{"country":"Brazil","coverage":{"country":"Brazil","status":"Results imported; completion checks remain","units":62,"historical_units":0,"histories":201,"party_rows":2817,"three_votes":52,"three_seats":31,"score_ready":1,"note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","date":"2026-10-04","denominator_status":"Eligible-office denominator not closed","file":"Brazil_Returns.xlsx","comparison_ci_available":52,"grouped_volatility_available":26},"offices":[{"id":"BR-AC-G","country":"Brazil","region":"AC","name":"Acre","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2022,2018,2014],"gaps":[32.544538209095165,19.162454804400163,2.5709416520733797],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-AC-G|2022|Decisive governor round 1|0","BR-AC-G|2018|Decisive governor round 1|1","BR-AC-G|2014|Decisive governor round 2|2"],"all_keys":["BR-AC-G|2022|Decisive governor round 1|0","BR-AC-G|2018|Decisive governor round 1|1","BR-AC-G|2014|Decisive governor round 2|2"],"shares":[[0.5675105485232067,0.242065166432255],[0.5370555965819179,0.34543104853791634],[0.5128547082603669,0.4871452917396331]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Mailza Assis (Progressistas); Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending; retrieved 12 Sep 2026","current_government_source":"https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lista_de_governadores_das_unidades_federativas_do_Brasil","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-AC-A","country":"Brazil","region":"AC","name":"Acre","office":"State legislative assembly","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2022,2018,2014],"gaps":[2.7154232737453228,1.327684494319664,7.488274140966771],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-AC-A|2022|Legislative first round|3","BR-AC-A|2018|Legislative first round|4","BR-AC-A|2014|Legislative first round|5"],"all_keys":["BR-AC-A|2022|Legislative first round|3","BR-AC-A|2018|Legislative first round|4","BR-AC-A|2014|Legislative first round|5"],"shares":[[0.13236340271244004,0.1052091699749868],[0.10842756703610584,0.0951507220929092],[0.15647548543330192,0.0815927440236342]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":86.11806636680114,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PT","PSDB","MDB","PP","PSB","PDT","PSD","PSOL","PL","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.123964476673475,4.091149000619593,9.091263740046355,10.52091699749868,4.368818413383207,13.236340271244005,8.144433990407784,0.5115083645042109,10.194827546641577,35.71677719898113],[10.842756703610585,7.976632752899974,9.51507220929092,8.826590051695968,4.7770327328052895,6.359967561438301,2.241274959870437,1.0776970534973123,1.8324438245925443,46.55053215029866],null],"volatility_latest":22.83624240819478,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-AL-G","country":"Brazil","region":"AL","name":"Alagoas","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2022,2022,2018],"gaps":[4.660087237856764,null,66.23861173376532],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation. Latest three actual selections include a legislative election; ordinary popular-vote CI is withheld.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://www.al.al.leg.br/comunicacao/noticias/democratica-e-constitucional-assembleia-realiza-eleicao-indireta-para-o-governo-do-estado","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-AL-G|2022|Decisive governor round 2|6","BR-AL-G|BR-AL-G-2022-05-15-indirect|Single legislative ballot|164","BR-AL-G|2018|Decisive governor round 1|7"],"all_keys":["BR-AL-G|2022|Decisive governor round 2|6","BR-AL-G|BR-AL-G-2022-05-15-indirect|Single legislative ballot|164","BR-AL-G|2018|Decisive governor round 1|7","BR-AL-G|2014|Decisive governor round 1|8"],"shares":[[0.5233004361892838,0.47669956381071615],[null,null],[0.7729643582689295,0.11057824093127622]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://www.al.al.leg.br/comunicacao/noticias/democratica-e-constitucional-assembleia-realiza-eleicao-indireta-para-o-governo-do-estado","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Paulo Dantas (Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (1980)); Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending; retrieved 12 Sep 2026","current_government_source":"https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lista_de_governadores_das_unidades_federativas_do_Brasil","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":3,"Primary assembly report":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-AL-A","country":"Brazil","region":"AL","name":"Alagoas","office":"State legislative assembly","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2022,2018,2014],"gaps":[31.977239626208807,5.200616902238911,1.3180626431364804],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-AL-A|2022|Legislative first round|9","BR-AL-A|2018|Legislative first round|10","BR-AL-A|2014|Legislative first round|11"],"all_keys":["BR-AL-A|2022|Legislative first round|9","BR-AL-A|2018|Legislative first round|10","BR-AL-A|2014|Legislative first round|11"],"shares":[[0.46592427079658294,0.14615187453449488],[0.19407752458283223,0.14207135556044312],[0.13334704784615675,0.12016642141479196]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PT","PSDB","MDB","PP","PSB","PDT","PSD","PSOL","PL","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.357158149619002,0,46.59242707965829,14.615187453449487,0.9910472244586571,0.41244885097503536,2.279294030377319,0.10149896420397492,3.829399720772309,26.821538526485924],[3.1640640407096647,6.926312003588569,19.407752458283223,10.269135969184303,0.7629051094988104,3.3641494764553657,6.81172916467506,1.1331266742030175,1.85084041899615,46.30998468440583],null],"volatility_latest":34.93052163128559,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-AM-G","country":"Brazil","region":"AM","name":"Amazonas","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":5,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2026,2022,2018],"gaps":[null,13.307274204187998,17.004947469910064],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"Last three governor election cycles are 2022, October 2018 and the 2017-08-06 special election completed 2017-08-27. The annulled 2014 return is retained only as archival evidence. Special first round and runoff are one event. Secondary full special return is available; primary certification remains pending. Latest three actual selections include a legislative election; ordinary popular-vote CI is withheld.","sources":["https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elei%C3%A7%C3%A3o_indireta_para_governador_do_Amazonas_em_2026","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Amazonas_gubernatorial_special_election","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-AM-G|BR-AM-G-2026-05-04-indirect|Single legislative ballot|165","BR-AM-G|2022|Decisive governor round 2|12","BR-AM-G|2018|Decisive governor round 2|13"],"all_keys":["BR-AM-G|BR-AM-G-2026-05-04-indirect|Single legislative ballot|165","BR-AM-G|2022|Decisive governor round 2|12","BR-AM-G|2018|Decisive governor round 2|13","BR-AM-G|BR-AM-G-SPECIAL-2017-08-06|Decisive runoff; first round preserved within this event|162","BR-AM-G|2014|Decisive governor round 2|14"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.56653637102094,0.43346362897906004],[0.5850247373495503,0.4149752626504497]],"cycle_sources":["https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elei%C3%A7%C3%A3o_indireta_para_governador_do_Amazonas_em_2026","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Roberto Cidade (UNIÃO), elected by state legislators on 4 May 2026; current-directory snapshot checked 12 Sep 2026, secondary evidence","current_government_source":"https://folhams.com.br/2026/05/04/roberto-cidade-e-eleito-governador-do-amazonas-em-votacao-na-aleam/","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Secondary current-directory and contemporary-election reporting","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Secondary full return":1,"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":2,"Complete published candidate vector; primary final certification pending":1,"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status; annulled result superseded by special election, archival only":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-AM-A","country":"Brazil","region":"AM","name":"Amazonas","office":"State legislative assembly","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2022,2018,2014],"gaps":[7.294311443116207,0.8848696842002894,2.5463445806229927],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-AM-A|2022|Legislative first round|15","BR-AM-A|2018|Legislative first round|16","BR-AM-A|2014|Legislative first round|17"],"all_keys":["BR-AM-A|2022|Legislative first round|15","BR-AM-A|2018|Legislative first round|16","BR-AM-A|2014|Legislative first round|17"],"shares":[[0.20199084501925452,0.12904773058809244],[0.10289831013422004,0.09404961329221714],[0.11789398168522461,0.09243053587899468]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":75.51658885403944,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PT","PSDB","MDB","PP","PSB","PDT","PSD","PSOL","PL","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[3.783987573858968,1.8193098044874547,5.655733498500337,0,3.246161670923714,1.0405419618527225,0,0.20298672482062732,9.307716188483463,74.94356257707271],[3.957794997085089,3.855507616497222,3.0847749985048156,9.404961329221717,4.576885175987394,2.8083195972001205,8.950145801438396,0.6746495539319995,6.018242926380474,56.66871800375278],null],"volatility_latest":24.135276335418446,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-AP-G","country":"Brazil","region":"AP","name":"Amapá","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2022,2018,2014],"gaps":[11.123535134978148,4.6961212839322855,21.163912016217097],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-AP-G|2022|Decisive governor round 1|18","BR-AP-G|2018|Decisive governor round 2|19","BR-AP-G|2014|Decisive governor round 2|20"],"all_keys":["BR-AP-G|2022|Decisive governor round 1|18","BR-AP-G|2018|Decisive governor round 2|19","BR-AP-G|2014|Decisive governor round 2|20"],"shares":[[0.5377052989268548,0.42646994757707335],[0.5234806064196614,0.47651939358033857],[0.6058195600810855,0.3941804399189145]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":49.00325666105858,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Clécio Luís (União Brasil); Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending; retrieved 12 Sep 2026","current_government_source":"https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lista_de_governadores_das_unidades_federativas_do_Brasil","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-AP-A","country":"Brazil","region":"AP","name":"Amapá","office":"State legislative assembly","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2022,2018,2014],"gaps":[0.761482790061546,4.831780172595452,2.2959650836283725],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-AP-A|2022|Legislative first round|21","BR-AP-A|2018|Legislative first round|22","BR-AP-A|2014|Legislative first round|23"],"all_keys":["BR-AP-A|2022|Legislative first round|21","BR-AP-A|2018|Legislative first round|22","BR-AP-A|2014|Legislative first round|23"],"shares":[[0.11972874401641213,0.11211391611579667],[0.11395464721063239,0.06563684548467788],[0.1147499287836243,0.09179027794734057]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":89.319898829108,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PT","PSDB","MDB","PP","PSB","PDT","PSD","PSOL","PL","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.0826210014436595,2.6869158878504673,7.537421168604209,6.025140566826229,1.259640224906922,11.972874401641212,6.518786566370337,1.4536319428614848,7.224944913000532,53.23802332649495],[0,4.194153769110819,2.4600181966477512,5.910687679580337,4.660969678038332,6.1576067689546345,4.662457142432153,2.5177813972744696,11.39546472106324,58.04086064689826],null],"volatility_latest":14.946073917270768,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-BA-G","country":"Brazil","region":"BA","name":"Bahia","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2022,2018,2014],"gaps":[5.578105745552236,53.24494033235381,17.136935569690202],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-BA-G|2022|Decisive governor round 2|24","BR-BA-G|2018|Decisive governor round 1|25","BR-BA-G|2014|Decisive governor round 1|26"],"all_keys":["BR-BA-G|2022|Decisive governor round 2|24","BR-BA-G|2018|Decisive governor round 1|25","BR-BA-G|2014|Decisive governor round 1|26"],"shares":[[0.5278905287277612,0.47210947127223885],[0.7550220355300513,0.2225726322065132],[0.5452510202271318,0.37388166453022975]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Jerônimo Rodrigues (Partido dos Trabalhadores); Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending; retrieved 12 Sep 2026","current_government_source":"https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lista_de_governadores_das_unidades_federativas_do_Brasil","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-BA-A","country":"Brazil","region":"BA","name":"Bahia","office":"State legislative assembly","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2022,2018,2014],"gaps":[0.8532177266105272,3.5120956948235573,9.924562946659568],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-BA-A|2022|Legislative first round|27","BR-BA-A|2018|Legislative first round|28","BR-BA-A|2014|Legislative first round|29"],"all_keys":["BR-BA-A|2022|Legislative first round|27","BR-BA-A|2018|Legislative first round|28","BR-BA-A|2014|Legislative first round|29"],"shares":[[0.1536336145057344,0.14510143723962912],[0.16442273800280433,0.12930178105456874],[0.20047731165850272,0.10123168219190705]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":87.2099218046033,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. 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Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-CE-G|2022|Decisive governor round 1|30","BR-CE-G|2018|Decisive governor round 1|31","BR-CE-G|2014|Decisive governor round 2|32"],"all_keys":["BR-CE-G|2022|Decisive governor round 1|30","BR-CE-G|2018|Decisive governor round 1|31","BR-CE-G|2014|Decisive governor round 2|32"],"shares":[[0.5401727906638568,0.3172239392547489],[0.799597421071242,0.11295659857806939],[0.533512166100863,0.4664878338991369]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Elmano de Freitas (Partido dos Trabalhadores); Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending; retrieved 12 Sep 2026","current_government_source":"https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lista_de_governadores_das_unidades_federativas_do_Brasil","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-CE-A","country":"Brazil","region":"CE","name":"Ceará","office":"State legislative assembly","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2022,2018,2014],"gaps":[8.559275082107888,20.851027315381597,11.80357819608339],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-CE-A|2022|Legislative first round|33","BR-CE-A|2018|Legislative first round|34","BR-CE-A|2014|Legislative first round|35"],"all_keys":["BR-CE-A|2022|Legislative first round|33","BR-CE-A|2018|Legislative first round|34","BR-CE-A|2014|Legislative first round|35"],"shares":[[0.245686323167368,0.16009357234628913],[0.29423200748829625,0.08572173433448028],[0.20604513388595933,0.08800935192512543]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":37.143844682562246,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. 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This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-DF-G|2022|Decisive governor round 1|36","BR-DF-G|2018|Decisive governor round 2|37","BR-DF-G|2014|Decisive governor round 2|38"],"all_keys":["BR-DF-G|2022|Decisive governor round 1|36","BR-DF-G|2018|Decisive governor round 2|37","BR-DF-G|2014|Decisive governor round 2|38"],"shares":[[0.5030884393940218,0.26258350991484813],[0.6978860073244381,0.30211399267556194],[0.5555714435254508,0.4444285564745492]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. 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Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-DF-A|2022|Legislative first round|39","BR-DF-A|2018|Legislative first round|40","BR-DF-A|2014|Legislative first round|41"],"all_keys":["BR-DF-A|2022|Legislative first round|39","BR-DF-A|2018|Legislative first round|40","BR-DF-A|2014|Legislative first round|41"],"shares":[[0.13332595487390353,0.09366513142580107],[0.07141158775236503,0.06333270105714797],[0.11624078438828662,0.09550012620757703]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":85.85288705225122,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. 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Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-ES-G|2022|Decisive governor round 2|42","BR-ES-G|2018|Decisive governor round 1|43","BR-ES-G|2014|Decisive governor round 1|44"],"all_keys":["BR-ES-G|2022|Decisive governor round 2|42","BR-ES-G|2018|Decisive governor round 1|43","BR-ES-G|2014|Decisive governor round 1|44"],"shares":[[0.5379521234698428,0.46204787653015716],[0.5548949154401928,0.2722003455983307],[0.5343753698430137,0.39343075020135176]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":27.777309459731903,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. 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This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-ES-A|2022|Legislative first round|45","BR-ES-A|2018|Legislative first round|46","BR-ES-A|2014|Legislative first round|47"],"all_keys":["BR-ES-A|2022|Legislative first round|45","BR-ES-A|2018|Legislative first round|46","BR-ES-A|2014|Legislative first round|47"],"shares":[[0.1283534650860468,0.12497340055094713],[0.08333534118737482,0.08249614363863139],[0.13539497296621064,0.09202001225798111]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":96.69135297174711,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. 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This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-GO-G|2022|Decisive governor round 1|48","BR-GO-G|2018|Decisive governor round 1|49","BR-GO-G|2014|Decisive governor round 2|50"],"all_keys":["BR-GO-G|2022|Decisive governor round 1|48","BR-GO-G|2018|Decisive governor round 1|49","BR-GO-G|2014|Decisive governor round 2|50"],"shares":[[0.518090674441263,0.25204481709187815],[0.5972867886738215,0.16140892427847167],[0.5743602982251673,0.4256397017748327]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. 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Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-GO-A|2022|Legislative first round|51","BR-GO-A|2018|Legislative first round|52","BR-GO-A|2014|Legislative first round|53"],"all_keys":["BR-GO-A|2022|Legislative first round|51","BR-GO-A|2018|Legislative first round|52","BR-GO-A|2014|Legislative first round|53"],"shares":[[0.1296062830547043,0.12687375100465073],[0.1277130497645002,0.08149954120045841],[0.2094700096058048,0.11812429120513941]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":87.68092818034438,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. 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","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. 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This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-MA-A|2022|Legislative first round|57","BR-MA-A|2018|Legislative first round|58","BR-MA-A|2014|Legislative first round|59"],"all_keys":["BR-MA-A|2022|Legislative first round|57","BR-MA-A|2018|Legislative first round|58","BR-MA-A|2014|Legislative first round|59"],"shares":[[0.23695892643018956,0.10500911074859368],[0.13500814578576506,0.13241623506541964],[0.10696890121294574,0.07599917426591582]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":58.477782340117926,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. 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This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-MG-G|2022|Decisive governor round 1|60","BR-MG-G|2018|Decisive governor round 2|61","BR-MG-G|2014|Decisive governor round 1|62"],"all_keys":["BR-MG-G|2022|Decisive governor round 1|60","BR-MG-G|2018|Decisive governor round 2|61","BR-MG-G|2014|Decisive governor round 1|62"],"shares":[[0.5619535851820185,0.35088413963358933],[0.7180470967054083,0.28195290329459166],[0.5297692489304092,0.418916668230757]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. 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","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. 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Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. 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Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-MS-G|2022|Decisive governor round 2|66","BR-MS-G|2018|Decisive governor round 2|67","BR-MS-G|2014|Decisive governor round 2|68"],"all_keys":["BR-MS-G|2022|Decisive governor round 2|66","BR-MS-G|2018|Decisive governor round 2|67","BR-MS-G|2014|Decisive governor round 2|68"],"shares":[[0.5690325369651833,0.43096746303481676],[0.523531921603547,0.47646807839645305],[0.5533796475611149,0.4466203524388852]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":46.182936583714465,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. 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Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-MS-A|2022|Legislative first round|69","BR-MS-A|2018|Legislative first round|70","BR-MS-A|2014|Legislative first round|71"],"all_keys":["BR-MS-A|2022|Legislative first round|69","BR-MS-A|2018|Legislative first round|70","BR-MS-A|2014|Legislative first round|71"],"shares":[[0.2159625188892661,0.11537323387239719],[0.21898165793327706,0.12666415693756933],[0.21410530997986174,0.14223367079891905]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":52.38200738653603,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PT","PSDB","MDB","PP","PSB","PDT","PSD","PSOL","PL","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[11.537323387239718,21.59625188892661,10.731055906219112,8.743664772983317,3.370926602996446,5.417050961212038,4.721039713273709,0.5626973421338036,9.175226295660952,24.14476312935429],[9.287556498132902,21.898165793327706,11.129089708785688,3.0776917039423792,1.1696740547791245,7.153507346413543,5.52880849441975,0.3830844258838806,1.2045920248291708,39.167829949485856],null],"volatility_latest":18.267239693446783,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. 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This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-MT-G|2022|Decisive governor round 1|72","BR-MT-G|2018|Decisive governor round 1|73","BR-MT-G|2014|Decisive governor round 1|74"],"all_keys":["BR-MT-G|2022|Decisive governor round 1|72","BR-MT-G|2018|Decisive governor round 1|73","BR-MT-G|2014|Decisive governor round 1|74"],"shares":[[0.6845232684687252,0.16408919722984477],[0.5868569919679444,0.19563552993543898],[0.572536659559639,0.32445607204534765]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. 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Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-MT-A|2022|Legislative first round|75","BR-MT-A|2018|Legislative first round|76","BR-MT-A|2014|Legislative first round|77"],"all_keys":["BR-MT-A|2022|Legislative first round|75","BR-MT-A|2018|Legislative first round|76","BR-MT-A|2014|Legislative first round|77"],"shares":[[0.14926507137496262,0.14182927527895808],[0.10410547218110508,0.0960061874760364],[0.15660166510928966,0.1421355095783624]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":95.83106068889197,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. 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Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-PA-G|2022|Decisive governor round 1|78","BR-PA-G|2018|Decisive governor round 2|79","BR-PA-G|2014|Decisive governor round 2|80"],"all_keys":["BR-PA-G|2022|Decisive governor round 1|78","BR-PA-G|2018|Decisive governor round 2|79","BR-PA-G|2014|Decisive governor round 2|80"],"shares":[[0.7040734394025324,0.27127781515789884],[0.5543064144907868,0.44569358550921323],[0.5191866824118773,0.48081331758812274]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. 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This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-PA-A|2022|Legislative first round|81","BR-PA-A|2018|Legislative first round|82","BR-PA-A|2014|Legislative first round|83"],"all_keys":["BR-PA-A|2022|Legislative first round|81","BR-PA-A|2018|Legislative first round|82","BR-PA-A|2014|Legislative first round|83"],"shares":[[0.276162691435738,0.07923064196662186],[0.1481445081182435,0.11644932094182375],[0.14535766822073895,0.14136893591035682]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":35.96667046728308,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. 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This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-PB-G|2022|Decisive governor round 2|84","BR-PB-G|2018|Decisive governor round 1|85","BR-PB-G|2014|Decisive governor round 2|86"],"all_keys":["BR-PB-G|2022|Decisive governor round 2|84","BR-PB-G|2018|Decisive governor round 1|85","BR-PB-G|2014|Decisive governor round 2|86"],"shares":[[0.5251284237560634,0.4748715762439366],[0.5818269677925546,0.23409307606173896],[0.5260618712181985,0.47393812878180147]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":30.156674864919776,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Lucas Ribeiro (Progressistas); Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending; retrieved 12 Sep 2026","current_government_source":"https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lista_de_governadores_das_unidades_federativas_do_Brasil","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-PB-A","country":"Brazil","region":"PB","name":"Paraíba","office":"State legislative assembly","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2022,2018,2014],"gaps":[4.240192593391614,11.649958687052594,1.2801271518327848],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-PB-A|2022|Legislative first round|87","BR-PB-A|2018|Legislative first round|88","BR-PB-A|2014|Legislative first round|89"],"all_keys":["BR-PB-A|2022|Legislative first round|87","BR-PB-A|2018|Legislative first round|88","BR-PB-A|2014|Legislative first round|89"],"shares":[[0.19018731142602818,0.14778538549211204],[0.20340496681558826,0.08690537994506231],[0.12049915255333739,0.10769788103500953]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":69.16442061332988,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PT","PSDB","MDB","PP","PSB","PDT","PSD","PSOL","PL","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[5.8145749265762205,9.365794169155729,4.814567349072848,10.420850079987234,14.778538549211204,0.3310923238553624,4.58550387945886,0.3914894830939214,8.525761059923342,40.97182817966528],[3.6310546622697015,5.669988763853243,4.315509051069627,5.142596695451676,20.340496681558825,0.6497953851366008,2.4610817411396524,0.4492021360865549,1.9046853025838262,55.435589580850284],null],"volatility_latest":20.402135247806502,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-PE-G","country":"Brazil","region":"PE","name":"Pernambuco","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2022,2018,2014],"gaps":[17.40586110132231,14.713368304052295,37.009879557542064],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-PE-G|2022|Decisive governor round 2|90","BR-PE-G|2018|Decisive governor round 1|91","BR-PE-G|2014|Decisive governor round 1|92"],"all_keys":["BR-PE-G|2022|Decisive governor round 2|90","BR-PE-G|2018|Decisive governor round 1|91","BR-PE-G|2014|Decisive governor round 1|92"],"shares":[[0.5870293055066116,0.41297069449338847],[0.5070407978504771,0.3599071148099541],[0.6807833691852284,0.3106845736098077]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":7.207424461183598,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Raquel Lyra (Partido Social Democrático (2011)); Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending; retrieved 12 Sep 2026","current_government_source":"https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lista_de_governadores_das_unidades_federativas_do_Brasil","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-PE-A","country":"Brazil","region":"PE","name":"Pernambuco","office":"State legislative assembly","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2022,2018,2014],"gaps":[9.954274236898348,5.501287500944819,20.058718576675254],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. 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This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-PE-A|2022|Legislative first round|93","BR-PE-A|2018|Legislative first round|94","BR-PE-A|2014|Legislative first round|95"],"all_keys":["BR-PE-A|2022|Legislative first round|93","BR-PE-A|2018|Legislative first round|94","BR-PE-A|2014|Legislative first round|95"],"shares":[[0.2468684583985312,0.14732571602954772],[0.23492098886988294,0.17990811386043476],[0.2956115109789355,0.09502432521218294]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":51.85588674955011,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. 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Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-PI-G|2022|Decisive governor round 1|96","BR-PI-G|2018|Decisive governor round 1|97","BR-PI-G|2014|Decisive governor round 1|98"],"all_keys":["BR-PI-G|2022|Decisive governor round 1|96","BR-PI-G|2018|Decisive governor round 1|97","BR-PI-G|2014|Decisive governor round 1|98"],"shares":[[0.5762030420761806,0.4194679647790059],[0.5564509210666467,0.20484959797794278],[0.630838527227745,0.33250566402495224]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Rafael Fonteles (Partido dos Trabalhadores); Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending; retrieved 12 Sep 2026","current_government_source":"https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lista_de_governadores_das_unidades_federativas_do_Brasil","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-PI-A","country":"Brazil","region":"PI","name":"Piauí","office":"State legislative assembly","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2022,2018,2014],"gaps":[5.695668103426403,2.4413764178064454,2.0444580258029514],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-PI-A|2022|Legislative first round|99","BR-PI-A|2018|Legislative first round|100","BR-PI-A|2014|Legislative first round|101"],"all_keys":["BR-PI-A|2022|Legislative first round|99","BR-PI-A|2018|Legislative first round|100","BR-PI-A|2014|Legislative first round|101"],"shares":[[0.3498100615130734,0.2928533804788094],[0.18456816726964895,0.1601544030915845],[0.17969603190667052,0.159251451648641]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":78.22870205010965,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. 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Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-PR-G|2022|Decisive governor round 1|102","BR-PR-G|2018|Decisive governor round 1|103","BR-PR-G|2014|Decisive governor round 1|104"],"all_keys":["BR-PR-G|2022|Decisive governor round 1|102","BR-PR-G|2018|Decisive governor round 1|103","BR-PR-G|2014|Decisive governor round 1|104"],"shares":[[0.6976206082971188,0.26275355235107284],[0.5999063531502673,0.15533587119036507],[0.5567156273434877,0.27560148849990984]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Ratinho Júnior (Partido Social Democrático (2011)); Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending; retrieved 12 Sep 2026","current_government_source":"https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lista_de_governadores_das_unidades_federativas_do_Brasil","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-PR-A","country":"Brazil","region":"PR","name":"Paraná","office":"State legislative assembly","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2022,2018,2014],"gaps":[13.35725406664571,2.056585517924386,4.926763508574915],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-PR-A|2022|Legislative first round|105","BR-PR-A|2018|Legislative first round|106","BR-PR-A|2014|Legislative first round|107"],"all_keys":["BR-PR-A|2022|Legislative first round|105","BR-PR-A|2018|Legislative first round|106","BR-PR-A|2014|Legislative first round|107"],"shares":[[0.2557792390440246,0.12220669837756751],[0.1086737341537549,0.08810787897451106],[0.18259749940704098,0.13332986432129182]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":54.379977768888835,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PT","PSDB","MDB","PP","PSB","PDT","PSD","PSOL","PL","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[11.34567082817217,3.259935847491872,4.122505143557413,7.990192906512708,1.9015810991762385,2.1641402269768033,25.577923904402464,0.38013794505967585,8.398112004099,34.85980009455165],[7.85342662872502,6.28111034442119,5.159816830808009,6.149759253028583,8.810787897451105,3.1242170733608203,10.867373415375491,0.4845543662357362,3.721626928684531,47.54732726190951],null],"volatility_latest":24.719713417372716,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-RJ-G","country":"Brazil","region":"RJ","name":"Rio de Janeiro","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2022,2018,2014],"gaps":[31.297701382294076,19.731156739231892,11.56670598076473],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation. TSE’s 2 June 2026 decision maintains Castro’s ineligibility but reports no majority to add cassation of the governor/vice diplomas; their prior resignations and the ordered replacement must not be collapsed into an asserted annulment of all 2022 governor votes. The recovered 31 March official report retains 8,400,962 valid governor votes. Replacement format, final selection and current control remain separately unresolved.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-RJ-G|2022|Decisive governor round 1|108","BR-RJ-G|2018|Decisive governor round 2|109","BR-RJ-G|2014|Decisive governor round 2|110"],"all_keys":["BR-RJ-G|2022|Decisive governor round 1|108","BR-RJ-G|2018|Decisive governor round 2|109","BR-RJ-G|2014|Decisive governor round 2|110"],"shares":[[0.5868718368205927,0.27389482299765194],[0.5986557836961595,0.40134421630384054],[0.5578335299038236,0.4421664700961763]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","office_ids":["BR-RJ-G"],"scope":"Rio de Janeiro governor","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-08","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-11","publication_date":"2026-09-11","sample":1204,"margin_of_error_pp":3,"measure":"Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents","incumbent_candidate":"Eduardo Paes (PSD)","incumbent_share":43,"opposition_candidate":"Douglas Ruas (PL)","opposition_share":25,"candidate_label_note":"Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status","registration":"RJ-09217/2026","interpretation":"Eduardo Paes (PSD) 43%, Douglas Ruas (PL) 25%. Numerical gap 18 percentage points. The reported point estimates show a lead at fieldwork time. Undecided 3%. Neither leading candidate is the interim governor. Later candidate eligibility decisions can change the ballot.","local_forecast":"Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag","source_type":"Poll publisher report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-eduardo-paes-lidera-com-49-dos-votos-validos-no-rio.shtml","source_sha256":"4842d4010f586661798c06bf54c0605523d5438c2b5a3d3c9a1deddf238d7bca","retrieved":"2026-09-12T12:13:29Z"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Ricardo Couto (interino) (Político sem partido); Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending; retrieved 12 Sep 2026","current_government_source":"https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lista_de_governadores_das_unidades_federativas_do_Brasil","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-RJ-A","country":"Brazil","region":"RJ","name":"Rio de Janeiro","office":"State legislative assembly","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2022,2018,2014],"gaps":[9.931813901730687,8.575074019959164,9.326673705652999],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation. The signed 31 March 2026 retotalization verifies the imported 2022 party totals and 70-seat allocation after Bacellar’s exclusion. All 70 elected names are recovered; this roster is the historical retotalization, not a September 2026 current-control claim.","sources":["https://www.tre-rj.jus.br/eleicoes/eleicoes-plebiscitos-e-referendos/eleicoes-anteriores/2022/resultado-da-votacao/arquivos-resultado-da-votacao/relatorio-resultado-da-totalizacao-31-03-2026","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-RJ-A|2022|Legislative first round|111","BR-RJ-A|2018|Legislative first round|112","BR-RJ-A|2014|Legislative first round|113"],"all_keys":["BR-RJ-A|2022|Legislative first round|111","BR-RJ-A|2018|Legislative first round|112","BR-RJ-A|2014|Legislative first round|113"],"shares":[[0.20609573688883046,0.10677759787152359],[0.15651786179124805,0.0707671215916564],[0.18903184342577006,0.09576510636924007]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.tre-rj.jus.br/eleicoes/eleicoes-plebiscitos-e-referendos/eleicoes-anteriores/2022/resultado-da-votacao/arquivos-resultado-da-votacao/relatorio-resultado-da-totalizacao-31-03-2026","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":52.678610412042694,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PT","PSDB","MDB","PP","PSB","PDT","PSD","PSOL","PL","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[8.850994620322561,0.4346933745859049,3.5240264187033574,4.94283995939066,2.643728559698958,3.0887731945954746,7.686984082286921,6.12780316357862,20.609573688883046,42.0905829379545],[4.522424596254179,2.9900929422865774,6.675705420377162,3.1389228558041204,2.4547093167370453,4.526270966278084,4.869374942854856,6.334867823444104,1.6885434897532443,62.79908764621062],null],"volatility_latest":28.0601457091787,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary signed retotalization report":1,"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":2},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-RN-G","country":"Brazil","region":"RN","name":"Rio Grande do Norte","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2022,2018,2014],"gaps":[36.08771912558626,15.19613501544248,8.837524944651868],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-RN-G|2022|Decisive governor round 1|114","BR-RN-G|2018|Decisive governor round 2|115","BR-RN-G|2014|Decisive governor round 2|116"],"all_keys":["BR-RN-G|2022|Decisive governor round 1|114","BR-RN-G|2018|Decisive governor round 2|115","BR-RN-G|2014|Decisive governor round 2|116"],"shares":[[0.5831116243314558,0.2222344330755932],[0.5759806750772124,0.4240193249227876],[0.5441876247232593,0.4558123752767406]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Fátima Bezerra (Partido dos Trabalhadores); Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending; retrieved 12 Sep 2026","current_government_source":"https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lista_de_governadores_das_unidades_federativas_do_Brasil","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-RN-A","country":"Brazil","region":"RN","name":"Rio Grande do Norte","office":"State legislative assembly","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2022,2018,2014],"gaps":[18.471136085188295,7.673287218564573,1.2045280707961616],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-RN-A|2022|Legislative first round|117","BR-RN-A|2018|Legislative first round|118","BR-RN-A|2014|Legislative first round|119"],"all_keys":["BR-RN-A|2022|Legislative first round|117","BR-RN-A|2018|Legislative first round|118","BR-RN-A|2014|Legislative first round|119"],"shares":[[0.31498864638654833,0.1302772855346654],[0.1774409062067824,0.10070803402113666],[0.1728206052416018,0.16077532453364018]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":32.47439688119018,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PT","PSDB","MDB","PP","PSB","PDT","PSD","PSOL","PL","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[11.98148033961647,31.49886463865483,4.88529767378267,0,1.7611907487486897,1.453691465889563,2.583262066062749,0.3526992646290036,13.027728553466538,32.45578524914948],[7.577811175734691,17.74409062067824,7.680483905210041,0.3043598727146022,1.3959173196660257,1.875216650254223,10.070803402113667,3.0381412397732084,5.718667125655348,44.59450868819995],null],"volatility_latest":25.832778038752224,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. 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Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-RO-G","country":"Brazil","region":"RO","name":"Rondônia","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2022,2018,2014],"gaps":[4.93242129553321,32.67635945046421,6.8519083969465555],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-RO-G|2022|Decisive governor round 2|120","BR-RO-G|2018|Decisive governor round 2|121","BR-RO-G|2014|Decisive governor round 2|122"],"all_keys":["BR-RO-G|2022|Decisive governor round 2|120","BR-RO-G|2018|Decisive governor round 2|121","BR-RO-G|2014|Decisive governor round 2|122"],"shares":[[0.5246621064776661,0.47533789352233397],[0.663381797252321,0.33661820274767895],[0.5342595419847328,0.4657404580152672]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":32.76224273923077,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Marcos Rocha (Partido Social Democrático (2011)); Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending; retrieved 12 Sep 2026","current_government_source":"https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lista_de_governadores_das_unidades_federativas_do_Brasil","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-RO-A","country":"Brazil","region":"RO","name":"Rondônia","office":"State legislative assembly","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2022,2018,2014],"gaps":[5.8010355517828,0.4852315859715173,5.145097695503608],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-RO-A|2022|Legislative first round|123","BR-RO-A|2018|Legislative first round|124","BR-RO-A|2014|Legislative first round|125"],"all_keys":["BR-RO-A|2022|Legislative first round|123","BR-RO-A|2018|Legislative first round|124","BR-RO-A|2014|Legislative first round|125"],"shares":[[0.15209941852991485,0.09408906301208685],[0.11520289366661342,0.11035057780689823],[0.1424220401932607,0.09097106323822463]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":79.29649711794252,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PT","PSDB","MDB","PP","PSB","PDT","PSD","PSOL","PL","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.256393449457499,2.8913689735159545,7.129464818222561,4.728425328980511,5.6211863101490325,1.1811219674325797,9.408906301208685,0.08048629937892371,8.792462313303632,55.910184238350624],[4.121380399275509,3.848420849114996,11.520289366661341,4.851376008829228,8.059087082555159,3.904946166683897,4.067674634364439,0.14930202645277452,2.0216192556649513,57.45590421039771],null],"volatility_latest":12.24708777466492,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-RR-G","country":"Brazil","region":"RR","name":"Roraima","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":6,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2018,2014,2010],"gaps":[6.686034025638321,9.708088707903208,0.8251514028512048],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation. 2022 election annulled. June 2026 replacement remains unresolved in recovered evidence; The official 2010 first round and runoff are now recovered; selected completed ordinary cycles are 2018, 2014 and 2010. Final judicial disposition of the 2026 replacement is still missing. The 2010 radio case was dismissed by the TSE on 29 November 2011; that report explicitly mentions other pending cases and does not certify an exhaustive litigation review.","sources":["https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elei%C3%A7%C3%A3o_suplementar_para_governador_de_Roraima_em_2026","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_secao/votacao_secao_2010_RR.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-RR-G|2018|Decisive governor round 2|127","BR-RR-G|2014|Decisive governor round 2|128","BR-RR-G|BR-RR-G-2010|Decisive governor round 2|168"],"all_keys":["BR-RR-G|BR-RR-G-2026-06-21-unresolved|Supplemental public ballot; outcome unresolved|166","BR-RR-G|2022|Decisive governor round 1|126","BR-RR-G|2018|Decisive governor round 2|127","BR-RR-G|2014|Decisive governor round 2|128","BR-RR-G|BR-RR-G-2010|Decisive governor round 2|168","BR-RR-G|BR-RR-G-2010|Governor first round; runoff in same election cycle|167"],"shares":[[0.5334301701281916,0.4665698298718084],[0.548540443539516,0.4514595564604839],[0.504125757014256,0.49587424298574395]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_secao/votacao_secao_2010_RR.zip"],"comparison_ci":64.96718915980462,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3},{"country":"Brazil","office_ids":["BR-RR-G"],"scope":"Roraima governor","pollster":"Quaest","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-23","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-26","publication_date":"2026-08-27","sample":804,"margin_of_error_pp":3,"confidence_level":95,"measure":"Prompted governor preference; all respondents","incumbent_candidate":"Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos; acting governor)","incumbent_share":27,"opposition_candidate":"Arthur Henrique (PL)","opposition_share":60,"registration":"RR-04765/2026; BR-08926/2026","interpretation":"Arthur Henrique leads acting governor Soldado Sampaio by 33 points in this snapshot. Rosi Aires 1%; Farah Mesquita and Clebio Genuino 0%; undecided 9%; blank/null/abstention 3%. Published rounded categories sum to 100%. The June supplementary result remains judicially unresolved in recovered evidence.","local_forecast":"Poll suggests substantial electoral pressure on the acting administration; no calibrated win probability or resolved certification is inferred.","source_type":"Secondary report of Quaest poll commissioned by Rede Amazonica","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/08/quaest-mostra-arthur-henrique-com-60-contra-27-de-soldado-sampaio-pelo-governo-de-roraima.shtml","source_sha256":"f7e703f44d9aaefc0bbfe363221fe8ae089c35256970aa2951301244238ddca1","retrieved":"2026-09-13T22:48:21Z"}],"current_government":"TRE-RR signed statement confirms Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos) as acting governor on 21 June 2026; the 27 August poll report still describes him as acting governor. Later definitive proclamation not verified.","current_government_source":"https://www.tse.jus.br/comunicacao/arquivos/nota-oficial-tre-rr-eleicao-suplementar-21-06.2026","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary dated acting-officeholder confirmation; subsequent secondary confirmation on 27 August 2026","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Mixed: secondary complete count; primary judicial-status and leading-vote confirmation":1,"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":3,"Primary official section results; party labels from same-election party file":2},"unresolved_event_count":2,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-RR-A","country":"Brazil","region":"RR","name":"Roraima","office":"State legislative assembly","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2022,2018,2014],"gaps":[4.366108822083184,0.24339242478115786,2.9408980094203407],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-RR-A|2022|Legislative first round|129","BR-RR-A|2018|Legislative first round|130","BR-RR-A|2014|Legislative first round|131"],"all_keys":["BR-RR-A|2022|Legislative first round|129","BR-RR-A|2018|Legislative first round|130","BR-RR-A|2014|Legislative first round|131"],"shares":[[0.13872865693405903,0.09506756871322718],[0.10543759841519783,0.10300367416738626],[0.11094542671621418,0.08153644662201077]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":85.06613589186853,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PT","PSDB","MDB","PP","PSB","PDT","PSD","PSOL","PL","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.7806941689133051,0.15158451599776185,8.597588890584465,9.506756871322718,0.7796259558811062,0.4428845143021856,4.152805330891703,0.18617427132611017,5.115553520864066,69.2863319599166],[1.5357003775757267,2.5270483059887234,7.662416823284401,4.42720238397589,4.38402668427558,0.39027446199691845,3.3952185029037776,0.3847716767409966,2.772557186637544,72.52078359662042],null],"volatility_latest":9.412913560504165,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-RS-G","country":"Brazil","region":"RS","name":"Rio Grande do Sul","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2022,2018,2014],"gaps":[14.242486961867186,7.245833760433378,22.4248268315022],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-RS-G|2022|Decisive governor round 2|132","BR-RS-G|2018|Decisive governor round 2|133","BR-RS-G|2014|Decisive governor round 2|134"],"all_keys":["BR-RS-G|2022|Decisive governor round 2|132","BR-RS-G|2018|Decisive governor round 2|133","BR-RS-G|2014|Decisive governor round 2|134"],"shares":[[0.5712124348093359,0.4287875651906641],[0.5362291688021669,0.4637708311978331],[0.612124134157511,0.387875865842489]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":35.19137505799728,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Eduardo Leite (Partido Social Democrático (2011)); Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending; retrieved 12 Sep 2026","current_government_source":"https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lista_de_governadores_das_unidades_federativas_do_Brasil","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-RS-A","country":"Brazil","region":"RS","name":"Rio Grande do Sul","office":"State legislative assembly","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2022,2018,2014],"gaps":[6.644856337901867,1.2233318916847153,5.485897855391082],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-RS-A|2022|Legislative first round|135","BR-RS-A|2018|Legislative first round|136","BR-RS-A|2014|Legislative first round|137"],"all_keys":["BR-RS-A|2022|Legislative first round|135","BR-RS-A|2018|Legislative first round|136","BR-RS-A|2014|Legislative first round|137"],"shares":[[0.17910071462697202,0.11265215124795336],[0.14516132117618355,0.1329280022593364],[0.19242815770464758,0.13756917915073677]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":75.48748422107178,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PT","PSDB","MDB","PP","PSB","PDT","PSD","PSOL","PL","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[17.910071462697207,7.212353749691957,10.227072066518092,11.265215124795334,2.6014332176862824,7.598087591878812,2.9408854967486757,4.647260250050399,8.444606459697596,27.15301458023564],[14.516132117618355,5.501932835173305,13.292800225933641,10.648809700817043,5.241236158912458,7.4057785241657,2.3147764114287783,3.121717053938005,2.9531885041652166,35.003628467847484],null],"volatility_latest":13.556144988253573,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. 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This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-SC-G|2022|Decisive governor round 2|138","BR-SC-G|2018|Decisive governor round 2|139","BR-SC-G|2014|Decisive governor round 1|140"],"all_keys":["BR-SC-G|2022|Decisive governor round 2|138","BR-SC-G|2018|Decisive governor round 2|139","BR-SC-G|2014|Decisive governor round 1|140"],"shares":[[0.7069352624340642,0.29306473756593576],[0.7109114563799043,0.28908854362009573],[0.5136452420538296,0.2990079973533394]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. 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Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-SC-A|2022|Legislative first round|141","BR-SC-A|2018|Legislative first round|142","BR-SC-A|2014|Legislative first round|143"],"all_keys":["BR-SC-A|2022|Legislative first round|141","BR-SC-A|2018|Legislative first round|142","BR-SC-A|2014|Legislative first round|143"],"shares":[[0.21945556933054547,0.12626534826360203],[0.16916056715432737,0.15099101322288194],[0.2251807970132066,0.18139927103995762]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":67.1284242915377,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. 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This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-SE-G|2022|Decisive governor round 2|144","BR-SE-G|2018|Decisive governor round 2|145","BR-SE-G|2014|Decisive governor round 1|146"],"all_keys":["BR-SE-G|2022|Decisive governor round 2|144","BR-SE-G|2018|Decisive governor round 2|145","BR-SE-G|2014|Decisive governor round 1|146"],"shares":[[0.5169503252841627,0.4830496747158373],[0.6472009469964125,0.35279905300358744],[0.5352228598271103,0.4136546304645094]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":39.591109262448555,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. 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","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. 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This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-SE-A|2022|Legislative first round|147","BR-SE-A|2018|Legislative first round|148","BR-SE-A|2014|Legislative first round|149"],"all_keys":["BR-SE-A|2022|Legislative first round|147","BR-SE-A|2018|Legislative first round|148","BR-SE-A|2014|Legislative first round|149"],"shares":[[0.16623301888731323,0.13119345623445752],[0.1344916296651866,0.12294210518420737],[0.13887999422295408,0.10684874496527597]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":86.1541400691125,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PT","PSDB","MDB","PP","PSB","PDT","PSD","PSOL","PL","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[6.812010604846168,0.26923155969336376,0.22804529666851636,8.929116057299053,2.860924430195039,4.327599317672688,16.623301888731323,4.910537024477465,12.160223606058738,42.87901021435764],[8.053915906636265,3.6261137945517823,8.779476179047162,0.47420646825873036,5.394309522380896,0.4711125945037801,13.44916296651866,1.2881765270610825,6.990185857434297,51.47334018360734],null],"volatility_latest":24.277933480462718,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-SP-G","country":"Brazil","region":"SP","name":"São Paulo","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2022,2018,2014],"gaps":[10.542314571857155,3.4917221029714582,35.78098292590742],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-SP-G|2022|Decisive governor round 2|150","BR-SP-G|2018|Decisive governor round 2|151","BR-SP-G|2014|Decisive governor round 1|152"],"all_keys":["BR-SP-G|2022|Decisive governor round 2|150","BR-SP-G|2018|Decisive governor round 2|151","BR-SP-G|2014|Decisive governor round 1|152"],"shares":[[0.5527115728592857,0.4472884271407142],[0.5174586105148573,0.48254138948514275],[0.5731071538452671,0.21529732458619286]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":45.24498166701763,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","office_ids":["BR-SP-G"],"scope":"São Paulo governor","pollster":"Paraná Pesquisas","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-07","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-10","publication_date":"2026-09-11","sample":1680,"margin_of_error_pp":2.4,"measure":"Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents","incumbent_candidate":"Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos)","incumbent_share":49.7,"opposition_candidate":"Fernando Haddad (PT)","opposition_share":34.5,"candidate_label_note":"Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status","registration":"","interpretation":"Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) 49.7%, Fernando Haddad (PT) 34.5%. Numerical gap 15.2 percentage points. The reported point estimates show a lead at fieldwork time. Undecided 4.4%. The incumbent leads this poll. Valid-vote normalization is not substituted for all-respondent shares.","local_forecast":"Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag","source_type":"Poll publisher report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/colunas/painel/2026/09/tarcisio-chega-a-56-dos-votos-validos-e-venceria-em-primeiro-turno-diz-pesquisa-parana.shtml","source_sha256":"546dc3f76974270ca5d49446d5a742cd9704ee59bb87ed56c05eb3e48cd4176c","retrieved":"2026-09-12T12:13:29Z"},{"country":"Brazil","office_ids":["BR-SP-G"],"scope":"São Paulo governor","pollster":"Quaest","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-04","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-07","publication_date":"2026-09-08","sample":1800,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"measure":"Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents","incumbent_candidate":"Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos)","incumbent_share":42,"opposition_candidate":"Fernando Haddad (PT)","opposition_share":27,"candidate_label_note":"Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status","registration":"SP-00959/2026","interpretation":"Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) 42%, Fernando Haddad (PT) 27%. Numerical gap 15 percentage points. The reported point estimates show a lead at fieldwork time. Undecided 14%. The incumbent leads this poll; it is retained alongside the later Paraná study without averaging unlike surveys.","local_forecast":"Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag","source_type":"Poll publisher report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/quaest-tarcisio-tem-42-no-1o-turno-para-governo-de-sp-contra-27-de-haddad.shtml","source_sha256":"4fc1ccfceb5ec48c3402000eb2d1c84e3176b91df0b77cfe7a568de428a3598c","retrieved":"2026-09-12T12:13:29Z"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos); verified in Datafolha reporting 11 Sep 2026","current_government_source":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-gestao-tarcisio-em-sp-tem-46-de-avaliacao-positiva-e-21-de-negativa.shtml","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-SP-A","country":"Brazil","region":"SP","name":"São Paulo","office":"State legislative assembly","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2022,2018,2014],"gaps":[1.8885609184510628,9.696364702457204,9.831770464469832],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-SP-A|2022|Legislative first round|153","BR-SP-A|2018|Legislative first round|154","BR-SP-A|2014|Legislative first round|155"],"all_keys":["BR-SP-A|2022|Legislative first round|153","BR-SP-A|2018|Legislative first round|154","BR-SP-A|2014|Legislative first round|155"],"shares":[[0.18462063895598343,0.1657350297714728],[0.1930370008537511,0.09607335382917909],[0.2459967023588039,0.14767899771410556]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":74.8738849587261,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PT","PSDB","MDB","PP","PSB","PDT","PSD","PSOL","PL","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[16.57350297714728,8.898723003002516,4.34413111519932,3.5598633853626014,3.9311387105587063,1.7122355414460408,4.190902701026098,6.048655790172489,18.46206389559834,32.2787828804866],[9.30463090093787,9.607335382917908,2.8681395931774913,4.08713392776689,6.0848866387971885,1.447247958188206,2.6825327640124548,4.347978084928264,5.739247629597364,53.83086711967637],null],"volatility_latest":24.941715089747927,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-TO-G","country":"Brazil","region":"TO","name":"Tocantins","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":1,"years":[2022,2018,2018],"gaps":[35.65220332513103,26.197675095026558,50.28840213594964],"score_gate":true,"event_review":"Three imported actual events with complete vote vectors","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"Last three governor election cycles are 2022, October 2018 and the 2018-06-03 special election completed 2018-06-24. The annulled 2014 return is retained only as archival evidence. Special first round and runoff are one event. Secondary full special return is available; primary certification remains pending.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elei%C3%A7%C3%A3o_suplementar_para_governador_do_Tocantins_em_2018","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-TO-G|2022|Decisive governor round 1|156","BR-TO-G|2018|Decisive governor round 1|157","BR-TO-G|BR-TO-G-SPECIAL-2018-06-03|Decisive runoff; first round preserved within this event|163"],"all_keys":["BR-TO-G|2022|Decisive governor round 1|156","BR-TO-G|2018|Decisive governor round 1|157","BR-TO-G|BR-TO-G-SPECIAL-2018-06-03|Decisive runoff; first round preserved within this event|163","BR-TO-G|2014|Decisive governor round 1|158"],"shares":[[0.5816454602889286,0.22512342703761823],[0.573896535627686,0.3119197846774205],[0.7514420106797481,0.24855798932025178]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elei%C3%A7%C3%A3o_suplementar_para_governador_do_Tocantins_em_2018"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Actual-event review cleared","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Wanderlei Barbosa (Republicanos (partido político)); Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending; retrieved 12 Sep 2026","current_government_source":"https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lista_de_governadores_das_unidades_federativas_do_Brasil","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Secondary current-directory snapshot; primary incumbent/party verification pending","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":2,"Complete published candidate vector; primary final certification pending":1,"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status; annulled result superseded by special election, archival only":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-TO-A","country":"Brazil","region":"TO","name":"Tocantins","office":"State legislative assembly","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-10-04","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2022,2018,2014],"gaps":[10.742756597959275,2.7866248436323904,2.4756014563138873],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"First round 4 October 2026; governor runoff 25 October where required. TSE ordinary-election returns aggregated once from state files, excluding the duplicate national BR file. Party votes are not governing coalition control. Legislative votes include nominal plus valid list votes. Judicial retotalizations and changed party labels require review. The 2014 file uses legacy nominal/list fields; later files separately identify valid, converted and subjudice votes. This is an explicit definition-comparability limitation.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"selected_keys":["BR-TO-A|2022|Legislative first round|159","BR-TO-A|2018|Legislative first round|160","BR-TO-A|2014|Legislative first round|161"],"all_keys":["BR-TO-A|2022|Legislative first round|159","BR-TO-A|2018|Legislative first round|160","BR-TO-A|2014|Legislative first round|161"],"shares":[[0.2464680436911416,0.13904047771154882],[0.13111440885676862,0.10324816042044471],[0.1357873940306989,0.11103137946756002]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip"],"comparison_ci":62.35399221251665,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Nine continuing national parties, allowing PMDB/MDB and PR/PL labels; merged, new and remaining parties all grouped in Other. Lower bound; changes inside Other are invisible. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PT","PSDB","MDB","PP","PSB","PDT","PSD","PSOL","PL","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.960260622237991,3.145949172430904,2.6062223799038966,0,4.907762213371273,3.5912267727502094,13.254649645036443,0.09564778601744434,13.90404777115488,53.53423363709696],[7.594711225520266,8.488316962169083,13.111440885676862,2.7562218906618736,5.178547033502179,2.191155553293564,1.186920569271856,0.16875647904339183,5.873930874131775,53.449998526729146],null],"volatility_latest":21.582152302612148,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full party vote vector; governor names / assembly seats joined by party number to TSE candidacy status":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-M-MA-c3e30ecf3f","country":"Brazil","region":"MA","name":"Nova Olinda do Maranhão","office":"Mayor and vice mayor joint ticket","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-12-06","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2024,2020,2016],"gaps":[null,20.246085011185677,97.06945002007225],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"TSE calendar resolution 10547. Mayor/vice ticket counted once; council not called. Earlier ordinary returns and all intervening supplementary or annulled outcomes require individual verification. Primary 2012/2016/2020 and available 2024 event data retained. Selected sequence includes unresolved recent evidence instead of substituting an older usable election. Primary 2012/2016/2020 and available 2024 event data retained. Selected sequence includes unresolved recent evidence instead of substituting an older usable election.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2024.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2020.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2016.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2012.zip","https://www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/eleicoes-suplementares/calendarios/calendario-das-eleicoes-suplementares-2026"],"selected_keys":["BR-M-MA-c3e30ecf3f|619|1|193","BR-M-MA-c3e30ecf3f|426|1|185","BR-M-MA-c3e30ecf3f|220|1|177"],"all_keys":["BR-M-MA-c3e30ecf3f|619|1|193","BR-M-MA-c3e30ecf3f|426|1|185","BR-M-MA-c3e30ecf3f|220|1|177","BR-M-MA-c3e30ecf3f|47|1|169"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.5791132804555623,0.37665243034370555],[0.9853472501003613,0.0146527498996387]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2024.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2020.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2016.zip"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Called supplementary election; TSE calendar checked 2026-09-13","source_quality_counts":{"2024-era return retained as evidence; new 2026 supplementary call requires the judgment and validity sequence to be reconciled before scoring":1,"Primary numeric return; final legal validity, intervening events and geography still under review":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"BR-M-PR-9c21214df7","country":"Brazil","region":"PR","name":"Santana do Itararé","office":"Mayor and vice mayor joint ticket","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-10-25","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2024,2020,2016],"gaps":[null,null,9.622786759045425],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"54 state ballots plus eight specifically called municipal mayor/vice tickets. Municipal dates are 25 October or 6 December 2026. State and local actual-event sequences, annulments, source comparability and current control retain office-specific review gaps. Roraima 2010 is recovered from official section files; the June 2026 supplementary proclamation remains unresolved. Rio’s 2022 votes and seats are verified against the signed March 2026 recount, with 70 named elected deputies.","local_note":"TSE calendar resolution 987. Mayor/vice ticket counted once; council not called. Earlier ordinary returns and all intervening supplementary or annulled outcomes require individual verification. Primary 2012/2016/2020 and available 2024 event data retained. Selected sequence includes unresolved recent evidence instead of substituting an older usable election. Primary 2012/2016/2020 and available 2024 event data retained. 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","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. 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Selected sequence includes unresolved recent evidence instead of substituting an older usable election.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2024.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2020.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2016.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2012.zip","https://www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/eleicoes-suplementares/calendarios/calendario-das-eleicoes-suplementares-2026"],"selected_keys":["BR-M-SE-d913e5c29d|619|1|196","BR-M-SE-d913e5c29d|426|1|188","BR-M-SE-d913e5c29d|220|1|180"],"all_keys":["BR-M-SE-d913e5c29d|619|1|196","BR-M-SE-d913e5c29d|426|1|188","BR-M-SE-d913e5c29d|220|1|180","BR-M-SE-d913e5c29d|47|1|172"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.6748845265588915,0.28966512702078523],[0.4329208633093525,0.29812949640287767]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2024.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2020.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2016.zip"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. 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","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. 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Selected sequence includes unresolved recent evidence instead of substituting an older usable election.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2024.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2020.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2016.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2012.zip","https://www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/eleicoes-suplementares/calendarios/calendario-das-eleicoes-suplementares-2026"],"selected_keys":["BR-M-SP-2fdbf7a6ed|619|1|199","BR-M-SP-2fdbf7a6ed|426|1|189","BR-M-SP-2fdbf7a6ed|220|1|183"],"all_keys":["BR-M-SP-2fdbf7a6ed|619|1|199","BR-M-SP-2fdbf7a6ed|426|1|189","BR-M-SP-2fdbf7a6ed|220|1|183","BR-M-SP-2fdbf7a6ed|47|1|173"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.5025346400811085,0.4974653599188915],[0.6565842862412394,0.34341571375876057]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2024.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2020.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2016.zip"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. 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","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. 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This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. 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","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. 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Selected sequence includes unresolved recent evidence instead of substituting an older usable election.","sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2024.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2020.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2016.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2012.zip","https://www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/eleicoes-suplementares/calendarios/calendario-das-eleicoes-suplementares-2026"],"selected_keys":["BR-M-RJ-3e85f31655|619|1|195","BR-M-RJ-3e85f31655|426|1|187","BR-M-RJ-3e85f31655|220|1|179"],"all_keys":["BR-M-RJ-3e85f31655|619|1|195","BR-M-RJ-3e85f31655|426|1|187","BR-M-RJ-3e85f31655|220|1|179","BR-M-RJ-3e85f31655|47|1|171"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.18229308986867696,0.16570491697876652],[0.40184561342892516,0.37904177823846136]],"cycle_sources":["https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2024.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2020.zip","https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2016.zip"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential poll; context for subnational races","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-01","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-02","publication_date":"2026-09-03","sample":2002,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"tse_registration":"BR-03669/2026","measure":"Hypothetical presidential runoff","incumbent_candidate":"Lula (PT)","incumbent_share":46,"opposition_candidate":"Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)","opposition_share":44,"interpretation":"Competitive national contest within the reported margin of error. 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","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. 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This does not establish which state or municipal incumbents will lose.","local_forecast":"No national-to-local transfer model calibrated; local government risk unassessed","source_type":"Poll commissioning publisher's report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-lula-tem-38-e-flavio-bolsonaro-33-no-1o-turno-cury-vai-a-8.shtml"},{"country":"Brazil","office_ids":["BR-RJ-G"],"scope":"Rio de Janeiro governor","pollster":"Datafolha","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-08","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-11","publication_date":"2026-09-11","sample":1204,"margin_of_error_pp":3,"measure":"Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents","incumbent_candidate":"Eduardo Paes (PSD)","incumbent_share":43,"opposition_candidate":"Douglas Ruas (PL)","opposition_share":25,"candidate_label_note":"Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status","registration":"RJ-09217/2026","interpretation":"Eduardo Paes (PSD) 43%, Douglas Ruas (PL) 25%. Numerical gap 18 percentage points. The reported point estimates show a lead at fieldwork time. Undecided 3%. Neither leading candidate is the interim governor. Later candidate eligibility decisions can change the ballot.","local_forecast":"Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag","source_type":"Poll publisher report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/datafolha-eduardo-paes-lidera-com-49-dos-votos-validos-no-rio.shtml","source_sha256":"4842d4010f586661798c06bf54c0605523d5438c2b5a3d3c9a1deddf238d7bca","retrieved":"2026-09-12T12:13:29Z"},{"country":"Brazil","office_ids":["BR-SP-G"],"scope":"São Paulo governor","pollster":"Paraná Pesquisas","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-07","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-10","publication_date":"2026-09-11","sample":1680,"margin_of_error_pp":2.4,"measure":"Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents","incumbent_candidate":"Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos)","incumbent_share":49.7,"opposition_candidate":"Fernando Haddad (PT)","opposition_share":34.5,"candidate_label_note":"Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status","registration":"","interpretation":"Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) 49.7%, Fernando Haddad (PT) 34.5%. Numerical gap 15.2 percentage points. The reported point estimates show a lead at fieldwork time. Undecided 4.4%. The incumbent leads this poll. Valid-vote normalization is not substituted for all-respondent shares.","local_forecast":"Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag","source_type":"Poll publisher report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/colunas/painel/2026/09/tarcisio-chega-a-56-dos-votos-validos-e-venceria-em-primeiro-turno-diz-pesquisa-parana.shtml","source_sha256":"546dc3f76974270ca5d49446d5a742cd9704ee59bb87ed56c05eb3e48cd4176c","retrieved":"2026-09-12T12:13:29Z"},{"country":"Brazil","office_ids":["BR-SP-G"],"scope":"São Paulo governor","pollster":"Quaest","fieldwork_start":"2026-09-04","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-07","publication_date":"2026-09-08","sample":1800,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"measure":"Prompted local/state election preference; all respondents","incumbent_candidate":"Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos)","incumbent_share":42,"opposition_candidate":"Fernando Haddad (PT)","opposition_share":27,"candidate_label_note":"Candidate A/B labels do not imply incumbent/opposition status","registration":"SP-00959/2026","interpretation":"Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) 42%, Fernando Haddad (PT) 27%. Numerical gap 15 percentage points. The reported point estimates show a lead at fieldwork time. Undecided 14%. The incumbent leads this poll; it is retained alongside the later Paraná study without averaging unlike surveys.","local_forecast":"Poll snapshot; no calibrated win probability or automatic incumbent-defeat flag","source_type":"Poll publisher report","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/09/quaest-tarcisio-tem-42-no-1o-turno-para-governo-de-sp-contra-27-de-haddad.shtml","source_sha256":"4fc1ccfceb5ec48c3402000eb2d1c84e3176b91df0b77cfe7a568de428a3598c","retrieved":"2026-09-12T12:13:29Z"},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-22","fieldwork_end":"2026-07-27","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":5021,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":48,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51,"approve_pct":48,"disapprove_pct":51,"unsure_pct":1,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. ","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/5d2efbe7-4230-40ee-896a-0a9ea48362b7.pdf","source_sha256":"e956a46a71eceeee9bd65e1cf47e75d65403c6ac8dfd470926778d8782f57506","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Brazil","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-25","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-30","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":5014,"margin_of_error_pp":1,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Lula","incumbent_share":45,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":53,"approve_pct":45,"disapprove_pct":53,"unsure_pct":2,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Rounded approval fell from 48% to 45%, and disapproval rose from 51% to 53%. This supplies a national headwind indicator for Lula-aligned candidates, but Brazilian state coalitions differ and individual state polling takes precedence. Overview values are rounded to whole percentage points.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/overview_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_dc47d6da10061135.pdf","source_sha256":"03b02c3010f592580c1f1bbc5ad0e1a4c9a6292538157915fc39b02b8c9d54c2","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"Whole percentage-point rounding in overview chart","within_person_comparable":true,"approval_change_pp":-3},{"country":"Brazil","office_ids":["BR-RR-G"],"scope":"Roraima governor","pollster":"Quaest","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-23","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-26","publication_date":"2026-08-27","sample":804,"margin_of_error_pp":3,"confidence_level":95,"measure":"Prompted governor preference; all respondents","incumbent_candidate":"Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos; acting governor)","incumbent_share":27,"opposition_candidate":"Arthur Henrique (PL)","opposition_share":60,"registration":"RR-04765/2026; BR-08926/2026","interpretation":"Arthur Henrique leads acting governor Soldado Sampaio by 33 points in this snapshot. Rosi Aires 1%; Farah Mesquita and Clebio Genuino 0%; undecided 9%; blank/null/abstention 3%. Published rounded categories sum to 100%. The June supplementary result remains judicially unresolved in recovered evidence.","local_forecast":"Poll suggests substantial electoral pressure on the acting administration; no calibrated win probability or resolved certification is inferred.","source_type":"Secondary report of Quaest poll commissioned by Rede Amazonica","url":"https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/08/quaest-mostra-arthur-henrique-com-60-contra-27-de-soldado-sampaio-pelo-governo-de-roraima.shtml","source_sha256":"f7e703f44d9aaefc0bbfe363221fe8ae089c35256970aa2951301244238ddca1","retrieved":"2026-09-13T22:48:21Z"}]}