{"country":"Ecuador","coverage":{"country":"Ecuador","status":"Results imported; completion checks remain","units":1295,"historical_units":2,"histories":3857,"party_rows":23362,"three_votes":1278,"three_seats":1279,"score_ready":0,"note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","date":"2026-11-29","denominator_status":"Ordinary cohort reconciled to CNE; three March 2027 first contests tracked separately","file":"Ecuador_Returns.xlsx","comparison_ci_available":244,"grouped_volatility_available":152},"offices":[{"id":"EC-P-1","country":"Ecuador","region":"AZUAY","name":"AZUAY","office":"Prefect","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[0.6939098395034833,9.58768143205085,18.030841626009632],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-P-1|EC-P-1-2023||3318","EC-P-1|EC-P-1-2019||1280","EC-P-1|EC-P-1-2014||0"],"all_keys":["EC-P-1|EC-P-1-2023||3318","EC-P-1|EC-P-1-2019||1280","EC-P-1|EC-P-1-2014||0"],"shares":[[0.20295668239953701,0.1960175840045022],[0.2900016831349874,0.19412486881447893],[0.5707712443597918,0.39046282809969546]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":74.52132752040845,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[2.5979683570622365,0,29.000168313498744,0,0,0,68.40186332943902],[0,0,0,3.876592754051274,0,39.04628280996955,57.07712443597918]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":42.92287556402082,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Juan Cristóbal Lloret; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor","current_government_source":"https://www.congope.gob.ec/asamblea-de-prefectos/","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary prefect association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-P-2","country":"Ecuador","region":"BOLÍVAR","name":"BOLÍVAR","office":"Prefect","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[20.176502004933916,24.81549337158857,40.42035376692659],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-P-2|EC-P-2-2023||2571","EC-P-2|EC-P-2-2019||1281","EC-P-2|EC-P-2-2014||1"],"all_keys":["EC-P-2|EC-P-2-2023||2571","EC-P-2|EC-P-2-2019||1281","EC-P-2|EC-P-2-2014||1"],"shares":[[0.4221212455175103,0.22035622546817116],[0.5444889987382685,0.29633406502238274],[0.6612053775688015,0.2570018398995357]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,42.21212455175103,0,0,0,57.78787544824896],[0,0,0,0,0,29.633406502238277,70.36659349776173],[0,0,0,8.179278253166283,66.12053775688015,0,25.700183989953565]],"volatility_latest":42.21212455175104,"volatility_previous":74.29981601004644,"volatility_mean":58.25597028089874,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Aníbal Coronel Monar; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor","current_government_source":"https://www.congope.gob.ec/asamblea-de-prefectos/","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary prefect association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-P-3","country":"Ecuador","region":"CAÑAR","name":"CAÑAR","office":"Prefect","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[6.199516513617649,1.0586280932156917,28.925333948306754],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-P-3|EC-P-3-2023||2572","EC-P-3|EC-P-3-2019||1282","EC-P-3|EC-P-3-2014||2"],"all_keys":["EC-P-3|EC-P-3-2023||2572","EC-P-3|EC-P-3-2019||1282","EC-P-3|EC-P-3-2014||2"],"shares":[[0.3410889169409998,0.2790937518048233],[0.3074331207196477,0.29684683978749077],[0.5760763513153927,0.28682301183232517]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":65.35084134517014,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,27.909375180482332,0,0,0,72.09062481951767],[30.74331207196477,0,15.784607187073924,29.684683978749078,0,0,23.787396762212225],[0,0,0,28.682301183232514,0,57.60763513153927,13.71006368522822]],"volatility_latest":60.42799605071385,"volatility_previous":57.60763513153927,"volatility_mean":59.01781559112656,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Marcelo Jaramillo Calle; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor","current_government_source":"https://www.congope.gob.ec/asamblea-de-prefectos/","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary prefect association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-P-4","country":"Ecuador","region":"CARCHI","name":"CARCHI","office":"Prefect","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[33.834960856455226,25.859802024831417,43.82984711570356],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-P-4|EC-P-4-2023||3319","EC-P-4|EC-P-4-2019||1283","EC-P-4|EC-P-4-2014||3"],"all_keys":["EC-P-4|EC-P-4-2023||3319","EC-P-4|EC-P-4-2019||1283","EC-P-4|EC-P-4-2014||3"],"shares":[[0.6094036718397005,0.27105406327514825],[0.6134506658652491,0.35485264561693497],[0.7191492355785178,0.2808507644214822]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Julio Robles Guevara; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor","current_government_source":"https://www.congope.gob.ec/asamblea-de-prefectos/","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary prefect association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-P-5","country":"Ecuador","region":"COTOPAXI","name":"COTOPAXI","office":"Prefect","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[0.8776106198007838,9.488159908265583,2.3971320734774046],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-P-5|EC-P-5-2023||2573","EC-P-5|EC-P-5-2019||1284","EC-P-5|EC-P-5-2014||4"],"all_keys":["EC-P-5|EC-P-5-2023||2573","EC-P-5|EC-P-5-2019||1284","EC-P-5|EC-P-5-2014||4"],"shares":[[0.1904763689938406,0.18170026279583276],[0.31903695362544804,0.22415535454279223],[0.3042371500420588,0.2802658293072848]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":81.93636224146057,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,19.04763689938406,17.52409586612033,0,0,63.42826723449561],[0,0,0,11.62148004240242,22.415535454279222,0,65.96298450331835],[0,15.730876452790636,0,10.110850292650058,10.361441538251498,28.026582930728477,35.77024878557933]],"volatility_latest":24.95025272310197,"volatility_previous":43.75745938351911,"volatility_mean":34.35385605331054,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Lourdes Tibán Guala; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor","current_government_source":"https://www.congope.gob.ec/asamblea-de-prefectos/","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary prefect association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-P-6","country":"Ecuador","region":"CHIMBORAZO","name":"CHIMBORAZO","office":"Prefect","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[4.15931832454039,5.219274248857587,22.701641404225242],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-P-6|EC-P-6-2023||2574","EC-P-6|EC-P-6-2019||1285","EC-P-6|EC-P-6-2014||5"],"all_keys":["EC-P-6|EC-P-6-2023||2574","EC-P-6|EC-P-6-2019||1285","EC-P-6|EC-P-6-2014||5"],"shares":[[0.2978118548656992,0.2562186716202953],[0.25051052254390493,0.19831778005532907],[0.42462891698735566,0.19761250294510327]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":68.34231295097983,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,9.434331203724247,0,0,0,90.56566879627574],null,[0.9443964501688525,0,0,0,9.82290112306605,0,89.2327024267651]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Mónica Loza; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor","current_government_source":"https://www.congope.gob.ec/asamblea-de-prefectos/","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary prefect association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-P-7","country":"Ecuador","region":"EL ORO","name":"EL ORO","office":"Prefect","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[44.60108250400952,3.845686512758199,9.344588984223634],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-P-7|EC-P-7-2023||2575","EC-P-7|EC-P-7-2019||1286","EC-P-7|EC-P-7-2014||6"],"all_keys":["EC-P-7|EC-P-7-2023||2575","EC-P-7|EC-P-7-2019||1286","EC-P-7|EC-P-7-2014||6"],"shares":[[0.5968333259922738,0.1508225009521786],[0.27726768450525646,0.23881081937767448],[0.5092665375034597,0.41582064766122334]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,2.6059897864269854,0,0,0,97.39401021357301],[21.612869142585453,0,0,0,0,0,78.38713085741456],[0,0,0,2.7553279822861887,0,0,97.24467201771381]],"volatility_latest":21.612869142585446,"volatility_previous":21.612869142585446,"volatility_mean":21.612869142585446,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Karina Torres; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor","current_government_source":"https://www.congope.gob.ec/asamblea-de-prefectos/","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary prefect association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-P-8","country":"Ecuador","region":"ESMERALDAS","name":"ESMERALDAS","office":"Prefect","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[26.18745992273886,11.559841692120738,1.0633483168778],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-P-8|EC-P-8-2023||2576","EC-P-8|EC-P-8-2019||1287","EC-P-8|EC-P-8-2014||7"],"all_keys":["EC-P-8|EC-P-8-2023||2576","EC-P-8|EC-P-8-2019||1287","EC-P-8|EC-P-8-2014||7"],"shares":[[0.5111903533054943,0.2493157540781057],[0.33556261700660167,0.21996420008539427],[0.3994235070282051,0.3887900238594271]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":3.5661835351634252,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[51.11903533054943,0,2.5790206290370508,0,0,0,46.301944040413524],[33.556261700660166,0,0,2.0860019049495846,0,14.811804118632377,49.54593227575787],[0,18.46227530175804,0,1.8630565551908533,0,38.87900238594271,40.795665757108395]],"volatility_latest":20.14179425892631,"volatility_previous":42.52947356906837,"volatility_mean":31.33563391399734,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Diego Zambrano; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor","current_government_source":"https://www.congope.gob.ec/asamblea-de-prefectos/","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary prefect association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-P-9","country":"Ecuador","region":"GUAYAS","name":"GUAYAS","office":"Prefect","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[8.603209290213023,30.44636952784023,15.833275317924446],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-P-9|EC-P-9-2023||2577","EC-P-9|EC-P-9-2019||1288","EC-P-9|EC-P-9-2014||8"],"all_keys":["EC-P-9|EC-P-9-2023||2577","EC-P-9|EC-P-9-2019||1288","EC-P-9|EC-P-9-2014||8"],"shares":[[0.34266590551103787,0.25663381260890766],[0.47867396457530037,0.17421026929689806],[0.5298363578699836,0.3715036046907392]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":20.604180178638366,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0.6978039163981816,1.7279822409487702,6.090881421023324,0,0,91.48333242162973],[0,0,0.5832561830445708,13.27332566917278,0.8943159736705564,0,85.24910217411207],[0,0,0.38522231504687643,5.793128654970761,0,0,93.82164902998237]],"volatility_latest":8.076760221820026,"volatility_previous":8.572546855870284,"volatility_mean":8.324653538845155,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Carlos Encalada; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor","current_government_source":"https://www.congope.gob.ec/asamblea-de-prefectos/","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary prefect association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-P-10","country":"Ecuador","region":"IMBABURA","name":"IMBABURA","office":"Prefect","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[9.142398448355248,22.52807480157245,6.421313669980471],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-P-10|EC-P-10-2023||2578","EC-P-10|EC-P-10-2019||1289","EC-P-10|EC-P-10-2014||9"],"all_keys":["EC-P-10|EC-P-10-2023||2578","EC-P-10|EC-P-10-2019||1289","EC-P-10|EC-P-10-2014||9"],"shares":[[0.34326880370960444,0.25184481922605195],[0.43749147080704875,0.21221072279132422],[0.4972107007264029,0.43299756402659817]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":35.57003561758535,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.9578920775659387,0,10.113398827302102,2.1237322597864043,0,0,85.80497683534556],[0,0,0,5.30372731234675,0,0,94.69627268765323],[0,0,0,6.979173524699893,0,43.29975640265982,49.72107007264029]],"volatility_latest":12.071290904868032,"volatility_previous":44.975202615012954,"volatility_mean":28.52324675994049,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Richard Calderón Saltos; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor","current_government_source":"https://www.congope.gob.ec/asamblea-de-prefectos/","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary prefect association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-P-11","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOJA","name":"LOJA","office":"Prefect","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[10.837161338708164,14.849097113213741,7.633445979328471],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-P-11|EC-P-11-2023||3236","EC-P-11|EC-P-11-2019||1290","EC-P-11|EC-P-11-2014||10"],"all_keys":["EC-P-11|EC-P-11-2023||3236","EC-P-11|EC-P-11-2019||1290","EC-P-11|EC-P-11-2014||10"],"shares":[[0.2526671041529952,0.14429549076591358],[0.3407522804464812,0.1922613093143438],[0.40292484338254186,0.3265903835892571]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":41.39814732439066,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,4.1874941408080995,0,0,0,0,95.81250585919192],[0,0,0,0,0,19.22613093143438,80.77386906856563],null],"volatility_latest":19.226130931434383,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Mario José Mancino; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor","current_government_source":"https://www.congope.gob.ec/asamblea-de-prefectos/","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary prefect association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-P-12","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOS RÍOS","name":"LOS RÍOS","office":"Prefect","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[5.585097853069655,2.0360550467060214,43.77187781930661],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-P-12|EC-P-12-2023||3144","EC-P-12|EC-P-12-2019||1291","EC-P-12|EC-P-12-2014||11"],"all_keys":["EC-P-12|EC-P-12-2023||3144","EC-P-12|EC-P-12-2019||1291","EC-P-12|EC-P-12-2014||11"],"shares":[[0.37701815942577466,0.3211671808950781],[0.26341376895300295,0.24305321848594272],[0.6119706147699445,0.17425183657687845]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":58.3046849610787,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[37.70181594257747,3.0139557956000864,0,0,0,0,59.28422826182244],[26.341376895300293,0,0,0,0,17.013134078567987,56.64548902613172],[0,14.537698156978992,0,0,0,61.197061476994456,24.26524036602655]],"volatility_latest":17.013134078567987,"volatility_previous":58.72162555540546,"volatility_mean":37.86737981698673,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Johnny Terán Salcedo; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor","current_government_source":"https://www.congope.gob.ec/asamblea-de-prefectos/","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary prefect association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-P-13","country":"Ecuador","region":"MANABÍ","name":"MANABÍ","office":"Prefect","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[10.159515738377685,2.7602098944844506,37.7662763952014],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-P-13|EC-P-13-2023||3522","EC-P-13|EC-P-13-2019||1292","EC-P-13|EC-P-13-2014||12"],"all_keys":["EC-P-13|EC-P-13-2023||3522","EC-P-13|EC-P-13-2019||1292","EC-P-13|EC-P-13-2014||12"],"shares":[[0.42910946528403854,0.3275143079002617],[0.28508276976285385,0.25748067081800935],[0.5590237868414422,0.18136102288942818]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":46.497999745539566,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0.871403094292851,0,3.101599647108809,0,96.02699725859836],[0,18.13610228894282,1.1879272313722742,0,14.463040991304792,0,66.21292948838011]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":29.814067770218234,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Leonardo Orlando Arteaga; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor","current_government_source":"https://www.congope.gob.ec/asamblea-de-prefectos/","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary prefect association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-P-14","country":"Ecuador","region":"MORONA SANTIAGO","name":"MORONA SANTIAGO","office":"Prefect","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[9.942782889359293,11.088264077499094,21.99929734748676],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-P-14|EC-P-14-2023||2579","EC-P-14|EC-P-14-2019||1293","EC-P-14|EC-P-14-2014||13"],"all_keys":["EC-P-14|EC-P-14-2023||2579","EC-P-14|EC-P-14-2019||1293","EC-P-14|EC-P-14-2014||13"],"shares":[[0.4660784272630101,0.36665059836941716],[0.36560263021892836,0.2547199894439374],[0.4822956661396773,0.26230269266480966]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":42.5396065419301,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,46.60784272630101,0,0,0,53.392157273698984],[0,0,36.56026302189284,0,0,0,63.43973697810716],[0,0,48.22956661396773,0,0,25.540164119551306,26.230269266480967]],"volatility_latest":10.047579704408175,"volatility_previous":37.209467711626196,"volatility_mean":23.628523708017184,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Tiyua Uyunkar Kaniras; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor","current_government_source":"https://www.congope.gob.ec/asamblea-de-prefectos/","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary prefect association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-P-15","country":"Ecuador","region":"NAPO","name":"NAPO","office":"Prefect","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[16.340910886916205,7.569980067596845,1.7371921879422558],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-P-15|EC-P-15-2023||2580","EC-P-15|EC-P-15-2019||1294","EC-P-15|EC-P-15-2014||14"],"all_keys":["EC-P-15|EC-P-15-2023||2580","EC-P-15|EC-P-15-2019||1294","EC-P-15|EC-P-15-2014||14"],"shares":[[0.4536917524958512,0.29028264362668915],[0.3354854551232054,0.25978565444723695],[0.4595952448344183,0.4422233229549958]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":38.75370114388499,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,45.36917524958512,0,0,0,54.63082475041488],[0,0,33.54854551232054,0,0,0,66.45145448767947],[0,7.376875176903481,0,0,0,45.95952448344183,46.663600339654685]],"volatility_latest":11.820629737264586,"volatility_previous":53.336399660345315,"volatility_mean":32.57851469880495,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"José Toapanta Bastidas; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor","current_government_source":"https://www.congope.gob.ec/asamblea-de-prefectos/","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary prefect association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-P-16","country":"Ecuador","region":"PASTAZA","name":"PASTAZA","office":"Prefect","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[10.216849493904814,5.1902673388050715,9.621715905374472],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-P-16|EC-P-16-2023||2581","EC-P-16|EC-P-16-2019||1295","EC-P-16|EC-P-16-2014||15"],"all_keys":["EC-P-16|EC-P-16-2023||2581","EC-P-16|EC-P-16-2019||1295","EC-P-16|EC-P-16-2014||15"],"shares":[[0.2954510774656245,0.19328258252657637],[0.3985149866239604,0.3466123132359097],[0.374228714706203,0.2780115556524583]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":56.75319255739072,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,19.328258252657637,0,0,0,80.67174174734237],[0,0,0,0,15.81284463775501,0,84.187155362245],[0,0,17.93088411642865,0,37.4228714706203,0,44.64624441295105]],"volatility_latest":19.328258252657637,"volatility_previous":39.540910949293945,"volatility_mean":29.43458460097579,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"André Granda Garrido; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor","current_government_source":"https://www.congope.gob.ec/asamblea-de-prefectos/","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary prefect association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-P-17","country":"Ecuador","region":"PICHINCHA","name":"PICHINCHA","office":"Prefect","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[2.3923152719940504,1.4056932033143568,32.64683379646354],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-P-17|EC-P-17-2023||3145","EC-P-17|EC-P-17-2019||1296","EC-P-17|EC-P-17-2014||16"],"all_keys":["EC-P-17|EC-P-17-2023||3145","EC-P-17|EC-P-17-2019||1296","EC-P-17|EC-P-17-2014||16"],"shares":[[0.2795654753754165,0.255642322655476],[0.2212976143979864,0.20724068236484283],[0.6098085621626967,0.2833402241980613]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":74.39109748081454,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.0237452779276848,1.727399161773432,0,0,0,0,96.24885556029889],[4.328985850583471,0,2.403956629039705,0,0,3.085425083645113,90.18163243673172],[0,0,4.731070840378727,28.334022419806132,0,60.98085621626967,5.954050523545467]],"volatility_latest":7.794622285340605,"volatility_previous":88.55656776376972,"volatility_mean":48.175595024555165,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Paola Pabón Caranqui; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor","current_government_source":"https://www.congope.gob.ec/asamblea-de-prefectos/","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary prefect association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-P-18","country":"Ecuador","region":"TUNGURAHUA","name":"TUNGURAHUA","office":"Prefect","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[17.022865349907217,7.567116198322012,25.600719487893908],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-P-18|EC-P-18-2023||2582","EC-P-18|EC-P-18-2019||1297","EC-P-18|EC-P-18-2014||17"],"all_keys":["EC-P-18|EC-P-18-2023||2582","EC-P-18|EC-P-18-2019||1297","EC-P-18|EC-P-18-2014||17"],"shares":[[0.3860037113297237,0.21577505783065154],[0.2161646566462694,0.14049349466304928],[0.5202250163119192,0.26421782143298006]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":24.78036990884839,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,38.60037113297237,0,0,0,61.39962886702763],[0,0,21.61646566462694,0,0,0,78.38353433537306],[0,0,0,0,0,52.022501631191915,47.977498368808085]],"volatility_latest":16.983905468345426,"volatility_previous":52.022501631191915,"volatility_mean":34.50320354976867,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Manuel Caizabanda Jerez; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor","current_government_source":"https://www.congope.gob.ec/asamblea-de-prefectos/","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary prefect association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-P-19","country":"Ecuador","region":"ZAMORA CHINCHIPE","name":"ZAMORA CHINCHIPE","office":"Prefect","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[20.067083044182276,2.090308852520579,24.079701636853375],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-P-19|EC-P-19-2023||3360","EC-P-19|EC-P-19-2019||1298","EC-P-19|EC-P-19-2014||18"],"all_keys":["EC-P-19|EC-P-19-2023||3360","EC-P-19|EC-P-19-2019||1298","EC-P-19|EC-P-19-2014||18"],"shares":[[0.5614012260004626,0.36073039555863984],[0.4780955659167006,0.4571924773914948],[0.5034532771600249,0.2626562607914911]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":24.62343677024561,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,5.4317025213971775,0,0,0,0,94.56829747860283],[0,0,45.71924773914948,0,0,0,54.28075226085052],null],"volatility_latest":45.71924773914948,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Karla Reátegui Encarnación; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor","current_government_source":"https://www.congope.gob.ec/asamblea-de-prefectos/","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary prefect association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-P-21","country":"Ecuador","region":"SUCUMBÍOS","name":"SUCUMBÍOS","office":"Prefect","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[3.370597257067878,25.627529191334833,18.863120301580654],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-P-21|EC-P-21-2023||3146","EC-P-21|EC-P-21-2019||1299","EC-P-21|EC-P-21-2014||19"],"all_keys":["EC-P-21|EC-P-21-2023||3146","EC-P-21|EC-P-21-2019||1299","EC-P-21|EC-P-21-2014||19"],"shares":[[0.3284426280374826,0.2947366554668038],[0.48556610424855856,0.2292908123352102],[0.436740812592315,0.24810960957650846]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":42.015354291003796,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.3989485722391155,0,0,0,0,0,98.60105142776088],[2.1885050366521472,0,0,0,48.556610424855855,0,49.254884538492],[0,2.7259099226207537,6.904609686735301,3.296884989307996,24.810960957650845,0,62.261634443685104]],"volatility_latest":49.346166889268886,"volatility_previous":25.934154503857155,"volatility_mean":37.64016069656302,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Yofre Poma Herrera; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor","current_government_source":"https://www.congope.gob.ec/asamblea-de-prefectos/","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary prefect association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-P-22","country":"Ecuador","region":"ORELLANA","name":"ORELLANA","office":"Prefect","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[5.434995313771335,8.354903485659232,16.985158734586847],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-P-22|EC-P-22-2023||3699","EC-P-22|EC-P-22-2019||1300","EC-P-22|EC-P-22-2014||20"],"all_keys":["EC-P-22|EC-P-22-2023||3699","EC-P-22|EC-P-22-2019||1300","EC-P-22|EC-P-22-2014||20"],"shares":[[0.34378379491827427,0.28943384178056086],[0.350573978851578,0.26702494399498566],[0.46271550521676064,0.29286391787089217]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":62.67007946290373,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,0,46.27155052167606,0,0,20.646655135858953,33.08179434246499]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Magali Orellana Marquínez; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor","current_government_source":"https://www.congope.gob.ec/asamblea-de-prefectos/","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary prefect association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-P-23","country":"Ecuador","region":"STO. DGO. DE LOS TSÁCHILAS","name":"STO. DGO. DE LOS TSÁCHILAS","office":"Prefect","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[12.37928960794584,15.210808689941057,42.78127997807319],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-P-23|EC-P-23-2023||2583","EC-P-23|EC-P-23-2019||1301","EC-P-23|EC-P-23-2014||21"],"all_keys":["EC-P-23|EC-P-23-2023||2583","EC-P-23|EC-P-23-2019||1301","EC-P-23|EC-P-23-2014||21"],"shares":[[0.4127994723466993,0.28900657626724086],[0.3901560061071827,0.23804791920777216],[0.5854888995477594,0.15767609976702754]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":18.655278152214304,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[6.495955304661584,0,3.0328425381675688,0,0,0,90.47120215717085],[0,0,0,0,1.6035619546396678,0,98.39643804536033],[0,0,0,9.157873098533644,0,58.54888995477594,32.29323694669042]],"volatility_latest":9.52879784282915,"volatility_previous":67.70676305330957,"volatility_mean":38.61778044806936,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Johana Núñez García; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor","current_government_source":"https://www.congope.gob.ec/asamblea-de-prefectos/","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary prefect association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-P-24","country":"Ecuador","region":"SANTA ELENA","name":"SANTA ELENA","office":"Prefect","tier":"Regional","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[28.646794914719187,4.193310378750617,68.31895027233502],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-P-24|EC-P-24-2023||2584","EC-P-24|EC-P-24-2019||1302","EC-P-24|EC-P-24-2014||22"],"all_keys":["EC-P-24|EC-P-24-2023||2584","EC-P-24|EC-P-24-2019||1302","EC-P-24|EC-P-24-2014||22"],"shares":[[0.5522829237494858,0.2658149746022939],[0.2705976389572061,0.22866453516969995],[0.7896418382023532,0.1064523354790031]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-C-1-260|EC-C-1-260-2023||3700","EC-C-1-260|EC-C-1-260-2019||1303","EC-C-1-260|EC-C-1-260-2014||23"],"all_keys":["EC-C-1-260|EC-C-1-260-2023||3700","EC-C-1-260|EC-C-1-260-2019||1303","EC-C-1-260|EC-C-1-260-2014||23"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-C-1-265|EC-C-1-265-2023||3464","EC-C-1-265|EC-C-1-265-2019||1304","EC-C-1-265|EC-C-1-265-2014||24"],"all_keys":["EC-C-1-265|EC-C-1-265-2023||3464","EC-C-1-265|EC-C-1-265-2019||1304","EC-C-1-265|EC-C-1-265-2014||24"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-C-1-270","country":"Ecuador","region":"AZUAY","name":"GIRÓN / AZUAY","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-C-1-270|EC-C-1-270-2023||3422","EC-C-1-270|EC-C-1-270-2019||1305","EC-C-1-270|EC-C-1-270-2014||25"],"all_keys":["EC-C-1-270|EC-C-1-270-2023||3422","EC-C-1-270|EC-C-1-270-2019||1305","EC-C-1-270|EC-C-1-270-2014||25"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-C-1-275","country":"Ecuador","region":"AZUAY","name":"PAUTE / AZUAY","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-C-1-275|EC-C-1-275-2023||3401","EC-C-1-275|EC-C-1-275-2019||1306","EC-C-1-275|EC-C-1-275-2014||26"],"all_keys":["EC-C-1-275|EC-C-1-275-2023||3401","EC-C-1-275|EC-C-1-275-2019||1306","EC-C-1-275|EC-C-1-275-2014||26"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-C-1-280","country":"Ecuador","region":"AZUAY","name":"SIGSIG / AZUAY","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-C-1-280|EC-C-1-280-2023||3781","EC-C-1-280|EC-C-1-280-2019||1307","EC-C-1-280|EC-C-1-280-2014||27"],"all_keys":["EC-C-1-280|EC-C-1-280-2023||3781","EC-C-1-280|EC-C-1-280-2019||1307","EC-C-1-280|EC-C-1-280-2014||27"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-C-11-311|EC-C-11-311-2023||3524","EC-C-11-311|EC-C-11-311-2019||1387","EC-C-11-311|EC-C-11-311-2014||107"],"all_keys":["EC-C-11-311|EC-C-11-311-2023||3524","EC-C-11-311|EC-C-11-311-2019||1387","EC-C-11-311|EC-C-11-311-2014||107"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-C-11-325|EC-C-11-325-2023||3239","EC-C-11-325|EC-C-11-325-2019||1390","EC-C-11-325|EC-C-11-325-2014||110"],"all_keys":["EC-C-11-325|EC-C-11-325-2023||3239","EC-C-11-325|EC-C-11-325-2019||1390","EC-C-11-325|EC-C-11-325-2014||110"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-C-11-330|EC-C-11-330-2023||3323","EC-C-11-330|EC-C-11-330-2019||1391","EC-C-11-330|EC-C-11-330-2014||111"],"all_keys":["EC-C-11-330|EC-C-11-330-2023||3323","EC-C-11-330|EC-C-11-330-2019||1391","EC-C-11-330|EC-C-11-330-2014||111"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-C-12-520|EC-C-12-520-2023||3466","EC-C-12-520|EC-C-12-520-2019||1399","EC-C-12-520|EC-C-12-520-2014||119"],"all_keys":["EC-C-12-520|EC-C-12-520-2023||3466","EC-C-12-520|EC-C-12-520-2019||1399","EC-C-12-520|EC-C-12-520-2014||119"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-C-13-450|EC-C-13-450-2023||2620","EC-C-13-450|EC-C-13-450-2019||1410","EC-C-13-450|EC-C-13-450-2014||130"],"all_keys":["EC-C-13-450|EC-C-13-450-2023||2620","EC-C-13-450|EC-C-13-450-2019||1410","EC-C-13-450|EC-C-13-450-2014||130"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-C-24-410|EC-C-24-410-2023||3157","EC-C-24-410|EC-C-24-410-2019||1483","EC-C-24-410|EC-C-24-410-2014||203"],"all_keys":["EC-C-24-410|EC-C-24-410-2023||3157","EC-C-24-410|EC-C-24-410-2019||1483","EC-C-24-410|EC-C-24-410-2014||203"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-1-260|EC-M-1-260-2023||3706","EC-M-1-260|EC-M-1-260-2019||1484","EC-M-1-260|EC-M-1-260-2014||204"],"all_keys":["EC-M-1-260|EC-M-1-260-2023||3706","EC-M-1-260|EC-M-1-260-2019||1484","EC-M-1-260|EC-M-1-260-2014||204"],"shares":[[0.18584883195229107,0.17476023012386238],[0.28057781060792597,0.22203597426621463],[0.5238051974953756,0.4296782727831058]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":83.1857977646012,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-1-265|EC-M-1-265-2023||3707","EC-M-1-265|EC-M-1-265-2019||1485","EC-M-1-265|EC-M-1-265-2014||205"],"all_keys":["EC-M-1-265|EC-M-1-265-2023||3707","EC-M-1-265|EC-M-1-265-2019||1485","EC-M-1-265|EC-M-1-265-2014||205"],"shares":[[0.33740302683454154,0.23396498367883337],[0.4047537814170363,0.3130141400356344],[0.3615309820560417,0.357155484840449]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":54.98886598529763,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-1-270|EC-M-1-270-2023||3423","EC-M-1-270|EC-M-1-270-2019||1486","EC-M-1-270|EC-M-1-270-2014||206"],"all_keys":["EC-M-1-270|EC-M-1-270-2023||3423","EC-M-1-270|EC-M-1-270-2019||1486","EC-M-1-270|EC-M-1-270-2014||206"],"shares":[[0.5225977468522199,0.2921139827700464],[0.2809262644728824,0.2664229128580134],[0.4923917284432306,0.25165821303160363]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":16.64269226253623,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-1-275|EC-M-1-275-2023||3708","EC-M-1-275|EC-M-1-275-2019||1487","EC-M-1-275|EC-M-1-275-2014||207"],"all_keys":["EC-M-1-275|EC-M-1-275-2023||3708","EC-M-1-275|EC-M-1-275-2019||1487","EC-M-1-275|EC-M-1-275-2014||207"],"shares":[[0.5006773756531837,0.2228888458809109],[0.4197261244245072,0.24890803919253926],[0.4251274280203885,0.22799283647885385]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-1-280|EC-M-1-280-2023||3709","EC-M-1-280|EC-M-1-280-2019||1488","EC-M-1-280|EC-M-1-280-2014||208"],"all_keys":["EC-M-1-280|EC-M-1-280-2023||3709","EC-M-1-280|EC-M-1-280-2019||1488","EC-M-1-280|EC-M-1-280-2014||208"],"shares":[[0.36555208402579276,0.35504885993485347],[0.3604382588095943,0.2639028723719278],[0.5971112673355915,0.19505336486227393]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":62.26582968340235,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-1-285|EC-M-1-285-2023||3325","EC-M-1-285|EC-M-1-285-2019||1489","EC-M-1-285|EC-M-1-285-2014||209"],"all_keys":["EC-M-1-285|EC-M-1-285-2023||3325","EC-M-1-285|EC-M-1-285-2019||1489","EC-M-1-285|EC-M-1-285-2014||209"],"shares":[[0.4956317747937227,0.2768160491829801],[0.2553191489361702,0.176759410801964],[0.37620304914402525,0.3205008091303978]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":19.78620959596492,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[1.011754203243565,0,17.6759410801964,0,0,0,81.31230471656004],[0,22.085001277574314,6.950004258581041,0,1.2946086364023508,32.05008091303978,37.620304914402524]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":55.42969082701644,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-1-555","country":"Ecuador","region":"AZUAY","name":"PUCARÁ / AZUAY","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[0.8752359704822368,8.219178082191782,25.521838273987022],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-1-555|EC-M-1-555-2023||3326","EC-M-1-555|EC-M-1-555-2019||1490","EC-M-1-555|EC-M-1-555-2014||210"],"all_keys":["EC-M-1-555|EC-M-1-555-2023||3326","EC-M-1-555|EC-M-1-555-2019||1490","EC-M-1-555|EC-M-1-555-2014||210"],"shares":[[0.2889994851553115,0.2802471254504891],[0.37118336359135173,0.2889915827694339],[0.5846342746886511,0.3294158919487809]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":72.2846058282721,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,18.25383726687572,81.74616273312428],[0,0,0,0,0,58.46342746886511,41.53657253113489]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":40.20959020198939,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-1-556","country":"Ecuador","region":"AZUAY","name":"CAMILO PONCE ENRÍQUEZ / AZUAY","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[18.262853882906654,2.987598647125143,43.414096916299556],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-1-556|EC-M-1-556-2023||3822","EC-M-1-556|EC-M-1-556-2019||1491","EC-M-1-556|EC-M-1-556-2014||211"],"all_keys":["EC-M-1-556|EC-M-1-556-2023||3822","EC-M-1-556|EC-M-1-556-2019||1491","EC-M-1-556|EC-M-1-556-2014||211"],"shares":[[0.5913142694145332,0.40868573058546676],[0.3167176679014334,0.28684168143018196],[0.5871145374449339,0.1529735682819383]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":19.022991922442532,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[1.0146561443066517,0,0,0,0,0,98.98534385569334],[0,1.5088105726872247,0,2.5881057268722465,0,11.57488986784141,84.32819383259911]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":15.671806167400883,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-1-780","country":"Ecuador","region":"AZUAY","name":"OÑA / AZUAY","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[8.37676842889054,0.9304056568663981,6.058091286307054],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-1-780|EC-M-1-780-2023||3158","EC-M-1-780|EC-M-1-780-2019||1492","EC-M-1-780|EC-M-1-780-2014||212"],"all_keys":["EC-M-1-780|EC-M-1-780-2023||3158","EC-M-1-780|EC-M-1-780-2019||1492","EC-M-1-780|EC-M-1-780-2014||212"],"shares":[[0.39985107967237526,0.31608339538346986],[0.4212876814291031,0.4119836248604391],[0.44149377593360994,0.3809128630705394]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":70.44504058487526,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[31.608339538346986,0,0,0,0,0,68.391660461653],null,[0,44.149377593360995,0,0,0,38.09128630705394,17.759336099585063]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-1-855","country":"Ecuador","region":"AZUAY","name":"SAN FERNANDO / AZUAY","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[7.630522088353409,5.108798486281927,1.4925373134328375],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-1-855|EC-M-1-855-2023||3782","EC-M-1-855|EC-M-1-855-2019||1493","EC-M-1-855|EC-M-1-855-2014||213"],"all_keys":["EC-M-1-855|EC-M-1-855-2023||3782","EC-M-1-855|EC-M-1-855-2019||1493","EC-M-1-855|EC-M-1-855-2014||213"],"shares":[[0.4062918340026773,0.32998661311914324],[0.37496058025859347,0.32387259539577423],[0.2498223169864961,0.23489694385216772]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":68.69896734880047,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,37.49605802585935,62.50394197414065],[0,17.199715707178395,0,19.189765458422176,0,15.138592750533048,48.47192608386638]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":36.38948116560057,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-1-885","country":"Ecuador","region":"AZUAY","name":"NABÓN / AZUAY","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[6.09391675560299,5.888049583575441,9.348566406679115],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-1-885|EC-M-1-885-2023||3777","EC-M-1-885|EC-M-1-885-2019||1494","EC-M-1-885|EC-M-1-885-2014||214"],"all_keys":["EC-M-1-885|EC-M-1-885-2023||3777","EC-M-1-885|EC-M-1-885-2019||1494","EC-M-1-885|EC-M-1-885-2014||214"],"shares":[[0.46478121664887945,0.40384204909284954],[0.29217509200077474,0.23329459616502035],[0.3349445237833681,0.24145885971657693]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":68.21189215448831,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,23.329459616502035,0,0,7.776486538834011,68.89405384466396],[0,21.92683730638251,0,0,0,24.145885971657695,53.92727672195979]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":38.29623673920619,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-1-915","country":"Ecuador","region":"AZUAY","name":"CHORDELEG / AZUAY","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[23.629385964912277,24.22038703315666,19.09314790670723],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-1-915|EC-M-1-915-2023||3327","EC-M-1-915|EC-M-1-915-2019||1495","EC-M-1-915|EC-M-1-915-2014||215"],"all_keys":["EC-M-1-915|EC-M-1-915-2023||3327","EC-M-1-915|EC-M-1-915-2019||1495","EC-M-1-915|EC-M-1-915-2014||215"],"shares":[[0.46354166666666663,0.22724780701754388],[0.503389621594971,0.26118575126340443],[0.354918151528321,0.16398667246124873]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-1-955|EC-M-1-955-2023||3710","EC-M-1-955|EC-M-1-955-2019||1496","EC-M-1-955|EC-M-1-955-2014||216"],"all_keys":["EC-M-1-955|EC-M-1-955-2023||3710","EC-M-1-955|EC-M-1-955-2019||1496","EC-M-1-955|EC-M-1-955-2014||216"],"shares":[[0.3303295571575695,0.24948506694129763],[0.36998087954110903,0.21940726577437858],[0.45556445156124903,0.2799572991726715]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":44.38025325068,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,21.940726577437857,78.05927342256214],[0,26.447824926607954,0,0,0,27.99572991726715,45.5564451561249]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":32.50282826643724,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-1-960","country":"Ecuador","region":"AZUAY","name":"EL PAN / AZUAY","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[0.2763703362505723,8.46219931271478,4.76878612716763],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-1-960|EC-M-1-960-2023||3711","EC-M-1-960|EC-M-1-960-2019||1497","EC-M-1-960|EC-M-1-960-2014||217"],"all_keys":["EC-M-1-960|EC-M-1-960-2023||3711","EC-M-1-960|EC-M-1-960-2019||1497","EC-M-1-960|EC-M-1-960-2014||217"],"shares":[[0.34592353754030397,0.3431598341777983],[0.4381443298969072,0.3535223367697594],[0.39932562620423895,0.35163776493256266]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":84.0931969585923,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,35.35223367697594,64.64776632302406],[0,0,0,0,0,39.932562620423894,60.067437379576106]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":4.580328943447952,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-1-990","country":"Ecuador","region":"AZUAY","name":"GUACHAPALA / AZUAY","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[24.073319755600817,0.12350761630300866,2.013108614232209],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-1-990|EC-M-1-990-2023||3470","EC-M-1-990|EC-M-1-990-2019||1498","EC-M-1-990|EC-M-1-990-2014||218"],"all_keys":["EC-M-1-990|EC-M-1-990-2023||3470","EC-M-1-990|EC-M-1-990-2019||1498","EC-M-1-990|EC-M-1-990-2014||218"],"shares":[[0.5604887983706721,0.3197556008146639],[0.37258130918073284,0.37134623301770275],[0.35346441947565543,0.33333333333333337]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":26.58822500162693,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,7.128309572301426,0,0,0,0,92.87169042769857],[6.051873198847262,0,0,0,0,0,93.94812680115275],[0,33.333333333333336,0,11.51685393258427,0,35.346441947565545,19.803370786516854]],"volatility_latest":7.128309572301436,"volatility_previous":80.19662921348316,"volatility_mean":43.6624693928923,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-2-165","country":"Ecuador","region":"BOLÍVAR","name":"GUARANDA / BOLÍVAR","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[18.03225751627322,13.465962419714003,12.11380074417827],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-2-165|EC-M-2-165-2023||2659","EC-M-2-165|EC-M-2-165-2019||1499","EC-M-2-165|EC-M-2-165-2014||219"],"all_keys":["EC-M-2-165|EC-M-2-165-2023||2659","EC-M-2-165|EC-M-2-165-2019||1499","EC-M-2-165|EC-M-2-165-2014||219"],"shares":[[0.46407994697394583,0.28375737181121363],[0.32476949408322137,0.1901098698860813],[0.38956478113633514,0.2684267736945525]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":19.647383449520216,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,28.375737181121366,0,0,0,71.62426281887862],[0,0,32.476949408322135,0,0,0,67.52305059167784],[0,0,26.842677369455245,7.960199004975125,38.956478113633516,0,26.24064551193612]],"volatility_latest":4.101212227200772,"volatility_previous":46.916677118608625,"volatility_mean":25.508944672904697,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-2-170","country":"Ecuador","region":"BOLÍVAR","name":"CHIMBO / BOLÍVAR","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[7.168882323978334,2.0596149865452276,22.83073367995378],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-2-170|EC-M-2-170-2023||2660","EC-M-2-170|EC-M-2-170-2019||1500","EC-M-2-170|EC-M-2-170-2014||220"],"all_keys":["EC-M-2-170|EC-M-2-170-2023||2660","EC-M-2-170|EC-M-2-170-2019||1500","EC-M-2-170|EC-M-2-170-2014||220"],"shares":[[0.2731659281142294,0.2014771048744461],[0.2932105154212378,0.27261436555578555],[0.4723281340265742,0.2440207972270364]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":63.98856370827026,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,7.257508616445101,0,0,0,92.74249138355488],[0,0,0,0,0,3.4775408818050093,96.52245911819499],[0,47.23281340265742,0,9.035239745811669,24.40207972270364,0,19.329867128827267]],"volatility_latest":7.25750861644511,"volatility_previous":80.67013287117273,"volatility_mean":43.96382074380892,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-2-175","country":"Ecuador","region":"BOLÍVAR","name":"SAN MIGUEL / BOLÍVAR","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[6.9904908763813935,12.902203201775244,5.8777734527053305],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-2-175|EC-M-2-175-2023||3273","EC-M-2-175|EC-M-2-175-2019||1501","EC-M-2-175|EC-M-2-175-2014||221"],"all_keys":["EC-M-2-175|EC-M-2-175-2023||3273","EC-M-2-175|EC-M-2-175-2019||1501","EC-M-2-175|EC-M-2-175-2014||221"],"shares":[[0.425597532767926,0.35569262400411206],[0.35969778623130977,0.23067575421355735],[0.35127620530501025,0.292498470777957]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":56.736335841840294,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,2.847783589581022,97.15221641041897],[0,0,0,17.688928432408385,29.249847077795696,0,53.06122448979592]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":46.93877551020408,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-2-180","country":"Ecuador","region":"BOLÍVAR","name":"CHILLANES / BOLÍVAR","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[24.310107631302095,2.249738402511337,8.872336413350933],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-2-180|EC-M-2-180-2023||2661","EC-M-2-180|EC-M-2-180-2019||1502","EC-M-2-180|EC-M-2-180-2014||222"],"all_keys":["EC-M-2-180|EC-M-2-180-2023||2661","EC-M-2-180|EC-M-2-180-2019||1502","EC-M-2-180|EC-M-2-180-2014||222"],"shares":[[0.39904507566561465,0.15594399935259368],[0.23517614230903383,0.21267875828392047],[0.3612106354893456,0.27248727135583634]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":19.258901295651253,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,13.401310997815004,0,0,0,86.598689002185],null,[0,36.121063548934565,3.337733358476334,16.170092400528002,27.248727135583632,0,17.122383556477466]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-2-185","country":"Ecuador","region":"BOLÍVAR","name":"ECHEANDÍA / BOLÍVAR","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[30.179948586118254,15.86276860647422,11.013794613531864],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-2-185|EC-M-2-185-2023||2662","EC-M-2-185|EC-M-2-185-2019||1503","EC-M-2-185|EC-M-2-185-2014||223"],"all_keys":["EC-M-2-185|EC-M-2-185-2023||2662","EC-M-2-185|EC-M-2-185-2019||1503","EC-M-2-185|EC-M-2-185-2014||223"],"shares":[[0.4768637532133676,0.17506426735218508],[0.4456331273632758,0.2870054412985336],[0.43387343989489824,0.32373549375957955]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,3.290488431876607,0,0,0,96.70951156812339],[0,0,0,0,0,5.0539518583417875,94.9460481416582],[4.423034814977009,32.37354937595796,0,7.313334793080797,7.554193124589446,0,48.33588789139479]],"volatility_latest":5.053951858341794,"volatility_previous":51.6641121086052,"volatility_mean":28.3590319834735,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-2-760","country":"Ecuador","region":"BOLÍVAR","name":"CALUMA / BOLÍVAR","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[11.402469971240059,11.324515310744701,14.231362467866326],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-2-760|EC-M-2-760-2023||2663","EC-M-2-760|EC-M-2-760-2019||1504","EC-M-2-760|EC-M-2-760-2014||224"],"all_keys":["EC-M-2-760|EC-M-2-760-2023||2663","EC-M-2-760|EC-M-2-760-2019||1504","EC-M-2-760|EC-M-2-760-2014||224"],"shares":[[0.4506851632549484,0.3366604635425478],[0.3687262185178474,0.25548106541040044],[0.38673521850899745,0.2444215938303342]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":41.690135886229605,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,45.06851632549484,0,0,0,54.93148367450516],[0,0,0,0,0,1.893458959956514,98.1065410400435],[0,4.5244215938303345,12.380462724935732,8.84318766066838,11.136246786632391,0,63.11568123393317]],"volatility_latest":45.06851632549485,"volatility_previous":36.88431876606684,"volatility_mean":40.97641754578085,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-2-950","country":"Ecuador","region":"BOLÍVAR","name":"LAS NAVES / BOLÍVAR","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[17.66178047908473,1.684952978056426,0.35869843709966887],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-2-950|EC-M-2-950-2023||2664","EC-M-2-950|EC-M-2-950-2019||1505","EC-M-2-950|EC-M-2-950-2014||225"],"all_keys":["EC-M-2-950|EC-M-2-950-2023||2664","EC-M-2-950|EC-M-2-950-2019||1505","EC-M-2-950|EC-M-2-950-2014||225"],"shares":[[0.4946371111905613,0.318019306399714],[0.20180250783699058,0.18495297805642633],[0.22982321291314375,0.22623622854214706]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":44.30787987711135,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,49.46371111905613,0,0,0,50.53628888094387],[0,0,0,0,0,20.18025078369906,79.81974921630093],[22.982321291314374,6.994619523443505,21.957468613886753,5.918524212144504,19.523443504996155,0,22.623622854214705]],"volatility_latest":49.46371111905613,"volatility_previous":77.3763771457853,"volatility_mean":63.42004413242071,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-3-235","country":"Ecuador","region":"CAÑAR","name":"AZOGUES / CAÑAR","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[4.110141034251178,3.945685538881307,7.177752724539648],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-3-235|EC-M-3-235-2023||2665","EC-M-3-235|EC-M-3-235-2019||1506","EC-M-3-235|EC-M-3-235-2014||226"],"all_keys":["EC-M-3-235|EC-M-3-235-2023||2665","EC-M-3-235|EC-M-3-235-2019||1506","EC-M-3-235|EC-M-3-235-2014||226"],"shares":[[0.2725319006044325,0.23143049026192075],[0.41445685538881305,0.375],[0.29946448703494927,0.22768695978955278]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":78.16217222665468,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,7.306917394224311,0,0,0,92.69308260577567],[41.44568553888131,0,3.0056275579809,37.5,0,0,18.04868690313779],[0,16.75826756858324,5.554772641863961,29.946448703494926,3.924746335963923,22.76869597895528,21.04706877113867]],"volatility_latest":78.94568553888129,"volatility_previous":48.999236835386384,"volatility_mean":63.97246118713384,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-3-240","country":"Ecuador","region":"CAÑAR","name":"CAÑAR / CAÑAR","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[12.764944034293883,7.786453491974967,12.758806130680288],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-3-240|EC-M-3-240-2023||2666","EC-M-3-240|EC-M-3-240-2019||1507","EC-M-3-240|EC-M-3-240-2014||227"],"all_keys":["EC-M-3-240|EC-M-3-240-2023||2666","EC-M-3-240|EC-M-3-240-2019||1507","EC-M-3-240|EC-M-3-240-2014||227"],"shares":[[0.45959922430510664,0.33194978396216784],[0.401840490797546,0.3239759558777963],[0.41587120193600424,0.2882831406292014]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":43.64608459381576,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,45.959922430510666,0,0,0,54.04007756948933],[32.397595587779634,0,40.1840490797546,11.857842225940386,0,0,15.560513106525377],[0,17.474455498789997,41.58712019360043,0,0,28.82831406292014,12.110110244689432]],"volatility_latest":44.255437813720015,"volatility_previous":47.70584067555596,"volatility_mean":45.980639244637985,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-3-241","country":"Ecuador","region":"CAÑAR","name":"SUSCAL / CAÑAR","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[8.602788490062295,4.006868918145393,1.541717049576782],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-3-241|EC-M-3-241-2023||2667","EC-M-3-241|EC-M-3-241-2019||1508","EC-M-3-241|EC-M-3-241-2014||228"],"all_keys":["EC-M-3-241|EC-M-3-241-2023||2667","EC-M-3-241|EC-M-3-241-2019||1508","EC-M-3-241|EC-M-3-241-2014||228"],"shares":[[0.5105309997033521,0.4245031148027292],[0.4527761877504293,0.4127074985689754],[0.3663845223700121,0.35096735187424427]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":67.41047262780664,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,42.450311480272916,0,0,0,57.54968851972708],[0,0,45.27761877504293,0,0,0,54.72238122495707],[0,11.396614268440144,36.63845223700121,0,0,35.09673518742443,16.86819830713422]],"volatility_latest":2.827307294770012,"volatility_previous":46.49334945586457,"volatility_mean":24.66032837531729,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-3-245","country":"Ecuador","region":"CAÑAR","name":"BIBLIÁN / CAÑAR","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[2.36480293308891,2.0095144356955394,29.974114076586627],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-3-245|EC-M-3-245-2023||2668","EC-M-3-245|EC-M-3-245-2019||1509","EC-M-3-245|EC-M-3-245-2014||229"],"all_keys":["EC-M-3-245|EC-M-3-245-2023||2668","EC-M-3-245|EC-M-3-245-2019||1509","EC-M-3-245|EC-M-3-245-2014||229"],"shares":[[0.3513290559120073,0.3276810265811182],[0.3217683727034121,0.3016732283464567],[0.4884405962688565,0.18869945550299025]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":74.90426250889665,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,35.13290559120073,0,0,0,64.86709440879926],[30.16732283464567,0,9.735892388451443,27.91994750656168,0,0,32.17683727034121],[0,12.960814067660449,48.84405962688565,14.192626974917433,0,18.869945550299025,5.132553780237436]],"volatility_latest":58.08727034120734,"volatility_previous":70.93892685639369,"volatility_mean":64.51309859880052,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-3-250","country":"Ecuador","region":"CAÑAR","name":"LA TRONCAL / CAÑAR","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[1.4382753452179742,0.8701534298803928,1.0224387566046822],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-3-250|EC-M-3-250-2023||2669","EC-M-3-250|EC-M-3-250-2019||1510","EC-M-3-250|EC-M-3-250-2014||230"],"all_keys":["EC-M-3-250|EC-M-3-250-2023||2669","EC-M-3-250|EC-M-3-250-2019||1510","EC-M-3-250|EC-M-3-250-2014||230"],"shares":[[0.3031858915074784,0.28880313805529867],[0.18829751252959442,0.17959597823079052],[0.2587319014616071,0.24850751389556028]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":93.86872444122315,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,3.6610645151002967,15.907133973275505,0,0,80.4318015116242],[7.960520247209667,0,1.7403068597607847,18.829751252959444,0,0,71.46942164007011],[0,0,0,0,2.010567487819941,24.850751389556027,73.13868112262404]],"volatility_latest":10.883137526893604,"volatility_previous":28.530578359929894,"volatility_mean":19.706857943411748,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-3-765","country":"Ecuador","region":"CAÑAR","name":"EL TAMBO / CAÑAR","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[1.3131976362442543,14.415894831192112,17.96954314720812],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-3-765|EC-M-3-765-2023||2670","EC-M-3-765|EC-M-3-765-2019||1511","EC-M-3-765|EC-M-3-765-2014||231"],"all_keys":["EC-M-3-765|EC-M-3-765-2023||2670","EC-M-3-765|EC-M-3-765-2019||1511","EC-M-3-765|EC-M-3-765-2014||231"],"shares":[[0.3360144451739987,0.32288246881155613],[0.4070809680310726,0.26292201971915147],[0.4392554991539763,0.2595600676818951]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":65.451793270875,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,32.288246881155615,0,0,0,67.71175311884438],[9.949208246190619,0,26.292201971915148,23.050492978786973,0,0,40.70809680310726],[0,22.7580372250423,43.92554991539763,0,0,25.95600676818951,7.3604060913705585]],"volatility_latest":32.99970122497759,"volatility_previous":66.3473919367143,"volatility_mean":49.67354658084595,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-3-905","country":"Ecuador","region":"CAÑAR","name":"DELEG / CAÑAR","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[3.5276073619631916,15.556216537775136,16.869450838539954],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-3-905|EC-M-3-905-2023||3688","EC-M-3-905|EC-M-3-905-2019||1512","EC-M-3-905|EC-M-3-905-2014||232"],"all_keys":["EC-M-3-905|EC-M-3-905-2023||3688","EC-M-3-905|EC-M-3-905-2019||1512","EC-M-3-905|EC-M-3-905-2014||232"],"shares":[[0.4552147239263804,0.4199386503067485],[0.41195716835217133,0.25639500297441997],[0.5050970075633016,0.336402499177902]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":57.64812768817775,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[25.639500297441998,0,7.0493753718024985,20.701963117192147,0,41.195716835217134,5.413444378346222],[0,33.6402499177902,0,8.747122657020716,7.102926668858928,50.509700756330155,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":50.05716050776215,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-4-5","country":"Ecuador","region":"CARCHI","name":"TULCÁN / CARCHI","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[1.7721082571970328,5.3803436714166,34.842551655688894],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-4-5|EC-M-4-5-2023||3123","EC-M-4-5|EC-M-4-5-2019||1513","EC-M-4-5|EC-M-4-5-2014||233"],"all_keys":["EC-M-4-5|EC-M-4-5-2023||3123","EC-M-4-5|EC-M-4-5-2019||1513","EC-M-4-5|EC-M-4-5-2014||233"],"shares":[[0.29827615928288226,0.2805550767109119],[0.33317616652696286,0.27937272981279687],[0.5961201840656861,0.24769466750879726]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":69.19188389343955,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,4.73366660920531,0,0,95.2663333907947],[0,0,0,0,0,2.0571388656049177,97.94286113439509],null],"volatility_latest":4.733666609205308,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-4-10","country":"Ecuador","region":"CARCHI","name":"MONTÚFAR / CARCHI","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[12.176103065820701,11.786362966962841,12.799463031805036],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-4-10|EC-M-4-10-2023||3408","EC-M-4-10|EC-M-4-10-2019||1514","EC-M-4-10|EC-M-4-10-2014||234"],"all_keys":["EC-M-4-10|EC-M-4-10-2023||3408","EC-M-4-10|EC-M-4-10-2019||1514","EC-M-4-10|EC-M-4-10-2014||234"],"shares":[[0.43163655736910933,0.3098755267109023],[0.3608070296009033,0.24294339993127487],[0.42694134655101196,0.2989467162329616]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":39.392414836191115,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,1.8888942703540466,0,0,98.11110572964597],[0,0,0,24.294339993127487,0,0,75.70566000687252],null],"volatility_latest":22.405445722773443,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-4-15","country":"Ecuador","region":"CARCHI","name":"ESPEJO / CARCHI","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[3.1411642998213125,5.723969120692903,9.973917579551387],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-4-15|EC-M-4-15-2023||2671","EC-M-4-15|EC-M-4-15-2019||1515","EC-M-4-15|EC-M-4-15-2014||235"],"all_keys":["EC-M-4-15|EC-M-4-15-2023||2671","EC-M-4-15|EC-M-4-15-2019||1515","EC-M-4-15|EC-M-4-15-2014||235"],"shares":[[0.2754631806639707,0.24405153766575755],[0.32376200338919225,0.26652231218226324],[0.40396452790818993,0.30422535211267604]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":77.00359462972102,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,16.19486504279131,27.546318066397067,0,0,56.25881689081162],[0,0,0,32.376200338919226,0,11.711542082470345,55.91225757861043],null],"volatility_latest":16.541424354992504,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-4-20","country":"Ecuador","region":"CARCHI","name":"MIRA / CARCHI","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[13.510671853643153,11.081530782029951,1.5998992189468382],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-4-20|EC-M-4-20-2023||2672","EC-M-4-20|EC-M-4-20-2019||1516","EC-M-4-20|EC-M-4-20-2014||236"],"all_keys":["EC-M-4-20|EC-M-4-20-2023||2672","EC-M-4-20|EC-M-4-20-2019||1516","EC-M-4-20|EC-M-4-20-2014||236"],"shares":[[0.3950162969193565,0.259909578382925],[0.37825845812534664,0.2674431503050472],[0.41559586797682035,0.399596875787352]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":42.0457386565522,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,2.544422247923457,19.482704237199034,0,0,77.9728735148775],[0,0,0,1.3089295618413754,0,20.86522462562396,77.82584581253467],null],"volatility_latest":20.86522462562396,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-4-25","country":"Ecuador","region":"CARCHI","name":"BOLÍVAR / CARCHI","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[3.7883008356545993,16.88402889245586,23.48819661528512],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-4-25|EC-M-4-25-2023||2673","EC-M-4-25|EC-M-4-25-2019||1517","EC-M-4-25|EC-M-4-25-2014||237"],"all_keys":["EC-M-4-25|EC-M-4-25-2023||2673","EC-M-4-25|EC-M-4-25-2019||1517","EC-M-4-25|EC-M-4-25-2014||237"],"shares":[[0.3480037140204271,0.31012070566388117],[0.3785112359550562,0.2096709470304976],[0.6174409830764256,0.3825590169235744]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":51.56495584670985,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,23.40761374187558,1.0492107706592386,4.25255338904364,0,0,71.29062209842155],[0,0,0,0,0,19.813402889245587,80.18659711075442],null],"volatility_latest":28.709377901578456,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-4-995","country":"Ecuador","region":"CARCHI","name":"SAN PEDRO DE HUACA / CARCHI","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[9.567198177676538,0.034328870580157655,0.2896976281006687],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-4-995|EC-M-4-995-2023||3430","EC-M-4-995|EC-M-4-995-2019||1518","EC-M-4-995|EC-M-4-995-2014||238"],"all_keys":["EC-M-4-995|EC-M-4-995-2023||3430","EC-M-4-995|EC-M-4-995-2019||1518","EC-M-4-995|EC-M-4-995-2014||238"],"shares":[[0.304751057598438,0.20907907582167262],[0.19035358736697564,0.19001029866117405],[0.44359949302915086,0.44070251674814415]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":71.10206334704982,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,20.56622193296453,0,0,79.43377806703546],[0,0,0,0,0,16.28904909028493,83.71095090971507],null],"volatility_latest":20.56622193296453,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-5-100","country":"Ecuador","region":"COTOPAXI","name":"LATACUNGA / COTOPAXI","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[0.7669085680168877,9.225210188481583,34.30969477652944],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-5-100|EC-M-5-100-2023||3535","EC-M-5-100|EC-M-5-100-2019||1519","EC-M-5-100|EC-M-5-100-2014||239"],"all_keys":["EC-M-5-100|EC-M-5-100-2023||3535","EC-M-5-100|EC-M-5-100-2019||1519","EC-M-5-100|EC-M-5-100-2014||239"],"shares":[[0.2614973217063716,0.2538282360262027],[0.24750304074149704,0.1552509388566812],[0.5882325079100434,0.24513556014474905]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":66.70661162496224,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,6.500528245603133,9.848451219403925,0,83.65102053499292],[0,58.82325079100434,0,3.7939788939201606,0,24.513556014474904,12.869214300600595]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":83.33680680547924,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-5-105","country":"Ecuador","region":"COTOPAXI","name":"PUJILÍ / COTOPAXI","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[45.84469096671949,8.311588825317788,6.037884767166535],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-5-105|EC-M-5-105-2023||3365","EC-M-5-105|EC-M-5-105-2019||1520","EC-M-5-105|EC-M-5-105-2014||240"],"all_keys":["EC-M-5-105|EC-M-5-105-2023||3365","EC-M-5-105|EC-M-5-105-2019||1520","EC-M-5-105|EC-M-5-105-2014||240"],"shares":[[0.6370628631801373,0.1786159535129424],[0.30263567376056305,0.21951978550738516],[0.28976585109181796,0.22938700342015259]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,30.263567376056304,0,69.7364326239437],[0,22.93870034201526,0,16.216785056564063,13.506971849513286,28.976585109181794,18.360957642725598]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":68.13207050776111,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-5-110","country":"Ecuador","region":"COTOPAXI","name":"SALCEDO / COTOPAXI","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[22.842839880644124,10.435804571510804,13.64269902435025],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-5-110|EC-M-5-110-2023||2674","EC-M-5-110|EC-M-5-110-2019||1521","EC-M-5-110|EC-M-5-110-2014||241"],"all_keys":["EC-M-5-110|EC-M-5-110-2023||2674","EC-M-5-110|EC-M-5-110-2019||1521","EC-M-5-110|EC-M-5-110-2014||241"],"shares":[[0.4241325737959606,0.19570417498951936],[0.37114143861079796,0.2667833928956899],[0.3522724167144926,0.21584542647099014]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":8.9964239886263,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,7.935685926364331,0,0,0,92.06431407363567],[0,0,26.678339289568992,0,0.7603194780898472,0,72.56134123234116],[0,0,0,0,10.207428056079364,15.107540105490422,74.68503183843022]],"volatility_latest":19.502972841294508,"volatility_previous":26.678339289568992,"volatility_mean":23.09065606543175,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-5-115","country":"Ecuador","region":"COTOPAXI","name":"SAQUISILÍ / COTOPAXI","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[5.757121439280358,8.641044963576995,14.737742303306725],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-5-115|EC-M-5-115-2023||2675","EC-M-5-115|EC-M-5-115-2019||1522","EC-M-5-115|EC-M-5-115-2014||242"],"all_keys":["EC-M-5-115|EC-M-5-115-2023||2675","EC-M-5-115|EC-M-5-115-2019||1522","EC-M-5-115|EC-M-5-115-2014||242"],"shares":[[0.312263868065967,0.2546926536731634],[0.39851796031147957,0.31210751067570963],[0.3954532497149373,0.24807582668187003]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":62.39819708514007,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,25.469265367316343,0,0,0,74.53073463268366],[0,0,31.21075106757096,6.650339110776187,39.851796031147956,0,22.2871137905049],[0,3.7129418472063853,39.54532497149373,3.6559293044469783,16.006271379703534,24.807582668187003,12.271949828962372]],"volatility_latest":52.24362084217876,"volatility_previous":36.85509841931616,"volatility_mean":44.54935963074746,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-5-120","country":"Ecuador","region":"COTOPAXI","name":"PANGUA / COTOPAXI","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[2.023414766190701,9.686271601275685,7.686274509803916],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-5-120|EC-M-5-120-2023||2676","EC-M-5-120|EC-M-5-120-2019||1523","EC-M-5-120|EC-M-5-120-2014||243"],"all_keys":["EC-M-5-120|EC-M-5-120-2023||2676","EC-M-5-120|EC-M-5-120-2019||1523","EC-M-5-120|EC-M-5-120-2014||243"],"shares":[[0.24883264532719768,0.22859849766529067],[0.3419862048505526,0.24512348883779572],[0.39980392156862743,0.3229411764705883]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":75.55721104461242,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[24.883264532719767,0,22.859849766529067,1.5023347093456048,0,0,50.754550991405566],[0,0,0,2.2546910924868353,24.512348883779573,0,73.2329600237336],[0,32.294117647058826,0,4.205882352941177,0,39.98039215686274,23.519607843137255]],"volatility_latest":47.74311429924884,"volatility_previous":74.22570106437591,"volatility_mean":60.98440768181237,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-5-825","country":"Ecuador","region":"COTOPAXI","name":"LA MANÁ / COTOPAXI","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[1.775787523162446,10.632337246531485,0.7199367088607609],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-5-825|EC-M-5-825-2023||3274","EC-M-5-825|EC-M-5-825-2019||1524","EC-M-5-825|EC-M-5-825-2014||244"],"all_keys":["EC-M-5-825|EC-M-5-825-2023||3274","EC-M-5-825|EC-M-5-825-2019||1524","EC-M-5-825|EC-M-5-825-2014||244"],"shares":[[0.33323038912909203,0.3154725138974676],[0.4503735325506937,0.34405016008537886],[0.30276898734177216,0.2955696202531646]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":78.36416320628506,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,33.323038912909205,0,0,66.67696108709079],null,[0,3.1724683544303796,7.3219936708860756,26.27373417721519,1.1629746835443038,29.556962025316455,32.511867088607595]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-5-930","country":"Ecuador","region":"COTOPAXI","name":"SIGCHOS / COTOPAXI","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[15.610632183908045,3.3124101943583177,20.285618840821783],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-5-930|EC-M-5-930-2023||3366","EC-M-5-930|EC-M-5-930-2019||1525","EC-M-5-930|EC-M-5-930-2014||245"],"all_keys":["EC-M-5-930|EC-M-5-930-2023||3366","EC-M-5-930|EC-M-5-930-2019||1525","EC-M-5-930|EC-M-5-930-2014||245"],"shares":[[0.4526580459770115,0.296551724137931],[0.319821523103683,0.28669742116009983],[0.5896108234508101,0.3867546350425923]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":38.0566787363275,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,18.84595023822128,6.1105649247523255,31.9821523103683,28.66974211600998,14.391590410648114],[0,0,0,0,2.363454150659763,38.67546350425923,58.96108234508101]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":54.575213322682146,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-6-190","country":"Ecuador","region":"CHIMBORAZO","name":"CHAMBO / CHIMBORAZO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[17.903978661924867,6.740556435195657,19.053533722518942],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-6-190|EC-M-6-190-2023||2677","EC-M-6-190|EC-M-6-190-2019||1526","EC-M-6-190|EC-M-6-190-2014||246"],"all_keys":["EC-M-6-190|EC-M-6-190-2023||2677","EC-M-6-190|EC-M-6-190-2019||1526","EC-M-6-190|EC-M-6-190-2014||246"],"shares":[[0.5107801733718604,0.33174038675261175],[0.31565256729246777,0.2482470029405112],[0.5281331511613464,0.33759781393615695]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":26.650462500172434,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,1.066903756390309,0.32229384307623915,0,0,98.61080240053346],null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-6-195","country":"Ecuador","region":"CHIMBORAZO","name":"RIOBAMBA / CHIMBORAZO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[6.333294107263688,1.4773454312801704,19.786190749657635],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-6-195|EC-M-6-195-2023||2678","EC-M-6-195|EC-M-6-195-2019||1527","EC-M-6-195|EC-M-6-195-2014||247"],"all_keys":["EC-M-6-195|EC-M-6-195-2023||2678","EC-M-6-195|EC-M-6-195-2019||1527","EC-M-6-195|EC-M-6-195-2014||247"],"shares":[[0.21991115295225205,0.15657821187961518],[0.22884313383353688,0.2140696795207352],[0.41104533875219035,0.21318343125561398]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":68.89100415645986,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[3.2368862345915095,0,15.657821187961519,0,0,0,81.10529257744697],null,[0,21.318343125561398,0,0,8.158472117919041,0,70.52318475651956]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-6-200","country":"Ecuador","region":"CHIMBORAZO","name":"GUANO / CHIMBORAZO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[14.222379854584148,3.0878438331854525,25.65877448281287],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-6-200|EC-M-6-200-2023||2679","EC-M-6-200|EC-M-6-200-2019||1528","EC-M-6-200|EC-M-6-200-2014||248"],"all_keys":["EC-M-6-200|EC-M-6-200-2023||2679","EC-M-6-200|EC-M-6-200-2019||1528","EC-M-6-200|EC-M-6-200-2014||248"],"shares":[[0.3321865579003369,0.18996275935449547],[0.3222360248447205,0.29135758651286603],[0.43652167073074805,0.17993392590261936]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":39.871707445062945,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,5.603830466394751,0.8192942010994857,0,0,93.57687533250575],[0,0,5.149955634427684,0,0,0,94.85004436557233],[0,17.993392590261937,0,0,0,0,82.00660740973807]],"volatility_latest":1.2731690330665661,"volatility_previous":17.99339259026194,"volatility_mean":9.633280811664253,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-6-205","country":"Ecuador","region":"CHIMBORAZO","name":"COLTA / CHIMBORAZO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[3.5401570048309168,9.17019413224347,9.618192436852095],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-6-205|EC-M-6-205-2023||2680","EC-M-6-205|EC-M-6-205-2019||1529","EC-M-6-205|EC-M-6-205-2014||249"],"all_keys":["EC-M-6-205|EC-M-6-205-2023||2680","EC-M-6-205|EC-M-6-205-2019||1529","EC-M-6-205|EC-M-6-205-2014||249"],"shares":[[0.2833635265700483,0.24796195652173914],[0.3278353525032842,0.2361334111808495],[0.4060081763761133,0.30982625200759234]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":70.815141568716,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,15.674064009661835,0,0,0,84.32593599033815],[0,0,19.048314114727777,0,0,0,80.95168588527223],[0,30.982625200759234,0,0,0,0,69.01737479924077]],"volatility_latest":3.3742501050659337,"volatility_previous":30.982625200759234,"volatility_mean":17.178437652912585,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-6-210","country":"Ecuador","region":"CHIMBORAZO","name":"GUAMOTE / CHIMBORAZO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[6.248040137974286,5.384377177363167,9.27532533809645],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-6-210|EC-M-6-210-2023||2681","EC-M-6-210|EC-M-6-210-2019||1530","EC-M-6-210|EC-M-6-210-2014||250"],"all_keys":["EC-M-6-210|EC-M-6-210-2023||2681","EC-M-6-210|EC-M-6-210-2019||1530","EC-M-6-210|EC-M-6-210-2014||250"],"shares":[[0.26246472248353714,0.1999843211037943],[0.24088410621661377,0.18704033444298213],[0.44837118312494684,0.3556179297439823]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":68.54165115098418,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,11.778770774537472,0,0,0,88.22122922546252],[0,0,24.088410621661378,0,0,0,75.91158937833863],null],"volatility_latest":12.309639847123897,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-6-215","country":"Ecuador","region":"CHIMBORAZO","name":"ALAUSÍ / CHIMBORAZO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[7.022834984920294,1.8862351253270333,23.941828627855827],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-6-215|EC-M-6-215-2023||2682","EC-M-6-215|EC-M-6-215-2019||1531","EC-M-6-215|EC-M-6-215-2014||251"],"all_keys":["EC-M-6-215|EC-M-6-215-2023||2682","EC-M-6-215|EC-M-6-215-2019||1531","EC-M-6-215|EC-M-6-215-2014||251"],"shares":[[0.27397673416630763,0.20374838431710468],[0.28327285002953834,0.26441049877626804],[0.42843036042910365,0.18901207415054536]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":64.13122804332065,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,19.12537699267557,19.47436449806118,0,0,61.400258509263246],[0,0,0,0,23.29310490336737,3.7471516583677946,72.95974343826482],[0,15.15777189281386,0,0,0,0,84.84222810718614]],"volatility_latest":38.59974149073675,"volatility_previous":27.040256561735173,"volatility_mean":32.81999902623596,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-6-220","country":"Ecuador","region":"CHIMBORAZO","name":"CHUNCHI / CHIMBORAZO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[20.484474069257033,3.967821107172078,11.123690914237187],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-6-220|EC-M-6-220-2023||2683","EC-M-6-220|EC-M-6-220-2019||1532","EC-M-6-220|EC-M-6-220-2014||252"],"all_keys":["EC-M-6-220|EC-M-6-220-2023||2683","EC-M-6-220|EC-M-6-220-2019||1532","EC-M-6-220|EC-M-6-220-2014||252"],"shares":[[0.489188749796781,0.2843440091042107],[0.38710117262067084,0.3474229615489501],[0.4361732238890461,0.3249363147466742]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":27.03300067435219,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0.8616485124370021,0,0,0,99.13835148756299],null,[0,43.61732238890461,0,0,0,0,56.38267761109539]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-6-225","country":"Ecuador","region":"CHIMBORAZO","name":"PENIPE / CHIMBORAZO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[6.0252075007685235,9.716017868538607,24.606761887542937],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-6-225|EC-M-6-225-2023||2684","EC-M-6-225|EC-M-6-225-2019||1533","EC-M-6-225|EC-M-6-225-2014||253"],"all_keys":["EC-M-6-225|EC-M-6-225-2023||2684","EC-M-6-225|EC-M-6-225-2019||1533","EC-M-6-225|EC-M-6-225-2014||253"],"shares":[[0.36904395942207197,0.3087918844143867],[0.3589661774090619,0.2618059987236758],[0.5297414572410052,0.28367383836557586]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":55.04696975111505,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,36.904395942207195,0,0,0,63.095604057792805],null,[0,28.367383836557586,0,0,0,0,71.6326161634424]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-6-830","country":"Ecuador","region":"CHIMBORAZO","name":"PALLATANGA / CHIMBORAZO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[4.842615012106538,3.2254123396456933,16.677929449925664],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-6-830|EC-M-6-830-2023||2685","EC-M-6-830|EC-M-6-830-2019||1534","EC-M-6-830|EC-M-6-830-2014||254"],"all_keys":["EC-M-6-830|EC-M-6-830-2023||2685","EC-M-6-830|EC-M-6-830-2019||1534","EC-M-6-830|EC-M-6-830-2014||254"],"shares":[[0.2516885433923792,0.20326239327131387],[0.27477092241905926,0.24251679902260231],[0.4297878091634004,0.26300851466414377]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":72.29507172924902,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,5.556263540206448,25.168854339237924,0,0,69.27488212055563],null,[0,0.5270982565211515,0,0,0,0,99.47290174347884]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-6-900","country":"Ecuador","region":"CHIMBORAZO","name":"CUMANDÁ / CHIMBORAZO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[26.01883986117997,3.773202150319504,2.557603686635943],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-6-900|EC-M-6-900-2023||2686","EC-M-6-900|EC-M-6-900-2019||1535","EC-M-6-900|EC-M-6-900-2014||255"],"all_keys":["EC-M-6-900|EC-M-6-900-2023||2686","EC-M-6-900|EC-M-6-900-2019||1535","EC-M-6-900|EC-M-6-900-2014||255"],"shares":[[0.4692117005453644,0.2090233019335647],[0.192108733137235,0.15437671163403996],[0.24400921658986174,0.21843317972350232]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":15.00487534766286,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,1.9038175508180466,0,0,0,98.09618244918195],[0,0,1.5214524799675424,0,11.380464550157217,3.002332893802617,84.09575007607263],[0,8.940092165898617,0,0,24.400921658986174,0,66.6589861751152]],"volatility_latest":14.382797443959829,"volatility_previous":21.960549274727583,"volatility_mean":18.171673359343707,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-7-350","country":"Ecuador","region":"EL ORO","name":"MACHALA / EL ORO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[14.887360507892762,10.003886117641063,14.800219880655142],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-7-350|EC-M-7-350-2023||2687","EC-M-7-350|EC-M-7-350-2019||1536","EC-M-7-350|EC-M-7-350-2014||256"],"all_keys":["EC-M-7-350|EC-M-7-350-2023||2687","EC-M-7-350|EC-M-7-350-2019||1536","EC-M-7-350|EC-M-7-350-2014||256"],"shares":[[0.4085903761211659,0.2597167710422383],[0.3288547420191248,0.22881588084271418],[0.530885946844514,0.38288374803796255]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":32.93197935953255,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0.6656249615512384,0,0,0,99.33437503844877],[22.881588084271417,0,0.42747294051691737,0,0,0,76.69093897521168],[53.088594684451394,0,0,0,0,0,46.911405315548606]],"volatility_latest":22.881588084271414,"volatility_previous":30.207006600179984,"volatility_mean":26.544297342225697,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-7-355","country":"Ecuador","region":"EL ORO","name":"SANTA ROSA / EL ORO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[6.209959853079354,10.097589233991357,6.495517904913882],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-7-355|EC-M-7-355-2023||2688","EC-M-7-355|EC-M-7-355-2019||1537","EC-M-7-355|EC-M-7-355-2014||257"],"all_keys":["EC-M-7-355|EC-M-7-355-2023||2688","EC-M-7-355|EC-M-7-355-2019||1537","EC-M-7-355|EC-M-7-355-2014||257"],"shares":[[0.30016229606218503,0.23806269753139148],[0.2689496902990063,0.16797379795909273],[0.43114938752522647,0.36619420847608763]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":62.97597763731796,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[23.806269753139148,0,1.9817203382591613,0,0,0,74.2120099086017],[16.797379795909272,0,0.38099906421282476,4.2310948709950535,0,4.295708747382024,74.29481752150083],[0,36.619420847608765,0,0.9574318299150514,0,0,62.42314732247619]],"volatility_latest":8.60961123127621,"volatility_previous":36.619420847608765,"volatility_mean":22.61451603944249,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-7-360","country":"Ecuador","region":"EL ORO","name":"ZARUMA / EL ORO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[8.374057315233784,4.269839352578813,11.734111378916658],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-7-360|EC-M-7-360-2023||3159","EC-M-7-360|EC-M-7-360-2019||1538","EC-M-7-360|EC-M-7-360-2014||258"],"all_keys":["EC-M-7-360|EC-M-7-360-2023||3159","EC-M-7-360|EC-M-7-360-2019||1538","EC-M-7-360|EC-M-7-360-2014||258"],"shares":[[0.34660633484162895,0.2628657616892911],[0.26367918830776665,0.2209807947819785],[0.3584929595331727,0.24115184574400608]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":62.6060133359721,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[26.28657616892911,0,0,0,0,0,73.7134238310709],[13.993235898055321,0,0,0,0,0,86.00676410194467],[14.277559304833185,35.84929595331727,0,1.655461118863377,0,0,48.21768362298617]],"volatility_latest":12.29334027087378,"volatility_previous":37.7890804789585,"volatility_mean":25.04121037491614,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-7-365","country":"Ecuador","region":"EL ORO","name":"PASAJE / EL ORO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[12.748205558168547,5.562739905987641,2.8820654437065762],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-7-365|EC-M-7-365-2023||2689","EC-M-7-365|EC-M-7-365-2019||1539","EC-M-7-365|EC-M-7-365-2014||259"],"all_keys":["EC-M-7-365|EC-M-7-365-2023||2689","EC-M-7-365|EC-M-7-365-2019||1539","EC-M-7-365|EC-M-7-365-2014||259"],"shares":[[0.32772335944050224,0.2002413038588168],[0.21834267298889504,0.16271527392901863],[0.28349442216231613,0.2546737677252504]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":51.97024074465961,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[7.417026236682276,11.656203349624752,2.192184208911883,0,0,0,78.73458620478111],[16.271527392901863,0,0,0,5.039308660221278,2.2538333641234067,76.43533058275345],[28.349442216231616,24.781379446380434,0,0,0,0,46.86917833738795]],"volatility_latest":16.147643180564284,"volatility_previous":36.85929426971018,"volatility_mean":26.503468725137232,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-7-370","country":"Ecuador","region":"EL ORO","name":"PIÑAS / EL ORO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[2.3479831426851305,4.484868349175134,10.452941845908732],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-7-370|EC-M-7-370-2023||2690","EC-M-7-370|EC-M-7-370-2019||1540","EC-M-7-370|EC-M-7-370-2014||260"],"all_keys":["EC-M-7-370|EC-M-7-370-2023||2690","EC-M-7-370|EC-M-7-370-2019||1540","EC-M-7-370|EC-M-7-370-2014||260"],"shares":[[0.26178096436976633,0.238301132942915],[0.2161040096143341,0.17125532612258276],[0.49061113007852514,0.3860817116194378]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":81.00227712522754,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[22.932516008975973,0,0.3174429423676865,0,0,0,76.75004104865634],[3.567136457991915,0,0,0,0,10.78334972140282,85.64951382060526],[0,0,0,12.33071583020371,0,0,87.6692841697963]],"volatility_latest":19.682822493351743,"volatility_previous":14.35048617939474,"volatility_mean":17.016654336373243,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-7-375","country":"Ecuador","region":"EL ORO","name":"ARENILLAS / EL ORO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[5.428876136305931,6.733758364508141,16.014341201075588],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-7-375|EC-M-7-375-2023||2691","EC-M-7-375|EC-M-7-375-2019||1541","EC-M-7-375|EC-M-7-375-2014||261"],"all_keys":["EC-M-7-375|EC-M-7-375-2023||2691","EC-M-7-375|EC-M-7-375-2019||1541","EC-M-7-375|EC-M-7-375-2014||261"],"shares":[[0.3798181910517496,0.32552942968869025],[0.48142684019179094,0.4140892565467095],[0.48252166118912454,0.32237824917836866]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":65.6055634437822,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.8176324209029506,32.552942968869026,0.5078462241633234,0,0,0,66.1215783860647],[3.9043152958533116,0,2.0074819537383424,48.14268401917909,0,0,45.94551873122925],[0,48.252166118912456,0,19.510008963250673,0,0,32.23782491783687]],"volatility_latest":52.729002623704474,"volatility_previous":48.252166118912456,"volatility_mean":50.490584371308465,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-7-380","country":"Ecuador","region":"EL ORO","name":"EL GUABO / EL ORO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[12.225540137010363,1.6897641624118656,16.632776150267105],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-7-380|EC-M-7-380-2023||2692","EC-M-7-380|EC-M-7-380-2019||1542","EC-M-7-380|EC-M-7-380-2014||262"],"all_keys":["EC-M-7-380|EC-M-7-380-2023||2692","EC-M-7-380|EC-M-7-380-2019||1542","EC-M-7-380|EC-M-7-380-2014||262"],"shares":[[0.37531471397622806,0.25305931260612446],[0.26078896182834915,0.2438913202042305],[0.5076339824228847,0.3413062209202137]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":52.472345270217566,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[13.74494993852099,0,25.305931260612446,0,0,0,60.949118800866565],[24.389132020423048,0,0,1.935934840748845,0,0,73.67493313882812],[50.763398242288474,5.655695330001723,0,3.3293124246079615,2.612441840427365,0,37.63915216267448]],"volatility_latest":25.305931260612454,"volatility_previous":36.03578097615364,"volatility_mean":30.670856118383046,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-7-585","country":"Ecuador","region":"EL ORO","name":"CHILLA / EL ORO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[16.422561545652854,1.321727917472593,4.976489028213166],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-7-585|EC-M-7-585-2023||3536","EC-M-7-585|EC-M-7-585-2019||1543","EC-M-7-585|EC-M-7-585-2014||263"],"all_keys":["EC-M-7-585|EC-M-7-585-2023||3536","EC-M-7-585|EC-M-7-585-2019||1543","EC-M-7-585|EC-M-7-585-2014||263"],"shares":[[0.5088812714241197,0.3446556559675911],[0.3465506125080593,0.33333333333333337],[0.3726489028213166,0.3228840125391849]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":46.26147897272597,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,37.26489028213166,0,9.20846394984326,0,0,53.52664576802508]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-7-690","country":"Ecuador","region":"EL ORO","name":"PORTOVELO / EL ORO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[8.618012422360248,11.524883270698098,36.208576998050674],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-7-690|EC-M-7-690-2023||3431","EC-M-7-690|EC-M-7-690-2019||1544","EC-M-7-690|EC-M-7-690-2014||264"],"all_keys":["EC-M-7-690|EC-M-7-690-2023||3431","EC-M-7-690|EC-M-7-690-2019||1544","EC-M-7-690|EC-M-7-690-2014||264"],"shares":[[0.3748890860692103,0.2887089618456078],[0.35235166837490034,0.23710283566791937],[0.6063596491228069,0.2442738791423002]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":38.75434932784677,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0.19964507542147295,0,37.48890860692103,0,0,62.3114463176575],[23.710283566791936,0,0,0,0,0,76.28971643320807],[0,0,0,11.098927875243664,0,0,88.90107212475634]],"volatility_latest":37.68855368234251,"volatility_previous":23.710283566791936,"volatility_mean":30.699418624567222,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-7-695","country":"Ecuador","region":"EL ORO","name":"HUAQUILLAS / EL ORO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[2.0672697468277583,10.806153846153848,21.957517127414192],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-7-695|EC-M-7-695-2023||2693","EC-M-7-695|EC-M-7-695-2019||1545","EC-M-7-695|EC-M-7-695-2014||265"],"all_keys":["EC-M-7-695|EC-M-7-695-2023||2693","EC-M-7-695|EC-M-7-695-2019||1545","EC-M-7-695|EC-M-7-695-2014||265"],"shares":[[0.25514540707910877,0.23447270961083116],[0.3427076923076923,0.23464615384615384],[0.5073845836058801,0.2878094123317382]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":66.61020142657885,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,11.128650355169691,0,0,0,88.87134964483032],[23.464615384615385,0,0,8.116923076923078,0.92,0,67.49846153846154],[2.4993975281440424,15.481805349950081,0,0,0.2616449203015802,0,81.7571522016043]],"volatility_latest":32.501538461538466,"volatility_previous":29.740496013092837,"volatility_mean":31.12101723731565,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-7-705","country":"Ecuador","region":"EL ORO","name":"ATAHUALPA / EL ORO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[13.079376993807472,25.215348472983553,19.907504729871775],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-7-705|EC-M-7-705-2023||2694","EC-M-7-705|EC-M-7-705-2019||1546","EC-M-7-705|EC-M-7-705-2014||266"],"all_keys":["EC-M-7-705|EC-M-7-705-2023||2694","EC-M-7-705|EC-M-7-705-2019||1546","EC-M-7-705|EC-M-7-705-2014||266"],"shares":[[0.5468192906736724,0.4160255207355976],[0.49608457321848076,0.24393108848864525],[0.5995375236493589,0.40046247635064114]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":12.98509394416637,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.20641771439294426,0,0.9007318446237568,0,0,0,98.8928504409833],[16.092404072043852,0,0,0,0,0,83.90759592795615],[0,40.04624763506411,0,0,0,0,59.95375236493589]],"volatility_latest":15.885986357650903,"volatility_previous":40.04624763506411,"volatility_mean":27.966116996357506,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-7-755","country":"Ecuador","region":"EL ORO","name":"LAS LAJAS / EL ORO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[8.006042296072508,4.039059032401241,9.462851405622487],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-7-755|EC-M-7-755-2023||3537","EC-M-7-755|EC-M-7-755-2019||1547","EC-M-7-755|EC-M-7-755-2014||267"],"all_keys":["EC-M-7-755|EC-M-7-755-2023||3537","EC-M-7-755|EC-M-7-755-2019||1547","EC-M-7-755|EC-M-7-755-2014||267"],"shares":[[0.5153215364695727,0.4352611135088476],[0.4256546826453617,0.3852640923213493],[0.4503012048192771,0.35567269076305225]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":65.19185886036938,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[10.008877052818464,0,0,0,0,5.281846426986241,84.70927652019529],[0,17.82128514056225,0,35.56726907630522,0,0,46.61144578313253]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":53.38855421686747,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-7-860","country":"Ecuador","region":"EL ORO","name":"MARCABELÍ / EL ORO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[8.837209302325583,2.5434782608695663,1.3839959738298973],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-7-860|EC-M-7-860-2023||3160","EC-M-7-860|EC-M-7-860-2019||1548","EC-M-7-860|EC-M-7-860-2014||268"],"all_keys":["EC-M-7-860|EC-M-7-860-2023||3160","EC-M-7-860|EC-M-7-860-2019||1548","EC-M-7-860|EC-M-7-860-2014||268"],"shares":[[0.4198179979777553,0.3314459049544995],[0.2906521739130435,0.2652173913043478],[0.3384499245093105,0.32460996477101156]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":68.98115671480396,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.9817997977755308,0,0,0,0,0,98.01820020222446],[12.5,0,5.782608695652174,0,0,0,81.71739130434781],[8.354302969300454,33.84499245093105,1.6356316054353297,32.460996477101155,1.8369401107196779,0,21.867136386512332]],"volatility_latest":16.300808897876646,"volatility_previous":68.14292903875187,"volatility_mean":42.22186896831426,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-7-875","country":"Ecuador","region":"EL ORO","name":"BALSAS / EL ORO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[19.045996592844972,18.808664259927795,0.019964064683566818],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-7-875|EC-M-7-875-2023||3674","EC-M-7-875|EC-M-7-875-2019||1549","EC-M-7-875|EC-M-7-875-2014||269"],"all_keys":["EC-M-7-875|EC-M-7-875-2023||3674","EC-M-7-875|EC-M-7-875-2019||1549","EC-M-7-875|EC-M-7-875-2014||269"],"shares":[[0.5877342419080068,0.3972742759795571],[0.3631768953068592,0.17509025270758122],[0.23218207226991414,0.23198243162307847]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":14.639031799231606,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[17.184115523465703,0,0,0,0,0,82.8158844765343],[0,23.198243162307847,0,23.218207226991414,0,0,53.58354961070074]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":46.41645038929926,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-8-560","country":"Ecuador","region":"ESMERALDAS","name":"ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[3.429246034348676,11.37964192499657,22.00842917913975],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-8-560|EC-M-8-560-2023||2695","EC-M-8-560|EC-M-8-560-2019||1550","EC-M-8-560|EC-M-8-560-2014||270"],"all_keys":["EC-M-8-560|EC-M-8-560-2023||2695","EC-M-8-560|EC-M-8-560-2019||1550","EC-M-8-560|EC-M-8-560-2014||270"],"shares":[[0.2956366123546552,0.2613441520111685],[0.44962681441457947,0.33583039516461377],[0.46225579013707263,0.2421714983456751]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":61.63858441988924,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[14.542439262056236,0.4403676601486007,1.3295355526614134,0,0,0,83.68765752513374],[10.123174138009983,0,0,1.1877833234122441,0.1639269197307569,0,88.525115618847],[0,9.375492358594611,0,1.4101150149677013,0,46.22557901370726,42.98881361273042]],"volatility_latest":6.189168336856261,"volatility_previous":55.82340306385732,"volatility_mean":31.00628570035679,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-8-561","country":"Ecuador","region":"ESMERALDAS","name":"RÍO VERDE / ESMERALDAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[7.079204835794851,2.7367506516072986,2.138281054996252],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-8-561|EC-M-8-561-2023||2696","EC-M-8-561|EC-M-8-561-2019||1551","EC-M-8-561|EC-M-8-561-2014||271"],"all_keys":["EC-M-8-561|EC-M-8-561-2023||2696","EC-M-8-561|EC-M-8-561-2019||1551","EC-M-8-561|EC-M-8-561-2014||271"],"shares":[[0.33152614195799834,0.26073409360004984],[0.3121922965537214,0.2848247900376484],[0.32773109243697474,0.30634828188701224]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":73.58811898770638,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[26.073409360004984,0.35520658066928396,1.1528634635757462,0,0,0,72.41852059575],[31.21922965537214,0,0,7.507964089197799,0,13.596872284969592,47.67593397046047],[0,25.534570263749064,0,0,0,30.634828188701224,43.83060154754971]],"volatility_latest":26.25065666953455,"volatility_previous":42.572526167480696,"volatility_mean":34.411591418507626,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-8-565","country":"Ecuador","region":"ESMERALDAS","name":"ELOY ALFARO / ESMERALDAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[20.157226365652086,1.4496927803379442,0.8080929007542181],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-8-565|EC-M-8-565-2023||2697","EC-M-8-565|EC-M-8-565-2019||1552","EC-M-8-565|EC-M-8-565-2014||272"],"all_keys":["EC-M-8-565|EC-M-8-565-2023||2697","EC-M-8-565|EC-M-8-565-2019||1552","EC-M-8-565|EC-M-8-565-2014||272"],"shares":[[0.44099979842773634,0.23942753477121548],[0.3112999231950845,0.29680299539170507],[0.46647910930204717,0.45839818029450496]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":36.94973528215972,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[44.099979842773635,0,4.273331989518242,0,0,0,51.626688167708124],[27.990591397849464,0,0,0.8832565284178188,0,29.680299539170505,41.44585253456221],[0,45.8398180294505,0,3.801029570214294,0,46.647910930204716,3.711241470130492]],"volatility_latest":30.563556067588323,"volatility_previous":65.72520246228119,"volatility_mean":48.144379264934756,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-8-570","country":"Ecuador","region":"ESMERALDAS","name":"MUISNE / ESMERALDAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[2.630709961474956,4.371690559214773,18.410923088096446],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-8-570|EC-M-8-570-2023||3161","EC-M-8-570|EC-M-8-570-2019||1553","EC-M-8-570|EC-M-8-570-2014||273"],"all_keys":["EC-M-8-570|EC-M-8-570-2023||3161","EC-M-8-570|EC-M-8-570-2019||1553","EC-M-8-570|EC-M-8-570-2014||273"],"shares":[[0.26763896532746284,0.24133186571271328],[0.220780059408498,0.17706315381635027],[0.3751906456532791,0.19108141477231463]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":76.34487273270474,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[26.763896532746283,0,0,0,0,0,73.23610346725371],[0,0,0,9.479529897972363,3.222265271858453,17.706315381635026,69.59188944853418],[0,18.527126152952285,5.083884087442806,1.4234875444839858,0.8424722202048079,37.51906456532791,36.60396542958821]],"volatility_latest":30.408110551465832,"volatility_previous":43.42375942408798,"volatility_mean":36.91593498777691,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-8-575","country":"Ecuador","region":"ESMERALDAS","name":"QUININDÉ / ESMERALDAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[10.918840235280136,1.7698664539885627,0.8065974608456585],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-8-575|EC-M-8-575-2023||2698","EC-M-8-575|EC-M-8-575-2019||1554","EC-M-8-575|EC-M-8-575-2014||274"],"all_keys":["EC-M-8-575|EC-M-8-575-2023||2698","EC-M-8-575|EC-M-8-575-2019||1554","EC-M-8-575|EC-M-8-575-2014||274"],"shares":[[0.3411413463252332,0.23195294397243182],[0.30590012047988324,0.28820145593999763],[0.40814554924584945,0.40007957463739285]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":64.18538088275392,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[23.19529439724318,0,1.512090784861268,0,0,0,75.29261481789554],[30.590012047988324,0,0,2.5911659398279343,0,5.1874225789482615,61.63139943323547],[0,40.00795746373929,0,2.8773465475458457,0,40.81455492458495,16.300141064129924]],"volatility_latest":15.173306169521338,"volatility_previous":75.92127041709388,"volatility_mean":45.54728829330761,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-8-580","country":"Ecuador","region":"ESMERALDAS","name":"SAN LORENZO / ESMERALDAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[8.420109252304545,13.639432815665092,10.368736211786949],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-8-580|EC-M-8-580-2023||3432","EC-M-8-580|EC-M-8-580-2019||1555","EC-M-8-580|EC-M-8-580-2014||275"],"all_keys":["EC-M-8-580|EC-M-8-580-2023||3432","EC-M-8-580|EC-M-8-580-2019||1555","EC-M-8-580|EC-M-8-580-2014||275"],"shares":[[0.3432912256742916,0.2590901331512461],[0.41816859710175036,0.28177426894509944],[0.39060825716987074,0.28692089505200125]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":49.09615491369526,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,20.36958006145442,0,0,79.63041993854559],[28.177426894509946,0,0,0.6284734846517426,2.5658338960162053,17.882927335999586,50.74533838882252],[0,25.811534825086667,0,1.0652379451623069,0,39.060825716987075,34.062401512763955]],"volatility_latest":48.62618812652574,"volatility_previous":47.42619766658472,"volatility_mean":48.02619289655523,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-8-785","country":"Ecuador","region":"ESMERALDAS","name":"ATACAMES / ESMERALDAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[15.9205259098755,16.956630317156417,8.59760043809429],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-8-785|EC-M-8-785-2023||3162","EC-M-8-785|EC-M-8-785-2019||1556","EC-M-8-785|EC-M-8-785-2014||276"],"all_keys":["EC-M-8-785|EC-M-8-785-2023||3162","EC-M-8-785|EC-M-8-785-2019||1556","EC-M-8-785|EC-M-8-785-2014||276"],"shares":[[0.3772081236916523,0.2180028645928973],[0.3749271622409057,0.20536085906934154],[0.40140389306516655,0.3154278886842236]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":22.50467657559173,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[37.72081236916523,0,0,0,0,0,62.27918763083477],[20.536085906934154,0,0,0.7991342712061933,3.5544826438025474,5.885290934820611,69.2250062432365],[0,1.841987355005725,0,1.8370090108030068,16.383730771145515,40.14038930651665,39.796883556529096]],"volatility_latest":17.184726462231083,"volatility_previous":49.96420859364156,"volatility_mean":33.57446752793632,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-9-95","country":"Ecuador","region":"GUAYAS","name":"BALAO / GUAYAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[8.408948685857322,5.821549656826264,17.863999191674246],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-9-95|EC-M-9-95-2023||2699","EC-M-9-95|EC-M-9-95-2019||1557","EC-M-9-95|EC-M-9-95-2014||277"],"all_keys":["EC-M-9-95|EC-M-9-95-2023||2699","EC-M-9-95|EC-M-9-95-2019||1557","EC-M-9-95|EC-M-9-95-2014||277"],"shares":[[0.3179755944931164,0.23388610763454318],[0.2718101380964194,0.2135946415281568],[0.5601697484086087,0.3815297564918662]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":57.108829861351516,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0.2346683354192741,6.688047559449312,0,0,93.07728410513143],[0,0,0,21.35946415281568,0,0,78.64053584718431],[0,0,0,2.3744569061331715,0,0,97.62554309386682]],"volatility_latest":14.671416593366379,"volatility_previous":18.98500724668251,"volatility_mean":16.828211920024444,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-9-125","country":"Ecuador","region":"GUAYAS","name":"COLIMES / GUAYAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[0.02744613695622533,6.825635419513528,7.31156791616284],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-9-125|EC-M-9-125-2023||3275","EC-M-9-125|EC-M-9-125-2019||1558","EC-M-9-125|EC-M-9-125-2014||278"],"all_keys":["EC-M-9-125|EC-M-9-125-2023||3275","EC-M-9-125|EC-M-9-125-2019||1558","EC-M-9-125|EC-M-9-125-2014||278"],"shares":[[0.26410045286125977,0.26382599149169755],[0.35699644711669853,0.2887400929215633],[0.3411527609834744,0.26803708182184605]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":86.02342450177962,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,28.874009292156327,71.12599070784367],[0,26.803708182184604,0,3.329302700523982,2.128174123337364,34.115276098347444,33.62353889560661]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":37.50245181223706,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-9-385","country":"Ecuador","region":"GUAYAS","name":"EL EMPALME / GUAYAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[15.580770861515475,31.47607030592819,24.814352369060916],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-9-385|EC-M-9-385-2023||2700","EC-M-9-385|EC-M-9-385-2019||1559","EC-M-9-385|EC-M-9-385-2014||279"],"all_keys":["EC-M-9-385|EC-M-9-385-2023||2700","EC-M-9-385|EC-M-9-385-2019||1559","EC-M-9-385|EC-M-9-385-2014||279"],"shares":[[0.5158190151224535,0.3600113065072988],[0.4489308009031744,0.1341700978438925],[0.4728264441085628,0.22468292041795362]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0.3089099315552505,0,0,0,99.69109006844475],[0,0,0,0,0.6663124806304511,5.4013370522867135,93.93235046708284],[0,1.371273356552978,0,20.481479047556462,1.0076449584894087,22.46829204179536,54.67131059560579]],"volatility_latest":6.067649532917162,"volatility_previous":39.26103987147705,"volatility_mean":22.664344702197106,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-9-390","country":"Ecuador","region":"GUAYAS","name":"GUAYAQUIL / GUAYAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[9.478380165195457,20.800168453416518,20.308622357818315],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-9-390|EC-M-9-390-2023||3276","EC-M-9-390|EC-M-9-390-2019||1560","EC-M-9-390|EC-M-9-390-2014||280"],"all_keys":["EC-M-9-390|EC-M-9-390-2023||3276","EC-M-9-390|EC-M-9-390-2019||1560","EC-M-9-390|EC-M-9-390-2014||280"],"shares":[[0.3986886794861973,0.30390487783424275],[0.5259523544825321,0.31795066994836696],[0.5945754500448456,0.39148922646666245]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":30.21029564537969,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0.5089648753940488,0,0,0,0,99.49103512460596],[0,0,0.29413085620424684,0,0.3796828098736673,2.704825881159354,96.6213604527627],[0,0,0.4048814593529524,0,0,0,99.59511854064705]],"volatility_latest":3.3786395472372868,"volatility_previous":3.084508691033038,"volatility_mean":3.2315741191351623,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-9-395","country":"Ecuador","region":"GUAYAS","name":"YAGUACHI / GUAYAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[0.5156402094130641,2.928718383153818,10.836914262328627],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-9-395|EC-M-9-395-2023||3277","EC-M-9-395|EC-M-9-395-2019||1561","EC-M-9-395|EC-M-9-395-2014||281"],"all_keys":["EC-M-9-395|EC-M-9-395-2023||3277","EC-M-9-395|EC-M-9-395-2019||1561","EC-M-9-395|EC-M-9-395-2014||281"],"shares":[[0.3448475441319618,0.33969114203783113],[0.23753479365847757,0.20824760982693938],[0.3400040924902803,0.23163494986699404]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":88.64154466586577,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,4.475020388834811,0,0,95.52497961116518],[0,0,0,20.824760982693938,0.9288394045746097,19.436040179111703,58.810359433619766],[0,23.163494986699405,0,17.659095559648044,2.283609576427256,34.00040924902803,22.89339062819726]],"volatility_latest":36.71462017754543,"volatility_previous":39.08263422846839,"volatility_mean":37.89862720300691,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-9-400","country":"Ecuador","region":"GUAYAS","name":"DAULE / GUAYAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[21.703012507706294,22.045936264362826,3.80485293907374],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-9-400|EC-M-9-400-2023||2701","EC-M-9-400|EC-M-9-400-2019||1562","EC-M-9-400|EC-M-9-400-2014||282"],"all_keys":["EC-M-9-400|EC-M-9-400-2023||2701","EC-M-9-400|EC-M-9-400-2019||1562","EC-M-9-400|EC-M-9-400-2014||282"],"shares":[[0.428637109330101,0.2116069842530381],[0.3529134697621379,0.1324541071185096],[0.4499764073380328,0.4119278779472954]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,1.6488855915821152,0,0,0,98.35111440841787],[0,0,0.31607521350570794,0,3.8486805409224436,8.990170680615293,86.84507356495655],[0,1.8459470666456954,0.2659536439938802,2.4264695368688964,0.5905314783304975,0,94.87109827416103]],"volatility_latest":12.838851221537732,"volatility_previous":12.298441312719069,"volatility_mean":12.5686462671284,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-9-415","country":"Ecuador","region":"GUAYAS","name":"BALZAR / GUAYAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[27.575551397629983,5.920590838343454,3.489924146238245],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-9-415|EC-M-9-415-2023||2702","EC-M-9-415|EC-M-9-415-2019||1563","EC-M-9-415|EC-M-9-415-2014||283"],"all_keys":["EC-M-9-415|EC-M-9-415-2023||2702","EC-M-9-415|EC-M-9-415-2019||1563","EC-M-9-415|EC-M-9-415-2014||283"],"shares":[[0.48208312071213927,0.20632760673583941],[0.358317819757683,0.2991119113742485],[0.3600286486310512,0.3251294071686688]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":6.64749747647575,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,1.4599988660202983,5.550830640131542,0,0,92.98917049384815],[0,0,0,0,0,29.911191137424847,70.08880886257514],[0,0.31253052055864833,0,1.1036234007227268,0.732493407559332,27.958459484975748,69.89289318618356]],"volatility_latest":29.91119113742485,"volatility_previous":2.1486473288406924,"volatility_mean":16.029919233132773,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-9-420","country":"Ecuador","region":"GUAYAS","name":"MILAGRO / GUAYAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[8.82497344295368,0.48807482604396313,5.4227690455362065],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-9-420|EC-M-9-420-2023||3278","EC-M-9-420|EC-M-9-420-2019||1564","EC-M-9-420|EC-M-9-420-2014||284"],"all_keys":["EC-M-9-420|EC-M-9-420-2023||3278","EC-M-9-420|EC-M-9-420-2019||1564","EC-M-9-420|EC-M-9-420-2014||284"],"shares":[[0.3155512707211912,0.2273015362916544],[0.2979705885021183,0.2930898402416787],[0.3742886436963249,0.32006095324096284]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":70.08158290930491,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0.34836567509457583,29.30898402416787,0,18.02429487702873,52.318355423708816],[0,1.9301859638231227,0,32.006095324096286,5.396431225367083,0,60.667287486713505]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":18.372660552123307,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-9-425","country":"Ecuador","region":"GUAYAS","name":"SAMBORONDÓN / GUAYAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[39.77620996770676,26.06003381568257,25.109753769803397],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-9-425|EC-M-9-425-2023||3712","EC-M-9-425|EC-M-9-425-2019||1565","EC-M-9-425|EC-M-9-425-2014||285"],"all_keys":["EC-M-9-425|EC-M-9-425-2023||3712","EC-M-9-425|EC-M-9-425-2019||1565","EC-M-9-425|EC-M-9-425-2014||285"],"shares":[[0.640002468272415,0.2422403685953473],[0.554028238290771,0.29342790013394526],[0.5883279251765604,0.3372303874785264]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,29.342790013394524,1.9850244834325113,2.4966513690959795,66.17553413407698],[0,0.8589425462874595,0,3.3570337850734875,2.7104409238404275,0,93.07358274479863]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":28.48240759741702,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-9-430","country":"Ecuador","region":"GUAYAS","name":"SALITRE / GUAYAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[15.692458267630908,0.4409740752183815,8.32958531978052],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-9-430|EC-M-9-430-2023||3279","EC-M-9-430|EC-M-9-430-2019||1566","EC-M-9-430|EC-M-9-430-2014||286"],"all_keys":["EC-M-9-430|EC-M-9-430-2023||3279","EC-M-9-430|EC-M-9-430-2019||1566","EC-M-9-430|EC-M-9-430-2014||286"],"shares":[[0.33967701593170574,0.18275243325539667],[0.22930651911355784,0.22489677836137403],[0.42769332253905434,0.3443974693412491]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":48.09637142438945,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,3.9394268935892556,0,0,96.06057310641073],null,[0,0.9684867020479146,0,2.8005157266648677,0,0,96.23099757128722]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-9-435","country":"Ecuador","region":"GUAYAS","name":"NARANJAL / GUAYAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[1.8128023294040325,0.984729199470145,12.747270565344287],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-9-435|EC-M-9-435-2023||2703","EC-M-9-435|EC-M-9-435-2019||1567","EC-M-9-435|EC-M-9-435-2014||287"],"all_keys":["EC-M-9-435|EC-M-9-435-2023||2703","EC-M-9-435|EC-M-9-435-2019||1567","EC-M-9-435|EC-M-9-435-2014||287"],"shares":[[0.333982999107688,0.3158549758136477],[0.247981805003624,0.23813451300892255],[0.45878823910928546,0.3313155334558426]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":86.71086392991054,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,1.7963650025830085,33.3982999107688,0,0,64.8053350866482],[0,0,0,4.638724350803529,0,0,95.36127564919646],[0,33.13155334558426,0,2.2808345043779052,1.8673656901956546,45.878823910928546,16.841422548913634]],"volatility_latest":30.55594056254827,"volatility_previous":80.87774294670845,"volatility_mean":55.71684175462836,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-9-505","country":"Ecuador","region":"GUAYAS","name":"EL TRIUNFO / GUAYAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[27.569572165103867,25.192685994388725,18.72809554595257],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-9-505|EC-M-9-505-2023||2704","EC-M-9-505|EC-M-9-505-2019||1568","EC-M-9-505|EC-M-9-505-2014||288"],"all_keys":["EC-M-9-505|EC-M-9-505-2023||2704","EC-M-9-505|EC-M-9-505-2019||1568","EC-M-9-505|EC-M-9-505-2014||288"],"shares":[[0.4767992281484608,0.20110350649742212],[0.39852945918926763,0.14660259924538038],[0.5224743951818708,0.3351934397223451]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-9-510|EC-M-9-510-2023||2705","EC-M-9-510|EC-M-9-510-2019||1569","EC-M-9-510|EC-M-9-510-2014||289"],"all_keys":["EC-M-9-510|EC-M-9-510-2023||2705","EC-M-9-510|EC-M-9-510-2019||1569","EC-M-9-510|EC-M-9-510-2014||289"],"shares":[[0.3355008457056944,0.22191317421537307],[0.3105393020796616,0.3070536168879489],[0.353534463774499,0.26276150627615064]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":60.86219789922929,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,33.55008457056944,0.7216688592369855,0,0,65.72824657019356],[0,0,0,0,0,20.38146712098069,79.61853287901931],[0,2.8760184981281656,0,18.26469940541731,13.961682448799824,35.3534463774499,29.5441532702048]],"volatility_latest":34.27175342980643,"volatility_previous":50.07437960881451,"volatility_mean":42.17306651931047,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-9-675","country":"Ecuador","region":"GUAYAS","name":"PALESTINA / GUAYAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[11.348294106914796,17.640186915887853,9.4999518258021],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-9-675|EC-M-9-675-2023||2706","EC-M-9-675|EC-M-9-675-2019||1570","EC-M-9-675|EC-M-9-675-2014||290"],"all_keys":["EC-M-9-675|EC-M-9-675-2023||2706","EC-M-9-675|EC-M-9-675-2019||1570","EC-M-9-675|EC-M-9-675-2014||290"],"shares":[[0.3409049443532202,0.22742200328407225],[0.34647585669781933,0.1700739875389408],[0.2883707486270353,0.19337123036901435]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":34.74486139252277,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[14.55026455026455,0,14.440795475278234,1.8974639664294837,0,0,69.11147600802774],[0,0,0,0,0,17.00739875389408,82.9926012461059],[0,17.612486752095577,0,19.337123036901435,1.2236246266499662,0,61.82676558435302]],"volatility_latest":30.88852399197226,"volatility_previous":38.173234415646974,"volatility_mean":34.53087920380962,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-9-715","country":"Ecuador","region":"GUAYAS","name":"PEDRO CARBO / GUAYAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[22.2085812320962,13.181818181818183,12.43251425399869],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-9-715|EC-M-9-715-2023||3280","EC-M-9-715|EC-M-9-715-2019||1571","EC-M-9-715|EC-M-9-715-2014||291"],"all_keys":["EC-M-9-715|EC-M-9-715-2023||3280","EC-M-9-715|EC-M-9-715-2019||1571","EC-M-9-715|EC-M-9-715-2014||291"],"shares":[[0.44225139295495325,0.22016558063399125],[0.33046875,0.19865056818181817],[0.4379131136787931,0.3135879711388062]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":7.385271903984791,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,9.083806818181818,1.7080965909090908,19.865056818181817,69.34303977272727],[0,31.35879711388062,0,3.925526010394066,2.0989959130127653,43.79131136787931,18.825369594833244]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":55.67595098568178,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-9-735","country":"Ecuador","region":"GUAYAS","name":"PLAYAS / GUAYAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[7.157499145883158,3.7103474320241645,3.4641006661732057],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-9-735|EC-M-9-735-2023||2707","EC-M-9-735|EC-M-9-735-2019||1572","EC-M-9-735|EC-M-9-735-2014||292"],"all_keys":["EC-M-9-735|EC-M-9-735-2023||2707","EC-M-9-735|EC-M-9-735-2019||1572","EC-M-9-735|EC-M-9-735-2014||292"],"shares":[[0.25279011502106824,0.18121512356223665],[0.3462990936555891,0.30919561933534745],[0.2151739452257587,0.18053293856402663]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":71.22993108122768,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-9-790|EC-M-9-790-2023||2708","EC-M-9-790|EC-M-9-790-2019||1573","EC-M-9-790|EC-M-9-790-2014||293"],"all_keys":["EC-M-9-790|EC-M-9-790-2023||2708","EC-M-9-790|EC-M-9-790-2019||1573","EC-M-9-790|EC-M-9-790-2014||293"],"shares":[[0.4194797650551862,0.17085135222358486],[0.47504583418211443,0.2937461804848238],[0.34659514230368055,0.3305766651765758]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,10.578971148260505,0,0,0,89.42102885173949],[0,0,15.278060704827867,0,0,1.5006450736742039,83.22129422149793],[0,11.771718074802562,0,34.65951423036805,0,19.58724482193414,33.98152287289525]],"volatility_latest":6.199734630241565,"volatility_previous":64.51783205343055,"volatility_mean":35.35878334183606,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-9-820","country":"Ecuador","region":"GUAYAS","name":"DURÁN / GUAYAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[11.460615581872105,10.364496683447488,10.847082591755253],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-9-820|EC-M-9-820-2023||3328","EC-M-9-820|EC-M-9-820-2019||1574","EC-M-9-820|EC-M-9-820-2014||294"],"all_keys":["EC-M-9-820|EC-M-9-820-2023||3328","EC-M-9-820|EC-M-9-820-2019||1574","EC-M-9-820|EC-M-9-820-2014||294"],"shares":[[0.3607684558321063,0.2461623000133853],[0.342969700898098,0.2393247340636231],[0.49857296326582967,0.39010213734827714]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":44.647866933334825,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,3.283619942654653,0,0,96.71638005734539],[0,0,0.5848079568452059,0,0.9103414500644585,1.5426830585744227,96.96216753451593],[0,4.2241890743502175,0,3.5635833052736223,0.46899802780316513,0,91.743229592573]],"volatility_latest":3.2836199426546386,"volatility_previous":7.787772379623844,"volatility_mean":5.535696161139241,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-9-835","country":"Ecuador","region":"GUAYAS","name":"A.BAQUERIZO MORENO / GUAYAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[24.629783960510288,37.28748315904279,1.5118496322527903],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-9-835|EC-M-9-835-2023||2709","EC-M-9-835|EC-M-9-835-2019||1575","EC-M-9-835|EC-M-9-835-2014||295"],"all_keys":["EC-M-9-835|EC-M-9-835-2023||2709","EC-M-9-835|EC-M-9-835-2019||1575","EC-M-9-835|EC-M-9-835-2014||295"],"shares":[[0.41912943137380604,0.17283159176870314],[0.4999679219862706,0.12709309039584268],[0.34261781530918006,0.3274993189866522]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,12.494390666068337,0.46156804923392525,0,0,87.04404128469774],[0,0,0,7.422852376980817,0,12.427022518765638,80.15012510425355],[0,34.26178153091801,0,15.261509125578861,0,32.74993189866522,17.72677744483792]],"volatility_latest":19.38830684651253,"volatility_previous":62.423347659415626,"volatility_mean":40.90582725296408,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-9-870","country":"Ecuador","region":"GUAYAS","name":"SANTA LUCÍA / GUAYAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[3.534408853557789,4.962830682337305,25.710214622851545],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-9-870|EC-M-9-870-2023||3281","EC-M-9-870|EC-M-9-870-2019||1576","EC-M-9-870|EC-M-9-870-2014||296"],"all_keys":["EC-M-9-870|EC-M-9-870-2023||3281","EC-M-9-870|EC-M-9-870-2019||1576","EC-M-9-870|EC-M-9-870-2014||296"],"shares":[[0.24869456784350402,0.2133504793079261],[0.31081024959508285,0.2611819427717098],[0.5876747706830528,0.3305726244545374]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":69.0974201043949,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,4.512508767827916,0,0,95.48749123217209],[0,0,0,0,0,26.11819427717098,73.88180572282901],[0,2.1150592216582065,0,1.905779677620447,0,58.76747706830528,37.211684032416066]],"volatility_latest":26.118194277170986,"volatility_previous":36.670121690412955,"volatility_mean":31.39415798379197,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-9-890","country":"Ecuador","region":"GUAYAS","name":"CORONEL MARCELINO MARIDUEÑA / GUAYAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[29.537661109140355,8.369823595646192,7.280030124262584],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-9-890|EC-M-9-890-2023||3282","EC-M-9-890|EC-M-9-890-2019||1577","EC-M-9-890|EC-M-9-890-2014||297"],"all_keys":["EC-M-9-890|EC-M-9-890-2023||3282","EC-M-9-890|EC-M-9-890-2019||1577","EC-M-9-890|EC-M-9-890-2014||297"],"shares":[[0.5881518268889677,0.29277521579756416],[0.3417990741899162,0.25810083823345426],[0.33852140077821014,0.26572109953558426]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0.8158921603405463,0,0,99.18410783965945],[0,0,0,6.205429751032153,0,0,93.79457024896784],[0,11.811221287812225,14.798543993975148,1.8827664114472198,26.572109953558428,0,44.93535835320697]],"volatility_latest":5.389537590691605,"volatility_previous":53.18187523534581,"volatility_mean":29.285706413018705,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-9-920","country":"Ecuador","region":"GUAYAS","name":"LOMAS DE SARGENTILLO / GUAYAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[0.3868160206301887,5.214136490250695,10.746162084969654],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-9-920|EC-M-9-920-2023||3283","EC-M-9-920|EC-M-9-920-2019||1578","EC-M-9-920|EC-M-9-920-2014||298"],"all_keys":["EC-M-9-920|EC-M-9-920-2023||3283","EC-M-9-920|EC-M-9-920-2019||1578","EC-M-9-920|EC-M-9-920-2014||298"],"shares":[[0.2889838020791361,0.2851156418728342],[0.26784470752089135,0.2157033426183844],[0.3316672616922528,0.22420564084255623]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":85.64526616024857,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,28.89838020791361,0,0,71.1016197920864],[0,0,0,9.618732590529248,0,0,90.38126740947075],[0,13.221468523146495,0,15.625371890991312,0,0,71.1531595858622]],"volatility_latest":19.27964761738436,"volatility_previous":19.228107823608557,"volatility_mean":19.253877720496458,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-9-940","country":"Ecuador","region":"GUAYAS","name":"NOBOL / PIEDRAHITA / GUAYAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[27.24688247076307,0.6852925672113841,20.808166737558487],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-9-940|EC-M-9-940-2023||3284","EC-M-9-940|EC-M-9-940-2019||1579","EC-M-9-940|EC-M-9-940-2014||299"],"all_keys":["EC-M-9-940|EC-M-9-940-2023||3284","EC-M-9-940|EC-M-9-940-2019||1579","EC-M-9-940|EC-M-9-940-2014||299"],"shares":[[0.600503973638302,0.3280351489306713],[0.21439867459899087,0.20754574892687702],[0.5071033602722246,0.2990216928966397]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":6.827330368114493,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,6.112295664534471,0,0,93.88770433546553],[0,0,0,20.754574892687703,7.854507116499736,0,71.39091799081258],[0,9.374734155678434,0,5.435984687367077,0,50.71033602722246,34.47894512973203]],"volatility_latest":22.496786344652957,"volatility_previous":60.0850701829009,"volatility_mean":41.29092826377693,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-9-985","country":"Ecuador","region":"GUAYAS","name":"GRAL. A. 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Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-9-985|EC-M-9-985-2023||2710","EC-M-9-985|EC-M-9-985-2019||1580","EC-M-9-985|EC-M-9-985-2014||300"],"all_keys":["EC-M-9-985|EC-M-9-985-2023||2710","EC-M-9-985|EC-M-9-985-2019||1580","EC-M-9-985|EC-M-9-985-2014||300"],"shares":[[0.53719646799117,0.24514348785871964],[0.42013075120266435,0.3066485753052917],[0.2567151650811416,0.22817571348628987]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[24.514348785871963,0,6.236203090507726,8.907284768211921,0,0,60.342163355408395],[0,0,0,5.40273837424448,0,0,94.59726162575551],[0,16.787912702853944,0,25.67151650811416,19.739787353105765,0,37.800783435926135]],"volatility_latest":34.25509827034712,"volatility_previous":56.79647818982938,"volatility_mean":45.52578823008825,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-9-986","country":"Ecuador","region":"GUAYAS","name":"ISIDRO AYORA / GUAYAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[11.387419826713177,45.13122393917095,0.1680415520928804],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-9-986|EC-M-9-986-2023||2711","EC-M-9-986|EC-M-9-986-2019||1581","EC-M-9-986|EC-M-9-986-2014||301"],"all_keys":["EC-M-9-986|EC-M-9-986-2023||2711","EC-M-9-986|EC-M-9-986-2019||1581","EC-M-9-986|EC-M-9-986-2014||301"],"shares":[[0.3154045234612355,0.20153032519410374],[0.6822418444935,0.23092960510179053],[0.21112129544760158,0.2094408799266728]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[20.153032519410374,0,1.1815010689771577,1.8791493192303363,0,0,76.78631709238213],null,[0,19.935838680109992,3.84967919340055,2.1387106630003054,20.944087992667278,15.811182401466544,37.32050106935533]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-10-30","country":"Ecuador","region":"IMBABURA","name":"IBARRA / IMBABURA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[13.87649858225413,0.36192790328198754,30.469872465721835],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-10-30|EC-M-10-30-2023||2712","EC-M-10-30|EC-M-10-30-2019||1582","EC-M-10-30|EC-M-10-30-2014||302"],"all_keys":["EC-M-10-30|EC-M-10-30-2023||2712","EC-M-10-30|EC-M-10-30-2019||1582","EC-M-10-30|EC-M-10-30-2014||302"],"shares":[[0.3751471636791749,0.23638217785663357],[0.3327952558558405,0.3291759768230207],[0.6120315022083473,0.30733277755112903]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":42.59267616545371,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.49899679970816,37.51471636791749,7.320874856981777,0,0,0,53.66541197539258],[0,0,0,4.677026074101764,0,0,95.32297392589824],[0,61.203150220834736,0,8.063572024052363,0,30.7332777551129,0]],"volatility_latest":46.33458802460742,"volatility_previous":95.32297392589824,"volatility_mean":70.82878097525283,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-10-35","country":"Ecuador","region":"IMBABURA","name":"OTAVALO / IMBABURA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[3.77572563156156,20.002770040473372,13.75446573562845],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-10-35|EC-M-10-35-2023||2713","EC-M-10-35|EC-M-10-35-2019||1583","EC-M-10-35|EC-M-10-35-2014||303"],"all_keys":["EC-M-10-35|EC-M-10-35-2023||2713","EC-M-10-35|EC-M-10-35-2019||1583","EC-M-10-35|EC-M-10-35-2014||303"],"shares":[[0.21357480360194747,0.17581754728633187],[0.3676459272710485,0.16761822686631475],[0.47633972068853525,0.33879506333225073]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":51.79143517679103,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,17.040313662410778,5.588188829367074,0,0,0,77.37149750822215],[0,0,10.270694510703128,4.906049460611563,2.9131592311598773,0,81.91009679752543],[0,0,9.93179603767457,2.947385514777525,0,33.87950633322507,53.24131211432283]],"volatility_latest":17.040313662410774,"volatility_previous":33.87950633322507,"volatility_mean":25.459909997817924,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-10-40","country":"Ecuador","region":"IMBABURA","name":"COTACACHI / IMBABURA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[14.077287066246058,3.5338319214546488,13.187746951608105],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-10-40|EC-M-10-40-2023||2714","EC-M-10-40|EC-M-10-40-2019||1584","EC-M-10-40|EC-M-10-40-2014||304"],"all_keys":["EC-M-10-40|EC-M-10-40-2023||2714","EC-M-10-40|EC-M-10-40-2019||1584","EC-M-10-40|EC-M-10-40-2014||304"],"shares":[[0.34641167192429023,0.20563880126182965],[0.37266508347215827,0.33732676425761177],[0.5044398181586438,0.37256234864256277]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":45.873517443275816,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,8.537066246056783,0,0,0,91.4629337539432],[0,0,0,8.28695991209726,0,0,91.71304008790274],[0,0,8.26783362365637,4.031949696222968,0,37.25623486425628,50.44398181586438]],"volatility_latest":8.537066246056789,"volatility_previous":45.52406848791265,"volatility_mean":27.03056736698472,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-10-45","country":"Ecuador","region":"IMBABURA","name":"ANTONIO ANTE / IMBABURA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[2.258172114743161,3.7258862037746354,11.861264532076781],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-10-45|EC-M-10-45-2023||2715","EC-M-10-45|EC-M-10-45-2019||1585","EC-M-10-45|EC-M-10-45-2014||305"],"all_keys":["EC-M-10-45|EC-M-10-45-2023||2715","EC-M-10-45|EC-M-10-45-2019||1585","EC-M-10-45|EC-M-10-45-2014||305"],"shares":[[0.24402935290193462,0.221447631754503],[0.3021798175360401,0.26492095549829375],[0.49801089181568886,0.37939824649492104]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":81.70602208407017,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,9.639759839893262,0,0,0,90.36024016010674],[2.635977435754579,0,0,2.548924019778536,0,0,94.81509854446689],[0,49.801089181568884,0,5.051948553551427,0,37.9398246494921,7.207137615387587]],"volatility_latest":9.639759839893264,"volatility_previous":90.24393836483388,"volatility_mean":49.94184910236357,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-10-50","country":"Ecuador","region":"IMBABURA","name":"PIMAMPIRO / IMBABURA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[19.729990356798453,15.970370370370368,3.9355992844364955],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-10-50|EC-M-10-50-2023||3433","EC-M-10-50|EC-M-10-50-2019||1586","EC-M-10-50|EC-M-10-50-2014||306"],"all_keys":["EC-M-10-50|EC-M-10-50-2023||3433","EC-M-10-50|EC-M-10-50-2019||1586","EC-M-10-50|EC-M-10-50-2014||306"],"shares":[[0.42189006750241076,0.22459016393442624],[0.42577777777777776,0.2660740740740741],[0.3235820267284016,0.2842260338840366]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":14.886673731830836,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,22.459016393442624,0,0,77.54098360655738],[3.022222222222222,0,0,10.449382716049383,0,0,86.5283950617284],[0,18.03640955487741,0,0,21.182784383878776,28.42260338840366,32.35820267284016]],"volatility_latest":12.009633677393246,"volatility_previous":67.64179732715985,"volatility_mean":39.82571550227655,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-10-55","country":"Ecuador","region":"IMBABURA","name":"URCUQUÍ / IMBABURA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[3.98498165372472,12.097069597069599,14.169880352022147],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-10-55|EC-M-10-55-2023||2716","EC-M-10-55|EC-M-10-55-2019||1587","EC-M-10-55|EC-M-10-55-2014||307"],"all_keys":["EC-M-10-55|EC-M-10-55-2023||2716","EC-M-10-55|EC-M-10-55-2019||1587","EC-M-10-55|EC-M-10-55-2014||307"],"shares":[[0.27058622749381345,0.23073641095656627],[0.30531135531135534,0.18434065934065935],[0.4624740433105903,0.3207752397903688]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":62.81451046721037,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,17.339363426913557,5.538015189009301,1.7663623176038912,0,0,75.35625906647324],[2.4450549450549453,0,0,3.8461538461538463,0,0,93.70879120879123],[0,17.630772273311578,0,4.044299416592505,0,46.24740433105903,32.07752397903688]],"volatility_latest":22.877378615922872,"volatility_previous":64.07632217480928,"volatility_mean":43.47685039536607,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-11-290","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOJA","name":"CATAMAYO / LOJA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[14.79191658207991,0.8496135938175016,3.7120239623448867],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-11-290|EC-M-11-290-2023||3538","EC-M-11-290|EC-M-11-290-2019||1588","EC-M-11-290|EC-M-11-290-2014||308"],"all_keys":["EC-M-11-290|EC-M-11-290-2023||3538","EC-M-11-290|EC-M-11-290-2019||1588","EC-M-11-290|EC-M-11-290-2014||308"],"shares":[[0.4308849312540371,0.282965765433238],[0.3133010128162051,0.30480487687803004],[0.3580979888746256,0.32097774925117667]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":52.493817881861574,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[15.677050832813325,0,0,0,0,0,84.32294916718668],[0,0,0,0,0,32.09242618741977,67.90757381258022]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":32.092426187419775,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-11-295","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOJA","name":"ZAPOTILLO / LOJA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[11.091510474090406,5.91805766312595,11.625418060200666],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-11-295|EC-M-11-295-2023||3112","EC-M-11-295|EC-M-11-295-2019||1589","EC-M-11-295|EC-M-11-295-2014||309"],"all_keys":["EC-M-11-295|EC-M-11-295-2023||3112","EC-M-11-295|EC-M-11-295-2019||1589","EC-M-11-295|EC-M-11-295-2014||309"],"shares":[[0.360529217199559,0.24961411245865492],[0.39243609198085677,0.3332555153495973],[0.46127090301003343,0.3450167224080268]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":52.035673052939536,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,33.32555153495973,66.67444846504027],[0,0,0,0,0,34.50167224080268,65.49832775919732]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":1.1761207058429477,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-11-300","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOJA","name":"LOJA / LOJA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[14.044612297887408,13.62543857225737,3.3264234795836174],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-11-300|EC-M-11-300-2023||3241","EC-M-11-300|EC-M-11-300-2019||1590","EC-M-11-300|EC-M-11-300-2014||310"],"all_keys":["EC-M-11-300|EC-M-11-300-2023||3241","EC-M-11-300|EC-M-11-300-2019||1590","EC-M-11-300|EC-M-11-300-2014||310"],"shares":[[0.2924514547941211,0.15200533181524706],[0.3192529767660303,0.18299859104345664],[0.30262176753064696,0.2693575327348108]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":35.76479350815991,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-11-305|EC-M-11-305-2023||3539","EC-M-11-305|EC-M-11-305-2019||1591","EC-M-11-305|EC-M-11-305-2014||311"],"all_keys":["EC-M-11-305|EC-M-11-305-2023||3539","EC-M-11-305|EC-M-11-305-2019||1591","EC-M-11-305|EC-M-11-305-2014||311"],"shares":[[0.4683459537423376,0.3930871065780662],[0.5562227893709654,0.4437772106290347],[0.3939341818598785,0.3872835683981195]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":60.22297836634103,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,0,0,0,0,21.878224974200208,78.12177502579979]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-11-310","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOJA","name":"PALTAS / LOJA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[4.166666666666664,2.7600849256900197,1.096381225367253],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-11-310|EC-M-11-310-2023||2717","EC-M-11-310|EC-M-11-310-2019||1592","EC-M-11-310|EC-M-11-310-2014||312"],"all_keys":["EC-M-11-310|EC-M-11-310-2023||2717","EC-M-11-310|EC-M-11-310-2019||1592","EC-M-11-310|EC-M-11-310-2014||312"],"shares":[[0.23746612466124659,0.19579945799457996],[0.27721160651096954,0.24961075725406937],[0.31888212110354713,0.3079183088498746]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":82.81168199878135,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,11.246612466124661,0,0,0,88.75338753387534],[4.72753007784855,0,0,0,24.961075725406936,5.350318471337579,64.96107572540693],[0,28.047294876388392,0,0,31.88821211035471,30.79183088498746,9.272662128269438]],"volatility_latest":35.03892427459307,"volatility_previous":60.415943674986046,"volatility_mean":47.72743397478956,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-11-311","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOJA","name":"OLMEDO / LOJA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[4.143862392494135,12.671879212725806,6.224066390041493],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-11-311|EC-M-11-311-2023||3540","EC-M-11-311|EC-M-11-311-2019||1593","EC-M-11-311|EC-M-11-311-2014||313"],"all_keys":["EC-M-11-311|EC-M-11-311-2023||3540","EC-M-11-311|EC-M-11-311-2019||1593","EC-M-11-311|EC-M-11-311-2014||313"],"shares":[[0.4631222309095648,0.4216836069846234],[0.41709355621461314,0.2903747640873551],[0.4211618257261411,0.35892116182572614]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":65.44856080840815,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[8.708546778107307,0,0,0,0,7.279590186033971,84.01186303585874],[0,42.11618257261411,0,0,0,35.892116182572614,21.991701244813278]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":70.72870856915276,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-11-315","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOJA","name":"CELICA / LOJA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[14.546814878153057,4.892588010347541,2.189220330303421],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-11-315|EC-M-11-315-2023||3242","EC-M-11-315|EC-M-11-315-2019||1594","EC-M-11-315|EC-M-11-315-2014||314"],"all_keys":["EC-M-11-315|EC-M-11-315-2023||3242","EC-M-11-315|EC-M-11-315-2019||1594","EC-M-11-315|EC-M-11-315-2014||314"],"shares":[[0.537943565626336,0.39247541684480547],[0.34855471825441453,0.29962883815093916],[0.30917936243758803,0.2872871591345538]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":47.92606318486781,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-11-320|EC-M-11-320-2023||3329","EC-M-11-320|EC-M-11-320-2019||1595","EC-M-11-320|EC-M-11-320-2014||315"],"all_keys":["EC-M-11-320|EC-M-11-320-2023||3329","EC-M-11-320|EC-M-11-320-2019||1595","EC-M-11-320|EC-M-11-320-2014||315"],"shares":[[0.27002217841301135,0.2304706752094628],[0.1847779081979366,0.17915611293012912],[0.3321435165240938,0.3206351160071389]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":86.71585972291655,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[2.2610737011181814,0,0,0,17.489343300179158,18.47779081979366,61.771792178908996],[0,7.409686749953844,0,0,0,32.06351160071389,60.52680164933226]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":20.995407530874072,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-11-325","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOJA","name":"MACARÁ / LOJA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[16.046016190881975,8.451897018970186,0.22667829119441762],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-11-325|EC-M-11-325-2023||3243","EC-M-11-325|EC-M-11-325-2019||1596","EC-M-11-325|EC-M-11-325-2014||316"],"all_keys":["EC-M-11-325|EC-M-11-325-2023||3243","EC-M-11-325|EC-M-11-325-2019||1596","EC-M-11-325|EC-M-11-325-2014||316"],"shares":[[0.43587558585428204,0.2754154239454623],[0.3817750677506775,0.2972560975609756],[0.3279860505666957,0.32571926765475157]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":39.0707667533016,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,9.688346883468835,0,90.31165311653116],[0,0,0,0,0,30.27898866608544,69.72101133391456]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":30.27898866608544,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-11-330","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOJA","name":"PUYANGO / LOJA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[5.852665131928461,9.459213401310997,13.427596294490492],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-11-330|EC-M-11-330-2023||3330","EC-M-11-330|EC-M-11-330-2019||1597","EC-M-11-330|EC-M-11-330-2014||317"],"all_keys":["EC-M-11-330|EC-M-11-330-2023||3330","EC-M-11-330|EC-M-11-330-2019||1597","EC-M-11-330|EC-M-11-330-2014||317"],"shares":[[0.4629006552151585,0.40437400389587386],[0.42698470502549163,0.3323925710123817],[0.44739151633349583,0.31311555338859093]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":61.539386355002875,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,42.69847050254916,57.301529497450844],[0,0,0,0,0,31.311555338859094,68.6884446611409]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":11.386915163690066,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-11-335","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOJA","name":"GONZANAMÁ / LOJA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[0.6295284475590961,9.226872512362803,19.154999380498076],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-11-335|EC-M-11-335-2023||3244","EC-M-11-335|EC-M-11-335-2019||1598","EC-M-11-335|EC-M-11-335-2014||318"],"all_keys":["EC-M-11-335|EC-M-11-335-2023||3244","EC-M-11-335|EC-M-11-335-2019||1598","EC-M-11-335|EC-M-11-335-2014||318"],"shares":[[0.33994536168191,0.333650077206319],[0.35532505126040287,0.2630563261367748],[0.5793581960104076,0.3878082022054269]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":74.69360619852947,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[14.726812206006514,0,0,0,0,35.532505126040284,49.74068266795321],[0,2.2425969520505515,0,0,0,38.78082022054269,58.976582827406766]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":14.726812206006512,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-11-340","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOJA","name":"ESPÍNDOLA / LOJA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[0.1493726349332789,14.095689832955252,6.202463845741832],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-11-340|EC-M-11-340-2023||2568","EC-M-11-340|EC-M-11-340-2019||1599","EC-M-11-340|EC-M-11-340-2014||319"],"all_keys":["EC-M-11-340|EC-M-11-340-2023||2568","EC-M-11-340|EC-M-11-340-2019||1599","EC-M-11-340|EC-M-11-340-2014||319"],"shares":[[0.3254331806413065,0.32393945429197374],[0.41132192204578266,0.27036502371623017],[0.4897696839850027,0.42774504552758436]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":75.30711542289636,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,19.746339451433286,80.25366054856673],[0,8.248527048741296,0,0,0,42.77450455275844,48.97696839850027]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":31.276692150066452,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-11-345","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOJA","name":"SOZORANGA / LOJA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[15.022908126356398,30.591194968553463,22.362971985383673],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-11-345|EC-M-11-345-2023||3245","EC-M-11-345|EC-M-11-345-2019||1600","EC-M-11-345|EC-M-11-345-2014||320"],"all_keys":["EC-M-11-345|EC-M-11-345-2023||3245","EC-M-11-345|EC-M-11-345-2019||1600","EC-M-11-345|EC-M-11-345-2014||320"],"shares":[[0.382927417410176,0.23269833614661203],[0.5612578616352202,0.25534591194968553],[0.584652862362972,0.36102314250913525]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,25.534591194968552,0,74.46540880503144],[0,0,0,0,0,36.10231425091352,63.89768574908648]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":36.10231425091352,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-11-730","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOJA","name":"PINDAL / LOJA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[2.032225286688927,9.071406680968433,10.145719489981783],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-11-730|EC-M-11-730-2023||3246","EC-M-11-730|EC-M-11-730-2019||1601","EC-M-11-730|EC-M-11-730-2014||321"],"all_keys":["EC-M-11-730|EC-M-11-730-2023||3246","EC-M-11-730|EC-M-11-730-2019||1601","EC-M-11-730|EC-M-11-730-2014||321"],"shares":[[0.3701553200754827,0.3498330672085934],[0.3414036163040147,0.25068954949433037],[0.4058287795992714,0.3043715846994536]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":75.22335437348968,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[34.14036163040147,0,0,0,0,1.6242721422004291,64.2353662273981],[0,8.77959927140255,0,0,1.384335154826958,30.437158469945356,59.39890710382514]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":38.97682075397444,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-11-740","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOJA","name":"QUILANGA / LOJA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[7.161271841879113,5.588942307692307,1.9132653061224474],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-11-740|EC-M-11-740-2023||3247","EC-M-11-740|EC-M-11-740-2019||1602","EC-M-11-740|EC-M-11-740-2014||322"],"all_keys":["EC-M-11-740|EC-M-11-740-2023||3247","EC-M-11-740|EC-M-11-740-2019||1602","EC-M-11-740|EC-M-11-740-2014||322"],"shares":[[0.42480664566026927,0.35319392724147813],[0.4035456730769231,0.34765625],[0.3718112244897959,0.35267857142857145]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":69.17613835976297,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[5.318509615384615,0,0,0,7.572115384615385,8.233173076923077,78.87620192307692],[0,35.267857142857146,0,0,0,23.40561224489796,41.3265306122449]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":50.440296310832025,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-11-815","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOJA","name":"CHAGUARPAMBA / LOJA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[0.8110014104372354,1.7416545718432523,0.3423875827436689],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-11-815|EC-M-11-815-2023||3248","EC-M-11-815|EC-M-11-815-2019||1603","EC-M-11-815|EC-M-11-815-2014||323"],"all_keys":["EC-M-11-815|EC-M-11-815-2023||3248","EC-M-11-815|EC-M-11-815-2019||1603","EC-M-11-815|EC-M-11-815-2014||323"],"shares":[[0.2611071932299013,0.25299717912552894],[0.31331640058055155,0.295899854862119],[0.3467244921250856,0.3433006162976489]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":94.78332011955159,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[29.5899854862119,0,0,0,0,22.115384615384617,48.294629898403485],[0,30.997489157726548,0,0,0,34.67244921250856,34.33006162976489]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":43.554553754850495,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-12-515","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOS RÍOS","name":"BABAHOYO / LOS RÍOS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[18.963848322882033,1.3802046131361188,27.844964427238573],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-12-515|EC-M-12-515-2023||3787","EC-M-12-515|EC-M-12-515-2019||1604","EC-M-12-515|EC-M-12-515-2014||324"],"all_keys":["EC-M-12-515|EC-M-12-515-2023||3787","EC-M-12-515|EC-M-12-515-2019||1604","EC-M-12-515|EC-M-12-515-2014||324"],"shares":[[0.413113926181558,0.22347544295273766],[0.28371116800914276,0.2699091218777816],[0.6135073714983955,0.3350577272260098]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":27.11566589803044,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[28.371116800914276,0,0,0,0,0,71.62888319908575],[0,1.82488837119006,0,0,0.9295739262507565,33.50577272260098,63.7397649799582]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":36.26023502004181,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-12-516","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOS RÍOS","name":"VALENCIA / LOS RÍOS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[34.6633046573717,21.83517417162277,37.294979809561795],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-12-516|EC-M-12-516-2023||3163","EC-M-12-516|EC-M-12-516-2019||1605","EC-M-12-516|EC-M-12-516-2014||325"],"all_keys":["EC-M-12-516|EC-M-12-516-2023||3163","EC-M-12-516|EC-M-12-516-2019||1605","EC-M-12-516|EC-M-12-516-2014||325"],"shares":[[0.5671165826164343,0.22048353604271728],[0.4788870008496177,0.26053525913339],[0.6417069644548582,0.26875716635924024]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[19.875407890833582,0,0,0,0,0,80.12459210916643],[47.88870008496177,0,0,0,0,26.053525913338998,26.057774001699233],[0,0,0,0,0,64.17069644548582,35.82930355451418]],"volatility_latest":54.06681810746719,"volatility_previous":47.88870008496177,"volatility_mean":50.977759096214484,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-12-520","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOS RÍOS","name":"BABA / LOS RÍOS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[17.19170815310536,20.745606403340876,5.073243787148407],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-12-520|EC-M-12-520-2023||3471","EC-M-12-520|EC-M-12-520-2019||1606","EC-M-12-520|EC-M-12-520-2014||326"],"all_keys":["EC-M-12-520|EC-M-12-520-2023||3471","EC-M-12-520|EC-M-12-520-2019||1606","EC-M-12-520|EC-M-12-520-2014||326"],"shares":[[0.4124296090753285,0.24051252754427488],[0.3872020184444058,0.17974595441099706],[0.42013385126597086,0.3694014133944868]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":14.769844042098402,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,24.051252754427487,0,0,0,0,75.9487472455725],[11.001392030624674,0,0,0,0,38.72020184444058,50.278406124934754],[0,0,0,6.252632564234568,0,36.94014133944868,56.80722609631675]],"volatility_latest":49.721593875065246,"volatility_previous":12.781452535616568,"volatility_mean":31.251523205340906,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-12-525","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOS RÍOS","name":"VINCES / LOS RÍOS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[24.734156985678283,23.42438404646309,12.733585213928315],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-12-525|EC-M-12-525-2023||3837","EC-M-12-525|EC-M-12-525-2019||1607","EC-M-12-525|EC-M-12-525-2014||327"],"all_keys":["EC-M-12-525|EC-M-12-525-2023||3837","EC-M-12-525|EC-M-12-525-2019||1607","EC-M-12-525|EC-M-12-525-2014||327"],"shares":[[0.58098223615465,0.33364066629786715],[0.37093334543309586,0.136689504968465],[0.2880629020729092,0.16072704993362608]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[13.668950496846499,0,0,11.384364081854894,0,8.280774989790824,66.66591043150778],[0,0,0,14.242315939957113,0,28.80629020729092,56.95139385275196]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":23.38346707560232,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-12-530","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOS RÍOS","name":"PUEBLO VIEJO / LOS RÍOS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[2.932611459743242,12.407857173292431,5.559412814917678],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-12-530|EC-M-12-530-2023||3472","EC-M-12-530|EC-M-12-530-2019||1608","EC-M-12-530|EC-M-12-530-2014||328"],"all_keys":["EC-M-12-530|EC-M-12-530-2023||3472","EC-M-12-530|EC-M-12-530-2019||1608","EC-M-12-530|EC-M-12-530-2014||328"],"shares":[[0.3580657069029162,0.3287395923054838],[0.3032510971920406,0.17917252545911627],[0.39158897044237256,0.33599484229319576]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":69.81067345337279,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0.9310528690373652,0,0,0,0,99.06894713096263],[15.658954365332992,0,0,30.325109719204058,0,17.917252545911627,36.098683369551324],[0,33.59948422931958,0,10.176552271374728,0,39.15889704423726,17.06506645506844]],"volatility_latest":63.90131663044867,"volatility_previous":54.841128727645206,"volatility_mean":59.37122267904694,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-12-535","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOS RÍOS","name":"URDANETA / LOS RÍOS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[0.3752715781157434,2.7255639097744364,9.079488350845136],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-12-535|EC-M-12-535-2023||3541","EC-M-12-535|EC-M-12-535-2019||1609","EC-M-12-535|EC-M-12-535-2014||329"],"all_keys":["EC-M-12-535|EC-M-12-535-2023||3541","EC-M-12-535|EC-M-12-535-2019||1609","EC-M-12-535|EC-M-12-535-2014||329"],"shares":[[0.3713213509776812,0.3675686351965238],[0.26686507936507936,0.239609440267335],[0.375,0.28420511649154867]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":90.24609522556855,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[6.004594820384294,0,0,18.02422723475355,0,23.9609440267335,52.010233918128655],[0.9250799451804477,6.081544084056647,0,9.878940155322065,6.458428506167199,28.420511649154864,48.23549566011877]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":16.99954021264521,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-12-540","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOS RÍOS","name":"QUEVEDO / LOS RÍOS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[23.565699091513405,0.5800777034319005,12.757585364489117],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-12-540|EC-M-12-540-2023||3473","EC-M-12-540|EC-M-12-540-2019||1610","EC-M-12-540|EC-M-12-540-2014||330"],"all_keys":["EC-M-12-540|EC-M-12-540-2023||3473","EC-M-12-540|EC-M-12-540-2019||1610","EC-M-12-540|EC-M-12-540-2014||330"],"shares":[[0.4186749390649236,0.1830179481497895],[0.20023023239081947,0.19442945535650047],[0.4614531078082166,0.3338772541633254]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":22.05399348806738,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,4.039884777309993,0,0,0,0,95.96011522268999],[0,0,0,0,0,10.888373264263617,89.11162673573641],[0,46.14531078082166,0,1.986088059228316,0,33.38772541633254,18.480875743617478]],"volatility_latest":10.888373264263597,"volatility_previous":70.63075099211892,"volatility_mean":40.759562128191256,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-12-545","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOS RÍOS","name":"VENTANAS / LOS RÍOS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[13.784769721842224,12.464757030824266,15.610288054898],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-12-545|EC-M-12-545-2023||2718","EC-M-12-545|EC-M-12-545-2019||1611","EC-M-12-545|EC-M-12-545-2014||331"],"all_keys":["EC-M-12-545|EC-M-12-545-2023||2718","EC-M-12-545|EC-M-12-545-2019||1611","EC-M-12-545|EC-M-12-545-2014||331"],"shares":[[0.41621067031463743,0.2783629730962152],[0.37588551662046576,0.2512379463122231],[0.4056440673457989,0.24954118679681891]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":32.14341126078792,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,1.9881440948472413,0,0,0,98.01185590515276],[37.58855166204658,0,0,0,0,14.111403321723884,48.30004501622954],[0,7.700082453387238,0,24.95411867968189,20.113306912785596,40.56440673457989,6.668085219565391]],"volatility_latest":51.69995498377046,"volatility_previous":79.22051145871073,"volatility_mean":65.4602332212406,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-12-546","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOS RÍOS","name":"QUINSALOMA / LOS RÍOS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[12.671858475146621,1.5750597436454505,3.4817100044072298],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-12-546|EC-M-12-546-2023||2719","EC-M-12-546|EC-M-12-546-2019||1612","EC-M-12-546|EC-M-12-546-2014||332"],"all_keys":["EC-M-12-546|EC-M-12-546-2023||2719","EC-M-12-546|EC-M-12-546-2019||1612","EC-M-12-546|EC-M-12-546-2014||332"],"shares":[[0.46255167772329586,0.3358330929718296],[0.2988268520530089,0.2830762546165544],[0.30879976494784783,0.27398266490377554]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":57.880979956888346,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,33.583309297182964,1.2883376598404,0,0,0,65.12835304297664],[28.30762546165544,0,0,0,0,0,71.69237453834455],[1.4837667107389452,10.724254443954752,0,0,0,30.87997649478478,56.91200235052152]],"volatility_latest":34.87164695702336,"volatility_previous":41.60423093873953,"volatility_mean":38.237938947881446,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-12-710","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOS RÍOS","name":"MONTALVO / LOS RÍOS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[15.892584681110772,13.197610943420461,22.304491925816233],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-12-710|EC-M-12-710-2023||2720","EC-M-12-710|EC-M-12-710-2019||1613","EC-M-12-710|EC-M-12-710-2014||333"],"all_keys":["EC-M-12-710|EC-M-12-710-2023||2720","EC-M-12-710|EC-M-12-710-2019||1613","EC-M-12-710|EC-M-12-710-2014||333"],"shares":[[0.37754043332316145,0.2186145865120537],[0.3206602016569263,0.18868409222272173],[0.49806078555814115,0.2750158662999789]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":21.373583578628885,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[21.86145865120537,0,5.126640219713153,0,0,0,73.01190112908148],[18.868409222272174,0,0,0,0,7.244236079892107,73.88735469783573],[0,18.672872152880615,0,4.019462661307383,0,0,77.307665185812]],"volatility_latest":8.119689648646355,"volatility_previous":26.11264530216427,"volatility_mean":17.116167475405312,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-12-750","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOS RÍOS","name":"PALENQUE / LOS RÍOS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[15.870765557379496,1.7513424204874006,22.180697000840887],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-12-750|EC-M-12-750-2023||2721","EC-M-12-750|EC-M-12-750-2019||1614","EC-M-12-750|EC-M-12-750-2014||334"],"all_keys":["EC-M-12-750|EC-M-12-750-2023||2721","EC-M-12-750|EC-M-12-750-2019||1614","EC-M-12-750|EC-M-12-750-2014||334"],"shares":[[0.3580808834502313,0.19937322787643633],[0.1775299463031805,0.1600165220983065],[0.447631505185462,0.22582453517705317]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":38.67034119670997,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,19.937322787643634,2.9100134308312193,0,0,0,77.15266378152515],[10.103263114415531,0,0,0,0,14.894671623296158,75.00206526228831],[0,15.808651779874802,0,4.503410258805943,44.763150518546205,22.582453517705318,12.342333925067738]],"volatility_latest":24.99793473771169,"volatility_previous":72.7629944516361,"volatility_mean":48.880464594673896,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-12-945","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOS RÍOS","name":"BUENA FE / LOS RÍOS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[9.497206703910614,9.273534817235038,15.530538792520233],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-12-945|EC-M-12-945-2023||3474","EC-M-12-945|EC-M-12-945-2019||1615","EC-M-12-945|EC-M-12-945-2014||335"],"all_keys":["EC-M-12-945|EC-M-12-945-2023||3474","EC-M-12-945|EC-M-12-945-2019||1615","EC-M-12-945|EC-M-12-945-2014||335"],"shares":[[0.4224772679460508,0.3275052009069446],[0.49650296099652846,0.4037676128241781],[0.5145725651503261,0.3592671772251238]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":49.83280826615548,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,1.3417171174119351,0,0,0,0,98.65828288258807],[40.37676128241781,0,0,0,0,8.301000612619971,51.322238104962224],[0,51.45725651503261,0,8.172543501204233,3.5504559846291235,35.92671772251238,0.8930262766216546]],"volatility_latest":48.67776189503778,"volatility_previous":90.80597311075837,"volatility_mean":69.74186750289807,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-12-946","country":"Ecuador","region":"LOS RÍOS","name":"MOCACHE / LOS RÍOS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[22.76354286727547,0.8765949157494894,3.1841179058512985],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-12-946|EC-M-12-946-2023||2722","EC-M-12-946|EC-M-12-946-2019||1616","EC-M-12-946|EC-M-12-946-2014||336"],"all_keys":["EC-M-12-946|EC-M-12-946-2023||2722","EC-M-12-946|EC-M-12-946-2019||1616","EC-M-12-946|EC-M-12-946-2014||336"],"shares":[[0.43448000709282736,0.2068445784200727],[0.25577091652868417,0.24700496737118927],[0.3423889133304004,0.31054773427188737]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":28.802420071623715,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,15.02792800780211,4.472914265449065,0,0,0,80.49915772674882],[25.577091652868415,0,0,0,0,24.700496737118925,49.722411610012664],[0,28.728552573691157,0,0,0,31.05477342718874,40.216673999120104]],"volatility_latest":50.277588389987336,"volatility_previous":35.08282926376097,"volatility_mean":42.68020882687415,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-13-230","country":"Ecuador","region":"MANABÍ","name":"FLAVIO ALFARO / MANABÍ","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[11.915050590219227,12.324914823427616,4.540636042402831],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-13-230|EC-M-13-230-2023||2723","EC-M-13-230|EC-M-13-230-2019||1617","EC-M-13-230|EC-M-13-230-2014||337"],"all_keys":["EC-M-13-230|EC-M-13-230-2023||2723","EC-M-13-230|EC-M-13-230-2019||1617","EC-M-13-230|EC-M-13-230-2014||337"],"shares":[[0.42543212478920744,0.30628161888701516],[0.36525877453896494,0.24200962630468875],[0.3809187279151944,0.33551236749116603]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":43.49715797299949,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0.5059021922428331,0,0,0,99.49409780775716],null,[0,38.091872791519435,0,0,0,0,61.90812720848056]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-13-440","country":"Ecuador","region":"MANABÍ","name":"PORTOVIEJO / MANABÍ","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[6.989076193832201,29.33525560610883,7.244094488188978],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-13-440|EC-M-13-440-2023||3542","EC-M-13-440|EC-M-13-440-2019||1618","EC-M-13-440|EC-M-13-440-2014||338"],"all_keys":["EC-M-13-440|EC-M-13-440-2023||3542","EC-M-13-440|EC-M-13-440-2019||1618","EC-M-13-440|EC-M-13-440-2014||338"],"shares":[[0.2823309424482512,0.21244018050992916],[0.43770400743944526,0.14435145137835695],[0.40331700663401326,0.33087606175212353]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":31.407840765245677,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0.3931921586249508,3.36085678443708,1.6695063878122913,0,94.57644466912569],[0,12.972285944571889,0.3999007998015996,1.2933225866451732,40.33170066340133,0,45.00279000558001]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":51.64118886133758,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-13-445","country":"Ecuador","region":"MANABÍ","name":"MONTECRISTI / MANABÍ","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[7.176982918992049,13.610759048021407,0.5629225546237961],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-13-445|EC-M-13-445-2023||2724","EC-M-13-445|EC-M-13-445-2019||1619","EC-M-13-445|EC-M-13-445-2014||339"],"all_keys":["EC-M-13-445|EC-M-13-445-2023||2724","EC-M-13-445|EC-M-13-445-2019||1619","EC-M-13-445|EC-M-13-445-2014||339"],"shares":[[0.2352443767968882,0.1634745476069677],[0.2733417828474863,0.13723419236727222],[0.2949249920204277,0.28929576647418975]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":57.771451393679854,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[16.34745476069677,0,0.4904447826822256,0,0,0,83.162100456621],[0,0,0,0,4.567431817114961,0,95.43256818288502],[0,19.104546905376782,0,28.929576647418973,29.49249920204277,0,22.47337724516148]],"volatility_latest":16.837899543378985,"volatility_previous":72.95919093772355,"volatility_mean":44.898545240551265,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-13-446","country":"Ecuador","region":"MANABÍ","name":"JARAMIJÓ / MANABÍ","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[9.934864586904354,3.093519473308479,3.559838725538402],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-13-446|EC-M-13-446-2023||2725","EC-M-13-446|EC-M-13-446-2019||1620","EC-M-13-446|EC-M-13-446-2014||340"],"all_keys":["EC-M-13-446|EC-M-13-446-2023||2725","EC-M-13-446|EC-M-13-446-2019||1620","EC-M-13-446|EC-M-13-446-2014||340"],"shares":[[0.3579705176551251,0.2586218717860816],[0.3154596652653288,0.284524470532244],[0.2489920346150064,0.21339364735962238]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":63.77520766655502,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,1.64552622557422,0,0,0,98.35447377442578],null,[0,21.33936473596224,0,0.501524240338283,11.249877077392075,0,66.90923394630741]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-13-450","country":"Ecuador","region":"MANABÍ","name":"MANTA / MANABÍ","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[28.758793593773383,6.322966283739611,13.288762125298277],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-13-450|EC-M-13-450-2023||3285","EC-M-13-450|EC-M-13-450-2019||1621","EC-M-13-450|EC-M-13-450-2014||341"],"all_keys":["EC-M-13-450|EC-M-13-450-2023||3285","EC-M-13-450|EC-M-13-450-2019||1621","EC-M-13-450|EC-M-13-450-2014||341"],"shares":[[0.6125205807513845,0.3249326448136507],[0.4168367823453281,0.353607119507932],[0.53475565847253,0.40186803721954734]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,2.569747428251211,0,97.43025257174878],[0,3.431794755940867,0,0,53.47556584725301,0,43.09263939680612]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":54.33761317494266,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-13-455","country":"Ecuador","region":"MANABÍ","name":"JIPIJAPA / MANABÍ","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[5.550966812800475,4.001855164645864,17.76716872870719],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-13-455|EC-M-13-455-2023||2726","EC-M-13-455|EC-M-13-455-2019||1622","EC-M-13-455|EC-M-13-455-2014||342"],"all_keys":["EC-M-13-455|EC-M-13-455-2023||2726","EC-M-13-455|EC-M-13-455-2019||1622","EC-M-13-455|EC-M-13-455-2014||342"],"shares":[[0.25927102526632356,0.20376135713831883],[0.1959186377791029,0.15590008613264428],[0.4082616101846871,0.2305899228976152]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":68.46073245027618,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,25.927102526632357,0,0,0,74.07289747336763],[0,0,9.107974999447867,0,2.4492590384063253,0,88.44276596214581],[0,40.82616101846871,1.759458490227721,2.6268603191680113,3.7340864263941187,0,51.05343374574144]],"volatility_latest":16.8191275271845,"volatility_previous":44.73784872562452,"volatility_mean":30.778488126404508,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-13-460","country":"Ecuador","region":"MANABÍ","name":"24 DE MAYO / MANABÍ","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[3.1809042635459086,8.468912626677621,7.639961113970379],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-13-460|EC-M-13-460-2023||3286","EC-M-13-460|EC-M-13-460-2019||1623","EC-M-13-460|EC-M-13-460-2014||343"],"all_keys":["EC-M-13-460|EC-M-13-460-2023||3286","EC-M-13-460|EC-M-13-460-2019||1623","EC-M-13-460|EC-M-13-460-2014||343"],"shares":[[0.23601587874413568,0.2042068361086766],[0.3254450835387565,0.2407559572719803],[0.39469320066334995,0.31829358952364617]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":73.93393771236066,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,1.567252667938341,0,0,0,0,98.43274733206164],[0,0,0,0,4.19063270336894,0,95.80936729663105],[0,31.829358952364615,0,2.2130725681935153,39.469320066334994,0,26.48824841310688]],"volatility_latest":4.190632703368934,"volatility_previous":69.32111888352418,"volatility_mean":36.755875793446556,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-13-465","country":"Ecuador","region":"MANABÍ","name":"ROCAFUERTE / MANABÍ","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[7.618457726850416,6.1299214218126465,10.150630447660149],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-13-465|EC-M-13-465-2023||3399","EC-M-13-465|EC-M-13-465-2019||1624","EC-M-13-465|EC-M-13-465-2014||344"],"all_keys":["EC-M-13-465|EC-M-13-465-2023||3399","EC-M-13-465|EC-M-13-465-2019||1624","EC-M-13-465|EC-M-13-465-2014||344"],"shares":[[0.4025240012387736,0.32633942397026944],[0.3629818570782079,0.30168264286008145],[0.49826521113649824,0.39675890665989677]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":62.87442946289972,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,4.727033364874316,0,95.2729666351257],[0,49.826521113649825,0,0,0,0,50.173478886350175]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":49.82652111364983,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-13-470","country":"Ecuador","region":"MANABÍ","name":"SANTA ANA / MANABÍ","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[12.440758293838861,4.408171936409023,0.8809445480133036],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-13-470|EC-M-13-470-2023||3394","EC-M-13-470|EC-M-13-470-2019||1625","EC-M-13-470|EC-M-13-470-2014||345"],"all_keys":["EC-M-13-470|EC-M-13-470-2023||3394","EC-M-13-470|EC-M-13-470-2019||1625","EC-M-13-470|EC-M-13-470-2014||345"],"shares":[[0.35558564658090724,0.2311780636425186],[0.25694862443791383,0.2128669050738236],[0.21530138538582444,0.20649193990569142]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":55.624994939863235,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,3.4224779959377116,0,0,0,0,96.57752200406229],[0,0,0,8.607442552136813,2.6909322664022945,0,88.7016251814609],[0,18.448660306320136,0,19.987571736667032,10.655408122235626,0,50.9083598347772]],"volatility_latest":11.298374818539106,"volatility_previous":37.79326534668369,"volatility_mean":24.5458200826114,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-13-475","country":"Ecuador","region":"MANABÍ","name":"SUCRE / MANABÍ","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[9.357468564322232,21.02121279431364,6.525895277500361],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-13-475|EC-M-13-475-2023||2727","EC-M-13-475|EC-M-13-475-2019||1626","EC-M-13-475|EC-M-13-475-2014||346"],"all_keys":["EC-M-13-475|EC-M-13-475-2023||2727","EC-M-13-475|EC-M-13-475-2019||1626","EC-M-13-475|EC-M-13-475-2014||346"],"shares":[[0.4295426281608401,0.3359679425176178],[0.4926421590404265,0.2824300310972901],[0.3604508489085462,0.2951918961335426]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":37.13282747681267,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0.809727787757358,0,0,0,99.19027221224263],[0,0,0,0,2.2101288316303864,0,97.7898711683696],[0,29.519189613354257,0,18.998430589242403,1.4238835782565273,0,50.05849621914681]],"volatility_latest":2.210128831630388,"volatility_previous":48.51762020259665,"volatility_mean":25.36387451711352,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-13-476","country":"Ecuador","region":"MANABÍ","name":"JAMA / MANABÍ","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[4.552143627979987,2.6701685270299826,2.599448601811737],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-13-476|EC-M-13-476-2023||2728","EC-M-13-476|EC-M-13-476-2019||1627","EC-M-13-476|EC-M-13-476-2014||347"],"all_keys":["EC-M-13-476|EC-M-13-476-2023||2728","EC-M-13-476|EC-M-13-476-2019||1627","EC-M-13-476|EC-M-13-476-2014||347"],"shares":[[0.4088099676248406,0.36328853134504074],[0.29054497701904136,0.26384329174874155],[0.3484311408691086,0.3224366548509912]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":81.03859202460919,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,1.0006867458059452,0,0,0,98.99931325419406],null,[0,7.273204673756072,0,24.405934094787973,0,0,68.32086123145596]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-13-477","country":"Ecuador","region":"MANABÍ","name":"SAN VICENTE / MANABÍ","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[8.084542410714285,16.697355822346612,22.870377639946614],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-13-477|EC-M-13-477-2023||2729","EC-M-13-477|EC-M-13-477-2019||1628","EC-M-13-477|EC-M-13-477-2014||348"],"all_keys":["EC-M-13-477|EC-M-13-477-2023||2729","EC-M-13-477|EC-M-13-477-2019||1628","EC-M-13-477|EC-M-13-477-2014||348"],"shares":[[0.3447963169642857,0.26395089285714285],[0.4175443765191132,0.25057081829564704],[0.5145638690429457,0.2858600926434796]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":39.26515021436392,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,1.8345424107142858,0,0,0,98.16545758928572],[0,0,0,0,6.0175296457243865,0,93.98247035427562],[0,28.58600926434796,0,9.295752531993404,10.661851299364058,0,51.456386904294575]],"volatility_latest":6.017529645724387,"volatility_previous":42.52608344998104,"volatility_mean":24.271806547852712,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-13-480","country":"Ecuador","region":"MANABÍ","name":"CHONE / MANABÍ","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[23.533224443234552,10.451218645633485,23.323739777163535],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-13-480|EC-M-13-480-2023||3543","EC-M-13-480|EC-M-13-480-2019||1629","EC-M-13-480|EC-M-13-480-2014||349"],"all_keys":["EC-M-13-480|EC-M-13-480-2023||3543","EC-M-13-480|EC-M-13-480-2019||1629","EC-M-13-480|EC-M-13-480-2014||349"],"shares":[[0.42996033289258767,0.19462808846024215],[0.3186811625097705,0.21416897605343566],[0.4706636651183997,0.2374262673467643]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":2.061628813264349,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,9.66247424145527,0,90.33752575854473],[0,47.066366511839966,0,19.210383837232495,5.230387826632092,0,28.49286182429544]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":66.27675034907246,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-13-485","country":"Ecuador","region":"MANABÍ","name":"BOLÍVAR / MANABÍ","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[10.730570810450985,11.06425204663855,2.6346759804107656],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-13-485|EC-M-13-485-2023||3287","EC-M-13-485|EC-M-13-485-2019||1630","EC-M-13-485|EC-M-13-485-2014||350"],"all_keys":["EC-M-13-485|EC-M-13-485-2023||3287","EC-M-13-485|EC-M-13-485-2019||1630","EC-M-13-485|EC-M-13-485-2014||350"],"shares":[[0.4838076219004826,0.37650191379597275],[0.31502285856044226,0.20438033809405678],[0.28765043088721004,0.2613036710831024]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":49.89457150848384,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,31.502285856044228,0,20.438033809405677,48.059680334550094],[0,9.950267643597433,0.9946471280513268,4.0810903154777725,28.765043088721004,0,56.208951824152464]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":47.85922934997213,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-13-490","country":"Ecuador","region":"MANABÍ","name":"JUNÍN / MANABÍ","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[1.801172856743925,40.56185995017991,3.397584939623485],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-13-490|EC-M-13-490-2023||3544","EC-M-13-490|EC-M-13-490-2019||1631","EC-M-13-490|EC-M-13-490-2014||351"],"all_keys":["EC-M-13-490|EC-M-13-490-2023||3544","EC-M-13-490|EC-M-13-490-2019||1631","EC-M-13-490|EC-M-13-490-2014||351"],"shares":[[0.3459927394582519,0.32798101089081266],[0.5659424301134791,0.16032383061168004],[0.3693092327308182,0.3353333833345834]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":32.05489903468661,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,33.53333833345834,0,0,24.675616890422262,0,41.7910447761194]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-13-495","country":"Ecuador","region":"MANABÍ","name":"PAJÁN / MANABÍ","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[4.021882663648366,3.6394733701921176,30.56126354808816],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-13-495|EC-M-13-495-2023||2730","EC-M-13-495|EC-M-13-495-2019||1632","EC-M-13-495|EC-M-13-495-2014||352"],"all_keys":["EC-M-13-495|EC-M-13-495-2023||2730","EC-M-13-495|EC-M-13-495-2019||1632","EC-M-13-495|EC-M-13-495-2014||352"],"shares":[[0.26553480475382,0.22531597811733636],[0.27910584304522496,0.24271110934330375],[0.5498609935936178,0.2442483581127362]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":67.19451017972264,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,22.531597811733636,0,0,0,77.46840218826638],[0,0,0,0,2.653036872041685,0,97.34696312795832],[0,24.42483581127362,0,12.466255691204319,1.2450139006406382,0,61.86389459688142]],"volatility_latest":22.53159781173363,"volatility_previous":36.89109150247794,"volatility_mean":29.711344657105784,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-13-500","country":"Ecuador","region":"MANABÍ","name":"EL CARMEN / MANABÍ","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[26.085247619879464,5.177967071595575,1.22887864823349],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-13-500|EC-M-13-500-2023||3545","EC-M-13-500|EC-M-13-500-2019||1633","EC-M-13-500|EC-M-13-500-2014||353"],"all_keys":["EC-M-13-500|EC-M-13-500-2023||3545","EC-M-13-500|EC-M-13-500-2019||1633","EC-M-13-500|EC-M-13-500-2014||353"],"shares":[[0.47418988557952657,0.21333740938073195],[0.32570344816310515,0.2739237774471494],[0.42722497202783943,0.4149361855455045]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":13.362867208851503,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0.5542566584372906,0,0,0,99.44574334156273],[0,3.671464603364245,0,0,3.017200508239935,42.72249720278394,50.58883768561188]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":49.411162314388136,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-13-550","country":"Ecuador","region":"MANABÍ","name":"TOSAGUA / MANABÍ","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[0.7303391936151797,11.59398093196003,3.8337746995314674],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-13-550|EC-M-13-550-2023||3546","EC-M-13-550|EC-M-13-550-2019||1634","EC-M-13-550|EC-M-13-550-2014||354"],"all_keys":["EC-M-13-550|EC-M-13-550-2023||3546","EC-M-13-550|EC-M-13-550-2019||1634","EC-M-13-550|EC-M-13-550-2014||354"],"shares":[[0.2907051161389903,0.28340172420283855],[0.40161580579699047,0.28567599647739017],[0.41210022407822366,0.373762477082909]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":78.50112367144868,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,41.210022407822365,2.0737421063353025,0,0.7985333061723365,0,55.91770217967]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-13-840","country":"Ecuador","region":"MANABÍ","name":"PICHINCHA / MANABÍ","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[18.098128980891715,9.270316769557738,6.131166328072098],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-13-840|EC-M-13-840-2023||3288","EC-M-13-840|EC-M-13-840-2019||1635","EC-M-13-840|EC-M-13-840-2014||355"],"all_keys":["EC-M-13-840|EC-M-13-840-2023||3288","EC-M-13-840|EC-M-13-840-2019||1635","EC-M-13-840|EC-M-13-840-2014||355"],"shares":[[0.43590764331210186,0.2549263535031847],[0.3542151604088655,0.2615119927132881],[0.5306558316403605,0.4693441683596395]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":28.734554738952202,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,4.8729885639105355,0,95.12701143608948],[0,53.06558316403605,0,0,0,0,46.93441683596395]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":53.065583164036056,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-13-910","country":"Ecuador","region":"MANABÍ","name":"PEDERNALES / MANABÍ","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[2.468104714454398,8.365843086259211,10.806181208542895],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-13-910|EC-M-13-910-2023||2731","EC-M-13-910|EC-M-13-910-2019||1636","EC-M-13-910|EC-M-13-910-2014||356"],"all_keys":["EC-M-13-910|EC-M-13-910-2023||2731","EC-M-13-910|EC-M-13-910-2019||1636","EC-M-13-910|EC-M-13-910-2014||356"],"shares":[[0.34308671485758724,0.31840566771304324],[0.27921233512911015,0.19555390426651806],[0.4814490852102923,0.37338727312486336]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":74.64383062297655,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0.639345678656798,0,0,0,99.3606543213432],[0,0,0,0,1.414948294012013,0,98.585051705988],[0,37.338727312486334,0.34987972884321017,1.1808440848458341,0.5539762373350827,0,60.57657263648954]],"volatility_latest":1.4149482940120113,"volatility_previous":38.869451126175385,"volatility_mean":20.1421997100937,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-13-970","country":"Ecuador","region":"MANABÍ","name":"OLMEDO / MANABÍ","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[13.245426467094326,8.117443868739205,2.39841986455982],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-13-970|EC-M-13-970-2023||3289","EC-M-13-970|EC-M-13-970-2019||1637","EC-M-13-970|EC-M-13-970-2014||357"],"all_keys":["EC-M-13-970|EC-M-13-970-2023||3289","EC-M-13-970|EC-M-13-970-2019||1637","EC-M-13-970|EC-M-13-970-2014||357"],"shares":[[0.42112140650985985,0.2886671418389166],[0.2997210043842168,0.21854656569682476],[0.264813769751693,0.24082957110609482]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":46.888344863328314,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,21.854656569682476,0,0,78.14534343031751],[0,24.08295711060948,0,23.8431151241535,14.362302483069977,0,37.71162528216705]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":40.43371814815047,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-13-975","country":"Ecuador","region":"MANABÍ","name":"PUERTO LÓPEZ / MANABÍ","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[24.65472807771096,26.005232718259435,3.869826127096477],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-13-975|EC-M-13-975-2023||3331","EC-M-13-975|EC-M-13-975-2019||1638","EC-M-13-975|EC-M-13-975-2014||358"],"all_keys":["EC-M-13-975|EC-M-13-975-2023||3331","EC-M-13-975|EC-M-13-975-2019||1638","EC-M-13-975|EC-M-13-975-2014||358"],"shares":[[0.4597898632128461,0.2132425824357365],[0.4187551638667034,0.15870283668410906],[0.3017387290352362,0.2630404677642714]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,15.870283668410906,0,84.1297163315891],[0,30.17387290352362,26.304046776427143,19.23372826588706,1.230958609016772,0,23.057393445145404]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":75.71164794583783,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-14-590","country":"Ecuador","region":"MORONA SANTIAGO","name":"MORONA / MORONA SANTIAGO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[24.71144162987063,9.59539865132884,1.884548531698833],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-14-590|EC-M-14-590-2023||2732","EC-M-14-590|EC-M-14-590-2019||1639","EC-M-14-590|EC-M-14-590-2014||359"],"all_keys":["EC-M-14-590|EC-M-14-590-2023||2732","EC-M-14-590|EC-M-14-590-2019||1639","EC-M-14-590|EC-M-14-590-2014||359"],"shares":[[0.47951041908745834,0.23239600278875205],[0.3571201904006347,0.2611662038873463],[0.3864239319366938,0.36757844661970546]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":10.530302867545437,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,47.951041908745836,0,0,0,52.048958091254164],[0,0,26.116620388734628,35.71201904006347,0,0,38.1713605712019],[0,0.6723995974750709,21.114262190101545,0,0,38.64239319366938,39.570945018754]],"volatility_latest":35.71201904006347,"volatility_previous":40.71437723869655,"volatility_mean":38.21319813938001,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-14-595","country":"Ecuador","region":"MORONA SANTIAGO","name":"GUALAQUIZA / MORONA SANTIAGO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[6.6530368855950215,1.5820078672823712,13.010926750303522],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-14-595|EC-M-14-595-2023||2733","EC-M-14-595|EC-M-14-595-2019||1640","EC-M-14-595|EC-M-14-595-2014||360"],"all_keys":["EC-M-14-595|EC-M-14-595-2023||2733","EC-M-14-595|EC-M-14-595-2019||1640","EC-M-14-595|EC-M-14-595-2014||360"],"shares":[[0.44228639577476786,0.3757560269188176],[0.34975200957756114,0.33393193090473744],[0.4118777822743829,0.2817685147713476]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":71.16241416713962,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,44.228639577476784,0,0,0,55.771360422523216],[0,0,34.975200957756115,31.631605951770137,0,0,33.393193090473744],[0,0,41.18777822743829,0,0,22.703358963982193,36.108862808579524]],"volatility_latest":31.63160595177014,"volatility_previous":31.63160595177014,"volatility_mean":31.63160595177014,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-14-600","country":"Ecuador","region":"MORONA SANTIAGO","name":"LIMÓN INDANZA / MORONA SANTIAGO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[2.222932992163763,16.640403403718878,11.871055773494799],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-14-600|EC-M-14-600-2023||2734","EC-M-14-600|EC-M-14-600-2019||1641","EC-M-14-600|EC-M-14-600-2014||361"],"all_keys":["EC-M-14-600|EC-M-14-600-2023||2734","EC-M-14-600|EC-M-14-600-2019||1641","EC-M-14-600|EC-M-14-600-2014||361"],"shares":[[0.3500719654565808,0.3278426355349432],[0.4528837062716672,0.28647967223447846],[0.4055944055944056,0.2868838478594576]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":62.43506803118299,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,32.78426355349432,0,0,0,67.21573644650567],[0,0,45.28837062716672,20.264733690513708,0,0,34.44689568231957],[0,28.68838478594576,14.480641309909602,0,0,40.55944055944056,16.271533344704075]],"volatility_latest":32.76884076418611,"volatility_previous":69.24782534538632,"volatility_mean":51.00833305478621,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-14-605","country":"Ecuador","region":"MORONA SANTIAGO","name":"SANTIAGO / MORONA SANTIAGO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[17.177532285669827,8.30235439900867,0.649122807017541],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-14-605|EC-M-14-605-2023||2735","EC-M-14-605|EC-M-14-605-2019||1642","EC-M-14-605|EC-M-14-605-2014||362"],"all_keys":["EC-M-14-605|EC-M-14-605-2023||2735","EC-M-14-605|EC-M-14-605-2019||1642","EC-M-14-605|EC-M-14-605-2014||362"],"shares":[[0.5753850941341216,0.40360977127742337],[0.41325898389095417,0.33023543990086746],[0.34210526315789475,0.3356140350877193]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":35.68931014096874,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,40.36097712774234,0,0,0,59.63902287225766],[0,0,41.325898389095414,0,0,0,58.674101610904586],[0,0,32.228070175438596,0,0,33.56140350877193,34.21052631578947]],"volatility_latest":0.9649212613530764,"volatility_previous":33.56140350877193,"volatility_mean":17.263162385062504,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-14-610","country":"Ecuador","region":"MORONA SANTIAGO","name":"SUCÚA / MORONA SANTIAGO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[3.646677471636952,6.044270195213588,1.955307262569832],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-14-610|EC-M-14-610-2023||2736","EC-M-14-610|EC-M-14-610-2019||1643","EC-M-14-610|EC-M-14-610-2014||363"],"all_keys":["EC-M-14-610|EC-M-14-610-2023||2736","EC-M-14-610|EC-M-14-610-2019||1643","EC-M-14-610|EC-M-14-610-2014||363"],"shares":[[0.29821717990275526,0.26175040518638576],[0.32524707996406105,0.2648043780119252],[0.4094972067039106,0.38994413407821227]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":79.01590866098385,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.4538087520259319,0,13.338735818476499,0,0,0,86.20745542949757],[0,0,25.059217512047702,26.48043780119252,0,0,48.46034468675978],[0,0,20.05586592178771,0,0,40.94972067039106,38.99441340782123]],"volatility_latest":38.200919494763724,"volatility_previous":40.94972067039106,"volatility_mean":39.57532008257739,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-14-611","country":"Ecuador","region":"MORONA SANTIAGO","name":"LOGROÑO / MORONA SANTIAGO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[5.162918770078019,6.036168132942329,7.032146957520091],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-14-611|EC-M-14-611-2023||2737","EC-M-14-611|EC-M-14-611-2019||1644","EC-M-14-611|EC-M-14-611-2014||364"],"all_keys":["EC-M-14-611|EC-M-14-611-2023||2737","EC-M-14-611|EC-M-14-611-2019||1644","EC-M-14-611|EC-M-14-611-2014||364"],"shares":[[0.3536025699862322,0.301973382285452],[0.36412512218963833,0.30376344086021506],[0.3237657864523536,0.25344431687715274]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":71.9409180115924,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,35.36025699862322,0,0,0,64.63974300137677],[2.6881720430107525,0,30.376344086021504,0,36.41251221896383,0,30.522971652003907],[0,0,32.37657864523536,0,0,23.048220436280136,44.5752009184845]],"volatility_latest":39.100684261974585,"volatility_previous":39.100684261974585,"volatility_mean":39.100684261974585,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-14-615","country":"Ecuador","region":"MORONA SANTIAGO","name":"PALORA / MORONA SANTIAGO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[10.302836083960905,2.066631035097096,9.106239460370993],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-14-615|EC-M-14-615-2023||2738","EC-M-14-615|EC-M-14-615-2019||1645","EC-M-14-615|EC-M-14-615-2014||365"],"all_keys":["EC-M-14-615|EC-M-14-615-2023||2738","EC-M-14-615|EC-M-14-615-2019||1645","EC-M-14-615|EC-M-14-615-2014||365"],"shares":[[0.4202852107034129,0.31725684986380387],[0.2920007126313914,0.27133440228042044],[0.41547217537942666,0.3244097807757167]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":61.43842546528614,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,42.02852107034129,0,0,0,57.97147892965871],[0,0,27.133440228042044,23.374309638339568,0,0,49.492250133618384],[0,0,32.44097807757167,0,0,41.547217537942664,26.011804384485664]],"volatility_latest":23.374309638339568,"volatility_previous":46.85475538747229,"volatility_mean":35.114532512905924,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-14-795","country":"Ecuador","region":"MORONA SANTIAGO","name":"HUAMBOYA / MORONA SANTIAGO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[18.672199170124486,3.7436419125127145,17.47770700636942],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-14-795|EC-M-14-795-2023||2739","EC-M-14-795|EC-M-14-795-2019||1646","EC-M-14-795|EC-M-14-795-2014||366"],"all_keys":["EC-M-14-795|EC-M-14-795-2023||2739","EC-M-14-795|EC-M-14-795-2019||1646","EC-M-14-795|EC-M-14-795-2014||366"],"shares":[[0.4661735522280354,0.27945156052679054],[0.2942014242115971,0.25676500508647],[0.5169426751592356,0.34216560509554145]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":29.629086117672752,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,16.110409525527693,0,0,0,83.88959047447231],[0,0,29.420142421159714,0,0,0,70.57985757884029],[0,0,34.21656050955414,0,0,14.089171974522293,51.69426751592356]],"volatility_latest":13.309732895632022,"volatility_previous":18.885590062916723,"volatility_mean":16.09766147927437,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-14-796","country":"Ecuador","region":"MORONA SANTIAGO","name":"PABLO SEXTO / MORONA SANTIAGO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[14.091218515997284,8.042895442359246,17.112733171127335],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-14-796|EC-M-14-796-2023||2740","EC-M-14-796|EC-M-14-796-2019||1647","EC-M-14-796|EC-M-14-796-2014||367"],"all_keys":["EC-M-14-796|EC-M-14-796-2023||2740","EC-M-14-796|EC-M-14-796-2019||1647","EC-M-14-796|EC-M-14-796-2014||367"],"shares":[[0.5704560925799864,0.4295439074200136],[0.42359249329758714,0.34316353887399464],[0.4598540145985402,0.28872668288726683]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":37.10563470290561,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,42.95439074200136,0,0,0,57.04560925799864],[0,0,23.324396782841823,0,0,0,76.67560321715817],[0,0,45.98540145985402,0,0,25.141930251419303,28.872668288726683]],"volatility_latest":19.62999395915953,"volatility_previous":47.80293492843149,"volatility_mean":33.71646444379551,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-14-797","country":"Ecuador","region":"MORONA SANTIAGO","name":"TIWINTZA / MORONA SANTIAGO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[24.831804281345562,5.560478511298179,2.170808340474153],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-14-797|EC-M-14-797-2023||2741","EC-M-14-797|EC-M-14-797-2019||1648","EC-M-14-797|EC-M-14-797-2014||368"],"all_keys":["EC-M-14-797|EC-M-14-797-2023||2741","EC-M-14-797|EC-M-14-797-2019||1648","EC-M-14-797|EC-M-14-797-2014||368"],"shares":[[0.6152905198776758,0.3669724770642202],[0.5093043863535667,0.4536996012405849],[0.4521565267066553,0.43044844330191373]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":16.07846521877898,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,61.52905198776758,0.6320081549439348,0,0,37.83893985728848],[0,0,45.36996012405849,3.699601240584847,0,0,50.930438635356666],[0,0,45.21565267066553,0,0,11.739502999143102,43.044844330191374]],"volatility_latest":16.159091863709097,"volatility_previous":11.7395029991431,"volatility_mean":13.9492974314261,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-14-925","country":"Ecuador","region":"MORONA SANTIAGO","name":"SAN JUAN BOSCO / MORONA SANTIAGO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[3.7774725274725256,5.377071356104153,4.166666666666664],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-14-925|EC-M-14-925-2023||2742","EC-M-14-925|EC-M-14-925-2019||1649","EC-M-14-925|EC-M-14-925-2014||369"],"all_keys":["EC-M-14-925|EC-M-14-925-2023||2742","EC-M-14-925|EC-M-14-925-2019||1649","EC-M-14-925|EC-M-14-925-2014||369"],"shares":[[0.5154532967032968,0.47767857142857145],[0.5268853567805207,0.4731146432194792],[0.4077102803738317,0.3660436137071651]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":78.51864205009286,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,47.767857142857146,0,0,0,52.23214285714286],[0,0,52.68853567805208,0,0,0,47.31146432194792],[0,36.60436137071651,22.62461059190031,0,0,40.771028037383175,0]],"volatility_latest":4.920678535194934,"volatility_previous":77.3753894080997,"volatility_mean":41.148033971647315,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-14-926","country":"Ecuador","region":"MORONA SANTIAGO","name":"TAISHA / MORONA SANTIAGO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[11.863380890618245,30.76127430699214,54.86929432480022],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-14-926|EC-M-14-926-2023||2743","EC-M-14-926|EC-M-14-926-2019||1650","EC-M-14-926|EC-M-14-926-2014||370"],"all_keys":["EC-M-14-926|EC-M-14-926-2023||2743","EC-M-14-926|EC-M-14-926-2019||1650","EC-M-14-926|EC-M-14-926-2014||370"],"shares":[[0.5535667963683528,0.43493298746217035],[0.5394083574679355,0.23179561439801408],[0.7743464716240012,0.22565352837599892]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,43.493298746217036,0,0,0,56.50670125378297],[0,0,53.940835746793546,0,0,0,46.059164253206454],[0,0,77.43464716240011,0,0,22.565352837599892,0]],"volatility_latest":10.447537000576514,"volatility_previous":46.059164253206454,"volatility_mean":28.253350626891482,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-15-255","country":"Ecuador","region":"NAPO","name":"EL CHACO / NAPO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[20.302474793767182,32.64442636289666,6.468906361686919],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-15-255|EC-M-15-255-2023||2744","EC-M-15-255|EC-M-15-255-2019||1651","EC-M-15-255|EC-M-15-255-2014||371"],"all_keys":["EC-M-15-255|EC-M-15-255-2023||2744","EC-M-15-255|EC-M-15-255-2019||1651","EC-M-15-255|EC-M-15-255-2014||371"],"shares":[[0.4911396272532844,0.2881148793156126],[0.5173311635475997,0.19088689991863306],[0.5323445318084346,0.4676554681915654]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.916590284142988,0,15.230675221509319,0,0,0,83.85273449434769],null,[0,0,0,0,0,46.76554681915654,53.23445318084346]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-15-620","country":"Ecuador","region":"NAPO","name":"TENA / NAPO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[1.8573363638450786,17.13842081148501,7.6825473550647985],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-15-620|EC-M-15-620-2023||2745","EC-M-15-620|EC-M-15-620-2019||1652","EC-M-15-620|EC-M-15-620-2014||372"],"all_keys":["EC-M-15-620|EC-M-15-620-2023||2745","EC-M-15-620|EC-M-15-620-2019||1652","EC-M-15-620|EC-M-15-620-2014||372"],"shares":[[0.33184103588401404,0.3132676722455633],[0.3940589522985287,0.22267474418367864],[0.3640977613969366,0.2872722878462886]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":64.87908601370485,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,33.184103588401406,0,0,0,66.81589641159859],[3.128340884793565,0,0,0,0,0,96.87165911520644],[0,15.304673574816471,0,36.40977613969366,0.7280746805232471,11.214162714117398,36.34331289084921]],"volatility_latest":33.18410358840141,"volatility_previous":63.65668710915079,"volatility_mean":48.4203953487761,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-15-621","country":"Ecuador","region":"NAPO","name":"C. J. AROSEMENA TOLA / NAPO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[25.007795447458683,3.74125874125874,6.843575418994412],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-15-621|EC-M-15-621-2023||2746","EC-M-15-621|EC-M-15-621-2019||1653","EC-M-15-621|EC-M-15-621-2014||373"],"all_keys":["EC-M-15-621|EC-M-15-621-2023||2746","EC-M-15-621|EC-M-15-621-2019||1653","EC-M-15-621|EC-M-15-621-2014||373"],"shares":[[0.5753040224508886,0.3252260679763018],[0.23006993006993007,0.19265734265734266],[0.2644320297951583,0.19599627560521415]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":15.942937836238634,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,32.52260679763018,0,0,0,67.47739320236983],[0,0,9.475524475524475,0,16.818181818181817,0,73.7062937062937],[0,6.33147113594041,2.001862197392924,0,17.737430167597765,26.443202979515828,47.486033519553075]],"volatility_latest":23.0470823221057,"volatility_previous":33.69392246487219,"volatility_mean":28.370502393488945,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-15-635","country":"Ecuador","region":"NAPO","name":"QUIJOS / NAPO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[8.079983676800659,0.3959524857017165,8.962148962148966],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-15-635|EC-M-15-635-2023||3367","EC-M-15-635|EC-M-15-635-2019||1654","EC-M-15-635|EC-M-15-635-2014||374"],"all_keys":["EC-M-15-635|EC-M-15-635-2023||3367","EC-M-15-635|EC-M-15-635-2019||1654","EC-M-15-635|EC-M-15-635-2014||374"],"shares":[[0.4215466231381351,0.3407467863701285],[0.24637043554773427,0.2424109106907171],[0.41050061050061054,0.32087912087912085]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":70.68504575997096,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[4.443466783985921,0,0,0,0,0,95.55653321601409],[0,23.85836385836386,0,3.0036630036630036,0,32.08791208791209,41.05006105006105]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":58.949938949938954,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-15-700","country":"Ecuador","region":"NAPO","name":"ARCHIDONA / NAPO","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[20.338803037544473,10.675946679249734,9.680528779950425],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-15-700|EC-M-15-700-2023||2747","EC-M-15-700|EC-M-15-700-2019||1655","EC-M-15-700|EC-M-15-700-2014||375"],"all_keys":["EC-M-15-700|EC-M-15-700-2023||2747","EC-M-15-700|EC-M-15-700-2019||1655","EC-M-15-700|EC-M-15-700-2014||375"],"shares":[[0.47814773511762515,0.2747597047421804],[0.3669930399905627,0.26023357319806534],[0.34060864775543925,0.24380335995593502]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":18.129406478516774,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,13.291912272316925,0,0,0,86.70808772768306],[0,0,12.37466084699776,0,0,0,87.62533915300226],[0,24.3803359955935,0,3.180941889286698,9.852657670063344,34.060864775543926,28.52519966951253]],"volatility_latest":0.9172514253191792,"volatility_previous":71.47480033048748,"volatility_mean":36.19602587790333,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-16-680","country":"Ecuador","region":"PASTAZA","name":"PASTAZA / PASTAZA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[0.8065663993927039,0.4443767298951258,24.90046303123249],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-16-680|EC-M-16-680-2023||2748","EC-M-16-680|EC-M-16-680-2019||1656","EC-M-16-680|EC-M-16-680-2014||376"],"all_keys":["EC-M-16-680|EC-M-16-680-2023||2748","EC-M-16-680|EC-M-16-680-2019||1656","EC-M-16-680|EC-M-16-680-2014||376"],"shares":[[0.28049532665939175,0.2724296626654647],[0.24626088722988243,0.24181711993093116],[0.42864305305689093,0.17963842274456604]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":84.46350419136294,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,28.049532665939175,0,0,0,71.95046733406082],[0,0,0,9.938802976054442,13.646174551179502,0,76.41502247276605],[0,0,11.817618780782729,0,42.86430530568909,0,45.31807591352818]],"volatility_latest":28.04953266593918,"volatility_previous":41.03574953529232,"volatility_mean":34.54264110061575,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-16-685","country":"Ecuador","region":"PASTAZA","name":"MERA / PASTAZA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[3.454010489957785,5.927419354838712,3.5005048805116132],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-16-685|EC-M-16-685-2023||2749","EC-M-16-685|EC-M-16-685-2019||1657","EC-M-16-685|EC-M-16-685-2014||377"],"all_keys":["EC-M-16-685|EC-M-16-685-2023||2749","EC-M-16-685|EC-M-16-685-2019||1657","EC-M-16-685|EC-M-16-685-2014||377"],"shares":[[0.3483433542279647,0.3138032493283869],[0.3227150537634409,0.26344086021505375],[0.3744530461124201,0.33944799730730396]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":78.99658705761277,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,16.55366508890879,0,0,0,83.44633491109123],[0,0,0,7.002688172043011,0,0,92.99731182795699],[0,0,0,0,28.6098956580276,0,71.3901043419724]],"volatility_latest":16.553665088908783,"volatility_previous":28.6098956580276,"volatility_mean":22.58178037346819,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-16-880","country":"Ecuador","region":"PASTAZA","name":"SANTA CLARA / PASTAZA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[16.242038216560506,2.644628099173552,18.971275885103537],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-16-880|EC-M-16-880-2023||3684","EC-M-16-880|EC-M-16-880-2019||1658","EC-M-16-880|EC-M-16-880-2014||378"],"all_keys":["EC-M-16-880|EC-M-16-880-2023||3684","EC-M-16-880|EC-M-16-880-2019||1658","EC-M-16-880|EC-M-16-880-2014||378"],"shares":[[0.4541891229789319,0.2917687408133268],[0.3950413223140496,0.3685950413223141],[0.5681362725450901,0.3784235136940548]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":37.82130525900639,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,0,0,0,5.344021376085505,0,94.65597862391449]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-16-881","country":"Ecuador","region":"PASTAZA","name":"ARAJUNO / PASTAZA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[19.011406844106467,3.1271399223921463,4.848304580606783],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-16-881|EC-M-16-881-2023||2750","EC-M-16-881|EC-M-16-881-2019||1659","EC-M-16-881|EC-M-16-881-2014||379"],"all_keys":["EC-M-16-881|EC-M-16-881-2023||2750","EC-M-16-881|EC-M-16-881-2019||1659","EC-M-16-881|EC-M-16-881-2014||379"],"shares":[[0.48709225535321193,0.2969781869121473],[0.3779958913490071,0.3467244921250856],[0.2983343248066627,0.2498512790005949]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":35.85091729378899,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,48.709225535321195,0,0,0,51.29077446467881],[0,0,34.67244921250856,0,0,0,65.32755078749143],[0,0,29.83343248066627,0,12.135633551457465,0,58.030933967876265]],"volatility_latest":14.036776322812628,"volatility_previous":12.13563355145746,"volatility_mean":13.086204937135044,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-17-60","country":"Ecuador","region":"PICHINCHA","name":"QUITO / PICHINCHA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[2.983293383357651,2.9678719500743966,20.538364014690664],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-17-60|EC-M-17-60-2023||3475","EC-M-17-60|EC-M-17-60-2019||1660","EC-M-17-60|EC-M-17-60-2014||380"],"all_keys":["EC-M-17-60|EC-M-17-60-2023||3475","EC-M-17-60|EC-M-17-60-2019||1660","EC-M-17-60|EC-M-17-60-2014||380"],"shares":[[0.2518035387572663,0.22197060492368975],[0.2138711122025916,0.18419239270184765],[0.5854868557199222,0.3801032155730156]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":76.32912991747011,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,1.3926764167766739,0,0,0,0,98.60732358322332],[3.531774121318059,0,1.1410947228522312,0,0,0,95.3271311558297],[0,0,1.0862365970413999,0,0,38.01032155730156,60.90344184565704]],"volatility_latest":4.6728688441702895,"volatility_previous":38.01032155730156,"volatility_mean":21.341595200735924,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-17-65","country":"Ecuador","region":"PICHINCHA","name":"CAYAMBE / PICHINCHA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[16.08491357610337,18.764282400646035,1.5484744143462805],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-17-65|EC-M-17-65-2023||2751","EC-M-17-65|EC-M-17-65-2019||1661","EC-M-17-65|EC-M-17-65-2014||381"],"all_keys":["EC-M-17-65|EC-M-17-65-2023||2751","EC-M-17-65|EC-M-17-65-2019||1661","EC-M-17-65|EC-M-17-65-2014||381"],"shares":[[0.3409632488672596,0.18011411310622588],[0.3879486606759334,0.20030583666947305],[0.29781263061521007,0.2823278864717473]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":22.824598463547694,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,18.011411310622588,0,0,0,81.98858868937741],[1.7628563083108537,0,38.79486606759334,0,0,2.7250390886754525,56.71723853542034],[0,0,0,2.274943773261947,0,22.18816551559421,75.53689071114383]],"volatility_latest":25.271350153957062,"volatility_previous":40.55772237590419,"volatility_mean":32.914536264930625,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-17-70","country":"Ecuador","region":"PICHINCHA","name":"MEJÍA / PICHINCHA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[2.7485044357601893,2.3386414339564574,18.1777340407325],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-17-70|EC-M-17-70-2023||2752","EC-M-17-70|EC-M-17-70-2019||1662","EC-M-17-70|EC-M-17-70-2014||382"],"all_keys":["EC-M-17-70|EC-M-17-70-2023||2752","EC-M-17-70|EC-M-17-70-2019||1662","EC-M-17-70|EC-M-17-70-2014||382"],"shares":[[0.2557553756968496,0.22827033133924768],[0.21313177936764366,0.18974536502807907],[0.47019938387814475,0.2884220434708198]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":79.1576575214185,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,7.7787861389439374,0,0,0,92.22121386105606],[3.321409339179937,0,0,0,0,0,96.67859066082005],[0,0,0,8.967995892520966,0,47.01993838781448,44.012065719664555]],"volatility_latest":7.778786138943933,"volatility_previous":55.98793428033544,"volatility_mean":31.883360209639687,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-17-75","country":"Ecuador","region":"PICHINCHA","name":"PEDRO MONCAYO / PICHINCHA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[13.62687813021703,4.02795485668414,0.7392059136473073],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-17-75|EC-M-17-75-2023||3547","EC-M-17-75|EC-M-17-75-2019||1663","EC-M-17-75|EC-M-17-75-2014||383"],"all_keys":["EC-M-17-75|EC-M-17-75-2023||3547","EC-M-17-75|EC-M-17-75-2019||1663","EC-M-17-75|EC-M-17-75-2014||383"],"shares":[[0.4075959933222037,0.2713272120200334],[0.24233838598479485,0.20205883741795344],[0.2605140841126729,0.25312202497619984]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":52.70783036749906,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,0,0,1.5624124992999944,0,26.05140841126729,72.38617908943272]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-17-80","country":"Ecuador","region":"PICHINCHA","name":"RUMIÑAHUI / PICHINCHA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[11.698243610739663,0.21463504377021891,9.66822682841405],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-17-80|EC-M-17-80-2023||2566","EC-M-17-80|EC-M-17-80-2019||1664","EC-M-17-80|EC-M-17-80-2014||384"],"all_keys":["EC-M-17-80|EC-M-17-80-2023||2566","EC-M-17-80|EC-M-17-80-2019||1664","EC-M-17-80|EC-M-17-80-2014||384"],"shares":[[0.32717820815241067,0.21019577204501405],[0.14635043770217857,0.14420408726447637],[0.4250007960008915,0.328318527716751]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":59.74920318791865,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,1.61515693315504,0,0,0,98.38484306684494],[12.142211047572324,0,0,0,0,2.138684900424671,85.71910405200302],[0,8.813321870920495,0,0,0,32.8318527716751,58.354825357404394]],"volatility_latest":14.280895947996976,"volatility_previous":39.506489742170935,"volatility_mean":26.893692845083955,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-17-770","country":"Ecuador","region":"PICHINCHA","name":"SAN MIGUEL DE LOS BANCOS / PICHINCHA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[11.840977282468927,14.781279397930387,0.45168354776895825],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-17-770|EC-M-17-770-2023||3476","EC-M-17-770|EC-M-17-770-2019||1665","EC-M-17-770|EC-M-17-770-2014||385"],"all_keys":["EC-M-17-770|EC-M-17-770-2023||3476","EC-M-17-770|EC-M-17-770-2019||1665","EC-M-17-770|EC-M-17-770-2014||385"],"shares":[[0.3493356193741963,0.23092584654950707],[0.3928739416745061,0.24506114769520226],[0.3091979195182042,0.30468108404051464]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":42.07930728181316,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,34.93356193741963,0,0,0,0,65.06643806258037],[0,0,0,0,0,20.849012229539042,79.15098777046097],[0,20.5858198740761,0,15.234054202025732,0,30.91979195182042,33.260333972077746]],"volatility_latest":34.93356193741964,"volatility_previous":45.89065379838322,"volatility_mean":40.412107867901426,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-17-895","country":"Ecuador","region":"PICHINCHA","name":"PEDRO VICENTE MALDONADO / PICHINCHA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[4.4120603015075375,1.3873473917869,2.7744701119314144],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-17-895|EC-M-17-895-2023||2753","EC-M-17-895|EC-M-17-895-2019||1666","EC-M-17-895|EC-M-17-895-2014||386"],"all_keys":["EC-M-17-895|EC-M-17-895-2023||2753","EC-M-17-895|EC-M-17-895-2019||1666","EC-M-17-895|EC-M-17-895-2014||386"],"shares":[[0.351356783919598,0.30723618090452265],[0.32452830188679244,0.3106548279689234],[0.3840200047630388,0.3562753036437247]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":83.29556295183134,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,19.668341708542712,1.3366834170854272,0,0,0,78.99497487437186],[1.8756936736958933,0,0,0,0,0,98.12430632630411],[0,38.40200047630388,0,2.2267206477732793,0,35.62753036437247,23.743748511550372]],"volatility_latest":21.00502512562814,"volatility_previous":76.25625148844962,"volatility_mean":48.63063830703888,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-17-896","country":"Ecuador","region":"PICHINCHA","name":"PUERTO QUITO / PICHINCHA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[1.1883136542537116,19.718073502265483,0.6683215581439725],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-17-896|EC-M-17-896-2023||3164","EC-M-17-896|EC-M-17-896-2019||1667","EC-M-17-896|EC-M-17-896-2014||387"],"all_keys":["EC-M-17-896|EC-M-17-896-2023||3164","EC-M-17-896|EC-M-17-896-2019||1667","EC-M-17-896|EC-M-17-896-2014||387"],"shares":[[0.24977293369663944,0.23788979715410233],[0.42901493539184427,0.23183420036918945],[0.35086881802558717,0.3441856024441474]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":66.52378800476866,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[10.990009082652135,0,0,0,0,0,89.00999091734788],[42.90149353918443,0,0,0,0,12.753817754656822,44.34468870615875],[0,34.41856024441474,0,0,0,20.756158105785754,44.8252816497995]],"volatility_latest":44.66530221118912,"volatility_previous":42.90149353918443,"volatility_mean":43.78339787518678,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-18-90","country":"Ecuador","region":"TUNGURAHUA","name":"TISALEO / TUNGURAHUA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[19.632701421800945,14.094350611531741,7.638888888888893],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-18-90|EC-M-18-90-2023||2754","EC-M-18-90|EC-M-18-90-2019||1668","EC-M-18-90|EC-M-18-90-2014||388"],"all_keys":["EC-M-18-90|EC-M-18-90-2023||2754","EC-M-18-90|EC-M-18-90-2019||1668","EC-M-18-90|EC-M-18-90-2014||388"],"shares":[[0.46232227488151656,0.26599526066350715],[0.4158415841584159,0.27489807804309846],[0.37251048218029353,0.2961215932914046]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":16.14092537285512,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,15.651658767772512,9.419431279620854,0,0,0,74.92890995260663],null,[0,29.61215932914046,0,0,0,37.251048218029354,33.13679245283019]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-18-135","country":"Ecuador","region":"TUNGURAHUA","name":"AMBATO / TUNGURAHUA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[2.400030041447806,18.874820941730974,2.2070810306104427],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-18-135|EC-M-18-135-2023||2755","EC-M-18-135|EC-M-18-135-2019||1669","EC-M-18-135|EC-M-18-135-2014||389"],"all_keys":["EC-M-18-135|EC-M-18-135-2023||2755","EC-M-18-135|EC-M-18-135-2019||1669","EC-M-18-135|EC-M-18-135-2014||389"],"shares":[[0.3215279831392374,0.2975276827247593],[0.4409823945289035,0.25223418511159373],[0.2939309056956116,0.2718600953895071]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":63.3841379477549,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,32.15279831392374,0,0,0,67.84720168607626],[0,0,2.367265837992699,1.58772699967654,1.3206413751675061,0,94.72436578716325],[0,29.393090569561156,4.700330582683524,0,0,27.186009538950714,38.720569308804606]],"volatility_latest":29.78553247593104,"volatility_previous":58.91216485320269,"volatility_mean":44.348848664566866,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-18-140","country":"Ecuador","region":"TUNGURAHUA","name":"PELILEO / TUNGURAHUA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[15.377515703114987,6.621625188039376,52.33262210945159],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-18-140|EC-M-18-140-2023||2756","EC-M-18-140|EC-M-18-140-2019||1670","EC-M-18-140|EC-M-18-140-2014||390"],"all_keys":["EC-M-18-140|EC-M-18-140-2023||2756","EC-M-18-140|EC-M-18-140-2019||1670","EC-M-18-140|EC-M-18-140-2014||390"],"shares":[[0.34651967696449176,0.19274451993334188],[0.20551054340080757,0.1392942915204138],[0.6425523326221095,0.11922611152759358]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":17.768704053870188,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,34.65196769644918,9.447506729906422,0,0,0,55.9005255736444],[0,0,8.899210894407643,0,20.551054340080757,0,70.5497347655116],[0,3.8607923418487977,64.25523326221095,0,0,11.922611152759357,19.9613632431809]],"volatility_latest":35.200263531947954,"volatility_previous":71.13942586241146,"volatility_mean":53.169844697179705,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-18-145","country":"Ecuador","region":"TUNGURAHUA","name":"PÍLLARO / TUNGURAHUA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[7.83899795932728,4.361525117711615,6.204867611660877],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-18-145|EC-M-18-145-2023||3290","EC-M-18-145|EC-M-18-145-2019||1671","EC-M-18-145|EC-M-18-145-2014||391"],"all_keys":["EC-M-18-145|EC-M-18-145-2023||3290","EC-M-18-145|EC-M-18-145-2019||1671","EC-M-18-145|EC-M-18-145-2014||391"],"shares":[[0.2628245725142495,0.18443459292097672],[0.20798668885191346,0.1643714376747973],[0.3528063271310129,0.29075765101440415]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":66.8382846396203,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0.5488705932024488,0,0,0,0,99.45112940679755],[0,0,6.443162105710341,0,10.535632102524161,0,83.02120579176551],[0,13.563596072288236,0,0,0,29.075765101440414,57.36063882627135]],"volatility_latest":16.978794208234493,"volatility_previous":42.63936117372866,"volatility_mean":29.809077690981574,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-18-150","country":"Ecuador","region":"TUNGURAHUA","name":"BAÑOS / TUNGURAHUA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[1.8601288287103976,9.37644341801386,8.59592554594753],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-18-150|EC-M-18-150-2023||3477","EC-M-18-150|EC-M-18-150-2019||1672","EC-M-18-150|EC-M-18-150-2014||392"],"all_keys":["EC-M-18-150|EC-M-18-150-2023||3477","EC-M-18-150|EC-M-18-150-2019||1672","EC-M-18-150|EC-M-18-150-2014||392"],"shares":[[0.2987380044695675,0.2801367161824635],[0.3781590234246124,0.28439458924447375],[0.3050710831012751,0.2191118276417998]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":76.05698561387425,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,4.2395162350466675,0,0,0,0,95.76048376495332],null,[0,30.50710831012751,0,0,0,21.91118276417998,47.58170892569251]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-18-155","country":"Ecuador","region":"TUNGURAHUA","name":"PATATE / TUNGURAHUA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[2.1612275772638867,2.866997197671914,4.633620689655174],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-18-155|EC-M-18-155-2023||2757","EC-M-18-155|EC-M-18-155-2019||1673","EC-M-18-155|EC-M-18-155-2014||393"],"all_keys":["EC-M-18-155|EC-M-18-155-2023||2757","EC-M-18-155|EC-M-18-155-2019||1673","EC-M-18-155|EC-M-18-155-2014||393"],"shares":[[0.3167279014480225,0.29511562567538363],[0.26384996766544516,0.235179995688726],[0.2885536398467433,0.24221743295019155]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":86.89901112687288,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,14.469418629781716,9.67149340825589,0,0,0,75.8590879619624],[0,0,8.708773442552275,0,0,0,91.29122655744773],[0,20.246647509578544,28.85536398467433,0,0,11.458333333333334,39.43965517241379]],"volatility_latest":15.432138595485329,"volatility_previous":51.851571385033935,"volatility_mean":33.64185499025963,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-18-160","country":"Ecuador","region":"TUNGURAHUA","name":"QUERO / TUNGURAHUA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[8.985486624928853,2.671118530884808,6.167298614872706],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-18-160|EC-M-18-160-2023||2758","EC-M-18-160|EC-M-18-160-2019||1674","EC-M-18-160|EC-M-18-160-2014||394"],"all_keys":["EC-M-18-160|EC-M-18-160-2023||2758","EC-M-18-160|EC-M-18-160-2019||1674","EC-M-18-160|EC-M-18-160-2014||394"],"shares":[[0.28912919749573135,0.1992743312464428],[0.2042534659214633,0.1775422806126152],[0.3601330960303335,0.29846010988160643]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":65.95321302144987,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,19.358281161070007,18.02788844621514,0,0,0,62.61383039271486],[0,0,0,0,20.42534659214633,0,79.57465340785367],[0,5.7803915499497025,0,0,0,18.710825659676544,75.50878279037374]],"volatility_latest":37.38616960728515,"volatility_previous":24.491217209626253,"volatility_mean":30.9386934084557,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-18-845","country":"Ecuador","region":"TUNGURAHUA","name":"CEVALLOS / TUNGURAHUA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[0.2137404580152662,7.301636307502317,22.730318257956448],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-18-845|EC-M-18-845-2023||2759","EC-M-18-845|EC-M-18-845-2019||1675","EC-M-18-845|EC-M-18-845-2014||395"],"all_keys":["EC-M-18-845|EC-M-18-845-2023||2759","EC-M-18-845|EC-M-18-845-2019||1675","EC-M-18-845|EC-M-18-845-2014||395"],"shares":[[0.25267175572519085,0.2505343511450382],[0.328959555418339,0.2559431923433158],[0.5619765494137353,0.33467336683417087]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":77.0411650357225,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,1.3893129770992367,0,0,0,98.61068702290078],null,[0,0,0,0,0,33.46733668341709,66.53266331658291]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-18-850","country":"Ecuador","region":"TUNGURAHUA","name":"MOCHA / TUNGURAHUA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[72.06651718983558,28.317929759704253,10.418326693227094],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-18-850|EC-M-18-850-2023||2760","EC-M-18-850|EC-M-18-850-2019||1676","EC-M-18-850|EC-M-18-850-2014||396"],"all_keys":["EC-M-18-850|EC-M-18-850-2023||2760","EC-M-18-850|EC-M-18-850-2019||1676","EC-M-18-850|EC-M-18-850-2014||396"],"shares":[[0.8023168908819133,0.08165171898355755],[0.4979667282809612,0.21478743068391867],[0.40438247011952194,0.30019920318725096]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-19-130|EC-M-19-130-2023||3165","EC-M-19-130|EC-M-19-130-2019||1677","EC-M-19-130|EC-M-19-130-2014||397"],"all_keys":["EC-M-19-130|EC-M-19-130-2023||3165","EC-M-19-130|EC-M-19-130-2019||1677","EC-M-19-130|EC-M-19-130-2014||397"],"shares":[[0.4310494362532524,0.2753686036426713],[0.4723496739917894,0.2709490461241246],[0.37092808850645365,0.28211432083589427]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":18.64496765314797,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.26019080659150046,0,0,0,0,0,99.7398091934085],[0,0,27.09490461241246,0,0,0,72.90509538758755],[0,0,0,0,0,17.055931161647205,82.9440688383528]],"volatility_latest":27.094904612412456,"volatility_previous":27.09490461241246,"volatility_mean":27.094904612412456,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-19-655","country":"Ecuador","region":"ZAMORA CHINCHIPE","name":"ZAMORA / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[3.088983490810925,2.7535110029857357,1.0972356935014567],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-19-655|EC-M-19-655-2023||3415","EC-M-19-655|EC-M-19-655-2019||1678","EC-M-19-655|EC-M-19-655-2014||398"],"all_keys":["EC-M-19-655|EC-M-19-655-2023||3415","EC-M-19-655|EC-M-19-655-2019||1678","EC-M-19-655|EC-M-19-655-2014||398"],"shares":[[0.320164053576991,0.28927421866888176],[0.28309189428287074,0.25555678425301337],[0.2749757516973812,0.2640033947623666]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":86.05416517633789,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,28.309189428287073,0,0,71.69081057171293],[0,0,0,27.49757516973812,6.928952473326867,0,65.57347235693503]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":6.928952473326861,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-19-660","country":"Ecuador","region":"ZAMORA CHINCHIPE","name":"CHINCHIPE / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[18.607068607068605,1.8092609628948182,11.68050892383814],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-19-660|EC-M-19-660-2023||3166","EC-M-19-660|EC-M-19-660-2019||1679","EC-M-19-660|EC-M-19-660-2014||399"],"all_keys":["EC-M-19-660|EC-M-19-660-2023||3166","EC-M-19-660|EC-M-19-660-2019||1679","EC-M-19-660|EC-M-19-660-2014||399"],"shares":[[0.4771309771309771,0.2910602910602911],[0.3673719717877952,0.349279362158847],[0.466160098957413,0.3493550097190316]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":35.62464827253289,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[29.106029106029105,0,0,0,0,0,70.89397089397089],[0,0,34.9279362158847,0,0,0,65.0720637841153],[0,0,46.6160098957413,0,0,0,53.3839901042587]],"volatility_latest":34.9279362158847,"volatility_previous":11.6880736798566,"volatility_mean":23.30800494787065,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-19-661","country":"Ecuador","region":"ZAMORA CHINCHIPE","name":"PALANDA / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[9.417520256841463,2.9904111815374605,18.373772920911286],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-19-661|EC-M-19-661-2023||3548","EC-M-19-661|EC-M-19-661-2019||1680","EC-M-19-661|EC-M-19-661-2014||400"],"all_keys":["EC-M-19-661|EC-M-19-661-2023||3548","EC-M-19-661|EC-M-19-661-2019||1680","EC-M-19-661|EC-M-19-661-2014||400"],"shares":[[0.44870814860113134,0.35453294603271673],[0.46188850967007966,0.43198439785470505],[0.5382478236710502,0.3545100944619374]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":58.07493599671377,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,9.930115390866245,0,0,0,90.06988460913375],null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-19-665","country":"Ecuador","region":"ZAMORA CHINCHIPE","name":"YACUAMBI / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[15.231045311799008,6.059923406172565,10.448548812664907],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-19-665|EC-M-19-665-2023||3549","EC-M-19-665|EC-M-19-665-2019||1681","EC-M-19-665|EC-M-19-665-2014||401"],"all_keys":["EC-M-19-665|EC-M-19-665-2023||3549","EC-M-19-665|EC-M-19-665-2019||1681","EC-M-19-665|EC-M-19-665-2014||401"],"shares":[[0.5740242261103634,0.4217137729923733],[0.40279342194187884,0.34219418788015316],[0.3849604221635884,0.2804749340369393]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":39.992704549011684,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,40.27934219418788,0,0,0,59.720657805812124],[0,0,38.49604221635884,0,0,0,61.503957783641155]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":1.7832999778290386,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-19-670","country":"Ecuador","region":"ZAMORA CHINCHIPE","name":"YANZATZA / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[2.8973872427382865,6.643192488262912,19.105037513397644],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-19-670|EC-M-19-670-2023||2761","EC-M-19-670|EC-M-19-670-2019||1682","EC-M-19-670|EC-M-19-670-2014||402"],"all_keys":["EC-M-19-670|EC-M-19-670-2023||2761","EC-M-19-670|EC-M-19-670-2019||1682","EC-M-19-670|EC-M-19-670-2014||402"],"shares":[[0.2998102466793169,0.270836374251934],[0.3269953051643193,0.2605633802816902],[0.4117541979278314,0.22070382279385495]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":71.79053078269195,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.430010217486498,0,5.583126550868486,0,0,0,89.98686323164502],[0,0,32.69953051643193,23.302034428794993,0,0,43.99843505477308],[0,13.674526616648803,0,41.17541979278314,1.625580564487317,0,43.52447302608074]],"volatility_latest":50.41843839435843,"volatility_previous":33.17349254512427,"volatility_mean":41.79596546974135,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-19-775","country":"Ecuador","region":"ZAMORA CHINCHIPE","name":"EL PANGUI / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[16.671042268311894,5.6303012576776865,1.9829503335804333],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-19-775|EC-M-19-775-2023||3550","EC-M-19-775|EC-M-19-775-2019||1683","EC-M-19-775|EC-M-19-775-2014||403"],"all_keys":["EC-M-19-775|EC-M-19-775-2023||3550","EC-M-19-775|EC-M-19-775-2019||1683","EC-M-19-775|EC-M-19-775-2014||403"],"shares":[[0.43961669729587816,0.27290627461275924],[0.4214682655747295,0.3651652529979526],[0.3526686434395849,0.3328391401037806]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":40.54994614175757,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,42.14682655747295,0,0,0,57.85317344252706],[0,14.121571534469977,33.283914010378055,0,0,0,52.594514455151966]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":14.121571534469982,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-19-980","country":"Ecuador","region":"ZAMORA CHINCHIPE","name":"CENTINELA DEL CÓNDOR / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[2.21725358673374,0.7201061209020274,5.2069425901201605],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-19-980|EC-M-19-980-2023||2762","EC-M-19-980|EC-M-19-980-2019||1684","EC-M-19-980|EC-M-19-980-2014||404"],"all_keys":["EC-M-19-980|EC-M-19-980-2023||2762","EC-M-19-980|EC-M-19-980-2019||1684","EC-M-19-980|EC-M-19-980-2014||404"],"shares":[[0.36500838457238677,0.3428358487050494],[0.24199355694523406,0.23479249573621377],[0.308411214953271,0.2563417890520694]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":89.66460876338566,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-19-981|EC-M-19-981-2023||2763","EC-M-19-981|EC-M-19-981-2019||1685","EC-M-19-981|EC-M-19-981-2014||405"],"all_keys":["EC-M-19-981|EC-M-19-981-2023||2763","EC-M-19-981|EC-M-19-981-2019||1685","EC-M-19-981|EC-M-19-981-2014||405"],"shares":[[0.47757909215955985,0.33287482806052265],[0.3763407906834202,0.2923689855960772],[0.330498177399757,0.31470230862697446]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":43.20315656854829,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,14.497936726272352,0,0,0,85.50206327372766],[0,0,22.52528348145878,10.60373889059148,0,0,66.87097762794974],[0,31.47023086269745,20.65613608748481,33.0498177399757,0,0,14.823815309842042]],"volatility_latest":18.63108564577791,"volatility_previous":53.91630971208167,"volatility_mean":36.27369767892979,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-20-800","country":"Ecuador","region":"GALÁPAGOS","name":"SAN CRISTÓBAL / GALÁPAGOS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[4.348685510970547,9.6264674493063,0.387155545433842],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-20-800|EC-M-20-800-2023||3551","EC-M-20-800|EC-M-20-800-2019||1686","EC-M-20-800|EC-M-20-800-2014||406"],"all_keys":["EC-M-20-800|EC-M-20-800-2023||3551","EC-M-20-800|EC-M-20-800-2019||1686","EC-M-20-800|EC-M-20-800-2014||406"],"shares":[[0.38485866772089344,0.341371812611188],[0.32059765208110996,0.22433297758804696],[0.3279435208380779,0.32407196538373945]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":72.320664520412,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[8.260405549626467,0,0,32.059765208110996,0,22.433297758804695,37.246531483457844],[0,32.407196538373945,0,0,0,32.79435208380779,34.79845137781827]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":42.76825086337704,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-20-805","country":"Ecuador","region":"GALÁPAGOS","name":"SANTA CRUZ / GALÁPAGOS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[7.11835334476844,7.022677395757132,21.057822709900137],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-20-805|EC-M-20-805-2023||2764","EC-M-20-805|EC-M-20-805-2019||1687","EC-M-20-805|EC-M-20-805-2014||407"],"all_keys":["EC-M-20-805|EC-M-20-805-2023||2764","EC-M-20-805|EC-M-20-805-2019||1687","EC-M-20-805|EC-M-20-805-2014||407"],"shares":[[0.2981346483704974,0.22695111492281303],[0.26688612533528405,0.19665935137771273],[0.4278140796449266,0.21723585254592528]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":57.582012517108915,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,22.695111492281303,0,0,0,77.3048885077187],[0,0,6.461838575957084,4.584247744452573,0,5.084125822970007,83.86978785662033],null],"volatility_latest":16.233272916324214,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-20-810","country":"Ecuador","region":"GALÁPAGOS","name":"ISABELA / GALÁPAGOS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[0.8919202518363036,5.915813424345849,0.380469245402665],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-20-810|EC-M-20-810-2023||3167","EC-M-20-810|EC-M-20-810-2019||1688","EC-M-20-810|EC-M-20-810-2014||408"],"all_keys":["EC-M-20-810|EC-M-20-810-2023||3167","EC-M-20-810|EC-M-20-810-2019||1688","EC-M-20-810|EC-M-20-810-2014||408"],"shares":[[0.270199370409234,0.26128016789087094],[0.41353811149032993,0.3543799772468714],[0.3963221306277742,0.39251743817374757]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":88.26028448527097,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[26.128016789087095,0,0,0,0,0,73.8719832109129],[35.43799772468714,0,0,0,0,41.35381114903299,23.208191126279864],[0,39.632213062777424,0,0,0,39.25174381737476,21.116043119847813]],"volatility_latest":50.66379208463304,"volatility_previous":39.632213062777424,"volatility_mean":45.14800257370523,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-21-625","country":"Ecuador","region":"SUCUMBÍOS","name":"LAGO AGRIO / SUCUMBÍOS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[16.1959838815734,9.016030956329466,11.820248653298652],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-21-625|EC-M-21-625-2023||3332","EC-M-21-625|EC-M-21-625-2019||1689","EC-M-21-625|EC-M-21-625-2014||409"],"all_keys":["EC-M-21-625|EC-M-21-625-2023||3332","EC-M-21-625|EC-M-21-625-2019||1689","EC-M-21-625|EC-M-21-625-2014||409"],"shares":[[0.40085313011077206,0.23889329129503803],[0.4209323751612309,0.33077206559793626],[0.4187370706429347,0.30053458410994816]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":31.977877594136285,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[3.1767090473558137,0,0,0,0,0,96.82329095264421],[0,6.054523482784753,4.714990885443336,9.933842656125186,4.448722937959568,0,74.84792003768716]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":25.152079962312854,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-21-626","country":"Ecuador","region":"SUCUMBÍOS","name":"CUYABENO / SUCUMBÍOS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[7.967849030228898,8.577036310107946,21.82440136830102],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-21-626|EC-M-21-626-2023||3168","EC-M-21-626|EC-M-21-626-2019||1690","EC-M-21-626|EC-M-21-626-2014||410"],"all_keys":["EC-M-21-626|EC-M-21-626-2023||3168","EC-M-21-626|EC-M-21-626-2019||1690","EC-M-21-626|EC-M-21-626-2014||410"],"shares":[[0.39070417613139957,0.3110256858291106],[0.3273797841020608,0.24160942100098137],[0.4084378563283922,0.190193842645382]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":52.31869776000087,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.4462694391053645,0,0,0,0,0,97.55373056089465],[4.906771344455349,0,0,0,24.160942100098136,0,70.93228655544652],[0,40.84378563283922,0,0,17.377423033067274,0,41.778791334093505]],"volatility_latest":26.621444005448122,"volatility_previous":40.84378563283923,"volatility_mean":33.73261481914368,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-21-640","country":"Ecuador","region":"SUCUMBÍOS","name":"SUCUMBÍOS / SUCUMBÍOS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[12.57091669154972,35.420743639921724,9.296740994854204],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-21-640|EC-M-21-640-2023||3552","EC-M-21-640|EC-M-21-640-2019||1691","EC-M-21-640|EC-M-21-640-2014||411"],"all_keys":["EC-M-21-640|EC-M-21-640-2023||3552","EC-M-21-640|EC-M-21-640-2019||1691","EC-M-21-640|EC-M-21-640-2014||411"],"shares":[[0.5601672140937594,0.43445804717826214],[0.601761252446184,0.24755381604696672],[0.546483704974271,0.453516295025729]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":4.507763968041156,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,15.068493150684931,0,84.93150684931507],[0,54.6483704974271,0,0,0,0,45.3516295025729]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":54.6483704974271,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-21-650","country":"Ecuador","region":"SUCUMBÍOS","name":"PUTUMAYO / SUCUMBÍOS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[3.8557657979293154,6.339712918660286,17.774200965739254],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-21-650|EC-M-21-650-2023||3713","EC-M-21-650|EC-M-21-650-2019||1692","EC-M-21-650|EC-M-21-650-2014||412"],"all_keys":["EC-M-21-650|EC-M-21-650-2023||3713","EC-M-21-650|EC-M-21-650-2019||1692","EC-M-21-650|EC-M-21-650-2014||412"],"shares":[[0.4516244198500536,0.4130667618707604],[0.2759170653907496,0.21251993620414672],[0.41480800183950334,0.23706599218211083]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":70.03603274535199,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,12.5,0,87.5],[0,0,41.480800183950336,0,18.532996091055416,0,39.986203724994255]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":47.513796275005745,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-21-720","country":"Ecuador","region":"SUCUMBÍOS","name":"SHUSHUFINDI / SUCUMBÍOS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[21.187498000575836,7.4928795735047125,3.2306163021868777],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-21-720|EC-M-21-720-2023||3714","EC-M-21-720|EC-M-21-720-2019||1693","EC-M-21-720|EC-M-21-720-2014||413"],"all_keys":["EC-M-21-720|EC-M-21-720-2023||3714","EC-M-21-720|EC-M-21-720-2019||1693","EC-M-21-720|EC-M-21-720-2014||413"],"shares":[[0.5367734092581337,0.32489842925237533],[0.3608413057766742,0.2859125100416271],[0.2940538586661847,0.26174769564431594]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":23.582878486921977,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[1.1465712407799606,0,0,0,36.08413057766742,0,62.769298181552614],[0,5.625338875835894,4.066510030724743,29.40538586661847,14.291523585758178,0,46.61124164106271]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":39.09723477317911,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-21-745","country":"Ecuador","region":"SUCUMBÍOS","name":"CASCALES / SUCUMBÍOS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[23.283059520603285,11.441749739622082,11.602399314481573],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-21-745|EC-M-21-745-2023||3715","EC-M-21-745|EC-M-21-745-2019||1694","EC-M-21-745|EC-M-21-745-2014||414"],"all_keys":["EC-M-21-745|EC-M-21-745-2023||3715","EC-M-21-745|EC-M-21-745-2019||1694","EC-M-21-745|EC-M-21-745-2014||414"],"shares":[[0.5189873417721519,0.28615674656611906],[0.3841690224668948,0.269751525070674],[0.3494430162810625,0.2334190231362468]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":7.186997171516241,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,38.41690224668948,0,61.58309775331052],[0,23.34190231362468,34.94430162810625,1.868037703513282,0,0,39.84575835475579]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":60.15424164524421,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-21-865","country":"Ecuador","region":"SUCUMBÍOS","name":"GONZALO PIZARRO / SUCUMBÍOS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[8.01879642261634,14.208242950108461,8.764241893076246],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-21-865|EC-M-21-865-2023||2765","EC-M-21-865|EC-M-21-865-2019||1695","EC-M-21-865|EC-M-21-865-2014||415"],"all_keys":["EC-M-21-865|EC-M-21-865-2023||2765","EC-M-21-865|EC-M-21-865-2019||1695","EC-M-21-865|EC-M-21-865-2014||415"],"shares":[[0.3685008337122935,0.28831286948613005],[0.29981406879454603,0.15773163929346143],[0.31971954425942156,0.2320771253286591]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":50.249125360450165,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,10.732150977717144,0,0,0,89.26784902228286],[15.773163929346142,0,0,0,12.627827703749613,0,71.59900836690426],[0,6.02979842243646,21.56003505696757,4.329535495179667,12.900964066608239,0,55.17966695880806]],"volatility_latest":28.40099163309575,"volatility_previous":32.19250533744233,"volatility_mean":30.29674848526904,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-22-630","country":"Ecuador","region":"ORELLANA","name":"AGUARICO / ORELLANA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[14.218272702027214,33.451536643026,13.663133097762078],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-22-630|EC-M-22-630-2023||3637","EC-M-22-630|EC-M-22-630-2019||1696","EC-M-22-630|EC-M-22-630-2014||416"],"all_keys":["EC-M-22-630|EC-M-22-630-2023||3637","EC-M-22-630|EC-M-22-630-2019||1696","EC-M-22-630|EC-M-22-630-2014||416"],"shares":[[0.5004165509580671,0.358233823937795],[0.6176122931442081,0.283096926713948],[0.49352179034157834,0.3568904593639576]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":0.33631038049831696,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,61.7612293144208,0,0,0,38.2387706855792],[0,0,35.68904593639576,0,0,49.352179034157835,14.958775029446407]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":49.352179034157835,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-22-645","country":"Ecuador","region":"ORELLANA","name":"FCO.DE ORELLANA / ORELLANA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[12.586562759206036,34.46067181306071,9.22677897331861],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-22-645|EC-M-22-645-2023||3139","EC-M-22-645|EC-M-22-645-2019||1697","EC-M-22-645|EC-M-22-645-2014||417"],"all_keys":["EC-M-22-645|EC-M-22-645-2023||3139","EC-M-22-645|EC-M-22-645-2019||1697","EC-M-22-645|EC-M-22-645-2014||417"],"shares":[[0.39956790956964566,0.27370228197758534],[0.5460254537867724,0.20141873565616525],[0.3942117562466295,0.3019439665134434]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":5.935914516131524,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,0,21.137104850928328,0,0,0,78.86289514907168]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-22-725","country":"Ecuador","region":"ORELLANA","name":"JOYA DE LOS SACHAS / ORELLANA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[1.972726965113523,15.115659716938062,23.347307320219283],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-22-725|EC-M-22-725-2023||2766","EC-M-22-725|EC-M-22-725-2019||1698","EC-M-22-725|EC-M-22-725-2014||418"],"all_keys":["EC-M-22-725|EC-M-22-725-2023||2766","EC-M-22-725|EC-M-22-725-2019||1698","EC-M-22-725|EC-M-22-725-2014||418"],"shares":[[0.31150813792169996,0.29178086827056476],[0.5040328717090246,0.3528762745396439],[0.5103422858985581,0.2768692126963652]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":59.73467586914269,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,29.178086827056475,0,0,0,70.82191317294352],[0,0,35.28762745396439,0,6.285192512555167,0,58.42718003348044],[0,0,51.03422858985581,0,0,17.26171281153545,31.704058598608746]],"volatility_latest":12.394733139463083,"volatility_previous":33.00831394742686,"volatility_mean":22.701523543444974,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-22-935","country":"Ecuador","region":"ORELLANA","name":"LORETO / ORELLANA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[3.2457201043721753,14.198975859546454,4.029406290712828],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-22-935|EC-M-22-935-2023||3169","EC-M-22-935|EC-M-22-935-2019||1699","EC-M-22-935|EC-M-22-935-2014||419"],"all_keys":["EC-M-22-935|EC-M-22-935-2023||3169","EC-M-22-935|EC-M-22-935-2019||1699","EC-M-22-935|EC-M-22-935-2014||419"],"shares":[[0.27690447400241835,0.24444727295869662],[0.38588149231894664,0.24389173372348208],[0.36301879769216455,0.32272473478503627]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":66.94967275220738,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[8.833450009546235,0,0,0,0,0,91.16654999045376],[3.035844915874177,0,20.504754937820042,0,0,0,76.45940014630578],[0,0,36.301879769216455,0,0,23.618090452261306,40.08002977852224]],"volatility_latest":20.50475493782004,"volatility_previous":39.41521528365772,"volatility_mean":29.95998511073888,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-23-85","country":"Ecuador","region":"STO. DGO. DE LOS TSÁCHILAS","name":"SANTO DOMINGO / STO. DGO. DE LOS TSÁCHILAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[40.330177797724154,10.65578473911182,6.498387583230873],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-23-85|EC-M-23-85-2023||2767","EC-M-23-85|EC-M-23-85-2019||1700","EC-M-23-85|EC-M-23-85-2014||420"],"all_keys":["EC-M-23-85|EC-M-23-85-2023||2767","EC-M-23-85|EC-M-23-85-2019||1700","EC-M-23-85|EC-M-23-85-2014||420"],"shares":[[0.6069449745613777,0.2036431965841362],[0.30859445692619386,0.20203660953507568],[0.4415469920887178,0.37656311625640904]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.612926091679704,0,2.6013245699761343,0,0,0,92.78574933834419],[0,0,0,0,2.9198465701182506,0,97.08015342988175],[2.0267730784400158,0,0,6.026030670718976,0,37.6563116256409,54.29088462520011]],"volatility_latest":7.214250661655823,"volatility_previous":45.70911537479989,"volatility_mean":26.46168301822786,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-23-982","country":"Ecuador","region":"STO. DGO. DE LOS TSÁCHILAS","name":"LA CONCORDIA / STO. DGO. DE LOS TSÁCHILAS","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[20.51918472230333,0.4317480928420707,14.51524842056002],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-23-982|EC-M-23-982-2023||2768","EC-M-23-982|EC-M-23-982-2019||1701","EC-M-23-982|EC-M-23-982-2014||421"],"all_keys":["EC-M-23-982|EC-M-23-982-2023||2768","EC-M-23-982|EC-M-23-982-2019||1701","EC-M-23-982|EC-M-23-982-2014||421"],"shares":[[0.5640658763067219,0.35887402908368865],[0.3806849537412758,0.3763674728128551],[0.4776148506356758,0.33246236643007565]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":30.537199483546896,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,1.3315423699118145,0,0,0,98.6684576300882],[0,0,0,0,1.379646161337445,6.459990261321214,92.16036357734136],[0,0,4.4146322439747285,0,0,47.761485063567584,47.82388269245768]],"volatility_latest":7.839636422658657,"volatility_previous":45.71612704622111,"volatility_mean":26.777881734439884,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-24-405","country":"Ecuador","region":"SANTA ELENA","name":"SALINAS / SANTA ELENA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[37.570404505888376,5.564939511527047,30.76138596622143],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-24-405|EC-M-24-405-2023||2769","EC-M-24-405|EC-M-24-405-2019||1702","EC-M-24-405|EC-M-24-405-2014||422"],"all_keys":["EC-M-24-405|EC-M-24-405-2023||2769","EC-M-24-405|EC-M-24-405-2019||1702","EC-M-24-405|EC-M-24-405-2014||422"],"shares":[[0.5790237241850145,0.20331967912613075],[0.35740698470668797,0.3017575895914175],[0.5008581449145586,0.19324428525234436]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.128605564089435,0,3.014592933947773,0,0,0,95.85680150196279],[0,0,0,4.062999315224834,0.6368409039032185,1.4357452636384387,93.86441451723351],[0,5.410044026565182,0,2.5420988483446507,0.679053801955078,0,91.3688033231351]],"volatility_latest":6.135585482766489,"volatility_previous":5.45225692461704,"volatility_mean":5.793921203691765,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-24-410","country":"Ecuador","region":"SANTA ELENA","name":"SANTA ELENA / SANTA ELENA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[10.294582818893296,5.827755466309682,12.267140668670265],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-24-410|EC-M-24-410-2023||3170","EC-M-24-410|EC-M-24-410-2019||1703","EC-M-24-410|EC-M-24-410-2014||423"],"all_keys":["EC-M-24-410|EC-M-24-410-2023||3170","EC-M-24-410|EC-M-24-410-2019||1703","EC-M-24-410|EC-M-24-410-2014||423"],"shares":[[0.32584716794383844,0.22290133975490548],[0.29796965640339135,0.23969210174029454],[0.5256627647258312,0.40299135803912856]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":54.241048009520455,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.5081170984561698,0,0,0,0,0,98.49188290154382],[0,0,0,5.112672913877733,0.31570727353859884,1.7793395805444,92.79228023203927],[0,2.5002046472466173,0,2.8100990492673628,1.3471635891618818,0,93.34253271432414]],"volatility_latest":7.207719767960723,"volatility_previous":4.0819134451547665,"volatility_mean":5.644816606557745,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-M-24-965","country":"Ecuador","region":"SANTA ELENA","name":"LA LIBERTAD / SANTA ELENA","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[10.04483090624624,1.5398463368373676,15.96520516650558],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-M-24-965|EC-M-24-965-2023||2563","EC-M-24-965|EC-M-24-965-2019||1704","EC-M-24-965|EC-M-24-965-2014||424"],"all_keys":["EC-M-24-965|EC-M-24-965-2023||2563","EC-M-24-965|EC-M-24-965-2019||1704","EC-M-24-965|EC-M-24-965-2014||424"],"shares":[[0.3329070886990011,0.2324587796365387],[0.24571639823833863,0.23031793486996496],[0.4327387751515684,0.2730867234865126]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":59.573135192752446,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.8785654110001203,0,0.6619328439042003,0,0,0,98.45950174509566],[0,0,0,10.587649082200148,1.3646446137525317,1.6041405471437298,86.44356575690357],[0,4.368684649855021,0,0,5.131359283015552,0,90.49995606712942]],"volatility_latest":13.556434243096414,"volatility_previous":12.191789629343885,"volatility_mean":12.87411193622015,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-C-1-990","country":"Ecuador","region":"AZUAY","name":"GUACHAPALA / AZUAY","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-C-1-990|EC-C-1-990-2023||3478","EC-C-1-990|EC-C-1-990-2019||1705","EC-C-1-990|EC-C-1-990-2014||425"],"all_keys":["EC-C-1-990|EC-C-1-990-2023||3478","EC-C-1-990|EC-C-1-990-2019||1705","EC-C-1-990|EC-C-1-990-2014||425"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-C-2-185|EC-C-2-185-2023||2770","EC-C-2-185|EC-C-2-185-2019||1706","EC-C-2-185|EC-C-2-185-2014||426"],"all_keys":["EC-C-2-185|EC-C-2-185-2023||2770","EC-C-2-185|EC-C-2-185-2019||1706","EC-C-2-185|EC-C-2-185-2014||426"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-C-6-900|EC-C-6-900-2023||2777","EC-C-6-900|EC-C-6-900-2019||1713","EC-C-6-900|EC-C-6-900-2014||433"],"all_keys":["EC-C-6-900|EC-C-6-900-2023||2777","EC-C-6-900|EC-C-6-900-2019||1713","EC-C-6-900|EC-C-6-900-2014||433"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-C-15-621|EC-C-15-621-2023||2795","EC-C-15-621|EC-C-15-621-2019||1740","EC-C-15-621|EC-C-15-621-2014||460"],"all_keys":["EC-C-15-621|EC-C-15-621-2023||2795","EC-C-15-621|EC-C-15-621-2019||1740","EC-C-15-621|EC-C-15-621-2014||460"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-C-17-895|EC-C-17-895-2023||2796","EC-C-17-895|EC-C-17-895-2019||1741","EC-C-17-895|EC-C-17-895-2014||461"],"all_keys":["EC-C-17-895|EC-C-17-895-2023||2796","EC-C-17-895|EC-C-17-895-2019||1741","EC-C-17-895|EC-C-17-895-2014||461"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-1-260-845|EC-J-1-260-845-2023||3778","EC-J-1-260-845|EC-J-1-260-845-2019||1747","EC-J-1-260-845|EC-J-1-260-845-2014||467"],"all_keys":["EC-J-1-260-845|EC-J-1-260-845-2023||3778","EC-J-1-260-845|EC-J-1-260-845-2019||1747","EC-J-1-260-845|EC-J-1-260-845-2014||467"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-1-260-2680|EC-J-1-260-2680-2023||3722","EC-J-1-260-2680|EC-J-1-260-2680-2019||1754","EC-J-1-260-2680|EC-J-1-260-2680-2014||474"],"all_keys":["EC-J-1-260-2680|EC-J-1-260-2680-2023||3722","EC-J-1-260-2680|EC-J-1-260-2680-2019||1754","EC-J-1-260-2680|EC-J-1-260-2680-2014||474"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-1-260-3460|EC-J-1-260-3460-2023||3725","EC-J-1-260-3460|EC-J-1-260-3460-2019||1757","EC-J-1-260-3460|EC-J-1-260-3460-2014||477"],"all_keys":["EC-J-1-260-3460|EC-J-1-260-3460-2023||3725","EC-J-1-260-3460|EC-J-1-260-3460-2019||1757","EC-J-1-260-3460|EC-J-1-260-3460-2014||477"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-1-265-1760|EC-J-1-265-1760-2023||3812","EC-J-1-265-1760|EC-J-1-265-1760-2019||1767","EC-J-1-265-1760|EC-J-1-265-1760-2014||487"],"all_keys":["EC-J-1-265-1760|EC-J-1-265-1760-2023||3812","EC-J-1-265-1760|EC-J-1-265-1760-2019||1767","EC-J-1-265-1760|EC-J-1-265-1760-2014||487"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-1-885-2550|EC-J-1-885-2550-2023||3846","EC-J-1-885-2550|EC-J-1-885-2550-2019||1798","EC-J-1-885-2550|EC-J-1-885-2550-2014||518"],"all_keys":["EC-J-1-885-2550|EC-J-1-885-2550-2023||3846","EC-J-1-885-2550|EC-J-1-885-2550-2019||1798","EC-J-1-885-2550|EC-J-1-885-2550-2014||518"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-1-960-1650|EC-J-1-960-1650-2023||3742","EC-J-1-960-1650|EC-J-1-960-1650-2019||1805","EC-J-1-960-1650|EC-J-1-960-1650-2014||525"],"all_keys":["EC-J-1-960-1650|EC-J-1-960-1650-2023||3742","EC-J-1-960-1650|EC-J-1-960-1650-2019||1805","EC-J-1-960-1650|EC-J-1-960-1650-2014||525"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-2-165-795|EC-J-2-165-795-2023||2799","EC-J-2-165-795|EC-J-2-165-795-2019||1806","EC-J-2-165-795|EC-J-2-165-795-2014||526"],"all_keys":["EC-J-2-165-795|EC-J-2-165-795-2023||2799","EC-J-2-165-795|EC-J-2-165-795-2019||1806","EC-J-2-165-795|EC-J-2-165-795-2014||526"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-2-165-3285|EC-J-2-165-3285-2023||2802","EC-J-2-165-3285|EC-J-2-165-3285-2019||1809","EC-J-2-165-3285|EC-J-2-165-3285-2014||529"],"all_keys":["EC-J-2-165-3285|EC-J-2-165-3285-2023||2802","EC-J-2-165-3285|EC-J-2-165-3285-2019||1809","EC-J-2-165-3285|EC-J-2-165-3285-2014||529"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-2-175-275|EC-J-2-175-275-2023||3299","EC-J-2-175-275|EC-J-2-175-275-2019||1818","EC-J-2-175-275|EC-J-2-175-275-2014||538"],"all_keys":["EC-J-2-175-275|EC-J-2-175-275-2023||3299","EC-J-2-175-275|EC-J-2-175-275-2019||1818","EC-J-2-175-275|EC-J-2-175-275-2014||538"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-2-175-345","country":"Ecuador","region":"BOLÍVAR","name":"BILOVAN / SAN MIGUEL / BOLÍVAR","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-2-175-345|EC-J-2-175-345-2023||2811","EC-J-2-175-345|EC-J-2-175-345-2019||1819","EC-J-2-175-345|EC-J-2-175-345-2014||539"],"all_keys":["EC-J-2-175-345|EC-J-2-175-345-2023||2811","EC-J-2-175-345|EC-J-2-175-345-2019||1819","EC-J-2-175-345|EC-J-2-175-345-2014||539"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-2-175-3595","country":"Ecuador","region":"BOLÍVAR","name":"SAN PABLO DE ATENAS / SAN MIGUEL / BOLÍVAR","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-2-175-3595|EC-J-2-175-3595-2023||2812","EC-J-2-175-3595|EC-J-2-175-3595-2019||1820","EC-J-2-175-3595|EC-J-2-175-3595-2014||540"],"all_keys":["EC-J-2-175-3595|EC-J-2-175-3595-2023||2812","EC-J-2-175-3595|EC-J-2-175-3595-2019||1820","EC-J-2-175-3595|EC-J-2-175-3595-2014||540"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-2-175-3775","country":"Ecuador","region":"BOLÍVAR","name":"SANTIAGO / SAN MIGUEL / BOLÍVAR","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The 10 July spending resolution lists 1,549 electors; the 11 August distribution lists 1,548. Both are retained.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-2-175-3775|EC-J-2-175-3775-2023||2813","EC-J-2-175-3775|EC-J-2-175-3775-2019||1821","EC-J-2-175-3775|EC-J-2-175-3775-2014||541"],"all_keys":["EC-J-2-175-3775|EC-J-2-175-3775-2023||2813","EC-J-2-175-3775|EC-J-2-175-3775-2019||1821","EC-J-2-175-3775|EC-J-2-175-3775-2014||541"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-2-175-3900","country":"Ecuador","region":"BOLÍVAR","name":"SAN VICENTE / SAN MIGUEL / BOLÍVAR","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-2-175-3900|EC-J-2-175-3900-2023||2814","EC-J-2-175-3900|EC-J-2-175-3900-2019||1822","EC-J-2-175-3900|EC-J-2-175-3900-2014||542"],"all_keys":["EC-J-2-175-3900|EC-J-2-175-3900-2023||2814","EC-J-2-175-3900|EC-J-2-175-3900-2019||1822","EC-J-2-175-3900|EC-J-2-175-3900-2014||542"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-2-175-4515","country":"Ecuador","region":"BOLÍVAR","name":"REGULO DE MORA / SAN MIGUEL / BOLÍVAR","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-2-175-4515|EC-J-2-175-4515-2023||2815","EC-J-2-175-4515|EC-J-2-175-4515-2019||1823","EC-J-2-175-4515|EC-J-2-175-4515-2014||543"],"all_keys":["EC-J-2-175-4515|EC-J-2-175-4515-2023||2815","EC-J-2-175-4515|EC-J-2-175-4515-2019||1823","EC-J-2-175-4515|EC-J-2-175-4515-2014||543"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-2-180-3500","country":"Ecuador","region":"BOLÍVAR","name":"SAN JOSÉ DE TAMBO / CHILLANES / BOLÍVAR","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-2-180-3500|EC-J-2-180-3500-2023||2816","EC-J-2-180-3500|EC-J-2-180-3500-2019||1824","EC-J-2-180-3500|EC-J-2-180-3500-2014||544"],"all_keys":["EC-J-2-180-3500|EC-J-2-180-3500-2023||2816","EC-J-2-180-3500|EC-J-2-180-3500-2019||1824","EC-J-2-180-3500|EC-J-2-180-3500-2014||544"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-3-235-585","country":"Ecuador","region":"CAÑAR","name":"COJITAMBO / AZOGUES / CAÑAR","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-3-235-585|EC-J-3-235-585-2023||2817","EC-J-3-235-585|EC-J-3-235-585-2019||1825","EC-J-3-235-585|EC-J-3-235-585-2014||545"],"all_keys":["EC-J-3-235-585|EC-J-3-235-585-2023||2817","EC-J-3-235-585|EC-J-3-235-585-2019||1825","EC-J-3-235-585|EC-J-3-235-585-2014||545"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-3-235-1445","country":"Ecuador","region":"CAÑAR","name":"GUAPÁN / AZOGUES / CAÑAR","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The 10 July spending resolution lists 6,161 electors; the 11 August distribution lists 6,158. Both are retained.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-3-235-1445|EC-J-3-235-1445-2023||2818","EC-J-3-235-1445|EC-J-3-235-1445-2019||1826","EC-J-3-235-1445|EC-J-3-235-1445-2014||546"],"all_keys":["EC-J-3-235-1445|EC-J-3-235-1445-2023||2818","EC-J-3-235-1445|EC-J-3-235-1445-2019||1826","EC-J-3-235-1445|EC-J-3-235-1445-2014||546"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-3-235-1825","country":"Ecuador","region":"CAÑAR","name":"JAVIER LOYOLA / CHUQUIPATA / AZOGUES / CAÑAR","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The 10 July spending resolution lists 5,525 electors; the 11 August distribution lists 5,522. Both are retained.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-3-235-1825|EC-J-3-235-1825-2023||2819","EC-J-3-235-1825|EC-J-3-235-1825-2019||1827","EC-J-3-235-1825|EC-J-3-235-1825-2014||547"],"all_keys":["EC-J-3-235-1825|EC-J-3-235-1825-2023||2819","EC-J-3-235-1825|EC-J-3-235-1825-2019||1827","EC-J-3-235-1825|EC-J-3-235-1825-2014||547"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-3-235-2220","country":"Ecuador","region":"CAÑAR","name":"LUIS CORDERO / AZOGUES / CAÑAR","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-3-235-2220|EC-J-3-235-2220-2023||2820","EC-J-3-235-2220|EC-J-3-235-2220-2019||1828","EC-J-3-235-2220|EC-J-3-235-2220-2014||548"],"all_keys":["EC-J-3-235-2220|EC-J-3-235-2220-2023||2820","EC-J-3-235-2220|EC-J-3-235-2220-2019||1828","EC-J-3-235-2220|EC-J-3-235-2220-2014||548"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-3-235-2885","country":"Ecuador","region":"CAÑAR","name":"PINDILIG / AZOGUES / CAÑAR","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-3-235-2885|EC-J-3-235-2885-2023||2821","EC-J-3-235-2885|EC-J-3-235-2885-2019||1829","EC-J-3-235-2885|EC-J-3-235-2885-2014||549"],"all_keys":["EC-J-3-235-2885|EC-J-3-235-2885-2023||2821","EC-J-3-235-2885|EC-J-3-235-2885-2019||1829","EC-J-3-235-2885|EC-J-3-235-2885-2014||549"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-3-235-3210","country":"Ecuador","region":"CAÑAR","name":"RIVERA / AZOGUES / CAÑAR","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-3-235-3210|EC-J-3-235-3210-2023||2822","EC-J-3-235-3210|EC-J-3-235-3210-2019||1830","EC-J-3-235-3210|EC-J-3-235-3210-2014||550"],"all_keys":["EC-J-3-235-3210|EC-J-3-235-3210-2023||2822","EC-J-3-235-3210|EC-J-3-235-3210-2019||1830","EC-J-3-235-3210|EC-J-3-235-3210-2014||550"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-3-235-3945|EC-J-3-235-3945-2023||2823","EC-J-3-235-3945|EC-J-3-235-3945-2019||1832","EC-J-3-235-3945|EC-J-3-235-3945-2014||552"],"all_keys":["EC-J-3-235-3945|EC-J-3-235-3945-2023||2823","EC-J-3-235-3945|EC-J-3-235-3945-2019||1832","EC-J-3-235-3945|EC-J-3-235-3945-2014||552"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-3-245-1085|EC-J-3-245-1085-2023||2835","EC-J-3-245-1085|EC-J-3-245-1085-2019||1844","EC-J-3-245-1085|EC-J-3-245-1085-2014||564"],"all_keys":["EC-J-3-245-1085|EC-J-3-245-1085-2023||2835","EC-J-3-245-1085|EC-J-3-245-1085-2019||1844","EC-J-3-245-1085|EC-J-3-245-1085-2014||564"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-3-245-2545|EC-J-3-245-2545-2023||2836","EC-J-3-245-2545|EC-J-3-245-2545-2019||1845","EC-J-3-245-2545|EC-J-3-245-2545-2014||565"],"all_keys":["EC-J-3-245-2545|EC-J-3-245-2545-2023||2836","EC-J-3-245-2545|EC-J-3-245-2545-2019||1845","EC-J-3-245-2545|EC-J-3-245-2545-2014||565"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-3-245-3410|EC-J-3-245-3410-2023||2837","EC-J-3-245-3410|EC-J-3-245-3410-2019||1846","EC-J-3-245-3410|EC-J-3-245-3410-2014||566"],"all_keys":["EC-J-3-245-3410|EC-J-3-245-3410-2023||2837","EC-J-3-245-3410|EC-J-3-245-3410-2019||1846","EC-J-3-245-3410|EC-J-3-245-3410-2014||566"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-4-10-2065|EC-J-4-10-2065-2023||3413","EC-J-4-10-2065|EC-J-4-10-2065-2019||1864","EC-J-4-10-2065|EC-J-4-10-2065-2014||584"],"all_keys":["EC-J-4-10-2065|EC-J-4-10-2065-2023||3413","EC-J-4-10-2065|EC-J-4-10-2065-2019||1864","EC-J-4-10-2065|EC-J-4-10-2065-2014||584"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-4-25-1055|EC-J-4-25-1055-2023||3436","EC-J-4-25-1055|EC-J-4-25-1055-2019||1871","EC-J-4-25-1055|EC-J-4-25-1055-2014||591"],"all_keys":["EC-J-4-25-1055|EC-J-4-25-1055-2023||3436","EC-J-4-25-1055|EC-J-4-25-1055-2019||1871","EC-J-4-25-1055|EC-J-4-25-1055-2014||591"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-5-110-135|EC-J-5-110-135-2023||2856","EC-J-5-110-135|EC-J-5-110-135-2019||1893","EC-J-5-110-135|EC-J-5-110-135-2014||613"],"all_keys":["EC-J-5-110-135|EC-J-5-110-135-2023||2856","EC-J-5-110-135|EC-J-5-110-135-2019||1893","EC-J-5-110-135|EC-J-5-110-135-2014||613"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-5-115-990|EC-J-5-115-990-2023||2863","EC-J-5-115-990|EC-J-5-115-990-2019||1900","EC-J-5-115-990|EC-J-5-115-990-2014||620"],"all_keys":["EC-J-5-115-990|EC-J-5-115-990-2023||2863","EC-J-5-115-990|EC-J-5-115-990-2019||1900","EC-J-5-115-990|EC-J-5-115-990-2014||620"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-6-200-45|EC-J-6-200-45-2023||2882","EC-J-6-200-45|EC-J-6-200-45-2019||1922","EC-J-6-200-45|EC-J-6-200-45-2014||642"],"all_keys":["EC-J-6-200-45|EC-J-6-200-45-2023||2882","EC-J-6-200-45|EC-J-6-200-45-2019||1922","EC-J-6-200-45|EC-J-6-200-45-2014||642"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-6-200-410|EC-J-6-200-410-2023||2883","EC-J-6-200-410|EC-J-6-200-410-2019||1923","EC-J-6-200-410|EC-J-6-200-410-2014||643"],"all_keys":["EC-J-6-200-410|EC-J-6-200-410-2023||2883","EC-J-6-200-410|EC-J-6-200-410-2019||1923","EC-J-6-200-410|EC-J-6-200-410-2014||643"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-6-205-1865|EC-J-6-205-1865-2023||2892","EC-J-6-205-1865|EC-J-6-205-1865-2019||1932","EC-J-6-205-1865|EC-J-6-205-1865-2014||652"],"all_keys":["EC-J-6-205-1865|EC-J-6-205-1865-2023||2892","EC-J-6-205-1865|EC-J-6-205-1865-2019||1932","EC-J-6-205-1865|EC-J-6-205-1865-2014||652"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-6-210-2730|EC-J-6-210-2730-2023||2894","EC-J-6-210-2730|EC-J-6-210-2730-2019||1935","EC-J-6-210-2730|EC-J-6-210-2730-2014||655"],"all_keys":["EC-J-6-210-2730|EC-J-6-210-2730-2023||2894","EC-J-6-210-2730|EC-J-6-210-2730-2019||1935","EC-J-6-210-2730|EC-J-6-210-2730-2014||655"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-6-215-20|EC-J-6-215-20-2023||2895","EC-J-6-215-20|EC-J-6-215-20-2019||1936","EC-J-6-215-20|EC-J-6-215-20-2014||656"],"all_keys":["EC-J-6-215-20|EC-J-6-215-20-2023||2895","EC-J-6-215-20|EC-J-6-215-20-2019||1936","EC-J-6-215-20|EC-J-6-215-20-2014||656"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-6-215-2485|EC-J-6-215-2485-2023||2898","EC-J-6-215-2485|EC-J-6-215-2485-2019||1939","EC-J-6-215-2485|EC-J-6-215-2485-2014||659"],"all_keys":["EC-J-6-215-2485|EC-J-6-215-2485-2023||2898","EC-J-6-215-2485|EC-J-6-215-2485-2019||1939","EC-J-6-215-2485|EC-J-6-215-2485-2014||659"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-6-220-2260|EC-J-6-220-2260-2023||3634","EC-J-6-220-2260|EC-J-6-220-2260-2019||1948","EC-J-6-220-2260|EC-J-6-220-2260-2014||668"],"all_keys":["EC-J-6-220-2260|EC-J-6-220-2260-2023||3634","EC-J-6-220-2260|EC-J-6-220-2260-2019||1948","EC-J-6-220-2260|EC-J-6-220-2260-2014||668"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-6-225-925|EC-J-6-225-925-2023||2904","EC-J-6-225-925|EC-J-6-225-925-2019||1949","EC-J-6-225-925|EC-J-6-225-925-2014||669"],"all_keys":["EC-J-6-225-925|EC-J-6-225-925-2023||2904","EC-J-6-225-925|EC-J-6-225-925-2019||1949","EC-J-6-225-925|EC-J-6-225-925-2014||669"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-6-225-2400|EC-J-6-225-2400-2023||2907","EC-J-6-225-2400|EC-J-6-225-2400-2019||1952","EC-J-6-225-2400|EC-J-6-225-2400-2014||672"],"all_keys":["EC-J-6-225-2400|EC-J-6-225-2400-2023||2907","EC-J-6-225-2400|EC-J-6-225-2400-2019||1952","EC-J-6-225-2400|EC-J-6-225-2400-2014||672"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-7-355-4525|EC-J-7-355-4525-2023||3181","EC-J-7-355-4525|EC-J-7-355-4525-2019||1962","EC-J-7-355-4525|EC-J-7-355-4525-2014||682"],"all_keys":["EC-J-7-355-4525|EC-J-7-355-4525-2023||3181","EC-J-7-355-4525|EC-J-7-355-4525-2019||1962","EC-J-7-355-4525|EC-J-7-355-4525-2014||682"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-7-360-1425|EC-J-7-360-1425-2023||3184","EC-J-7-360-1425|EC-J-7-360-1425-2019||1965","EC-J-7-360-1425|EC-J-7-360-1425-2014||685"],"all_keys":["EC-J-7-360-1425|EC-J-7-360-1425-2023||3184","EC-J-7-360-1425|EC-J-7-360-1425-2019||1965","EC-J-7-360-1425|EC-J-7-360-1425-2014||685"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-7-365-1225|EC-J-7-365-1225-2023||2913","EC-J-7-365-1225|EC-J-7-365-1225-2019||1974","EC-J-7-365-1225|EC-J-7-365-1225-2014||694"],"all_keys":["EC-J-7-365-1225|EC-J-7-365-1225-2023||2913","EC-J-7-365-1225|EC-J-7-365-1225-2019||1974","EC-J-7-365-1225|EC-J-7-365-1225-2014||694"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-7-365-2075|EC-J-7-365-2075-2023||2914","EC-J-7-365-2075|EC-J-7-365-2075-2019||1975","EC-J-7-365-2075|EC-J-7-365-2075-2014||695"],"all_keys":["EC-J-7-365-2075|EC-J-7-365-2075-2023||2914","EC-J-7-365-2075|EC-J-7-365-2075-2019||1975","EC-J-7-365-2075|EC-J-7-365-2075-2014||695"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-7-370-505|EC-J-7-370-505-2023||3132","EC-J-7-370-505|EC-J-7-370-505-2019||1978","EC-J-7-370-505|EC-J-7-370-505-2014||698"],"all_keys":["EC-J-7-370-505|EC-J-7-370-505-2023||3132","EC-J-7-370-505|EC-J-7-370-505-2019||1978","EC-J-7-370-505|EC-J-7-370-505-2014||698"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-7-380-245|EC-J-7-380-245-2023||2918","EC-J-7-380-245|EC-J-7-380-245-2019||1988","EC-J-7-380-245|EC-J-7-380-245-2014||707"],"all_keys":["EC-J-7-380-245|EC-J-7-380-245-2023||2918","EC-J-7-380-245|EC-J-7-380-245-2019||1988","EC-J-7-380-245|EC-J-7-380-245-2014||707"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-7-380-300|EC-J-7-380-300-2023||2919","EC-J-7-380-300|EC-J-7-380-300-2019||1989","EC-J-7-380-300|EC-J-7-380-300-2014||708"],"all_keys":["EC-J-7-380-300|EC-J-7-380-300-2023||2919","EC-J-7-380-300|EC-J-7-380-300-2019||1989","EC-J-7-380-300|EC-J-7-380-300-2014||708"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-7-380-4000|EC-J-7-380-4000-2023||2921","EC-J-7-380-4000|EC-J-7-380-4000-2019||1991","EC-J-7-380-4000|EC-J-7-380-4000-2014||710"],"all_keys":["EC-J-7-380-4000|EC-J-7-380-4000-2023||2921","EC-J-7-380-4000|EC-J-7-380-4000-2019||1991","EC-J-7-380-4000|EC-J-7-380-4000-2014||710"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-7-755-1080|EC-J-7-755-1080-2023||3676","EC-J-7-755-1080|EC-J-7-755-1080-2019||2001","EC-J-7-755-1080|EC-J-7-755-1080-2014||720"],"all_keys":["EC-J-7-755-1080|EC-J-7-755-1080-2023||3676","EC-J-7-755-1080|EC-J-7-755-1080-2019||2001","EC-J-7-755-1080|EC-J-7-755-1080-2014||720"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-7-755-1100|EC-J-7-755-1100-2023||3677","EC-J-7-755-1100|EC-J-7-755-1100-2019||2002","EC-J-7-755-1100|EC-J-7-755-1100-2014||721"],"all_keys":["EC-J-7-755-1100|EC-J-7-755-1100-2023||3677","EC-J-7-755-1100|EC-J-7-755-1100-2019||2002","EC-J-7-755-1100|EC-J-7-755-1100-2014||721"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-7-860-160|EC-J-7-860-160-2023||3678","EC-J-7-860-160|EC-J-7-860-160-2019||2003","EC-J-7-860-160|EC-J-7-860-160-2014||722"],"all_keys":["EC-J-7-860-160|EC-J-7-860-160-2023||3678","EC-J-7-860-160|EC-J-7-860-160-2019||2003","EC-J-7-860-160|EC-J-7-860-160-2014||722"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-7-875-1975|EC-J-7-875-1975-2023||3679","EC-J-7-875-1975|EC-J-7-875-1975-2019||2004","EC-J-7-875-1975|EC-J-7-875-1975-2014||723"],"all_keys":["EC-J-7-875-1975|EC-J-7-875-1975-2023||3679","EC-J-7-875-1975|EC-J-7-875-1975-2019||2004","EC-J-7-875-1975|EC-J-7-875-1975-2014||723"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-8-560-450","country":"Ecuador","region":"ESMERALDAS","name":"CAMARONES / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-8-560-450|EC-J-8-560-450-2023||3191","EC-J-8-560-450|EC-J-8-560-450-2019||2005","EC-J-8-560-450|EC-J-8-560-450-2014||724"],"all_keys":["EC-J-8-560-450|EC-J-8-560-450-2023||3191","EC-J-8-560-450|EC-J-8-560-450-2019||2005","EC-J-8-560-450|EC-J-8-560-450-2014||724"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-8-560-655","country":"Ecuador","region":"ESMERALDAS","name":"CRNL.CARLOS CONCHA TORRES / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-8-560-655|EC-J-8-560-655-2023||2924","EC-J-8-560-655|EC-J-8-560-655-2019||2006","EC-J-8-560-655|EC-J-8-560-655-2014||725"],"all_keys":["EC-J-8-560-655|EC-J-8-560-655-2023||2924","EC-J-8-560-655|EC-J-8-560-655-2019||2006","EC-J-8-560-655|EC-J-8-560-655-2014||725"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-8-560-895","country":"Ecuador","region":"ESMERALDAS","name":"CHINCA / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The 10 July spending resolution lists 3,309 electors; the 11 August distribution lists 3,308. Both are retained.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-8-560-895|EC-J-8-560-895-2023||2925","EC-J-8-560-895|EC-J-8-560-895-2019||2007","EC-J-8-560-895|EC-J-8-560-895-2014||726"],"all_keys":["EC-J-8-560-895|EC-J-8-560-895-2023||2925","EC-J-8-560-895|EC-J-8-560-895-2019||2007","EC-J-8-560-895|EC-J-8-560-895-2014||726"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-8-560-2320","country":"Ecuador","region":"ESMERALDAS","name":"MAJUA / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-8-560-2320|EC-J-8-560-2320-2023||2926","EC-J-8-560-2320|EC-J-8-560-2320-2019||2008","EC-J-8-560-2320|EC-J-8-560-2320-2014||727"],"all_keys":["EC-J-8-560-2320|EC-J-8-560-2320-2023||2926","EC-J-8-560-2320|EC-J-8-560-2320-2019||2008","EC-J-8-560-2320|EC-J-8-560-2320-2014||727"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-8-560-3570","country":"Ecuador","region":"ESMERALDAS","name":"SAN MATEO / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-8-560-3570|EC-J-8-560-3570-2023||3192","EC-J-8-560-3570|EC-J-8-560-3570-2019||2009","EC-J-8-560-3570|EC-J-8-560-3570-2014||728"],"all_keys":["EC-J-8-560-3570|EC-J-8-560-3570-2023||3192","EC-J-8-560-3570|EC-J-8-560-3570-2019||2009","EC-J-8-560-3570|EC-J-8-560-3570-2014||728"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-8-560-3930","country":"Ecuador","region":"ESMERALDAS","name":"TABIAZO / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-8-560-3930|EC-J-8-560-3930-2023||3193","EC-J-8-560-3930|EC-J-8-560-3930-2019||2010","EC-J-8-560-3930|EC-J-8-560-3930-2014||729"],"all_keys":["EC-J-8-560-3930|EC-J-8-560-3930-2023||3193","EC-J-8-560-3930|EC-J-8-560-3930-2019||2010","EC-J-8-560-3930|EC-J-8-560-3930-2014||729"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-8-560-3940","country":"Ecuador","region":"ESMERALDAS","name":"TACHINA / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The 10 July spending resolution lists 4,097 electors; the 11 August distribution lists 4,096. Both are retained.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-8-560-3940|EC-J-8-560-3940-2023||2927","EC-J-8-560-3940|EC-J-8-560-3940-2019||2011","EC-J-8-560-3940|EC-J-8-560-3940-2014||730"],"all_keys":["EC-J-8-560-3940|EC-J-8-560-3940-2023||2927","EC-J-8-560-3940|EC-J-8-560-3940-2019||2011","EC-J-8-560-3940|EC-J-8-560-3940-2014||730"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-8-560-4240","country":"Ecuador","region":"ESMERALDAS","name":"VUELTA LARGA / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-8-560-4240|EC-J-8-560-4240-2023||2928","EC-J-8-560-4240|EC-J-8-560-4240-2019||2012","EC-J-8-560-4240|EC-J-8-560-4240-2014||731"],"all_keys":["EC-J-8-560-4240|EC-J-8-560-4240-2023||2928","EC-J-8-560-4240|EC-J-8-560-4240-2019||2012","EC-J-8-560-4240|EC-J-8-560-4240-2014||731"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-8-561-930","country":"Ecuador","region":"ESMERALDAS","name":"CHONTADURO / RÍO VERDE / ESMERALDAS","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-8-561-930|EC-J-8-561-930-2023||3194","EC-J-8-561-930|EC-J-8-561-930-2019||2013","EC-J-8-561-930|EC-J-8-561-930-2014||732"],"all_keys":["EC-J-8-561-930|EC-J-8-561-930-2023||3194","EC-J-8-561-930|EC-J-8-561-930-2019||2013","EC-J-8-561-930|EC-J-8-561-930-2014||732"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-8-561-965","country":"Ecuador","region":"ESMERALDAS","name":"CHUMUNDÉ / RÍO VERDE / ESMERALDAS","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-8-565-2670|EC-J-8-565-2670-2023||3204","EC-J-8-565-2670|EC-J-8-565-2670-2019||2027","EC-J-8-565-2670|EC-J-8-565-2670-2014||746"],"all_keys":["EC-J-8-565-2670|EC-J-8-565-2670-2023||3204","EC-J-8-565-2670|EC-J-8-565-2670-2019||2027","EC-J-8-565-2670|EC-J-8-565-2670-2014||746"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-8-580-3455|EC-J-8-580-3455-2023||3451","EC-J-8-580-3455|EC-J-8-580-3455-2019||2053","EC-J-8-580-3455|EC-J-8-580-3455-2014||772"],"all_keys":["EC-J-8-580-3455|EC-J-8-580-3455-2023||3451","EC-J-8-580-3455|EC-J-8-580-3455-2019||2053","EC-J-8-580-3455|EC-J-8-580-3455-2014||772"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-8-580-3725|EC-J-8-580-3725-2023||3344","EC-J-8-580-3725|EC-J-8-580-3725-2019||2054","EC-J-8-580-3725|EC-J-8-580-3725-2014||773"],"all_keys":["EC-J-8-580-3725|EC-J-8-580-3725-2023||3344","EC-J-8-580-3725|EC-J-8-580-3725-2019||2054","EC-J-8-580-3725|EC-J-8-580-3725-2014||773"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-9-425-3975|EC-J-9-425-3975-2023||3639","EC-J-9-425-3975|EC-J-9-425-3975-2019||2080","EC-J-9-425-3975|EC-J-9-425-3975-2014||799"],"all_keys":["EC-J-9-425-3975|EC-J-9-425-3975-2023||3639","EC-J-9-425-3975|EC-J-9-425-3975-2019||2080","EC-J-9-425-3975|EC-J-9-425-3975-2014||799"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-9-435-3370|EC-J-9-435-3370-2023||2943","EC-J-9-435-3370|EC-J-9-435-3370-2019||2085","EC-J-9-435-3370|EC-J-9-435-3370-2014||804"],"all_keys":["EC-J-9-435-3370|EC-J-9-435-3370-2023||2943","EC-J-9-435-3370|EC-J-9-435-3370-2019||2085","EC-J-9-435-3370|EC-J-9-435-3370-2014||804"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-9-435-3740|EC-J-9-435-3740-2023||2944","EC-J-9-435-3740|EC-J-9-435-3740-2019||2086","EC-J-9-435-3740|EC-J-9-435-3740-2014||805"],"all_keys":["EC-J-9-435-3740|EC-J-9-435-3740-2023||2944","EC-J-9-435-3740|EC-J-9-435-3740-2019||2086","EC-J-9-435-3740|EC-J-9-435-3740-2014||805"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-9-435-3990|EC-J-9-435-3990-2023||3382","EC-J-9-435-3990|EC-J-9-435-3990-2019||2087","EC-J-9-435-3990|EC-J-9-435-3990-2014||806"],"all_keys":["EC-J-9-435-3990|EC-J-9-435-3990-2023||3382","EC-J-9-435-3990|EC-J-9-435-3990-2019||2087","EC-J-9-435-3990|EC-J-9-435-3990-2014||806"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-9-715-185|EC-J-9-715-185-2023||3455","EC-J-9-715-185|EC-J-9-715-185-2019||2088","EC-J-9-715-185|EC-J-9-715-185-2014||807"],"all_keys":["EC-J-9-715-185|EC-J-9-715-185-2023||3455","EC-J-9-715-185|EC-J-9-715-185-2019||2088","EC-J-9-715-185|EC-J-9-715-185-2014||807"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-9-715-1670|EC-J-9-715-1670-2023||3304","EC-J-9-715-1670|EC-J-9-715-1670-2019||2089","EC-J-9-715-1670|EC-J-9-715-1670-2014||808"],"all_keys":["EC-J-9-715-1670|EC-J-9-715-1670-2023||3304","EC-J-9-715-1670|EC-J-9-715-1670-2019||2089","EC-J-9-715-1670|EC-J-9-715-1670-2014||808"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-9-790-660|EC-J-9-790-660-2023||2945","EC-J-9-790-660|EC-J-9-790-660-2019||2090","EC-J-9-790-660|EC-J-9-790-660-2014||809"],"all_keys":["EC-J-9-790-660|EC-J-9-790-660-2023||2945","EC-J-9-790-660|EC-J-9-790-660-2019||2090","EC-J-9-790-660|EC-J-9-790-660-2014||809"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-10-30-100","country":"Ecuador","region":"IMBABURA","name":"AMBUQUÍ/CHOTA / IBARRA / IMBABURA","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The 10 July spending resolution lists 5,207 electors; the 11 August distribution lists 5,206. Both are retained.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-30-100|EC-J-10-30-100-2023||3456","EC-J-10-30-100|EC-J-10-30-100-2019||2091","EC-J-10-30-100|EC-J-10-30-100-2014||810"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-30-100|EC-J-10-30-100-2023||3456","EC-J-10-30-100|EC-J-10-30-100-2019||2091","EC-J-10-30-100|EC-J-10-30-100-2014||810"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-10-30-130","country":"Ecuador","region":"IMBABURA","name":"ANGOCHAGUA / IBARRA / IMBABURA","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-30-130|EC-J-10-30-130-2023||2946","EC-J-10-30-130|EC-J-10-30-130-2019||2092","EC-J-10-30-130|EC-J-10-30-130-2014||811"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-30-130|EC-J-10-30-130-2023||2946","EC-J-10-30-130|EC-J-10-30-130-2019||2092","EC-J-10-30-130|EC-J-10-30-130-2014||811"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-10-30-530","country":"Ecuador","region":"IMBABURA","name":"CAROLINA /GUALLUPI / IBARRA / IMBABURA","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-30-530|EC-J-10-30-530-2023||3457","EC-J-10-30-530|EC-J-10-30-530-2019||2093","EC-J-10-30-530|EC-J-10-30-530-2014||812"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-30-530|EC-J-10-30-530-2023||3457","EC-J-10-30-530|EC-J-10-30-530-2019||2093","EC-J-10-30-530|EC-J-10-30-530-2014||812"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-10-30-2020","country":"Ecuador","region":"IMBABURA","name":"LA ESPERANZA / IBARRA / IMBABURA","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-30-2020|EC-J-10-30-2020-2023||2947","EC-J-10-30-2020|EC-J-10-30-2020-2019||2094","EC-J-10-30-2020|EC-J-10-30-2020-2014||813"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-30-2020|EC-J-10-30-2020-2023||2947","EC-J-10-30-2020|EC-J-10-30-2020-2019||2094","EC-J-10-30-2020|EC-J-10-30-2020-2014||813"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-10-30-2185","country":"Ecuador","region":"IMBABURA","name":"LITA / IBARRA / IMBABURA","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-30-2185|EC-J-10-30-2185-2023||2948","EC-J-10-30-2185|EC-J-10-30-2185-2019||2095","EC-J-10-30-2185|EC-J-10-30-2185-2014||814"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-30-2185|EC-J-10-30-2185-2023||2948","EC-J-10-30-2185|EC-J-10-30-2185-2019||2095","EC-J-10-30-2185|EC-J-10-30-2185-2014||814"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-10-30-3290","country":"Ecuador","region":"IMBABURA","name":"SALINAS / IBARRA / IMBABURA","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-30-3290|EC-J-10-30-3290-2023||3458","EC-J-10-30-3290|EC-J-10-30-3290-2019||2096","EC-J-10-30-3290|EC-J-10-30-3290-2014||815"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-30-3290|EC-J-10-30-3290-2023||3458","EC-J-10-30-3290|EC-J-10-30-3290-2019||2096","EC-J-10-30-3290|EC-J-10-30-3290-2014||815"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-10-30-3315","country":"Ecuador","region":"IMBABURA","name":"SAN ANTONIO / IBARRA / IMBABURA","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The 10 July spending resolution lists 16,159 electors; the 11 August distribution lists 16,154. Both are retained.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-30-3315|EC-J-10-30-3315-2023||2949","EC-J-10-30-3315|EC-J-10-30-3315-2019||2097","EC-J-10-30-3315|EC-J-10-30-3315-2014||816"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-30-3315|EC-J-10-30-3315-2023||2949","EC-J-10-30-3315|EC-J-10-30-3315-2019||2097","EC-J-10-30-3315|EC-J-10-30-3315-2014||816"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-10-35-1040","country":"Ecuador","region":"IMBABURA","name":"DR MIGUEL EGAS/PEGUCHE / OTAVALO / IMBABURA","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-35-1040|EC-J-10-35-1040-2023||2950","EC-J-10-35-1040|EC-J-10-35-1040-2019||2098","EC-J-10-35-1040|EC-J-10-35-1040-2014||817"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-35-1040|EC-J-10-35-1040-2023||2950","EC-J-10-35-1040|EC-J-10-35-1040-2019||2098","EC-J-10-35-1040|EC-J-10-35-1040-2014||817"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-35-1215|EC-J-10-35-1215-2023||2951","EC-J-10-35-1215|EC-J-10-35-1215-2019||2099","EC-J-10-35-1215|EC-J-10-35-1215-2014||818"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-35-1215|EC-J-10-35-1215-2023||2951","EC-J-10-35-1215|EC-J-10-35-1215-2019||2099","EC-J-10-35-1215|EC-J-10-35-1215-2014||818"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-35-1360|EC-J-10-35-1360-2023||2952","EC-J-10-35-1360|EC-J-10-35-1360-2019||2100","EC-J-10-35-1360|EC-J-10-35-1360-2014||819"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-35-1360|EC-J-10-35-1360-2023||2952","EC-J-10-35-1360|EC-J-10-35-1360-2019||2100","EC-J-10-35-1360|EC-J-10-35-1360-2014||819"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-35-2785|EC-J-10-35-2785-2023||2953","EC-J-10-35-2785|EC-J-10-35-2785-2019||2101","EC-J-10-35-2785|EC-J-10-35-2785-2014||820"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-35-2785|EC-J-10-35-2785-2023||2953","EC-J-10-35-2785|EC-J-10-35-2785-2019||2101","EC-J-10-35-2785|EC-J-10-35-2785-2014||820"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-35-3490|EC-J-10-35-3490-2023||2954","EC-J-10-35-3490|EC-J-10-35-3490-2019||2102","EC-J-10-35-3490|EC-J-10-35-3490-2014||821"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-35-3490|EC-J-10-35-3490-2023||2954","EC-J-10-35-3490|EC-J-10-35-3490-2019||2102","EC-J-10-35-3490|EC-J-10-35-3490-2014||821"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-10-35-3525","country":"Ecuador","region":"IMBABURA","name":"SAN JUAN DE ILUMÁN / OTAVALO / IMBABURA","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The 10 July spending resolution lists 7,639 electors; the 11 August distribution lists 7,638. Both are retained.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-35-3525|EC-J-10-35-3525-2023||2955","EC-J-10-35-3525|EC-J-10-35-3525-2019||2103","EC-J-10-35-3525|EC-J-10-35-3525-2014||822"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-35-3525|EC-J-10-35-3525-2023||2955","EC-J-10-35-3525|EC-J-10-35-3525-2019||2103","EC-J-10-35-3525|EC-J-10-35-3525-2014||822"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-10-35-3590","country":"Ecuador","region":"IMBABURA","name":"SAN PABLO / OTAVALO / IMBABURA","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The 10 July spending resolution lists 9,964 electors; the 11 August distribution lists 9,963. Both are retained.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-35-3590|EC-J-10-35-3590-2023||2956","EC-J-10-35-3590|EC-J-10-35-3590-2019||2104","EC-J-10-35-3590|EC-J-10-35-3590-2014||823"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-35-3590|EC-J-10-35-3590-2023||2956","EC-J-10-35-3590|EC-J-10-35-3590-2019||2104","EC-J-10-35-3590|EC-J-10-35-3590-2014||823"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-35-3630|EC-J-10-35-3630-2023||2957","EC-J-10-35-3630|EC-J-10-35-3630-2019||2105","EC-J-10-35-3630|EC-J-10-35-3630-2014||824"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-35-3630|EC-J-10-35-3630-2023||2957","EC-J-10-35-3630|EC-J-10-35-3630-2019||2105","EC-J-10-35-3630|EC-J-10-35-3630-2014||824"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-35-3810|EC-J-10-35-3810-2023||2958","EC-J-10-35-3810|EC-J-10-35-3810-2019||2106","EC-J-10-35-3810|EC-J-10-35-3810-2014||825"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-35-3810|EC-J-10-35-3810-2023||2958","EC-J-10-35-3810|EC-J-10-35-3810-2019||2106","EC-J-10-35-3810|EC-J-10-35-3810-2014||825"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-40-2915|EC-J-10-40-2915-2023||3641","EC-J-10-40-2915|EC-J-10-40-2915-2019||2111","EC-J-10-40-2915|EC-J-10-40-2915-2014||830"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-40-2915|EC-J-10-40-2915-2023||3641","EC-J-10-40-2915|EC-J-10-40-2915-2019||2111","EC-J-10-40-2915|EC-J-10-40-2915-2014||830"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-40-3115|EC-J-10-40-3115-2023||2962","EC-J-10-40-3115|EC-J-10-40-3115-2019||2112","EC-J-10-40-3115|EC-J-10-40-3115-2014||831"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-40-3115|EC-J-10-40-3115-2023||2962","EC-J-10-40-3115|EC-J-10-40-3115-2019||2112","EC-J-10-40-3115|EC-J-10-40-3115-2014||831"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-40-3800|EC-J-10-40-3800-2023||2963","EC-J-10-40-3800|EC-J-10-40-3800-2019||2113","EC-J-10-40-3800|EC-J-10-40-3800-2014||832"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-40-3800|EC-J-10-40-3800-2023||2963","EC-J-10-40-3800|EC-J-10-40-3800-2019||2113","EC-J-10-40-3800|EC-J-10-40-3800-2014||832"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-40-4185|EC-J-10-40-4185-2023||2964","EC-J-10-40-4185|EC-J-10-40-4185-2019||2114","EC-J-10-40-4185|EC-J-10-40-4185-2014||833"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-40-4185|EC-J-10-40-4185-2023||2964","EC-J-10-40-4185|EC-J-10-40-4185-2019||2114","EC-J-10-40-4185|EC-J-10-40-4185-2014||833"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-45-1715|EC-J-10-45-1715-2023||2965","EC-J-10-45-1715|EC-J-10-45-1715-2019||2115","EC-J-10-45-1715|EC-J-10-45-1715-2014||834"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-45-1715|EC-J-10-45-1715-2023||2965","EC-J-10-45-1715|EC-J-10-45-1715-2019||2115","EC-J-10-45-1715|EC-J-10-45-1715-2014||834"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-10-45-3400","country":"Ecuador","region":"IMBABURA","name":"SAN FCO.DE NATABUELA / ANTONIO ANTE / IMBABURA","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The 10 July spending resolution lists 5,358 electors; the 11 August distribution lists 5,356. Both are retained.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-45-3400|EC-J-10-45-3400-2023||2966","EC-J-10-45-3400|EC-J-10-45-3400-2019||2116","EC-J-10-45-3400|EC-J-10-45-3400-2014||835"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-45-3400|EC-J-10-45-3400-2023||2966","EC-J-10-45-3400|EC-J-10-45-3400-2019||2116","EC-J-10-45-3400|EC-J-10-45-3400-2014||835"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-10-45-3465","country":"Ecuador","region":"IMBABURA","name":"SAN JOSÉ DE CHALTURA / ANTONIO ANTE / IMBABURA","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-45-3465|EC-J-10-45-3465-2023||2967","EC-J-10-45-3465|EC-J-10-45-3465-2019||2117","EC-J-10-45-3465|EC-J-10-45-3465-2014||836"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-45-3465|EC-J-10-45-3465-2023||2967","EC-J-10-45-3465|EC-J-10-45-3465-2019||2117","EC-J-10-45-3465|EC-J-10-45-3465-2014||836"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-10-45-3640","country":"Ecuador","region":"IMBABURA","name":"SAN ROQUE / ANTONIO ANTE / IMBABURA","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The 10 July spending resolution lists 9,564 electors; the 11 August distribution lists 9,562. Both are retained.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-45-3640|EC-J-10-45-3640-2023||2968","EC-J-10-45-3640|EC-J-10-45-3640-2019||2118","EC-J-10-45-3640|EC-J-10-45-3640-2014||837"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-45-3640|EC-J-10-45-3640-2023||2968","EC-J-10-45-3640|EC-J-10-45-3640-2019||2118","EC-J-10-45-3640|EC-J-10-45-3640-2014||837"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-10-50-955","country":"Ecuador","region":"IMBABURA","name":"CHUGA / PIMAMPIRO / IMBABURA","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-50-955|EC-J-10-50-955-2023||3459","EC-J-10-50-955|EC-J-10-50-955-2019||2119","EC-J-10-50-955|EC-J-10-50-955-2014||838"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-50-955|EC-J-10-50-955-2023||3459","EC-J-10-50-955|EC-J-10-50-955-2019||2119","EC-J-10-50-955|EC-J-10-50-955-2014||838"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-10-50-2380","country":"Ecuador","region":"IMBABURA","name":"MARIANO ACOSTA / PIMAMPIRO / IMBABURA","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-50-2380|EC-J-10-50-2380-2023||3460","EC-J-10-50-2380|EC-J-10-50-2380-2019||2120","EC-J-10-50-2380|EC-J-10-50-2380-2014||839"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-50-2380|EC-J-10-50-2380-2023||3460","EC-J-10-50-2380|EC-J-10-50-2380-2019||2120","EC-J-10-50-2380|EC-J-10-50-2380-2014||839"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-10-50-3415","country":"Ecuador","region":"IMBABURA","name":"SAN FRANCISCO DE SIGSIPAMBA / PIMAMPIRO / IMBABURA","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-50-3415|EC-J-10-50-3415-2023||3461","EC-J-10-50-3415|EC-J-10-50-3415-2019||2121","EC-J-10-50-3415|EC-J-10-50-3415-2014||840"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-50-3415|EC-J-10-50-3415-2023||3461","EC-J-10-50-3415|EC-J-10-50-3415-2019||2121","EC-J-10-50-3415|EC-J-10-50-3415-2014||840"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-10-55-425","country":"Ecuador","region":"IMBABURA","name":"CAHUASQUÍ / URCUQUÍ / IMBABURA","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-55-425|EC-J-10-55-425-2023||3462","EC-J-10-55-425|EC-J-10-55-425-2019||2122","EC-J-10-55-425|EC-J-10-55-425-2014||841"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-55-425|EC-J-10-55-425-2023||3462","EC-J-10-55-425|EC-J-10-55-425-2019||2122","EC-J-10-55-425|EC-J-10-55-425-2014||841"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-10-55-2060","country":"Ecuador","region":"IMBABURA","name":"LA MERCED DE BUENOS AIRES / URCUQUÍ / IMBABURA","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-55-2060|EC-J-10-55-2060-2023||2969","EC-J-10-55-2060|EC-J-10-55-2060-2019||2123","EC-J-10-55-2060|EC-J-10-55-2060-2014||842"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-55-2060|EC-J-10-55-2060-2023||2969","EC-J-10-55-2060|EC-J-10-55-2060-2019||2123","EC-J-10-55-2060|EC-J-10-55-2060-2014||842"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-10-55-2675","country":"Ecuador","region":"IMBABURA","name":"PABLO ARENAS / URCUQUÍ / IMBABURA","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-55-2675|EC-J-10-55-2675-2023||3489","EC-J-10-55-2675|EC-J-10-55-2675-2019||2124","EC-J-10-55-2675|EC-J-10-55-2675-2014||843"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-55-2675|EC-J-10-55-2675-2023||3489","EC-J-10-55-2675|EC-J-10-55-2675-2019||2124","EC-J-10-55-2675|EC-J-10-55-2675-2014||843"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-10-55-3365","country":"Ecuador","region":"IMBABURA","name":"SAN BLAS / URCUQUÍ / IMBABURA","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-55-3365|EC-J-10-55-3365-2023||3490","EC-J-10-55-3365|EC-J-10-55-3365-2019||2125","EC-J-10-55-3365|EC-J-10-55-3365-2014||844"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-55-3365|EC-J-10-55-3365-2023||3490","EC-J-10-55-3365|EC-J-10-55-3365-2019||2125","EC-J-10-55-3365|EC-J-10-55-3365-2014||844"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-10-55-4080|EC-J-10-55-4080-2023||3463","EC-J-10-55-4080|EC-J-10-55-4080-2019||2126","EC-J-10-55-4080|EC-J-10-55-4080-2014||845"],"all_keys":["EC-J-10-55-4080|EC-J-10-55-4080-2023||3463","EC-J-10-55-4080|EC-J-10-55-4080-2019||2126","EC-J-10-55-4080|EC-J-10-55-4080-2014||845"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-11-290-1200|EC-J-11-290-1200-2023||3561","EC-J-11-290-1200|EC-J-11-290-1200-2019||2127","EC-J-11-290-1200|EC-J-11-290-1200-2014||846"],"all_keys":["EC-J-11-290-1200|EC-J-11-290-1200-2023||3561","EC-J-11-290-1200|EC-J-11-290-1200-2019||2127","EC-J-11-290-1200|EC-J-11-290-1200-2014||846"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-11-290-1480|EC-J-11-290-1480-2023||3748","EC-J-11-290-1480|EC-J-11-290-1480-2019||2128","EC-J-11-290-1480|EC-J-11-290-1480-2014||847"],"all_keys":["EC-J-11-290-1480|EC-J-11-290-1480-2023||3748","EC-J-11-290-1480|EC-J-11-290-1480-2019||2128","EC-J-11-290-1480|EC-J-11-290-1480-2014||847"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-11-290-3610|EC-J-11-290-3610-2023||3562","EC-J-11-290-3610|EC-J-11-290-3610-2019||2129","EC-J-11-290-3610|EC-J-11-290-3610-2014||848"],"all_keys":["EC-J-11-290-3610|EC-J-11-290-3610-2023||3562","EC-J-11-290-3610|EC-J-11-290-3610-2019||2129","EC-J-11-290-3610|EC-J-11-290-3610-2014||848"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-11-290-4455|EC-J-11-290-4455-2023||3563","EC-J-11-290-4455|EC-J-11-290-4455-2019||2130","EC-J-11-290-4455|EC-J-11-290-4455-2014||849"],"all_keys":["EC-J-11-290-4455|EC-J-11-290-4455-2023||3563","EC-J-11-290-4455|EC-J-11-290-4455-2019||2130","EC-J-11-290-4455|EC-J-11-290-4455-2014||849"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-11-305-1190|EC-J-11-305-1190-2023||3645","EC-J-11-305-1190|EC-J-11-305-1190-2019||2152","EC-J-11-305-1190|EC-J-11-305-1190-2014||871"],"all_keys":["EC-J-11-305-1190|EC-J-11-305-1190-2023||3645","EC-J-11-305-1190|EC-J-11-305-1190-2019||2152","EC-J-11-305-1190|EC-J-11-305-1190-2014||871"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-11-310-2140|EC-J-11-310-2140-2023||3308","EC-J-11-310-2140|EC-J-11-310-2140-2019||2165","EC-J-11-310-2140|EC-J-11-310-2140-2014||884"],"all_keys":["EC-J-11-310-2140|EC-J-11-310-2140-2023||3308","EC-J-11-310-2140|EC-J-11-310-2140-2019||2165","EC-J-11-310-2140|EC-J-11-310-2140-2014||884"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-11-325-2145|EC-J-11-325-2145-2023||3258","EC-J-11-325-2145|EC-J-11-325-2145-2019||2177","EC-J-11-325-2145|EC-J-11-325-2145-2014||896"],"all_keys":["EC-J-11-325-2145|EC-J-11-325-2145-2023||3258","EC-J-11-325-2145|EC-J-11-325-2145-2019||2177","EC-J-11-325-2145|EC-J-11-325-2145-2014||896"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-11-815-1450|EC-J-11-815-1450-2023||3751","EC-J-11-815-1450|EC-J-11-815-1450-2019||2203","EC-J-11-815-1450|EC-J-11-815-1450-2014||922"],"all_keys":["EC-J-11-815-1450|EC-J-11-815-1450-2023||3751","EC-J-11-815-1450|EC-J-11-815-1450-2019||2203","EC-J-11-815-1450|EC-J-11-815-1450-2014||922"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-11-815-3755|EC-J-11-815-3755-2023||3310","EC-J-11-815-3755|EC-J-11-815-3755-2019||2204","EC-J-11-815-3755|EC-J-11-815-3755-2014||923"],"all_keys":["EC-J-11-815-3755|EC-J-11-815-3755-2023||3310","EC-J-11-815-3755|EC-J-11-815-3755-2019||2204","EC-J-11-815-3755|EC-J-11-815-3755-2014||923"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-12-515-520|EC-J-12-515-520-2023||3795","EC-J-12-515-520|EC-J-12-515-520-2019||2205","EC-J-12-515-520|EC-J-12-515-520-2014||924"],"all_keys":["EC-J-12-515-520|EC-J-12-515-520-2023||3795","EC-J-12-515-520|EC-J-12-515-520-2019||2205","EC-J-12-515-520|EC-J-12-515-520-2014||924"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-12-520-1740|EC-J-12-520-1740-2023||3492","EC-J-12-520-1740|EC-J-12-520-1740-2019||2210","EC-J-12-520-1740|EC-J-12-520-1740-2014||929"],"all_keys":["EC-J-12-520-1740|EC-J-12-520-1740-2023||3492","EC-J-12-520-1740|EC-J-12-520-1740-2019||2210","EC-J-12-520-1740|EC-J-12-520-1740-2014||929"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-13-230-1620|EC-J-13-230-1620-2023||3798","EC-J-13-230-1620|EC-J-13-230-1620-2019||2223","EC-J-13-230-1620|EC-J-13-230-1620-2014||942"],"all_keys":["EC-J-13-230-1620|EC-J-13-230-1620-2023||3798","EC-J-13-230-1620|EC-J-13-230-1620-2019||2223","EC-J-13-230-1620|EC-J-13-230-1620-2014||942"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-13-440-3185|EC-J-13-440-3185-2023||3691","EC-J-13-440-3185|EC-J-13-440-3185-2019||2229","EC-J-13-440-3185|EC-J-13-440-3185-2014||948"],"all_keys":["EC-J-13-440-3185|EC-J-13-440-3185-2023||3691","EC-J-13-440-3185|EC-J-13-440-3185-2019||2229","EC-J-13-440-3185|EC-J-13-440-3185-2014||948"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-13-440-3625|EC-J-13-440-3625-2023||3697","EC-J-13-440-3625|EC-J-13-440-3625-2019||2230","EC-J-13-440-3625|EC-J-13-440-3625-2014||949"],"all_keys":["EC-J-13-440-3625|EC-J-13-440-3625-2023||3697","EC-J-13-440-3625|EC-J-13-440-3625-2019||2230","EC-J-13-440-3625|EC-J-13-440-3625-2014||949"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-13-450-1800|EC-J-13-450-1800-2023||3670","EC-J-13-450-1800|EC-J-13-450-1800-2019||2232","EC-J-13-450-1800|EC-J-13-450-1800-2014||951"],"all_keys":["EC-J-13-450-1800|EC-J-13-450-1800-2023||3670","EC-J-13-450-1800|EC-J-13-450-1800-2019||2232","EC-J-13-450-1800|EC-J-13-450-1800-2014||951"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-13-455-560|EC-J-13-455-560-2023||3223","EC-J-13-455-560|EC-J-13-455-560-2019||2235","EC-J-13-455-560|EC-J-13-455-560-2014||954"],"all_keys":["EC-J-13-455-560|EC-J-13-455-560-2023||3223","EC-J-13-455-560|EC-J-13-455-560-2019||2235","EC-J-13-455-560|EC-J-13-455-560-2014||954"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-13-460-1570|EC-J-13-460-1570-2023||3312","EC-J-13-460-1570|EC-J-13-460-1570-2019||2242","EC-J-13-460-1570|EC-J-13-460-1570-2014||961"],"all_keys":["EC-J-13-460-1570|EC-J-13-460-1570-2023||3312","EC-J-13-460-1570|EC-J-13-460-1570-2019||2242","EC-J-13-460-1570|EC-J-13-460-1570-2014||961"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-13-460-2555|EC-J-13-460-2555-2023||3313","EC-J-13-460-2555|EC-J-13-460-2555-2019||2243","EC-J-13-460-2555|EC-J-13-460-2555-2014||962"],"all_keys":["EC-J-13-460-2555|EC-J-13-460-2555-2023||3313","EC-J-13-460-2555|EC-J-13-460-2555-2019||2243","EC-J-13-460-2555|EC-J-13-460-2555-2014||962"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-13-470-220|EC-J-13-470-220-2023||3395","EC-J-13-470-220|EC-J-13-470-220-2019||2244","EC-J-13-470-220|EC-J-13-470-220-2014||963"],"all_keys":["EC-J-13-470-220|EC-J-13-470-220-2023||3395","EC-J-13-470-220|EC-J-13-470-220-2019||2244","EC-J-13-470-220|EC-J-13-470-220-2014||963"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-13-470-1105|EC-J-13-470-1105-2023||3396","EC-J-13-470-1105|EC-J-13-470-1105-2019||2245","EC-J-13-470-1105|EC-J-13-470-1105-2014||964"],"all_keys":["EC-J-13-470-1105|EC-J-13-470-1105-2023||3396","EC-J-13-470-1105|EC-J-13-470-1105-2019||2245","EC-J-13-470-1105|EC-J-13-470-1105-2014||964"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-13-470-1610|EC-J-13-470-1610-2023||3397","EC-J-13-470-1610|EC-J-13-470-1610-2019||2246","EC-J-13-470-1610|EC-J-13-470-1610-2014||965"],"all_keys":["EC-J-13-470-1610|EC-J-13-470-1610-2023||3397","EC-J-13-470-1610|EC-J-13-470-1610-2019||2246","EC-J-13-470-1610|EC-J-13-470-1610-2014||965"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-13-470-2135|EC-J-13-470-2135-2023||3398","EC-J-13-470-2135|EC-J-13-470-2135-2019||2247","EC-J-13-470-2135|EC-J-13-470-2135-2014||966"],"all_keys":["EC-J-13-470-2135|EC-J-13-470-2135-2023||3398","EC-J-13-470-2135|EC-J-13-470-2135-2019||2247","EC-J-13-470-2135|EC-J-13-470-2135-2014||966"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-13-475-3445|EC-J-13-475-3445-2023||3800","EC-J-13-475-3445|EC-J-13-475-3445-2019||2249","EC-J-13-475-3445|EC-J-13-475-3445-2014||968"],"all_keys":["EC-J-13-475-3445|EC-J-13-475-3445-2023||3800","EC-J-13-475-3445|EC-J-13-475-3445-2019||2249","EC-J-13-475-3445|EC-J-13-475-3445-2014||968"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-13-495-1395|EC-J-13-495-1395-2023||2983","EC-J-13-495-1395|EC-J-13-495-1395-2019||2262","EC-J-13-495-1395|EC-J-13-495-1395-2014||981"],"all_keys":["EC-J-13-495-1395|EC-J-13-495-1395-2023||2983","EC-J-13-495-1395|EC-J-13-495-1395-2019||2262","EC-J-13-495-1395|EC-J-13-495-1395-2014||981"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-13-495-2090|EC-J-13-495-2090-2023||2984","EC-J-13-495-2090|EC-J-13-495-2090-2019||2263","EC-J-13-495-2090|EC-J-13-495-2090-2014||982"],"all_keys":["EC-J-13-495-2090|EC-J-13-495-2090-2023||2984","EC-J-13-495-2090|EC-J-13-495-2090-2019||2263","EC-J-13-495-2090|EC-J-13-495-2090-2014||982"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-13-500-1980|EC-J-13-500-1980-2023||3585","EC-J-13-500-1980|EC-J-13-500-1980-2019||2265","EC-J-13-500-1980|EC-J-13-500-1980-2014||984"],"all_keys":["EC-J-13-500-1980|EC-J-13-500-1980-2023||3585","EC-J-13-500-1980|EC-J-13-500-1980-2019||2265","EC-J-13-500-1980|EC-J-13-500-1980-2014||984"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-13-550-265|EC-J-13-550-265-2023||3588","EC-J-13-550-265|EC-J-13-550-265-2019||2266","EC-J-13-550-265|EC-J-13-550-265-2014||985"],"all_keys":["EC-J-13-550-265|EC-J-13-550-265-2023||3588","EC-J-13-550-265|EC-J-13-550-265-2019||2266","EC-J-13-550-265|EC-J-13-550-265-2014||985"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-13-550-2030|EC-J-13-550-2030-2023||3589","EC-J-13-550-2030|EC-J-13-550-2030-2019||2267","EC-J-13-550-2030|EC-J-13-550-2030-2014||986"],"all_keys":["EC-J-13-550-2030|EC-J-13-550-2030-2023||3589","EC-J-13-550-2030|EC-J-13-550-2030-2019||2267","EC-J-13-550-2030|EC-J-13-550-2030-2014||986"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-13-840-1065|EC-J-13-840-1065-2023||3819","EC-J-13-840-1065|EC-J-13-840-1065-2019||2269","EC-J-13-840-1065|EC-J-13-840-1065-2014||988"],"all_keys":["EC-J-13-840-1065|EC-J-13-840-1065-2023||3819","EC-J-13-840-1065|EC-J-13-840-1065-2019||2269","EC-J-13-840-1065|EC-J-13-840-1065-2014||988"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-13-910-1030|EC-J-13-910-1030-2023||3821","EC-J-13-910-1030|EC-J-13-910-1030-2019||2272","EC-J-13-910-1030|EC-J-13-910-1030-2014||991"],"all_keys":["EC-J-13-910-1030|EC-J-13-910-1030-2023||3821","EC-J-13-910-1030|EC-J-13-910-1030-2019||2272","EC-J-13-910-1030|EC-J-13-910-1030-2014||991"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-14-590-65","country":"Ecuador","region":"MORONA SANTIAGO","name":"ALSHI /9 DE OCTUBRE / MORONA / MORONA SANTIAGO","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-14-590-65|EC-J-14-590-65-2023||2985","EC-J-14-590-65|EC-J-14-590-65-2019||2275","EC-J-14-590-65|EC-J-14-590-65-2014||994"],"all_keys":["EC-J-14-590-65|EC-J-14-590-65-2023||2985","EC-J-14-590-65|EC-J-14-590-65-2019||2275","EC-J-14-590-65|EC-J-14-590-65-2014||994"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-14-590-1250","country":"Ecuador","region":"MORONA SANTIAGO","name":"CUCHAENTZA / MORONA / MORONA SANTIAGO","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-14-590-1250|EC-J-14-590-1250-2023||2986","EC-J-14-590-1250|EC-J-14-590-1250-2019||2276","EC-J-14-590-1250|EC-J-14-590-1250-2014||995"],"all_keys":["EC-J-14-590-1250|EC-J-14-590-1250-2023||2986","EC-J-14-590-1250|EC-J-14-590-1250-2019||2276","EC-J-14-590-1250|EC-J-14-590-1250-2014||995"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-14-590-1345","country":"Ecuador","region":"MORONA SANTIAGO","name":"GRAL. PROAÑO / MORONA / MORONA SANTIAGO","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-14-590-1345|EC-J-14-590-1345-2023||2987","EC-J-14-590-1345|EC-J-14-590-1345-2019||2277","EC-J-14-590-1345|EC-J-14-590-1345-2014||996"],"all_keys":["EC-J-14-590-1345|EC-J-14-590-1345-2023||2987","EC-J-14-590-1345|EC-J-14-590-1345-2019||2277","EC-J-14-590-1345|EC-J-14-590-1345-2014||996"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-14-590-1730","country":"Ecuador","region":"MORONA SANTIAGO","name":"RÍO BLANCO / MORONA / MORONA SANTIAGO","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The 10 July spending resolution lists 1,936 electors; the 11 August distribution lists 1,933. Both are retained.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-14-590-1730|EC-J-14-590-1730-2023||2988","EC-J-14-590-1730|EC-J-14-590-1730-2019||2278","EC-J-14-590-1730|EC-J-14-590-1730-2014||997"],"all_keys":["EC-J-14-590-1730|EC-J-14-590-1730-2023||2988","EC-J-14-590-1730|EC-J-14-590-1730-2019||2278","EC-J-14-590-1730|EC-J-14-590-1730-2014||997"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-14-590-3440","country":"Ecuador","region":"MORONA SANTIAGO","name":"SAN ISIDRO / MORONA / MORONA SANTIAGO","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-14-590-3440|EC-J-14-590-3440-2023||2989","EC-J-14-590-3440|EC-J-14-590-3440-2019||2279","EC-J-14-590-3440|EC-J-14-590-3440-2014||998"],"all_keys":["EC-J-14-590-3440|EC-J-14-590-3440-2023||2989","EC-J-14-590-3440|EC-J-14-590-3440-2019||2279","EC-J-14-590-3440|EC-J-14-590-3440-2014||998"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-14-590-3830","country":"Ecuador","region":"MORONA SANTIAGO","name":"SEVILLA DON BOSCO / MORONA / MORONA SANTIAGO","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":null,"current":false,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Historical Sevilla Don Bosco parish board. New canton elects mayor and council; former parish returns are not histories of the new municipal offices.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-14-590-3830|EC-J-14-590-3830-2023||2990","EC-J-14-590-3830|EC-J-14-590-3830-2019||2280","EC-J-14-590-3830|EC-J-14-590-3830-2014||999"],"all_keys":["EC-J-14-590-3830|EC-J-14-590-3830-2023||2990","EC-J-14-590-3830|EC-J-14-590-3830-2019||2280","EC-J-14-590-3830|EC-J-14-590-3830-2014||999"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-14-590-4360","country":"Ecuador","region":"MORONA SANTIAGO","name":"ZUNAC / MORONA / MORONA SANTIAGO","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-14-590-4360|EC-J-14-590-4360-2023||2991","EC-J-14-590-4360|EC-J-14-590-4360-2019||2281","EC-J-14-590-4360|EC-J-14-590-4360-2014||1000"],"all_keys":["EC-J-14-590-4360|EC-J-14-590-4360-2023||2991","EC-J-14-590-4360|EC-J-14-590-4360-2019||2281","EC-J-14-590-4360|EC-J-14-590-4360-2014||1000"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-14-590-4485","country":"Ecuador","region":"MORONA SANTIAGO","name":"SINAÍ / MORONA / MORONA SANTIAGO","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-14-590-4485|EC-J-14-590-4485-2023||2992","EC-J-14-590-4485|EC-J-14-590-4485-2019||2282","EC-J-14-590-4485|EC-J-14-590-4485-2014||1001"],"all_keys":["EC-J-14-590-4485|EC-J-14-590-4485-2023||2992","EC-J-14-590-4485|EC-J-14-590-4485-2019||2282","EC-J-14-590-4485|EC-J-14-590-4485-2014||1001"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-14-595-90|EC-J-14-595-90-2023||2993","EC-J-14-595-90|EC-J-14-595-90-2019||2283","EC-J-14-595-90|EC-J-14-595-90-2014||1002"],"all_keys":["EC-J-14-595-90|EC-J-14-595-90-2023||2993","EC-J-14-595-90|EC-J-14-595-90-2019||2283","EC-J-14-595-90|EC-J-14-595-90-2014||1002"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-14-595-340|EC-J-14-595-340-2023||2994","EC-J-14-595-340|EC-J-14-595-340-2019||2284","EC-J-14-595-340|EC-J-14-595-340-2014||1003"],"all_keys":["EC-J-14-595-340|EC-J-14-595-340-2023||2994","EC-J-14-595-340|EC-J-14-595-340-2019||2284","EC-J-14-595-340|EC-J-14-595-340-2014||1003"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-14-595-350|EC-J-14-595-350-2023||2995","EC-J-14-595-350|EC-J-14-595-350-2019||2285","EC-J-14-595-350|EC-J-14-595-350-2014||1004"],"all_keys":["EC-J-14-595-350|EC-J-14-595-350-2023||2995","EC-J-14-595-350|EC-J-14-595-350-2019||2285","EC-J-14-595-350|EC-J-14-595-350-2014||1004"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-14-595-880|EC-J-14-595-880-2023||2996","EC-J-14-595-880|EC-J-14-595-880-2019||2286","EC-J-14-595-880|EC-J-14-595-880-2014||1005"],"all_keys":["EC-J-14-595-880|EC-J-14-595-880-2023||2996","EC-J-14-595-880|EC-J-14-595-880-2019||2286","EC-J-14-595-880|EC-J-14-595-880-2014||1005"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-14-595-1910|EC-J-14-595-1910-2023||2997","EC-J-14-595-1910|EC-J-14-595-1910-2019||2287","EC-J-14-595-1910|EC-J-14-595-1910-2014||1006"],"all_keys":["EC-J-14-595-1910|EC-J-14-595-1910-2023||2997","EC-J-14-595-1910|EC-J-14-595-1910-2019||2287","EC-J-14-595-1910|EC-J-14-595-1910-2014||1006"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-14-595-2565|EC-J-14-595-2565-2023||2998","EC-J-14-595-2565|EC-J-14-595-2565-2019||2288","EC-J-14-595-2565|EC-J-14-595-2565-2014||1007"],"all_keys":["EC-J-14-595-2565|EC-J-14-595-2565-2023||2998","EC-J-14-595-2565|EC-J-14-595-2565-2019||2288","EC-J-14-595-2565|EC-J-14-595-2565-2014||1007"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-14-595-3225|EC-J-14-595-3225-2023||2999","EC-J-14-595-3225|EC-J-14-595-3225-2019||2289","EC-J-14-595-3225|EC-J-14-595-3225-2014||1008"],"all_keys":["EC-J-14-595-3225|EC-J-14-595-3225-2023||2999","EC-J-14-595-3225|EC-J-14-595-3225-2019||2289","EC-J-14-595-3225|EC-J-14-595-3225-2014||1008"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-14-600-4305|EC-J-14-600-4305-2023||3005","EC-J-14-600-4305|EC-J-14-600-4305-2019||2295","EC-J-14-600-4305|EC-J-14-600-4305-2014||1014"],"all_keys":["EC-J-14-600-4305|EC-J-14-600-4305-2023||3005","EC-J-14-600-4305|EC-J-14-600-4305-2019||2295","EC-J-14-600-4305|EC-J-14-600-4305-2014||1014"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-14-605-645|EC-J-14-605-645-2023||3006","EC-J-14-605-645|EC-J-14-605-645-2019||2296","EC-J-14-605-645|EC-J-14-605-645-2014||1015"],"all_keys":["EC-J-14-605-645|EC-J-14-605-645-2023||3006","EC-J-14-605-645|EC-J-14-605-645-2019||2296","EC-J-14-605-645|EC-J-14-605-645-2014||1015"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-14-605-970|EC-J-14-605-970-2023||3007","EC-J-14-605-970|EC-J-14-605-970-2019||2297","EC-J-14-605-970|EC-J-14-605-970-2014||1016"],"all_keys":["EC-J-14-605-970|EC-J-14-605-970-2023||3007","EC-J-14-605-970|EC-J-14-605-970-2019||2297","EC-J-14-605-970|EC-J-14-605-970-2014||1016"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-14-605-1365|EC-J-14-605-1365-2023||3008","EC-J-14-605-1365|EC-J-14-605-1365-2019||2298","EC-J-14-605-1365|EC-J-14-605-1365-2014||1017"],"all_keys":["EC-J-14-605-1365|EC-J-14-605-1365-2023||3008","EC-J-14-605-1365|EC-J-14-605-1365-2019||2298","EC-J-14-605-1365|EC-J-14-605-1365-2014||1017"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-14-605-3565|EC-J-14-605-3565-2023||3010","EC-J-14-605-3565|EC-J-14-605-3565-2019||2300","EC-J-14-605-3565|EC-J-14-605-3565-2014||1019"],"all_keys":["EC-J-14-605-3565|EC-J-14-605-3565-2023||3010","EC-J-14-605-3565|EC-J-14-605-3565-2019||2300","EC-J-14-605-3565|EC-J-14-605-3565-2014||1019"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-14-605-4115|EC-J-14-605-4115-2023||3011","EC-J-14-605-4115|EC-J-14-605-4115-2019||2301","EC-J-14-605-4115|EC-J-14-605-4115-2014||1020"],"all_keys":["EC-J-14-605-4115|EC-J-14-605-4115-2023||3011","EC-J-14-605-4115|EC-J-14-605-4115-2019||2301","EC-J-14-605-4115|EC-J-14-605-4115-2014||1020"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-14-610-180|EC-J-14-610-180-2023||3012","EC-J-14-610-180|EC-J-14-610-180-2019||2302","EC-J-14-610-180|EC-J-14-610-180-2014||1021"],"all_keys":["EC-J-14-610-180|EC-J-14-610-180-2023||3012","EC-J-14-610-180|EC-J-14-610-180-2019||2302","EC-J-14-610-180|EC-J-14-610-180-2014||1021"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-14-611-525|EC-J-14-611-525-2023||3015","EC-J-14-611-525|EC-J-14-611-525-2019||2305","EC-J-14-611-525|EC-J-14-611-525-2014||1024"],"all_keys":["EC-J-14-611-525|EC-J-14-611-525-2023||3015","EC-J-14-611-525|EC-J-14-611-525-2019||2305","EC-J-14-611-525|EC-J-14-611-525-2014||1024"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-14-925-2750|EC-J-14-925-2750-2023||3025","EC-J-14-925-2750|EC-J-14-925-2750-2019||2315","EC-J-14-925-2750|EC-J-14-925-2750-2014||1034"],"all_keys":["EC-J-14-925-2750|EC-J-14-925-2750-2023||3025","EC-J-14-925-2750|EC-J-14-925-2750-2019||2315","EC-J-14-925-2750|EC-J-14-925-2750-2014||1034"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-15-620-1930|EC-J-15-620-1930-2023||3037","EC-J-15-620-1930|EC-J-15-620-1930-2019||2328","EC-J-15-620-1930|EC-J-15-620-1930-2014||1047"],"all_keys":["EC-J-15-620-1930|EC-J-15-620-1930-2023||3037","EC-J-15-620-1930|EC-J-15-620-1930-2019||2328","EC-J-15-620-1930|EC-J-15-620-1930-2014||1047"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-15-620-3050|EC-J-15-620-3050-2023||3040","EC-J-15-620-3050|EC-J-15-620-3050-2019||2331","EC-J-15-620-3050|EC-J-15-620-3050-2014||1050"],"all_keys":["EC-J-15-620-3050|EC-J-15-620-3050-2023||3040","EC-J-15-620-3050|EC-J-15-620-3050-2019||2331","EC-J-15-620-3050|EC-J-15-620-3050-2014||1050"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-15-635-2770|EC-J-15-635-2770-2023||3385","EC-J-15-635-2770|EC-J-15-635-2770-2019||2335","EC-J-15-635-2770|EC-J-15-635-2770-2014||1054"],"all_keys":["EC-J-15-635-2770|EC-J-15-635-2770-2023||3385","EC-J-15-635-2770|EC-J-15-635-2770-2019||2335","EC-J-15-635-2770|EC-J-15-635-2770-2014||1054"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-16-680-3180|EC-J-16-680-3180-2023||3685","EC-J-16-680-3180|EC-J-16-680-3180-2019||2347","EC-J-16-680-3180|EC-J-16-680-3180-2014||1066"],"all_keys":["EC-J-16-680-3180|EC-J-16-680-3180-2023||3685","EC-J-16-680-3180|EC-J-16-680-3180-2019||2347","EC-J-16-680-3180|EC-J-16-680-3180-2014||1066"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-16-680-3195|EC-J-16-680-3195-2023||3811","EC-J-16-680-3195|EC-J-16-680-3195-2019||2348","EC-J-16-680-3195|EC-J-16-680-3195-2014||1067"],"all_keys":["EC-J-16-680-3195|EC-J-16-680-3195-2023||3811","EC-J-16-680-3195|EC-J-16-680-3195-2019||2348","EC-J-16-680-3195|EC-J-16-680-3195-2014||1067"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-16-680-4005|EC-J-16-680-4005-2023||3053","EC-J-16-680-4005|EC-J-16-680-4005-2019||2351","EC-J-16-680-4005|EC-J-16-680-4005-2014||1070"],"all_keys":["EC-J-16-680-4005|EC-J-16-680-4005-2023||3053","EC-J-16-680-4005|EC-J-16-680-4005-2019||2351","EC-J-16-680-4005|EC-J-16-680-4005-2014||1070"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-17-60-195|EC-J-17-60-195-2023||3752","EC-J-17-60-195|EC-J-17-60-195-2019||2360","EC-J-17-60-195|EC-J-17-60-195-2014||1079"],"all_keys":["EC-J-17-60-195|EC-J-17-60-195-2023||3752","EC-J-17-60-195|EC-J-17-60-195-2019||2360","EC-J-17-60-195|EC-J-17-60-195-2014||1079"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-17-60-430","country":"Ecuador","region":"PICHINCHA","name":"CALACALÍ / QUITO / PICHINCHA","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 8 October 2023 repeated election is completed, confirmed by CNE credentials on 20 December. All five preliminary rounded list shares and the reported 3–2 allocation are retained with separate source status. Final integer counts remain unavailable. Selected completed cycles are ordered 2023, 2019, 2014. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/politica/elecciones-seccionales-2023-calacali-junta-parroquial-consejo-nacional-electoral-partido-socialista-ecuatoriano-nota/","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-17-60-430|EC-CALACALI-REPEAT-2023||3849","EC-J-17-60-430|EC-J-17-60-430-2019||2361","EC-J-17-60-430|EC-J-17-60-430-2014||1080"],"all_keys":["EC-J-17-60-430|EC-CALACALI-REPEAT-2023||3849","EC-J-17-60-430|EC-J-17-60-430-2023||3595","EC-J-17-60-430|EC-J-17-60-430-2019||2361","EC-J-17-60-430|EC-J-17-60-430-2014||1080"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/politica/elecciones-seccionales-2023-calacali-junta-parroquial-consejo-nacional-electoral-partido-socialista-ecuatoriano-nota/","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Five rounded preliminary list shares and reported seat allocation; completed event confirmed by final credentials. Final integer vote vector unavailable.":1,"Superseded ordinary attempt: Calacalí repeat documented in separate CNE 2023 dataset; certified repeat vote vector not yet recovered.":1,"Official votes and elected roster":2},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":1},{"id":"EC-J-17-60-440","country":"Ecuador","region":"PICHINCHA","name":"CALDERÓN / QUITO / PICHINCHA","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-17-60-440|EC-J-17-60-440-2023||3496","EC-J-17-60-440|EC-J-17-60-440-2019||2362","EC-J-17-60-440|EC-J-17-60-440-2014||1081"],"all_keys":["EC-J-17-60-440|EC-J-17-60-440-2023||3496","EC-J-17-60-440|EC-J-17-60-440-2019||2362","EC-J-17-60-440|EC-J-17-60-440-2014||1081"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-17-60-625","country":"Ecuador","region":"PICHINCHA","name":"CONOCOTO / QUITO / PICHINCHA","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-17-60-625|EC-J-17-60-625-2023||3497","EC-J-17-60-625|EC-J-17-60-625-2019||2363","EC-J-17-60-625|EC-J-17-60-625-2014||1082"],"all_keys":["EC-J-17-60-625|EC-J-17-60-625-2023||3497","EC-J-17-60-625|EC-J-17-60-625-2019||2363","EC-J-17-60-625|EC-J-17-60-625-2014||1082"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-17-60-725","country":"Ecuador","region":"PICHINCHA","name":"CUMBAYÁ / QUITO / PICHINCHA","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-17-60-725|EC-J-17-60-725-2023||3596","EC-J-17-60-725|EC-J-17-60-725-2019||2364","EC-J-17-60-725|EC-J-17-60-725-2014||1083"],"all_keys":["EC-J-17-60-725|EC-J-17-60-725-2023||3596","EC-J-17-60-725|EC-J-17-60-725-2019||2364","EC-J-17-60-725|EC-J-17-60-725-2014||1083"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-17-60-855","country":"Ecuador","region":"PICHINCHA","name":"CHAVEZPAMBA / QUITO / PICHINCHA","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-17-60-855|EC-J-17-60-855-2023||3753","EC-J-17-60-855|EC-J-17-60-855-2019||2365","EC-J-17-60-855|EC-J-17-60-855-2014||1084"],"all_keys":["EC-J-17-60-855|EC-J-17-60-855-2023||3753","EC-J-17-60-855|EC-J-17-60-855-2019||2365","EC-J-17-60-855|EC-J-17-60-855-2014||1084"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-17-60-865","country":"Ecuador","region":"PICHINCHA","name":"CHECA / QUITO / PICHINCHA","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":3,"years":[2023,2019,2014],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-17-60-865|EC-J-17-60-865-2023||3650","EC-J-17-60-865|EC-J-17-60-865-2019||2366","EC-J-17-60-865|EC-J-17-60-865-2014||1085"],"all_keys":["EC-J-17-60-865|EC-J-17-60-865-2023||3650","EC-J-17-60-865|EC-J-17-60-865-2019||2366","EC-J-17-60-865|EC-J-17-60-865-2014||1085"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-17-60-1400|EC-J-17-60-1400-2023||3597","EC-J-17-60-1400|EC-J-17-60-1400-2019||2367","EC-J-17-60-1400|EC-J-17-60-1400-2014||1086"],"all_keys":["EC-J-17-60-1400|EC-J-17-60-1400-2023||3597","EC-J-17-60-1400|EC-J-17-60-1400-2019||2367","EC-J-17-60-1400|EC-J-17-60-1400-2014||1086"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-17-60-2525|EC-J-17-60-2525-2023||3598","EC-J-17-60-2525|EC-J-17-60-2525-2019||2373","EC-J-17-60-2525|EC-J-17-60-2525-2014||1092"],"all_keys":["EC-J-17-60-2525|EC-J-17-60-2525-2023||3598","EC-J-17-60-2525|EC-J-17-60-2525-2019||2373","EC-J-17-60-2525|EC-J-17-60-2525-2014||1092"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-17-60-2530|EC-J-17-60-2530-2023||3754","EC-J-17-60-2530|EC-J-17-60-2530-2019||2374","EC-J-17-60-2530|EC-J-17-60-2530-2014||1093"],"all_keys":["EC-J-17-60-2530|EC-J-17-60-2530-2023||3754","EC-J-17-60-2530|EC-J-17-60-2530-2019||2374","EC-J-17-60-2530|EC-J-17-60-2530-2014||1093"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-17-60-2690|EC-J-17-60-2690-2023||3501","EC-J-17-60-2690|EC-J-17-60-2690-2019||2377","EC-J-17-60-2690|EC-J-17-60-2690-2014||1096"],"all_keys":["EC-J-17-60-2690|EC-J-17-60-2690-2023||3501","EC-J-17-60-2690|EC-J-17-60-2690-2019||2377","EC-J-17-60-2690|EC-J-17-60-2690-2014||1096"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-17-60-2895|EC-J-17-60-2895-2023||3599","EC-J-17-60-2895|EC-J-17-60-2895-2019||2380","EC-J-17-60-2895|EC-J-17-60-2895-2014||1099"],"all_keys":["EC-J-17-60-2895|EC-J-17-60-2895-2023||3599","EC-J-17-60-2895|EC-J-17-60-2895-2019||2380","EC-J-17-60-2895|EC-J-17-60-2895-2014||1099"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-17-60-2985|EC-J-17-60-2985-2023||3600","EC-J-17-60-2985|EC-J-17-60-2985-2019||2383","EC-J-17-60-2985|EC-J-17-60-2985-2014||1102"],"all_keys":["EC-J-17-60-2985|EC-J-17-60-2985-2023||3600","EC-J-17-60-2985|EC-J-17-60-2985-2019||2383","EC-J-17-60-2985|EC-J-17-60-2985-2014||1102"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-18-140-675|EC-J-18-140-675-2023||3085","EC-J-18-140-675|EC-J-18-140-675-2019||2432","EC-J-18-140-675|EC-J-18-140-675-2014||1151"],"all_keys":["EC-J-18-140-675|EC-J-18-140-675-2023||3085","EC-J-18-140-675|EC-J-18-140-675-2019||2432","EC-J-18-140-675|EC-J-18-140-675-2014||1151"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-18-145-295|EC-J-18-145-295-2023||3610","EC-J-18-145-295|EC-J-18-145-295-2019||2438","EC-J-18-145-295|EC-J-18-145-295-2014||1157"],"all_keys":["EC-J-18-145-295|EC-J-18-145-295-2023||3610","EC-J-18-145-295|EC-J-18-145-295-2019||2438","EC-J-18-145-295|EC-J-18-145-295-2014||1157"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-18-150-2270|EC-J-18-150-2270-2023||3611","EC-J-18-150-2270|EC-J-18-150-2270-2019||2445","EC-J-18-150-2270|EC-J-18-150-2270-2014||1164"],"all_keys":["EC-J-18-150-2270|EC-J-18-150-2270-2023||3611","EC-J-18-150-2270|EC-J-18-150-2270-2019||2445","EC-J-18-150-2270|EC-J-18-150-2270-2014||1164"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-18-155-4110|EC-J-18-155-4110-2023||3092","EC-J-18-155-4110|EC-J-18-155-4110-2019||2451","EC-J-18-155-4110|EC-J-18-155-4110-2014||1170"],"all_keys":["EC-J-18-155-4110|EC-J-18-155-4110-2023||3092","EC-J-18-155-4110|EC-J-18-155-4110-2019||2451","EC-J-18-155-4110|EC-J-18-155-4110-2014||1170"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-18-160-4310|EC-J-18-160-4310-2023||3093","EC-J-18-160-4310|EC-J-18-160-4310-2019||2452","EC-J-18-160-4310|EC-J-18-160-4310-2014||1171"],"all_keys":["EC-J-18-160-4310|EC-J-18-160-4310-2023||3093","EC-J-18-160-4310|EC-J-18-160-4310-2019||2452","EC-J-18-160-4310|EC-J-18-160-4310-2014||1171"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-19-660-1145|EC-J-19-660-1145-2023||3226","EC-J-19-660-1145|EC-J-19-660-1145-2019||2465","EC-J-19-660-1145|EC-J-19-660-1145-2014||1183"],"all_keys":["EC-J-19-660-1145|EC-J-19-660-1145-2023||3226","EC-J-19-660-1145|EC-J-19-660-1145-2019||2465","EC-J-19-660-1145|EC-J-19-660-1145-2014||1183"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-19-660-2015|EC-J-19-660-2015-2023||3227","EC-J-19-660-2015|EC-J-19-660-2015-2019||2466","EC-J-19-660-2015|EC-J-19-660-2015-2014||1184"],"all_keys":["EC-J-19-660-2015|EC-J-19-660-2015-2023||3227","EC-J-19-660-2015|EC-J-19-660-2015-2019||2466","EC-J-19-660-2015|EC-J-19-660-2015-2014||1184"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-19-775-945|EC-J-19-775-945-2023||3617","EC-J-19-775-945|EC-J-19-775-945-2019||2478","EC-J-19-775-945|EC-J-19-775-945-2014||1196"],"all_keys":["EC-J-19-775-945|EC-J-19-775-945-2023||3617","EC-J-19-775-945|EC-J-19-775-945-2019||2478","EC-J-19-775-945|EC-J-19-775-945-2014||1196"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-19-775-1015|EC-J-19-775-1015-2023||3618","EC-J-19-775-1015|EC-J-19-775-1015-2019||2479","EC-J-19-775-1015|EC-J-19-775-1015-2014||1197"],"all_keys":["EC-J-19-775-1015|EC-J-19-775-1015-2023||3618","EC-J-19-775-1015|EC-J-19-775-1015-2019||2479","EC-J-19-775-1015|EC-J-19-775-1015-2014||1197"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-21-625-1290|EC-J-21-625-1290-2023||3623","EC-J-21-625-1290|EC-J-21-625-1290-2019||2491","EC-J-21-625-1290|EC-J-21-625-1290-2014||1209"],"all_keys":["EC-J-21-625-1290|EC-J-21-625-1290-2023||3623","EC-J-21-625-1290|EC-J-21-625-1290-2019||2491","EC-J-21-625-1290|EC-J-21-625-1290-2014||1209"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-21-650-3705|EC-J-21-650-3705-2023||3628","EC-J-21-650-3705|EC-J-21-650-3705-2019||2505","EC-J-21-650-3705|EC-J-21-650-3705-2014||1223"],"all_keys":["EC-J-21-650-3705|EC-J-21-650-3705-2023||3628","EC-J-21-650-3705|EC-J-21-650-3705-2019||2505","EC-J-21-650-3705|EC-J-21-650-3705-2014||1223"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-22-630-3720|EC-J-22-630-3720-2023||3804","EC-J-22-630-3720|EC-J-22-630-3720-2019||2519","EC-J-22-630-3720|EC-J-22-630-3720-2014||1236"],"all_keys":["EC-J-22-630-3720|EC-J-22-630-3720-2023||3804","EC-J-22-630-3720|EC-J-22-630-3720-2019||2519","EC-J-22-630-3720|EC-J-22-630-3720-2014||1236"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-22-935-3480|EC-J-22-935-3480-2023||3358","EC-J-22-935-3480|EC-J-22-935-3480-2019||2544","EC-J-22-935-3480|EC-J-22-935-3480-2014||1261"],"all_keys":["EC-J-22-935-3480|EC-J-22-935-3480-2023||3358","EC-J-22-935-3480|EC-J-22-935-3480-2019||2544","EC-J-22-935-3480|EC-J-22-935-3480-2014||1261"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-23-85-75|EC-J-23-85-75-2023||3106","EC-J-23-85-75|EC-J-23-85-75-2019||2545","EC-J-23-85-75|EC-J-23-85-75-2014||1262"],"all_keys":["EC-J-23-85-75|EC-J-23-85-75-2023||3106","EC-J-23-85-75|EC-J-23-85-75-2019||2545","EC-J-23-85-75|EC-J-23-85-75-2014||1262"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-23-85-305|EC-J-23-85-305-2023||3698","EC-J-23-85-305|EC-J-23-85-305-2019||2546","EC-J-23-85-305|EC-J-23-85-305-2014||1263"],"all_keys":["EC-J-23-85-305|EC-J-23-85-305-2023||3698","EC-J-23-85-305|EC-J-23-85-305-2019||2546","EC-J-23-85-305|EC-J-23-85-305-2014||1263"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-23-85-1755|EC-J-23-85-1755-2023||3232","EC-J-23-85-1755|EC-J-23-85-1755-2019||2547","EC-J-23-85-1755|EC-J-23-85-1755-2014||1264"],"all_keys":["EC-J-23-85-1755|EC-J-23-85-1755-2023||3232","EC-J-23-85-1755|EC-J-23-85-1755-2019||2547","EC-J-23-85-1755|EC-J-23-85-1755-2014||1264"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-23-85-1970|EC-J-23-85-1970-2023||3107","EC-J-23-85-1970|EC-J-23-85-1970-2019||2548","EC-J-23-85-1970|EC-J-23-85-1970-2014||1265"],"all_keys":["EC-J-23-85-1970|EC-J-23-85-1970-2023||3107","EC-J-23-85-1970|EC-J-23-85-1970-2019||2548","EC-J-23-85-1970|EC-J-23-85-1970-2014||1265"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-23-85-1990|EC-J-23-85-1990-2023||3108","EC-J-23-85-1990|EC-J-23-85-1990-2019||2549","EC-J-23-85-1990|EC-J-23-85-1990-2014||1266"],"all_keys":["EC-J-23-85-1990|EC-J-23-85-1990-2023||3108","EC-J-23-85-1990|EC-J-23-85-1990-2019||2549","EC-J-23-85-1990|EC-J-23-85-1990-2014||1266"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-23-85-2045|EC-J-23-85-2045-2023||3233","EC-J-23-85-2045|EC-J-23-85-2045-2019||2550","EC-J-23-85-2045|EC-J-23-85-2045-2014||1267"],"all_keys":["EC-J-23-85-2045|EC-J-23-85-2045-2023||3233","EC-J-23-85-2045|EC-J-23-85-2045-2019||2550","EC-J-23-85-2045|EC-J-23-85-2045-2014||1267"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-23-85-4440|EC-J-23-85-4440-2023||3234","EC-J-23-85-4440|EC-J-23-85-4440-2019||2551","EC-J-23-85-4440|EC-J-23-85-4440-2014||1268"],"all_keys":["EC-J-23-85-4440|EC-J-23-85-4440-2023||3234","EC-J-23-85-4440|EC-J-23-85-4440-2019||2551","EC-J-23-85-4440|EC-J-23-85-4440-2014||1268"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-23-982-4635|EC-J-23-982-4635-2023||3140","EC-J-23-982-4635|EC-J-23-982-4635-2019||2552","EC-J-23-982-4635|EC-J-23-982-4635-2014||1269"],"all_keys":["EC-J-23-982-4635|EC-J-23-982-4635-2023||3140","EC-J-23-982-4635|EC-J-23-982-4635-2019||2552","EC-J-23-982-4635|EC-J-23-982-4635-2014||1269"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-23-982-4645|EC-J-23-982-4645-2023||3142","EC-J-23-982-4645|EC-J-23-982-4645-2019||2554","EC-J-23-982-4645|EC-J-23-982-4645-2014||1271"],"all_keys":["EC-J-23-982-4645|EC-J-23-982-4645-2023||3142","EC-J-23-982-4645|EC-J-23-982-4645-2019||2554","EC-J-23-982-4645|EC-J-23-982-4645-2014||1271"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-7-375-4650|EC-J-7-375-4650-2023||3488","EC-J-7-375-4650|EC-J-7-375-4650-2019||1987"],"all_keys":["EC-J-7-375-4650|EC-J-7-375-4650-2023||3488","EC-J-7-375-4650|EC-J-7-375-4650-2019||1987"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":2},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-19-130-4655","country":"Ecuador","region":"ZAMORA CHINCHIPE","name":"NANKAIS / NANGARITZA / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":2,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":2,"years":[2023,2019],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-19-130-4655|EC-J-19-130-4655-2023||3828","EC-J-19-130-4655|EC-J-19-130-4655-2019||2457"],"all_keys":["EC-J-19-130-4655|EC-J-19-130-4655-2023||3828","EC-J-19-130-4655|EC-J-19-130-4655-2019||2457"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":2},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-13-500-3632","country":"Ecuador","region":"MANABI","name":"SANTA MARIA / EL CARMEN / MANABI","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":1,"vote_cycles":1,"seat_cycles":1,"years":[2023],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The 10 July spending resolution lists 9,426 electors; the 11 August distribution lists 9,425. Both are retained.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-13-500-3632|EC-J-13-500-3632-2023||3586"],"all_keys":["EC-J-13-500-3632|EC-J-13-500-3632-2023||3586"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-13-500-3635","country":"Ecuador","region":"MANABI","name":"EL PARAISO / LA 14 / EL CARMEN / MANABI","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":1,"vote_cycles":1,"seat_cycles":1,"years":[2023],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The 10 July spending resolution lists 10,118 electors; the 11 August distribution lists 10,116. Both are retained.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-13-500-3635|EC-J-13-500-3635-2023||3587"],"all_keys":["EC-J-13-500-3635|EC-J-13-500-3635-2023||3587"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-21-650-4745","country":"Ecuador","region":"SUCUMBIOS","name":"SANSAHUARI / PUTUMAYO / SUCUMBIOS","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":1,"vote_cycles":1,"seat_cycles":1,"years":[2023],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-21-650-4745|EC-J-21-650-4745-2023||3765"],"all_keys":["EC-J-21-650-4745|EC-J-21-650-4745-2023||3765"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-J-21-745-4740","country":"Ecuador","region":"SUCUMBIOS","name":"NUEVA TRONCAL / CASCALES / SUCUMBIOS","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":1,"vote_cycles":1,"seat_cycles":1,"years":[2023],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-21-745-4740|EC-J-21-745-4740-2023||3773"],"all_keys":["EC-J-21-745-4740|EC-J-21-745-4740-2023||3773"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes and elected roster":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-M","country":"Ecuador","region":"Morona Santiago","name":"Sevilla Don Bosco / Morona Santiago","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":1,"vote_cycles":1,"seat_cycles":1,"years":[2025],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"One previous institutional election, 17 August 2025. CNE proclaimed the mayor and five principal/five substitute councillors on 5 September 2025. The complete named roster is retained; final votes and party allocation remain unavailable. There are no two older elections of these new offices. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The first-election statistical return and elected roster are imported. Its ballot-total and dataset-code notes remain visible. Later replacements and current control still require dated verification.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-sevilla-don-bosco-2025/","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-M|EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-M-2025||3850"],"all_keys":["EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-M|EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-M-2025||3850"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-sevilla-don-bosco-2025/","",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Complete official post-election party votes and elected-candidate statistics; source ballot-total differences retained":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-C","country":"Ecuador","region":"Morona Santiago","name":"Sevilla Don Bosco / Morona Santiago","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":1,"vote_cycles":1,"seat_cycles":1,"years":[2025],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"One previous institutional election, 17 August 2025. CNE proclaimed the mayor and five principal/five substitute councillors on 5 September 2025. The complete named roster is retained; final votes and party allocation remain unavailable. There are no two older elections of these new offices. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The first-election statistical return and elected roster are imported. Its ballot-total and dataset-code notes remain visible. Later replacements and current control still require dated verification.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-sevilla-don-bosco-2025/","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-C|EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-C-2025||3851"],"all_keys":["EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-C|EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-C-2025||3851"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-sevilla-don-bosco-2025/","",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary office verified: July 2026 call and August CNE territorial register","source_quality_counts":{"Complete official post-election party votes and elected-candidate statistics; source ballot-total differences retained":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-NEW-SOSOTE-J","country":"Ecuador","region":"Manabí","name":"Sosote / Rocafuerte / Manabí","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":1,"vote_cycles":1,"seat_cycles":1,"years":[2024],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Only one earlier election exists for this new office; two older cycles are structurally inapplicable. Official post-election party votes and elected statistics are now imported. Predecessor parish/canton votes are not assigned to the new office. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The 10 July spending resolution lists 3,944 electors; the 11 August distribution lists 3,938. Both are retained. The first-election statistical return and elected roster are imported. Its ballot-total and dataset-code notes remain visible. Later replacements and current control still require dated verification.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-parroquiales/","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-NEW-SOSOTE-J|EC-NEW-SOSOTE-J-2024||3852"],"all_keys":["EC-NEW-SOSOTE-J|EC-NEW-SOSOTE-J-2024||3852"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-parroquiales/","",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Complete official post-election party votes and elected-candidate statistics; source ballot-total differences retained":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-NEW-LA-PRIMAVERA-J","country":"Ecuador","region":"Sucumbíos","name":"La Primavera / Shushufindi / Sucumbíos","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":1,"vote_cycles":1,"seat_cycles":1,"years":[2024],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Only one earlier election exists for this new office; two older cycles are structurally inapplicable. Official post-election party votes and elected statistics are now imported. Predecessor parish/canton votes are not assigned to the new office. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The first-election statistical return and elected roster are imported. Its ballot-total and dataset-code notes remain visible. Later replacements and current control still require dated verification.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-parroquiales/","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-NEW-LA-PRIMAVERA-J|EC-NEW-LA-PRIMAVERA-J-2024||3853"],"all_keys":["EC-NEW-LA-PRIMAVERA-J|EC-NEW-LA-PRIMAVERA-J-2024||3853"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-parroquiales/","",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Complete official post-election party votes and elected-candidate statistics; source ballot-total differences retained":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-NEW-LA-MAGDALENA-J","country":"Ecuador","region":"Sucumbíos","name":"La Magdalena / Shushufindi / Sucumbíos","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":1,"vote_cycles":1,"seat_cycles":1,"years":[2024],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Only one earlier election exists for this new office; two older cycles are structurally inapplicable. Official post-election party votes and elected statistics are now imported. Predecessor parish/canton votes are not assigned to the new office. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The first-election statistical return and elected roster are imported. Its ballot-total and dataset-code notes remain visible. Later replacements and current control still require dated verification.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-parroquiales/","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-NEW-LA-MAGDALENA-J|EC-NEW-LA-MAGDALENA-J-2024||3854"],"all_keys":["EC-NEW-LA-MAGDALENA-J|EC-NEW-LA-MAGDALENA-J-2024||3854"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-parroquiales/","",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Complete official post-election party votes and elected-candidate statistics; source ballot-total differences retained":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-NEW-JUAN-MONTALVO-J","country":"Ecuador","region":"Pichincha","name":"Juan Montalvo / Cayambe / Pichincha","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":1,"vote_cycles":1,"seat_cycles":1,"years":[2024],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"Only one earlier election exists for this new office; two older cycles are structurally inapplicable. Official post-election party votes and elected statistics are now imported. Predecessor parish/canton votes are not assigned to the new office. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The first-election statistical return and elected roster are imported. Its ballot-total and dataset-code notes remain visible. Later replacements and current control still require dated verification.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-parroquiales/","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-NEW-JUAN-MONTALVO-J|EC-NEW-JUAN-MONTALVO-J-2024||3855"],"all_keys":["EC-NEW-JUAN-MONTALVO-J|EC-NEW-JUAN-MONTALVO-J-2024||3855"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-parroquiales/","",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Ordinary parish contest verified: signed July 2026 list matched to August CNE codes","source_quality_counts":{"Complete official post-election party votes and elected-candidate statistics; source ballot-total differences retained":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-NEW-BORBON-M","country":"Ecuador","region":"Esmeraldas","name":"Borbón / Esmeraldas","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-03-21","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"First election: no earlier elections of this office exist. Zero historical cycles is a structural exception. Approved calendar; publication of call due 16 November 2026. Predecessor parish/canton votes are not assigned to the new office.","sources":[],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"New unit; internal stable ID, official electoral code pending","source_quality_counts":{},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-NEW-BORBON-C","country":"Ecuador","region":"Esmeraldas","name":"Borbón / Esmeraldas","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-03-21","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"First election: no earlier elections of this office exist. Zero historical cycles is a structural exception. Approved calendar; publication of call due 16 November 2026. Predecessor parish/canton votes are not assigned to the new office.","sources":[],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"New unit; internal stable ID, official electoral code pending","source_quality_counts":{},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-NEW-MISS-ECUADOR-J","country":"Ecuador","region":"Sucumbíos","name":"Miss Ecuador / Shushufindi / Sucumbíos","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2027-03-21","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"First election: no earlier elections of this office exist. Zero historical cycles is a structural exception. Approved calendar; publication of call due 16 November 2026. Predecessor parish/canton votes are not assigned to the new office.","sources":[],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"New unit; internal stable ID, official electoral code pending","source_quality_counts":{},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"EC-NEW-SHUAR-PASTAZA-J","country":"Ecuador","region":"Pastaza","name":"Shuar Pastaza / Pastaza / Pastaza","office":"Parish board","tier":"Parish","date":"2026-11-29","current":true,"events":1,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2026],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.","local_note":"First election on 17 May 2026, with its initial term ending 13 May 2027. Included in the November 2026 ordinary renewal. Earlier parish/canton results are not elections of this new institution. Preliminary votes are separately labelled; full final certification remains outstanding. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.","sources":["https://www.expreso.ec/politica/adn-gana-primeras-elecciones-locales-parroquia-shuar-pastaza-282491.html","https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/"],"selected_keys":["EC-NEW-SHUAR-PASTAZA-J|EC-NEW-SHUAR-PASTAZA-J-2026-05-17||3856"],"all_keys":["EC-NEW-SHUAR-PASTAZA-J|EC-NEW-SHUAR-PASTAZA-J-2026-05-17||3856"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.expreso.ec/politica/adn-gana-primeras-elecciones-locales-parroquia-shuar-pastaza-282491.html","",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. 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Retained as archival evidence and excluded from tracked current units.","sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971"],"selected_keys":["EC-J-21-745-9997|EC-J-21-745-9997-2019||2513"],"all_keys":["EC-J-21-745-9997|EC-J-21-745-9997-2019||2513"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable","volatility_groups":[],"volatility_vectors":[],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Official votes 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Conflicting electorate totals are withheld.","_key":"EC-NEW-SHUAR-PASTAZA-J|EC-NEW-SHUAR-PASTAZA-J-2026-05-17||3856","_vote_ok":false,"_seat_ok":false,"_gap":null,"_source_url":"https://www.expreso.ec/politica/adn-gana-primeras-elecciones-locales-parroquia-shuar-pastaza-282491.html","_source_request":{}}],"rosters":[{"jurisdiction_id":"EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-M","event_date":"2025-08-17","year":2025,"candidate":"Carlos Fabricio Narváez Gavilanes","elected":true,"substitute":false,"source_id":"SA35315b93749c84","certification_date":"2025-09-05","party":null,"note":"The CNE announcement does not give party affiliations."},{"jurisdiction_id":"EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-C","event_date":"2025-08-17","year":2025,"candidate":"Leovigildo Nerio Pidru Yambisa","elected":true,"substitute":false,"source_id":"SA35315b93749c84","certification_date":"2025-09-05","party":null,"note":"The CNE announcement does not give party 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Substitutes are not additional seats."},{"record_type":"official_elected_candidate_statistics","jurisdiction_id":"EC-NEW-LA-MAGDALENA-J","year":2024,"event_date":"2024-03-17","candidate":"CABRERA SARANGO JIMMI JAVIER","party":"ALIANZA LA MAGDALENA TIERRA DE VALIENTES Y TRABAJADORES-AS","party_code":"1521","office":"Parish board","substitute":true,"source_id":"SA40-EC-PARISH-CANDIDATES","source_dignity_code":6,"note":"Elected flag and named substitute from CNE statistical candidate table. Substitutes are not additional seats."},{"record_type":"official_elected_candidate_statistics","jurisdiction_id":"EC-NEW-LA-MAGDALENA-J","year":2024,"event_date":"2024-03-17","candidate":"JIMENEZ MASACHE MAYELI YAJAIRA","party":"MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO SEGUIMOS (MPS)","party_code":"192","office":"Parish board","substitute":false,"source_id":"SA40-EC-PARISH-CANDIDATES","source_dignity_code":6,"note":"Elected flag and named substitute from CNE statistical candidate table. 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Substitutes are not additional seats."},{"record_type":"official_elected_candidate_statistics","jurisdiction_id":"EC-NEW-LA-MAGDALENA-J","year":2024,"event_date":"2024-03-17","candidate":"MOROCHO PAZOS PATRICIA ELIZABETH","party":"MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA","party_code":"207","office":"Parish board","substitute":true,"source_id":"SA40-EC-PARISH-CANDIDATES","source_dignity_code":6,"note":"Elected flag and named substitute from CNE statistical candidate table. Substitutes are not additional seats."},{"record_type":"official_elected_candidate_statistics","jurisdiction_id":"EC-NEW-LA-MAGDALENA-J","year":2024,"event_date":"2024-03-17","candidate":"LLANOS VILLACRES MARIA MAGDALENA","party":"MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA","party_code":"207","office":"Parish board","substitute":false,"source_id":"SA40-EC-PARISH-CANDIDATES","source_dignity_code":6,"note":"Elected flag and named substitute from CNE statistical candidate table. Substitutes are not additional seats."},{"record_type":"official_elected_candidate_statistics","jurisdiction_id":"EC-NEW-LA-MAGDALENA-J","year":2024,"event_date":"2024-03-17","candidate":"APOLO ROMERO PEDRO JESUS","party":"MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA","party_code":"207","office":"Parish board","substitute":true,"source_id":"SA40-EC-PARISH-CANDIDATES","source_dignity_code":6,"note":"Elected flag and named substitute from CNE statistical candidate table. Substitutes are not additional seats."},{"record_type":"official_elected_candidate_statistics","jurisdiction_id":"EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-M","year":2025,"event_date":"2025-08-17","candidate":"NARVAEZ GAVILANES CARLOS FABRICIO","party":"JUNTOS POR SEVILLA","party_code":"1678","office":"Mayor","substitute":false,"source_id":"SA40-EC-SEVILLA-CANDIDATES","source_dignity_code":4,"note":"Elected flag and named substitute from CNE statistical candidate table. Substitutes are not additional seats."},{"record_type":"official_elected_candidate_statistics","jurisdiction_id":"EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-C","year":2025,"event_date":"2025-08-17","candidate":"NAWECH WAJAI JORGE BENIGNO","party":"MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK","party_code":"7","office":"Municipal council","substitute":false,"source_id":"SA40-EC-SEVILLA-CANDIDATES","source_dignity_code":5,"note":"Elected flag and named substitute from CNE statistical candidate table. Substitutes are not additional seats."},{"record_type":"official_elected_candidate_statistics","jurisdiction_id":"EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-C","year":2025,"event_date":"2025-08-17","candidate":"GOMEZ RAMOS CLAUDIA ELIZABETH","party":"MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK","party_code":"7","office":"Municipal council","substitute":true,"source_id":"SA40-EC-SEVILLA-CANDIDATES","source_dignity_code":5,"note":"Elected flag and named substitute from CNE statistical candidate table. Substitutes are not additional seats."},{"record_type":"official_elected_candidate_statistics","jurisdiction_id":"EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-C","year":2025,"event_date":"2025-08-17","candidate":"PIDRU YAMBISA LEOVIGILDO NERIO","party":"JUNTOS POR SEVILLA","party_code":"1678","office":"Municipal council","substitute":false,"source_id":"SA40-EC-SEVILLA-CANDIDATES","source_dignity_code":5,"note":"Elected flag and named substitute from CNE statistical candidate table. Substitutes are not additional seats."},{"record_type":"official_elected_candidate_statistics","jurisdiction_id":"EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-C","year":2025,"event_date":"2025-08-17","candidate":"YANKUAM UNUPI MAILI GERMANIA","party":"JUNTOS POR SEVILLA","party_code":"1678","office":"Municipal council","substitute":true,"source_id":"SA40-EC-SEVILLA-CANDIDATES","source_dignity_code":5,"note":"Elected flag and named substitute from CNE statistical candidate table. Substitutes are not additional seats."},{"record_type":"official_elected_candidate_statistics","jurisdiction_id":"EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-C","year":2025,"event_date":"2025-08-17","candidate":"AYUY PUENCHERA PABLO FREDDY","party":"MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA","party_code":"207","office":"Municipal council","substitute":false,"source_id":"SA40-EC-SEVILLA-CANDIDATES","source_dignity_code":5,"note":"Elected flag and named substitute from CNE statistical candidate table. Substitutes are not additional seats."},{"record_type":"official_elected_candidate_statistics","jurisdiction_id":"EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-C","year":2025,"event_date":"2025-08-17","candidate":"TIVI SAANT ADELA ELIZABETH","party":"MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA","party_code":"207","office":"Municipal council","substitute":true,"source_id":"SA40-EC-SEVILLA-CANDIDATES","source_dignity_code":5,"note":"Elected flag and named substitute from CNE statistical candidate table. Substitutes are not additional seats."},{"record_type":"official_elected_candidate_statistics","jurisdiction_id":"EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-C","year":2025,"event_date":"2025-08-17","candidate":"JUANGA WAMPASH CECIBEL JANINE","party":"MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK","party_code":"7","office":"Municipal council","substitute":false,"source_id":"SA40-EC-SEVILLA-CANDIDATES","source_dignity_code":5,"note":"Elected flag and named substitute from CNE statistical candidate table. Substitutes are not additional seats."},{"record_type":"official_elected_candidate_statistics","jurisdiction_id":"EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-C","year":2025,"event_date":"2025-08-17","candidate":"TUNGUI YAMPIK ROLAN ALBERTO","party":"MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK","party_code":"7","office":"Municipal council","substitute":true,"source_id":"SA40-EC-SEVILLA-CANDIDATES","source_dignity_code":5,"note":"Elected flag and named substitute from CNE statistical candidate table. Substitutes are not additional seats."},{"record_type":"official_elected_candidate_statistics","jurisdiction_id":"EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-C","year":2025,"event_date":"2025-08-17","candidate":"ROBLES AGUAYO AURELIA ELIZABETH","party":"JUNTOS POR SEVILLA","party_code":"1678","office":"Municipal council","substitute":false,"source_id":"SA40-EC-SEVILLA-CANDIDATES","source_dignity_code":5,"note":"Elected flag and named substitute from CNE statistical candidate table. Substitutes are not additional seats."},{"record_type":"official_elected_candidate_statistics","jurisdiction_id":"EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-C","year":2025,"event_date":"2025-08-17","candidate":"KAJEKAI MARIAN JHAN MARCOS","party":"JUNTOS POR SEVILLA","party_code":"1678","office":"Municipal council","substitute":true,"source_id":"SA40-EC-SEVILLA-CANDIDATES","source_dignity_code":5,"note":"Elected flag and named substitute from CNE statistical candidate table. Substitutes are not additional seats."}],"issues":[{"country":"Ecuador","id":"EC-J-21-745-9997","year":null,"issue":"Historical code not linked to current geography","detail":"Archival record retained separately. A current-unit mapping is not assumed.","source":"https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971"},{"country":"Ecuador","id":"EC-J-17-60-430","year":2023,"issue":"Calacalí repeat votes missing","detail":"{\"id\": \"EC-J-17-60-430\", \"year\": 2023, \"issue\": \"Calacalí repeat votes missing\", \"source\": \"https://www.cne.gob.ec/estadisticas/bases-de-datos/\", \"detail\": \"February return withheld; repeat is represented rather than bypassed with older data.\"}","source":"https://www.cne.gob.ec/estadisticas/bases-de-datos/"},{"country":"Ecuador","id":"EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-M","year":null,"issue":"New-unit structural history exception","detail":"{\"id\": \"EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-M\", \"issue\": \"New-unit structural history exception\", \"detail\": \"Only one earlier election exists for this new office. Its official party-vote vector and elected-candidate statistics are imported. Two older cycles are structurally inapplicable. Source ballot-total discrepancies and dataset-specific code joins remain documented. Predecessor votes are not assigned to this office.\", \"source\": \"https://www.cne.gob.ec/cne-aprobo-la-convocatoria-para-las-elecciones-seccionales-y-del-cpccs-2027/\"}","source":"https://www.cne.gob.ec/cne-aprobo-la-convocatoria-para-las-elecciones-seccionales-y-del-cpccs-2027/"},{"country":"Ecuador","id":"EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-C","year":null,"issue":"New-unit structural history exception","detail":"{\"id\": \"EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-C\", \"issue\": \"New-unit structural history exception\", \"detail\": \"Only one earlier election exists for this new office. Its official party-vote vector and elected-candidate statistics are imported. Two older cycles are structurally inapplicable. Source ballot-total discrepancies and dataset-specific code joins remain documented. Predecessor votes are not assigned to this office.\", \"source\": \"https://www.cne.gob.ec/cne-aprobo-la-convocatoria-para-las-elecciones-seccionales-y-del-cpccs-2027/\"}","source":"https://www.cne.gob.ec/cne-aprobo-la-convocatoria-para-las-elecciones-seccionales-y-del-cpccs-2027/"},{"country":"Ecuador","id":"EC-NEW-SOSOTE-J","year":null,"issue":"New-unit structural history exception","detail":"{\"id\": \"EC-NEW-SOSOTE-J\", \"issue\": \"New-unit structural history exception\", \"detail\": \"Only one earlier election exists for this new office. Its official party-vote vector and elected-candidate statistics are imported. Two older cycles are structurally inapplicable. Source ballot-total discrepancies and dataset-specific code joins remain documented. Predecessor votes are not assigned to this office.\", \"source\": \"https://www.cne.gob.ec/cne-aprobo-la-convocatoria-para-las-elecciones-seccionales-y-del-cpccs-2027/\"}","source":"https://www.cne.gob.ec/cne-aprobo-la-convocatoria-para-las-elecciones-seccionales-y-del-cpccs-2027/"},{"country":"Ecuador","id":"EC-NEW-LA-PRIMAVERA-J","year":null,"issue":"New-unit structural history exception","detail":"{\"id\": \"EC-NEW-LA-PRIMAVERA-J\", \"issue\": \"New-unit structural history exception\", \"detail\": \"Only one earlier election exists for this new office. Its official party-vote vector and elected-candidate statistics are imported. Two older cycles are structurally inapplicable. Source ballot-total discrepancies and dataset-specific code joins remain documented. Predecessor votes are not assigned to this office.\", \"source\": \"https://www.cne.gob.ec/cne-aprobo-la-convocatoria-para-las-elecciones-seccionales-y-del-cpccs-2027/\"}","source":"https://www.cne.gob.ec/cne-aprobo-la-convocatoria-para-las-elecciones-seccionales-y-del-cpccs-2027/"},{"country":"Ecuador","id":"EC-NEW-LA-MAGDALENA-J","year":null,"issue":"New-unit structural history exception","detail":"{\"id\": \"EC-NEW-LA-MAGDALENA-J\", \"issue\": \"New-unit structural history exception\", \"detail\": \"Only one earlier election exists for this new office. Its official party-vote vector and elected-candidate statistics are imported. Two older cycles are structurally inapplicable. Source ballot-total discrepancies and dataset-specific code joins remain documented. Predecessor votes are not assigned to this office.\", \"source\": \"https://www.cne.gob.ec/cne-aprobo-la-convocatoria-para-las-elecciones-seccionales-y-del-cpccs-2027/\"}","source":"https://www.cne.gob.ec/cne-aprobo-la-convocatoria-para-las-elecciones-seccionales-y-del-cpccs-2027/"},{"country":"Ecuador","id":"EC-NEW-JUAN-MONTALVO-J","year":null,"issue":"New-unit structural history exception","detail":"{\"id\": \"EC-NEW-JUAN-MONTALVO-J\", \"issue\": \"New-unit structural history exception\", \"detail\": \"Only one earlier election exists for this new office. Its official party-vote vector and elected-candidate statistics are imported. Two older cycles are structurally inapplicable. Source ballot-total discrepancies and dataset-specific code joins remain documented. Predecessor votes are not assigned to this office.\", \"source\": \"https://www.cne.gob.ec/cne-aprobo-la-convocatoria-para-las-elecciones-seccionales-y-del-cpccs-2027/\"}","source":"https://www.cne.gob.ec/cne-aprobo-la-convocatoria-para-las-elecciones-seccionales-y-del-cpccs-2027/"},{"country":"Ecuador","id":"EC-NEW-BORBON-M","year":null,"issue":"New-unit structural history exception","detail":"{\"id\": \"EC-NEW-BORBON-M\", \"issue\": \"New-unit structural history exception\", \"detail\": \"First election: no earlier elections of this office exist. Zero historical cycles is a structural exception. Approved calendar; publication of call due 16 November 2026. Predecessor parish/canton votes are not assigned to the new office.\", \"source\": \"https://www.cne.gob.ec/cne-inicia-periodo-electoral-para-comicios-en-el-canton-borbon-y-en-la-parroquia-miss-ecuador/\"}","source":"https://www.cne.gob.ec/cne-inicia-periodo-electoral-para-comicios-en-el-canton-borbon-y-en-la-parroquia-miss-ecuador/"},{"country":"Ecuador","id":"EC-NEW-BORBON-C","year":null,"issue":"New-unit structural history exception","detail":"{\"id\": \"EC-NEW-BORBON-C\", \"issue\": \"New-unit structural history exception\", \"detail\": \"First election: no earlier elections of this office exist. Zero historical cycles is a structural exception. Approved calendar; publication of call due 16 November 2026. Predecessor parish/canton votes are not assigned to the new office.\", \"source\": \"https://www.cne.gob.ec/cne-inicia-periodo-electoral-para-comicios-en-el-canton-borbon-y-en-la-parroquia-miss-ecuador/\"}","source":"https://www.cne.gob.ec/cne-inicia-periodo-electoral-para-comicios-en-el-canton-borbon-y-en-la-parroquia-miss-ecuador/"},{"country":"Ecuador","id":"EC-NEW-MISS-ECUADOR-J","year":null,"issue":"New-unit structural history exception","detail":"{\"id\": \"EC-NEW-MISS-ECUADOR-J\", \"issue\": \"New-unit structural history exception\", \"detail\": \"First election: no earlier elections of this office exist. Zero historical cycles is a structural exception. Approved calendar; publication of call due 16 November 2026. Predecessor parish/canton votes are not assigned to the new office.\", \"source\": \"https://www.cne.gob.ec/cne-inicia-periodo-electoral-para-comicios-en-el-canton-borbon-y-en-la-parroquia-miss-ecuador/\"}","source":"https://www.cne.gob.ec/cne-inicia-periodo-electoral-para-comicios-en-el-canton-borbon-y-en-la-parroquia-miss-ecuador/"},{"country":"Ecuador","id":"EC-NEW-SHUAR-PASTAZA-J","year":2026,"issue":"Final vote certification and elected roster unavailable","detail":"{\"id\": \"EC-NEW-SHUAR-PASTAZA-J\", \"year\": 2026, \"issue\": \"Final vote certification and elected roster unavailable\", \"detail\": \"Complete preliminary votes retained. The two nonexistent older cycles are a structural exception.\", \"source\": \"SA352dc865027d9a\"}","source":"SA352dc865027d9a"},{"country":"Ecuador","id":"EC-NEW-SOSOTE-J","year":2024,"issue":"Official statistical ballot-total discrepancy","detail":"{\"id\": \"EC-NEW-SOSOTE-J\", \"year\": 2024, \"issue\": \"Official statistical ballot-total discrepancy\", \"detail\": \"Published suffragants 2,991 exceed party votes + blank + null (2,990) by 1. Source values are retained; no missing vote is allocated.\", \"source_id\": \"SA40-EC-PARISH-VOTES\", \"source\": \"https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-parroquiales/\"}","source":"https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-parroquiales/"},{"country":"Ecuador","id":"EC-NEW-JUAN-MONTALVO-J","year":2024,"issue":"Official statistical ballot-total discrepancy","detail":"{\"id\": \"EC-NEW-JUAN-MONTALVO-J\", \"year\": 2024, \"issue\": \"Official statistical ballot-total discrepancy\", \"detail\": \"Published suffragants 3,795 exceed party votes + blank + null (3,794) by 1. Source values are retained; no missing vote is allocated.\", \"source_id\": \"SA40-EC-PARISH-VOTES\", \"source\": \"https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-parroquiales/\"}","source":"https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-parroquiales/"},{"country":"Ecuador","id":"EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-M","year":2025,"issue":"Official statistical ballot-total discrepancy","detail":"{\"id\": \"EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-M\", \"year\": 2025, \"issue\": \"Official statistical ballot-total discrepancy\", \"detail\": \"Published suffragants 8,130 exceed party votes + blank + null (8,129) by 1. Source values are retained; no missing vote is allocated.\", \"source_id\": \"SA40-EC-SEVILLA-VOTES\", \"source\": \"https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-sevilla-don-bosco-2025/\"}","source":"https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-sevilla-don-bosco-2025/"},{"country":"Ecuador","id":"EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-C","year":2025,"issue":"Official statistical ballot-total discrepancy","detail":"{\"id\": \"EC-NEW-SEVILLA-DON-BOSCO-C\", \"year\": 2025, \"issue\": \"Official statistical ballot-total discrepancy\", \"detail\": \"Published suffragants 8,124 exceed party votes + blank + null (8,120) by 4. Source values are retained; no missing vote is allocated.\", \"source_id\": \"SA40-EC-SEVILLA-VOTES\", \"source\": \"https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-sevilla-don-bosco-2025/\"}","source":"https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-sevilla-don-bosco-2025/"}],"sources":[{"source_id":"S09da2a23f3","title":"CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav","url":"https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133","grade":"Official CNE electoral statistics","accessed":"2026-09-11","sha256":"952d60d8692965dbd6b931e214aeb50226d3a8a7b58c7dc86574da2b1bac9ccf","id":"S09da2a23f3","retrieved":"2026-09-11"},{"source_id":"S5c50f97474","title":"CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat","url":"https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/candidatos-2014/?wpdmdl=21126","grade":"Official CNE electoral statistics","accessed":"2026-09-11","sha256":"6f188426c3f6992f7cf6fa265a860edc7112cab15870fd5d5f9394d3a2ee3ed8","id":"S5c50f97474","retrieved":"2026-09-11"},{"source_id":"S350db9dfab","title":"CNE Ecuador — ec_organizaciones-politicas-2014.dat","url":"https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/organizaciones-politicas-2014/?wpdmdl=21128","grade":"Official CNE electoral statistics","accessed":"2026-09-11","sha256":"f38a261f8058fd928ac0a5cac1d849ccbfd3cd02be7cdce32c0fd12408bbef91","id":"S350db9dfab","retrieved":"2026-09-11"},{"source_id":"Sed7b513864","title":"CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat","url":"https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971","grade":"Official CNE electoral statistics","accessed":"2026-09-11","sha256":"4facf2c35d299e548e3cf69243580ae80675c072908865d77832f65b0a55b636","id":"Sed7b513864","retrieved":"2026-09-11"},{"source_id":"Sf4e4f8e986","title":"CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat","url":"https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/candidatos-2019/?wpdmdl=20967","grade":"Official CNE electoral statistics","accessed":"2026-09-11","sha256":"8f380b5020da8af56bf49d28521a82523bca6fa4a7cf532696aed853790e062d","id":"Sf4e4f8e986","retrieved":"2026-09-11"},{"source_id":"S4e8d571834","title":"CNE Ecuador — ec_organizaciones-politicas-2019.dat","url":"https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/organizaciones-politicas-2019/?wpdmdl=20918","grade":"Official CNE electoral statistics","accessed":"2026-09-11","sha256":"34c8be296d2dce88fda3d6fd7e7094fe79fa938682cde3c960443f5fc3a6589d","id":"S4e8d571834","retrieved":"2026-09-11"},{"source_id":"Sa5c026518f","title":"CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip","url":"https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834","grade":"Official CNE electoral statistics","accessed":"2026-09-11","sha256":"dacea6ed259a97a302aed2ed577c2b856b531463247968be72a45e1d00d31e00","id":"Sa5c026518f","retrieved":"2026-09-11"},{"source_id":"Sadcc145662","title":"CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat","url":"https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/candidatos-2023/?wpdmdl=39828","grade":"Official CNE electoral statistics","accessed":"2026-09-11","sha256":"d44cacb201dc35e2ba9c27e31463cc934af8980241deeca7ea3f132f980464eb","id":"Sadcc145662","retrieved":"2026-09-11"},{"id":"SA8cae7d7ee1","source_id":"SA8cae7d7ee1","country":"Ecuador","url":"https://www.cne.gob.ec/estadisticas/bases-de-datos/","title":"CNE database index: first local elections in 2024/2025 and Calacalí repeat","retrieved":"2026-09-13","grade":"Primary electoral authority; 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