCUL","party":"VICTORIA","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-16-02","country":"Guatemala","region":"Alta Verapaz","name":"Santa Cruz Verapaz","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.773171149563133,17.631475667189953,0.05046936509538824],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-16-02|GT-M-16-02-2023-FINAL||936","GT-M-16-02|GT-M-16-02-2019-FINAL||596","GT-M-16-02|GT-M-16-02-2015-FINAL||256"],"all_keys":["GT-M-16-02|GT-M-16-02-2023-FINAL||936","GT-M-16-02|GT-M-16-02-2019-FINAL||596","GT-M-16-02|GT-M-16-02-2015-FINAL||256"],"shares":[[0.22965564502312832,0.211923933527497],[0.3944270015698587,0.2181122448979592],[0.29635611184011307,0.29585141818915917]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":68.20803836797798,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[5.87630632174062,9.585403460681857,2.2443035806064757,0,2.4584546856261777,0,0,0.6510193592598937,0,0,0,79.18451259208499],[6.043956043956044,1.314756671899529,39.44270015698587,0.8241758241758241,2.2762951334379906,0,0,8.967817896389326,13.706828885400315,0,0,27.423469387755105],[12.092459876854749,0,29.58514181891592,4.976279398405168,0,29.635611184011307,14.181891591803774,0,0,0,0,9.528616130009084]],"volatility_latest":60.21384954530039,"volatility_previous":54.01811018294313,"volatility_mean":57.11597986412176,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ROLANDO GUALIB CAAL","party":"VALOR","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-16-03","country":"Guatemala","region":"Alta Verapaz","name":"San Cristóbal Verapaz","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.010014604631753,8.213119932610297,13.22460109068875],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-16-03|GT-M-16-03-2023-FINAL||937","GT-M-16-03|GT-M-16-03-2019-FINAL||597","GT-M-16-03|GT-M-16-03-2015-FINAL||257"],"all_keys":["GT-M-16-03|GT-M-16-03-2023-FINAL||937","GT-M-16-03|GT-M-16-03-2019-FINAL||597","GT-M-16-03|GT-M-16-03-2015-FINAL||257"],"shares":[[0.2398080534112247,0.19970790736490718],[0.20806570495946086,0.1259345056333579],[0.31236113916380526,0.18011512825691778]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":69.03797574184492,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[3.538493636553307,23.98080534112247,0,0,0.89714166492802,0,0,0,0.2169831003546839,0,0.5049029835176299,70.8616732735239],[12.546067179109192,5.175318521638412,1.2635569127092765,2.2270190586501,1.9637780351690008,0,0,3.9644098136253554,9.292408128882805,4.275034221333052,1.5952406022954617,57.697167526587336],[18.011512825691778,0,6.574429408200364,1.0452433851747123,31.23611391638053,12.043021611795597,11.017976166431025,0,0,0,0,20.071702686325995]],"volatility_latest":31.969992566420615,"volatility_previous":63.10965180151182,"volatility_mean":47.53982218396622,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"CELSO GUE GUA","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-16-04","country":"Guatemala","region":"Alta Verapaz","name":"Tactic","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.368933398697386,0.838286846517299,2.4651905957543896],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-16-04|GT-M-16-04-2023-FINAL||938","GT-M-16-04|GT-M-16-04-2019-FINAL||598","GT-M-16-04|GT-M-16-04-2015-FINAL||258"],"all_keys":["GT-M-16-04|GT-M-16-04-2023-FINAL||938","GT-M-16-04|GT-M-16-04-2019-FINAL||598","GT-M-16-04|GT-M-16-04-2015-FINAL||258"],"shares":[[0.36094964633377685,0.277260312346803],[0.35939643347050754,0.35101356500533454],[0.3382028456212432,0.3135509396636993]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":72.4031742362547,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[14.559843126269346,27.7260312346803,0.7143357377967645,0,2.0799775894670494,0,0,0.5602633237621683,0,0,0,54.35954898802438],[35.101356500533456,2.0195092211553116,0,3.3455265965554033,0,0,0,0.472488949855205,15.523548239597622,0,0,43.537570492303004],[16.503081488244693,0,0.8749904892338127,12.280301301072814,0,33.82028456212432,0.9434680057825459,0,0,0,0,35.57787415354181]],"volatility_latest":39.41058821041714,"volatility_previous":44.57351776165809,"volatility_mean":41.99205298603761,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"EDIN ROLANDO GUERRERO MILIAN","party":"PPN","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-16-05","country":"Guatemala","region":"Alta Verapaz","name":"Tamahú","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.443476366804617,0.1642614103015383,11.610201751046823],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-16-05|GT-M-16-05-2023-FINAL||939","GT-M-16-05|GT-M-16-05-2019-FINAL||599","GT-M-16-05|GT-M-16-05-2015-FINAL||259"],"all_keys":["GT-M-16-05|GT-M-16-05-2023-FINAL||939","GT-M-16-05|GT-M-16-05-2019-FINAL||599","GT-M-16-05|GT-M-16-05-2015-FINAL||259"],"shares":[[0.37105205837508165,0.3266172947070355],[0.256717118385545,0.25507450428252965],[0.4665651567060018,0.35046313919553357]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":80.61807790861043,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-16-06|GT-M-16-06-2023-FINAL||940","GT-M-16-06|GT-M-16-06-2019-FINAL||600","GT-M-16-06|GT-M-16-06-2015-FINAL||260"],"all_keys":["GT-M-16-06|GT-M-16-06-2023-FINAL||940","GT-M-16-06|GT-M-16-06-2019-FINAL||600","GT-M-16-06|GT-M-16-06-2015-FINAL||260"],"shares":[[0.3022774327122153,0.22383252818035426],[0.29452008399376817,0.21039084196978933],[0.41934388371935066,0.34089519798954016]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":59.92470805035433,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[20.795951230733838,30.22774327122153,0,0,3.5771796641361857,0,0,0.29905682079595125,10.806303197607546,0,0,34.29376581550495],[29.45200839937682,0,3.651019440493125,0,0,0,0,0.7992955361376414,21.039084196978934,0,0,45.05859242701348],[41.934388371935064,0,0,0,0,22.896148882700537,34.089519798954015,0,0,0,0,1.0799429464103782]],"volatility_latest":33.804922935357716,"volatility_previous":69.4680486542128,"volatility_mean":51.63648579478526,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ROLANDO CAN MAQUIM","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-16-07","country":"Guatemala","region":"Alta Verapaz","name":"Panzós","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.2369569341680915,17.68617021276596,26.784483298865702],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-16-07|GT-M-16-07-2023-FINAL||941","GT-M-16-07|GT-M-16-07-2019-FINAL||601","GT-M-16-07|GT-M-16-07-2015-FINAL||261"],"all_keys":["GT-M-16-07|GT-M-16-07-2023-FINAL||941","GT-M-16-07|GT-M-16-07-2019-FINAL||601","GT-M-16-07|GT-M-16-07-2015-FINAL||261"],"shares":[[0.39333143616012145,0.33096186681844053],[0.32670454545454547,0.14984284332688588],[0.4767813498777966,0.20893651688913956]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":41.36763222891393,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[39.333143616012144,9.533295389869094,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,51.13356099411876],[32.67045454545455,14.984284332688588,3.7778046421663443,0.719294003868472,0.5137814313346228,0,0,6.775870406189555,2.6716634429400385,1.1665860735009672,1.885880077369439,34.83438104448742],[47.67813498777966,0,5.727893714357335,3.0958200162937897,3.5407658081092936,20.893651688913955,1.735915272294291,0,0,0,0,17.327818512251675]],"volatility_latest":22.961869020188935,"volatility_previous":44.990846864924336,"volatility_mean":33.97635794255663,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JORGE CHOC AC","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-16-08","country":"Guatemala","region":"Alta Verapaz","name":"Senahú","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.0559872484558674,6.3979706877113856,12.990455991516434],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-16-08|GT-M-16-08-2023-FINAL||942","GT-M-16-08|GT-M-16-08-2019-FINAL||602","GT-M-16-08|GT-M-16-08-2015-FINAL||262"],"all_keys":["GT-M-16-08|GT-M-16-08-2023-FINAL||942","GT-M-16-08|GT-M-16-08-2019-FINAL||602","GT-M-16-08|GT-M-16-08-2015-FINAL||262"],"shares":[[0.29929600850102944,0.28873613601647075],[0.3463923337091319,0.282412626832018],[0.34632378932484975,0.21641922940968542]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":80.7398542273071,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[28.873613601647076,12.429434814372053,0,0,0.34535432024971774,0,0,0.21916716477385934,0.9098758052732948,0,0,57.222554293684],[22.125140924464485,0,0.8978901594459655,0.8616524400064423,0,0,0,1.1314221291673376,28.241262683201803,0,0,46.742631663713965],[34.632378932484976,0,0.4683633792859668,7.197773064687168,0,17.6785083068222,21.64192294096854,0,0,0,0,18.381053375751147]],"volatility_latest":30.003184441774394,"volatility_previous":58.163789880491954,"volatility_mean":44.08348716113318,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ROLANDO MAQUIN CAAL","party":"PPN","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-16-09","country":"Guatemala","region":"Alta Verapaz","name":"San Pedro Carchá","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.653594771241835,29.159658630785525,12.999064403413971],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-16-09|GT-M-16-09-2023-FINAL||943","GT-M-16-09|GT-M-16-09-2019-FINAL||603","GT-M-16-09|GT-M-16-09-2015-FINAL||263"],"all_keys":["GT-M-16-09|GT-M-16-09-2023-FINAL||943","GT-M-16-09|GT-M-16-09-2019-FINAL||603","GT-M-16-09|GT-M-16-09-2015-FINAL||263"],"shares":[[0.33821895424836607,0.3016830065359477],[0.4415997009904691,0.15000311468261385],[0.36623832890993446,0.23624768487579476]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":38.800195538389225,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[33.821895424836605,15.665032679738562,0.6339869281045751,0,3.477124183006536,0,0,0.6143790849673203,1.3088235294117647,0,0,44.478758169934636],[14.78228368529247,1.4369069125189478,0.7122240910317905,0.6810772648933741,15.000311468261383,0,0,0.9676280653668058,4.798687680392034,0.5253431342012915,0.13496957993313816,60.96056811810876],[23.624768487579477,0,5.676589082160655,8.59412292593512,0,36.62383289099345,13.272105856070876,0,0,0,0,12.208580757260421]],"volatility_latest":33.26773750676375,"volatility_previous":71.61583420152193,"volatility_mean":52.44178585414284,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ERWIN ALFONSO CATUN MAQUIN","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-16-10","country":"Guatemala","region":"Alta Verapaz","name":"San Juan Chamelco","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.614876578882189,3.900960080848911,11.085780935213663],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-16-10|GT-M-16-10-2023-FINAL||944","GT-M-16-10|GT-M-16-10-2019-FINAL||604","GT-M-16-10|GT-M-16-10-2015-FINAL||264"],"all_keys":["GT-M-16-10|GT-M-16-10-2023-FINAL||944","GT-M-16-10|GT-M-16-10-2019-FINAL||604","GT-M-16-10|GT-M-16-10-2015-FINAL||264"],"shares":[[0.37666143812432923,0.3305126723355073],[0.4664982314300151,0.42748863062152603],[0.4402502385749126,0.32939242922277595]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":74.76103967447322,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[5.473458267976554,33.05126723355073,0,0,1.419962024271444,0,0,0.2311566086023281,0.32609592999257,0,0,59.49805993560636],[42.7488630621526,1.2885295603840323,0,0,0,0,0,3.117736230419404,46.64982314300151,0,0,6.195048004042445],[15.252889407273884,0,0,0,0.9436963206446825,32.93924292227759,44.025023857491256,0,0,0,0,6.839147492312586]],"volatility_latest":86.48571162900207,"volatility_previous":78.55206258868367,"volatility_mean":82.51888710884288,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ALVARO RENE GARCIA GARCIA","party":"PPN","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-16-11","country":"Guatemala","region":"Alta Verapaz","name":"Lanquín","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.213224368499258,0.4940489557601637,8.318547124517274],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-16-11|GT-M-16-11-2023-FINAL||945","GT-M-16-11|GT-M-16-11-2019-FINAL||605","GT-M-16-11|GT-M-16-11-2015-FINAL||265"],"all_keys":["GT-M-16-11|GT-M-16-11-2023-FINAL||945","GT-M-16-11|GT-M-16-11-2019-FINAL||605","GT-M-16-11|GT-M-16-11-2015-FINAL||265"],"shares":[[0.2213967310549777,0.18926448736998513],[0.17246799910172916,0.16752750954412754],[0.43367080680513515,0.3504853355599624]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":85.45997989860335,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[22.13967310549777,13.103640416047549,3.3432392273402676,0,1.3930163447251114,0,0,1.160846953937593,0,0,0,58.859583952451715],[12.519649674376824,1.0217830675948798,1.437233325847743,3.9523916460812933,17.246799910172918,0,0,16.752750954412754,14.731641589939366,0,0.819672131147541,31.51807770042668],[21.584385763490243,0,0,0,0,43.36708068051352,35.048533555996244,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":50.94939293309117,"volatility_previous":87.48035032562318,"volatility_mean":69.21487162935718,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"EDIN ROLANDO POP CHOC","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-16-12","country":"Guatemala","region":"Alta Verapaz","name":"Cahabón","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.5786905246034983,0.8455689564761428,2.6050420168067205],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-16-12|GT-M-16-12-2023-FINAL||946","GT-M-16-12|GT-M-16-12-2019-FINAL||606","GT-M-16-12|GT-M-16-12-2015-FINAL||266"],"all_keys":["GT-M-16-12|GT-M-16-12-2023-FINAL||946","GT-M-16-12|GT-M-16-12-2019-FINAL||606","GT-M-16-12|GT-M-16-12-2015-FINAL||266"],"shares":[[0.2597508225812415,0.22396391733520649],[0.2324331410592554,0.22397745149449397],[0.41542617046818725,0.38937575030012006]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":86.69305398307193,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[20.089467263115086,25.975082258124147,0.19963769455432734,0,7.881991940552331,0,0,0.040666937779585195,3.4382047395467485,0,2.2514695552515804,40.12347961107619],[11.523335081279496,3.8017829050865233,0,0,0,0,0,0,23.24331410592554,0,0,61.431567907708434],[41.54261704681873,0,1.3505402160864346,0,0,1.7226890756302522,0,0,0,0,0,55.38415366146459]],"volatility_latest":41.113197663011036,"volatility_previous":33.092511257255914,"volatility_mean":37.10285446013347,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ABRAHAM CHIQUIN MORALES","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-16-13","country":"Guatemala","region":"Alta Verapaz","name":"Chisec","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.9997659410840285,3.2302376888814877,14.896888087790913],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-16-13|GT-M-16-13-2023-FINAL||947","GT-M-16-13|GT-M-16-13-2019-FINAL||607","GT-M-16-13|GT-M-16-13-2015-FINAL||267"],"all_keys":["GT-M-16-13|GT-M-16-13-2023-FINAL||947","GT-M-16-13|GT-M-16-13-2019-FINAL||607","GT-M-16-13|GT-M-16-13-2015-FINAL||267"],"shares":[[0.30023071521717326,0.29023305580633296],[0.31540606918369896,0.2831036922948841],[0.3968085670359964,0.24783968615808724]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":84.70690159953023,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[7.867723275487344,2.6248035576955226,0,0,27.562109205202795,0,0,0,0,0,0,61.94536396161434],[19.023435873954128,0,0.17899512966740208,31.540606918369896,0,0,0,0.8450235191275028,6.044207634350414,0.10406693585314074,0,42.26366398867752],[39.68085670359964,0,0,24.783968615808725,0,2.2901977416105606,7.437841276573185,0,0,0,0,25.807135662407887]],"volatility_latest":49.868612735835136,"volatility_previous":30.38545984782926,"volatility_mean":40.1270362918322,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"LUIS FRANCISCO REYNALDO VASQUEZ POP","party":"PODEMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-16-14","country":"Guatemala","region":"Alta Verapaz","name":"Chahal","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.5089630133877954,3.320169665057776,18.217408325721],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-16-14|GT-M-16-14-2023-FINAL||948","GT-M-16-14|GT-M-16-14-2019-FINAL||608","GT-M-16-14|GT-M-16-14-2015-FINAL||268"],"all_keys":["GT-M-16-14|GT-M-16-14-2023-FINAL||948","GT-M-16-14|GT-M-16-14-2019-FINAL||608","GT-M-16-14|GT-M-16-14-2015-FINAL||268"],"shares":[[0.2756977535738598,0.26060812343998185],[0.21295890010238408,0.17975720345180635],[0.3653921440689025,0.18321806081169253]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":81.38415229938944,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[5.740866802813706,11.447696845926934,0,0,0,0,0,1.055139550714772,0,0,0,81.75629680054458],[17.975720345180633,15.767149334503436,1.4626298083954952,0,0,0,0,0.9214567792891619,7.225391253473746,21.29589001023841,0,35.35176246891912],[18.321806081169253,0,3.3276784549132192,3.2232806994649614,0,36.53921440689025,8.221323241550307,0,0,0,0,30.36669711601201]],"volatility_latest":46.538217103051075,"volatility_previous":50.19495273041186,"volatility_mean":48.36658491673147,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ANTONIO ARMANDO LIGORRIA SALGUERO","party":"AZUL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-16-15","country":"Guatemala","region":"Alta Verapaz","name":"Fray Bartolomé De Las Casas","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.809276234779041,1.4859790684668859,4.055155549517728],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-16-15|GT-M-16-15-2023-FINAL||949","GT-M-16-15|GT-M-16-15-2019-FINAL||609","GT-M-16-15|GT-M-16-15-2015-FINAL||269"],"all_keys":["GT-M-16-15|GT-M-16-15-2023-FINAL||949","GT-M-16-15|GT-M-16-15-2019-FINAL||609","GT-M-16-15|GT-M-16-15-2015-FINAL||269"],"shares":[[0.3169380216171843,0.15884525926939388],[0.1795957497802988,0.16473595909562996],[0.2962912647738079,0.2557397092786306]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":48.315624918203696,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[15.699822137091257,5.931043918456697,0,0,9.830346148583937,0,0,0,0,0,0,68.5387877958681],[16.473595909562995,1.8055444595350323,2.1890229288168093,0,0,0,0,1.8614684029719581,4.2821762403131745,0,0.5991851082527763,72.78900695054725],[29.62912647738079,0,2.173617714984377,1.1886971878820813,0,25.573970927863062,4.1910066567042525,0,0,0,0,37.24358103518544]],"volatility_latest":13.955845607505601,"volatility_previous":44.10920534026718,"volatility_mean":29.03252547388639,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"WALTHER ESTUARDO AYALA JUAREZ","party":"PHG","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-16-16","country":"Guatemala","region":"Alta Verapaz","name":"Santa Catalina La Tinta","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.2914507772020727,3.870529651425983,3.1928181108508937],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-16-16|GT-M-16-16-2023-FINAL||950","GT-M-16-16|GT-M-16-16-2019-FINAL||610","GT-M-16-16|GT-M-16-16-2015-FINAL||270"],"all_keys":["GT-M-16-16|GT-M-16-16-2023-FINAL||950","GT-M-16-16|GT-M-16-16-2019-FINAL||610","GT-M-16-16|GT-M-16-16-2015-FINAL||270"],"shares":[[0.27998704663212437,0.27707253886010363],[0.22740304813641163,0.1886977516221518],[0.3604215456674473,0.32849336455893835]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":91.72344413582935,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[27.998704663212436,27.707253886010363,0.08419689119170984,0,1.8588082901554404,0,0,0.34974093264248707,0.6994818652849741,0,0.9909326424870466,40.31088082901554],[22.740304813641163,2.240832956088728,0.6186811528595141,8.103214124038026,2.701071374679342,0,0,1.3279010110155425,6.382978723404255,18.86977516221518,0.9204768371812283,36.09476384487702],[32.849336455893834,0,2.2950819672131146,5.1209992193598755,3.676814988290398,36.04215456674473,2.240437158469945,0,0,0,0,17.775175644028103]],"volatility_latest":35.011393568937244,"volatility_previous":51.043767795432004,"volatility_mean":43.02758068218462,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"OSCAR NORBERTO GARCIA CHAMAN","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-16-17","country":"Guatemala","region":"Alta Verapaz","name":"Raxruhá","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.8471074380165291,8.819114335751816,14.596168925730929],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-16-17|GT-M-16-17-2023-FINAL||951","GT-M-16-17|GT-M-16-17-2019-FINAL||611","GT-M-16-17|GT-M-16-17-2015-FINAL||271"],"all_keys":["GT-M-16-17|GT-M-16-17-2023-FINAL||951","GT-M-16-17|GT-M-16-17-2019-FINAL||611","GT-M-16-17|GT-M-16-17-2015-FINAL||271"],"shares":[[0.28780991735537187,0.2793388429752066],[0.28571428571428575,0.19752314235676757],[0.34972555169709874,0.20376386243978942]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":76.93192171945722,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[28.78099173553719,10.258264462809917,1.0743801652892562,0,0.371900826446281,0,0,0.15495867768595042,2.799586776859504,0,0,56.55991735537191],[15.361521140855642,0,3.915436577433075,2.8521391043282462,0,0,0,17.400550412809608,10.795596697523143,0,0,49.67475606705029],[20.376386243978942,0,0,0,0,34.97255516970987,14.65217878346589,0,0,0,0,29.998879802845305]],"volatility_latest":30.934797172259362,"volatility_previous":54.63959905629906,"volatility_mean":42.787198114279214,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"RIGOBERTO CORLETO GREEN","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-17-01","country":"Guatemala","region":"Petén","name":"Flores","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.3663133097762064,20.557081208316987,1.0152284263959395],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-17-01|GT-M-17-01-2023-FINAL||952","GT-M-17-01|GT-M-17-01-2019-FINAL||612","GT-M-17-01|GT-M-17-01-2015-FINAL||272"],"all_keys":["GT-M-17-01|GT-M-17-01-2023-FINAL||952","GT-M-17-01|GT-M-17-01-2019-FINAL||612","GT-M-17-01|GT-M-17-01-2015-FINAL||272"],"shares":[[0.2519042010208088,0.23824106792304672],[0.42236171047469595,0.2167908983915261],[0.27633248730964466,0.2661802030456853]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":64.55782404499793,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[23.824106792304672,17.094621122889674,0.8794660384766392,0,2.7326266195524145,0,0,0,0,0,0,55.4691794267766],[21.67908983915261,42.2361710474696,0,0,0,0,0,19.96076892899176,0,0.8630835621812476,2.2440172616712437,13.016869360533544],[5.09993654822335,0,1.8242385786802031,2.7442893401015227,1.1897208121827412,27.633248730964468,14.165609137055837,0,0,0,0,47.34295685279188]],"volatility_latest":48.20941967742417,"volatility_previous":81.88319409124311,"volatility_mean":65.04630688433365,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"RAMON EDUARDO MÉNDEZ CHÁVEZ","party":"CAMBIO","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-17-02","country":"Guatemala","region":"Petén","name":"San José","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.36950767601906,5.744208187876865,18.042098229201475],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-17-02|GT-M-17-02-2023-FINAL||953","GT-M-17-02|GT-M-17-02-2019-FINAL||613","GT-M-17-02|GT-M-17-02-2015-FINAL||273"],"all_keys":["GT-M-17-02|GT-M-17-02-2023-FINAL||953","GT-M-17-02|GT-M-17-02-2019-FINAL||613","GT-M-17-02|GT-M-17-02-2015-FINAL||273"],"shares":[[0.49735309687665435,0.3136580201164637],[0.4506505871152015,0.39320850523643286],[0.4941530237220181,0.31373204143000333]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":27.254115575526782,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[49.735309687665435,31.365802011646373,3.3615669666490207,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.5823186871360508,14.955002646903122],[7.235798159314504,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.3490955252300857,0,4.062202475404633,0,88.35290384005077],[19.211493484797863,0,0,0,0,49.41530237220181,0,0,0,0,0,31.373204143000333]],"volatility_latest":77.80919919378238,"volatility_previous":61.39099769768516,"volatility_mean":69.60009844573376,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JULIAN TESUCUN TESUCUN","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-17-03","country":"Guatemala","region":"Petén","name":"San Benito","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.1499594704134,19.530976548827443,30.272482893450636],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-17-03|GT-M-17-03-2023-FINAL||954","GT-M-17-03|GT-M-17-03-2019-FINAL||614","GT-M-17-03|GT-M-17-03-2015-FINAL||274"],"all_keys":["GT-M-17-03|GT-M-17-03-2023-FINAL||954","GT-M-17-03|GT-M-17-03-2019-FINAL||614","GT-M-17-03|GT-M-17-03-2015-FINAL||274"],"shares":[[0.4657660091867063,0.4142664144825723],[0.4325049585812624,0.237195193092988],[0.5289589442815249,0.2262341153470186]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":40.11741531879333,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[41.42664144825723,46.57660091867063,0.4917589840583626,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,11.50499864901378],[43.25049585812624,2.549294131373235,0,0,0,0,0,3.6168475090421186,0,0,0,50.58336250145841],[3.9711632453567938,0,0,0,0,22.62341153470186,11.418621700879765,0,0,0,0,61.98680351906159]],"volatility_latest":44.519065771355756,"volatility_previous":45.445474253184805,"volatility_mean":44.98227001227028,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"CARLOS ANTONIO KUYLEN MORALES","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-17-04","country":"Guatemala","region":"Petén","name":"San Andrés","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.8159260094743956,3.710199676200755,14.017555705604323],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-17-04|GT-M-17-04-2023-FINAL||955","GT-M-17-04|GT-M-17-04-2019-FINAL||615","GT-M-17-04|GT-M-17-04-2015-FINAL||275"],"all_keys":["GT-M-17-04|GT-M-17-04-2023-FINAL||955","GT-M-17-04|GT-M-17-04-2019-FINAL||615","GT-M-17-04|GT-M-17-04-2015-FINAL||275"],"shares":[[0.3213399503722084,0.30318069027746447],[0.26821370750134915,0.2311117107393416],[0.41228899392302504,0.2721134368669818]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":81.97814460447353,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[30.318069027746446,26.59598466050079,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,43.08594631175276],[23.111171073934162,17.566109012412305,0,0,3.507825148407987,0,0,16.770102536427416,0,0.715056664867782,1.6055045871559632,36.724230976794395],[5.388251181634031,0,0,0,0,21.728561782579337,41.2288993923025,0,0,0,0,31.654287643484132]],"volatility_latest":22.59848893685914,"volatility_previous":62.95746117488184,"volatility_mean":42.77797505587049,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JONNE AXEL MENDEZ BARDALES","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-17-05","country":"Guatemala","region":"Petén","name":"La Libertad","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.408759124087595,17.887725975261652,15.674354060662132],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-17-05|GT-M-17-05-2023-FINAL||956","GT-M-17-05|GT-M-17-05-2019-FINAL||616","GT-M-17-05|GT-M-17-05-2015-FINAL||276"],"all_keys":["GT-M-17-05|GT-M-17-05-2023-FINAL||956","GT-M-17-05|GT-M-17-05-2019-FINAL||616","GT-M-17-05|GT-M-17-05-2015-FINAL||276"],"shares":[[0.38446715328467157,0.3003795620437956],[0.40913415794481445,0.2302568981921979],[0.5104737989823565,0.35373025837573513]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":40.10495663451368,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[30.03795620437956,14.592700729927007,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,55.369343065693435],[40.913415794481445,2.521408182683159,0,0,0,0,0,0.7815685741470708,0,2.317520728557836,1.141769743101808,52.32431697702869],[11.16764686446838,0,0,0,0,51.04737989823565,35.373025837573515,0,0,0,0,2.411947399722461]],"volatility_latest":15.116318635908597,"volatility_previous":86.42040573580915,"volatility_mean":50.76836218585888,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"YONY RANDULFO MALDONADO CALDERON","party":"CAMBIO","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-17-06","country":"Guatemala","region":"Petén","name":"San Francisco","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[31.812274368231048,30.616671831422376,0.4227972264501929],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-17-06|GT-M-17-06-2023-FINAL||957","GT-M-17-06|GT-M-17-06-2019-FINAL||617","GT-M-17-06|GT-M-17-06-2015-FINAL||277"],"all_keys":["GT-M-17-06|GT-M-17-06-2023-FINAL||957","GT-M-17-06|GT-M-17-06-2019-FINAL||617","GT-M-17-06|GT-M-17-06-2015-FINAL||277"],"shares":[[0.6345126353790613,0.3163898916967509],[0.6216299969011466,0.31546327858692286],[0.4892609504481651,0.48503297818366314]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[31.63898916967509,63.45126353790614,0,0,1.7184115523465704,0,0,0,0,0,0,3.191335740072202],[31.546327858692283,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,68.45367214130772],[48.926095044816506,0,0,0,0,48.50329781836631,0,0,0,0,0,2.5706071368171823]],"volatility_latest":65.26233640123552,"volatility_previous":65.88306500449053,"volatility_mean":65.57270070286302,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JUAN JOSÉ PAREDES GUZMAN","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-17-07","country":"Guatemala","region":"Petén","name":"Santa Ana","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.07363469012068,5.6855404773046345,16.453617919549664],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-17-07|GT-M-17-07-2023-FINAL||958","GT-M-17-07|GT-M-17-07-2019-FINAL||618","GT-M-17-07|GT-M-17-07-2015-FINAL||278"],"all_keys":["GT-M-17-07|GT-M-17-07-2023-FINAL||958","GT-M-17-07|GT-M-17-07-2019-FINAL||618","GT-M-17-07|GT-M-17-07-2015-FINAL||278"],"shares":[[0.3993659235017386,0.2986295766005318],[0.4976602714085166,0.44080486663547025],[0.5571713381024979,0.3926351589070013]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":53.02397625390618,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[3.54878298220495,29.86295766005318,3.272652894252403,0,19.48251176109634,0,0,0,0,0,0,43.83309470239313],[44.08048666354703,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.4038371548900328,54.51567618156294],[5.0193502990500765,0,0,0,0,55.71713381024979,39.26351589070013,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":52.61812231540192,"volatility_previous":94.98064970094993,"volatility_mean":73.79938600817593,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ELMER BLADIMIR GARCIA BARRIENTOS","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-17-08","country":"Guatemala","region":"Petén","name":"Dolores","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[33.837975268692944,7.262787973447871,30.928204515589535],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-17-08|GT-M-17-08-2023-FINAL||959","GT-M-17-08|GT-M-17-08-2019-FINAL||619","GT-M-17-08|GT-M-17-08-2015-FINAL||279"],"all_keys":["GT-M-17-08|GT-M-17-08-2023-FINAL||959","GT-M-17-08|GT-M-17-08-2019-FINAL||619","GT-M-17-08|GT-M-17-08-2015-FINAL||279"],"shares":[[0.640933780191841,0.3025540275049116],[0.40153585838865025,0.32890797865417154],[0.5367339624895472,0.2274519173336519]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.6988327747601988,30.25540275049116,0,0,3.952386455564544,0,0,0,0,0,0,64.0933780191841],[40.15358583886503,0,0,0,7.223740726278797,0,0,8.395158141351034,6.807236756475335,1.6399843811011323,0,35.78029415592867],[0,0,0,0,0,53.673396248954724,22.74519173336519,0,0,0,0,23.581412017680087]],"volatility_latest":58.568486613746586,"volatility_previous":76.4185879823199,"volatility_mean":67.49353729803325,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"FRANCISCO MORALES GUERRA","party":"VALOR UNIONISTA","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-17-09","country":"Guatemala","region":"Petén","name":"San Luis","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.712108279478109,3.6855036855036865,4.649073023079833],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-17-09|GT-M-17-09-2023-FINAL||960","GT-M-17-09|GT-M-17-09-2019-FINAL||620","GT-M-17-09|GT-M-17-09-2015-FINAL||280"],"all_keys":["GT-M-17-09|GT-M-17-09-2023-FINAL||960","GT-M-17-09|GT-M-17-09-2019-FINAL||620","GT-M-17-09|GT-M-17-09-2015-FINAL||280"],"shares":[[0.3518473356907694,0.24472625289598832],[0.2643188643188643,0.22746382746382746],[0.2563847900113507,0.20989405978055242]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":60.010883121770235,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[6.365077429581758,24.47262528959883,0,0,13.66906474820144,0,0,0,0,0,0,55.49323253261797],[20.62790062790063,0.7971607971607971,0,26.431886431886433,2.6644826644826645,0,0,22.746382746382746,4.297024297024297,1.0155610155610155,0,21.419601419601417],[20.98940597805524,0,0,3.8497919031403707,1.2438516836927733,25.638479001135074,9.454218690881573,0,0,0,0,38.824252743094966]],"volatility_latest":68.75367768917336,"volatility_previous":52.85885436566481,"volatility_mean":60.806266027419085,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"EFRAIN EUSEBIO OLIVA ESTRADA","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-17-10","country":"Guatemala","region":"Petén","name":"Sayaxché","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.4728973863520807,0.7999999999999972,13.27405185343904],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-17-10|GT-M-17-10-2023-FINAL||961","GT-M-17-10|GT-M-17-10-2019-FINAL||621","GT-M-17-10|GT-M-17-10-2015-FINAL||281"],"all_keys":["GT-M-17-10|GT-M-17-10-2023-FINAL||961","GT-M-17-10|GT-M-17-10-2019-FINAL||621","GT-M-17-10|GT-M-17-10-2015-FINAL||281"],"shares":[[0.2841452252618733,0.27941625139835247],[0.28806015037593985,0.28006015037593984],[0.37759802871223486,0.24485751017784443]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":90.74428191422425,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[21.239703040781045,27.94162513983525,8.29350147462626,0,7.144309976609376,0,0,0,0,0,0,35.38086036814808],[28.806015037593983,2.231578947368421,0,0,5.708270676691729,0,0,21.99699248120301,0,0.7879699248120301,3.0676691729323307,37.401503759398494],[37.759802871223485,0,3.4176130276408827,2.180201414184701,0,24.485751017784445,0,0,0,0,0,32.156631669166494]],"volatility_latest":35.439586967010726,"volatility_previous":39.037353293239526,"volatility_mean":37.23847013012512,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"LUIS EDUARDO AYALA PINEDA","party":"CABRA","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-17-11","country":"Guatemala","region":"Petén","name":"Melchor De Mencos","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[35.299501678022985,7.655880031570639,13.236060448150077],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-17-11|GT-M-17-11-2023-FINAL||962","GT-M-17-11|GT-M-17-11-2019-FINAL||622","GT-M-17-11|GT-M-17-11-2015-FINAL||282"],"all_keys":["GT-M-17-11|GT-M-17-11-2023-FINAL||962","GT-M-17-11|GT-M-17-11-2019-FINAL||622","GT-M-17-11|GT-M-17-11-2015-FINAL||282"],"shares":[[0.6177158547747381,0.2647208379945083],[0.2450107114669072,0.1684519111512008],[0.508598228243877,0.37623762376237624]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[8.888436896165972,26.47208379945083,0,0,61.77158547747381,0,0,0,0,0,0,2.8678938269093868],[24.50107114669072,14.7479986469726,0,1.172623745630849,0,0,0,12.752283233735483,5.772916901567257,1.2741008005412109,7.3401736385161795,32.438831886345696],[50.8598228243877,0,1.6779572694111515,0,0,37.62376237623762,2.365815528921313,0,0,0,0,7.472642001042209]],"volatility_latest":73.49567062995204,"volatility_previous":68.02628685226706,"volatility_mean":70.76097874110955,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JORGE ALBERTO RODRIGUEZ GRIJALVA","party":"VIVA","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-17-12","country":"Guatemala","region":"Petén","name":"Poptún","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[38.42468154727124,2.764263600176914,6.110774614711623],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-17-12|GT-M-17-12-2023-FINAL||963","GT-M-17-12|GT-M-17-12-2019-FINAL||623","GT-M-17-12|GT-M-17-12-2015-FINAL||283"],"all_keys":["GT-M-17-12|GT-M-17-12-2023-FINAL||963","GT-M-17-12|GT-M-17-12-2019-FINAL||623","GT-M-17-12|GT-M-17-12-2015-FINAL||283"],"shares":[[0.5434147481594017,0.15916793268668925],[0.2620521892967713,0.2344095532950022],[0.2086950669627835,0.14758732081566728]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[54.34147481594017,15.916793268668926,0,0,4.434965525300923,0,0,0,0,0,0,25.306766390089983],[16.674038036267138,1.6511867905056758,0,23.44095532950022,26.205218929677134,0,0,1.9018133569217162,0,3.899454518649565,0.7813651776500073,25.445967860828542],[20.86950669627835,0,0.7335621508849856,14.725082441617875,14.758732081566727,14.684702873679251,8.43932969917222,0,0,0,0,25.789084056800593]],"volatility_latest":51.933043257836275,"volatility_previous":28.396179579719718,"volatility_mean":40.164611418777994,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JOSE OBDULIO PINTO VIDES","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-17-13","country":"Guatemala","region":"Petén","name":"Las Cruces","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.98809796292058,24.51298701298701,4.218867116393618],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-17-13|GT-M-17-13-2023-FINAL||964","GT-M-17-13|GT-M-17-13-2019-FINAL||624","GT-M-17-13|GT-M-17-13-2015-FINAL||284"],"all_keys":["GT-M-17-13|GT-M-17-13-2023-FINAL||964","GT-M-17-13|GT-M-17-13-2019-FINAL||624","GT-M-17-13|GT-M-17-13-2015-FINAL||284"],"shares":[[0.3547722590981918,0.274891279468986],[0.48676323676323674,0.24163336663336665],[0.37744940571795693,0.3352607345540208]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":37.15679203356094,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[35.47722590981918,27.489127946898602,26.894026092927444,0,2.208743419546807,0,0,0,0,0,1.1100938429846647,6.820782787823301],[21.59090909090909,0,0,3.6213786213786214,48.676323676323676,0,0,0,0,0.586913086913087,0,25.524475524475527],[37.744940571795695,0,0,1.2742263625655852,19.884355926758754,33.52607345540208,0,0,0,0,0,7.570403683477888]],"volatility_latest":69.37956470172081,"volatility_previous":49.680104936288686,"volatility_mean":59.52983481900475,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"BYRON MISAEL SARCEÑO CASTILLO","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-17-14","country":"Guatemala","region":"Petén","name":"El Chal","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.075513741025006,2.0350334878928393,5.317404544389788],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-17-14|GT-M-17-14-2023-FINAL||965","GT-M-17-14|GT-M-17-14-2019-FINAL||625","GT-M-17-14|GT-M-17-14-2015-FINAL||285"],"all_keys":["GT-M-17-14|GT-M-17-14-2023-FINAL||965","GT-M-17-14|GT-M-17-14-2019-FINAL||625","GT-M-17-14|GT-M-17-14-2015-FINAL||285"],"shares":[[0.3847487001733102,0.33399356276306014],[0.2964966512107161,0.27614631633178777],[0.5265870227219489,0.47341297727805104]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":79.06220627289083,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[13.09730131220599,38.47487001733102,0,0,3.7633077494429314,0,0,0,0,0,0,44.664520921020056],[22.41112828438949,29.649665121071614,0,0,10.046367851622875,0,0,0,0,10.278207109737249,0,27.614631633178774],[0,0,0,0,0,47.341297727805106,0,0,0,0,0,52.658702272194894]],"volatility_latest":25.87509418410069,"volatility_previous":72.38536836682123,"volatility_mean":49.13023127546096,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ELIAS CALDERON ALVAREZ","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-18-01","country":"Guatemala","region":"Izabal","name":"Puerto Barrios","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.53644075526772,46.5038749621163,7.939013048502101],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-18-01|GT-M-18-01-2023-FINAL||966","GT-M-18-01|GT-M-18-01-2019-FINAL||626","GT-M-18-01|GT-M-18-01-2015-FINAL||286"],"all_keys":["GT-M-18-01|GT-M-18-01-2023-FINAL||966","GT-M-18-01|GT-M-18-01-2019-FINAL||626","GT-M-18-01|GT-M-18-01-2015-FINAL||286"],"shares":[[0.3705798291221989,0.23521542156952172],[0.66341949170888,0.198380742087717],[0.3155595637347462,0.2361694332497252]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.025662075465961,37.05798291221989,9.145915047584298,0,1.3834412721578644,0,0,0,0,0,1.815196570281857,46.57180212229012],[13.819976620340304,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,19.8380742087717,66.341949170888],[23.61694332497252,0,31.555956373474622,5.2024913338781955,2.4293323563396556,22.202181326268917,1.1808471662486262,0,0,0,0,13.812248118817463]],"volatility_latest":47.58733923196206,"volatility_previous":72.36777526084224,"volatility_mean":59.97755724640215,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"HUGO RENE SARCEÑO ORELLANA","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-18-02","country":"Guatemala","region":"Izabal","name":"Lívingston","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.1548146218633342,16.92987012987013,0.3834020868721204],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-18-02|GT-M-18-02-2023-FINAL||967","GT-M-18-02|GT-M-18-02-2019-FINAL||627","GT-M-18-02|GT-M-18-02-2015-FINAL||287"],"all_keys":["GT-M-18-02|GT-M-18-02-2023-FINAL||967","GT-M-18-02|GT-M-18-02-2019-FINAL||627","GT-M-18-02|GT-M-18-02-2015-FINAL||287"],"shares":[[0.24911001128766175,0.2375618650690284],[0.46036363636363636,0.2910649350649351],[0.2747391409851978,0.27090512011647655]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":70.94904989616873,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[18.251280715464098,23.75618650690284,5.109837631327602,0,0.8292089953981071,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.05348615090735],[29.106493506493507,0,0,46.03636363636364,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,24.857142857142858],[27.473914098519778,0,2.290706139286581,11.574860470759525,1.0531424411550594,25.707352584324195,1.8878912885222034,0,0,0,0,30.01213297743266]],"volatility_latest":56.89157642739304,"volatility_previous":36.09408257357784,"volatility_mean":46.49282950048544,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ENRIQUE XOL RAX","party":"CAMBIO","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-18-03","country":"Guatemala","region":"Izabal","name":"El Estor","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.276797046267447,7.108062431653245,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-18-03|GT-M-18-03-2023-FINAL||968","GT-M-18-03|GT-M-18-03-2019-FINAL||628","GT-M-18-03|GT-M-18-03-2015-FINAL||288"],"all_keys":["GT-M-18-03|GT-M-18-03-2023-FINAL||968","GT-M-18-03|GT-M-18-03-2019-FINAL||628","GT-M-18-03|GT-M-18-03-2015-FINAL||288"],"shares":[[0.365255182492981,0.33248721203030657],[0.2733870166020479,0.20230639228551545],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[33.248721203030655,36.5255182492981,2.27683550632668,0,1.7307026652821045,0,0,0,0,0,0,26.21822237606246],[27.33870166020479,0,19.097325777910328,6.511581668157868,0,0,0,20.230639228551546,0,0,6.650760512973457,20.170991152202006],null],"volatility_latest":50.21347168126652,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"GENARO ICO CHOLOM","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":2,"Final source with documented extraction/source reconciliation limits":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-18-04","country":"Guatemala","region":"Izabal","name":"Morales","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[21.148190768443932,7.514343883027948,4.697986577181208],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-18-04|GT-M-18-04-2023-FINAL||969","GT-M-18-04|GT-M-18-04-2019-FINAL||629","GT-M-18-04|GT-M-18-04-2015-FINAL||289"],"all_keys":["GT-M-18-04|GT-M-18-04-2023-FINAL||969","GT-M-18-04|GT-M-18-04-2019-FINAL||629","GT-M-18-04|GT-M-18-04-2015-FINAL||289"],"shares":[[0.39668840301751696,0.18520649533307762],[0.3422172866925782,0.2670738478622987],[0.29171302444101493,0.24473315866920287]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":22.93491858153568,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[15.905894386907045,39.66884030175169,18.52064953330776,0,3.567318757192175,0,0,0,0,0,0,22.337297020841326],[34.22172866925782,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,65.77827133074219],[14.144205577288878,0,19.215447008577684,2.616372967734989,0,24.473315866920288,29.171302444101496,0,0,0,0,10.379356135376664]],"volatility_latest":61.75680859225163,"volatility_previous":75.47643828733446,"volatility_mean":68.61662343979305,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MAYNOR DAVID PORTILLO VASQUEZ","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-18-05","country":"Guatemala","region":"Izabal","name":"Los Amates","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.571036752605597,21.492581166446307,6.1954679555583425],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-18-05|GT-M-18-05-2023-FINAL||970","GT-M-18-05|GT-M-18-05-2019-FINAL||630","GT-M-18-05|GT-M-18-05-2015-FINAL||290"],"all_keys":["GT-M-18-05|GT-M-18-05-2023-FINAL||970","GT-M-18-05|GT-M-18-05-2019-FINAL||630","GT-M-18-05|GT-M-18-05-2015-FINAL||290"],"shares":[[0.3548546352166758,0.3191442676906199],[0.45027177905097693,0.23534596738651387],[0.35283409704350005,0.2908794174879166]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":53.950284014734585,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[28.453099286889742,31.914426769061986,35.48546352166758,0,1.2890839275918815,0,0,0,0,0,0,2.8579264947888094],[45.027177905097695,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,54.97282209490231],[16.740945326721487,0,35.28340970435001,5.536375619860649,0.7909108028372356,29.087941748791664,3.490050844265897,0,0,0,0,9.07036595317306]],"volatility_latest":68.68897421832145,"volatility_previous":74.18868872010546,"volatility_mean":71.43883146921345,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MIGUEL AUGUSTO JORDAN CANALES","party":"TODOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-19-01","country":"Guatemala","region":"Zacapa","name":"Zacapa","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[31.658339738662566,2.740206041068049,2.776668884453315],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-19-01|GT-M-19-01-2023-FINAL||971","GT-M-19-01|GT-M-19-01-2019-FINAL||631","GT-M-19-01|GT-M-19-01-2015-FINAL||291"],"all_keys":["GT-M-19-01|GT-M-19-01-2023-FINAL||971","GT-M-19-01|GT-M-19-01-2019-FINAL||631","GT-M-19-01|GT-M-19-01-2015-FINAL||291"],"shares":[[0.5269984627209838,0.2104150653343582],[0.3345013665989207,0.3070993061882403],[0.23087159015302727,0.20310490130849412]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.7719062259800156,0,0,0,3.6654496541122215,0,0,0,0,0,3.6029976940814756,89.95964642582629],[14.71721914640129,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,85.28278085359871],[13.84342426258594,0,0,0,1.348414282546019,7.394100687513861,1.7121312929696164,0,0,0,0,75.70192947438457]],"volatility_latest":11.945312920421276,"volatility_previous":10.454646263029492,"volatility_mean":11.199979591725384,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"KAREN XIOMARA OVALLE MADRID","party":"CCER-19PAZ","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-19-02","country":"Guatemala","region":"Zacapa","name":"Estanzuela","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.32823320985666,1.0220548682087127,2.491772449459333],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-19-02|GT-M-19-02-2023-FINAL||972","GT-M-19-02|GT-M-19-02-2019-FINAL||632","GT-M-19-02|GT-M-19-02-2015-FINAL||292"],"all_keys":["GT-M-19-02|GT-M-19-02-2023-FINAL||972","GT-M-19-02|GT-M-19-02-2019-FINAL||632","GT-M-19-02|GT-M-19-02-2015-FINAL||292"],"shares":[[0.45740054759220483,0.27411821549363824],[0.5051102743410436,0.49488972565895645],[0.5124588622472966,0.48754113775270336]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":42.23633184338729,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.5300370430020938,27.411821549363825,19.95490417136415,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,51.103237236269926],[0,0,0,50.511027434104356,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,49.488972565895644],[0,0,51.24588622472967,0,0,48.75411377527033,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":50.511027434104356,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":75.25551371705218,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"LEANDRO RAFAEL MORALES ACEVEDO","party":"VALOR UNIONISTA","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-19-03","country":"Guatemala","region":"Zacapa","name":"Río Hondo","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.827341137123742,18.06849494816953,10.724914965986397],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-19-03|GT-M-19-03-2023-FINAL||973","GT-M-19-03|GT-M-19-03-2019-FINAL||633","GT-M-19-03|GT-M-19-03-2015-FINAL||293"],"all_keys":["GT-M-19-03|GT-M-19-03-2023-FINAL||973","GT-M-19-03|GT-M-19-03-2019-FINAL||633","GT-M-19-03|GT-M-19-03-2015-FINAL||293"],"shares":[[0.45704431438127086,0.31877090301003347],[0.5903424747408477,0.40965752525915233],[0.3611819727891157,0.2539328231292517]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":26.052776683381285,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.1705685618729098,0,0,0,10.482859531772576,0,0,0,0,0,0,88.34657190635451],[0,0,0,40.965752525915235,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,59.034247474084765],[17.378826530612244,0,0,0,3.50765306122449,25.39328231292517,0,0,0,0,0,53.7202380952381]],"volatility_latest":40.965752525915235,"volatility_previous":46.2797619047619,"volatility_mean":43.62275721533857,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"OSCAR ERNESTO MATA","party":"EL TUNO","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-19-04","country":"Guatemala","region":"Zacapa","name":"Gualán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.2565507384468795,27.04002079002079,2.54042928550426],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-19-04|GT-M-19-04-2023-FINAL||974","GT-M-19-04|GT-M-19-04-2019-FINAL||634","GT-M-19-04|GT-M-19-04-2015-FINAL||294"],"all_keys":["GT-M-19-04|GT-M-19-04-2023-FINAL||974","GT-M-19-04|GT-M-19-04-2019-FINAL||634","GT-M-19-04|GT-M-19-04-2015-FINAL||294"],"shares":[[0.2890662220104812,0.2765007146260124],[0.635200103950104,0.36479989604989604],[0.3554836812702146,0.33007938841517204]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":54.40010195687604,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[26.512625059552168,27.65007146260124,0,0,2.3106241067174844,0,0,0,0,0,0,43.526679371129106],[36.479989604989605,0,0,63.520010395010395,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[12.866803881211409,0,35.54836812702146,0,0,33.0079388415172,18.576889150249926,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":73.48737494044784,"volatility_previous":87.13319611878859,"volatility_mean":80.31028552961821,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"LUIS ALFREDO ORTEGA TOBAR","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-19-05","country":"Guatemala","region":"Zacapa","name":"Teculután","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[26.78024267679863,33.658027483040534,16.33893457275652],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-19-05|GT-M-19-05-2023-FINAL||975","GT-M-19-05|GT-M-19-05-2019-FINAL||635","GT-M-19-05|GT-M-19-05-2015-FINAL||295"],"all_keys":["GT-M-19-05|GT-M-19-05-2023-FINAL||975","GT-M-19-05|GT-M-19-05-2019-FINAL||635","GT-M-19-05|GT-M-19-05-2015-FINAL||295"],"shares":[[0.41169260938840546,0.14389018262041917],[0.6682901374152027,0.33170986258479734],[0.49684185436777495,0.33345250864020975]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[13.506557176124526,10.601789434979777,41.169260938840544,0,3.2724598602769945,0,0,0,0,0,0,31.449932589778157],null,[9.081158383982839,0,0,0,6.292456203074723,49.6841854367775,33.345250864020976,0,0,0,0,1.5969491121439638]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"CESAR AUGUSTO PAIZ GOMEZ","party":"TODOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-19-06","country":"Guatemala","region":"Zacapa","name":"Usumatlán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.457810012382804,7.921381774865992,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-19-06|GT-M-19-06-2023-FINAL||976","GT-M-19-06|GT-M-19-06-2019-FINAL||636","GT-M-19-06|GT-M-19-06-2015-FINAL||296"],"all_keys":["GT-M-19-06|GT-M-19-06-2023-FINAL||976","GT-M-19-06|GT-M-19-06-2019-FINAL||636","GT-M-19-06|GT-M-19-06-2015-FINAL||296"],"shares":[[0.2987794091632761,0.2542013090394481],[0.5396069088743299,0.46039309112567006],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.404740845568725,29.877940916327614,21.40456394834601,0,1.8043516716787547,0,0,0,0,0,0,42.508402618078904],[0,0,0,53.960690887432996,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,46.039309112567004],null],"volatility_latest":57.491597381921096,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ANDI NATANAEL PACHECO VASQUEZ","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":2,"Final source with documented extraction/source reconciliation limits":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-19-07","country":"Guatemala","region":"Zacapa","name":"Cabañas","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.576687116564415,3.721406623420961,7.8414839797639075],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-19-07|GT-M-19-07-2023-FINAL||977","GT-M-19-07|GT-M-19-07-2019-FINAL||637","GT-M-19-07|GT-M-19-07-2015-FINAL||297"],"all_keys":["GT-M-19-07|GT-M-19-07-2023-FINAL||977","GT-M-19-07|GT-M-19-07-2019-FINAL||637","GT-M-19-07|GT-M-19-07-2015-FINAL||297"],"shares":[[0.37622699386503067,0.3004601226993865],[0.40099009900990096,0.36377603277569137],[0.5040472175379427,0.42563237774030355]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":67.76708672529337,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[37.622699386503065,27.530674846625768,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,34.84662576687117],[23.523386821440766,0,0,40.0990099009901,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,36.377603277569136],[50.40472175379426,0,3.2715008431703203,1.5008431703204048,0,42.563237774030355,2.259696458684654,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":41.62998741168806,"volatility_previous":74.97577000823883,"volatility_mean":58.302878709963444,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JOSE HUMBERTO SANDOVAL CASTAÑEDA","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-19-08","country":"Guatemala","region":"Zacapa","name":"San Diego","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.753778644563624,3.025347506132462,50.137892995035855],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-19-08|GT-M-19-08-2023-FINAL||978","GT-M-19-08|GT-M-19-08-2019-FINAL||638","GT-M-19-08|GT-M-19-08-2015-FINAL||298"],"all_keys":["GT-M-19-08|GT-M-19-08-2023-FINAL||978","GT-M-19-08|GT-M-19-08-2019-FINAL||638","GT-M-19-08|GT-M-19-08-2015-FINAL||298"],"shares":[[0.4132130667966845,0.3656752803510483],[0.5151267375306623,0.4848732624693377],[0.7073910645339216,0.20601213458356316]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":56.131696309592506,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[10.6045831301804,41.32130667966845,10.750853242320819,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,37.32325694783033],null,[8.659680088251516,0,70.73910645339217,0,0,20.601213458356316,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"HUGO RENE VILLEDA PORTILLO","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-19-09","country":"Guatemala","region":"Zacapa","name":"La Unión","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":2,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.512820512820515,1.3329813910518666,26.37352334520908],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-19-09|GT-M-19-09-2023-FINAL||979","GT-M-19-09|GT-M-19-09-2019-FINAL||639","GT-M-19-09|GT-M-19-09-2015-FINAL||299"],"all_keys":["GT-M-19-09|GT-M-19-09-2023-FINAL||979","GT-M-19-09|GT-M-19-09-2019-FINAL||639","GT-M-19-09|GT-M-19-09-2015-FINAL||299"],"shares":[[0.45208280092001024,0.24695459579180512],[0.29101227398706614,0.27768246007654745],[0.6029439339958748,0.339208700543784]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":23.275304702356113,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[24.69545957918051,45.208280092001026,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,30.09626032881847],[0,29.101227398706612,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,70.89877260129339],[60.29439339958748,0,4.312769548096756,0,0,33.9208700543784,1.471966997937371,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":40.80251227247492,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":70.40125613623746,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"EDVIN GUSTAVO GALVAN","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":2,"Final source with documented extraction/source reconciliation limits":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-19-10","country":"Guatemala","region":"Zacapa","name":"Huité","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.6167568651032305,18.049792531120335,6.342721995269834],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-19-10|GT-M-19-10-2023-FINAL||980","GT-M-19-10|GT-M-19-10-2019-FINAL||640","GT-M-19-10|GT-M-19-10-2015-FINAL||300"],"all_keys":["GT-M-19-10|GT-M-19-10-2023-FINAL||980","GT-M-19-10|GT-M-19-10-2019-FINAL||640","GT-M-19-10|GT-M-19-10-2015-FINAL||300"],"shares":[[0.39126077370214474,0.31509320505111243],[0.4628630705394191,0.28236514522821576],[0.378843259514083,0.31541603956138464]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":46.903679610374894,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.109039887753057,31.509320505111244,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,64.3816396071357],[46.28630705394191,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,53.71369294605809],[31.541603956138466,0,0,0,0,30.574070092453237,37.8843259514083,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":42.177267166188855,"volatility_previous":68.45839604386154,"volatility_mean":55.3178316050252,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"LEONEL HUMBERTO PAZ LOPEZ","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-19-11","country":"Guatemala","region":"Zacapa","name":"San Jorge","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.938053097345133,1.691581431943355,4.769412692156088],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-19-11|GT-M-19-11-2023-FINAL||981","GT-M-19-11|GT-M-19-11-2019-FINAL||641","GT-M-19-11|GT-M-19-11-2015-FINAL||301"],"all_keys":["GT-M-19-11|GT-M-19-11-2023-FINAL||981","GT-M-19-11|GT-M-19-11-2019-FINAL||641","GT-M-19-11|GT-M-19-11-2015-FINAL||301"],"shares":[[0.38318584070796463,0.3338053097345133],[0.35326514555468136,0.3363493312352478],[0.39889633425305476,0.3512022073314939]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":80.26376221397152,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[33.38053097345133,38.31858407079646,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,28.300884955752213],[12.844217151848937,0,16.837136113296616,33.63493312352478,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,36.683713611329665],[4.473787938510052,0,39.889633425305476,1.73433188805676,0,35.12022073314939,0,0,0,0,0,18.78202601497832]],"volatility_latest":58.85489789239885,"volatility_previous":58.17271804515825,"volatility_mean":58.51380796877855,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"OSCAR DAVID TRUJILLO SANCHEZ","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-20-01","country":"Guatemala","region":"Chiquimula","name":"Chiquimula","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.866401701356203,10.353196884622351,40.99875315707024],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-20-01|GT-M-20-01-2023-FINAL||982","GT-M-20-01|GT-M-20-01-2019-FINAL||642","GT-M-20-01|GT-M-20-01-2015-FINAL||302"],"all_keys":["GT-M-20-01|GT-M-20-01-2023-FINAL||982","GT-M-20-01|GT-M-20-01-2019-FINAL||642","GT-M-20-01|GT-M-20-01-2015-FINAL||302"],"shares":[[0.19426140919708537,0.15559739218352334],[0.23564571635573267,0.13211374750950916],[0.5860161769877553,0.176028645417053]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":52.37162299046274,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[12.798521772478471,19.426140919708537,0.9029738869713768,0,1.1749119687619844,0,0,0,0,0,1.3910678799288778,64.30638357215075],[13.211374750950915,0,5.966310451005253,10.860351385618547,6.259735555153052,0,0,3.8507516754211193,0,0,0,59.85147618185111],[11.6723680424566,0,0,0,2.784615876466639,17.602864541705298,8.034144314076537,0,0,0,0,59.90600722529492]],"volatility_latest":25.27211618993705,"volatility_previous":25.691539899225646,"volatility_mean":25.48182804458135,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JOSÉ RENÉ PINTO ESPAÑA","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-20-02","country":"Guatemala","region":"Chiquimula","name":"San José La Arada","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.2066993464052302,9.21592279855247,1.605136436597114],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-20-02|GT-M-20-02-2023-FINAL||983","GT-M-20-02|GT-M-20-02-2019-FINAL||643","GT-M-20-02|GT-M-20-02-2015-FINAL||303"],"all_keys":["GT-M-20-02|GT-M-20-02-2023-FINAL||983","GT-M-20-02|GT-M-20-02-2019-FINAL||643","GT-M-20-02|GT-M-20-02-2015-FINAL||303"],"shares":[[0.4178921568627451,0.38582516339869277],[0.423642943305187,0.33148371531966225],[0.36230222426049075,0.3462508598945196]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":75.75344954465704,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[17.93300653594771,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,82.06699346405229],[18.93848009650181,42.364294330518696,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,38.69722557297949],[0,0,3.279064434762669,0,0,34.62508598945196,25.865627149736298,0,0,0,0,36.230222426049075]],"volatility_latest":43.3697678910728,"volatility_previous":63.769777573950925,"volatility_mean":53.569772732511865,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MELVIN LICINIO LEÓN VILLEDA","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-20-03","country":"Guatemala","region":"Chiquimula","name":"San Juan Ermita","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[25.746581077309514,20.5518018018018,12.856516015796402],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-20-03|GT-M-20-03-2023-FINAL||984","GT-M-20-03|GT-M-20-03-2019-FINAL||644","GT-M-20-03|GT-M-20-03-2015-FINAL||304"],"all_keys":["GT-M-20-03|GT-M-20-03-2023-FINAL||984","GT-M-20-03|GT-M-20-03-2019-FINAL||644","GT-M-20-03|GT-M-20-03-2015-FINAL||304"],"shares":[[0.604242255093497,0.3467764443204019],[0.5717905405405406,0.36627252252252257],[0.564282580078982,0.435717419921018]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[34.67764443204019,60.424225509349704,0.08372871895060005,0,3.6840636338264026,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.1303377058331008],[57.179054054054056,36.627252252252255,0.46452702702702703,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,5.729166666666667],[0,0,0,0,0,56.4282580078982,43.5717419921018,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":27.481036890923857,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":63.74051844546193,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"WILSON RUBEN GUERRA PORTILLO","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-20-04","country":"Guatemala","region":"Chiquimula","name":"Jocotán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.7475881078952575,4.765580772991612,17.124437943550575],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-20-04|GT-M-20-04-2023-FINAL||985","GT-M-20-04|GT-M-20-04-2019-FINAL||645","GT-M-20-04|GT-M-20-04-2015-FINAL||305"],"all_keys":["GT-M-20-04|GT-M-20-04-2023-FINAL||985","GT-M-20-04|GT-M-20-04-2019-FINAL||645","GT-M-20-04|GT-M-20-04-2015-FINAL||305"],"shares":[[0.39668241779877933,0.31920653671982674],[0.25999691215068704,0.21234110442077092],[0.4631345143290536,0.29189013489354787]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":61.046645545051526,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[39.66824177987793,31.920653671982674,0.6448119708604055,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,27.76629257727899],[25.999691215068705,6.499922803767176,0,14.183521177499872,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.4615820081313364,51.85528279553291],[22.579771385232135,0,1.9177636925077197,0,0,29.189013489354785,46.31345143290536,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":39.734093403885126,"volatility_previous":77.42022861476786,"volatility_mean":58.577161009326495,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"PETRONILO PÉREZ LÓPEZ","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-20-05","country":"Guatemala","region":"Chiquimula","name":"Camotán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.743253176520003,21.558270056124137,0.07343941248470287],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-20-05|GT-M-20-05-2023-FINAL||986","GT-M-20-05|GT-M-20-05-2019-FINAL||646","GT-M-20-05|GT-M-20-05-2015-FINAL||306"],"all_keys":["GT-M-20-05|GT-M-20-05-2023-FINAL||986","GT-M-20-05|GT-M-20-05-2019-FINAL||646","GT-M-20-05|GT-M-20-05-2015-FINAL||306"],"shares":[[0.41625538170744514,0.2688228499422451],[0.4365577198195224,0.22097501925828106],[0.3283965728274174,0.32766217870257036]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":23.39611568001143,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[17.935524519584163,41.62553817074451,1.0028352409954846,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,39.43610206867584],[22.097501925828105,9.678661824584571,43.65577198195224,0.7263123142951469,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,23.84175195333994],[32.83965728274174,0,0,6.009791921664626,0,28.384332925336597,32.76621787025704,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":47.54122646149584,"volatility_previous":77.17618575987674,"volatility_mean":62.35870611068629,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"NOE ROLANDO GUERRA GUERRA","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-20-06","country":"Guatemala","region":"Chiquimula","name":"Olopa","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.966791799018189,0.5215690535694897,5.9834568696959956],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-20-06|GT-M-20-06-2023-FINAL||987","GT-M-20-06|GT-M-20-06-2019-FINAL||647","GT-M-20-06|GT-M-20-06-2015-FINAL||307"],"all_keys":["GT-M-20-06|GT-M-20-06-2023-FINAL||987","GT-M-20-06|GT-M-20-06-2019-FINAL||647","GT-M-20-06|GT-M-20-06-2015-FINAL||307"],"shares":[[0.3398787178746751,0.2902107998844932],[0.24883190264044333,0.24361621210474843],[0.3750134278655065,0.31517885916854654]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":81.3255425877432,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[16.411589180864375,33.98787178746751,0.7315429781499663,0,4.601020309943209,0,0,0,0,0,0,44.26797574357494],[19.471911333260895,0,24.361621210474844,24.883190264044334,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,31.28327719221993],[37.50134278655065,0,3.856482973466538,1.514663229133097,0,31.517885916854656,25.60962509399506,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":51.57359064876573,"volatility_previous":75.15694246413948,"volatility_mean":63.3652665564526,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"OSCAR MEDARDO CARDONA NOGUERA","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-20-07","country":"Guatemala","region":"Chiquimula","name":"Esquipulas","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.21042787000233787,11.517525225703665,16.565140499115735],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-20-07|GT-M-20-07-2023-FINAL||988","GT-M-20-07|GT-M-20-07-2019-FINAL||648","GT-M-20-07|GT-M-20-07-2015-FINAL||308"],"all_keys":["GT-M-20-07|GT-M-20-07-2023-FINAL||988","GT-M-20-07|GT-M-20-07-2019-FINAL||648","GT-M-20-07|GT-M-20-07-2015-FINAL||308"],"shares":[[0.288578442833762,0.2864741641337386],[0.36570631970260226,0.2505310674455656],[0.4157332809327307,0.25008187594157333]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":73.80985830187963,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.039981295300444,18.628711713818095,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,79.33130699088146],[15.493892724375996,0,5.483271375464684,25.05310674455656,3.299256505576208,0,0,0,0,0,1.0953266064790228,49.57514604354753],[7.126481954542477,0,0,25.008187594157334,0,18.916617541101722,41.57332809327307,0,0,0,0,7.375384816925394]],"volatility_latest":48.38487266115202,"volatility_previous":60.48994563437479,"volatility_mean":54.437409147763404,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"CARLOS ALBERTO PORTILLO PALMA","party":"VALOR UNIONISTA","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-20-08","country":"Guatemala","region":"Chiquimula","name":"Concepción Las Minas","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[47.93128925009235,39.57752092467119,34.6524064171123],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-20-08|GT-M-20-08-2023-FINAL||989","GT-M-20-08|GT-M-20-08-2019-FINAL||649","GT-M-20-08|GT-M-20-08-2015-FINAL||309"],"all_keys":["GT-M-20-08|GT-M-20-08-2023-FINAL||989","GT-M-20-08|GT-M-20-08-2019-FINAL||649","GT-M-20-08|GT-M-20-08-2015-FINAL||309"],"shares":[[0.6817510158847432,0.20243812338381972],[0.6269430051813472,0.2311677959346353],[0.5655971479500892,0.21907308377896612]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.857776135943849,20.24381233838197,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,74.89841152567418],[23.11677959346353,2.5906735751295336,0,62.69430051813472,0,0,0,0,0,0,11.10003985651654,0.49820645675567954],[21.907308377896612,0,0,5.347593582887701,0,56.559714795008915,16.185383244206772,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":92.05334383217094,"volatility_previous":72.74509803921569,"volatility_mean":82.39922093569331,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"TELMO DE JESUS JAVIER GREGORIO","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-20-09","country":"Guatemala","region":"Chiquimula","name":"Quezaltepeque","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.35820895522388,3.1426912469153763,14.567937367381283],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-20-09|GT-M-20-09-2023-FINAL||990","GT-M-20-09|GT-M-20-09-2019-FINAL||650","GT-M-20-09|GT-M-20-09-2015-FINAL||310"],"all_keys":["GT-M-20-09|GT-M-20-09-2023-FINAL||990","GT-M-20-09|GT-M-20-09-2019-FINAL||650","GT-M-20-09|GT-M-20-09-2015-FINAL||310"],"shares":[[0.5487109905020353,0.4151289009497965],[0.46029902743504136,0.4288721149658876],[0.5481817516645936,0.4025023779907807]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":47.92736758026466,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[41.512890094979646,54.871099050203526,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,3.616010854816825],[46.02990274350414,0,42.88721149658876,0.3628973726230222,0,0,0,0,0,0,9.522427057628104,1.1975613296559733],[40.25023779907807,0,0,4.9315870344625745,0,54.818175166459355,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":57.28954857536438,"volatility_previous":59.386864828298904,"volatility_mean":58.33820670183164,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MILTON NAPOLEON DUARTE LARA","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-20-10","country":"Guatemala","region":"Chiquimula","name":"San Jacinto","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.240932642487046,46.304269824183706,10.215575839968928],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-20-10|GT-M-20-10-2023-FINAL||991","GT-M-20-10|GT-M-20-10-2019-FINAL||651","GT-M-20-10|GT-M-20-10-2015-FINAL||311"],"all_keys":["GT-M-20-10|GT-M-20-10-2023-FINAL||991","GT-M-20-10|GT-M-20-10-2019-FINAL||651","GT-M-20-10|GT-M-20-10-2015-FINAL||311"],"shares":[[0.5338406735751295,0.4114313471502591],[0.5909580193756727,0.12791532113383566],[0.3993008351136143,0.29714507671392504]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[41.14313471502591,53.384067357512954,0,0,0.37240932642487046,0,0,0,0,0,0,5.100388601036269],[59.09580193756727,11.428058844635808,2.99605310369573,12.791532113383566,2.2604951560818085,0,0,0,0,0,0,11.428058844635808],[29.714507671392504,0,0,4.1367255777820935,0,39.93008351136143,26.218683239463974,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":41.95600851287714,"volatility_previous":66.1487667508254,"volatility_mean":54.052387631851275,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ELDER CARDONA MARCOS","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-20-11","country":"Guatemala","region":"Chiquimula","name":"Ipala","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[31.74510034033564,47.53036437246964,61.505352610087186],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-20-11|GT-M-20-11-2023-FINAL||992","GT-M-20-11|GT-M-20-11-2019-FINAL||652","GT-M-20-11|GT-M-20-11-2015-FINAL||312"],"all_keys":["GT-M-20-11|GT-M-20-11-2023-FINAL||992","GT-M-20-11|GT-M-20-11-2019-FINAL||652","GT-M-20-11|GT-M-20-11-2015-FINAL||312"],"shares":[[0.5271681727496772,0.20971716934632084],[0.7376518218623482,0.2623481781376518],[0.7789427215539123,0.16388919545304048]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[16.242225090951766,20.971716934632084,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,62.78605797441615],null,[5.716808299304713,0,0,0,0,16.38891954530405,0,0,0,0,0,77.89427215539123]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"LUSVIN ELLIOANI JAVIER Y JAVIER","party":"CAMBIO","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-21-01","country":"Guatemala","region":"Jalapa","name":"Jalapa","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[19.337419337419337,7.883263635554766,19.996053085993392],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-21-01|GT-M-21-01-2023-FINAL||993","GT-M-21-01|GT-M-21-01-2019-FINAL||653","GT-M-21-01|GT-M-21-01-2015-FINAL||313"],"all_keys":["GT-M-21-01|GT-M-21-01-2023-FINAL||993","GT-M-21-01|GT-M-21-01-2019-FINAL||653","GT-M-21-01|GT-M-21-01-2015-FINAL||313"],"shares":[[0.3357723357723358,0.1423981423981424],[0.31850401874425366,0.239671382388706],[0.3755735359415857,0.17561300508165179]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":20.16481999141314,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[13.278613278613278,14.06971406971407,5.796905796905797,0,2.9025029025029023,0,0,0,0.6831006831006831,0,4.087804087804088,59.181359181359184],[31.850401874425366,3.2060978141590297,1.1418572233591364,23.9671382388706,1.6490197823056618,0,0,0,6.204585224070944,0.9223833674407569,7.524394222499036,23.534122252869473],[9.677339779959544,0,5.952439686220337,37.55735359415857,0.9743943953821106,5.614485174404263,3.083526567664907,0,0,0,0,37.14046080221028]],"volatility_latest":52.41938487778865,"volatility_previous":40.70514810955914,"volatility_mean":46.562266493673896,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"OMAR ESTUARDO CAMPOSECO DARDON","party":"VALOR","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-21-02","country":"Guatemala","region":"Jalapa","name":"San Pedro Pinula","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.3169937006733754,5.780913188320593,6.727272727272727],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-21-02|GT-M-21-02-2023-FINAL||994","GT-M-21-02|GT-M-21-02-2019-FINAL||654","GT-M-21-02|GT-M-21-02-2015-FINAL||314"],"all_keys":["GT-M-21-02|GT-M-21-02-2023-FINAL||994","GT-M-21-02|GT-M-21-02-2019-FINAL||654","GT-M-21-02|GT-M-21-02-2015-FINAL||314"],"shares":[[0.2267757584534067,0.20360582144667294],[0.3659938598210203,0.3081847279378144],[0.2752727272727273,0.20800000000000002]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":81.01401275186262,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[17.073347331836942,22.67757584534067,7.436101658098617,0,0.5937296357975527,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.219245528926216],[36.59938598210203,11.48997321836828,0,30.818472793781435,0,0,0,0,5.310601606897904,0.3853942125547064,4.481024234110654,10.91514795218499],[15.76969696969697,0,1.6848484848484848,18.563636363636363,0.7090909090909091,20.8,27.527272727272727,0,0,0,0,14.945454545454545]],"volatility_latest":60.521531497609786,"volatility_previous":54.751518714481676,"volatility_mean":57.63652510604573,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JOSE ROBERTO RAMIREZ GUERRA","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-21-03","country":"Guatemala","region":"Jalapa","name":"San Luis Jilotepeque","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.5881844131130514,12.52423093131058,15.39772727272727],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-21-03|GT-M-21-03-2023-FINAL||995","GT-M-21-03|GT-M-21-03-2019-FINAL||655","GT-M-21-03|GT-M-21-03-2015-FINAL||315"],"all_keys":["GT-M-21-03|GT-M-21-03-2023-FINAL||995","GT-M-21-03|GT-M-21-03-2019-FINAL||655","GT-M-21-03|GT-M-21-03-2015-FINAL||315"],"shares":[[0.2728137704350835,0.26693192630395296],[0.3794353139485883,0.2541930046354825],[0.45900974025974023,0.30503246753246754]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":71.75023672733134,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.29218925698469,10.111582043075858,0,0,0.18164518640256033,0,0,0,0,0,0,87.41458351353688],[25.41930046354825,3.775811209439528,0,18.314369995785924,5.242309313105773,0,0,0,2.427307206068268,0,0,44.820901812052256],[30.503246753246753,0,0,45.90097402597402,0,5.357142857142857,0.3977272727272727,0,0,0,0,17.840909090909093]],"volatility_latest":48.92945253512096,"volatility_previous":38.42542044975673,"volatility_mean":43.677436492438844,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JUAN DE LA CRUZ FELIPE DAMIAN","party":"CCC","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-21-04","country":"Guatemala","region":"Jalapa","name":"San Manuel Chaparrón","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.42065382117341,3.046241507779971,13.23264201983769],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-21-04|GT-M-21-04-2023-FINAL||996","GT-M-21-04|GT-M-21-04-2019-FINAL||656","GT-M-21-04|GT-M-21-04-2015-FINAL||316"],"all_keys":["GT-M-21-04|GT-M-21-04-2023-FINAL||996","GT-M-21-04|GT-M-21-04-2019-FINAL||656","GT-M-21-04|GT-M-21-04-2015-FINAL||316"],"shares":[[0.3647975752327344,0.33059103702100023],[0.2962962962962963,0.2658338812184966],[0.4542380522993688,0.3219116321009919]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":78.55235526489098,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.082485386447283,28.83741069495562,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,70.0801039185971],[29.62962962962963,0.591715976331361,0,26.58338812184966,0,0,0,0,20.271751040981812,0,0,22.92351523120754],[16.591523895401263,0,1.217312894499549,4.57619477006312,0,32.19116321009919,45.42380522993688,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":75.40228340601382,"volatility_previous":78.83228133453562,"volatility_mean":77.11728237027472,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"RICARDO ALBERTO SANDOVAL NORIEGA","party":"VALOR","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-21-05","country":"Guatemala","region":"Jalapa","name":"San Carlos Alzatate","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.928490093372808,4.874482086278331,10.16602809706258],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-21-05|GT-M-21-05-2023-FINAL||997","GT-M-21-05|GT-M-21-05-2019-FINAL||657","GT-M-21-05|GT-M-21-05-2015-FINAL||317"],"all_keys":["GT-M-21-05|GT-M-21-05-2023-FINAL||997","GT-M-21-05|GT-M-21-05-2019-FINAL||657","GT-M-21-05|GT-M-21-05-2015-FINAL||317"],"shares":[[0.45092234115235713,0.411637440218629],[0.3162320253473068,0.2674872044845235],[0.32464878671775227,0.22298850574712645]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":75.81979254193278,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.6852653154179003,45.09223411523571,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,53.222500569346394],[26.748720448452353,1.1455032902754083,0,31.623202534730684,0.7311723129417499,0,0,0,0.9627102120399708,0.6214964660004875,2.1569583231781624,36.010236412381175],[14.738186462324393,0,1.1366538952745848,9.66794380587484,0,32.464878671775224,22.298850574712645,0,0,0,0,19.693486590038315]],"volatility_latest":61.15899498192552,"volatility_previous":55.90038314176245,"volatility_mean":58.52968906184398,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"FREDI OMAR GARCIA GALIANO","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-21-06","country":"Guatemala","region":"Jalapa","name":"Monjas","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":2,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.156722086252007,11.757779646761986,11.671003864048572],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-21-06|GT-M-21-06-2023-FINAL||998","GT-M-21-06|GT-M-21-06-2019-FINAL||658","GT-M-21-06|GT-M-21-06-2015-FINAL||318"],"all_keys":["GT-M-21-06|GT-M-21-06-2023-FINAL||998","GT-M-21-06|GT-M-21-06-2019-FINAL||658","GT-M-21-06|GT-M-21-06-2015-FINAL||318"],"shares":[[0.25951557093425603,0.187948350071736],[0.3535744322960471,0.23599663582842725],[0.4919958993770207,0.375285860736535]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":55.05766233907672,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.219765381044814,25.951557093425606,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,3.291416997214955,66.53726052831463],[23.599663582842727,2.220353238015139,0,15.702270815811607,0,0,0,0,6.862910008410429,0,0,51.6148023549201],[2.7284914438924375,0,0,37.5285860736535,5.046920589858844,5.496411954893147,49.19958993770207,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":41.945079026019954,"volatility_previous":81.56923774029596,"volatility_mean":61.75715838315796,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JUAN ANTONIO ORELLANA CARDONA","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":2,"Final source with documented extraction/source reconciliation limits":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-21-07","country":"Guatemala","region":"Jalapa","name":"Mataquescuintla","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.278086287911147,30.70021881838074,5.669377541445101],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-21-07|GT-M-21-07-2023-FINAL||999","GT-M-21-07|GT-M-21-07-2019-FINAL||659","GT-M-21-07|GT-M-21-07-2015-FINAL||319"],"all_keys":["GT-M-21-07|GT-M-21-07-2023-FINAL||999","GT-M-21-07|GT-M-21-07-2019-FINAL||659","GT-M-21-07|GT-M-21-07-2015-FINAL||319"],"shares":[[0.4068346860316104,0.3140538231524989],[0.5221006564551423,0.2150984682713348],[0.3581482639974976,0.30145448858304663]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":23.280724137972896,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[40.68346860316104,15.019222554463905,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,44.29730884237505],[52.21006564551422,3.599562363238512,0,1.6958424507658643,3.665207877461707,0,0,0,5.809628008752735,0,0,33.01969365426696],[11.925242414763842,0,0,22.114482327181733,0,35.81482639974976,30.14544885830466,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":22.697275379333487,"volatility_previous":86.37891513447029,"volatility_mean":54.53809525690189,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"HECTOR FELIPE GUEVARRA PINEDA","party":"UNE","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-22-01","country":"Guatemala","region":"Jutiapa","name":"Jutiapa","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":2,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.191696399610766,7.943460702081392,10.951700659594515],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-22-01|GT-M-22-01-2023-FINAL||1000","GT-M-22-01|GT-M-22-01-2019-FINAL||660","GT-M-22-01|GT-M-22-01-2015-FINAL||320"],"all_keys":["GT-M-22-01|GT-M-22-01-2023-FINAL||1000","GT-M-22-01|GT-M-22-01-2019-FINAL||660","GT-M-22-01|GT-M-22-01-2015-FINAL||320"],"shares":[[0.26046059033409014,0.2285436263379825],[0.2421559490525008,0.16272134203168687],[0.29222772728654367,0.18271072069059852]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":73.03386941824836,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[9.208563087901394,22.85436263379825,8.812844631852093,0,1.2974375608173856,0,0,0,0,0,0,57.826792085630885],[16.272134203168687,4.7374961168064615,1.329605467536502,6.803355079217148,1.2146629388008698,0,0,0,14.877291084187636,8.971730351040696,0.8449829139484312,44.948741845293576],[12.194899541019485,0,8.766223897382899,18.27107206905985,1.863278519103924,11.246542448098726,29.222772728654366,0,0,0,0,18.43521079668075]],"volatility_latest":38.5609305436612,"volatility_previous":60.02226617674525,"volatility_mean":49.291598360203224,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"OSCAR EDILBERTO PINEDA BARAHONA","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":2,"Final source with documented extraction/source reconciliation limits":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-22-02","country":"Guatemala","region":"Jutiapa","name":"El Progreso","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[46.395697590236836,39.01479871675463,38.555871676640834],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-22-02|GT-M-22-02-2023-FINAL||1001","GT-M-22-02|GT-M-22-02-2019-FINAL||661","GT-M-22-02|GT-M-22-02-2015-FINAL||321"],"all_keys":["GT-M-22-02|GT-M-22-02-2023-FINAL||1001","GT-M-22-02|GT-M-22-02-2019-FINAL||661","GT-M-22-02|GT-M-22-02-2015-FINAL||321"],"shares":[[0.6527045195987174,0.18874754369634913],[0.6355169202111146,0.24536893304356824],[0.5989404493279702,0.21338173256156184]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.3134760575033613,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,98.68652394249663],[1.11766532132878,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,10.793749353202939,0,0,88.08858532546827],[2.3251250858432257,0,0,21.338173256156185,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,76.33670165800058]],"volatility_latest":10.79374935320294,"volatility_previous":22.545633020670632,"volatility_mean":16.669691186936788,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"MARVIN ENRIQUE ZEPEDA GONZALES","party":"COCIPROG","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-22-03","country":"Guatemala","region":"Jutiapa","name":"Santa Catarina Mita","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.7472600464961872,4.287548138639277,9.47789071323082],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-22-03|GT-M-22-03-2023-FINAL||1002","GT-M-22-03|GT-M-22-03-2019-FINAL||662","GT-M-22-03|GT-M-22-03-2015-FINAL||322"],"all_keys":["GT-M-22-03|GT-M-22-03-2023-FINAL||1002","GT-M-22-03|GT-M-22-03-2019-FINAL||662","GT-M-22-03|GT-M-22-03-2015-FINAL||322"],"shares":[[0.48223181667220194,0.4747592162072401],[0.36097560975609755,0.31810012836970475],[0.5037789940057337,0.40900008687342543]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":86.58795229593711,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.8053802723347725,47.47592162072401,1.0461640650946529,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,50.67253404184656],[2.772785622593068,1.0868635002139495,0,31.810012836970476,0,0,0,0,36.09756097560975,0,0,28.232777064612755],[2.0502128398922768,0,0,0,0,50.37789940057336,40.90000868734254,0,0,0,0,6.671879072191816]],"volatility_latest":69.87497916283851,"volatility_previous":91.2779080879159,"volatility_mean":80.57644362537721,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"GERSON DANIEL GARCIA CARRILLO","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-22-04","country":"Guatemala","region":"Jutiapa","name":"Agua Blanca","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.41920830629461,14.782608695652172,8.973752660203353],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-22-04|GT-M-22-04-2023-FINAL||1003","GT-M-22-04|GT-M-22-04-2019-FINAL||663","GT-M-22-04|GT-M-22-04-2015-FINAL||323"],"all_keys":["GT-M-22-04|GT-M-22-04-2023-FINAL||1003","GT-M-22-04|GT-M-22-04-2019-FINAL||663","GT-M-22-04|GT-M-22-04-2015-FINAL||323"],"shares":[[0.45399091499026606,0.30979883192731994],[0.5537549407114625,0.4059288537549407],[0.5355876093639158,0.44585008276188226]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":30.08158570753624,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.855288773523686,11.46009085009734,6.035042180402336,0,0,0,0,0,0.3504218040233614,0,0,79.29915639195328],[40.59288537549407,3.08300395256917,0,0,0,0,0,0,55.37549407114624,0,0.32938076416337286,0.619235836627141],[0.874911326554741,0,53.55876093639158,0,0,44.585008276188226,0.9813194608654529,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":93.09204963325664,"volatility_previous":99.12508867344526,"volatility_mean":96.10856915335094,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JULIO CESAR GUERRA CAMEROS","party":"PHG","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-22-05","country":"Guatemala","region":"Jutiapa","name":"Asunción Mita","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[22.69734959070353,18.03770865858052,8.084843029143691],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-22-05|GT-M-22-05-2023-FINAL||1004","GT-M-22-05|GT-M-22-05-2019-FINAL||664","GT-M-22-05|GT-M-22-05-2015-FINAL||324"],"all_keys":["GT-M-22-05|GT-M-22-05-2023-FINAL||1004","GT-M-22-05|GT-M-22-05-2019-FINAL||664","GT-M-22-05|GT-M-22-05-2015-FINAL||324"],"shares":[[0.4478218558589501,0.22084835995191482],[0.5129698570913894,0.3325927705055842],[0.39180825925509166,0.31095982896365476]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":0.8089667254467914,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.3756368424065486,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,97.62436315759346],[33.259277050558424,2.065569833073136,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,5.740362675633482,58.93479044073496],[20.2430516484753,0,6.9652301113986725,1.800382581298526,0,31.095982896365477,39.18082592550917,0,0,0,0,0.7145268369528525]],"volatility_latest":38.6895727168585,"volatility_previous":79.04242151457184,"volatility_mean":58.865997115715174,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"RENE FRANCISCO GUARDADO LEMUS","party":"COCIMI","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-22-06","country":"Guatemala","region":"Jutiapa","name":"Yupiltepeque","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[19.238237490664673,18.051791629027406,11.494789236273135],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-22-06|GT-M-22-06-2023-FINAL||1005","GT-M-22-06|GT-M-22-06-2019-FINAL||665","GT-M-22-06|GT-M-22-06-2015-FINAL||325"],"all_keys":["GT-M-22-06|GT-M-22-06-2023-FINAL||1005","GT-M-22-06|GT-M-22-06-2019-FINAL||665","GT-M-22-06|GT-M-22-06-2015-FINAL||325"],"shares":[[0.47991038088125465,0.2875280059746079],[0.42637759710930445,0.2458596808190304],[0.44641468346554675,0.3314667911028154]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":9.460205466328308,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[3.8685586258401794,47.991038088125464,28.75280059746079,0,0.6422703510082151,0,0,0,0,0,0,18.745332337565344],[42.637759710930446,24.58596808190304,0,15.913881361035832,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,16.862390846130683],[21.496344688131902,0,0,0,0,44.641468346554674,33.14667911028154,0,0,0,0,0.7155078550318867]],"volatility_latest":54.68308244612609,"volatility_previous":77.78814745683621,"volatility_mean":66.23561495148115,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"CARLOS ANIBAL GODOY TORRES","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-22-07","country":"Guatemala","region":"Jutiapa","name":"Atescatempa","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.9645301804604856,4.564225168441638,0.9534368070953434],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. 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The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-22-07|GT-M-22-07-2023-FINAL||1006","GT-M-22-07|GT-M-22-07-2019-FINAL||666","GT-M-22-07|GT-M-22-07-2015-FINAL||326"],"all_keys":["GT-M-22-07|GT-M-22-07-2023-FINAL||1006","GT-M-22-07|GT-M-22-07-2019-FINAL||666","GT-M-22-07|GT-M-22-07-2015-FINAL||326"],"shares":[[0.3717071147064924,0.3620618129018876],[0.4770702021299717,0.4314279504455553],[0.357760532150776,0.3482261640798226]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":89.78335330240841,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.8400746733042938,36.20618129018876,37.170711470649245,0,0,0,0,0,0.09334163036714374,0,0,25.68969093549056],[43.142795044555534,2.6624646815909583,0,47.70702021299717,0,0,0,0,2.5755270593349273,0,2.4342534231688764,1.4779395783525322],[7.738359201773836,0,0,20.73170731707317,0,34.82261640798226,35.7760532150776,0,0,0,0,0.9312638580931264]],"volatility_latest":94.92617943638507,"volatility_previous":70.59866962305986,"volatility_mean":82.76242452972247,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JUAN CARLOS RODRIGUEZ QUIÑONEZ","party":"TODOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-22-08","country":"Guatemala","region":"Jutiapa","name":"Jerez","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.3689500132240155,1.220504475183077,4.05914757900841],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-22-08|GT-M-22-08-2023-FINAL||1007","GT-M-22-08|GT-M-22-08-2019-FINAL||667","GT-M-22-08|GT-M-22-08-2015-FINAL||327"],"all_keys":["GT-M-22-08|GT-M-22-08-2023-FINAL||1007","GT-M-22-08|GT-M-22-08-2019-FINAL||667","GT-M-22-08|GT-M-22-08-2015-FINAL||327"],"shares":[[0.3739751388521555,0.3202856387199154],[0.3661513425549227,0.35394629780309195],[0.5065236300376921,0.465932154247608]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":80.03281945804913,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.449616503570484,25.707484792382967,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.10579211848717271,0,0,73.73710658555936],[36.61513425549227,2.6308652020612966,0,21.019799294819638,0,0,0,0,4.339571467317603,0,0,35.394629780309195],[50.65236300376921,0,0,2.1745433458973618,0,46.5932154247608,0.5798782255726298,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":61.41909639557185,"volatility_previous":61.210322398610366,"volatility_mean":61.31470939709111,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"FERNANDO RAFAEL VALENZUELA PEÑATE","party":"CABAL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-22-09","country":"Guatemala","region":"Jutiapa","name":"El Adelanto","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.30808080808081,3.673163418290855,3.8121686442817406],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-22-09|GT-M-22-09-2023-FINAL||1008","GT-M-22-09|GT-M-22-09-2019-FINAL||668","GT-M-22-09|GT-M-22-09-2015-FINAL||328"],"all_keys":["GT-M-22-09|GT-M-22-09-2023-FINAL||1008","GT-M-22-09|GT-M-22-09-2019-FINAL||668","GT-M-22-09|GT-M-22-09-2015-FINAL||328"],"shares":[[0.42803030303030304,0.34494949494949495],[0.42853573213393303,0.3918040979510245],[0.5190608432214087,0.4809391567785913]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":67.65992812618042,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.9848484848484849,34.494949494949495,42.803030303030305,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,21.71717171717172],[42.853573213393304,0,0,16.8415792103948,0,0,0,0,0.7246376811594203,0,0,39.58020989505248],[51.90608432214087,0,0,0,0,48.09391567785913,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":77.29797979797979,"volatility_previous":57.146426786606696,"volatility_mean":67.22220329229324,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"JOSE MARIA CORADO Y CORADO","party":"TODOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-22-10","country":"Guatemala","region":"Jutiapa","name":"Zapotitlán","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.4672320740169624,4.285408185129633,24.05628769265133],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-22-10|GT-M-22-10-2023-FINAL||1009","GT-M-22-10|GT-M-22-10-2019-FINAL||669","GT-M-22-10|GT-M-22-10-2015-FINAL||329"],"all_keys":["GT-M-22-10|GT-M-22-10-2023-FINAL||1009","GT-M-22-10|GT-M-22-10-2019-FINAL||669","GT-M-22-10|GT-M-22-10-2015-FINAL||329"],"shares":[[0.5,0.4753276792598304],[0.4904649667880866,0.44761088493679024],[0.5856600402054948,0.3450971632789815]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":74.142047653929,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.4818812644564379,50.0,1.638396299151889,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,47.879722436391674],[49.04649667880866,0,0,44.761088493679026,0,0,0,0,3.578315834583244,0,0,2.6140989929290765],[34.50971632789815,0,0,58.56600402054948,0,6.924279651552379,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":96.90401974261448,"volatility_previous":20.72919517842283,"volatility_mean":58.816607460518654,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"HILMAR EDGARDO QUIÑONEZ Y QUIÑONEZ","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-22-11","country":"Guatemala","region":"Jutiapa","name":"Comapa","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.146018343281412,16.814294441050706,14.211285668483484],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-22-11|GT-M-22-11-2023-FINAL||1010","GT-M-22-11|GT-M-22-11-2019-FINAL||670","GT-M-22-11|GT-M-22-11-2015-FINAL||330"],"all_keys":["GT-M-22-11|GT-M-22-11-2023-FINAL||1010","GT-M-22-11|GT-M-22-11-2019-FINAL||670","GT-M-22-11|GT-M-22-11-2015-FINAL||330"],"shares":[[0.47707089823846266,0.34561071480564853],[0.537797800855223,0.3696548564447159],[0.5569092657903174,0.41479640910548254]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":28.234860474337964,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[5.364681904207308,47.70708982384627,0.7060707526568641,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,46.22215751928957],[36.96548564447159,0.7254123396456933,0,6.498167379352474,0,0,0,0,53.7797800855223,0,0,2.0311545510079414],[41.479640910548255,0,0,1.0099390830394357,0,55.69092657903174,1.8194934273805707,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":91.87875120513905,"volatility_previous":62.024575272488974,"volatility_mean":76.951663238814,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"CESAR ESTUARDO VASQUEZ RECINOS","party":"VAMOS","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-22-12","country":"Guatemala","region":"Jutiapa","name":"Jalpatagua","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.6522630499921185,14.886679920477135,1.503523884103366],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-22-12|GT-M-22-12-2023-FINAL||1011","GT-M-22-12|GT-M-22-12-2019-FINAL||671","GT-M-22-12|GT-M-22-12-2015-FINAL||331"],"all_keys":["GT-M-22-12|GT-M-22-12-2023-FINAL||1011","GT-M-22-12|GT-M-22-12-2019-FINAL||671","GT-M-22-12|GT-M-22-12-2015-FINAL||331"],"shares":[[0.3265257845765652,0.28000315407664406],[0.4806361829025845,0.3317693836978131],[0.45583398590446356,0.4407987470634299]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":62.961429027256266,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.7203911055038636,28.000315407664406,4.675918624822583,0,3.240813751774168,0,0,0,0.1813594070335909,0,0,61.181201703201396],[48.06361829025845,3.4910536779324057,0,0,0.5964214711729622,0,0,0,10.163021868787276,0.47713717693836977,0,37.20874751491054],[8.809710258418168,0,0,0,0,45.58339859044636,44.07987470634299,0,0,0,0,1.5270164447924823]],"volatility_latest":55.80202682344664,"volatility_previous":89.66327329678936,"volatility_mean":72.732650060118,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":{"name":"ARMANDO REMBERTO VASQUEZ PEREZ","party":"AZUL","date":"2023-06-25","source_id":"S86641369d4ca"},"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Final TSE municipal report: votes and adjudicated titular seats":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"GT-M-22-13","country":"Guatemala","region":"Jutiapa","name":"Conguaco","office":"Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-06-27","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":1,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.1131510676511667,10.984626217580097,0.6680731364275658],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","local_note":"Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.","sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"selected_keys":["GT-M-22-13|GT-M-22-13-2023-FINAL||1012","GT-M-22-13|GT-M-22-13-2019-FINAL||672","GT-M-22-13|GT-M-22-13-2015-FINAL||332"],"all_keys":["GT-M-22-13|GT-M-22-13-2023-FINAL||1012","GT-M-22-13|GT-M-22-13-2019-FINAL||672","GT-M-22-13|GT-M-22-13-2015-FINAL||332"],"shares":[[0.37607264019157854,0.34494112951506684],[0.407815984039432,0.297969721863631],[0.49179559306141585,0.4851148616971402]],"cycle_sources":["https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"],"comparison_ci":73.84957090246257,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","source":"https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf"},{"country":"Guatemala","id":"COUNTRY","year":null,"issue":"Country screen evidence","detail":"TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2019. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","source":"https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf"},{"country":"Guatemala","id":"COUNTRY","year":null,"issue":"Country screen evidence","detail":"TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2023. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.","source":"https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf"}],"sources":[{"id":"Sc79261df95","country":"Guatemala","title":"TSE TREP 2023 provisional municipal snapshot, ballot 1","url":"https://primeraeleccion.trep.gt/ext/jsonData_gtm2023/1687736870/1688050101/gtm2023_datos.json","sha256":"c79261df959300834b64a947330999aeab34590a216338ac253a468a425cdd4d","retrieved":"2026-09-11T18:30:09Z","type":"Official provisional count; not final declaration"},{"id":"S1b05dbe1ab","country":"Guatemala","title":"TSE TREP 2023 provisional municipal snapshot, ballot 2","url":"https://segundaeleccion.trep.gt/ext/jsonData_gtm2023/1692574389/1692594771/gtm2023_datos.json","sha256":"1b05dbe1ab294f415340732cac53589d435338bf526cf35e96e90850f0e25cde","retrieved":"2026-09-11T18:30:09Z","type":"Official provisional count; not final declaration"},{"id":"Sa36b2ca36e7d","country":"Guatemala","title":"Repeated municipal election calendar evidence: gt_oas2015.pdf","url":"https://www.oas.org/es/sap/deco/moe_informe/Informe_MOE_Guatemala2015_s.pdf","retrieved":"2026-09-12T05:11:02Z","sha256":"a36b2ca36e7ddd5bfcf5ece59426cdb64db809971ffa3883c30836adf01ef9c0"},{"id":"S7be7cd08900a","country":"Guatemala","title":"Repeated municipal election calendar evidence: gt_repeat2015.html","url":"https://www.ojoconmipisto.com/tse-elecciones-municipales/","retrieved":"2026-09-12T05:11:02Z","sha256":"7be7cd08900a8b0c879fb60b3a86624a070a477d5e2c48ed2d7b3bb1e93e5c11"},{"id":"S62668f5d78cd","country":"Guatemala","title":"Repeated municipal election calendar evidence: gt_repeat2019.html","url":"https://www.prensalibre.com/guatemala/politica/en-estos-5-municipios-se-repetiran-las-elecciones-el-11-de-agosto/","retrieved":"2026-09-12T05:11:02Z","sha256":"62668f5d78cdb6914f5ea18112dac580b3b79a4122d84f2ff61740fbf5dda946"},{"id":"S6241581360d0","country":"Guatemala","title":"TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report)","url":"https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf","retrieved":"2026-09-12T04:47:31Z","sha256":"6241581360d091085b61cbab1a77f5387cc304b7137f6ec204c155170f24e1f6"},{"id":"S6d250220e847","country":"Guatemala","title":"TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report)","url":"https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf","retrieved":"2026-09-12T04:47:31Z","sha256":"6d250220e847d593fd9c3c1d0edcff7213fa27f2d8ddb49f73639ab356b9082e"},{"id":"S86641369d4ca","country":"Guatemala","title":"TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report)","url":"https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf","retrieved":"2026-09-12T04:47:31Z","sha256":"86641369d4ca58313c7b9c1e91d5eae735d9abe1ab0585e0a67be260e036b455"}],"polling":[]}