{ "snapshot": "2026-09-13", "window_start": "2026-09-08", "window_end": "2028-03-08", "status": "Corrected and expanded research release; South America is not research-complete", "counts": { "units": 12738, "histories": 27889, "party_rows": 164191, "three_votes": 7435, "three_seats": 2358, "comparison_ci_available": 5860, "grouped_volatility_available": 4215 }, "changes": { "colombia_reaggregated_histories": 3388, "colombia_existing_vote_totals_changed": 95, "colombia_duplicate_closed_list_histories": 94, "colombia_order_only_or_same_total_changes": 924, "colombia_added_histories": 10, "colombia_mixed_type_histories": 20, "peru_final_outcomes": 2, "peru_credentialed_people": 6, "guyana_handwritten_vectors": 2, "calacali_reported_lists": 5, "french_guiana_actual_cycles": 2, "french_guiana_rounds": 4, "alternative_baseline_records": 528, "alternative_baseline_CI": 468, "argentina_catamarca_provisional_returns_added": 10, "roraima_official_2010_rounds_added": 2, "roraima_official_2010_cycles_added": 1, "rio_signed_recount_party_totals_verified": 31, "rio_named_elected_deputies_added": 70, "roraima_local_poll_added": 1, "peru_2026_directory_offices_added": 78, "peru_code_bridges_added": 1, "peru_official_name_corrections": 3, "peru_dated_mayor_records_added": 3085, "colombia_cali_jal_offices_added": 37, "colombia_cali_dated_membership_records_added": 824, "ecuador_ordinary_office_register_verified": 1292, "ecuador_ordinary_parish_codes_verified": 825, "ecuador_new_office_code_bridges": 7, "ecuador_dated_electorate_differences": 15, "ecuador_first_election_histories_filled": 6, "ecuador_party_vote_rows_added": 24, "ecuador_named_principals_in_statistics": 26, "ecuador_named_substitutes_in_statistics": 25, "ecuador_statistical_ballot_discrepancies": 4 }, "country_coverage": [ { "country": "Argentina", "status": "Results imported; completion checks remain", "units": 3440, "historical_units": 120, "histories": 7939, "party_rows": 34797, "three_votes": 1561, "three_seats": 497, "score_ready": 1, "note": "All 24 provincial jurisdictions are screened; 3,440 current provincial/local or shared-ballot units are registered. Recovered archives now cover all provinces. All 804 previously inaccessible Córdoba tribunal tables are restored, adding local histories and replacing provincial secondary vote transcriptions. Several local tiers have inventories or winner-only evidence without three full returns. Corrientes and Santiago del Estero executive cycles outside the window are excluded. Partial chamber renewals, Santa Fe commune reform, conventions and replacements remain distinct. Older local votes, selected certificates and 2027 office calls remain incomplete. Ten 2023 Catamarca local returns are recovered from DINE provisional table data through exact single-municipality department bridges; they remain excluded from complete-cycle metrics pending final-tally reconciliation.", "date": "", "denominator_status": "Eligible-office denominator not closed", "file": "Argentina_Returns.xlsx", "comparison_ci_available": 1056, "grouped_volatility_available": 157 }, { "country": "Bolivia", "status": "Ordinary March 2026 cycle outside window; special and indigenous calls remain open", "units": 0, "historical_units": 0, "histories": 0, "party_rows": 0, "three_votes": 0, "three_seats": 0, "score_ready": 0, "note": "TSE resolution 0510/2025 called departmental, regional and municipal voting for 22 March 2026 and the 2026–2031 term. This ordinary cohort is before the fixed window. Indigenous authorities selected under their own procedures, delayed or repeated polls and later replacements require a separate call check; no unverified absence of those races is claimed. This is an as-of-13-September-2026 screen; an unannounced future exception is a monitoring condition, not a missing historical result.", "date": "", "denominator_status": "Eligible-office denominator not closed", "file": "" }, { "country": "Brazil", "status": "Results imported; completion checks remain", "units": 62, "historical_units": 0, "histories": 201, "party_rows": 2817, "three_votes": 52, "three_seats": 31, "score_ready": 1, "note": "54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.", "date": "2026-10-04", "denominator_status": "Eligible-office denominator not closed", "file": "Brazil_Returns.xlsx", "comparison_ci_available": 52, "grouped_volatility_available": 26 }, { "country": "Chile", "status": "Ordinary regional and municipal cycle outside window; no in-window exceptional call verified as of snapshot", "units": 0, "historical_units": 0, "histories": 0, "party_rows": 0, "three_votes": 0, "three_seats": 0, "score_ready": 0, "note": "Ordinary regional and municipal elections fall in October 2028, after the fixed cutoff. Municipal Law 18.695 article 106 sets four-year October cycles. BCN confirms four-year governor terms and alignment of governor, regional-council and municipal voting from October 2024. Mayoral vacancies normally use council selection under article 62; annulment repeats require a specific call. No in-window extraordinary public ballot was verified in the reviewed sources as of 13 September 2026.", "date": "", "denominator_status": "Eligible-office denominator not closed", "file": "" }, { "country": "Colombia", "status": "Results imported; completion checks remain", "units": 2307, "historical_units": 0, "histories": 6825, "party_rows": 45783, "three_votes": 2194, "three_seats": 0, "score_ready": 0, "note": "Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.", "date": "2027-10-31", "denominator_status": "Eligible-office denominator not closed", "file": "Colombia_Returns.xlsx", "comparison_ci_available": 2186, "grouped_volatility_available": 1916 }, { "country": "Ecuador", "status": "Results imported; completion checks remain", "units": 1295, "historical_units": 2, "histories": 3857, "party_rows": 23362, "three_votes": 1278, "three_seats": 1279, "score_ready": 0, "note": "The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.", "date": "2026-11-29", "denominator_status": "Ordinary cohort reconciled to CNE; three March 2027 first contests tracked separately", "file": "Ecuador_Returns.xlsx", "comparison_ci_available": 244, "grouped_volatility_available": 152 }, { "country": "Guyana", "status": "Results imported; completion checks remain", "units": 80, "historical_units": 3, "histories": 231, "party_rows": 519, "three_votes": 51, "three_seats": 53, "score_ready": 0, "note": "All 80 GECOM LAAs have reviewed 2023 PR results, including unopposed declarations. 51 have three numeric PR cycles; 21 historical name bridges are documented. 32 full council allocations are separately reconciled. Next local call, changed boundaries, remaining constituency seats and present council control remain unresolved. A separate 252-entry Indigenous community directory is included as evidence, not a verified count of elected village councils. Two 2016 handwritten PR returns, Enmore/Hope and Golden Grove/Diamond Place, have been visually resolved, including the explicit manuscript correction in the latter.", "date": "", "denominator_status": "Eligible-office denominator not closed", "file": "Guyana_Returns.xlsx", "comparison_ci_available": 51, "grouped_volatility_available": 61 }, { "country": "Paraguay", "status": "Results imported; completion checks remain", "units": 526, "historical_units": 0, "histories": 2954, "party_rows": 10635, "three_votes": 444, "three_seats": 498, "score_ready": 0, "note": "526 current mayor/council offices. Named-geography mapping repairs changing historical district codes; original labels retained. Distinct source list numbers fix three acronym-collision vote discrepancies. Numeric totals reconcile, but boundary changes, intervening events and current control are not certified country-wide; the blanket CI clearance is removed.", "date": "2026-10-04", "denominator_status": "Eligible-office denominator not closed", "file": "Paraguay_Returns.xlsx", "comparison_ci_available": 434, "grouped_volatility_available": 476 }, { "country": "Peru", "status": "Results imported; completion checks remain", "units": 5028, "historical_units": 11, "histories": 5882, "party_rows": 46278, "three_votes": 1855, "three_seats": 0, "score_ready": 0, "note": "1,942 main regional/municipal ballots plus 3,086 provisionally tracked populated-centre slates: 3,085 in INEI’s 2026 directory plus one unresolved older-directory entry. Restored 102 unaffected 2022 returns excluded by an overly broad malformed-row rule; five affected units remain quarantined. Pión’s failed 2022–2025 attempts are excluded from completed cycles; Cajamarca Ninabamba’s final 2025 election replaces its failed attempts in the selected series. Official centre calls, seat proclamations and current control remain open. JNE 0590-2025 resolves Ninabamba with final 2025 votes and six elected authorities, and Pión with a final annulment and continuation of its 2018 authorities. Finally annulled attempts are not counted as unresolved decisions or valid mandates. The 2026 directory adds 78 office records, a documented Manitea Alta code/district bridge, three name corrections and 3,085 dated mayor records as of 13 March 2026. It is not the 3,382-roll election register; 26 cohort matches remain separately corroborated.", "date": "2026-10-04", "denominator_status": "Eligible-office denominator not closed", "file": "Peru_Returns.xlsx", "comparison_ci_available": 1837, "grouped_volatility_available": 1427 }, { "country": "Suriname", "status": "Ordinary local cycle outside window; specific statutory exceptions monitored", "units": 0, "historical_units": 0, "histories": 0, "party_rows": 0, "three_votes": 0, "three_seats": 0, "score_ready": 0, "note": "The 2025 consolidated Kiesregeling articles 10–11 give ressort and district councils five-year terms; ASV confirms the 25 May 2025 local election. Ordinary renewal is therefore beyond March 2028. Article 137(5) provides a new ressort election when an outgoing member is the only or last candidate on the list, while article 138 covers insufficient nominations. These exceptions require actual calls, not a blanket no-election assumption. This is an as-of-13-September-2026 screen; an unannounced future exception is a monitoring condition, not a missing historical result.", "date": "", "denominator_status": "Eligible-office denominator not closed", "file": "" }, { "country": "Uruguay", "status": "Ordinary departmental cycle outside window; special-call check open", "units": 0, "historical_units": 0, "histories": 0, "party_rows": 0, "three_votes": 0, "three_seats": 0, "score_ready": 0, "note": "The Electoral Court dates the last departmental and municipal election to 11 May 2025. Constitution article 266 provides five-year terms for intendants, supporting an ordinary departmental renewal after this window. Municipal terms and exceptional calls require their own check. Montevideo’s Concejos Vecinales are described by Municipio B as autonomous social-participation organizations; they are distinct from municipal government councils and are not entered as government-control races. Municipal Law 19.272 article 9 sets elected five-member municipalities and departmental-style substitutes; article 11 provides succession for prolonged or permanent mayoral absence. A vacancy therefore does not by itself establish a new public ballot. This is an as-of-13-September-2026 screen; an unannounced future exception is a monitoring condition, not a missing historical result.", "date": "", "denominator_status": "Eligible-office denominator not closed", "file": "" }, { "country": "Venezuela", "status": "2025 ordinary cohort supports 2029 renewal; exceptional transition calls unverified", "units": 0, "historical_units": 0, "histories": 0, "party_rows": 0, "three_votes": 0, "three_seats": 0, "score_ready": 0, "note": "Regional and municipal ordinary renewals were held in May and July 2025. Constitutional articles 160, 162 and 174 provide four-year subnational executive/legislative terms; municipal law article 82, amended in Gazette 6.015 of 28 December 2010, retains four-year mayor/council terms. These support an ordinary 2029 cycle outside the fixed window. The Assembly catalog lists the municipal law as in force. The 2010 Gazette reproduction was used to read article 82 because the Assembly scan had no extractable text. Current exceptional or transition-related calls remain unverified; zero imported offices is not a claim that no early election can be called.", "date": "", "denominator_status": "Eligible-office denominator not closed", "file": "" } ], "remaining_evidence": { "Argentina": "Missing older local results in several provincial datasets, full seat proclamations, intervened/replacement contests and dated coalition control. Many municipalities vote separately from provincial election day. Final 2027 calls remain subject to official publication. Ten Catamarca 2023 local returns now have primary provisional counts; final certification and older cycles are still missing. DINE 2015 download has no Catamarca local records. Entre Ríos final national consultation warns that foreign-voter tables are excluded. Neuquén final-file links returned access-denied responses; several older links point to private or defunct hosts.", "Brazil": "Roraima legal certification, Rio and other specific replacement/current-control cases remain open. Eight municipal replacement tickets are tracked; ordinary municipal renewals are outside the window. Public-vote baselines for Alagoas and Amazonas are supplied separately from their indirect selections. Roraima’s primary 2010 cycle is recovered; the June 2026 proclamation is still unresolved. Rio’s signed 2026 legislative retotalization verifies the imported 2022 votes and seats, with 70 named elected deputies added; later membership and governing-coalition control still need dated verification.", "Colombia": "Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.", "Ecuador": "The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.", "Guyana": "Older full PR vectors remain absent or inconsistent for several LAAs; Nile/Cozier 2018 has an unresolved printed-total conflict. The 2018 official index omits three towns. Whole-council constituency allocations, geography and current control remain incomplete. The Indigenous community directory is not a verified election register or a three-cycle return archive.", "Paraguay": "Replacement elections sometimes contain only winner/seat evidence. New municipalities, boundary/party continuity and dated control remain incomplete. The separate ordinary-election baseline helps historical comparison but does not fill replacement losing-vote gaps.", "Peru": "The 3,085-entry INEI 2026 municipal directory and one unresolved 2025-only entry are tracked separately from RENIEC’s 3,382 electoral rolls. The complete named 2026 local call register and three-cycle vote/seat archive remain unavailable. Manitea Alta is bridged to its new district/code. Valle Nazarategui’s omission requires legal reconciliation. Five malformed 2022 source units, full seat proclamations and current control remain incomplete. Pión’s final annulment and Ninabamba’s final 2025 result are resolved.", "Bolivia": "Ordinary March 2026 elections precede the fixed window. Indigenous procedures and specifically called delayed/repeated polls need their own dated evidence; no future absence of special elections is asserted.", "Chile": "Ordinary regional and municipal renewal falls in October 2028, after the cutoff. No in-window extraordinary public ballot was verified in the reviewed sources.", "Suriname": "Ordinary 2025–2030 local cycle is outside the window. Statutory replacement exceptions require a specific call.", "Uruguay": "Ordinary 2025–2030 departmental/municipal cycle is outside the window. Substitution normally fills vacancies; neighbourhood participation bodies are distinct from elected government-control offices.", "Venezuela": "The May/July 2025 ordinary elections and four-year terms support 2029 renewal. A specific exceptional or transition-related in-window call remains unverified." }, "polling": [ { "country": "Brazil", "scope": "National presidential poll; context for subnational races", "pollster": "Datafolha", "fieldwork_start": "2026-09-01", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-02", "publication_date": "2026-09-03", "sample": 2002, "margin_of_error_pp": 2, "tse_registration": "BR-03669/2026", "measure": "Hypothetical presidential runoff", "incumbent_candidate": "Lula (PT)", "incumbent_share": 46, "opposition_candidate": "Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)", "opposition_share": 44, "interpretation": "Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.", "local_forecast": "No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed", "source_type": "Poll commissioning publisher's report", "url": "https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml" }, { "country": "Brazil", "office_ids": [ "BR-RJ-G" ], "scope": "Rio de Janeiro governor", "pollster": "Datafolha", "fieldwork_start": "2026-09-08", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-11", "publication_date": "2026-09-11", "sample": 1204, "margin_of_error_pp": 3, "measure": "Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents", "incumbent_candidate": "Eduardo Paes (PSD)", "incumbent_share": 43, "opposition_candidate": "Douglas Ruas (PL)", "opposition_share": 25, "candidate_label_note": "Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status", "registration": "RJ-09217/2026", "interpretation": "Eduardo Paes (PSD) 43%, Douglas Ruas (PL) 25%. Numerical gap 18 percentage points. The reported point estimates show a lead at fieldwork time. Undecided 3%. Neither leading candidate is the interim governor. Later candidate eligibility decisions can change the ballot.", "local_forecast": "Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag", "source_type": "Poll publisher report", "url": "https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-eduardo-paes-lidera-com-49-dos-votos-validos-no-rio.shtml", "source_sha256": "4842d4010f586661798c06bf54c0605523d5438c2b5a3d3c9a1deddf238d7bca", "retrieved": "2026-09-12T12:13:29Z" }, { "country": "Brazil", "office_ids": [ "BR-SP-G" ], "scope": "São Paulo governor", "pollster": "Paraná Pesquisas", "fieldwork_start": "2026-09-07", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-10", "publication_date": "2026-09-11", "sample": 1680, "margin_of_error_pp": 2.4, "measure": "Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents", "incumbent_candidate": "Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos)", "incumbent_share": 49.7, "opposition_candidate": "Fernando Haddad (PT)", "opposition_share": 34.5, "candidate_label_note": "Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status", "registration": "", "interpretation": "Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) 49.7%, Fernando Haddad (PT) 34.5%. Numerical gap 15.2 percentage points. The reported point estimates show a lead at fieldwork time. Undecided 4.4%. The incumbent leads this poll. Valid-vote normalization is not substituted for all-respondent shares.", "local_forecast": "Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag", "source_type": "Poll publisher report", "url": "https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/colunas/painel/2026/09/tarcisio-chega-a-56-dos-votos-validos-e-venceria-em-primeiro-turno-diz-pesquisa-parana.shtml", "source_sha256": "546dc3f76974270ca5d49446d5a742cd9704ee59bb87ed56c05eb3e48cd4176c", "retrieved": "2026-09-12T12:13:29Z" }, { "country": "Brazil", "office_ids": [ "BR-SP-G" ], "scope": "São Paulo governor", "pollster": "Quaest", "fieldwork_start": "2026-09-04", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-07", "publication_date": "2026-09-08", "sample": 1800, "margin_of_error_pp": 2, "measure": "Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents", "incumbent_candidate": "Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos)", "incumbent_share": 42, "opposition_candidate": "Fernando Haddad (PT)", "opposition_share": 27, "candidate_label_note": "Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status", "registration": "SP-00959/2026", "interpretation": "Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) 42%, Fernando Haddad (PT) 27%. Numerical gap 15 percentage points. The reported point estimates show a lead at fieldwork time. Undecided 14%. The incumbent leads this poll; it is retained alongside the later Paraná study without averaging unlike surveys.", "local_forecast": "Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag", "source_type": "Poll publisher report", "url": "https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/quaest-tarcisio-tem-42-no-1o-turno-para-governo-de-sp-contra-27-de-haddad.shtml", "source_sha256": "4fc1ccfceb5ec48c3402000eb2d1c84e3176b91df0b77cfe7a568de428a3598c", "retrieved": "2026-09-12T12:13:29Z" }, { "country": "Peru", "office_ids": [ "PE-6dac1ede1abb9a" ], "scope": "Lima provincial municipal ballot", "pollster": "Ipsos", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-05", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-06", "publication_date": "2026-08-10", "sample": 502, "margin_of_error_pp": 4.37, "measure": "Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents", "incumbent_candidate": "Rafael López Aliaga (Renovación Popular)", "incumbent_share": 21, "opposition_candidate": "Carlos Bruce (Somos Perú)", "opposition_share": 13, "candidate_label_note": "Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status", "registration": "001-REE/JNE", "interpretation": "Rafael López Aliaga (Renovación Popular) 21%, Carlos Bruce (Somos Perú) 13%. Numerical gap 8 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 21%. Technical sheet on page 12; candidate chart on pages 4–5. Website article is dated 10 August; search metadata showed 28 August and is not used.", "local_forecast": "Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag", "source_type": "Pollster report", "url": "https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2026-08/Encuesta%20Elecciones%20Municipales%20Agosto%20de%202026%20V3.pdf", "source_sha256": "4fff058924ac43885898cdddefe33d19a2c10392f47c697f1bc3a4ca75d2f771", "retrieved": "2026-09-12T12:15:37Z" }, { "country": "Peru", "office_ids": [ "PE-8cc1de943a5343" ], "scope": "Miraflores district municipal ballot", "pollster": "CPI", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-17", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-21", "publication_date": "2026-08-26", "sample": 300, "margin_of_error_pp": 5.7, "measure": "Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents", "incumbent_candidate": "Alessio Cantella", "incumbent_share": 20, "opposition_candidate": "Jorge Muñoz", "opposition_share": 16.6, "candidate_label_note": "Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status", "registration": "", "interpretation": "Alessio Cantella 20%, Jorge Muñoz 16.6%. Numerical gap 3.4 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 23.3%.", "local_forecast": "Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag", "source_type": "Poll publisher report", "url": "https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-municipales-lima-2026-encuesta-cpi-de-intencion-de-voto-por-distritos-noticia-1703692", "source_sha256": "be8b84ffa4c249de80db2981e9f0be59eeb56bbbf993debd11a9dde8d25fb774", "retrieved": "2026-09-12T12:14:56Z" }, { "country": "Peru", "office_ids": [ "PE-2ed8a36d967ed3" ], "scope": "La Molina district municipal ballot", "pollster": "CPI", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-17", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-21", "publication_date": "2026-08-26", "sample": 350, "margin_of_error_pp": 5.2, "measure": "Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents", "incumbent_candidate": "Juan Carlos Zurek", "incumbent_share": 21.7, "opposition_candidate": "Sergio Castromonte", "opposition_share": 16.6, "candidate_label_note": "Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status", "registration": "", "interpretation": "Juan Carlos Zurek 21.7%, Sergio Castromonte 16.6%. Numerical gap 5.1 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 31.1%.", "local_forecast": "Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag", "source_type": "Poll publisher report", "url": "https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-municipales-lima-2026-encuesta-cpi-de-intencion-de-voto-por-distritos-noticia-1703692", "source_sha256": "be8b84ffa4c249de80db2981e9f0be59eeb56bbbf993debd11a9dde8d25fb774", "retrieved": "2026-09-12T12:14:56Z" }, { "country": "Peru", "office_ids": [ "PE-16af37a264a54a" ], "scope": "Los Olivos district municipal ballot", "pollster": "CPI", "fieldwork_start": "2026-07-31", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-04", "publication_date": "2026-08-26", "sample": 400, "margin_of_error_pp": 4.9, "measure": "Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents", "incumbent_candidate": "Felipe Castillo Alfaro", "incumbent_share": 26.1, "opposition_candidate": "Erick Melchor", "opposition_share": 10.6, "candidate_label_note": "Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status", "registration": "", "interpretation": "Felipe Castillo Alfaro 26.1%, Erick Melchor 10.6%. Numerical gap 15.5 percentage points. The reported point estimates show a lead at fieldwork time. Undecided 28.4%.", "local_forecast": "Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag", "source_type": "Poll publisher report", "url": "https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-municipales-lima-2026-encuesta-cpi-de-intencion-de-voto-por-distritos-noticia-1703692", "source_sha256": "be8b84ffa4c249de80db2981e9f0be59eeb56bbbf993debd11a9dde8d25fb774", "retrieved": "2026-09-12T12:14:56Z" }, { "country": "Peru", "office_ids": [ "PE-3e77bf9a769da8" ], "scope": "Pueblo Libre district municipal ballot", "pollster": "CPI", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-11", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-14", "publication_date": "2026-08-26", "sample": 250, "margin_of_error_pp": 6.2, "measure": "Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents", "incumbent_candidate": "Jhonel Leguía", "incumbent_share": 24.8, "opposition_candidate": "Cecilia Acosta", "opposition_share": 13.6, "candidate_label_note": "Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status", "registration": "", "interpretation": "Jhonel Leguía 24.8%, Cecilia Acosta 13.6%. Numerical gap 11.2 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 35.6%.", "local_forecast": "Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag", "source_type": "Poll publisher report", "url": "https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-municipales-lima-2026-encuesta-cpi-de-intencion-de-voto-por-distritos-noticia-1703692", "source_sha256": "be8b84ffa4c249de80db2981e9f0be59eeb56bbbf993debd11a9dde8d25fb774", "retrieved": "2026-09-12T12:14:56Z" }, { "country": "Peru", "office_ids": [ "PE-9233f8366c44b7" ], "scope": "Santiago De Surco district municipal ballot", "pollster": "CPI", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-14", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-19", "publication_date": "2026-08-26", "sample": 350, "margin_of_error_pp": 5.2, "measure": "Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents", "incumbent_candidate": "Arturo Bobbio", "incumbent_share": 30.6, "opposition_candidate": "Juan Palma", "opposition_share": 22.6, "candidate_label_note": "Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status", "registration": "", "interpretation": "Arturo Bobbio 30.6%, Juan Palma 22.6%. Numerical gap 8 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 19.1%.", "local_forecast": "Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag", "source_type": "Poll publisher report", "url": "https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-municipales-lima-2026-encuesta-cpi-de-intencion-de-voto-por-distritos-noticia-1703692", "source_sha256": "be8b84ffa4c249de80db2981e9f0be59eeb56bbbf993debd11a9dde8d25fb774", "retrieved": "2026-09-12T12:14:56Z" }, { "country": "Peru", "office_ids": [ "PE-b3076625948256" ], "scope": "San Borja district municipal ballot", "pollster": "CPI", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-15", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-19", "publication_date": "2026-08-26", "sample": 300, "margin_of_error_pp": 5.7, "measure": "Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents", "incumbent_candidate": "Javier Diez", "incumbent_share": 26.7, "opposition_candidate": "Alberto Tejada", "opposition_share": 14.7, "candidate_label_note": "Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status", "registration": "", "interpretation": "Javier Diez 26.7%, Alberto Tejada 14.7%. Numerical gap 12 percentage points. The reported point estimates show a lead at fieldwork time. Undecided 23.7%.", "local_forecast": "Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag", "source_type": "Poll publisher report", "url": "https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-municipales-lima-2026-encuesta-cpi-de-intencion-de-voto-por-distritos-noticia-1703692", "source_sha256": "be8b84ffa4c249de80db2981e9f0be59eeb56bbbf993debd11a9dde8d25fb774", "retrieved": "2026-09-12T12:14:56Z" }, { "country": "Peru", "office_ids": [ "PE-ba23e3c3432c1b" ], "scope": "San Isidro district municipal ballot", "pollster": "CPI", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-14", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-18", "publication_date": "2026-08-26", "sample": 300, "margin_of_error_pp": 5.7, "measure": "Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents", "incumbent_candidate": "Javier Paino", "incumbent_share": 17.3, "opposition_candidate": "Víctor Hugo Bazán", "opposition_share": 14.7, "candidate_label_note": "Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status", "registration": "", "interpretation": "Javier Paino 17.3%, Víctor Hugo Bazán 14.7%. Numerical gap 2.6 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 44.7%.", "local_forecast": "Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag", "source_type": "Poll publisher report", "url": "https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-municipales-lima-2026-encuesta-cpi-de-intencion-de-voto-por-distritos-noticia-1703692", "source_sha256": "be8b84ffa4c249de80db2981e9f0be59eeb56bbbf993debd11a9dde8d25fb774", "retrieved": "2026-09-12T12:14:56Z" }, { "country": "Peru", "office_ids": [ "PE-dcd914b58436af" ], "scope": "San Martin De Porres district municipal ballot", "pollster": "CPI", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-18", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-23", "publication_date": "2026-08-26", "sample": 400, "margin_of_error_pp": 4.9, "measure": "Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents", "incumbent_candidate": "Peter Jaime", "incumbent_share": 15.3, "opposition_candidate": "Adolfo Mattos", "opposition_share": 10.5, "candidate_label_note": "Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status", "registration": "", "interpretation": "Peter Jaime 15.3%, Adolfo Mattos 10.5%. Numerical gap 4.8 percentage points. The two reported percentage ranges overlap; no clear separation is inferred from this simple check. Undecided 34.2%.", "local_forecast": "Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag", "source_type": "Poll publisher report", "url": "https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-municipales-lima-2026-encuesta-cpi-de-intencion-de-voto-por-distritos-noticia-1703692", "source_sha256": "be8b84ffa4c249de80db2981e9f0be59eeb56bbbf993debd11a9dde8d25fb774", "retrieved": "2026-09-12T12:14:56Z" }, { "country": "Argentina", "scope": "National presidential approval; context for subnational races", "pollster": "AtlasIntel / Bloomberg", "series_id": "atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug", "fieldwork_start": "2026-07-30", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-03", "publication_date": null, "report_month": "2026-07", "sample": 1120, "margin_of_error_pp": 3, "methodology": "Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin", "measure": "Presidential job approval", "incumbent_candidate": "Javier Milei", "incumbent_share": 37.1, "opposition_candidate": "Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)", "opposition_share": 62.4, "approve_pct": 37.1, "disapprove_pct": 62.4, "unsure_pct": 0.5, "candidate_label_note": "Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares", "interpretation": "Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ", "local_forecast": "Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability", "source_type": "Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6", "url": "https://cdn.atlasintel.org/39865b10-c10c-43c6-a1e2-e2b864962ffc.pdf", "source_sha256": "604490577e8be89264d9c36a74179fd0b2f30dae73b5eb640775042909b832cd", "source_pages": [ 6, 8 ], "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "precision_note": "One decimal place as printed", "within_person_comparable": true, "approval_change_pp": null }, { "country": "Argentina", "scope": "National presidential approval; context for subnational races", "pollster": "AtlasIntel / Bloomberg", "series_id": "atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-30", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-03", "publication_date": null, "report_month": "2026-08", "sample": 2193, "margin_of_error_pp": 2, "methodology": "Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin", "measure": "Presidential job approval", "incumbent_candidate": "Javier Milei", "incumbent_share": 38.1, "opposition_candidate": "Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)", "opposition_share": 58, "approve_pct": 38.1, "disapprove_pct": 58, "unsure_pct": 3.9, "candidate_label_note": "Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares", "interpretation": "Approval rose 1.0 percentage point while disapproval fell 4.4 points; approval movement is smaller than the combined reported survey uncertainty. The negative approval balance remains a national headwind for Milei-aligned candidates, conditional on local alliance and incumbent identity.", "local_forecast": "Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability", "source_type": "Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6", "url": "https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/ar_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_aa84843133a7af6c.pdf", "source_sha256": "9dde688516e32dd0382ff00ffda9026ee946dc49cb14ff4067e4bd6f60808f7b", "source_pages": [ 6, 8 ], "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "precision_note": "One decimal place as printed", "within_person_comparable": true, "approval_change_pp": 1.0 }, { "country": "Brazil", "scope": "National presidential approval; context for subnational races", "pollster": "AtlasIntel / Bloomberg", "series_id": "atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug", "fieldwork_start": "2026-07-22", "fieldwork_end": "2026-07-27", "publication_date": null, "report_month": "2026-07", "sample": 5021, "margin_of_error_pp": 1, "methodology": "Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin", "measure": "Presidential job approval", "incumbent_candidate": "Lula", "incumbent_share": 48, "opposition_candidate": "Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)", "opposition_share": 51, "approve_pct": 48, "disapprove_pct": 51, "unsure_pct": 1, "candidate_label_note": "Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares", "interpretation": "Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ", "local_forecast": "Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability", "source_type": "Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6", "url": "https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf", "source_sha256": "e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506", "source_pages": [ 6, 8 ], "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "precision_note": "Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart", "within_person_comparable": true, "approval_change_pp": null }, { "country": "Brazil", "scope": "National presidential approval; context for subnational races", "pollster": "AtlasIntel / Bloomberg", "series_id": "atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-25", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-30", "publication_date": null, "report_month": "2026-08", "sample": 5014, "margin_of_error_pp": 1, "methodology": "Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin", "measure": "Presidential job approval", "incumbent_candidate": "Lula", "incumbent_share": 45, "opposition_candidate": "Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)", "opposition_share": 53, "approve_pct": 45, "disapprove_pct": 53, "unsure_pct": 2, "candidate_label_note": "Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares", "interpretation": "Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.", "local_forecast": "Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability", "source_type": "Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6", "url": "https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf", "source_sha256": "03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2", "source_pages": [ 6, 8 ], "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "precision_note": "Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart", "within_person_comparable": true, "approval_change_pp": -3 }, { "country": "Chile", "scope": "National presidential approval; context for subnational races", "pollster": "AtlasIntel / Bloomberg", "series_id": "atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug", "fieldwork_start": "2026-07-30", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-03", "publication_date": null, "report_month": "2026-07", "sample": 1801, "margin_of_error_pp": 2, "methodology": "Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin", "measure": "Presidential job approval", "incumbent_candidate": "José Antonio Kast", "incumbent_share": 50.2, "opposition_candidate": "Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)", "opposition_share": 48.2, "approve_pct": 50.2, "disapprove_pct": 48.2, "unsure_pct": 1.6, "candidate_label_note": "Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares", "interpretation": "Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ", "local_forecast": "Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability", "source_type": "Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6", "url": "https://cdn.atlasintel.org/f62eb000-c5f0-4779-ba44-984d41b6335a.pdf", "source_sha256": "4f201eec9ce9817d4569fcc83ae2e7704d0da034c866766a780d307a88a50b4f", "source_pages": [ 6, 8 ], "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "precision_note": "One decimal place as printed", "within_person_comparable": true, "approval_change_pp": null }, { "country": "Chile", "scope": "National presidential approval; context for subnational races", "pollster": "AtlasIntel / Bloomberg", "series_id": "atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-30", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-03", "publication_date": null, "report_month": "2026-08", "sample": 2069, "margin_of_error_pp": 2, "methodology": "Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin", "measure": "Presidential job approval", "incumbent_candidate": "José Antonio Kast", "incumbent_share": 54.1, "opposition_candidate": "Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)", "opposition_share": 45.8, "approve_pct": 54.1, "disapprove_pct": 45.8, "unsure_pct": 0.1, "candidate_label_note": "Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares", "interpretation": "Approval increased 3.9 points and disapproval declined 2.4 points. This is a descriptive two-wave change, not an established long-run trend. The next ordinary subnational cohort is outside the fixed window.", "local_forecast": "Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability", "source_type": "Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6", "url": "https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/cl_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_6425eacaa2bb87ed.pdf", "source_sha256": "e4ba073bf7ff4b33a0e8ef8e09d7dac5d0451a33e403ca43f5931a54d48f5aba", "source_pages": [ 6, 8 ], "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "precision_note": "One decimal place as printed", "within_person_comparable": true, "approval_change_pp": 3.9 }, { "country": "Colombia", "scope": "National presidential approval; context for subnational races", "pollster": "AtlasIntel / Bloomberg", "series_id": "atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug", "fieldwork_start": "2026-07-30", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-03", "publication_date": null, "report_month": "2026-07", "sample": 2191, "margin_of_error_pp": 2, "methodology": "Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin", "measure": "Presidential job approval", "incumbent_candidate": "Gustavo Petro", "incumbent_share": 46.4, "opposition_candidate": "Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)", "opposition_share": 51.1, "approve_pct": 46.4, "disapprove_pct": 51.1, "unsure_pct": 2.5, "candidate_label_note": "Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares", "interpretation": "Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.", "local_forecast": "Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability", "source_type": "Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6", "url": "https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf", "source_sha256": "b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c", "source_pages": [ 6, 8 ], "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "precision_note": "One decimal place as printed", "within_person_comparable": false, "approval_change_pp": null }, { "country": "Colombia", "scope": "National presidential approval; context for subnational races", "pollster": "AtlasIntel / Bloomberg", "series_id": "atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-30", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-03", "publication_date": null, "report_month": "2026-08", "sample": 1904, "margin_of_error_pp": 2, "methodology": "Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin", "measure": "Presidential job approval", "incumbent_candidate": "Abelardo de la Espriella", "incumbent_share": 51.8, "opposition_candidate": "Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)", "opposition_share": 43.2, "approve_pct": 51.8, "disapprove_pct": 43.2, "unsure_pct": 5, "candidate_label_note": "Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares", "interpretation": "The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.", "local_forecast": "Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability", "source_type": "Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6", "url": "https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf", "source_sha256": "4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4", "source_pages": [ 6, 8 ], "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "precision_note": "One decimal place as printed", "within_person_comparable": false, "approval_change_pp": null }, { "country": "Peru", "scope": "National presidential approval; context for subnational races", "pollster": "AtlasIntel / Bloomberg", "series_id": "atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug", "fieldwork_start": "2026-07-30", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-03", "publication_date": null, "report_month": "2026-07", "sample": 982, "margin_of_error_pp": 3, "methodology": "Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin", "measure": "Presidential job approval", "incumbent_candidate": "José Balcázar", "incumbent_share": 23.2, "opposition_candidate": "Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)", "opposition_share": 56.2, "approve_pct": 23.2, "disapprove_pct": 56.2, "unsure_pct": 20.6, "candidate_label_note": "Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares", "interpretation": "Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.", "local_forecast": "Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability", "source_type": "Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6", "url": "https://cdn.atlasintel.org/606fac14-0205-4bc1-a7f2-b96460e93be8.pdf", "source_sha256": "50afb9a89f632161f470d9ecc483e9352a384680d74e93358ef0594a25ad5986", "source_pages": [ 6, 8 ], "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "precision_note": "One decimal place as printed", "within_person_comparable": false, "approval_change_pp": null }, { "country": "Peru", "scope": "National presidential approval; context for subnational races", "pollster": "AtlasIntel / Bloomberg", "series_id": "atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-30", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-03", "publication_date": null, "report_month": "2026-08", "sample": 1769, "margin_of_error_pp": 2, "methodology": "Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin", "measure": "Presidential job approval", "incumbent_candidate": "Keiko Fujimori", "incumbent_share": 42.8, "opposition_candidate": "Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)", "opposition_share": 40.3, "approve_pct": 42.8, "disapprove_pct": 40.3, "unsure_pct": 16.9, "candidate_label_note": "Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares", "interpretation": "The July question evaluates outgoing José Balcázar and August evaluates Keiko Fujimori. No within-president change is computed. The new administration has a small positive approval balance and 16.9% unsure; this does not establish movement in regional or municipal voting intentions.", "local_forecast": "Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability", "source_type": "Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6", "url": "https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/pe_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_7dc5118dfa63ea44.pdf", "source_sha256": "aad2fa565f83fde6024b8ef8b886e0a5344bd41bf22e5f1ccb5cd0f96074219f", "source_pages": [ 6, 8 ], "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "precision_note": "One decimal place as printed", "within_person_comparable": false, "approval_change_pp": null }, { "country": "Venezuela", "scope": "National presidential approval; context for subnational races", "pollster": "AtlasIntel / Bloomberg", "series_id": "atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug", "fieldwork_start": "2026-07-30", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-03", "publication_date": null, "report_month": "2026-07", "sample": 1110, "margin_of_error_pp": 3, "methodology": "Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin", "measure": "Presidential job approval", "incumbent_candidate": "Delcy Rodríguez", "incumbent_share": 22, "opposition_candidate": "Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)", "opposition_share": 64.5, "approve_pct": 22, "disapprove_pct": 64.5, "unsure_pct": 13.5, "candidate_label_note": "Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares", "interpretation": "Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ", "local_forecast": "Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability", "source_type": "Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6", "url": "https://cdn.atlasintel.org/99efb203-0c0f-4096-9627-91d02c336185.pdf", "source_sha256": "8fffa9b7dfec36898c1bb4a05d8b1b10a3b2d1a4a59bba645ea07c039aa76db9", "source_pages": [ 6, 8 ], "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "precision_note": "One decimal place as printed", "within_person_comparable": true, "approval_change_pp": null }, { "country": "Venezuela", "scope": "National presidential approval; context for subnational races", "pollster": "AtlasIntel / Bloomberg", "series_id": "atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-30", "fieldwork_end": "2026-09-03", "publication_date": null, "report_month": "2026-08", "sample": 1922, "margin_of_error_pp": 2, "methodology": "Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin", "measure": "Presidential job approval", "incumbent_candidate": "Delcy Rodríguez", "incumbent_share": 24.6, "opposition_candidate": "Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)", "opposition_share": 60.5, "approve_pct": 24.6, "disapprove_pct": 60.5, "unsure_pct": 14.9, "candidate_label_note": "Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares", "interpretation": "Approval rose 2.6 points and disapproval fell 4.0 points; the approval movement is within combined reported survey uncertainty. Disapproval remains much higher than approval. No local turnover forecast is inferred, and electoral access conditions need separate assessment.", "local_forecast": "Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability", "source_type": "Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6", "url": "https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/vz_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_9eba722f82e61ac0.pdf", "source_sha256": "c37e0d862d2f26098b49583ea2efc551c2f6658b70b314bd820a26b26f0deffa", "source_pages": [ 6, 8 ], "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "precision_note": "One decimal place as printed", "within_person_comparable": true, "approval_change_pp": 2.6 }, { "country": "Paraguay", "office_ids": [ "PY-00-000-M" ], "scope": "Asunción mayor", "series_id": "oee_paraguay_2026", "pollster": "Grau & Asociados", "fieldwork_start": "2026-07-23", "fieldwork_end": "2026-07-24", "publication_date": null, "sample": null, "margin_of_error_pp": null, "measure": "Municipal vote intention", "incumbent_candidate": "Camilo Pérez (ANR)", "incumbent_share": 41.2, "opposition_candidate": "Soledad Núñez (opposition alliance)", "opposition_share": 28.7, "candidate_label_note": "Leading candidate labels do not imply incumbent officeholder", "interpretation": "Pérez leads in two separately reported polls. Different pollsters and incomplete technical details prevent averaging or a time-trend estimate. This local evidence does not imply the same result across Paraguay.", "local_forecast": "Reported lead, without calibrated probability; full technical sheet unavailable", "source_type": "Secondary summary by electoral observatory", "url": "https://oeeparaguay.org/municipales-2026-como-se-mueve-el-mapa-electoral-en-las-principales-ciudades-del-paraguay/", "retrieved": "2026-09-13" }, { "country": "Paraguay", "office_ids": [ "PY-00-000-M" ], "scope": "Asunción mayor", "series_id": "oee_paraguay_2026", "pollster": "MultiTarget", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-06", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-10", "publication_date": null, "sample": 760, "margin_of_error_pp": null, "measure": "Municipal vote intention", "incumbent_candidate": "Camilo Pérez (ANR)", "incumbent_share": 47.63, "opposition_candidate": "Soledad Núñez (opposition alliance)", "opposition_share": 35, "candidate_label_note": "Leading candidate labels do not imply incumbent officeholder", "interpretation": "Pérez leads in two separately reported polls. Different pollsters and incomplete technical details prevent averaging or a time-trend estimate. This local evidence does not imply the same result across Paraguay.", "local_forecast": "Reported lead, without calibrated probability; full technical sheet unavailable", "source_type": "Secondary summary by electoral observatory", "url": "https://oeeparaguay.org/municipales-2026-como-se-mueve-el-mapa-electoral-en-las-principales-ciudades-del-paraguay/", "retrieved": "2026-09-13" }, { "country": "Brazil", "office_ids": [ "BR-RR-G" ], "scope": "Roraima governor", "pollster": "Quaest", "fieldwork_start": "2026-08-23", "fieldwork_end": "2026-08-26", "publication_date": "2026-08-27", "sample": 804, "margin_of_error_pp": 3, "confidence_level": 95, "measure": "Prompted governor preference; all respondents", "incumbent_candidate": "Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos; acting governor)", "incumbent_share": 27, "opposition_candidate": "Arthur Henrique (PL)", "opposition_share": 60, "registration": "RR-04765/2026; BR-08926/2026", "interpretation": "Arthur Henrique leads acting governor Soldado Sampaio by 33 points in this snapshot. Rosi Aires 1%; Farah Mesquita and Clebio Genuino 0%; undecided 9%; blank/null/abstention 3%. Published rounded categories sum to 100%. The June supplementary result remains judicially unresolved in recovered evidence.", "local_forecast": "Poll suggests substantial electoral pressure on the acting administration; no calibrated win probability or resolved certification is inferred.", "source_type": "Secondary report of Quaest poll commissioned by Rede Amazonica", "url": "https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/08/quaest-mostra-arthur-henrique-com-60-contra-27-de-soldado-sampaio-pelo-governo-de-roraima.shtml", "source_sha256": "f7e703f44d9aaefc0bbfe363221fe8ae089c35256970aa2951301244238ddca1", "retrieved": "2026-09-13T22:48:21Z" } ], "interpretation": "Lower three-cycle counts reflect newly identified source exclusions. They are not overwritten to preserve an earlier headline. Alternative baselines do not count as new actual election histories." }