{ "snapshot": "2026-09-13", "window_start": "2026-09-08", "window_end": "2028-03-08", "baseline_note": "Analytical alternatives to the actual-event chronology. They do not add election events, count as certified latest-three-event sequences, or resolve missing replacement returns. 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Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 46.9732588892154, 53.0267411107846, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 46.030485868529695, 53.969514131470305, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 55.0596383224317, 39.66910350134667, 0, 0, 0, 5.2712581762216235, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 0.9427730206857063, "volatility_previous": 14.300410630123633, "volatility_mean": 7.6215918254046695 }, { "id": "PY-01-005-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LORETO / CONCEPCION", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 0.5991524185298845, 2.5907590759075907, 8.592357948921006 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-01-005-C-2021-10-10", "PY-01-005-C-2015-11-15", "PY-01-005-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 90.02022515608846, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 50.29957620926494, 49.70042379073506, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 44.867986798679866, 47.45874587458746, 0, 0, 0, 7.673267326732673, 0 ], [ 46.56503662641061, 37.972678677489604, 0, 0, 5.028707186695704, 10.433577509404078, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 7.673267326732676, "volatility_previous": 9.486067197097853, "volatility_mean": 8.579667261915265 }, { "id": "PY-01-007-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN LAZARO / CONCEPCION", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 2.578687902919985, 16.321499013806704, 8.333333333333334 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-01-007-M-2021-10-10", "PY-01-007-M-2015-11-15", "PY-01-007-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 63.61502110386332, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 49.298445202882064, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 50.701554797117936 ], [ 57.273175542406314, 40.951676528599606, 0, 0, 0, 1.7751479289940828, 0 ], [ 45.482603815937146, 0.7014590347923682, 0, 0, 0, 53.81593714927048, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 50.701554797117936, "volatility_previous": 52.0407892202764, "volatility_mean": 51.37117200869717 }, { "id": "PY-01-007-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN LAZARO / CONCEPCION", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 23.744809362023403, 23.556463975472663, 13.438967136150234 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-01-007-C-2021-10-10", "PY-01-007-C-2015-11-15", "PY-01-007-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 53.49188372970932, 29.74707436768592, 0, 0, 0, 10.437901094752737, 6.3231408078520195 ], [ 50.408788962698004, 26.852324987225344, 0, 0, 8.329075114971896, 5.007664793050588, 9.402146142054164 ], [ 42.987089201877936, 15.9037558685446, 0, 0, 10.035211267605634, 29.5481220657277, 1.5258215962441315 ] ], "volatility_latest": 11.40808044917404, "volatility_previous": 26.24659342531085, "volatility_mean": 18.827336937242443 }, { "id": "PY-01-009-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YBY YA'U / CONCEPCION", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 13.07108037637456, 31.307944658393954, 25.724381625441698 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-01-009-M-2021-10-10", "PY-01-009-M-2015-11-15", "PY-01-009-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0.9626510705645352, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 43.464459811812716, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 56.535540188187284 ], [ 34.346027670803025, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 65.65397232919698 ], [ 50.19434628975265, 24.469964664310954, 0, 0, 0, 0, 25.335689045936395 ] ], "volatility_latest": 9.118432141009691, "volatility_previous": 40.318283283260584, "volatility_mean": 24.718357712135138 }, { "id": "PY-01-009-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YBY YA'U / CONCEPCION", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 7.440442587783674, 9.471168210337616, 24.088256746900072 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-01-009-C-2021-10-10", "PY-01-009-C-2015-11-15", "PY-01-009-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 51.42779154769252, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 46.29106921079372, 38.85062662301005, 0, 0, 5.746866884949757, 8.400135486056227, 0.7113017951902451 ], [ 33.746638780997905, 43.21780699133552, 0, 0, 9.08276068120705, 13.952793546459516, 0 ], [ 47.73887673231218, 23.650619985412106, 0, 0, 3.099927060539752, 0, 25.51057622173596 ] ], "volatility_latest": 13.255732224986058, "volatility_previous": 39.50281417305023, "volatility_mean": 26.379273199018144 }, { "id": "PY-02-003-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ANTEQUERA / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 3.997312730937185, 10.586552217453505, 5.115658362989324 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-003-M-2021-10-10", "PY-02-003-M-2015-11-15", "PY-02-003-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 69.57040429951353, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 51.99865636546859, 48.00134363453141, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 44.70672389127325, 55.29327610872675, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 46.79715302491103, 51.912811387900355, 0, 0, 0.13345195729537365, 1.1565836298932384, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 7.291932474195342, "volatility_previous": 3.380464720826396, "volatility_mean": 5.336198597510869 }, { "id": "PY-02-003-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ANTEQUERA / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 11.717171717171718, 5.074074074074074, 2.2522522522522523 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-003-C-2021-10-10", "PY-02-003-C-2015-11-15", "PY-02-003-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 56.111247611247606, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 55.85858585858586, 44.14141414141414, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 42.7037037037037, 47.77777777777778, 0, 0, 9.518518518518519, 0, 0 ], [ 45.990990990990994, 43.73873873873874, 0, 0, 4.36936936936937, 5.900900900900901, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 13.15488215488216, "volatility_previous": 9.18818818818819, "volatility_mean": 11.171535171535176 }, { "id": "PY-02-005-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CAPIIBARY / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 3.3339417168583076, 4.946359839488985, 0.7723664449688908 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-005-M-2021-10-10", "PY-02-005-M-2015-11-15", "PY-02-005-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 82.19245186770715, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 42.08188842246152, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 57.91811157753848 ], [ 40.217836377037095, 45.164196216526086, 0, 0, 1.1546965850462698, 9.925477028908361, 3.537793792482188 ], [ 38.02832010298219, 37.255953658013304, 0, 0, 6.146749624544089, 0, 18.568976614460414 ] ], "volatility_latest": 56.244369830480714, "volatility_previous": 20.023235861476046, "volatility_mean": 38.13380284597838 }, { "id": "PY-02-005-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CAPIIBARY / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 3.7813848866192474, 0.9471125639091442, 1.6465777012483858 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-005-C-2021-10-10", "PY-02-005-C-2015-11-15", "PY-02-005-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 86.41188764365435, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 41.96607696516506, 38.18469207854581, 0, 0, 0, 4.140069305124932, 15.709161651164205 ], [ 38.08565920710753, 39.03277177101668, 0, 0, 2.3216830106445396, 11.055234263682843, 9.504651747548404 ], [ 36.418424451140766, 34.77184674989238, 0, 0, 9.050796383986224, 0, 19.758932414980627 ] ], "volatility_latest": 10.084927661673323, "volatility_previous": 16.983394040773906, "volatility_mean": 13.534160851223614 }, { "id": "PY-02-007-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CHORE / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 31.925828882394438, 22.434963579604577, 3.788771103258736 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-007-M-2021-10-10", "PY-02-007-M-2015-11-15", "PY-02-007-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 64.88965030736672, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 35.11034969263328 ], [ 46.8054110301769, 24.37044745057232, 0, 0.37460978147762747, 0.18730489073881373, 4.068678459937565, 24.193548387096776 ], [ 43.33529642716922, 39.54652532391048, 0, 0.6772673733804476, 9.010600706713781, 0, 7.430310168826069 ] ], "volatility_latest": 29.001040582726326, "volatility_previous": 24.30203128121595, "volatility_mean": 26.65153593197114 }, { "id": "PY-02-007-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CHORE / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 32.28667550208992, 17.772162560539062, 9.82347661314451 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-007-C-2021-10-10", "PY-02-007-C-2015-11-15", "PY-02-007-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 61.994087062901414, 0, 0, 0, 0, 6.555204404118666, 31.450708532979917 ], [ 41.36660349547273, 21.615076858285956, 0, 6.032849020846494, 0.4737839545167404, 6.91724573594441, 23.59444093493367 ], [ 42.13623217313254, 32.312755559988034, 0, 2.4434028124065024, 11.379275954921711, 0, 11.728333499551212 ] ], "volatility_latest": 28.48375116547493, "volatility_previous": 22.372799379766857, "volatility_mean": 25.428275272620894 }, { "id": "PY-02-009-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "GRAL. ELIZARDO AQUINO / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 41.791044776119406, 35.50221099178774, 14.774996160344033 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-009-M-2021-10-10", "PY-02-009-M-2015-11-15", "PY-02-009-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 69.74091805125317, 27.949873275133765, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2.3092086736130666 ], [ 56.7593177511055, 14.703095388502843, 0, 0, 21.25710675931775, 7.28048010107391, 0 ], [ 56.79619106128091, 42.02119490093688, 0, 0, 1.1826140377822147, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 28.537586860391663, "volatility_previous": 27.354972822609444, "volatility_mean": 27.946279841500555 }, { "id": "PY-02-009-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "GRAL. ELIZARDO AQUINO / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 53.515893766340994, 34.548081554021515, 22.597361809045225 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-009-C-2021-10-10", "PY-02-009-C-2015-11-15", "PY-02-009-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 69.8637677170772, 16.347873950736204, 0, 0, 2.738406495114903, 8.710609605063988, 2.339342232007706 ], [ 49.99197302937871, 15.4438914753572, 0, 0, 13.75822764488682, 7.272435382886498, 13.53347246749077 ], [ 54.538316582914575, 31.940954773869347, 0, 0, 13.52072864321608, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 22.21395138525498, "volatility_previous": 21.043406852048008, "volatility_mean": 21.628679118651494 }, { "id": "PY-02-011-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "GRAL. F. RESQUIN / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 4.289732770745429, 0.665513110608279, 6.662364897564124 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-011-M-2021-10-10", "PY-02-011-M-2015-11-15", "PY-02-011-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 82.80134957306925, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 43.38959212376934, 39.09985935302391, 0, 0, 0, 3.568917018284107, 13.941631504922643 ], [ 45.095168374816986, 44.429655264208705, 0, 0, 1.583921203247704, 8.891255157726608, 0 ], [ 37.53831263106953, 44.20067752863365, 0, 0, 0.41942248749798355, 0, 17.84158735279884 ] ], "volatility_latest": 13.941631504922645, "volatility_previous": 17.84158735279884, "volatility_mean": 15.891609428860743 }, { "id": "PY-02-011-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "GRAL. F. RESQUIN / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 6.2335381913959615, 2.0605725349190984, 3.7424415754208202 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-011-C-2021-10-10", "PY-02-011-C-2015-11-15", "PY-02-011-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 76.33730583572306, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 45.618964003511856, 39.38542581211589, 0, 0, 0, 5.689201053555751, 9.306409130816505 ], [ 42.35928640575301, 40.29871387083391, 0, 0, 2.6414050615405893, 14.700594661872493, 0 ], [ 35.69210655335839, 39.43454812877921, 0, 0, 2.9089720542572315, 0, 21.964373263605165 ] ], "volatility_latest": 12.56608672857535, "volatility_previous": 22.231940256321806, "volatility_mean": 17.399013492448578 }, { "id": "PY-02-013-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "GUAJAYVI / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 0.0751201923076923, 4.344692679913518, 0.07997867235403892 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-013-M-2021-10-10", "PY-02-013-M-2015-11-15", "PY-02-013-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 93.21761106702962, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 49.96243990384615, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 50.03756009615385 ], [ 50.746422320601255, 46.40172964068774, 0, 0, 0.11325028312570781, 2.738597755585298, 0 ], [ 41.04238869634764, 41.12236736870168, 0, 0, 2.6392961876832843, 3.905625166622234, 11.290322580645162 ] ], "volatility_latest": 50.03756009615385, "volatility_previous": 14.983395896239672, "volatility_mean": 32.51047799619676 }, { "id": "PY-02-013-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "GUAJAYVI / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 8.311532999476793, 6.317670556081152, 1.4963950482927493 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-013-C-2021-10-10", "PY-02-013-C-2015-11-15", "PY-02-013-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 64.84069764330152, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 49.2712459825099, 40.959712983033114, 0, 1.9508184468196428, 0, 5.149861723596682, 2.668360864040661 ], [ 48.407442447177544, 42.0897718910964, 0, 0, 0.2522863450015768, 5.707978555660675, 3.5425207610638076 ], [ 38.702217385389744, 37.205822337097, 0, 0, 3.890627125561148, 6.203237654740851, 13.998095497211263 ] ], "volatility_latest": 2.8146219821520004, "volatility_previous": 14.589174615787202, "volatility_mean": 8.701898298969601 }, { "id": "PY-02-015-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ITACURUBI DEL ROSARIO / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 60.507880910683014, 68.31097976812912, 46.69783752191701 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-015-M-2021-10-10", "PY-02-015-M-2015-11-15", "PY-02-015-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 80.2539404553415, 19.746059544658493, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 84.15548988406456, 15.84451011593544, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 66.16014026884862, 14.377556984219755, 0, 0, 19.46230274693162, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 3.9015494287230554, "volatility_previous": 19.462302746931623, "volatility_mean": 11.681926087827339 }, { "id": "PY-02-015-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ITACURUBI DEL ROSARIO / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 68.69237217099749, 48.2895043053293, 26.254826254826256 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-015-C-2021-10-10", "PY-02-015-C-2015-11-15", "PY-02-015-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 84.34618608549874, 15.653813914501256, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 65.76681405631837, 17.47730975098906, 0, 0, 16.755876192692575, 0, 0 ], [ 54.76685476685477, 16.721116721116722, 0, 0, 28.51202851202851, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 18.579372029180377, "volatility_previous": 11.756152319335936, "volatility_mean": 15.167762174258156 }, { "id": "PY-02-017-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LIMA / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 1.7147636971978253, 2.107598447032723, 16.692667706708267 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-017-M-2021-10-10", "PY-02-017-M-2015-11-15", "PY-02-017-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 83.34797738450331, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 49.14261815140109, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 50.85738184859891 ], [ 38.74098724348308, 0, 0, 0, 1.7748197448696617, 0, 59.48419301164725 ], [ 39.06396255850234, 17.410296411856475, 0, 0, 5.741029641185648, 22.371294851794072, 15.413416536661467 ] ], "volatility_latest": 10.401630907918001, "volatility_previous": 44.070776474985784, "volatility_mean": 27.23620369145189 }, { "id": "PY-02-017-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LIMA / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 30.756442227763923, 14.252199413489736, 15.443768023069529 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-017-C-2021-10-10", "PY-02-017-C-2015-11-15", "PY-02-017-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 52.78470490440565, 19.45137157107232, 0, 0, 0.8520365752285952, 22.028262676641727, 4.883624272651704 ], [ 40.58651026392962, 10.850439882697946, 0, 0, 4.164222873900293, 0, 44.39882697947215 ], [ 34.05959628324255, 13.905799423261776, 0, 0, 16.340916372957384, 18.61582826017302, 17.077859660365267 ] ], "volatility_latest": 42.82738900549214, "volatility_previous": 33.84788129979395, "volatility_mean": 38.337635152643045 }, { "id": "PY-02-019-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "NUEVA GERMANIA / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 29.17823431426985, 37.61329305135952, 11.800486618004866 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-019-M-2021-10-10", "PY-02-019-M-2015-11-15", "PY-02-019-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 57.69017212659634, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 42.30982787340366 ], [ 68.80664652567975, 31.19335347432024, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 50.44606650446067, 38.6455798864558, 0, 0, 8.75912408759124, 2.149229521492295, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 42.30982787340366, "volatility_previous": 18.36058002121909, "volatility_mean": 30.335203947311378 }, { "id": "PY-02-019-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "NUEVA GERMANIA / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 37.02068965517241, 41.15079365079365, 17.95935296557445 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-019-C-2021-10-10", "PY-02-019-C-2015-11-15", "PY-02-019-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 58.786206896551725, 0, 0, 0, 2.372413793103448, 6.2620689655172415, 32.57931034482759 ], [ 65.83333333333333, 24.682539682539684, 0, 0, 9.484126984126984, 0, 0 ], [ 47.200331812525924, 29.24097884695147, 0, 0, 10.327664869348817, 8.627125673994193, 4.6038987971795935 ] ], "volatility_latest": 38.84137931034483, "volatility_previous": 18.633001520807404, "volatility_mean": 28.737190415576116 }, { "id": "PY-02-021-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN ESTANISLAO / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 55.8459718188663, 38.39810581319399, 22.069253233208176 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-021-M-2021-10-10", "PY-02-021-M-2015-11-15", "PY-02-021-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 77.05711519845111, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 22.942884801548885 ], [ 61.33246244284781, 22.93435662965382, 0, 0, 2.2207707380796866, 13.51241018941868, 0 ], [ 50.24614100959533, 0, 0, 0, 0.6925323320817689, 0, 49.061326658322905 ] ], "volatility_latest": 38.66753755715219, "volatility_previous": 49.061326658322905, "volatility_mean": 43.86443210773754 }, { "id": "PY-02-021-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN ESTANISLAO / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 55.960967331353416, 23.64406779661017, 24.123907588474516 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-021-C-2021-10-10", "PY-02-021-C-2015-11-15", "PY-02-021-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 69.4102672889266, 13.449299957573187, 0, 2.21680101824353, 0, 6.12537123462028, 8.798260500636403 ], [ 47.771186440677965, 24.127118644067796, 0, 10.516949152542374, 5.38135593220339, 10.932203389830509, 1.271186440677966 ], [ 46.70762308557584, 22.583715497101323, 0, 5.009950679242018, 2.5006489573418706, 0, 23.198061780738943 ] ], "volatility_latest": 29.166154908207073, "volatility_previous": 21.92687534006098, "volatility_mean": 25.546515124134025 }, { "id": "PY-02-023-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN PABLO / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 5.414273995077933, 14.480322906155399, 3.508771929824561 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-023-M-2021-10-10", "PY-02-023-M-2015-11-15", "PY-02-023-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 60.282307690620826, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 46.59557013945857, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 53.40442986054143 ], [ 38.24419778002018, 1.1099899091826437, 0, 0, 7.568113017154389, 52.72452068617558, 0.35317860746720486 ], [ 39.35672514619883, 12.339181286549708, 0, 0, 0.8771929824561403, 0, 47.42690058479533 ] ], "volatility_latest": 61.40262361251261, "volatility_previous": 59.41544072087383, "volatility_mean": 60.40903216669322 }, { "id": "PY-02-023-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN PABLO / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 10.339190845933796, 3.9690721649484537, 18.100358422939067 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-023-C-2021-10-10", "PY-02-023-C-2015-11-15", "PY-02-023-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 53.9786400033064, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 46.62852472415202, 0, 0, 0, 4.004903964037597, 7.968941561095218, 41.39762975071517 ], [ 27.47422680412371, 15.309278350515465, 0, 0, 15.0, 31.443298969072163, 10.773195876288659 ], [ 22.580645161290324, 12.066905615292711, 0, 0, 8.124253285543608, 0, 57.228195937873366 ] ], "volatility_latest": 49.778731794454814, "volatility_previous": 46.4550000615847, "volatility_mean": 48.116865928019756 }, { "id": "PY-02-000-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN PEDRO DEL YCUAMANDYYU / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 8.609858842657601, 13.740102468560783, 4.78955007256894 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-000-M-2021-10-10", "PY-02-000-M-2015-11-15", "PY-02-000-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 51.16549473290155, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 35.40758258813096, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 64.59241741186904 ], [ 53.34575376494333, 39.60565129638255, 0, 0, 3.7183667132432854, 3.3302282254308335, 0 ], [ 48.165042504665145, 43.37549243209621, 0, 0, 5.432303545511092, 3.0271615177275555, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 64.59241741186904, "volatility_previous": 5.483777967981467, "volatility_mean": 35.03809768992525 }, { "id": "PY-02-000-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN PEDRO DEL YCUAMANDYYU / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 20.767978691920685, 16.46380018969333, 6.038851351351352 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-000-C-2021-10-10", "PY-02-000-C-2015-11-15", "PY-02-000-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 9.980937964022264, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 44.41402781888132, 23.64604912696064, 0, 0.9914175791654336, 0, 1.191180822728618, 29.757324652263982 ], [ 49.48624723363895, 33.02244704394562, 0, 0, 4.813468226367373, 4.600063231109706, 8.07777426493835 ], [ 47.79349662162162, 41.754645270270274, 0, 0, 5.310388513513513, 4.149070945945946, 0.9923986486486487 ] ], "volatility_latest": 22.670967966491066, "volatility_previous": 9.229118513470793, "volatility_mean": 15.950043239980928 }, { "id": "PY-02-025-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "TACUATI / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 38.12681309573146, 19.0865093768905, 1.3177710843373494 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-025-M-2021-10-10", "PY-02-025-M-2015-11-15", "PY-02-025-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 69.06340654786572, 30.93659345213427, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 56.503327283726556, 37.41681790683606, 0, 0, 6.0798548094373865, 0, 0 ], [ 41.528614457831324, 42.846385542168676, 0, 9.939759036144578, 4.367469879518072, 0, 1.3177710843373494 ] ], "volatility_latest": 12.560079264139171, "volatility_previous": 16.687097755814545, "volatility_mean": 14.623588509976859 }, { "id": "PY-02-025-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "TACUATI / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 51.53082333471245, 22.813089993706733, 2.986217457886677 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-025-C-2021-10-10", "PY-02-025-C-2015-11-15", "PY-02-025-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 74.36905254447663, 22.83822920976417, 0, 0, 0, 2.7927182457592057, 0 ], [ 50.818124606670864, 28.005034612964128, 0, 0, 10.604153555695406, 10.572687224669604, 0 ], [ 41.50076569678407, 38.5145482388974, 0, 7.542113323124043, 5.704441041347627, 0, 6.738131699846861 ] ], "volatility_latest": 23.550927937805767, "volatility_previous": 24.789758648904176, "volatility_mean": 24.17034329335497 }, { "id": "PY-02-027-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "UNION / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 33.15405301575105, 11.899641577060931, 21.746031746031747 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-027-M-2021-10-10", "PY-02-027-M-2015-11-15", "PY-02-027-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 66.57702650787553, 33.42297349212447, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 54.48028673835125, 42.58064516129032, 0, 0, 0.21505376344086022, 2.7240143369175627, 0 ], [ 54.404761904761905, 32.65873015873016, 0, 0, 0.23809523809523808, 0, 12.698412698412698 ] ], "volatility_latest": 12.096739769524275, "volatility_previous": 12.721454173067075, "volatility_mean": 12.409096971295675 }, { "id": "PY-02-027-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "UNION / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 38.30495928941525, 16.20318872821654, 22.051074179164978 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-027-C-2021-10-10", "PY-02-027-C-2015-11-15", "PY-02-027-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 67.72760917838637, 29.422649888971133, 0, 0, 0, 2.849740932642487, 0 ], [ 54.17130144605117, 37.96811271783463, 0, 0, 4.301075268817204, 3.5595105672969964, 0 ], [ 52.817186866639645, 30.766112687474667, 0, 0, 2.63477908390758, 0, 13.78192136197811 ] ], "volatility_latest": 13.556307732335208, "volatility_previous": 13.781921361978107, "volatility_mean": 13.669114547156656 }, { "id": "PY-02-001-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "25 DE DICIEMBRE / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 12.198925662796743, 11.879211380084852, 13.800368712141164 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-001-M-2021-10-10", "PY-02-001-M-2015-11-15", "PY-02-001-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 38.68422158541192, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 48.32784612718766, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 51.672153872812345 ], [ 48.5150985774894, 36.63588719740454, 0, 0, 10.007486897928626, 4.841527327177439, 0 ], [ 54.358704240189624, 40.55833552804846, 0, 0, 0.5794047932578351, 0, 4.503555438504082 ] ], "volatility_latest": 51.672153872812345, "volatility_previous": 14.269609431848227, "volatility_mean": 32.970881652330284 }, { "id": "PY-02-001-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "25 DE DICIEMBRE / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 23.538594969644407, 8.61850443599493, 10.973357953046689 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-001-C-2021-10-10", "PY-02-001-C-2015-11-15", "PY-02-001-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 10.969779460551033, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 54.18907198612316, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 45.81092801387684 ], [ 37.034220532319395, 28.415716096324463, 0, 0, 8.365019011406844, 6.818757921419518, 19.366286438529784 ], [ 47.29622790820364, 36.32286995515695, 0, 0, 7.755209707201266, 0, 8.625692429438143 ] ], "volatility_latest": 43.59949302915082, "volatility_previous": 18.169161234716736, "volatility_mean": 30.88432713193378 }, { "id": "PY-02-029-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "VILLA DEL ROSARIO / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 53.48079161816065, 30.968553459119498, 31.63374265883609 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-029-M-2021-10-10", "PY-02-029-M-2015-11-15", "PY-02-029-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 76.34458672875436, 22.863795110593713, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0.7916181606519208 ], [ 63.84905660377358, 2.7672955974842766, 0, 0, 0, 32.880503144654085, 0.5031446540880503 ], [ 64.60224239188467, 1.7885744794447411, 0, 0, 0.6406833956219968, 0, 32.96849973304859 ] ], "volatility_latest": 32.880503144654085, "volatility_previous": 33.85922426269362, "volatility_mean": 33.36986370367386 }, { "id": "PY-02-029-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "VILLA DEL ROSARIO / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 48.83985441310282, 38.064516129032256, 27.031419284940412 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-029-C-2021-10-10", "PY-02-029-C-2015-11-15", "PY-02-029-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 61.64695177434031, 12.807097361237489, 0, 1.6606005459508644, 9.963603275705186, 9.417652411282985, 4.5040946314831665 ], [ 58.81290322580645, 9.316129032258065, 0, 0, 3.8193548387096774, 20.748387096774195, 7.303225806451613 ], [ 55.11917659804984, 11.05092091007584, 0, 0, 5.742145178764897, 0, 28.087757313109424 ] ], "volatility_latest": 14.129865860459656, "volatility_previous": 24.442113724530806, "volatility_mean": 19.28598979249523 }, { "id": "PY-02-031-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YATAITY DEL NORTE / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 18.91891891891892, 10.673059847274018, 4.856839872746553 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-031-M-2021-10-10", "PY-02-031-M-2015-11-15", "PY-02-031-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 24.805233535958937, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 40.54054054054054, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 59.45945945945946 ], [ 41.12946190729888, 51.8025217545729, 0, 0, 0.7458710708577517, 6.322145267270467, 0 ], [ 36.20360551431601, 41.060445387062565, 0, 0, 2.2905620360551433, 0, 20.44538706256628 ] ], "volatility_latest": 59.45945945945946, "volatility_previous": 21.990078027763673, "volatility_mean": 40.72476874361156 }, { "id": "PY-02-031-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YATAITY DEL NORTE / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 15.407019076743847, 12.956569144103216, 5.389735881468757 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-031-C-2021-10-10", "PY-02-031-C-2015-11-15", "PY-02-031-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 31.649221112879268, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 40.45434687636523, 55.86136595310907, 0, 0, 0, 3.6842871705257028, 0 ], [ 37.85208068326367, 50.80864982736689, 0, 0, 2.9983645284390334, 8.340904960930402, 0 ], [ 35.73115739746618, 41.120893278934936, 0, 0, 4.036933648271419, 0, 19.111015675327465 ] ], "volatility_latest": 7.654982318843734, "volatility_previous": 20.149584795159853, "volatility_mean": 13.902283557001795 }, { "id": "PY-03-003-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ALTOS / CORDILLERA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 32.63272614043282, 11.719567492152075, 13.942832205978616 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-003-M-2021-10-10", "PY-03-003-M-2015-11-15", "PY-03-003-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 31.760859411489957, 64.39358555192278, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3.8455550365872644 ], [ 44.14021625392396, 55.85978374607604, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 39.40650229107572, 53.34933449705433, 0, 0, 7.091424830896792, 0.1527383809731617, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 12.379356842434005, "volatility_previous": 7.244163211869953, "volatility_mean": 9.81176002715198 }, { "id": "PY-03-003-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ALTOS / CORDILLERA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 28.218585983328186, 11.885838150289016, 13.052120141342757 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-003-C-2021-10-10", "PY-03-003-C-2015-11-15", "PY-03-003-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 32.3402284655758, 60.55881444890398, 0, 0, 0, 0, 7.100957085520222 ], [ 38.403179190751445, 50.28901734104046, 0, 0, 9.21242774566474, 2.0953757225433525, 0 ], [ 37.080388692579504, 50.13250883392226, 0, 0, 11.307420494699647, 1.4796819787985867, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 17.37075419338374, "volatility_previous": 2.0949927490349083, "volatility_mean": 9.732873471209324 }, { "id": "PY-03-005-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ARROYOS Y ESTEROS / CORDILLERA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 8.658338895775723, 27.925407925407924, 3.104575163398693 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-005-M-2021-10-10", "PY-03-005-M-2015-11-15", "PY-03-005-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 30.5845838428616, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 52.90359492705254, 44.24525603127682, 0, 0, 0, 2.4887956517593213, 0.36235338991131877 ], [ 61.86480186480186, 33.93939393939394, 0, 0, 4.195804195804196, 0, 0 ], [ 45.60308972073678, 42.49851455733808, 0, 0, 11.898395721925134, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 13.15701113355352, "volatility_previous": 16.261712144065083, "volatility_mean": 14.709361638809302 }, { "id": "PY-03-005-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ARROYOS Y ESTEROS / CORDILLERA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 22.30878859857482, 28.787171103845555, 7.8031212484994 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-005-C-2021-10-10", "PY-03-005-C-2015-11-15", "PY-03-005-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 59.07838479809976, 36.76959619952494, 0, 1.168646080760095, 0, 1.7387173396674585, 1.2446555819477434 ], [ 61.7157091701697, 32.92853806632415, 0, 0, 5.35575276350615, 0, 0 ], [ 46.54861944777911, 38.74549819927971, 0, 2.3709483793517405, 12.334933973589436, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 7.993077135576089, "volatility_previous": 15.167089722390589, "volatility_mean": 11.58008342898334 }, { "id": "PY-03-007-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ATYRA / CORDILLERA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 5.678896938537042, 0.8661637328862811, 0.17439832577607256 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-007-M-2021-10-10", "PY-03-007-M-2015-11-15", "PY-03-007-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 81.57686442217143, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 52.83944846926852, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 47.16055153073148 ], [ 50.43308186644314, 49.56691813355686, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 47.15730728985002, 47.33170561562609, 0, 0, 3.540286013254273, 1.9707010812696197, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 49.56691813355686, "volatility_previous": 5.510987094523892, "volatility_mean": 27.538952614040376 }, { "id": "PY-03-007-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ATYRA / CORDILLERA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 13.22112594312246, 5.94579253583085, 1.8990680499384562 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-007-C-2021-10-10", "PY-03-007-C-2015-11-15", "PY-03-007-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 50.46839934191711, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 55.4962275101567, 0, 0, 2.2286709228090538, 0, 0, 42.27510156703424 ], [ 49.453668227614585, 43.50787569178374, 0, 0, 0.9649496239534554, 4.583510713778913, 1.489995742869306 ], [ 46.8788464919993, 44.97977844206084, 0, 0, 4.888341832248989, 3.253033233690874, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 49.0563360295161, "volatility_previous": 5.395294958572634, "volatility_mean": 27.22581549404437 }, { "id": "PY-03-000-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CAACUPE / CORDILLERA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 23.801684532924963, 11.275574640060622, 2.937712640669982 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-000-M-2021-10-10", "PY-03-000-M-2015-11-15", "PY-03-000-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 10.212728120799197, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 35.176110260336905, 58.97779479326187, 0, 0, 0, 0, 5.846094946401225 ], [ 43.743369537762064, 55.01894417782268, 0, 0, 1.2376862844152563, 0, 0 ], [ 48.390473697984824, 45.45276105731484, 0, 0, 3.6312483643025386, 2.0348076419785395, 0.49070923841926195 ] ], "volatility_latest": 9.804945561840414, "volatility_previous": 9.566183120507844, "volatility_mean": 9.685564341174128 }, { "id": "PY-03-000-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CAACUPE / CORDILLERA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 14.677276746242264, 4.851948051948052, 4.390018484288355 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-000-C-2021-10-10", "PY-03-000-C-2015-11-15", "PY-03-000-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 46.49523844120695, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 37.262138161688384, 51.93941490793065, 1.2224656902318072, 0, 0, 0, 9.575981240149156 ], [ 41.85454545454545, 46.70649350649351, 1.1532467532467532, 0, 2.675324675324675, 3.9376623376623376, 3.672727272727273 ], [ 46.27673620279905, 41.886717718510695, 0, 0, 4.475838394507526, 4.489041457618168, 2.871666226564563 ] ], "volatility_latest": 11.205394305844079, "volatility_previous": 6.774083587392278, "volatility_mean": 8.989738946618179 }, { "id": "PY-03-009-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CARAGUATAY / CORDILLERA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 2.644746247319514, 10.335977601493234, 21.107784431137723 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-009-M-2021-10-10", "PY-03-009-M-2015-11-15", "PY-03-009-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 66.00790264023274, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 47.53395282344532, 50.17869907076483, 0, 2.28734810578985, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 50.536630891273916, 40.20065328978068, 0, 0, 0, 9.262715818945404, 0 ], [ 57.80938123752495, 36.70159680638722, 0, 0, 4.091816367265469, 0, 1.3972055888223553 ] ], "volatility_latest": 12.265393886774, "volatility_previous": 12.761772302338862, "volatility_mean": 12.51358309455643 }, { "id": "PY-03-009-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CARAGUATAY / CORDILLERA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 17.131334385411186, 16.10030466369815, 21.605876393110435 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-009-C-2021-10-10", "PY-03-009-C-2015-11-15", "PY-03-009-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 13.652601651664009, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 55.53217604769419, 38.40084166228301, 0, 4.559004032965106, 0, 1.507978257057689, 0 ], [ 54.23013827044762, 38.12983360674947, 0, 0, 0, 7.640028122802906, 0 ], [ 57.142857142857146, 35.53698074974671, 0, 0, 5.572441742654509, 0, 1.7477203647416413 ] ], "volatility_latest": 6.132049865745216, "volatility_previous": 10.232880979805673, "volatility_mean": 8.182465422775444 }, { "id": "PY-03-011-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "EMBOSCADA / CORDILLERA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 10.663615560640732, 11.096643518518519, 17.6789814235024 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-011-M-2021-10-10", "PY-03-011-M-2015-11-15", "PY-03-011-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 42.52469732854883, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 43.24942791762014, 53.91304347826087, 0, 0, 0, 2.8375286041189933, 0 ], [ 41.04456018518518, 52.1412037037037, 0, 0, 2.9947916666666665, 0, 3.8194444444444446 ], [ 40.45084533500313, 58.12982675850553, 0, 0, 1.419327906491338, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 6.8142361111111125, "volatility_previous": 5.988623054801827, "volatility_mean": 6.401429582956469 }, { "id": "PY-03-011-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "EMBOSCADA / CORDILLERA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 7.076712015548188, 6.537780401416765, 10.900064752859919 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-011-C-2021-10-10", "PY-03-011-C-2015-11-15", "PY-03-011-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 63.51316097480033, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 44.963987652909566, 52.040699668457755, 0, 0, 0, 2.9953126786326743, 0 ], [ 40.7172373081464, 47.25501770956316, 0, 0, 4.176505312868949, 0, 7.851239669421487 ], [ 39.04597453054176, 49.94603928340168, 0, 0, 2.6764515432764946, 0, 8.331534642780056 ] ], "volatility_latest": 12.027744982290434, "volatility_previous": 3.171316547197091, "volatility_mean": 7.599530764743763 }, { "id": "PY-03-013-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "EUSEBIO AYALA / CORDILLERA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 10.021877278883217, 50.61230816927608, 21.76673317612915 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-013-M-2021-10-10", "PY-03-013-M-2015-11-15", "PY-03-013-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 54.0577143452443, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 45.94228565475571 ], [ 69.01255619283832, 18.400248023562238, 0, 0, 10.075957215935514, 2.511238567663928, 0 ], [ 55.541447487756216, 33.774714311627065, 0, 0, 9.486667875929621, 1.1971703246871033, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 45.9422856547557, "volatility_previous": 15.374466288064824, "volatility_mean": 30.658375971410262 }, { "id": "PY-03-013-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "EUSEBIO AYALA / CORDILLERA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 17.783956338173205, 28.101955755049694, 21.72038980509745 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-013-C-2021-10-10", "PY-03-013-C-2015-11-15", "PY-03-013-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 55.071568324580376, 37.287611986407164, 2.5949953660797034, 0, 1.2460096797446194, 2.6361857687158894, 1.163628874472248 ], [ 51.07406219942289, 22.972106444373196, 8.01538954793203, 0, 12.84065405578711, 5.097787752484771, 0 ], [ 47.395052473763116, 25.67466266866567, 0, 0, 10.326086956521738, 1.8928035982008995, 14.711394302848575 ] ], "volatility_latest": 19.476640541663702, "volatility_previous": 17.413950527141047, "volatility_mean": 18.445295534402376 }, { "id": "PY-03-015-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ISLA PUCU / CORDILLERA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 22.488452655889144, 24.00125825731362, 4.34616850934045 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-015-M-2021-10-10", "PY-03-015-M-2015-11-15", "PY-03-015-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 38.53926096997691, 61.02771362586605, 0, 0, 0, 0.4330254041570439, 0 ], [ 37.99937087134319, 62.00062912865681, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 51.31528783835303, 46.96911932901258, 0, 0, 1.715592832634388, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 0.9729155027907629, "volatility_previous": 15.031509799644232, "volatility_mean": 8.002212651217498 }, { "id": "PY-03-015-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ISLA PUCU / CORDILLERA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 22.034383954154727, 4.646596858638744, 10.76 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-015-C-2021-10-10", "PY-03-015-C-2015-11-15", "PY-03-015-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 21.546952849577707, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 38.62464183381089, 60.65902578796562, 0, 0, 0, 0.7163323782234957, 0 ], [ 38.90706806282723, 43.553664921465966, 0, 0, 0, 10.569371727748692, 6.969895287958115 ], [ 48.24, 37.48, 0, 0, 5.76, 8.52, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 17.10536086649965, "volatility_previous": 15.092931937172775, "volatility_mean": 16.099146401836215 }, { "id": "PY-03-017-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ITACURUBI DE LA CORDILLERA / CORDILLERA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 9.725477067291598, 6.60377358490566, 12.89532293986637 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-017-M-2021-10-10", "PY-03-017-M-2015-11-15", "PY-03-017-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 54.470246950833534, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 41.19517910947439, 50.92065617676599, 0, 7.884164713759625, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 53.301886792452834, 46.698113207547166, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 56.12472160356347, 43.229398663697104, 0, 0, 0.6458797327394209, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 12.106707682978445, "volatility_previous": 3.468714543850061, "volatility_mean": 7.787711113414253 }, { "id": "PY-03-017-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ITACURUBI DE LA CORDILLERA / CORDILLERA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 3.3991962491627596, 7.413361914969632, 13.872163038443723 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-017-C-2021-10-10", "PY-03-017-C-2015-11-15", "PY-03-017-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 71.74628686083541, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 45.86403215003349, 49.26322839919625, 0, 0, 0, 0, 4.872739450770261 ], [ 42.550911039657024, 35.13754912468739, 5.769917827795641, 16.54162200785995, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 50.8105604446503, 36.938397406206576, 0, 0, 1.3200555812876331, 0, 10.930986567855488 ] ], "volatility_latest": 22.311539835655587, "volatility_previous": 22.311539835655587, "volatility_mean": 22.311539835655587 }, { "id": "PY-03-019-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "JUAN DE MENA / CORDILLERA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 11.393360160965795, 11.098570353649361, 26.967285587975244 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-019-M-2021-10-10", "PY-03-019-M-2015-11-15", "PY-03-019-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 35.68842119264095, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 41.272635814889334, 52.66599597585513, 0, 0, 0.8551307847082495, 0, 5.206237424547283 ], [ 35.214446952595935, 46.3130173062453, 0, 0, 1.3167795334838224, 0, 17.155756207674944 ], [ 18.39080459770115, 46.02122015915119, 0, 0, 16.534040671971706, 0, 19.05393457117595 ] ], "volatility_latest": 12.411167531903233, "volatility_previous": 17.11543950198889, "volatility_mean": 14.763303516946063 }, { "id": "PY-03-019-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "JUAN DE MENA / CORDILLERA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 4.79297365119197, 11.84159938485198, 27.2565584704313 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-019-C-2021-10-10", "PY-03-019-C-2015-11-15", "PY-03-019-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 54.23040073393046, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 43.01129234629862, 47.80426599749059, 0, 0, 2.4592220828105393, 0, 6.725219573400251 ], [ 30.526720492118415, 42.368319876970396, 0, 0, 9.265667051134178, 5.190311418685121, 12.648981161091887 ], [ 18.63050244553135, 45.88706091596265, 0, 0, 17.029791018230323, 0, 18.45264562027568 ] ], "volatility_latest": 17.920517974700395, "volatility_previous": 17.08652946527219, "volatility_mean": 17.50352371998629 }, { "id": "PY-03-021-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LOMA GRANDE / CORDILLERA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 0.7062978222483814, 15.01316944688323, 23.432012042147516 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-021-M-2021-10-10", "PY-03-021-M-2015-11-15", "PY-03-021-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 63.64534634185625, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 47.527957622130664, 48.234255444379045, 4.2377869334902885, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 57.50658472344161, 42.49341527655839, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 59.55845459106874, 36.126442548921226, 0, 0, 3.5122930255895635, 0, 0.8028098344204716 ] ], "volatility_latest": 9.978627101310947, "volatility_previous": 6.366972727637161, "volatility_mean": 8.172799914474053 }, { "id": "PY-03-021-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LOMA GRANDE / CORDILLERA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 11.163199531204219, 16.01423487544484, 23.775510204081634 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-021-C-2021-10-10", "PY-03-021-C-2015-11-15", "PY-03-021-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 30.60129399117927, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 53.41341927922649, 42.25021974802227, 4.336360972751245, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 58.00711743772242, 41.99288256227758, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 58.826530612244895, 35.05102040816327, 0, 0, 4.438775510204081, 0, 1.683673469387755 ] ], "volatility_latest": 4.593698158495933, "volatility_previous": 6.941862154114311, "volatility_mean": 5.767780156305122 }, { "id": "PY-03-023-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "MBOCAYATY DEL YHAGUY / CORDILLERA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 16.890664729386124, 19.821428571428573, 63.40482573726541 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-023-M-2021-10-10", "PY-03-023-M-2015-11-15", "PY-03-023-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 41.554667635306934, 58.445332364693066, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 40.089285714285715, 59.910714285714285, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 15.013404825737265, 78.41823056300268, 0, 0, 4.490616621983914, 2.0777479892761392, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 1.4653819210212191, "volatility_previous": 25.07588088854845, "volatility_mean": 13.270631404784835 }, { "id": "PY-03-023-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "MBOCAYATY DEL YHAGUY / CORDILLERA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 50.0, 21.35835567470956, 53.99737876802097 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-023-C-2021-10-10", "PY-03-023-C-2015-11-15", "PY-03-023-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 25.0, 75.0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 39.32082216264522, 60.67917783735478, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 17.627785058977718, 71.62516382699869, 0, 0, 7.929226736566186, 2.8178243774574048, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 14.320822162645221, "volatility_previous": 21.6930371036675, "volatility_mean": 18.00692963315636 }, { "id": "PY-03-025-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "NUEVA COLOMBIA / CORDILLERA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 11.634524185899462, 8.41494377947044, 11.1164813919768 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-025-M-2021-10-10", "PY-03-025-M-2015-11-15", "PY-03-025-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 46.91577107710756, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 43.534619032564024, 55.16914321846348, 0, 0, 0, 1.2962377489724946, 0 ], [ 45.04896626768226, 53.4639100471527, 0, 0, 0, 1.4871236851650345, 0 ], [ 52.730787820203, 41.61430642822619, 0, 0, 1.8849685838569357, 0, 3.7699371677138713 ] ], "volatility_latest": 1.7052331713107787, "volatility_previous": 13.336727304091545, "volatility_mean": 7.520980237701162 }, { "id": "PY-03-025-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "NUEVA COLOMBIA / CORDILLERA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 2.641509433962264, 1.177336276674025, 10.36319612590799 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-025-C-2021-10-10", "PY-03-025-C-2015-11-15", "PY-03-025-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 85.12786922014818, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 50.25157232704402, 47.61006289308176, 0, 0, 0, 2.138364779874214, 0 ], [ 47.792494481236204, 46.61515820456218, 0, 0, 0, 5.592347314201619, 0 ], [ 50.31476997578692, 39.95157384987893, 0, 0, 5.084745762711864, 0, 4.648910411622276 ] ], "volatility_latest": 3.4539825343274035, "volatility_previous": 12.25593166888486, "volatility_mean": 7.854957101606132 }, { "id": "PY-03-027-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "PIRIBEBUY / CORDILLERA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 5.966347120734732, 0.7758931793576326, 1.3429446035351043 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-027-M-2021-10-10", "PY-03-027-M-2015-11-15", "PY-03-027-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 80.2656465669918, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 46.544211302540724, 52.510558423275455, 0.33518804049071527, 0, 0, 0, 0.6100422336931018 ], [ 48.881270299530854, 49.657163478888485, 0, 0, 0, 1.4615662215806569, 0 ], [ 43.13222079589217, 41.789276192357065, 0, 0, 14.239162634541325, 0.8393403772094401, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 3.798625218570787, "volatility_previous": 14.239162634541325, "volatility_mean": 9.018893926556055 }, { "id": "PY-03-027-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "PIRIBEBUY / CORDILLERA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 11.125898323130157, 1.9764312888558968, 4.255106127352823 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-027-C-2021-10-10", "PY-03-027-C-2015-11-15", "PY-03-027-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 61.53010503364927, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 51.058025019962734, 39.932126696832576, 0.5722651051370774, 2.362257120042587, 0.9848283204684589, 0.6920415224913494, 4.398456215065211 ], [ 45.03108471745384, 43.05465342859794, 2.1434536512944233, 0, 2.3475920942748445, 7.423216108378956, 0 ], [ 41.83019623548258, 37.57509010812976, 3.8346015218261913, 0, 15.618742490989186, 1.1413696435722867, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 12.787653637616698, "volatility_previous": 14.962298267246107, "volatility_mean": 13.874975952431402 }, { "id": "PY-03-001-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "1RO. DE MARZO / CORDILLERA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 6.042817679558011, 10.87962962962963, 30.762639245929734 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-001-M-2021-10-10", "PY-03-001-M-2015-11-15", "PY-03-001-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 50.17078289391665, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 40.74585635359116, 46.78867403314917, 0, 0, 0, 0, 12.465469613259668 ], [ 44.56018518518518, 55.43981481481482, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 29.177377892030847, 59.94001713796058, 0, 0, 10.882604970008568, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 12.46546961325967, "volatility_previous": 15.382807293154334, "volatility_mean": 13.924138453207002 }, { "id": "PY-03-001-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "1RO. DE MARZO / CORDILLERA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 17.586206896551722, 17.20985691573927, 27.828746177370032 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-001-C-2021-10-10", "PY-03-001-C-2015-11-15", "PY-03-001-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 7.5122208480509105, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 31.17241379310345, 48.758620689655174, 0, 0, 0, 0, 20.06896551724138 ], [ 29.093799682034977, 46.30365659777424, 0, 0, 3.179650238473768, 0, 21.42289348171701 ], [ 27.08606378331149, 54.914809960681524, 0, 0, 12.145041502839668, 5.854084753167322, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 4.533578202949401, "volatility_previous": 23.4306293804405, "volatility_mean": 13.98210379169495 }, { "id": "PY-03-029-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN BERNARDINO / CORDILLERA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 18.068772998350465, 11.329424813817145, 8.009708737864077 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-029-M-2021-10-10", "PY-03-029-M-2015-11-15", "PY-03-029-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 24.79468941529086, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 52.582159624413144, 34.51338662606268, 0, 0, 0, 5.405405405405405, 7.4990483441187665 ], [ 44.33528759309143, 55.66471240690857, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 38.55987055016181, 14.870550161812298, 0, 0, 0, 0, 46.56957928802589 ] ], "volatility_latest": 21.151325780845887, "volatility_previous": 46.56957928802589, "volatility_mean": 33.86045253443589 }, { "id": "PY-03-029-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN BERNARDINO / CORDILLERA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 11.195445920303605, 1.9284654689302785, 1.9993444772205835 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-029-C-2021-10-10", "PY-03-029-C-2015-11-15", "PY-03-029-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 62.52129179708348, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 40.65781151170145, 29.462365591397848, 1.1891208096141683, 4.731182795698925, 3.8456672991777356, 6.1986084756483235, 13.915243516761542 ], [ 33.673973957474864, 31.745508488544587, 11.356518872589419, 0, 10.285149167628152, 2.7196307895170597, 10.21921872424592 ], [ 40.593248115372006, 20.812848246476566, 0, 0, 0, 0, 38.593903638151424 ] ], "volatility_latest": 18.890022828572402, "volatility_previous": 35.29395907180265, "volatility_mean": 27.091990950187522 }, { "id": "PY-03-031-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN JOSE OBRERO / CORDILLERA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 15.758176412289396, 7.683679192372406, 19.533333333333335 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-031-M-2021-10-10", "PY-03-031-M-2015-11-15", "PY-03-031-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 31.433285307906534, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 42.1209117938553, 57.8790882061447, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 44.419517666853615, 52.103196859226024, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3.477285473920359 ], [ 32.46666666666667, 52.0, 0, 0, 10.466666666666667, 0.8666666666666667, 4.2 ] ], "volatility_latest": 5.775891346918676, "volatility_previous": 12.056047859412972, "volatility_mean": 8.915969603165824 }, { "id": "PY-03-031-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN JOSE OBRERO / CORDILLERA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 27.82561894510226, 7.557117750439367, 18.10810810810811 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-031-C-2021-10-10", "PY-03-031-C-2015-11-15", "PY-03-031-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 33.79978471474704, 61.6254036598493, 0, 0, 0, 0, 4.57481162540366 ], [ 42.99941417691857, 50.55653192735794, 0, 0, 0, 0, 6.444053895723491 ], [ 31.89189189189189, 50.0, 0, 0, 10.608108108108109, 1.9594594594594594, 5.54054054054054 ] ], "volatility_latest": 11.06887173249136, "volatility_previous": 12.567567567567568, "volatility_mean": 11.818219650029464 }, { "id": "PY-03-033-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SANTA ELENA / CORDILLERA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 36.97171381031614, 5.224564619615032, 0.3555906756222837 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-033-M-2021-10-10", "PY-03-033-M-2015-11-15", "PY-03-033-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 68.48585690515807, 31.51414309484193, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 52.61228230980752, 47.38771769019248, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 45.67364677992888, 46.02923745555117, 0, 0, 7.585934413275385, 0, 0.7111813512445674 ] ], "volatility_latest": 15.873574595350552, "volatility_previous": 8.297115764519951, "volatility_mean": 12.085345179935253 }, { "id": "PY-03-033-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SANTA ELENA / CORDILLERA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 29.4, 18.954884777669587, 6.025538707102953 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-033-C-2021-10-10", "PY-03-033-C-2015-11-15", "PY-03-033-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 61.733333333333334, 32.333333333333336, 0, 0, 5.933333333333334, 0, 0 ], [ 46.802986043492375, 27.848101265822784, 0, 0, 10.613437195715676, 13.047711781888998, 1.6877637130801688 ], [ 47.645650438946525, 41.62011173184357, 0, 0, 7.462090981644054, 0, 3.2721468475658417 ] ], "volatility_latest": 19.41557935735151, "volatility_previous": 16.199057995960615, "volatility_mean": 17.807318676656063 }, { "id": "PY-03-035-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "TOBATI / CORDILLERA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 15.456956836267182, 20.17632473138029, 6.8691456145330685 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-035-M-2021-10-10", "PY-03-035-M-2015-11-15", "PY-03-035-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 19.93006958686149, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 42.27152158186641, 57.72847841813359, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 38.93837817981449, 59.11470291119478, 0, 0, 1.2214161079988979, 0.7255028009918266, 0 ], [ 40.34913426057337, 47.21827987510645, 0, 0, 9.622480840193017, 2.8101050241271643, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 3.333143402051917, "volatility_previous": 11.896423036088336, "volatility_mean": 7.614783219070127 }, { "id": "PY-03-035-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "TOBATI / CORDILLERA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 5.2291749701076125, 9.843189117702627, 1.8286537077033838 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-035-C-2021-10-10", "PY-03-035-C-2015-11-15", "PY-03-035-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 68.63336455927154, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 41.36309286568354, 46.592267835791155, 0, 0, 2.574730968513352, 0, 9.469908330011958 ], [ 38.55091630455318, 48.39410542225581, 0, 0, 7.377668618930663, 1.889287738522577, 3.788021915737767 ], [ 42.491000719942406, 40.66234701223902, 0, 0, 10.439164866810655, 2.548596112311015, 3.8588912886969045 ] ], "volatility_latest": 8.494062975404546, "volatility_previous": 7.731758410016792, "volatility_mean": 8.112910692710669 }, { "id": "PY-03-037-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "VALENZUELA / CORDILLERA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 6.062624916722185, 4.082199389058595, 2.579092159559835 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-037-M-2021-10-10", "PY-03-037-M-2015-11-15", "PY-03-037-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 74.39928008646564, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 46.96868754163891, 53.03131245836109, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 47.9589003054707, 52.0410996945293, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 46.8019257221458, 49.38101788170564, 0, 0, 3.8170563961485557, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 0.9902127638317921, "volatility_previous": 3.817056396148557, "volatility_mean": 2.4036345799901744 }, { "id": "PY-03-037-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "VALENZUELA / CORDILLERA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 2.413640389725421, 1.9642857142857142, 1.368421052631579 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-03-037-C-2021-10-10", "PY-03-037-C-2015-11-15", "PY-03-037-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 89.12843973307938, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 50.4207263064659, 48.00708591674048, 0, 0, 0, 1.5721877767936228, 0 ], [ 39.375, 41.339285714285715, 0, 0, 10.744047619047619, 8.541666666666666, 0 ], [ 46.31578947368421, 47.68421052631579, 0, 0, 6.0, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 17.713526508920665, "volatility_previous": 13.285714285714285, "volatility_mean": 15.499620397317475 }, { "id": "PY-04-001-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "BORJA / GUAIRA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 19.78381096028155, 58.93954089880375, 15.253740099735992 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-001-M-2021-10-10", "PY-04-001-M-2015-11-15", "PY-04-001-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 56.78733031674208, 6.209150326797386, 0, 0, 0, 0, 37.00351935646054 ], [ 79.46977044940188, 0, 0, 0, 0, 20.530229550598126, 0 ], [ 57.230859489586386, 0.792021120563215, 0, 0, 41.977119389850394, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 43.21266968325792, "volatility_previous": 42.769140510413614, "volatility_mean": 42.99090509683577 }, { "id": "PY-04-001-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "BORJA / GUAIRA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 43.34334334334334, 53.582040277319244, 21.021671826625386 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-001-C-2021-10-10", "PY-04-001-C-2015-11-15", "PY-04-001-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 66.71671671671672, 6.531531531531532, 0, 0, 0, 0, 26.75175175175175 ], [ 76.79102013865962, 23.208979861340378, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 49.72136222910217, 6.408668730650155, 0, 0, 28.69969040247678, 0, 15.170278637770897 ] ], "volatility_latest": 26.751751751751748, "volatility_previous": 43.869969040247675, "volatility_mean": 35.31086039599971 }, { "id": "PY-04-003-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CAP. MAURICIO JOSE TROCHE / GUAIRA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 8.995265649658075, 3.1134686346863467, 1.0101010101010102 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-003-M-2021-10-10", "PY-04-003-M-2015-11-15", "PY-04-003-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 67.83894959394576, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 51.5167455725057, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0.5611081886726285, 47.922146238821675 ], [ 45.82564575645756, 0, 0, 0, 0, 5.235239852398524, 48.93911439114391 ], [ 43.03030303030303, 0, 0, 0, 3.347763347763348, 0, 53.62193362193362 ] ], "volatility_latest": 5.691099816048133, "volatility_previous": 8.030582578553057, "volatility_mean": 6.860841197300595 }, { "id": "PY-04-003-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CAP. MAURICIO JOSE TROCHE / GUAIRA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 39.62396766824811, 21.24817872753764, 14.034573688836801 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-003-C-2021-10-10", "PY-04-003-C-2015-11-15", "PY-04-003-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 55.94798805130908, 16.324020383060972, 5.218766473379019, 1.45844315586013, 0, 8.469513266561236, 12.581268669829555 ], [ 40.62651772705197, 17.2656629431763, 9.592034968431276, 0, 4.249635745507528, 8.8878096163186, 19.378338999514327 ], [ 46.05918546733079, 0, 0, 0, 5.127453852915324, 0, 48.813360679753885 ] ], "volatility_latest": 16.779913480117244, "volatility_previous": 35.74550752792618, "volatility_mean": 26.26271050402171 }, { "id": "PY-04-005-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CORONEL MARTINEZ / GUAIRA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 2.5813692480359145, 17.23153763824474, 7.104622871046229 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-005-M-2021-10-10", "PY-04-005-M-2015-11-15", "PY-04-005-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 62.85627436300203, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 46.77328843995511, 3.872053872053872, 0, 0, 0, 0, 49.35465768799102 ], [ 46.806992508027115, 29.575454869782376, 0, 0, 0.03567606136282554, 0, 23.581876560827684 ], [ 51.338199513381994, 44.23357664233577, 0, 0, 3.5036496350364965, 0, 0.9245742092457421 ] ], "volatility_latest": 25.772781127163338, "volatility_previous": 22.657302351581944, "volatility_mean": 24.21504173937264 }, { "id": "PY-04-005-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CORONEL MARTINEZ / GUAIRA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 35.285874439461885, 4.656319290465632, 9.095354523227384 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-005-C-2021-10-10", "PY-04-005-C-2015-11-15", "PY-04-005-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 63.98542600896861, 5.885650224215246, 0, 0, 0, 0, 30.128923766816143 ], [ 38.5070214338507, 33.85070214338507, 0, 0, 0.8499630450849963, 0, 26.792313377679232 ], [ 51.19804400977995, 42.10268948655257, 0, 0, 4.205378973105135, 0, 2.4938875305623474 ] ], "volatility_latest": 28.815014964254818, "volatility_previous": 24.298425847116885, "volatility_mean": 26.55672040568585 }, { "id": "PY-04-007-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "DR. BOTRELL / GUAIRA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 7.783251231527093, 8.457142857142857, 36.57142857142857 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-007-M-2021-10-10", "PY-04-007-M-2015-11-15", "PY-04-007-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 45.67881773399015, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 46.108374384236456, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 53.891625615763544 ], [ 44.22857142857143, 0, 0, 0, 0, 20.0, 35.77142857142857 ], [ 63.0, 26.428571428571427, 0, 0, 10.571428571428571, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 20.0, "volatility_previous": 55.77142857142857, "volatility_mean": 37.885714285714286 }, { "id": "PY-04-007-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "DR. BOTRELL / GUAIRA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 24.45759368836292, 25.969447708578144, 19.696969696969695 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-007-C-2021-10-10", "PY-04-007-C-2015-11-15", "PY-04-007-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 52.366863905325445, 19.723865877712033, 0, 0, 0, 0, 27.909270216962526 ], [ 43.24324324324324, 13.6310223266745, 0, 0, 6.698002350176263, 17.2737955346651, 19.153936545240892 ], [ 40.0, 20.303030303030305, 0, 0, 17.272727272727273, 0, 22.424242424242422 ] ], "volatility_latest": 23.971797884841365, "volatility_previous": 20.517038777908343, "volatility_mean": 22.244418331374852 }, { "id": "PY-04-009-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "FELIX PEREZ CARDOZO / GUAIRA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 35.29076396807297, 63.621984974298144, 19.161147902869757 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-009-M-2021-10-10", "PY-04-009-M-2015-11-15", "PY-04-009-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 67.64538198403649, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 32.35461801596351 ], [ 81.81099248714906, 18.189007512850928, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 46.49006622516556, 14.34878587196468, 0, 0, 11.832229580573951, 0, 27.328918322295806 ] ], "volatility_latest": 32.35461801596351, "volatility_previous": 39.16114790286976, "volatility_mean": 35.757882959416634 }, { "id": "PY-04-009-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "FELIX PEREZ CARDOZO / GUAIRA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 54.49358059914408, 57.63779527559055, 21.017402945113787 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-009-C-2021-10-10", "PY-04-009-C-2015-11-15", "PY-04-009-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 74.12268188302426, 6.248216833095578, 0, 0, 0, 0, 19.62910128388017 ], [ 78.81889763779527, 21.181102362204726, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 46.22936189201249, 11.646586345381525, 0, 0, 16.912092815707272, 0, 25.211958946898704 ] ], "volatility_latest": 19.629101283880168, "volatility_previous": 42.12405176260598, "volatility_mean": 30.876576523243074 }, { "id": "PY-04-011-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "GRAL. E. A. GARAY / GUAIRA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 74.19855222337125, 10.938798116865135, 26.95978186775733 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-011-M-2021-10-10", "PY-04-011-M-2015-11-15", "PY-04-011-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 87.09927611168563, 12.900723888314374, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 55.469399058432565, 44.530600941567435, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 61.24744376278119, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 38.75255623721881 ] ], "volatility_latest": 31.62987705325306, "volatility_previous": 44.530600941567435, "volatility_mean": 38.08023899741025 }, { "id": "PY-04-011-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "GRAL. E. A. GARAY / GUAIRA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 80.60885136863648, 7.8425655976676385, 24.464285714285715 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-011-C-2021-10-10", "PY-04-011-C-2015-11-15", "PY-04-011-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 90.30442568431825, 9.69557431568176, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 49.85422740524781, 42.011661807580175, 0, 0, 8.13411078717201, 0, 0 ], [ 58.25, 0, 3.642857142857143, 0, 0, 0, 38.107142857142854 ] ], "volatility_latest": 40.45019827907043, "volatility_previous": 50.14577259475219, "volatility_mean": 45.297985436911304 }, { "id": "PY-04-013-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "INDEPENDENCIA / GUAIRA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 29.88225310278986, 16.230445246690735, 18.01640566741238 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-013-M-2021-10-10", "PY-04-013-M-2015-11-15", "PY-04-013-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 60.83589689190622, 0, 7.658852232947916, 0, 0, 0.5516070860294897, 30.953643789116366 ], [ 51.75992779783393, 35.529482551143204, 0, 0, 0.6167268351383874, 11.777978339350181, 0.315884476534296 ], [ 52.468307233407906, 34.45190156599553, 0, 0, 9.82848620432513, 0, 3.2513049962714393 ] ], "volatility_latest": 47.372580639602276, "volatility_previous": 12.85555932449786, "volatility_mean": 30.11406998205007 }, { "id": "PY-04-013-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "INDEPENDENCIA / GUAIRA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 44.17210183042289, 23.526724531749657, 17.61904761904762 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-013-C-2021-10-10", "PY-04-013-C-2015-11-15", "PY-04-013-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 64.82221754681254, 20.65011571638965, 6.364401430675363, 0, 0, 8.16326530612245, 0 ], [ 45.82000913659205, 22.293284604842395, 1.2486675803258718, 0, 6.639256890513172, 14.40536013400335, 9.59342165372316 ], [ 46.804915514592935, 29.185867895545314, 0, 0, 11.551459293394776, 0, 12.457757296466974 ] ], "volatility_latest": 24.11794226056998, "volatility_previous": 15.654027714329223, "volatility_mean": 19.8859849874496 }, { "id": "PY-04-015-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ITAPE / GUAIRA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 7.6286527023532456, 26.9692532942899, 1.0642652476463366 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-015-M-2021-10-10", "PY-04-015-M-2015-11-15", "PY-04-015-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 36.12802932768224, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 46.185673648823375, 53.814326351176625, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 36.51537335285505, 63.48462664714495, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 47.72820302906263, 48.792468276708966, 0, 0, 2.9471960704052393, 0, 0.5321326238231683 ] ], "volatility_latest": 9.670300295968325, "volatility_previous": 14.692158370435983, "volatility_mean": 12.181229333202154 }, { "id": "PY-04-015-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ITAPE / GUAIRA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 12.396694214876034, 5.184259837601499, 5.627887442251155 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-015-C-2021-10-10", "PY-04-015-C-2015-11-15", "PY-04-015-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 52.219583877844066, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 39.514462809917354, 51.91115702479339, 0, 8.574380165289256, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 37.16427232979388, 42.348532167395376, 19.581511555277952, 0, 0.905683947532792, 0, 0 ], [ 47.29105417891642, 41.66316673666527, 0, 0, 6.005879882402352, 0, 5.03989920201596 ] ], "volatility_latest": 20.487195502810742, "volatility_previous": 20.266876986008057, "volatility_mean": 20.3770362444094 }, { "id": "PY-04-017-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ITURBE / GUAIRA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 18.162393162393162, 22.623828647925034, 6.471238938053097 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-017-M-2021-10-10", "PY-04-017-M-2015-11-15", "PY-04-017-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 8.341458071906427, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 59.08119658119658, 40.91880341880342, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 38.68808567603748, 61.31191432396252, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 41.62057522123894, 48.091814159292035, 0, 0, 0.497787610619469, 0, 9.789823008849558 ] ], "volatility_latest": 20.393110905159098, "volatility_previous": 13.220100164670484, "volatility_mean": 16.80660553491479 }, { "id": "PY-04-017-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ITURBE / GUAIRA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 23.781136895890995, 0.9004739336492891, 0.961266610121572 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-017-C-2021-10-10", "PY-04-017-C-2015-11-15", "PY-04-017-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 26.825245106792295, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 60.698318075367254, 36.91718117947626, 0, 0, 0, 2.384500745156483, 0 ], [ 39.40758293838863, 40.308056872037916, 0, 0, 6.2559241706161135, 8.127962085308058, 5.900473933649289 ], [ 36.01922533220243, 35.05795872208086, 0, 0, 10.856658184902459, 0, 18.06615776081425 ] ], "volatility_latest": 21.29073513697863, "volatility_previous": 16.766417841451307, "volatility_mean": 19.02857648921497 }, { "id": "PY-04-019-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "JOSE A. FASSARDI / GUAIRA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 4.548366431774504, 11.399161265726267, 12.881201638598089 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-019-M-2021-10-10", "PY-04-019-M-2015-11-15", "PY-04-019-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 62.815557986788036, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 45.163356822549645, 49.71172325432415, 0, 0, 0, 4.932735426008969, 0.19218449711723254 ], [ 43.995425085779644, 55.39458635150591, 0, 0, 0, 0.2287457110179184, 0.3812428516965307 ], [ 40.96495220755576, 53.84615384615385, 0, 0, 2.048247610377788, 0, 3.1406463359126082 ] ], "volatility_latest": 5.871921451761054, "volatility_previous": 4.807651094593863, "volatility_mean": 5.339786273177459 }, { "id": "PY-04-019-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "JOSE A. FASSARDI / GUAIRA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 7.84, 9.115805946791863, 8.398707891093679 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-019-C-2021-10-10", "PY-04-019-C-2015-11-15", "PY-04-019-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 58.606937134265365, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 47.36, 39.52, 0.512, 0, 0, 4.8, 7.808 ], [ 29.773082942097027, 38.888888888888886, 3.677621283255086, 0, 5.633802816901408, 13.65414710485133, 8.37245696400626 ], [ 33.54868481772035, 41.94739270881403, 8.53714813105676, 0, 9.5523765574527, 0, 6.414397784956161 ] ], "volatility_latest": 18.218028169014087, "volatility_previous": 15.61220628390143, "volatility_mean": 16.91511722645776 }, { "id": "PY-04-021-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "MBOCAYATY DEL GUAIRA / GUAIRA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 52.3615011488384, 62.913907284768214, 5.381325730577334 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-021-M-2021-10-10", "PY-04-021-M-2015-11-15", "PY-04-021-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 75.23615011488384, 22.87464896604544, 0, 0, 0, 1.8892009190707173, 0 ], [ 77.62286510979435, 0, 0, 0, 1.6382014639247124, 14.708957825026141, 6.029975601254793 ], [ 49.71489665003564, 44.3335709194583, 0, 0, 4.632929436920884, 0, 1.3186029935851746 ] ], "volatility_latest": 22.874648966045438, "volatility_previous": 47.32829889245447, "volatility_mean": 35.101473929249956 }, { "id": "PY-04-021-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "MBOCAYATY DEL GUAIRA / GUAIRA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 66.44836272040303, 53.189264552108746, 13.726910539659544 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-021-C-2021-10-10", "PY-04-021-C-2015-11-15", "PY-04-021-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 81.68765743073048, 15.239294710327457, 1.3350125944584383, 0.7304785894206549, 0, 1.0075566750629723, 0 ], [ 66.92227256883932, 13.733008016730569, 0, 0, 2.8929940745904497, 11.188567445102823, 5.2631578947368425 ], [ 48.85910901847157, 35.13219847881202, 0, 1.0865628395508873, 6.736689605215502, 0, 8.185440057950018 ] ], "volatility_latest": 18.337162739367145, "volatility_previous": 29.25173099547057, "volatility_mean": 23.794446867418856 }, { "id": "PY-04-023-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "NATALICIO TALAVERA / GUAIRA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 3.6741214057507987, 11.422121896162528, 1.5410016510731976 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-023-M-2021-10-10", "PY-04-023-M-2015-11-15", "PY-04-023-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 71.0739521129672, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 48.1629392971246, 51.8370607028754, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 55.71106094808126, 44.28893905191874, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 50.41276829939461, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 49.58723170060539 ] ], "volatility_latest": 7.548121650956659, "volatility_previous": 49.58723170060539, "volatility_mean": 28.567676675781026 }, { "id": "PY-04-023-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "NATALICIO TALAVERA / GUAIRA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 44.72640761300555, 10.729613733905579, 22.929577464788732 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-023-C-2021-10-10", "PY-04-023-C-2015-11-15", "PY-04-023-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 72.36320380650278, 27.636796193497226, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 44.873628993800665, 34.14401525989509, 0, 0, 8.345255126371006, 0, 12.637100619933237 ], [ 48.394366197183096, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 51.6056338028169 ] ], "volatility_latest": 27.489574812702113, "volatility_previous": 42.48927038626609, "volatility_mean": 34.9894225994841 }, { "id": "PY-04-025-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ÑUMI / GUAIRA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 9.848204368752313, 8.246013667425968, 13.08516638465877 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-025-M-2021-10-10", "PY-04-025-M-2015-11-15", "PY-04-025-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 51.54378320027473, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 37.1714179933358, 47.019622362088114, 0, 0, 0, 0, 15.808959644576083 ], [ 45.876993166287015, 54.123006833712985, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 42.752397067117876, 55.83756345177665, 0, 0, 1.410039481105471, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 15.808959644576085, "volatility_previous": 3.124596099169139, "volatility_mean": 9.466777871872612 }, { "id": "PY-04-025-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ÑUMI / GUAIRA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 4.83216525267429, 11.848778238819733, 12.507204610951009 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-025-C-2021-10-10", "PY-04-025-C-2015-11-15", "PY-04-025-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 61.47673457827203, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 38.73109553670233, 43.56326078937661, 0, 0, 0, 0, 17.70564367392106 ], [ 44.07561088059013, 55.92438911940987, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 41.61383285302594, 54.12103746397695, 0, 0, 4.265129682997118, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 17.70564367392106, "volatility_previous": 4.265129682997116, "volatility_mean": 10.985386678459088 }, { "id": "PY-04-027-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "PASO YOBAI / GUAIRA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 27.32523401712806, 3.640040444893832, 10.143388210302708 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-027-M-2021-10-10", "PY-04-027-M-2015-11-15", "PY-04-027-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 7.492543176123723, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 63.03525194184425, 35.71001792471619, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1.254730133439554 ], [ 51.820020222446914, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 48.179979777553086 ], [ 42.82173836077182, 32.67835015046911, 0, 0, 2.584528235085856, 0, 21.915383253673216 ] ], "volatility_latest": 46.925249644113535, "volatility_previous": 35.26287838555496, "volatility_mean": 41.094064014834245 }, { "id": "PY-04-027-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "PASO YOBAI / GUAIRA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 32.684901747802904, 26.611456176673567, 15.8069270449521 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-027-C-2021-10-10", "PY-04-027-C-2015-11-15", "PY-04-027-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 62.07168954280636, 29.386787795003457, 6.497481978868372, 0, 0, 0.7307198578058655, 1.3133208255159474 ], [ 47.577639751552795, 20.966183574879228, 8.364389233954451, 0, 4.182194616977226, 12.422360248447205, 6.487232574189096 ], [ 39.11201179071481, 23.305084745762713, 0, 0, 2.763448784082535, 0, 34.81945467943994 ] ], "volatility_latest": 22.914654011377795, "volatility_previous": 30.67112327613433, "volatility_mean": 26.792888643756065 }, { "id": "PY-04-029-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN SALVADOR / GUAIRA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 75.7630979498861, null, 2.4725274725274726 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-029-M-2021-10-10", "PY-04-029-M-2015-11-15", "PY-04-029-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 87.88154897494306, 12.118451025056947, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 100.0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 49.45054945054945, 46.97802197802198, 0, 0, 3.5714285714285716, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 12.118451025056945, "volatility_previous": 50.54945054945055, "volatility_mean": 31.333950787253748 }, { "id": "PY-04-029-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN SALVADOR / GUAIRA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 73.79679144385027, 8.067542213883677, 7.293127629733521 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-029-C-2021-10-10", "PY-04-029-C-2015-11-15", "PY-04-029-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 86.89839572192513, 13.101604278074866, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 44.090056285178235, 52.15759849906191, 0, 0, 3.75234521575985, 0, 0 ], [ 50.77138849929874, 43.47826086956522, 0, 0, 5.750350631136045, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 42.80833943674689, "volatility_previous": 8.679337629496695, "volatility_mean": 25.743838533121792 }, { "id": "PY-04-000-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "VILLARRICA / GUAIRA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 20.239323292758407, 17.633928571428573, 11.187045015599464 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-000-M-2021-10-10", "PY-04-000-M-2015-11-15", "PY-04-000-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 7.237614756782184, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 36.82002613300323, 57.05934942576164, 0, 0, 0, 1.2860188432707518, 4.8346055979643765 ], [ 56.4650974025974, 38.83116883116883, 0, 0, 0, 4.703733766233766, 0 ], [ 52.61724359926707, 41.43019858366761, 0, 0, 4.466894468380132, 0, 1.485663348685188 ] ], "volatility_latest": 23.062786192557184, "volatility_previous": 8.551587569564099, "volatility_mean": 15.807186881060641 }, { "id": "PY-04-000-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "VILLARRICA / GUAIRA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 8.106171744396303, 10.014092680096162, 9.828715365239296 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-000-C-2021-10-10", "PY-04-000-C-2015-11-15", "PY-04-000-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 55.745988064047204, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 45.4471017706663, 37.34093002627, 5.1175326669168575, 3.312749479717512, 0, 1.0439766640510388, 7.737709392378287 ], [ 49.034236922821854, 39.02014424272569, 1.4590068805438117, 0, 2.2341042858327116, 5.036060681422532, 3.216446986653403 ], [ 43.89420654911839, 34.0654911838791, 0, 0, 7.531486146095718, 0, 14.5088161209068 ] ], "volatility_latest": 11.492537671815445, "volatility_previous": 16.589750994516407, "volatility_mean": 14.041144333165926 }, { "id": "PY-04-031-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YATAITY DEL GUAIRA / GUAIRA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 5.02092050209205, 17.228306655433865, 6.371071889797675 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-031-M-2021-10-10", "PY-04-031-M-2015-11-15", "PY-04-031-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 55.90924256567422, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 43.02015975656143, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 56.979840243438574 ], [ 57.5821398483572, 40.35383319292334, 0.8003369839932604, 0, 1.2636899747262005, 0, 0 ], [ 41.325871717606546, 23.461041756349548, 0, 0, 0.2582866982350409, 0, 34.95479982780887 ] ], "volatility_latest": 56.979840243438574, "volatility_previous": 34.95479982780887, "volatility_mean": 45.96732003562372 }, { "id": "PY-04-031-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YATAITY DEL GUAIRA / GUAIRA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 30.66162570888469, 8.656716417910447, 12.920122217372327 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-031-C-2021-10-10", "PY-04-031-C-2015-11-15", "PY-04-031-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 56.975425330812854, 9.149338374291116, 0, 0, 0, 0, 33.87523629489603 ], [ 50.87420042643923, 42.217484008528785, 1.1087420042643923, 0, 2.857142857142857, 0, 2.9424307036247335 ], [ 41.946748144914885, 25.927542557835007, 0, 0, 3.0990833697075515, 0, 29.026625927542558 ] ], "volatility_latest": 37.03403049564491, "volatility_previous": 26.326135736482517, "volatility_mean": 31.680083116063713 }, { "id": "PY-05-003-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CAAGUAZU / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 6.886643359992338, 9.273645368032629, 8.748040313549833 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-003-M-2021-10-10", "PY-05-003-M-2015-11-15", "PY-05-003-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 61.055581711199125, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 45.66591638331497, 52.55255974330731, 0, 0, 1.1110578995258849, 0, 0.670465973851827 ], [ 38.8522043115168, 48.125849679549425, 0, 0, 0, 11.863144947238945, 1.1588010616948274 ], [ 37.60358342665174, 46.35162374020157, 0, 0, 10.08286674132139, 0, 5.961926091825307 ] ], "volatility_latest": 12.351480035081945, "volatility_previous": 14.885991771451867, "volatility_mean": 13.618735903266906 }, { "id": "PY-05-003-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CAAGUAZU / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 0.20395431423361168, 0.548683160415004, 4.331915282923928 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-003-C-2021-10-10", "PY-05-003-C-2015-11-15", "PY-05-003-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 96.39915467521469, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 44.68279105480372, 44.886745369037335, 0, 0, 2.257894231692101, 2.5506286591803438, 5.621940685286496 ], [ 35.88387869114126, 36.432561851556265, 1.9187283852088322, 0, 2.4807129555732907, 8.250199521149241, 15.03391859537111 ], [ 34.938932345272406, 30.607017062348476, 3.1746031746031744, 0, 11.047070124879923, 5.255935227116783, 14.97644206577924 ] ], "volatility_latest": 17.253095881143533, "volatility_previous": 9.822231958700975, "volatility_mean": 13.537663919922254 }, { "id": "PY-05-005-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CARAYAO / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 4.973331411272884, 2.6706756278740715, 5.606180665610142 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-005-M-2021-10-10", "PY-05-005-M-2015-11-15", "PY-05-005-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 78.27090199156517, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 52.48666570563644, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 47.51333429436356 ], [ 51.25574814290768, 48.5850725150336, 0, 0, 0.1591793420587195, 0, 0 ], [ 49.04912836767036, 43.44294770206022, 0, 0, 0, 0, 7.507923930269413 ] ], "volatility_latest": 48.74425185709232, "volatility_previous": 7.5079239302694125, "volatility_mean": 28.126087893680868 }, { "id": "PY-05-005-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CARAYAO / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 18.290769011271223, 9.267122023260107, 1.0882956878850103 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-005-C-2021-10-10", "PY-05-005-C-2015-11-15", "PY-05-005-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 30.68286208735367, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 52.147239263803684, 33.85647025253246, 0, 7.476102154372949, 0, 6.520188329290912, 0 ], [ 47.738600701495294, 38.47147867823519, 0, 0, 1.2183865608270261, 7.181096547904744, 5.390437511537751 ], [ 42.15605749486653, 41.06776180698152, 0, 0, 4.394250513347022, 0, 12.38193018480493 ] ], "volatility_latest": 11.884740716681337, "volatility_previous": 12.763639754533509, "volatility_mean": 12.324190235607423 }, { "id": "PY-05-033-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SIMON BOLIVAR / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 16.952006735896717, 13.975249019015997, 10.747303543913713 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-033-M-2021-10-10", "PY-05-033-M-2015-11-15", "PY-05-033-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 22.807454491829006, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 37.94555150154364, 54.89755823744036, 0, 0, 0, 0, 7.156890261015998 ], [ 40.718382130999096, 54.693631150015094, 0, 0, 0, 4.587986718985814, 0 ], [ 40.87057010785824, 51.61787365177196, 0, 0, 0.1926040061633282, 0, 7.3189522342064715 ] ], "volatility_latest": 7.360817348441266, "volatility_previous": 7.663744217228947, "volatility_mean": 7.512280782835107 }, { "id": "PY-05-033-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SIMON BOLIVAR / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 12.814773363178512, 15.993740219092333, 10.57767369242779 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-033-C-2021-10-10", "PY-05-033-C-2015-11-15", "PY-05-033-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 32.27623273561206, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 40.34695019585898, 53.16172355903749, 0, 0, 0, 0, 6.491326245103525 ], [ 34.491392801251955, 50.485133020344286, 0, 0, 0, 4.444444444444445, 10.579029733959311 ], [ 38.758782201405154, 49.33645589383294, 0, 0, 2.537080405932865, 0, 9.36768149882904 ] ], "volatility_latest": 8.53214793330023, "volatility_previous": 6.804469806086063, "volatility_mean": 7.6683088696931465 }, { "id": "PY-05-000-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CORONEL OVIEDO / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 6.15967979776701, 5.433328146880348, 7.4481119815839305 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-000-M-2021-10-10", "PY-05-000-M-2015-11-15", "PY-05-000-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 69.64691239558648, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 51.038550663577, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 48.961449336423 ], [ 51.541932472382136, 46.10860432550179, 0, 0, 0, 2.349463202116073, 0 ], [ 51.435042512902385, 43.98693053131846, 0, 2.8329558534140276, 0.46782757212341736, 0, 1.277243530241711 ] ], "volatility_latest": 48.961449336423, "volatility_previous": 4.578026955779155, "volatility_mean": 26.769738146101076 }, { "id": "PY-05-000-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CORONEL OVIEDO / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 21.523869743914005, 13.018693672176045, 0.16850146034598967 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-000-C-2021-10-10", "PY-05-000-C-2015-11-15", "PY-05-000-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 15.816099529820937, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 55.03425018442407, 33.51038044051006, 0, 0, 0, 0, 11.455369375065864 ], [ 49.778669469125184, 36.75997579694914, 4.08904175026273, 0, 2.751504729148753, 6.620808254514188, 0 ], [ 44.41698494720288, 44.248483486856884, 0, 2.793379764846851, 5.20856736313937, 0, 3.332584437954018 ] ], "volatility_latest": 16.71095009036475, "volatility_previous": 16.071534526699224, "volatility_mean": 16.391242308531986 }, { "id": "PY-05-007-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "DR. CECILIO BAEZ / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 67.40794750273423, 42.058449809402795, 16.499206768905342 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-007-M-2021-10-10", "PY-05-007-M-2015-11-15", "PY-05-007-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 83.70397375136712, 16.296026248632884, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 71.0292249047014, 28.970775095298603, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 56.58381808566896, 40.08461131676362, 0, 0, 3.3315705975674246, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 12.67474884666572, "volatility_previous": 14.445406819032439, "volatility_mean": 13.560077832849078 }, { "id": "PY-05-007-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "DR. CECILIO BAEZ / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 26.280549045865417, 21.721677074041036, 7.303974221267454 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-007-C-2021-10-10", "PY-05-007-C-2015-11-15", "PY-05-007-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 57.75025108804821, 10.780046869768999, 0, 31.469702042182792, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 24.487065120428188, 26.895628902765388, 0, 0, 0, 0, 48.61730597680642 ], [ 31.84747583243824, 18.904403866809883, 0, 39.151450053705695, 3.4908700322234156, 0, 6.6058002148227715 ] ], "volatility_latest": 64.7328880098028, "volatility_previous": 50.00273079793916, "volatility_mean": 57.36780940387098 }, { "id": "PY-05-009-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "DR.J. E. ESTIGARRIBIA / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 7.702590871474951, 6.47350561211172, 1.5727042516326804 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-009-M-2021-10-10", "PY-05-009-M-2015-11-15", "PY-05-009-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 66.39561684159123, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 47.82608695652174, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 52.17391304347826 ], [ 51.20508135386757, 44.731575741755854, 0, 0, 0, 3.1758461672322285, 0.8874967371443487 ], [ 47.5942956150873, 49.166999866719976, 0, 0, 3.2387045181927228, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 51.28641630633391, "volatility_previous": 7.674128643156847, "volatility_mean": 29.48027247474538 }, { "id": "PY-05-009-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "DR.J. E. ESTIGARRIBIA / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 25.102040816326532, 10.860582105641393, 15.881374722838137 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-009-C-2021-10-10", "PY-05-009-C-2015-11-15", "PY-05-009-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0.4623170311392477, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 52.09183673469388, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 47.90816326530612 ], [ 45.23895077254761, 34.37836866690622, 0, 0, 4.042400287459576, 7.572763205174272, 8.767517067912324 ], [ 45.288248337028826, 29.406873614190687, 0, 9.78381374722838, 3.977272727272727, 0, 11.543791574279378 ] ], "volatility_latest": 45.99353215954007, "volatility_previous": 12.609385818076651, "volatility_mean": 29.30145898880836 }, { "id": "PY-05-011-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "DR. JUAN M. FRUTOS / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 20.56744853016491, 2.561600390339107, 7.471626733921816 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-011-M-2021-10-10", "PY-05-011-M-2015-11-15", "PY-05-011-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 30.719440457035695, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 55.0547987298986, 34.48735019973369, 0, 1.311072416265492, 9.146778654102222, 0, 0 ], [ 51.280800195169554, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 48.719199804830446 ], [ 50.693568726355615, 43.2219419924338, 1.4186633039092056, 0, 1.008827238335435, 3.0264817150063053, 0.6305170239596469 ] ], "volatility_latest": 48.719199804830446, "volatility_previous": 48.67591424968474, "volatility_mean": 48.69755702725759 }, { "id": "PY-05-011-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "DR. JUAN M. FRUTOS / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 27.813488419549024, 3.2388137356919877, 9.303828137619124 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-011-C-2021-10-10", "PY-05-011-C-2015-11-15", "PY-05-011-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 7.0494000690053955, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 57.10641771247832, 29.292929292929294, 2.560963167023773, 1.540659116416692, 6.529945923885318, 0.3060912151821243, 2.6629935720844813 ], [ 39.9843912591051, 0, 1.45681581685744, 0, 8.207596253902185, 0, 50.35119667013527 ], [ 46.29300597641738, 36.989177838798255, 2.1805847197544823, 0, 7.042481020836698, 5.604910353739299, 1.8898400904538846 ] ], "volatility_latest": 49.36585342806766, "volatility_previous": 49.62647181274688, "volatility_mean": 49.49616262040727 }, { "id": "PY-05-013-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "JOSE DOMINGO OCAMPOS / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 39.15294117647059, 43.01208552835451, 5.72733661278988 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-013-M-2021-10-10", "PY-05-013-M-2015-11-15", "PY-05-013-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 61.15294117647059, 16.847058823529412, 0, 0, 0, 22.0, 0 ], [ 68.26774093585374, 25.255655407499226, 0, 0, 0, 6.476603656647041, 0 ], [ 49.26212227687983, 43.53478566408995, 1.7919887561489811, 0, 1.6865776528460998, 0, 3.7245256500351376 ] ], "volatility_latest": 15.52339634335296, "volatility_previous": 25.482222315620948, "volatility_mean": 20.502809329486954 }, { "id": "PY-05-013-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "JOSE DOMINGO OCAMPOS / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 48.875878220140514, 45.09803921568628, 10.078909612625537 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-013-C-2021-10-10", "PY-05-013-C-2015-11-15", "PY-05-013-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 69.71896955503513, 20.843091334894613, 0, 0, 0, 8.501170960187354, 0.936768149882904 ], [ 60.78431372549019, 15.686274509803921, 0, 0, 0, 9.128897460623593, 14.40051430408229 ], [ 48.385939741750356, 38.30703012912482, 1.4705882352941178, 0, 1.9010043041606888, 0, 9.935437589670014 ] ], "volatility_latest": 14.091472654635627, "volatility_previous": 25.992348158775705, "volatility_mean": 20.041910406705668 }, { "id": "PY-05-015-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LA PASTORA / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 49.89491382934006, 26.987560843699296, 51.632245169886744 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-015-M-2021-10-10", "PY-05-015-M-2015-11-15", "PY-05-015-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 25.05254308532997, 74.94745691467003, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 36.50621957815035, 63.49378042184965, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 23.251165889407062, 74.8834110592938, 0, 0, 1.8654230512991339, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 11.45367649282038, "volatility_previous": 13.25505368874329, "volatility_mean": 12.354365090781835 }, { "id": "PY-05-015-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LA PASTORA / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 40.01603849238172, 35.4625550660793, 42.866801893171065 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-015-C-2021-10-10", "PY-05-015-C-2015-11-15", "PY-05-015-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 29.99198075380914, 70.00801924619086, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 32.268722466960355, 67.73127753303964, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 26.16632860040568, 69.03313049357673, 0, 0, 4.80054090601758, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 2.276741713151212, "volatility_previous": 6.102393866554673, "volatility_mean": 4.189567789852942 }, { "id": "PY-05-017-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "FRANCISCO SOLANO LOPEZ / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 28.974739970282318, 28.497109826589597, 12.795389048991355 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-017-M-2021-10-10", "PY-05-017-M-2015-11-15", "PY-05-017-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 64.48736998514116, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 35.51263001485884 ], [ 61.50289017341041, 5.491329479768786, 0, 0, 0, 33.005780346820806, 0 ], [ 40.0, 27.204610951008647, 0, 0, 6.051873198847262, 0, 26.743515850144092 ] ], "volatility_latest": 38.49710982658959, "volatility_previous": 54.50867052023121, "volatility_mean": 46.50289017341041 }, { "id": "PY-05-017-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "FRANCISCO SOLANO LOPEZ / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 62.31356857038923, 31.77177177177177, 13.762551683402245 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-017-C-2021-10-10", "PY-05-017-C-2015-11-15", "PY-05-017-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 77.99199708985086, 0, 4.692615496544198, 1.6369588941433248, 0, 0, 15.678428519461622 ], [ 58.25825825825826, 15.255255255255255, 0, 0, 0, 26.486486486486488, 0 ], [ 40.9923213230951, 25.339633786178382, 0, 0, 6.438275251033668, 0, 27.229769639692854 ] ], "volatility_latest": 41.74174174174174, "volatility_previous": 43.75242342164965, "volatility_mean": 42.74708258169569 }, { "id": "PY-05-019-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "NUEVA LONDRES / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 5.3097345132743365, 1.002004008016032, 3.1044214487300095 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-019-M-2021-10-10", "PY-05-019-M-2015-11-15", "PY-05-019-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 81.01557972378795, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 46.902654867256636, 52.21238938053097, 0, 0.8849557522123894, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 48.016032064128254, 47.014028056112224, 0, 0, 0.4408817635270541, 4.529058116232465, 0 ], [ 48.447789275634996, 0, 0, 0, 51.552210724365004, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 6.083317076631137, "volatility_previous": 51.543086172344694, "volatility_mean": 28.813201624487917 }, { "id": "PY-05-019-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "NUEVA LONDRES / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 15.311004784688995, 0.9349593495934959, 9.104627766599597 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-019-C-2021-10-10", "PY-05-019-C-2015-11-15", "PY-05-019-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 48.11223273824298, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 54.066985645933016, 38.75598086124402, 0, 7.177033492822966, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 42.5609756097561, 43.49593495934959, 0, 0, 1.2195121951219512, 8.902439024390244, 3.821138211382114 ], [ 44.36619718309859, 35.26156941649899, 0, 9.859154929577464, 8.501006036217303, 0, 2.0120724346076457 ] ], "volatility_latest": 18.68304352899988, "volatility_previous": 18.945870344015308, "volatility_mean": 18.814456936507597 }, { "id": "PY-05-021-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "R.I. 3 CORRALES / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 4.170528266913809, 0.39239360096589193, 3.9575683394532843 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-021-M-2021-10-10", "PY-05-021-M-2015-11-15", "PY-05-021-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 84.9210406280831, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 52.0852641334569, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 47.9147358665431 ], [ 49.803803199517056, 50.196196800482944, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 46.43002855977152, 50.3875968992248, 0, 0, 3.182374541003672, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 50.196196800482944, "volatility_previous": 3.373774639745532, "volatility_mean": 26.78498572011424 }, { "id": "PY-05-021-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "R.I. 3 CORRALES / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 0.27906976744186046, 5.180248409572857, 5.274000824062629 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-021-C-2021-10-10", "PY-05-021-C-2015-11-15", "PY-05-021-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 88.75541767128382, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 48.72093023255814, 0, 0, 2.2790697674418605, 0, 0, 49.0 ], [ 47.40987579521357, 52.59012420478643, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 45.69427276473012, 50.96827358879275, 0, 0, 3.3374536464771323, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 52.59012420478643, "volatility_previous": 3.337453646477131, "volatility_mean": 27.96378892563178 }, { "id": "PY-05-023-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "RAUL ARSENIO OVIEDO / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 8.781589721869265, 9.516740887349497, 29.427886262418635 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-023-M-2021-10-10", "PY-05-023-M-2015-11-15", "PY-05-023-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 44.66617637215864, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 54.1154877876606, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 45.8845122123394 ], [ 52.68019132442685, 43.16345043707735, 0, 0, 0, 4.156358238495794, 0 ], [ 17.831449126413155, 24.665981500513876, 0, 54.09386776293251, 1.5930113052415211, 0, 1.815690304898938 ] ], "volatility_latest": 47.31980867557315, "volatility_previous": 57.502569373072966, "volatility_mean": 52.41118902432306 }, { "id": "PY-05-023-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "RAUL ARSENIO OVIEDO / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 28.00906258850184, 12.89403085177733, 22.148702768587846 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-023-C-2021-10-10", "PY-05-023-C-2015-11-15", "PY-05-023-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 59.345794392523366, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40.65420560747664 ], [ 51.76056338028169, 38.86653252850436, 0, 0, 2.414486921529175, 6.958417169684775, 0 ], [ 16.785652098206512, 24.55162806895351, 0, 46.70033083754136, 5.27598815949852, 0, 6.686400835800105 ] ], "volatility_latest": 48.23943661971831, "volatility_previous": 56.24823291131081, "volatility_mean": 52.24383476551456 }, { "id": "PY-05-025-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "REPATRIACION / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 23.206535613990297, 22.837370242214533, 3.6252165800346527 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-025-M-2021-10-10", "PY-05-025-M-2015-11-15", "PY-05-025-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 60.003403965619945, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 39.99659603438005 ], [ 55.11341791618608, 32.27604767397155, 0, 0, 0, 12.610534409842368, 0 ], [ 51.0462481673997, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 48.9537518326003 ] ], "volatility_latest": 44.88658208381391, "volatility_previous": 48.9537518326003, "volatility_mean": 46.920166958207105 }, { "id": "PY-05-025-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "REPATRIACION / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 39.6124031007752, 27.621963262887615, 14.382174206617151 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-025-C-2021-10-10", "PY-05-025-C-2015-11-15", "PY-05-025-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 66.75279931093884, 0, 0, 1.6623600344530578, 0, 0, 31.584840654608094 ], [ 53.68358680624136, 26.061623543353743, 0, 0, 5.283428797155836, 14.971360853249061, 0 ], [ 49.58811613774477, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 50.41188386225524 ] ], "volatility_latest": 46.316413193758635, "volatility_previous": 50.41188386225523, "volatility_mean": 48.364148528006936 }, { "id": "PY-05-027-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN JOAQUIN / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 5.351976856316297, 9.336791404223787, 12.5 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-027-M-2021-10-10", "PY-05-027-M-2015-11-15", "PY-05-027-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 63.688882324715436, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 50.658952105432334, 45.30697524911604, 0, 1.8964963034394084, 0, 0, 2.1375763420122147 ], [ 45.05372360133383, 54.39051500555762, 0, 0, 0, 0.5557613931085588, 0 ], [ 34.86712598425197, 47.36712598425197, 0, 0, 5.979330708661418, 0, 11.786417322834644 ] ], "volatility_latest": 9.63930114955013, "volatility_previous": 17.765748031496063, "volatility_mean": 13.702524590523097 }, { "id": "PY-05-027-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN JOAQUIN / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 7.510832932113625, 9.727916511367871, 8.402100525131283 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-027-C-2021-10-10", "PY-05-027-C-2015-11-15", "PY-05-027-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 58.67457617404168, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 49.63890226287915, 42.12806933076553, 0, 2.74434280211844, 0, 0, 5.48868560423688 ], [ 44.09243384271338, 53.82035035408125, 0, 0, 0, 2.087215803205367, 0 ], [ 34.658664666166544, 43.060765191297826, 0, 0, 8.177044261065266, 0, 14.103525881470368 ] ], "volatility_latest": 13.779496826521088, "volatility_previous": 22.28057014253563, "volatility_mean": 18.03003348452836 }, { "id": "PY-05-029-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN JOSE DE LOS ARROYOS / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 72.94612151318303, 56.164129223913854, 6.081198815124586 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-029-M-2021-10-10", "PY-05-029-M-2015-11-15", "PY-05-029-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 83.47981148898229, 10.53368997579926, 0, 0, 0, 0, 5.986498535218444 ], [ 76.06758262161159, 4.02896398069068, 0, 0, 0, 19.903453397697735, 0 ], [ 53.04059940756229, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 46.95940059243771 ] ], "volatility_latest": 19.90345339769773, "volatility_previous": 46.95940059243772, "volatility_mean": 33.431426995067724 }, { "id": "PY-05-029-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN JOSE DE LOS ARROYOS / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 71.80552162228194, 51.84701492537314, 7.349587791615506 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-029-C-2021-10-10", "PY-05-029-C-2015-11-15", "PY-05-029-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 84.66894698265331, 12.863425360371366, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2.4676276569753237 ], [ 66.7723880597015, 14.925373134328359, 0, 0, 4.925373134328358, 13.376865671641792, 0 ], [ 53.67479389580775, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 46.32520610419225 ] ], "volatility_latest": 20.36418657992714, "volatility_previous": 46.32520610419225, "volatility_mean": 33.34469634205969 }, { "id": "PY-05-031-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SANTA ROSA DEL MBUTUY / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 2.7618891975813042, 13.115782867900847, 8.228941684665227 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-031-M-2021-10-10", "PY-05-031-M-2015-11-15", "PY-05-031-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 67.92618726307221, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 48.61905540120935, 51.38094459879065, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 43.442108566049576, 56.557891433950424, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 44.57883369330454, 52.80777537796976, 0, 0, 0.367170626349892, 0, 2.24622030237581 ] ], "volatility_latest": 5.176946835159775, "volatility_previous": 3.750116055980663, "volatility_mean": 4.463531445570219 }, { "id": "PY-05-031-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SANTA ROSA DEL MBUTUY / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 7.274206672091131, 10.864, 10.140474100087797 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-031-C-2021-10-10", "PY-05-031-C-2015-11-15", "PY-05-031-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 56.81114293368271, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 46.36289666395444, 53.63710333604556, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 43.632, 54.496, 0, 0, 1.872, 0, 0 ], [ 38.82791922739245, 48.96839332748024, 0, 0, 5.553116769095698, 3.3801580333625987, 3.270412642669008 ] ], "volatility_latest": 2.7308966639544394, "volatility_previous": 10.331687445127306, "volatility_mean": 6.531292054540873 }, { "id": "PY-05-001-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "3 DE FEBRERO / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 8.88505085396277, 1.3388259526261586, 2.945043386799895 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-001-M-2021-10-10", "PY-05-001-M-2015-11-15", "PY-05-001-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 69.86408681577251, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 54.44252542698138, 45.55747457301862, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 49.330587023686924, 50.669412976313076, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 48.09361030765185, 51.038653694451746, 0.7888509071785432, 0, 0.07888509071785432, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 5.1119384032944595, "volatility_previous": 1.2369767160350704, "volatility_mean": 3.174457559664765 }, { "id": "PY-05-001-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "3 DE FEBRERO / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 0.5141877737573796, 4.201680672268908, 2.7733333333333334 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-001-C-2021-10-10", "PY-05-001-C-2015-11-15", "PY-05-001-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 90.76824900365783, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 50.25709388687869, 49.74290611312131, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 47.89915966386555, 52.10084033613445, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 47.57333333333333, 50.346666666666664, 1.2266666666666666, 0, 0.8533333333333334, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 2.357934223013146, "volatility_previous": 2.0800000000000027, "volatility_mean": 2.2189671115065743 }, { "id": "PY-05-035-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "VAQUERIA / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 2.71078706300243, 8.647761893602063, 7.1266683455049105 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-035-M-2021-10-10", "PY-05-035-M-2015-11-15", "PY-05-035-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 75.33266179783716, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 48.644606468498786, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 51.355393531501214 ], [ 27.982188891492854, 36.62995078509491, 0, 0, 8.272791188188423, 27.11506913522381, 0 ], [ 40.292117854444726, 25.71140770586754, 0, 0, 0.8310249307479224, 0, 33.165449508939815 ] ], "volatility_latest": 72.01781110850715, "volatility_previous": 45.47537847189169, "volatility_mean": 58.74659479019942 }, { "id": "PY-05-035-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "VAQUERIA / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 5.414488424197162, 1.2640114476508466, 4.189016602809707 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-035-C-2021-10-10", "PY-05-035-C-2015-11-15", "PY-05-035-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 79.76600925452739, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 47.29275578790142, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 52.70724421209858 ], [ 32.91199618411638, 34.176007631767234, 0, 0, 8.657285952778441, 24.254710231337945, 0 ], [ 37.16475095785441, 23.984674329501917, 0, 0, 5.874840357598979, 0, 32.9757343550447 ] ], "volatility_latest": 67.08800381588362, "volatility_previous": 37.228489128782726, "volatility_mean": 52.158246472333175 }, { "id": "PY-05-037-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YHU / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 30.10153294843719, 7.796532322884373, 10.467610467610468 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-037-M-2021-10-10", "PY-05-037-M-2015-11-15", "PY-05-037-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 55.66394584909417, 17.947441767867808, 0, 0, 0, 0, 26.388612383038023 ], [ 53.89826616144219, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 46.10173383855781 ], [ 41.15544115544115, 30.687830687830687, 0, 0, 1.8018018018018018, 0, 26.354926354926356 ] ], "volatility_latest": 19.71312145551979, "volatility_previous": 32.48963248963249, "volatility_mean": 26.10137697257614 }, { "id": "PY-05-037-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YHU / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 40.861282000396905, 7.475547275267815, 9.017574186113512 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-037-C-2021-10-10", "PY-05-037-C-2015-11-15", "PY-05-037-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 59.85314546537011, 18.99186346497321, 0, 0, 0, 0, 21.154991069656674 ], [ 53.73777363763391, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 46.26222636236609 ], [ 39.45548833189282, 30.437914145779313, 0, 0, 2.2760011524056467, 0, 27.830596369922212 ] ], "volatility_latest": 25.10723529270942, "volatility_previous": 32.713915298184965, "volatility_mean": 28.91057529544719 }, { "id": "PY-06-001-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ABAI / CAAZAPA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 50.81658291457286, 32.35210868949901, 9.584358764014219 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-06-001-M-2021-10-10", "PY-06-001-M-2015-11-15", "PY-06-001-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 69.40954773869346, 9.191792294807371, 0, 1.7064489112227805, 0, 0, 19.69221105527638 ], [ 64.27964902349278, 3.7928106425134445, 0, 0, 0, 31.927540333993772, 0 ], [ 30.954334153677877, 13.795460760185945, 0, 0, 0, 14.711512168444079, 40.538692917692096 ] ], "volatility_latest": 31.927540333993772, "volatility_previous": 50.5413430353646, "volatility_mean": 41.23444168467918 }, { "id": "PY-06-001-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ABAI / CAAZAPA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 48.77848491069596, 19.85207100591716, 6.0690423162583516 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-06-001-C-2021-10-10", "PY-06-001-C-2015-11-15", "PY-06-001-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 61.30158078423322, 9.084376924656128, 0.6774789570929994, 2.227468692260316, 0, 8.345308971463766, 18.363785670293574 ], [ 49.39349112426036, 6.449704142011834, 6.28698224852071, 0, 1.3757396449704142, 29.541420118343197, 6.952662721893491 ], [ 30.55400890868597, 14.114699331848552, 0, 0, 3.4103563474387526, 15.297884187082404, 36.62305122494432 ] ], "volatility_latest": 28.181354083277554, "volatility_previous": 39.37000039535589, "volatility_mean": 33.77567723931672 }, { "id": "PY-06-003-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "BUENA VISTA / CAAZAPA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 6.739130434782608, 5.005820721769499, 13.960495480415132 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-06-003-M-2021-10-10", "PY-06-003-M-2015-11-15", "PY-06-003-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 65.29362987279036, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 53.369565217391305, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 46.630434782608695 ], [ 47.49708963911525, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 52.50291036088475 ], [ 36.15667894208236, 50.11717442249749, 0, 0, 0.3682624707063944, 13.35788416471376, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 5.8724755782760525, "volatility_previous": 63.84332105791764, "volatility_mean": 34.857898318096844 }, { "id": "PY-06-003-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "BUENA VISTA / CAAZAPA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 17.483085250338295, 1.756511205330103, 12.18601493550577 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-06-003-C-2021-10-10", "PY-06-003-C-2015-11-15", "PY-06-003-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 38.82296997323708, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 48.93098782138024, 31.447902571041947, 0, 0, 0, 0, 19.621109607577807 ], [ 46.51726226529376, 0, 0, 0, 5.208964264082375, 0, 48.273773470623865 ], [ 36.082824168363885, 48.26883910386965, 0.1697216564833673, 0, 2.5118805159538358, 12.96673455532926, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 33.861628127128434, "volatility_previous": 61.40529531568228, "volatility_mean": 47.633461721405354 }, { "id": "PY-06-000-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CAAZAPA / CAAZAPA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 60.61843640606768, 44.61167971101746, 11.972459518041566 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-06-000-M-2021-10-10", "PY-06-000-M-2015-11-15", "PY-06-000-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 80.30921820303384, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 19.69078179696616 ], [ 71.6676700782661, 0, 0, 0, 0, 27.055990367248647, 1.2763395544852498 ], [ 41.32347316078032, 4.5263292107611885, 0, 0, 29.35101364273875, 21.73913043478261, 3.0600535509371416 ] ], "volatility_latest": 27.055990367248647, "volatility_previous": 35.66105684995183, "volatility_mean": 31.358523608600237 }, { "id": "PY-06-000-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CAAZAPA / CAAZAPA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 69.47495810835971, 39.291587602783046, 10.546564075351553 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-06-000-C-2021-10-10", "PY-06-000-C-2015-11-15", "PY-06-000-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 78.2070377955688, 6.479240364922733, 2.29938558927574, 0, 0, 8.732079687209087, 4.282256563023646 ], [ 55.26881720430107, 7.071473750790639, 1.9481340923466162, 0, 2.137887413029728, 15.977229601518026, 17.596457938013913 ], [ 35.53993101618467, 8.105598301936853, 1.1541522950384717, 0, 24.993366940833113, 16.662244627222076, 13.544706818784823 ] ], "volatility_latest": 23.289472088196842, "volatility_previous": 24.574619104653646, "volatility_mean": 23.932045596425244 }, { "id": "PY-06-005-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "DR. MOISES BERTONI / CAAZAPA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 67.49131944444444, 83.6604774535809, 44.384739387426116 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-06-005-M-2021-10-10", "PY-06-005-M-2015-11-15", "PY-06-005-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 82.50868055555556, 2.4739583333333335, 0, 15.01736111111111, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 91.83023872679045, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 8.169761273209549 ], [ 70.87587318645889, 2.0419129500268673, 0, 0, 0.5910800644814616, 0, 26.491133799032777 ] ], "volatility_latest": 17.491319444444446, "volatility_previous": 20.954365540331562, "volatility_mean": 19.222842492388004 }, { "id": "PY-06-005-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "DR. MOISES BERTONI / CAAZAPA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 71.37975224263135, 74.09766454352442, 46.944294213088156 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-06-005-C-2021-10-10", "PY-06-005-C-2015-11-15", "PY-06-005-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 83.25501922255447, 0, 0, 11.87526697992311, 0, 4.869713797522427, 0 ], [ 87.04883227176221, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 12.951167728237792 ], [ 68.73985938345051, 8.058409951325041, 0, 0, 1.4061654948620876, 0, 21.79556517036236 ] ], "volatility_latest": 16.744980777445534, "volatility_previous": 18.308972888311697, "volatility_mean": 17.526976832878617 }, { "id": "PY-06-007-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "FULGENCIO YEGROS / CAAZAPA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 61.388429752066116, 59.66630395357272, 33.96084337349398 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-06-007-M-2021-10-10", "PY-06-007-M-2015-11-15", "PY-06-007-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 80.69421487603306, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 19.305785123966942 ], [ 79.83315197678637, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 20.16684802321364 ], [ 66.980421686747, 33.019578313253014, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 0.8610628992466935, "volatility_previous": 33.019578313253014, "volatility_mean": 16.940320606249855 }, { "id": "PY-06-007-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "FULGENCIO YEGROS / CAAZAPA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 66.09176700292873, 52.876106194690266, 41.06374657802112 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-06-007-C-2021-10-10", "PY-06-007-C-2015-11-15", "PY-06-007-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 83.04588350146437, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 16.954116498535633 ], [ 76.43805309734513, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 23.561946902654867 ], [ 62.26046147829488, 0, 0, 0, 16.542823621431364, 0, 21.196714900273758 ] ], "volatility_latest": 6.6078304041192375, "volatility_previous": 16.542823621431364, "volatility_mean": 11.5753270127753 }, { "id": "PY-06-009-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "GRAL. MORINIGO / CAAZAPA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 73.38924895158216, 16.974674880219027, 10.111876075731498 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-06-009-M-2021-10-10", "PY-06-009-M-2015-11-15", "PY-06-009-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 86.23713305375524, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 13.762866946244758 ], [ 58.48733744010951, 41.51266255989049, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 37.822719449225474, 47.93459552495697, 0, 0, 4.3029259896729775, 9.59552495697074, 0.3442340791738382 ] ], "volatility_latest": 41.51266255989049, "volatility_previous": 20.66461799088404, "volatility_mean": 31.088640275387263 }, { "id": "PY-06-009-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "GRAL. MORINIGO / CAAZAPA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 71.86440677966101, 16.365606936416185, 0.34995625546806647 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-06-009-C-2021-10-10", "PY-06-009-C-2015-11-15", "PY-06-009-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 84.21845574387947, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1.3182674199623352, 14.46327683615819 ], [ 52.49277456647399, 36.127167630057805, 0, 0, 0, 10.440751445086706, 0.9393063583815029 ], [ 38.05774278215223, 38.4076990376203, 0, 0, 3.8057742782152233, 9.623797025371829, 10.10498687664042 ] ], "volatility_latest": 45.24965165518218, "volatility_previous": 15.251986204036633, "volatility_mean": 30.250818929609405 }, { "id": "PY-06-011-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "MACIEL / CAAZAPA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 78.49301397205589, null, 17.89153573238723 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-06-011-M-2021-10-10", "PY-06-011-M-2015-11-15", "PY-06-011-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 85.72854291417165, 7.235528942115768, 0, 0, 0, 0, 7.0359281437125745 ], [ 100.0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 58.641662442980234, 0.25342118601115055, 0, 0, 40.75012671059301, 0, 0.3547896604156107 ] ], "volatility_latest": 14.271457085828343, "volatility_previous": 41.358337557019766, "volatility_mean": 27.814897321424056 }, { "id": "PY-06-011-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "MACIEL / CAAZAPA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 75.80865603644646, 41.94831013916501, 21.151885830784913 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-06-011-C-2021-10-10", "PY-06-011-C-2015-11-15", "PY-06-011-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 86.51480637813212, 10.70615034168565, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2.7790432801822322 ], [ 58.51557322730285, 12.19350563286945, 4.174950298210735, 0, 8.548707753479125, 16.56726308813784, 0 ], [ 58.053007135575946, 2.3955147808358817, 0, 0, 36.901121304791026, 0, 2.650356778797146 ] ], "volatility_latest": 30.7782764310115, "volatility_previous": 31.002770330109048, "volatility_mean": 30.890523380560275 }, { "id": "PY-06-013-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN JUAN NEPOMUCENO / CAAZAPA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 22.381615598885794, 10.920959774170784, 20.37462235649547 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-06-013-M-2021-10-10", "PY-06-013-M-2015-11-15", "PY-06-013-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 6.286402363838695, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 59.73537604456825, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40.26462395543176 ], [ 41.79604798870854, 0, 0, 0, 0, 4.6665490472829925, 53.537402964008464 ], [ 47.28700906344411, 0, 0, 0, 11.311178247734139, 0, 41.40181268882175 ] ], "volatility_latest": 17.939328055859704, "volatility_previous": 16.80213932246971, "volatility_mean": 17.37073368916471 }, { "id": "PY-06-013-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN JUAN NEPOMUCENO / CAAZAPA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 30.115614988159912, 9.132543103448276, 25.518182946506144 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-06-013-C-2021-10-10", "PY-06-013-C-2015-11-15", "PY-06-013-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 59.451177044156566, 0, 0, 1.6994010307842318, 0, 0.6686167989970748, 38.180805126062126 ], [ 39.322916666666664, 0, 0, 0, 0, 7.121048850574713, 53.55603448275862 ], [ 45.60009929254065, 11.046295147077076, 0, 0, 11.095941417401018, 0, 32.257664142981255 ] ], "volatility_latest": 21.827661408274132, "volatility_previous": 28.419419190352077, "volatility_mean": 25.123540299313106 }, { "id": "PY-06-015-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "TAVAI / CAAZAPA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 38.910696761530915, 47.64651592062759, 8.597662771285476 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-06-015-M-2021-10-10", "PY-06-015-M-2015-11-15", "PY-06-015-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 58.96303565587177, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1.815505397448479, 39.221458946679746 ], [ 66.5205353022612, 0, 0, 0, 0, 18.874019381633595, 14.605445316105214 ], [ 47.913188647746246, 39.31552587646077, 0, 0, 9.070673344462994, 0, 3.7006121313299944 ] ], "volatility_latest": 24.616013630574535, "volatility_previous": 48.386199220923764, "volatility_mean": 36.50110642574915 }, { "id": "PY-06-015-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "TAVAI / CAAZAPA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 45.94770180282605, 44.83650905669254, 10.70398153491056 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-06-015-C-2021-10-10", "PY-06-015-C-2015-11-15", "PY-06-015-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 61.94575280168913, 0, 0, 3.946727302257593, 0, 2.1763846028910185, 31.931135293162253 ], [ 64.50247000705717, 0, 0, 0, 0, 19.66596095036462, 15.831569042578217 ], [ 45.03750721292556, 34.333525678015, 0, 0, 8.684362377380266, 7.559145989613387, 4.385458742065782 ] ], "volatility_latest": 20.046293552841636, "volatility_previous": 43.01788805539527, "volatility_mean": 31.532090804118454 }, { "id": "PY-06-017-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YUTY / CAAZAPA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 37.96100831988079, 1.9799179748267572, 0.4669079024162484 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-06-017-M-2021-10-10", "PY-06-017-M-2015-11-15", "PY-06-017-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 67.52762945486154, 29.566621134980753, 0, 0, 0, 2.9057494101577053, 0 ], [ 49.384811200678826, 47.40489322585207, 0, 0, 0, 3.210295573469099, 0 ], [ 45.850356017275594, 46.31726391969184, 0, 0, 2.4162483950040854, 0, 5.4161316680284814 ] ], "volatility_latest": 18.142818254182714, "volatility_previous": 7.832380063032565, "volatility_mean": 12.98759915860764 }, { "id": "PY-06-017-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YUTY / CAAZAPA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 50.00615384615384, 6.241834809115982, 15.01103752759382 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-06-017-C-2021-10-10", "PY-06-017-C-2015-11-15", "PY-06-017-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 72.57846153846154, 22.572307692307692, 0, 1.5261538461538462, 0, 2.769230769230769, 0.5538461538461539 ], [ 48.454057192625925, 42.212222383509946, 0, 0, 2.220931920452896, 4.848308898243577, 2.264479605167659 ], [ 42.00392445425558, 26.99288692666176, 0, 1.7292126563649743, 4.856512141280353, 15.636497424576895, 8.780966396860435 ] ], "volatility_latest": 25.65055819198946, "volatility_previous": 21.669468195218528, "volatility_mean": 23.660013193603994 }, { "id": "PY-07-001-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ALTO VERA / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 17.97492767598843, 20.88248143294015, 12.060625604643663 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-001-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-001-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-001-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 8.721182020302653, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 55.294117647058826, 37.319189971070394, 0, 0, 0, 1.9672131147540983, 5.4194792671166825 ], [ 60.44124071647008, 39.55875928352992, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 55.17574975814254, 43.11512415349887, 0, 0, 0.3547242824895195, 0, 1.3544018058690745 ] ], "volatility_latest": 7.38669238187078, "volatility_previous": 5.26549095832754, "volatility_mean": 6.32609167009916 }, { "id": "PY-07-001-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ALTO VERA / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 22.466281310211947, 31.964741359313383, 7.138179436804191 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-001-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-001-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-001-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 53.834296724470136, 31.36801541425819, 6.589595375722543, 0, 0, 4.354527938342967, 3.8535645472061657 ], [ 61.00672697749942, 29.041985618186036, 0, 0, 0, 9.951287404314543, 0 ], [ 48.16633922724296, 41.02815979043877, 0, 0, 8.25147347740668, 0, 2.5540275049115913 ] ], "volatility_latest": 12.76918971900086, "volatility_previous": 22.791675154571006, "volatility_mean": 17.780432436785933 }, { "id": "PY-07-003-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "BELLA VISTA / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ null, 49.76197143657239, 26.119402985074625 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-003-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-003-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-003-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 100.0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 66.25595071408569, 16.4939792775133, 0, 12.545505460655278, 0, 4.704564547745729, 0 ], [ 50.19467878001298, 21.512005191434135, 0, 0, 4.218040233614536, 0, 24.075275794938353 ] ], "volatility_latest": 33.744049285914315, "volatility_previous": 33.31134194247372, "volatility_mean": 33.527695614194016 }, { "id": "PY-07-003-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "BELLA VISTA / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 46.91789368604941, 41.73027989821883, 23.278145695364238 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-003-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-003-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-003-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 66.78312952333417, 13.351634639381084, 0, 19.86523583728475, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 60.503251342946, 15.097540288379983, 0, 18.77297144472717, 0, 5.6262369239468475, 0 ], [ 45.99337748344371, 22.71523178807947, 0, 9.503311258278146, 5.264900662251655, 0, 16.52317880794702 ] ], "volatility_latest": 7.372142572945748, "volatility_previous": 29.405770969898164, "volatility_mean": 18.388956771421956 }, { "id": "PY-07-005-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CAMBYRETA / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 16.04570013507429, 11.189690397611189, 0.3698224852071006 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-005-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-005-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-005-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 34.89345275575679, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 40.53354344889689, 56.579243583971184, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2.8872129671319224 ], [ 43.43862957724344, 54.62831997485463, 0, 0, 0, 1.933050447901933, 0 ], [ 45.739644970414204, 46.1094674556213, 0, 0, 3.8461538461538463, 0, 4.3047337278106514 ] ], "volatility_latest": 4.83813657624848, "volatility_previous": 10.451902967135261, "volatility_mean": 7.645019771691871 }, { "id": "PY-07-005-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CAMBYRETA / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 2.491929546355553, 0.34829094443544467, 12.982140177097403 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-005-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-005-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-005-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 85.51070485573146, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 45.630628079515205, 48.12255762587076, 0, 0, 0, 0, 6.246814294614034 ], [ 44.82423456990118, 44.47594362546574, 1.0043738862789569, 0, 1.9358496679086343, 3.596306496031103, 4.163291754414385 ], [ 47.44109260093051, 34.45895242383311, 0, 2.5964280354194806, 5.192856070838961, 0, 10.310670868977938 ] ], "volatility_latest": 6.536530050218696, "volatility_previous": 14.61767158394269, "volatility_mean": 10.577100817080693 }, { "id": "PY-07-007-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CAPITAN MEZA / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 17.150395778364118, 49.917718047174986, 55.50777373470063 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-007-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-007-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-007-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 56.42040457343887, 0, 0, 0, 4.309586631486368, 0, 39.27000879507476 ], [ 74.9588590235875, 25.041140976412507, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 69.07045980813761, 13.562686073436984, 0, 10.519351637446245, 6.84750248097916, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 43.57959542656113, "volatility_previous": 17.366854118425405, "volatility_mean": 30.473224772493268 }, { "id": "PY-07-007-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CAPITAN MEZA / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 27.366345311130587, 50.857142857142854, 46.66892120392289 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-007-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-007-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-007-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 59.46538124452235, 0, 0, 0, 8.43558282208589, 0, 32.09903593339176 ], [ 68.14285714285714, 17.285714285714285, 0, 0, 14.571428571428571, 0, 0 ], [ 61.379776800811634, 14.710855596888738, 0, 14.507947243828204, 9.401420358471423, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 32.09903593339176, "volatility_previous": 14.507947243828202, "volatility_mean": 23.30349158860998 }, { "id": "PY-07-009-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CAPITAN MIRANDA / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 60.74133120765245, 33.15217391304348, 8.00561797752809 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-009-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-009-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-009-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 73.35591869270625, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 26.644081307293746 ], [ 59.03209109730849, 25.87991718426501, 0, 0, 0, 0, 15.087991718426501 ], [ 54.002808988764045, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 45.997191011235955 ] ], "volatility_latest": 25.87991718426501, "volatility_previous": 30.909199292809454, "volatility_mean": 28.394558238537233 }, { "id": "PY-07-009-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CAPITAN MIRANDA / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 53.21556173084557, 27.1417343463453, 13.811374072765807 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-009-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-009-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-009-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 68.459706232632, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 31.540293767368002 ], [ 51.76840450615667, 24.62667015981137, 0, 0, 2.6198585276395074, 0, 20.985066806392453 ], [ 56.9056870363829, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 43.0943129636171 ] ], "volatility_latest": 27.246528687450876, "volatility_previous": 27.246528687450876, "volatility_mean": 27.246528687450876 }, { "id": "PY-07-011-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CARLOS ANTONIO LOPEZ / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 20.683733999375587, 7.17948717948718, 7.8096539162112935 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-011-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-011-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-011-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 23.27474027453682, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 59.256946612550735, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40.74305338744927 ], [ 46.41025641025641, 0, 0, 0, 0, 53.58974358974359, 0 ], [ 39.86794171220401, 32.05828779599271, 0, 0, 3.551912568306011, 0, 24.52185792349727 ] ], "volatility_latest": 53.58974358974359, "volatility_previous": 60.13205828779599, "volatility_mean": 56.86090093876979 }, { "id": "PY-07-011-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CARLOS ANTONIO LOPEZ / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 41.8266253869969, 17.51697381183317, 15.01612160294795 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-011-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-011-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-011-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 57.26006191950464, 0, 0, 0, 0, 15.23219814241486, 27.507739938080498 ], [ 49.641125121241515, 18.234723569350145, 0, 0, 0, 32.12415130940834, 0 ], [ 39.75126669737448, 24.73514509442653, 0, 0, 4.514048825426071, 0, 30.999539382772916 ] ], "volatility_latest": 35.126676736343626, "volatility_previous": 42.01400973327537, "volatility_mean": 38.5703432348095 }, { "id": "PY-07-013-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CARMEN DEL PARANA / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 1.7933618843683083, 52.90896646132786, 25.79136690647482 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-013-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-013-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-013-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 2.3607812016658847, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 48.63490364025696, 0, 46.84154175588865, 0, 0, 0, 4.5235546038543895 ], [ 76.45448323066393, 23.54551676933607, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 55.21582733812949, 6.546762589928058, 8.81294964028777, 0, 0, 0, 29.424460431654676 ] ], "volatility_latest": 51.365096359743035, "volatility_previous": 38.23741007194245, "volatility_mean": 44.80125321584274 }, { "id": "PY-07-013-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CARMEN DEL PARANA / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 22.79194630872483, 47.32080723729993, 39.80690679539547 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-013-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-013-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-013-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 54.65771812080537, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 45.34228187919463 ], [ 66.91022964509395, 19.589422407794014, 0, 0, 13.500347947112038, 0, 0 ], [ 54.28889714073524, 7.797994801336799, 10.360193093204604, 0, 13.070924619383588, 0, 14.481990345339769 ] ], "volatility_latest": 45.34228187919463, "volatility_previous": 24.842183438544374, "volatility_mean": 35.092232658869506 }, { "id": "PY-07-043-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "PIRAPO / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 56.04053000779423, 9.00788709007887, 23.34474885844749 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-043-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-043-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-043-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 78.02026500389712, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 21.979734996102884 ], [ 46.74138646741387, 15.525114155251142, 0, 0, 37.733499377334994, 0, 0 ], [ 53.710045662100455, 30.365296803652967, 0, 7.30593607305936, 8.618721461187215, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 53.25861353258614, "volatility_previous": 29.114777916147776, "volatility_mean": 41.186695724366956 }, { "id": "PY-07-043-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "PIRAPO / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 58.75243664717349, 10.741687979539641, 31.4878892733564 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-043-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-043-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-043-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 78.3625730994152, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 21.637426900584796 ], [ 42.24211423699915, 16.58141517476556, 0, 9.676044330775788, 31.500426257459505, 0, 0 ], [ 55.70934256055364, 24.22145328719723, 0, 10.092272202998847, 9.976931949250288, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 57.75788576300085, "volatility_previous": 21.523494308209216, "volatility_mean": 39.64069003560503 }, { "id": "PY-07-015-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CORONEL BOGADO / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 12.864622288706059, 13.784286378428638, 9.284207109235513 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-015-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-015-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-015-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 36.08760001162111, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 41.168928304306014, 54.03355059301207, 0, 0, 1.549310823805962, 0, 3.2482102788759484 ], [ 43.107856810785684, 56.892143189214316, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 44.99269599091057, 54.27690310014608, 0, 0, 0.7304009089433533, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 4.797521102681912, "volatility_previous": 2.6152400890682377, "volatility_mean": 3.706380595875075 }, { "id": "PY-07-015-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CORONEL BOGADO / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 8.83661792752702, 1.2797295665821562, 4.022988505747127 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-015-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-015-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-015-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 69.55905761467214, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 46.7154058063149, 37.878787878787875, 0, 6.717524899343081, 2.6064844246662426, 1.8118245390972663, 4.2699724517906334 ], [ 41.44633586864663, 42.72606543522878, 0, 8.547627671133647, 4.491126403477001, 1.1227816008692502, 1.666063020644694 ], [ 42.52873563218391, 46.55172413793103, 0, 8.0623973727422, 2.857142857142857, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 8.562022307042229, "volatility_previous": 4.908058466239533, "volatility_mean": 6.735040386640881 }, { "id": "PY-07-017-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "EDELIRA / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 20.860965677719605, 7.062368972746331, 0.9477792231927151 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-017-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-017-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-017-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 26.34965989612533, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 52.35602094240838, 0, 0, 0, 0, 9.656777196044212, 37.98720186154741 ], [ 38.233752620545076, 45.2961215932914, 0, 0, 0, 16.47012578616352, 0 ], [ 26.22189184166512, 27.169671064857834, 0, 1.26370563092362, 22.839620888310723, 0, 22.505110574242707 ] ], "volatility_latest": 52.109470183410714, "volatility_previous": 46.60843709347705, "volatility_mean": 49.35895363844388 }, { "id": "PY-07-017-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "EDELIRA / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 25.26059763724809, 0.16297704739915794, 3.395295902883156 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-017-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-017-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-017-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 22.276093565715428, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 47.24345610377577, 0, 0, 1.5751679406995598, 3.2198285846652768, 7.296733842946491, 40.6648135279129 ], [ 33.002852098329484, 32.839875050930324, 0, 3.5175879396984926, 3.028656797501019, 16.419937525465162, 11.191090588075513 ], [ 26.441578148710168, 20.637329286798177, 0, 3.300455235204856, 23.046282245827012, 0, 26.57435508345979 ] ], "volatility_latest": 43.90549873244793, "volatility_previous": 35.40088994371027, "volatility_mean": 39.6531943380791 }, { "id": "PY-07-000-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ENCARNACION / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 17.51842588698789, 0.24496223498877256, 24.48245577349337 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-000-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-000-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-000-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 34.836051099806475, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 41.24078705650605, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 58.75921294349395 ], [ 47.80263042780905, 0, 2.910384649033274, 0, 0, 0, 49.28698492315768 ], [ 58.89339634477855, 34.41094057128518, 0, 0, 6.695663083936264, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 9.47222802033627, "volatility_previous": 52.19736957219095, "volatility_mean": 30.834798796263613 }, { "id": "PY-07-000-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ENCARNACION / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 22.24671059881427, 30.487656573026875, 28.14350400557297 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-000-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-000-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-000-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 45.28684459921099, 23.040134000396712, 0, 0, 0, 1.9615189650232516, 29.711502435369052 ], [ 46.72868782682719, 16.241031253800315, 5.210993554663748, 0, 2.5021281770643315, 3.2773926790708985, 26.039766508573518 ], [ 49.2206548241031, 21.07715081853013, 0, 12.29972135144549, 5.903866248693835, 0, 11.498606757227448 ] ], "volatility_latest": 10.470838673391931, "volatility_previous": 23.029545985080716, "volatility_mean": 16.750192329236324 }, { "id": "PY-07-019-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "FRAM / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 23.979352416705773, 2.86908077994429, 12.753829711435696 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-019-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-019-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-019-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 17.381406724248404, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 38.01032379164712, 0, 61.98967620835288, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 45.069637883008355, 3.1197771587743732, 42.200557103064064, 0, 0, 0, 9.610027855153204 ], [ 30.103313145707162, 25.828286426790168, 42.857142857142854, 0, 0, 0, 1.2112575703598147 ] ], "volatility_latest": 19.789119105288815, "volatility_previous": 23.365095022094586, "volatility_mean": 21.5771070636917 }, { "id": "PY-07-019-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "FRAM / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 8.93985490287854, 11.2884834663626, 22.08499818379949 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-019-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-019-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-019-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 45.205210999920745, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 37.2571963491692, 16.545752398783055, 46.19705125204774, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 45.66704675028506, 5.216647662485747, 34.37856328392246, 0, 3.135689851767389, 5.15963511972634, 6.442417331812999 ], [ 23.86487468216491, 18.08935706501998, 45.9498728659644, 7.77333817653469, 2.615328732292045, 0, 1.707228478023974 ] ], "volatility_latest": 23.14759270442259, "volatility_previous": 32.21735716111086, "volatility_mean": 27.682474932766723 }, { "id": "PY-07-021-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "GENERAL ARTIGAS / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 11.04375828755446, 9.86591955173104, 1.2284370099320439 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-021-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-021-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-021-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 51.45562730477404, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 44.478120856222766, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 55.521879143777234 ], [ 54.93295977586552, 45.06704022413448, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 47.04652378463147, 48.27496079456351, 0, 0, 3.3193936225823313, 0, 1.3591217982226869 ] ], "volatility_latest": 55.521879143777234, "volatility_previous": 7.886435991234051, "volatility_mean": 31.704157567505643 }, { "id": "PY-07-021-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "GENERAL ARTIGAS / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 10.647887323943662, 15.885524678556616, 7.194437015244718 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-021-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-021-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-021-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 40.63083250271173, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 55.32394366197183, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 44.67605633802817 ], [ 50.974699294898386, 35.089174616341765, 1.783492326835338, 0, 0, 12.152633761924513, 0 ], [ 46.69697780155121, 39.5025407863065, 0, 0, 5.135062851029687, 0, 8.665418561112597 ] ], "volatility_latest": 49.025300705101614, "volatility_previous": 18.213847582107018, "volatility_mean": 33.61957414360432 }, { "id": "PY-07-023-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "GENERAL DELGADO / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 5.649867374005305, 10.20714500150105, 13.963116296575084 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-023-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-023-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-023-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 60.758122227444964, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 47.08222811671087, 52.73209549071618, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0.1856763925729443 ], [ 43.98078655058541, 54.18793155208646, 0, 0, 0, 1.8312818973281297, 0 ], [ 43.01844185171246, 56.98155814828754, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 3.2871179586984085, "volatility_previous": 2.793626596201078, "volatility_mean": 3.0403722774497433 }, { "id": "PY-07-023-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "GENERAL DELGADO / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 0.05238344683080147, 9.444955535111928, 12.771846579675762 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-023-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-023-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-023-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 79.28949306700183, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 46.88318491356731, 46.83080146673651, 0, 0, 0, 4.138292299633316, 2.1477213200628604 ], [ 39.12910150260656, 48.57405703771849, 1.0732904017172646, 0, 2.6678932842686294, 8.555657773689052, 0 ], [ 36.93159351522341, 49.70344009489917, 0, 0, 13.364966389877422, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 9.901804731023612, "volatility_previous": 11.82645616278947, "volatility_mean": 10.86413044690654 }, { "id": "PY-07-025-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "HOHENAU / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 10.762819351331762, 14.79340612288589, 7.844990548204159 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-025-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-025-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-025-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 41.59893748757379, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 50.6432324696503, 39.880413118318536, 0, 0, 9.476354412031165, 0, 0 ], [ 57.39670306144295, 42.60329693855705, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 42.06049149338374, 49.9054820415879, 0, 2.9300567107750473, 5.103969754253308, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 9.476354412031164, "volatility_previous": 15.336211568059205, "volatility_mean": 12.406282990045185 }, { "id": "PY-07-025-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "HOHENAU / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 24.046762589928058, 24.596774193548388, 7.942583732057416 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-025-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-025-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-025-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 52.44604316546763, 28.399280575539567, 2.6079136690647484, 8.129496402877697, 7.823741007194244, 0, 0.5935251798561151 ], [ 56.16039426523297, 31.56362007168459, 6.832437275985663, 3.718637992831541, 1.724910394265233, 0, 0 ], [ 44.94417862838915, 37.00159489633174, 5.2631578947368425, 7.017543859649122, 5.773524720893142, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 11.103214202831282, "volatility_previous": 12.78549501809264, "volatility_mean": 11.94435461046196 }, { "id": "PY-07-029-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "JESUS / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 69.0885072655218, 12.709030100334449, 17.058346839546193 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-029-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-029-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-029-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 79.35931307793923, 0, 3.2034346103038307, 0, 2.4108322324966975, 0, 15.026420079260237 ], [ 55.08361204013378, 2.5418060200668897, 0, 0, 42.374581939799334, 0, 0 ], [ 48.703403565640194, 19.32739059967585, 0, 0, 0.3241491085899514, 0, 31.645056726094005 ] ], "volatility_latest": 42.505555727369526, "volatility_previous": 48.43064130570297, "volatility_mean": 45.468098516536244 }, { "id": "PY-07-029-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "JESUS / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 52.93739967897271, 23.784167554135607, 11.503322259136212 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-029-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-029-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-029-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 66.96629213483146, 14.028892455858747, 5.682182985553772, 0, 2.7608346709470304, 0, 10.561797752808989 ], [ 43.8054668086617, 16.719914802981897, 0, 0, 20.02129925452609, 19.453319133830316, 0 ], [ 38.205980066445186, 19.725913621262457, 0, 0, 15.365448504983389, 0, 26.70265780730897 ] ], "volatility_latest": 39.40480606453253, "volatility_previous": 29.70865662558953, "volatility_mean": 34.55673134506103 }, { "id": "PY-07-031-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "JOSE LEANDRO OVIEDO / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 9.94044892349977, 9.782001117942984, 6.639511201629328 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-031-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-031-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-031-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 52.185895951771556, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 45.029775538250114, 54.970224461749886, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 45.10899944102851, 54.89100055897149, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 46.680244399185334, 53.319755600814666, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 0.07922390277839497, "volatility_previous": 1.571244958156825, "volatility_mean": 0.82523443046761 }, { "id": "PY-07-031-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "JOSE LEANDRO OVIEDO / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 21.0, 10.040045766590389, 11.340640809443508 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-031-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-031-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-031-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 16.269610945392664, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 39.5, 60.5, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 43.82151029748284, 53.86155606407323, 0, 0, 0, 2.316933638443936, 0 ], [ 42.70657672849916, 54.047217537942664, 0, 0, 3.246205733558179, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 6.638443935926774, "volatility_previous": 3.4318672074276164, "volatility_mean": 5.035155571677195 }, { "id": "PY-07-033-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LA PAZ / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ null, 24.29530201342282, 6.711979609175871 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-033-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-033-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-033-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 100.0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 62.147651006711406, 37.852348993288594, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 52.16652506372132, 45.45454545454545, 0, 0, 2.37892948173322, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 37.852348993288594, "volatility_previous": 9.981125942990081, "volatility_mean": 23.91673746813934 }, { "id": "PY-07-033-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LA PAZ / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 48.88463989802422, 52.23880597014925, 13.069647463456578 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-033-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-033-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-033-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 74.44231994901212, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 25.55768005098789 ], [ 76.11940298507463, 23.880597014925375, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 54.94411006018917, 41.87446259673259, 0, 0, 3.181427343078246, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 25.55768005098789, "volatility_previous": 21.17529292488546, "volatility_mean": 23.366486487936676 }, { "id": "PY-07-035-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "MAYOR OTAÑO / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 6.066428767499314, 29.73799961751769, 18.809579167635434 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-035-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-035-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-035-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 27.788924687407814, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 46.96678561625034, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 53.03321438374966 ], [ 58.615414037100784, 28.877414419583094, 0, 0, 0, 12.507171543316122, 0 ], [ 58.428272494768656, 39.61869332713322, 0, 0, 1.9297837712159962, 0, 0.023250406882120437 ] ], "volatility_latest": 53.03321438374966, "volatility_previous": 12.694313085648249, "volatility_mean": 32.863763734698956 }, { "id": "PY-07-035-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "MAYOR OTAÑO / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 4.099480732440558, 28.99628252788104, 5.056734089787864 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-035-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-035-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-035-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 41.67876696596283, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 48.89314020224105, 0, 0, 0, 3.4298988794752665, 1.3938234490297896, 46.2831374692539 ], [ 56.46644492271571, 27.47016239483467, 0, 0, 4.578360399139112, 11.485032283310506, 0 ], [ 43.53724716329551, 38.480513073507645, 0, 0, 5.204736063147509, 0, 12.777503700049335 ] ], "volatility_latest": 46.283137469253894, "volatility_previous": 24.414230042730704, "volatility_mean": 35.3486837559923 }, { "id": "PY-07-037-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "NATALIO / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 6.755744255744256, 20.793388429752067, 6.804281345565749 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-037-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-037-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-037-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 45.140543915356254, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 39.57292707292707, 0, 0.5494505494505495, 0, 0, 9.328171828171827, 50.54945054945055 ], [ 49.68595041322314, 21.421487603305785, 0, 0, 0, 28.892561983471076, 0 ], [ 46.19648318042813, 39.392201834862384, 0, 0, 14.181957186544343, 0, 0.22935779816513763 ] ], "volatility_latest": 51.0989010989011, "volatility_previous": 32.38202921626608, "volatility_mean": 41.74046515758359 }, { "id": "PY-07-037-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "NATALIO / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 34.61635220125786, 19.036267665588284, 12.583431488025127 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-037-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-037-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-037-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 50.25157232704402, 14.50314465408805, 4.352201257861635, 0, 0, 9.245283018867925, 21.647798742138367 ], [ 46.77336965775583, 15.579771837221182, 8.411374084794824, 0, 1.4983824280606164, 27.737101992167545, 0 ], [ 43.08990969768355, 30.50647820965842, 5.30035335689046, 0, 14.998036906164115, 0, 6.105221829603455 ] ], "volatility_latest": 25.12600141142656, "volatility_previous": 34.53158268014419, "volatility_mean": 29.828792045785377 }, { "id": "PY-07-039-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "NUEVA ALBORADA / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 16.790254237288135, 7.820762593932646, 0.974817221770918 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-039-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-039-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-039-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 37.41068478635117, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 53.628177966101696, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 46.371822033898304 ], [ 46.08961870303368, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 53.91038129696632 ], [ 33.30625507717303, 34.28107229894395, 0, 13.363119415109667, 1.380991064175467, 0, 17.66856214459789 ] ], "volatility_latest": 7.5385592630680165, "volatility_previous": 49.02518277822909, "volatility_mean": 28.281871020648552 }, { "id": "PY-07-039-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "NUEVA ALBORADA / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 17.718832891246684, 5.001381597126278, 1.608910891089109 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-039-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-039-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-039-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 38.53697348502598, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 44.58885941644562, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 55.41114058355438 ], [ 47.49930920143686, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 52.50069079856314 ], [ 35.64356435643565, 34.03465346534654, 0, 10.973597359735974, 2.0214521452145213, 0, 17.326732673267326 ] ], "volatility_latest": 2.9104497849912363, "volatility_previous": 47.02970297029703, "volatility_mean": 24.970076377644133 }, { "id": "PY-07-041-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "OBLIGADO / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 60.3021978021978, 67.7822400713967, 12.835660580021482 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-041-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-041-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-041-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 80.1510989010989, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 19.8489010989011 ], [ 83.89112003569835, 16.10887996430165, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 49.91944146079484, 37.08378088077336, 0, 0, 12.620837808807734, 0, 0.37593984962406013 ] ], "volatility_latest": 19.848901098901095, "volatility_previous": 33.97167857490351, "volatility_mean": 26.9102898369023 }, { "id": "PY-07-041-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "OBLIGADO / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 58.662355343771274, 47.74982690976229, 24.552572706935123 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-041-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-041-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-041-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 77.48468345813478, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3.6929884275017018, 18.82232811436351 ], [ 62.42787906762059, 10.108469882298639, 0, 14.678052157858296, 0, 12.78559889222248, 0 ], [ 43.70805369127517, 19.155480984340045, 0, 17.869127516778523, 14.87695749440716, 0, 4.390380313199105 ] ], "volatility_latest": 33.87913250487771, "volatility_previous": 31.505424268567896, "volatility_mean": 32.692278386722805 }, { "id": "PY-07-045-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN COSME Y DAMIAN / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 13.786997217303314, 5.742108797850906, 36.16337769619091 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-045-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-045-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-045-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 31.94415630321824, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 50.543890715911964, 0, 10.245383253225398, 0, 0, 0, 39.21072603086264 ], [ 46.91067830758899, 0, 0.4365345869711216, 0, 0, 0, 52.65278710543989 ], [ 62.36805874254245, 26.20468104635154, 0, 0, 11.427260211106011, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 13.442061074577254, "volatility_previous": 53.08932169241101, "volatility_mean": 33.26569138349413 }, { "id": "PY-07-045-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN COSME Y DAMIAN / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 17.799597180261834, 0.17289073305670816, 40.8115671641791 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-045-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-045-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-045-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 25.93608877753988, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 52.61832829808661, 0, 8.987915407854985, 0, 0, 0, 38.39375629405841 ], [ 46.0926694329184, 0, 6.36237897648686, 0, 1.6251728907330567, 0, 45.91977869986169 ], [ 62.26679104477612, 21.455223880597014, 0, 0, 9.514925373134329, 0, 6.763059701492537 ] ], "volatility_latest": 9.151195296536333, "volatility_previous": 45.51909797485601, "volatility_mean": 27.33514663569617 }, { "id": "PY-07-047-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN JUAN DEL PARANA / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 8.71383757406762, 17.71978021978022, 4.948096885813149 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-047-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-047-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-047-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 44.80476850522024, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 45.64308121296619, 54.35691878703381, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 58.05860805860806, 40.33882783882784, 1.6025641025641026, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 41.3840830449827, 46.332179930795846, 0, 0, 9.44636678200692, 0, 2.837370242214533 ] ], "volatility_latest": 14.018090948205973, "volatility_previous": 18.277089116189458, "volatility_mean": 16.147590032197716 }, { "id": "PY-07-047-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN JUAN DEL PARANA / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 4.670281616232289, 12.768468255841396, 5.661712668082095 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-047-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-047-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-047-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 64.00559643349999, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 47.717334266223546, 43.04705264999125, 9.235613083785202, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 52.584375737550154, 39.815907481708756, 2.4073637007316497, 0, 2.8085909841869245, 2.383762095822516, 0 ], [ 38.32271762208068, 43.98443029016278, 0, 0, 10.155697098372258, 0, 7.537154989384288 ] ], "volatility_latest": 10.059394551336048, "volatility_previous": 19.052783912023642, "volatility_mean": 14.556089231679845 }, { "id": "PY-07-049-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN PEDRO DEL PARANA / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 8.814911281132996, 7.300126330987187, 10.285250463821892 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-049-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-049-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-049-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 57.462451428209285, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 42.07227738889793, 50.88718867003093, 0, 0, 0, 2.287156112648543, 4.753377828422595 ], [ 42.38404620104674, 35.08391987005955, 0, 0, 0.532394874571377, 21.999639054322323, 0 ], [ 38.34647495361781, 48.631725417439704, 0, 0, 0, 0, 13.021799628942485 ] ], "volatility_latest": 20.55664662839397, "volatility_previous": 26.569605176322636, "volatility_mean": 23.5631259023583 }, { "id": "PY-07-049-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN PEDRO DEL PARANA / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 3.56882147781653, 6.824435883324161, 11.969715178464126 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-049-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-049-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-049-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 73.0720241523321, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 43.572065860978185, 47.14088733879471, 0, 0, 0, 3.6985968042825856, 5.588449995944521 ], [ 41.845532929737665, 35.0210970464135, 0, 0, 1.0456796917996698, 22.087690332049164, 0 ], [ 34.467011176541284, 46.436726355005405, 0, 0, 4.939310179065016, 0, 14.156952289388295 ] ], "volatility_latest": 19.43477321956625, "volatility_previous": 29.466212085245544, "volatility_mean": 24.4504926524059 }, { "id": "PY-07-051-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN RAFAEL DEL PARANA / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 11.947016460905349, 5.108082059754922, 12.991635522334935 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-051-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-051-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-051-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 50.001009766484096, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 54.629629629629626, 42.68261316872428, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2.6877572016460904 ], [ 43.756023681674236, 48.864105741429164, 0, 0, 0, 7.379870576896599, 0 ], [ 33.52909770421783, 46.520733226552764, 0, 0, 4.573767574301477, 0, 15.376401494927924 ] ], "volatility_latest": 13.561363149601481, "volatility_previous": 19.950169069229403, "volatility_mean": 16.755766109415443 }, { "id": "PY-07-051-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN RAFAEL DEL PARANA / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 10.681730645782514, 0.14230823964707556, 8.16179126038281 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-051-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-051-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-051-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 63.660450072990436, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 52.612658877904735, 41.93092823212223, 0, 0, 0, 1.938631403261009, 3.5177814867120296 ], [ 43.41824391632276, 43.27593567667568, 0, 0, 2.7323182012238507, 10.573502205777714, 0 ], [ 32.30408089563019, 40.465872156013, 0, 2.4196460816179126, 7.276995305164319, 0, 17.533405561574575 ] ], "volatility_latest": 12.712196448294007, "volatility_previous": 24.49772874713296, "volatility_mean": 18.604962597713484 }, { "id": "PY-07-053-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "TOMAS ROMERO PEREIRA / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 14.987473156764496, 20.233907007701816, 11.785195936139333 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-053-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-053-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-053-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 18.794122050084127, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 47.75411596277738, 0, 0, 0, 0, 16.54438081603436, 35.70150322118826 ], [ 39.060568603213845, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1.1980602833507654, 59.74137111343539 ], [ 50.79825834542816, 39.01306240928882, 0, 2.365747460087083, 0, 0, 7.822931785195936 ] ], "volatility_latest": 24.039867892247127, "volatility_previous": 53.11649961159022, "volatility_mean": 38.57818375191867 }, { "id": "PY-07-053-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "TOMAS ROMERO PEREIRA / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 20.355008473820355, 8.69177403369673, 27.601674641148325 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-053-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-053-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-053-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 12.096476207419682, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 46.33841762554634, 0, 0, 1.9355989653019356, 2.1853536705021854, 9.392560877709393, 40.14806886094015 ], [ 37.71060455896928, 18.75123885034688, 0, 0, 2.130822596630327, 2.566897918731417, 38.8404360753221 ], [ 43.67523923444976, 16.073564593301434, 0, 2.4970095693779903, 9.629186602870814, 0, 28.125 ] ], "volatility_latest": 18.75123885034688, "volatility_previous": 15.960008251098962, "volatility_mean": 17.35562355072292 }, { "id": "PY-07-055-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "TRINIDAD / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 41.22019994873109, 52.215070049223776, 32.18940052128584 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-055-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-055-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-055-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 61.75339656498334, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 38.24660343501666 ], [ 76.10753502461189, 23.892464975388112, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 58.123370981754995, 13.249348392701998, 0, 0, 0.9122502172024327, 0, 27.715030408340574 ] ], "volatility_latest": 38.24660343501666, "volatility_previous": 28.62728062554301, "volatility_mean": 33.43694203027984 }, { "id": "PY-07-055-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "TRINIDAD / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 55.26651364447845, 46.592267835791155, 28.711985688729875 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-055-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-055-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-055-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 71.56337668962, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 28.436623310380007 ], [ 68.59306496612196, 22.00079713033081, 0, 4.782781984854524, 4.623355918692706, 0, 0 ], [ 51.52057245080501, 15.429338103756708, 0, 5.858676207513417, 2.0572450805008944, 0, 25.13416815742397 ] ], "volatility_latest": 31.406935033878046, "volatility_previous": 26.21006238008286, "volatility_mean": 28.80849870698045 }, { "id": "PY-07-057-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YATYTAY / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 9.49827652240521, 16.655893126481363, 25.499016024739948 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-057-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-057-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-057-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 33.77182273069235, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 46.801991574109536, 37.30371505170433, 0, 0, 0, 15.051704327843739, 0.8425890463423975 ], [ 41.67205343675932, 58.32794656324068, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 48.97385437166151, 23.474838346921562, 0, 2.5583356761315716, 4.132696092212539, 20.860275513072814, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 21.02423151153635, "volatility_previous": 34.853108216319114, "volatility_mean": 27.938669863927732 }, { "id": "PY-07-057-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YATYTAY / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 12.693854106835152, 15.164684354986276, 23.273144167383204 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-057-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-057-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-057-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 27.534839063323524, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 45.203905801263645, 32.51005169442849, 0, 0, 0, 19.012062033314187, 3.2739804709936817 ], [ 42.429094236047575, 27.2644098810613, 3.636779505946935, 1.6010978956999085, 3.705397987191217, 21.363220494053063, 0 ], [ 47.49211808541129, 24.218973918028087, 0, 3.468042419031241, 5.073086844368014, 19.747778733161365, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 11.294433849576938, "volatility_previous": 8.297657229871847, "volatility_mean": 9.796045539724393 }, { "id": "PY-08-001-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "AYOLAS / MISIONES", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 50.708833151581246, 17.669930875576036, 21.400709219858157 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-08-001-M-2021-10-10", "PY-08-001-M-2015-11-15", "PY-08-001-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 75.35441657579062, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 24.645583424209377 ], [ 57.848502304147466, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40.17857142857143, 1.972926267281106 ], [ 59.52127659574468, 38.12056737588652, 0, 0, 1.6134751773049645, 0, 0.7446808510638298 ] ], "volatility_latest": 40.17857142857143, "volatility_previous": 41.40681684478871, "volatility_mean": 40.79269413668007 }, { "id": "PY-08-001-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "AYOLAS / MISIONES", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 58.43174303259329, 29.93813188471405, 26.8854242204496 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-08-001-C-2021-10-10", "PY-08-001-C-2015-11-15", "PY-08-001-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 77.56258856872934, 0, 0, 0, 3.3065658951346246, 0, 19.130845536136043 ], [ 50.973291081937525, 11.830390825411197, 0, 0, 4.210049796287913, 21.03515919722348, 11.951109099139881 ], [ 46.464829586657, 19.579405366207396, 0, 0, 3.4989122552574328, 0, 30.456852791878173 ] ], "volatility_latest": 33.76903392378797, "volatility_previous": 26.25475823353449, "volatility_mean": 30.01189607866123 }, { "id": "PY-08-003-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN IGNACIO / MISIONES", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 47.664099743307666, 22.650017343045437, 13.623097769439234 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-08-003-M-2021-10-10", "PY-08-003-M-2015-11-15", "PY-08-003-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 68.15548221488815, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 31.844517785111844 ], [ 56.5961382818823, 33.94612093883686, 0, 0, 0, 8.706208810267082, 0.7515319690137588 ], [ 48.5511778194705, 34.92808005003127, 0, 1.6677089847821556, 0, 1.5217844486137169, 13.331248697102355 ] ], "volatility_latest": 42.65232974910394, "volatility_previous": 15.229384824065159, "volatility_mean": 28.94085728658455 }, { "id": "PY-08-003-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN IGNACIO / MISIONES", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 45.284103153509086, 20.48362483859608, 17.728766832785496 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-08-003-C-2021-10-10", "PY-08-003-C-2015-11-15", "PY-08-003-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 65.43351770706127, 20.149414553552187, 1.3361109115724445, 0, 2.262768479275914, 4.769772286473673, 6.048416062064507 ], [ 49.64197675783543, 29.158351919239347, 0, 0, 3.944124897288414, 10.447235591031811, 6.808310834605001 ], [ 45.551903297635455, 27.823136464849963, 0, 3.7323719647969464, 3.5203053758880287, 3.2234121514155443, 16.14887074541406 ] ], "volatility_latest": 17.127651860798288, "volatility_previous": 13.07293187560601, "volatility_mean": 15.100291868202149 }, { "id": "PY-08-000-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN JUAN BAUTISTA / MISIONES", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 15.192704748795595, 11.7810188989318, 0.7376058041112454 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-08-000-M-2021-10-10", "PY-08-000-M-2015-11-15", "PY-08-000-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 36.3815545031599, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 57.01995870612526, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 42.98004129387474 ], [ 43.097781429745275, 54.87880032867707, 0, 0, 0, 2.02341824157765, 0 ], [ 48.73035066505442, 49.46795646916566, 0, 0, 1.8016928657799274, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 56.902218570254725, "volatility_previous": 7.434262101089067, "volatility_mean": 32.168240335671896 }, { "id": "PY-08-000-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN JUAN BAUTISTA / MISIONES", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 14.63897983801482, 5.228553537883531, 4.3706507141985105 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-08-000-C-2021-10-10", "PY-08-000-C-2015-11-15", "PY-08-000-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 46.054904822030984, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 54.79062553851456, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 45.20937446148544 ], [ 40.377791692757256, 45.606345230640784, 0, 7.201001878522229, 0, 6.814861198079733, 0 ], [ 47.00280795995605, 42.63215724575754, 0, 0, 3.186424124038579, 0, 7.178610670247833 ] ], "volatility_latest": 59.622208307242744, "volatility_previous": 16.990051061485207, "volatility_mean": 38.306129684363974 }, { "id": "PY-08-005-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN MIGUEL / MISIONES", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 71.71344165435745, 70.21063189568706, 41.69062679700978 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-08-005-M-2021-10-10", "PY-08-005-M-2015-11-15", "PY-08-005-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 85.85672082717873, 14.14327917282127, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 85.10531594784354, 14.89468405215647, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 70.84531339850489, 29.15468660149511, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 0.7514048793351984, "volatility_previous": 14.260002549338648, "volatility_mean": 7.5057037143369225 }, { "id": "PY-08-005-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN MIGUEL / MISIONES", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 76.3193052772211, 43.69706028898854, 43.41720304271504 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-08-005-C-2021-10-10", "PY-08-005-C-2015-11-15", "PY-08-005-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 85.1369405477622, 8.817635270541082, 4.342017368069472, 0, 0, 1.7034068136272544, 0 ], [ 60.73741903338316, 12.506228201295466, 9.715994020926756, 0, 0, 17.04035874439462, 0 ], [ 67.52486834406085, 24.107665301345815, 0, 0, 8.36746635459333, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 24.399521514379032, "volatility_previous": 26.75635276532137, "volatility_mean": 25.5779371398502 }, { "id": "PY-08-007-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN PATRICIO / MISIONES", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 8.394267329628546, 10.811821922933033, 3.8767395626242545 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-08-007-M-2021-10-10", "PY-08-007-M-2015-11-15", "PY-08-007-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 56.66109534540269, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 45.802866335185726, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 54.197133664814274 ], [ 44.59408903853348, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 55.40591096146652 ], [ 42.24652087475149, 38.36978131212724, 0, 0, 0, 0, 19.383697813121273 ] ], "volatility_latest": 1.2087772966522436, "volatility_previous": 38.36978131212724, "volatility_mean": 19.78927930438974 }, { "id": "PY-08-007-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN PATRICIO / MISIONES", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 0.029197080291970802, 9.145880574452002, 9.821882951653944 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-08-007-C-2021-10-10", "PY-08-007-C-2015-11-15", "PY-08-007-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 81.2826464216191, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 49.284671532846716, 0, 1.4598540145985401, 0, 0, 0, 49.25547445255474 ], [ 45.427059712773996, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 54.572940287226004 ], [ 36.895674300254456, 27.07379134860051, 0, 0, 5.648854961832061, 0, 30.38167938931298 ] ], "volatility_latest": 5.31746583467126, "volatility_previous": 32.722646310432566, "volatility_mean": 19.020056072551913 }, { "id": "PY-08-009-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SANTA MARIA / MISIONES", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 75.98920863309353, 30.481862479696805, 1.5888147442008262 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-08-009-M-2021-10-10", "PY-08-009-M-2015-11-15", "PY-08-009-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 87.99460431654676, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 12.005395683453237 ], [ 63.56253383865728, 33.08067135896048, 0, 0, 0.2977801840822956, 3.059014618299946, 0 ], [ 49.12615189068955, 50.714966634890374, 0, 0, 0.15888147442008263, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 36.43746616134272, "volatility_previous": 17.634295275929894, "volatility_mean": 27.035880718636307 }, { "id": "PY-08-009-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SANTA MARIA / MISIONES", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 71.25408942202836, 30.718414533443436, 0.031877590054191905 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-08-009-C-2021-10-10", "PY-08-009-C-2015-11-15", "PY-08-009-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 83.4896401308615, 0, 1.3304252998909487, 1.7666303162486368, 0, 0, 13.413304252998909 ], [ 59.510046793283784, 28.791632259840352, 0, 0, 1.0459675199559593, 10.6523534269199, 0 ], [ 46.70066942939114, 46.66879183933695, 0, 0, 6.6305387312719155, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 40.48995320671621, "volatility_previous": 23.46173079081255, "volatility_mean": 31.97584199876438 }, { "id": "PY-08-011-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SANTA ROSA / MISIONES", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 4.998503442083209, 1.9694360740421868, 4.349070100143061 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-08-011-M-2021-10-10", "PY-08-011-M-2015-11-15", "PY-08-011-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 79.87580051261556, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 47.041803851142376, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 52.958196148857624 ], [ 48.38570813603099, 50.355144210073185, 0, 0, 0, 1.0546706844597504, 0.20447696943607405 ], [ 43.54792560801145, 47.896995708154506, 0, 5.0929899856938485, 1.2875536480686696, 0, 2.1745350500715306 ] ], "volatility_latest": 52.75371917942155, "volatility_previous": 8.350601714397975, "volatility_mean": 30.552160446909763 }, { "id": "PY-08-011-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SANTA ROSA / MISIONES", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 1.5795748062785615, 1.4170943985717475, 0.36358347876672487 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-08-011-C-2021-10-10", "PY-08-011-C-2015-11-15", "PY-08-011-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 92.95384224392333, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 49.274786409696006, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2.3842638585336777, 48.340949731770316 ], [ 41.798705646061144, 43.21580004463289, 0, 0, 5.4340548984601655, 2.923454586029904, 6.62798482481589 ], [ 40.02326934264107, 40.38685282140779, 0, 5.802792321116929, 5.381035485747527, 0, 8.406050029086678 ] ], "volatility_latest": 49.18904567058929, "volatility_previous": 7.5808575253877155, "volatility_mean": 28.3849515979885 }, { "id": "PY-08-013-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SANTIAGO / MISIONES", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 12.571564885496183, 8.333333333333334, 4.74430067775724 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-08-013-M-2021-10-10", "PY-08-013-M-2015-11-15", "PY-08-013-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 47.413155004632834, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 56.03530534351145, 43.463740458015266, 0, 0, 0, 0.5009541984732825, 0 ], [ 45.833333333333336, 54.166666666666664, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 45.5637707948244, 50.30807147258164, 0, 0, 4.128157732593962, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 10.7029262086514, "volatility_previous": 4.128157732593962, "volatility_mean": 7.415541970622681 }, { "id": "PY-08-013-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SANTIAGO / MISIONES", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 1.285102332222751, 7.741420590582602, 7.516238787503866 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-08-013-C-2021-10-10", "PY-08-013-C-2015-11-15", "PY-08-013-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 80.7744427237059, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 49.85721085197525, 48.5721085197525, 0, 0, 0, 1.5706806282722514, 0 ], [ 42.857142857142854, 50.59856344772546, 0, 0, 6.544293695131684, 0, 0 ], [ 42.00433034333437, 49.52056913083823, 0, 0, 8.475100525827404, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 8.570748623104649, "volatility_previous": 1.9308068306957176, "volatility_mean": 5.250777726900183 }, { "id": "PY-08-015-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "VILLA FLORIDA / MISIONES", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 22.716248989490705, 6.3602790315962245, 20.707656612529004 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-08-015-M-2021-10-10", "PY-08-015-M-2015-11-15", "PY-08-015-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 11.957006177869046, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 61.358124494745354, 38.641875505254646, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 53.18013951579811, 46.81986048420189, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 39.09512761020882, 59.80278422273782, 0, 0, 1.1020881670533642, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 8.177984978947244, "volatility_previous": 14.085011905589292, "volatility_mean": 11.131498442268267 }, { "id": "PY-08-015-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "VILLA FLORIDA / MISIONES", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 22.316043425814232, 11.012658227848101, 4.956268221574344 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-08-015-C-2021-10-10", "PY-08-015-C-2015-11-15", "PY-08-015-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 14.054748269997985, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 61.158021712907114, 38.841978287092886, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 52.0253164556962, 41.0126582278481, 0, 0, 0, 6.962025316455696, 0 ], [ 46.53061224489796, 51.4868804664723, 0, 0, 1.9825072886297377, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 9.132705257210912, "volatility_previous": 12.456729527253938, "volatility_mean": 10.794717392232425 }, { "id": "PY-08-017-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YAVEVYRY / MISIONES", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 83.02094818081588, 39.436619718309856, 41.826604897418925 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-08-017-M-2021-10-10", "PY-08-017-M-2015-11-15", "PY-08-017-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 91.51047409040794, 8.489525909592063, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 69.71830985915493, 30.281690140845072, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 61.4824619457313, 19.655857048312377, 0, 0, 18.86168100595632, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 21.79216423125301, "volatility_previous": 18.86168100595632, "volatility_mean": 20.326922618604666 }, { "id": "PY-08-017-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YAVEVYRY / MISIONES", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 68.31839746968899, 29.588014981273407, 43.74581939799331 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-08-017-C-2021-10-10", "PY-08-017-C-2015-11-15", "PY-08-017-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 78.86136004217185, 9.857670005271482, 0, 0, 0, 0, 11.280969952556669 ], [ 51.98501872659176, 22.39700374531835, 0, 0, 11.01123595505618, 0, 14.606741573033707 ], [ 62.80936454849498, 18.127090301003346, 0, 0, 19.06354515050167, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 26.87634131558009, "volatility_previous": 18.876655017348714, "volatility_mean": 22.8764981664644 }, { "id": "PY-09-001-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ACAHAY / PARAGUARI", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 1.994744386048734, 4.097311139564661, 11.659933896437753 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-001-M-2021-10-10", "PY-09-001-M-2015-11-15", "PY-09-001-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 82.03983318428794, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 37.14763497372193, 0, 0, 0.29861442904921165, 0, 1.3497372193024366, 61.20401337792642 ], [ 50.16360791008678, 46.06629677052212, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3.770095319391094 ], [ 31.93169298567756, 43.591626882115314, 0, 0, 19.62908556738891, 0, 4.847594564818215 ] ], "volatility_latest": 59.082269706886976, "volatility_previous": 20.70658481281603, "volatility_mean": 39.894427259851504 }, { "id": "PY-09-001-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ACAHAY / PARAGUARI", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 19.7667428159192, 4.952100221075903, 6.278026905829597 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-001-C-2021-10-10", "PY-09-001-C-2015-11-15", "PY-09-001-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 30.132607767713736, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 40.182758206083925, 20.416015390164723, 0, 0.8897438980401587, 0, 2.0079355536852233, 36.50354695202597 ], [ 46.21960206337509, 41.26750184229919, 0.6927044952100221, 0, 1.9749447310243184, 2.2697126013264555, 7.575534266764922 ], [ 29.74588938714499, 36.02391629297459, 0, 0, 18.572496263079223, 0, 15.657698056801195 ] ], "volatility_latest": 29.817756583301207, "volatility_previous": 24.679715322091177, "volatility_mean": 27.248735952696194 }, { "id": "PY-09-003-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CAAPUCU / PARAGUARI", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 13.972463029066803, 17.456021650879567, 28.681120144534777 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-003-M-2021-10-10", "PY-09-003-M-2015-11-15", "PY-09-003-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 17.558018364212856, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 56.9862315145334, 43.0137684854666, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 41.27198917456022, 58.72801082543978, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 31.21047877145438, 59.89159891598916, 0, 0, 3.9295392953929538, 0, 4.968383017163505 ] ], "volatility_latest": 15.714242339973183, "volatility_previous": 10.061510403105835, "volatility_mean": 12.887876371539509 }, { "id": "PY-09-003-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CAAPUCU / PARAGUARI", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 1.2223071046600458, 15.352112676056338, 26.584587323301413 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-003-C-2021-10-10", "PY-09-003-C-2015-11-15", "PY-09-003-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 60.012616010284646, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 47.89915966386555, 49.12146676852559, 0, 0, 0, 2.9793735676088615, 0 ], [ 29.753521126760564, 45.105633802816904, 0, 0, 0, 19.471830985915492, 5.669014084507042 ], [ 27.861377108983127, 54.44596443228454, 0, 0, 5.107159142726858, 0, 12.585499316005471 ] ], "volatility_latest": 22.161471502813672, "volatility_previous": 21.363975003692925, "volatility_mean": 21.7627232532533 }, { "id": "PY-09-005-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CARAPEGUA / PARAGUARI", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 6.097231600270088, 19.759177188728156, 1.2325461127391828 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-005-M-2021-10-10", "PY-09-005-M-2015-11-15", "PY-09-005-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 51.45326635972791, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 47.5219446320054, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 52.4780553679946 ], [ 59.87958859436408, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40.12041140563592 ], [ 34.9853473539045, 28.564040682640925, 0, 1.2411653163247716, 33.752801241165315, 0, 1.4566454059644889 ] ], "volatility_latest": 12.35764396235868, "volatility_previous": 63.55800724013101, "volatility_mean": 37.95782560124485 }, { "id": "PY-09-005-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CARAPEGUA / PARAGUARI", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 29.050865233350812, 12.67605633802817, 1.3129293104947395 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-005-C-2021-10-10", "PY-09-005-C-2015-11-15", "PY-09-005-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 54.73911903513372, 25.688253801782906, 0, 2.9496591504981646, 3.559255374934452, 0, 13.06371263765076 ], [ 37.684644452078324, 25.008588114050156, 4.749227069735486, 0, 10.846788045345242, 6.715905187220886, 14.994847131569907 ], [ 32.88409703504043, 25.18911399008782, 0, 2.1737240239979134, 31.571167724545692, 0, 8.181897226328147 ] ], "volatility_latest": 20.68379942128631, "volatility_previous": 23.078629579236026, "volatility_mean": 21.881214500261166 }, { "id": "PY-09-007-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ESCOBAR / PARAGUARI", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ null, null, 39.130434782608695 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-007-M-2021-10-10", "PY-09-007-M-2015-11-15", "PY-09-007-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 100.0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 100.0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 61.790281329923275, 8.900255754475703, 0, 0, 22.65984654731458, 0, 6.649616368286445 ] ], "volatility_latest": 0.0, "volatility_previous": 38.209718670076725, "volatility_mean": 19.104859335038363 }, { "id": "PY-09-007-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ESCOBAR / PARAGUARI", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 82.87237587470842, 35.89890867317634, 40.33828805740646 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-007-C-2021-10-10", "PY-09-007-C-2015-11-15", "PY-09-007-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 91.43618793735422, 8.563812062645784, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 63.584147041929924, 27.68523836875359, 0, 0, 0, 8.730614589316485, 0 ], [ 60.99436186570989, 10.251153254741158, 0, 0, 20.656073808303436, 0, 8.098411071245515 ] ], "volatility_latest": 27.852040895424295, "volatility_previous": 28.75448487954895, "volatility_mean": 28.303262887486625 }, { "id": "PY-09-009-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "GRAL. BERNARDINO CABALLERO / PARAGUARI", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 68.76601977297693, 14.959202175883952, 52.25148683092608 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-009-M-2021-10-10", "PY-09-009-M-2015-11-15", "PY-09-009-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 79.75100695715855, 10.984987184181618, 0, 0, 0, 0, 9.264005858659832 ], [ 57.47960108794198, 42.52039891205802, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 68.64910790144435, 11.682242990654206, 0, 0, 3.2710280373831777, 0, 16.397621070518266 ] ], "volatility_latest": 31.5354117278764, "volatility_previous": 30.838155921403814, "volatility_mean": 31.18678382464011 }, { "id": "PY-09-009-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "GRAL. BERNARDINO CABALLERO / PARAGUARI", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 67.4442538593482, 21.102661596958175, 41.25964010282777 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-009-C-2021-10-10", "PY-09-009-C-2015-11-15", "PY-09-009-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 83.15608919382504, 15.711835334476843, 0, 0, 0, 1.1320754716981132, 0 ], [ 57.79467680608365, 36.69201520912547, 0, 0, 5.513307984790875, 0, 0 ], [ 58.48329048843188, 13.624678663239074, 0, 0, 10.668380462724937, 0, 17.223650385604113 ] ], "volatility_latest": 26.4934878594395, "volatility_previous": 23.0673365458864, "volatility_mean": 24.78041220266295 }, { "id": "PY-09-011-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LA COLMENA / PARAGUARI", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 38.18284743843759, 33.602735467827166, 29.04865649963689 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-011-M-2021-10-10", "PY-09-011-M-2015-11-15", "PY-09-011-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 69.0914237192188, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 30.908576280781205 ], [ 66.80136773391358, 0, 33.19863226608641, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 60.602759622367465, 31.554103122730574, 0, 0, 0.5809731299927379, 0, 7.262164124909223 ] ], "volatility_latest": 33.19863226608642, "volatility_previous": 39.39724037763253, "volatility_mean": 36.297936321859474 }, { "id": "PY-09-011-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LA COLMENA / PARAGUARI", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 47.638547638547635, 35.40453074433657, 26.768781911013857 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-011-C-2021-10-10", "PY-09-011-C-2015-11-15", "PY-09-011-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 69.47856947856948, 21.84002184002184, 0, 0, 0, 0, 8.681408681408682 ], [ 58.18770226537217, 22.783171521035598, 0, 0, 6.666666666666667, 12.362459546925566, 0 ], [ 54.777534646243616, 28.00875273522976, 0, 0, 4.230488694383662, 0, 12.983223924142962 ] ], "volatility_latest": 19.972275894605993, "volatility_previous": 18.208805138337123, "volatility_mean": 19.090540516471556 }, { "id": "PY-09-013-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "MBUYAPEY / PARAGUARI", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 31.811867434014687, 0.5718502121379819, 11.31887309897781 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-013-M-2021-10-10", "PY-09-013-M-2015-11-15", "PY-09-013-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 65.90593371700734, 34.09406628299266, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 49.714074893931006, 50.285925106068994, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 37.17277486910995, 48.49164796808776, 0, 0.7978060334081276, 3.016704063824483, 0, 10.521067065569683 ] ], "volatility_latest": 16.191858823076338, "volatility_previous": 14.335577162802291, "volatility_mean": 15.263717992939315 }, { "id": "PY-09-013-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "MBUYAPEY / PARAGUARI", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 33.359856773423516, 3.8147138964577656, 8.052013003250813 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-013-C-2021-10-10", "PY-09-013-C-2015-11-15", "PY-09-013-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 66.67992838671175, 33.32007161328824, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 36.60957571039315, 40.42428960685091, 0, 0, 11.24951342934994, 0, 11.716621253405995 ], [ 37.259314828707176, 45.31132783195799, 0, 3.000750187546887, 3.3758439609902475, 0, 11.0527631907977 ] ], "volatility_latest": 30.070352676318603, "volatility_previous": 8.537527530967989, "volatility_mean": 19.303940103643296 }, { "id": "PY-09-000-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "PARAGUARI / PARAGUARI", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 58.993506493506494, 44.80286738351254, 46.43406875320677 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-000-M-2021-10-10", "PY-09-000-M-2015-11-15", "PY-09-000-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 73.57142857142857, 11.85064935064935, 14.577922077922079, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 68.24638258330015, 4.022301871764237, 0, 0, 4.287800345148016, 0, 23.4435151997876 ], [ 64.73405165041902, 18.299982897212246, 0, 3.283735248845562, 10.501111681204037, 2.4456986488797674, 0.7354198734393707 ] ], "volatility_latest": 27.731315544935615, "volatility_previous": 26.22042625922936, "volatility_mean": 26.975870902082487 }, { "id": "PY-09-000-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "PARAGUARI / PARAGUARI", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 58.811839765714886, 40.8974875722155, 40.63958513396716 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-000-C-2021-10-10", "PY-09-000-C-2015-11-15", "PY-09-000-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 69.85670954921034, 11.04486978349545, 7.739776174040372, 0, 1.2864763100094132, 3.1482062545758813, 6.9239619286685485 ], [ 61.62837565497783, 9.673518742442564, 0, 0, 4.339647991401317, 3.6275695284159615, 20.730888082762327 ], [ 58.11581676750216, 17.476231633535004, 0, 8.33189282627485, 10.216076058772687, 2.9732065687121865, 2.8867761452031115 ] ], "volatility_latest": 17.339461109325764, "volatility_previous": 22.01103378473866, "volatility_mean": 19.675247447032213 }, { "id": "PY-09-015-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "PIRAYU / PARAGUARI", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 5.82610912799592, 8.909617240270183, 7.70223752151463 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-015-M-2021-10-10", "PY-09-015-M-2015-11-15", "PY-09-015-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 65.30612799484965, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 45.20652728199898, 51.0326364099949, 0, 0, 0, 0.8286588475267721, 2.9321774604793474 ], [ 43.856545513026695, 52.76616275329688, 0, 0, 0.3859761981344484, 2.991315535541975, 0 ], [ 40.684165232358005, 48.38640275387263, 0, 0, 8.950086058519794, 1.9793459552495698, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 4.282159229451633, "volatility_previous": 8.564109860385347, "volatility_mean": 6.42313454491849 }, { "id": "PY-09-015-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "PIRAYU / PARAGUARI", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 11.40240842950326, 9.64401294498382, 7.071583514099783 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-015-C-2021-10-10", "PY-09-015-C-2015-11-15", "PY-09-015-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 47.79096353696459, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 41.996989463120926, 53.39939789262419, 0, 0, 0, 1.2167586552935274, 3.3868539889613647 ], [ 41.61812297734628, 51.262135922330096, 0, 0, 3.203883495145631, 3.9158576051779934, 0 ], [ 40.433839479392624, 47.50542299349241, 0, 0, 7.462039045553145, 0, 4.598698481561822 ] ], "volatility_latest": 5.902982445030098, "volatility_previous": 8.856854031969336, "volatility_mean": 7.379918238499717 }, { "id": "PY-09-017-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "QUIINDY / PARAGUARI", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 12.607290157173113, 2.1150892118634053, 10.75794621026895 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-017-M-2021-10-10", "PY-09-017-M-2015-11-15", "PY-09-017-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 53.626522605551074, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 43.32850295396277, 55.93579311113588, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0.7357039349013488 ], [ 51.0575446059317, 48.9424553940683, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 42.887962030778084, 53.64590824104703, 0, 0, 2.7182511146267796, 0, 0.7478786135481087 ] ], "volatility_latest": 7.729041651968933, "volatility_previous": 8.16958257515362, "volatility_mean": 7.949312113561277 }, { "id": "PY-09-017-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "QUIINDY / PARAGUARI", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 12.626262626262626, 11.939559078523656, 6.935319024675135 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-017-C-2021-10-10", "PY-09-017-C-2015-11-15", "PY-09-017-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 40.744213991089076, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 52.83267457180501, 40.20641194554238, 0, 0, 0, 0, 6.960913482652613 ], [ 48.38989348526133, 36.450334406737674, 0, 0, 4.60738171909834, 1.4862521674510776, 9.066138221451572 ], [ 39.15900131406045, 32.22368228938531, 0, 0, 5.022631041027887, 0, 23.594685355526355 ] ], "volatility_latest": 8.198858625348379, "volatility_previous": 14.94379645600433, "volatility_mean": 11.571327540676354 }, { "id": "PY-09-019-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "QUYQUYHO / PARAGUARI", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 59.64963503649635, 36.510161177295025, 7.721606648199446 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-019-M-2021-10-10", "PY-09-019-M-2015-11-15", "PY-09-019-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 79.82481751824818, 20.175182481751825, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 68.25508058864752, 0, 0, 0, 31.744919411352488, 0, 0 ], [ 35.353185595567865, 13.331024930747922, 0, 0, 43.07479224376731, 0, 8.240997229916898 ] ], "volatility_latest": 31.74491941135249, "volatility_previous": 32.90189499307965, "volatility_mean": 32.323407202216075 }, { "id": "PY-09-019-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "QUYQUYHO / PARAGUARI", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 84.25689116226201, 39.68368080517613, 3.3531260915123995 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-019-C-2021-10-10", "PY-09-019-C-2015-11-15", "PY-09-019-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 91.64535379369138, 7.388462631429383, 0, 0, 0.966183574879227, 0, 0 ], [ 61.93386053199137, 15.815959741193385, 0, 0, 22.25017972681524, 0, 0 ], [ 38.386308068459655, 14.949353824659449, 0, 0, 35.03318197694726, 0, 11.631156129933636 ] ], "volatility_latest": 29.711493261700014, "volatility_previous": 24.414158380065654, "volatility_mean": 27.062825820882836 }, { "id": "PY-09-021-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN ROQUE GONZALEZ / PARAGUARI", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 13.406079501169135, 45.61309364099812, 6.209739757794383 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-021-M-2021-10-10", "PY-09-021-M-2015-11-15", "PY-09-021-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 42.40062353858145, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 57.59937646141855 ], [ 64.3681244969144, 16.876844647169307, 0, 0, 18.755030855916285, 0, 0 ], [ 43.03014686936356, 20.149446019067252, 0, 0, 36.82040711156918, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 57.59937646141855, "volatility_previous": 21.337977627550842, "volatility_mean": 39.46867704448469 }, { "id": "PY-09-021-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN ROQUE GONZALEZ / PARAGUARI", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 59.8136284216657, 36.266816143497756, 8.948901244373841 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-021-C-2021-10-10", "PY-09-021-C-2015-11-15", "PY-09-021-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 73.46146379343817, 13.647835371772471, 0, 0, 3.0867792661619102, 2.60143661424966, 7.202484954377791 ], [ 54.091928251121075, 16.928251121076233, 0, 0, 17.82511210762332, 11.154708520179373, 0 ], [ 40.48186391315859, 17.79189833200953, 0, 0, 31.53296266878475, 0, 10.193275086047127 ] ], "volatility_latest": 26.572020496694883, "volatility_previous": 24.764772858141857, "volatility_mean": 25.66839667741837 }, { "id": "PY-09-023-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAPUCAI / PARAGUARI", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 56.87053216838761, 54.11089866156788, 61.004273504273506 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-023-M-2021-10-10", "PY-09-023-M-2015-11-15", "PY-09-023-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 73.73576912893832, 9.398993910510988, 0, 16.865236960550703, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 77.05544933078394, 22.94455066921606, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 77.99145299145299, 16.987179487179485, 0, 0, 3.4188034188034186, 0, 1.6025641025641026 ] ], "volatility_latest": 16.865236960550703, "volatility_previous": 5.95737118203657, "volatility_mean": 11.411304071293637 }, { "id": "PY-09-023-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAPUCAI / PARAGUARI", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 74.48822927328557, 47.99465240641711, 49.68966776195692 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-023-C-2021-10-10", "PY-09-023-C-2015-11-15", "PY-09-023-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 84.80040941658137, 10.312180143295803, 0, 4.887410440122825, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 65.57486631016043, 17.580213903743317, 0, 0, 7.018716577540107, 9.82620320855615, 0 ], [ 65.31580868930267, 15.626140927345746, 0, 0, 7.667031763417306, 0, 11.391018619934282 ] ], "volatility_latest": 24.11295354654377, "volatility_previous": 12.03933380581148, "volatility_mean": 18.076143676177626 }, { "id": "PY-09-025-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "TEBICUARYMI / PARAGUARI", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 27.380482022915842, 36.75648195221149, 19.0633608815427 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-025-M-2021-10-10", "PY-09-025-M-2015-11-15", "PY-09-025-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 62.93954958514421, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 37.060450414855794 ], [ 68.37824097610574, 31.621759023894256, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 52.94765840220386, 33.88429752066116, 0, 0, 1.7630853994490359, 0, 11.40495867768595 ] ], "volatility_latest": 37.060450414855794, "volatility_previous": 15.430582573901887, "volatility_mean": 26.24551649437884 }, { "id": "PY-09-025-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "TEBICUARYMI / PARAGUARI", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 41.06583072100314, 24.986508364813815, 17.84718349135527 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-025-C-2021-10-10", "PY-09-025-C-2015-11-15", "PY-09-025-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 68.10344827586206, 0, 0, 0, 1.64576802507837, 0, 30.25078369905956 ], [ 51.64597949271452, 26.6594711279007, 0, 0, 9.60604425256341, 12.08850512682137, 0 ], [ 50.41829336307864, 32.571109871723365, 0, 0, 4.238706079196877, 0, 12.771890686001116 ] ], "volatility_latest": 46.70825248220711, "volatility_previous": 18.683529429823782, "volatility_mean": 32.69589095601545 }, { "id": "PY-09-027-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YAGUARON / PARAGUARI", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 18.632059855657815, 21.7291857273559, 4.177992550085573 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-027-M-2021-10-10", "PY-09-027-M-2015-11-15", "PY-09-027-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 9.421045566949926, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 40.0913725749851, 58.723432430642916, 1.185194994371979, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 39.13540713632205, 60.86459286367795, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 45.29346622369878, 49.471458773784356, 0, 0, 5.235075002516863, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 2.141160433035031, "volatility_previous": 11.393134089893593, "volatility_mean": 6.767147261464312 }, { "id": "PY-09-027-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YAGUARON / PARAGUARI", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 4.831013916500994, 10.12200995344357, 0.3776666326426457 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-027-C-2021-10-10", "PY-09-027-C-2015-11-15", "PY-09-027-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 70.13511000401034, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 44.87077534791253, 49.70178926441352, 3.0682571239231278, 1.5175612988734262, 0, 0.8416169648774022, 0 ], [ 37.06052335848451, 47.182533311928076, 7.68983785519345, 0, 3.9251886338096003, 4.141916840584363, 0 ], [ 44.58507706440747, 44.962743697050115, 0, 3.643972644687149, 6.808206593855262, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 11.847069240786887, "volatility_previous": 14.051544310655773, "volatility_mean": 12.949306775721329 }, { "id": "PY-09-029-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YBYCUI / PARAGUARI", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 23.185011709601874, 60.782138399667176, 24.33967622834422 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-029-M-2021-10-10", "PY-09-029-M-2015-11-15", "PY-09-029-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 52.04639232742277, 0, 28.8613806178209, 0, 0, 0, 19.09222705475633 ], [ 80.39106919983358, 19.608930800166412, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 60.139165009940356, 35.79948878159614, 0, 0, 3.109911956830446, 0, 0.9514342516330588 ] ], "volatility_latest": 47.95360767257722, "volatility_previous": 20.251904189893228, "volatility_mean": 34.10275593123522 }, { "id": "PY-09-029-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YBYCUI / PARAGUARI", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 38.084827284652384, 56.364139457664635, 27.470298464213272 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-029-C-2021-10-10", "PY-09-029-C-2015-11-15", "PY-09-029-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 59.02929602098819, 14.363795365107126, 20.94446873633581, 3.716659379099257, 1.9457804984696108, 0, 0 ], [ 69.60431654676259, 13.240177089097953, 0, 0, 6.972883231876038, 0, 10.18262313226342 ], [ 55.76644450883802, 28.296146044624745, 0, 0, 6.128658359895683, 0, 9.808751086641553 ] ], "volatility_latest": 25.784746391444244, "volatility_previous": 15.05596895552679, "volatility_mean": 20.42035767348552 }, { "id": "PY-09-031-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YBYTYMI / PARAGUARI", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 9.812568908489526, 7.0932689405372775, 4.5672031317964334 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-031-M-2021-10-10", "PY-09-031-M-2015-11-15", "PY-09-031-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 57.63878829782729, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 45.09371554575524, 54.90628445424476, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 46.453365529731364, 53.546634470268636, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 47.281426707264025, 51.848629839060465, 0, 0, 0.8699434536755111, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 1.3596499839761265, "volatility_previous": 1.6980046312081714, "volatility_mean": 1.5288273075921488 }, { "id": "PY-09-031-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YBYTYMI / PARAGUARI", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 14.646881011266832, 7.893905904641617, 7.174295774647887 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-031-C-2021-10-10", "PY-09-031-C-2015-11-15", "PY-09-031-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 40.63135022191313, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 56.66391865897224, 42.017037647705415, 1.3190436933223413, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 44.33217556046732, 36.4382696558257, 11.682980738869592, 0, 0, 0, 7.546574044837386 ], [ 42.517605633802816, 35.34330985915493, 0, 0, 13.028169014084508, 0, 9.110915492957746 ] ], "volatility_latest": 17.910511090384638, "volatility_previous": 14.592510462204867, "volatility_mean": 16.25151077629475 }, { "id": "PY-10-000-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CIUDAD DEL ESTE / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 35.3857854626166, 9.928724968887883, 25.515612478735818 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-000-M-2021-10-10", "PY-10-000-M-2015-11-15", "PY-10-000-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 27.754668073944153, 3.2385490555202012, 0, 1.40469058003632, 0.48349294550421407, 0.14822977944029678, 66.97036956555482 ], [ 45.872836293698384, 35.9441113248105, 0, 0, 1.0804389636836746, 1.7739563299015726, 15.32865708790587 ], [ 62.29948403604718, 36.783871557311365, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0.9166444066414543 ] ], "volatility_latest": 53.04640305768527, "volatility_previous": 17.266407974849663, "volatility_mean": 35.15640551626747 }, { "id": "PY-10-000-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CIUDAD DEL ESTE / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 4.841825362687209, 12.268642782121601, 29.007700641232102 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-000-C-2021-10-10", "PY-10-000-C-2015-11-15", "PY-10-000-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 52.56770941813992, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 29.387244359285184, 10.687052750948265, 1.860556055214484, 2.4119188206311346, 1.2090877096938177, 0, 54.44414030422711 ], [ 34.44042478702299, 22.171782004901388, 0, 0, 1.7656669389660404, 2.084257206208426, 39.53786906290116 ], [ 53.05536848885896, 24.047667847626855, 0, 1.8402482944397272, 7.596697215471554, 0, 13.460018153602904 ] ], "volatility_latest": 19.178746117171574, "volatility_previous": 28.16210811550668, "volatility_mean": 23.670427116339127 }, { "id": "PY-10-001-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "DR. J. L. MALLORQUIN / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 3.346631205673759, 2.7951153324287654, 11.031051638359925 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-001-M-2021-10-10", "PY-10-001-M-2015-11-15", "PY-10-001-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 80.2519075651556, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 29.499113475177303, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 70.50088652482269 ], [ 44.50474898236092, 0, 0.5698778833107191, 0, 0, 7.625508819538671, 47.29986431478969 ], [ 43.02624806999486, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 56.97375193000514 ] ], "volatility_latest": 23.201022210033006, "volatility_previous": 9.673887615215456, "volatility_mean": 16.437454912624233 }, { "id": "PY-10-001-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "DR. J. L. MALLORQUIN / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 3.628092754909575, 2.0388615216201424, 5.6865464632454925 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-001-C-2021-10-10", "PY-10-001-C-2015-11-15", "PY-10-001-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 83.21415622121832, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 34.86075668478864, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 65.13924331521136 ], [ 40.9688013136289, 0, 5.541871921182266, 0, 0, 10.481663929939792, 43.00766283524904 ], [ 40.70735090152566, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 59.29264909847434 ] ], "volatility_latest": 22.131580479962317, "volatility_previous": 16.2849862632253, "volatility_mean": 19.208283371593808 }, { "id": "PY-10-003-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "DOMINGO MARTINEZ DE IRALA / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 22.966934763181413, 7.368092413362473, 5.15058926233086 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-003-M-2021-10-10", "PY-10-003-M-2015-11-15", "PY-10-003-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 17.47176245924662, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 0, 61.48346738159071, 0, 0, 0, 0, 38.51653261840929 ], [ 46.050577583515455, 53.418669996877924, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0.5307524196066188 ], [ 43.69271060672195, 48.843299869052814, 0, 0, 0, 0, 7.463989524225229 ] ], "volatility_latest": 46.050577583515455, "volatility_previous": 6.933237104618612, "volatility_mean": 26.491907344067034 }, { "id": "PY-10-003-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "DOMINGO MARTINEZ DE IRALA / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 37.68933768933769, 1.3190954773869348, 2.46804759806082 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-003-C-2021-10-10", "PY-10-003-C-2015-11-15", "PY-10-003-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 26.136026136026135, 63.82536382536382, 0, 0, 0, 0, 10.038610038610038 ], [ 46.04271356783919, 47.36180904522613, 0, 0, 0.8479899497487438, 0, 5.74748743718593 ], [ 44.24856765094756, 46.71661524900837, 0, 0, 0, 0, 9.034817100044073 ] ], "volatility_latest": 20.7546773815618, "volatility_previous": 3.2873296628581423, "volatility_mean": 12.021003522209972 }, { "id": "PY-10-005-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "HERNANDARIAS / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 23.5654397336029, 9.250928150251147, 2.561701558424186 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-005-M-2021-10-10", "PY-10-005-M-2015-11-15", "PY-10-005-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 14.146437794602495, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 28.283879407742166, 13.623119462448713, 0, 3.594576916215734, 0, 0.6065291074507938, 53.891895106142606 ], [ 50.355972919851496, 41.10504476960035, 0, 0, 0.48045424765232586, 4.127538763922254, 3.930989298973575 ], [ 40.59929101732325, 43.16099257574744, 0, 2.7957996120660824, 0, 9.096381512942278, 4.347535281920942 ] ], "volatility_latest": 53.555482723384756, "volatility_previous": 10.23713615018057, "volatility_mean": 31.896309436782662 }, { "id": "PY-10-005-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "HERNANDARIAS / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 13.282670242884816, 7.821845955645532, 6.256354639734291 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-005-C-2021-10-10", "PY-10-005-C-2015-11-15", "PY-10-005-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 45.291043018010114, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 34.024735508866044, 16.203248398152287, 1.871554164804053, 4.920280137088362, 1.4900908955446281, 1.4036656236030398, 40.086425271941586 ], [ 24.993098371215606, 17.171252415570073, 2.898684089445109, 1.9784669181926935, 0.648753105732953, 3.068924266126806, 49.24082083371675 ], [ 32.49508574527215, 26.238731105537855, 0, 4.6295668677557105, 4.039856300413475, 9.110011523080052, 23.486748457940756 ] ], "volatility_latest": 12.814788146357776, "volatility_previous": 28.652756465221106, "volatility_mean": 20.73377230578944 }, { "id": "PY-10-007-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "IRUÑA / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 12.903225806451612, 29.931549471064095, 77.4168600154679 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-007-M-2021-10-10", "PY-10-007-M-2015-11-15", "PY-10-007-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 37.6049491825011, 10.163499779054353, 0, 50.50817498895272, 0, 0, 1.723376049491825 ], [ 64.03235843186062, 1.866832607342875, 0, 34.10080896079651, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 86.5429234338747, 9.126063418406806, 0, 0, 4.331013147718484, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 26.42740924935951, "volatility_previous": 34.100808960796506, "volatility_mean": 30.264109105078006 }, { "id": "PY-10-007-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "IRUÑA / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 9.022556390977444, 25.01571338780641, 0.07457121551081283 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-007-C-2021-10-10", "PY-10-007-C-2015-11-15", "PY-10-007-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 35.37147513760265, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 49.66828836797877, 6.634232640424591, 0, 40.645731977001326, 0, 0, 3.051747014595312 ], [ 54.55688246385921, 8.42237586423633, 0, 29.541169076052796, 7.479572595851666, 0, 0 ], [ 41.68530947054437, 9.917971662938106, 0, 41.61073825503356, 6.785980611483967, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 14.156309915543844, "volatility_previous": 13.56516497768254, "volatility_mean": 13.860737446613193 }, { "id": "PY-10-009-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ITAKYRY / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 6.4694844071128585, 6.559215136650315, 11.073598919648886 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-009-M-2021-10-10", "PY-10-009-M-2015-11-15", "PY-10-009-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 65.2159246138615, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 41.265302475203285, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 58.73469752479671 ], [ 43.30763840224247, 19.018920812894184, 0, 0, 0.16818500350385424, 0, 37.505255781359494 ], [ 52.22822417285618, 41.15462525320729, 0, 0, 0.4726536124240378, 0, 6.144496961512491 ] ], "volatility_latest": 21.229441743437217, "volatility_previous": 31.360758819847003, "volatility_mean": 26.29510028164211 }, { "id": "PY-10-009-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ITAKYRY / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 5.996252342286072, 9.540329575021683, 18.275506698728957 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-009-C-2021-10-10", "PY-10-009-C-2015-11-15", "PY-10-009-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 58.56299526124478, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 36.584277683590614, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 63.41572231640939 ], [ 40.06938421509107, 17.649609713790113, 0, 0, 0.6938421509106678, 2.2983521248915872, 39.28881179531656 ], [ 51.82068017863277, 33.545173479903816, 0, 0, 4.5345242184816215, 0, 10.099622122981794 ] ], "volatility_latest": 24.126910521092828, "volatility_previous": 31.487541797226356, "volatility_mean": 27.80722615915959 }, { "id": "PY-10-011-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "JUAN E. O'LEARY / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 4.096358792184724, 1.3597890939364508, 0.8717074095129809 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-011-M-2021-10-10", "PY-10-011-M-2015-11-15", "PY-10-011-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 85.23538627778467, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 51.820603907637654, 47.72424511545293, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0.45515097690941386 ], [ 47.64811988344665, 49.0079089773831, 0, 0, 3.343971139170251, 0, 0 ], [ 44.7792306234603, 43.90752321394732, 0, 0, 5.590297517528899, 5.722948645063483, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 4.627635001100423, "volatility_previous": 7.96927502342213, "volatility_mean": 6.298455012261276 }, { "id": "PY-10-011-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "JUAN E. O'LEARY / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 6.994391290003299, 1.891659501289768, 7.874632713026445 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-011-C-2021-10-10", "PY-10-011-C-2015-11-15", "PY-10-011-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 72.24202052154223, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 50.76432420543275, 43.76993291542945, 0, 2.3534587044979656, 0, 0, 3.1122841746398326 ], [ 44.2103754657495, 42.31871596445973, 0, 0, 6.205216394382345, 7.265692175408426, 0 ], [ 43.54554358472086, 35.67091087169442, 0, 0, 7.619980411361411, 7.81586679725759, 5.3476983349657194 ] ], "volatility_latest": 13.47090856979077, "volatility_previous": 7.31263697379395, "volatility_mean": 10.391772771792361 }, { "id": "PY-10-013-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LOS CEDRALES / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 69.02595961837142, 18.87338773361411, 20.23141654978962 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-013-M-2021-10-10", "PY-10-013-M-2015-11-15", "PY-10-013-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 84.51297980918571, 15.487020190814288, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 59.436693866807055, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40.563306133192945 ], [ 47.26507713884993, 16.65497896213184, 0, 27.033660589060307, 1.5778401122019636, 0, 7.4684431977559615 ] ], "volatility_latest": 40.563306133192945, "volatility_previous": 45.26647966339411, "volatility_mean": 42.91489289829353 }, { "id": "PY-10-013-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LOS CEDRALES / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 58.24709609292503, 31.642716258100872, 20.249554367201426 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-013-C-2021-10-10", "PY-10-013-C-2015-11-15", "PY-10-013-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 68.74340021119325, 10.496304118268215, 0, 6.082365364308342, 1.0982048574445618, 0, 13.57972544878564 ], [ 48.49253310791772, 10.904480135249367, 0, 8.424908424908425, 1.3806706114398422, 0, 30.797407720484642 ], [ 44.27807486631016, 14.402852049910873, 0, 24.028520499108733, 2.5668449197860963, 0, 14.723707664884135 ] ], "volatility_latest": 20.25086710327552, "volatility_previous": 20.288158297208067, "volatility_mean": 20.269512700241794 }, { "id": "PY-10-015-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "MBARACAYU / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 11.425873465533522, 4.640371229698376, 18.68811881188119 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-015-M-2021-10-10", "PY-10-015-M-2015-11-15", "PY-10-015-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 49.41776335291127, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 55.712936732766764, 44.287063267233236, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 45.150812064965194, 49.791183294663576, 1.345707656612529, 0, 0.13921113689095127, 3.5730858468677495, 0 ], [ 18.935643564356436, 46.225247524752476, 0, 0, 0, 7.301980198019802, 27.537128712871286 ] ], "volatility_latest": 10.56212466780157, "volatility_previous": 31.26602306402334, "volatility_mean": 20.914073865912457 }, { "id": "PY-10-015-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "MBARACAYU / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 19.905511811023622, 21.8077474892396, 30.73482428115016 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-015-C-2021-10-10", "PY-10-015-C-2015-11-15", "PY-10-015-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 54.04724409448819, 34.14173228346457, 4.818897637795276, 0, 2.9606299212598426, 4.031496062992126, 0 ], [ 29.31611669057867, 51.12386417981827, 6.838833094213295, 0, 2.582496413199426, 4.112864658058346, 6.025824964131994 ], [ 14.952076677316294, 47.412140575079874, 0, 0, 9.13738019169329, 11.821086261980831, 16.677316293929714 ] ], "volatility_latest": 25.109260911969937, "volatility_previous": 24.91459671221407, "volatility_mean": 25.011928812092002 }, { "id": "PY-10-017-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "MINGA GUAZU / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 7.1104338240062255, 38.92182995158571, 26.715160796324657 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-017-M-2021-10-10", "PY-10-017-M-2015-11-15", "PY-10-017-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 6.928373202440441, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 37.066338110368974, 15.47240775565787, 0.9564879061020686, 0, 0, 0, 46.50476622787108 ], [ 61.99749768808138, 23.075667736495674, 0, 0, 2.7743023445574715, 2.71446445085133, 9.438067780014144 ], [ 61.332312404287904, 34.617151607963244, 0, 0, 0, 0.781010719754977, 3.2695252679938744 ] ], "volatility_latest": 38.02318635395901, "volatility_previous": 11.54148387146757, "volatility_mean": 24.78233511271329 }, { "id": "PY-10-017-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "MINGA GUAZU / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 23.05739945333854, 28.3498657313531, 22.30011815675463 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-017-C-2021-10-10", "PY-10-017-C-2015-11-15", "PY-10-017-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 45.54210594819732, 22.48470649485878, 1.8124430560978784, 0, 2.105297409865938, 0, 28.055447090980085 ], [ 53.24710911382693, 24.89724338247383, 0, 0, 3.079958349317696, 2.83882282018962, 15.93686633419192 ], [ 53.265064986215044, 30.964946829460416, 0, 0, 10.720756203229618, 0.968885387948011, 4.080346593146908 ] ], "volatility_latest": 13.931023812886043, "volatility_previous": 13.72645717328662, "volatility_mean": 13.828740493086332 }, { "id": "PY-10-019-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "MINGA PORA / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 18.511326860841425, 31.709593131765583, 3.348467650397276 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-019-M-2021-10-10", "PY-10-019-M-2015-11-15", "PY-10-019-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 37.88025889967638, 56.3915857605178, 0, 0, 0, 0, 5.728155339805825 ], [ 33.89324374766704, 65.60283687943263, 0, 0, 0.503919372900336, 0, 0 ], [ 35.811577752553916, 39.16004540295119, 0, 15.692395005675369, 0, 7.349602724177071, 1.9863791146424516 ] ], "volatility_latest": 9.715170491815163, "volatility_previous": 26.94671084938177, "volatility_mean": 18.330940670598466 }, { "id": "PY-10-019-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "MINGA PORA / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 2.2318561335902376, 7.892166438757569, 11.06947247045258 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-019-C-2021-10-10", "PY-10-019-C-2015-11-15", "PY-10-019-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 75.93144570586665, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 37.154784842646116, 34.922928709055874, 0, 9.794476557482337, 0, 10.067437379576107, 8.060372511239564 ], [ 22.66067591326431, 30.55284235202188, 0, 14.00664192225044, 7.911701504200039, 9.279156085172886, 15.588982223090447 ], [ 34.505621216488905, 23.43614874603632, 0, 15.537618910348804, 12.914384548861344, 8.965119631017584, 4.641106947247045 ] ], "volatility_latest": 19.652476580819023, "volatility_previous": 18.378605335984265, "volatility_mean": 19.015540958401644 }, { "id": "PY-10-021-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "NARANJAL / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 88.04702808621816, 77.07473635946813, 18.753799392097264 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-021-M-2021-10-10", "PY-10-021-M-2015-11-15", "PY-10-021-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 94.02351404310907, 5.9764859568909205, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 85.8321870701513, 5.4103622191655205, 0, 0, 8.757450710683173, 0, 0 ], [ 58.26747720364742, 39.51367781155015, 0, 0, 2.2188449848024314, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 8.75745071068317, "volatility_previous": 34.10331559238463, "volatility_mean": 21.430383151533903 }, { "id": "PY-10-021-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "NARANJAL / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 62.88756655183213, 37.5, 9.848005066497784 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-021-C-2021-10-10", "PY-10-021-C-2015-11-15", "PY-10-021-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 78.79736924522393, 5.292828061384278, 0, 15.909802693391795, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 63.27838827838828, 7.371794871794871, 0, 0, 3.5714285714285716, 0, 25.778388278388277 ], [ 38.03039898670044, 28.18239392020266, 0, 0, 7.694743508549715, 0, 26.092463584547183 ] ], "volatility_latest": 31.428783660227445, "volatility_previous": 25.247989291687837, "volatility_mean": 28.33838647595764 }, { "id": "PY-10-023-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ÑACUNDAY / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 6.754333532576211, 10.209889718961223, 8.072487644151565 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-023-M-2021-10-10", "PY-10-023-M-2015-11-15", "PY-10-023-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 60.38592100175375, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 48.35624626419605, 5.080693365212194, 0, 0, 41.60191273161985, 0, 4.961147638971907 ], [ 26.147278548559232, 12.984702952685877, 0, 0, 36.35716826752046, 0, 24.510850231234436 ], [ 35.694673256452496, 27.622185612300935, 3.6792970895112576, 0, 4.612850082372323, 0, 28.390993959362987 ] ], "volatility_latest": 27.45371217973621, "volatility_previous": 31.744318185148135, "volatility_mean": 29.599015182442173 }, { "id": "PY-10-023-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ÑACUNDAY / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 1.6162825501346902, 0.5454545454545454, 6.919642857142857 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-023-C-2021-10-10", "PY-10-023-C-2015-11-15", "PY-10-023-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 90.87314910284269, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 34.63035019455253, 12.84046692607004, 0, 9.877282250823107, 33.01406764441784, 0, 9.637832984136486 ], [ 28.036363636363635, 21.163636363636364, 0, 0, 28.581818181818182, 0, 22.21818181818182 ], [ 33.091517857142854, 22.767857142857142, 4.185267857142857, 0, 5.189732142857143, 0, 34.765625 ] ], "volatility_latest": 20.90351827161166, "volatility_previous": 23.392086038961036, "volatility_mean": 22.14780215528635 }, { "id": "PY-10-025-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "PRESIDENTE FRANCO / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 9.259777840007468, 30.67097817299919, 6.854639684106614 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-025-M-2021-10-10", "PY-10-025-M-2015-11-15", "PY-10-025-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 22.786879378425507, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 43.03494197081427, 52.294719810821746, 0, 0, 0, 0, 4.670338218363982 ], [ 31.673403395311237, 62.34438156831043, 0, 0, 0.5901374292643492, 1.438965238480194, 3.953112368633791 ], [ 44.21273445212241, 51.06737413622902, 0, 0, 3.3995557749259624, 1.320335636722606, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 12.078764425233228, "volatility_previous": 15.348749402472789, "volatility_mean": 13.713756913853008 }, { "id": "PY-10-025-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "PRESIDENTE FRANCO / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 1.4951929079785242, 10.779532115400512, 0.5990695303039959 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-025-C-2021-10-10", "PY-10-025-C-2015-11-15", "PY-10-025-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 79.04558833781165, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 38.603446123111496, 37.108253215132976, 1.6200524410038706, 2.4441253589711573, 1.99463104007991, 3.2213759520539393, 15.00811586964665 ], [ 28.77986277589485, 39.55939489129536, 0, 0, 4.120856410680334, 2.8932793254525917, 24.64660659667686 ], [ 37.887961251672934, 38.48703078197693, 0, 0, 9.687081766617807, 4.040532789497164, 9.897393410235168 ] ], "volatility_latest": 14.215857773793022, "volatility_previous": 15.821577295760129, "volatility_mean": 15.018717534776576 }, { "id": "PY-10-027-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN ALBERTO / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 76.76208064019698, 15.153751537515376, 7.624633431085044 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-027-M-2021-10-10", "PY-10-027-M-2015-11-15", "PY-10-027-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 86.3496460449369, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 13.650353955063096 ], [ 55.47355473554735, 40.31980319803198, 0, 0, 0, 0, 4.206642066420664 ], [ 38.8353581901969, 15.710096355257646, 31.210724759111855, 0, 11.52073732718894, 0, 2.7230833682446587 ] ], "volatility_latest": 40.31980319803198, "volatility_previous": 42.731462086300795, "volatility_mean": 41.525632642166386 }, { "id": "PY-10-027-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN ALBERTO / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 61.06249040380777, 16.555097837281153, 25.140146614920223 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-027-C-2021-10-10", "PY-10-027-C-2015-11-15", "PY-10-027-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 73.40703208966681, 0, 0, 0, 0, 7.968678028558268, 18.624289881774914 ], [ 40.37075180226571, 23.815653964984552, 0, 0, 1.0813594232749744, 0, 34.73223480947477 ], [ 37.21431651573954, 10.909874946097457, 8.538163001293661, 5.648986632169039, 8.106942647692971, 0, 29.58171625700733 ] ], "volatility_latest": 41.00495831595938, "volatility_previous": 21.2127328578807, "volatility_mean": 31.10884558692004 }, { "id": "PY-10-029-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN CRISTOBAL / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 32.54189944134078, 3.583061889250814, 20.978172999191592 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-029-M-2021-10-10", "PY-10-029-M-2015-11-15", "PY-10-029-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 58.0481843575419, 25.506284916201118, 0, 16.445530726256983, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 48.20846905537459, 51.79153094462541, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 38.9248181083266, 59.90299110751819, 0, 0, 0.6467259498787389, 0, 0.5254648342764754 ] ], "volatility_latest": 26.28524602842429, "volatility_previous": 9.283650947047997, "volatility_mean": 17.784448487736142 }, { "id": "PY-10-029-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN CRISTOBAL / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 23.83437717466945, 14.94890510948905, 1.1623080116230802 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-029-C-2021-10-10", "PY-10-029-C-2015-11-15", "PY-10-029-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 5.492356805946541, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 45.946416144745996, 22.112038970076547, 0, 17.710508002783577, 4.279749478079332, 0, 9.951287404314543 ], [ 42.54014598540146, 21.751824817518248, 0, 0, 27.59124087591241, 0, 8.116788321167883 ], [ 33.08426733084267, 31.921959319219592, 0, 0, 3.8605230386052303, 0, 31.133250311332503 ] ], "volatility_latest": 23.311491397833073, "volatility_previous": 33.18659649186597, "volatility_mean": 28.24904394484952 }, { "id": "PY-10-031-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SANTA RITA / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 77.10452098111273, 54.842233009708735, 24.862856131658113 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-031-M-2021-10-10", "PY-10-031-M-2015-11-15", "PY-10-031-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 87.41133236475515, 10.306811383642424, 2.281856251602427, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 70.57038834951456, 15.728155339805825, 0, 0, 0, 0, 13.701456310679612 ], [ 61.440453017165105, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 38.559546982834895 ] ], "volatility_latest": 19.12280026684302, "volatility_previous": 24.85809067215528, "volatility_mean": 21.99044546949915 }, { "id": "PY-10-031-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SANTA RITA / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 32.52850435949028, 18.434913468773512, 15.301842057267919 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-031-C-2021-10-10", "PY-10-031-C-2015-11-15", "PY-10-031-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 53.54627766599597, 21.017773306505703, 2.204896042924212, 20.028504359490274, 2.431254191817572, 0, 0.7712944332662642 ], [ 40.56935038876348, 22.134436919989966, 0, 0, 3.4236267870579384, 0, 33.87258590418861 ], [ 36.51285792449389, 21.21101586722597, 0, 0, 12.566113441546598, 0, 29.710012766733538 ] ], "volatility_latest": 35.21032767964698, "volatility_previous": 9.142486654488659, "volatility_mean": 22.17640716706782 }, { "id": "PY-10-033-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SANTA ROSA DEL MONDAY / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 74.3879472693032, 73.09136420525657, 2.4618678084024617 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-033-M-2021-10-10", "PY-10-033-M-2015-11-15", "PY-10-033-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 87.1939736346516, 12.8060263653484, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 85.81560283687944, 12.724238631622862, 0, 0, 1.4601585314977055, 0, 0 ], [ 48.19373829274819, 45.731870484345734, 0, 0, 0, 1.5252876639015254, 4.549103559004549 ] ], "volatility_latest": 1.460158531497703, "volatility_previous": 39.082023075628946, "volatility_mean": 20.271090803563325 }, { "id": "PY-10-033-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SANTA ROSA DEL MONDAY / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 72.47592420006212, 68.25396825396825, 28.36859688195991 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-033-C-2021-10-10", "PY-10-033-C-2015-11-15", "PY-10-033-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 83.06927617272444, 6.337371854613234, 0, 10.593351972662317, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 82.99916457811194, 14.745196324143693, 0, 0, 2.255639097744361, 0, 0 ], [ 42.371937639198215, 11.024498886414253, 0, 5.428730512249444, 5.985523385300668, 4.649220489977728, 30.540089086859687 ] ], "volatility_latest": 10.66346356727482, "volatility_previous": 44.34792437664317, "volatility_mean": 27.505693971958994 }, { "id": "PY-10-035-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YGUAZU / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 79.73881313616286, 36.69846316905141, 2.0299500831946755 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-035-M-2021-10-10", "PY-10-035-M-2015-11-15", "PY-10-035-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 86.8254273093912, 7.086614173228346, 0, 0, 1.2867294027270981, 4.801229114653351, 0 ], [ 68.07101218865925, 31.372549019607842, 0, 0, 0.5564387917329093, 0, 0 ], [ 44.09317803660566, 42.06322795341098, 0, 0, 3.361064891846922, 8.918469217970049, 1.5640599001663893 ] ], "volatility_latest": 24.285934846379494, "volatility_previous": 23.977834152053592, "volatility_mean": 24.131884499216543 }, { "id": "PY-10-035-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YGUAZU / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 74.26207933822147, 37.01719763180152, 14.8336727766463 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-035-C-2021-10-10", "PY-10-035-C-2015-11-15", "PY-10-035-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 82.23350253807106, 7.971423199849596, 0, 0, 1.5792442188381275, 5.527354765933446, 2.6884752773077647 ], [ 53.143501550606146, 16.126303918804624, 0, 0, 2.0298844093600223, 5.948689032985621, 22.751621088243585 ], [ 46.13034623217923, 31.296673455532925, 0, 0, 10.047522063815343, 9.843856076035301, 2.681602172437203 ] ], "volatility_latest": 29.09000098746492, "volatility_previous": 27.0831742342333, "volatility_mean": 28.086587610849108 }, { "id": "PY-11-000-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "AREGUA / CENTRAL", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 16.698231051295483, 11.01227158244467, 5.623721881390593 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-000-M-2021-10-10", "PY-11-000-M-2015-11-15", "PY-11-000-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 30.575038531751254, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 53.21755248418423, 36.519321432888745, 0, 0, 1.7568602167868799, 0, 8.506265866140145 ], [ 54.34328278227319, 43.33101119982852, 0, 0, 2.3257060178982907, 0, 0 ], [ 49.81741162722758, 44.193689745836984, 0, 0, 4.148407829389424, 0, 1.8404907975460123 ] ], "volatility_latest": 8.506265866140144, "volatility_previous": 4.525871155045614, "volatility_mean": 6.516068510592879 }, { "id": "PY-11-000-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "AREGUA / CENTRAL", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 20.195740243070876, 14.772356840160818, 8.78122634367903 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-000-C-2021-10-10", "PY-11-000-C-2015-11-15", "PY-11-000-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 12.86363083870663, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 53.716256868958325, 33.52051662588745, 0, 0, 2.2341662989851994, 2.065701335686495, 8.463358870482532 ], [ 44.91470172769749, 30.142344887536673, 2.9120938824296423, 1.9776159947843095, 1.157231337607302, 7.79093773769423, 11.105074432250353 ], [ 38.8115064345193, 30.03028009084027, 0, 0, 5.844057532172597, 2.1347464042392126, 23.179409538228615 ] ], "volatility_latest": 13.25666184098951, "volatility_previous": 16.76116130054356, "volatility_mean": 15.008911570766536 }, { "id": "PY-11-001-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CAPIATA / CENTRAL", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 45.97560422618238, 14.63642507851946, 9.024573142593447 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-001-M-2021-10-10", "PY-11-001-M-2015-11-15", "PY-11-001-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 71.38257833401352, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 28.617421665986488 ], [ 55.14849123365006, 40.512066155130604, 0, 0, 0, 0, 4.339442611219337 ], [ 50.995039224734654, 41.97046608214121, 0, 0, 4.372404245500692, 0, 2.6620904476234424 ] ], "volatility_latest": 40.512066155130604, "volatility_previous": 5.8308041725113, "volatility_mean": 23.171435163820952 }, { "id": "PY-11-001-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CAPIATA / CENTRAL", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 43.87069306328498, 13.764438943894389, 6.214541328445492 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-001-C-2021-10-10", "PY-11-001-C-2015-11-15", "PY-11-001-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 66.75181704832283, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 33.24818295167716 ], [ 47.978547854785475, 34.21410891089109, 0, 0, 2.242161716171617, 2.1534653465346536, 13.411716171617163 ], [ 46.41412818946205, 40.199586861016556, 0, 1.4110732885281196, 6.15926216868872, 0, 5.81594949230456 ] ], "volatility_latest": 38.60973597359736, "volatility_previous": 11.313651691170685, "volatility_mean": 24.96169383238402 }, { "id": "PY-11-003-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "FERNANDO DE LA MORA / CENTRAL", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 30.269717728919336, 16.182268268084716, 4.221445905224139 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-003-M-2021-10-10", "PY-11-003-M-2015-11-15", "PY-11-003-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 33.4349557046017, 63.70467343352104, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2.8603708618772643 ], [ 41.908865865957644, 58.091134134042356, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 48.571961918984506, 44.35051601376037, 0, 3.6907650870689883, 1.3653697431931517, 1.285367609802928, 0.7360196271900584 ] ], "volatility_latest": 8.473910161355946, "volatility_previous": 13.740618120281988, "volatility_mean": 11.107264140818966 }, { "id": "PY-11-003-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "FERNANDO DE LA MORA / CENTRAL", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 9.767159488607957, 2.1161337912911184, 3.391113875442819 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-003-C-2021-10-10", "PY-11-003-C-2015-11-15", "PY-11-003-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 65.82876390951805, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 37.99907149489322, 47.76623098350118, 0, 0, 0.9856438825798157, 0, 13.249053639025783 ], [ 40.01751919042899, 37.90138539913787, 2.1553214540928054, 4.508886378829441, 5.502408888683986, 0, 9.914478688826906 ], [ 40.693366505313826, 37.302252629871006, 0, 5.573433570404824, 5.586954758105952, 3.2369723356499636, 7.607020200654425 ] ], "volatility_latest": 13.199420534562186, "volatility_previous": 5.061912711532149, "volatility_mean": 9.130666623047167 }, { "id": "PY-11-005-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "GUARAMBARE / CENTRAL", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 27.260937229811518, 38.391699092088196, 6.064618644067797 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-005-M-2021-10-10", "PY-11-005-M-2015-11-15", "PY-11-005-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 63.193844025592256, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 36.80615597440775 ], [ 69.1958495460441, 30.804150453955902, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 39.155190677966104, 25.66207627118644, 0, 0, 2.0921610169491527, 0, 33.090572033898304 ] ], "volatility_latest": 36.80615597440775, "volatility_previous": 35.18273305084746, "volatility_mean": 35.99444451262761 }, { "id": "PY-11-005-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "GUARAMBARE / CENTRAL", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 39.08432488360062, 25.06043513295729, 7.541251875085231 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-005-C-2021-10-10", "PY-11-005-C-2015-11-15", "PY-11-005-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 67.16675288842904, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 32.83324711157096 ], [ 46.038141283910825, 20.977706150953534, 9.427880741337631, 0, 6.137523502551706, 8.16545796400752, 9.253290357238786 ], [ 31.06504841129142, 23.52379653620619, 10.923223782899223, 0, 5.386608482203736, 0, 29.101322787399425 ] ], "volatility_latest": 44.70856835885039, "volatility_previous": 23.88946585697489, "volatility_mean": 34.29901710791264 }, { "id": "PY-11-007-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ITA / CENTRAL", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 1.4090071108770081, 6.381052949162769, 5.258042569734668 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-007-M-2021-10-10", "PY-11-007-M-2015-11-15", "PY-11-007-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 83.5723779587575, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 48.60416117987885, 50.01316829075586, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1.3826705293652883 ], [ 46.60205159149193, 52.9831045406547, 0, 0, 0.4148438678533716, 0, 0 ], [ 46.50597725726504, 51.76401982699971, 0, 0, 0.9719117504130625, 0.699776460297405, 0.05831470502478375 ] ], "volatility_latest": 3.384780117752213, "volatility_previous": 1.3151590478818822, "volatility_mean": 2.3499695828170477 }, { "id": "PY-11-007-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ITA / CENTRAL", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 2.1946937182988684, 4.709752321981425, 3.4195658638120725 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-007-C-2021-10-10", "PY-11-007-C-2015-11-15", "PY-11-007-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 84.64150743022523, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 46.31941734946027, 44.1247236311614, 2.051632201846794, 1.7427493822343607, 0, 0.734815970867473, 5.026661464429704 ], [ 43.126934984520126, 47.836687306501545, 1.4473684210526316, 0, 1.3738390092879258, 3.3707430340557276, 2.8444272445820435 ], [ 44.03310536227575, 47.452671226087816, 0, 0, 2.254931113093468, 2.2648428982059667, 3.9944494003370004 ] ], "volatility_latest": 7.721729747816324, "volatility_previous": 2.9372846373161217, "volatility_mean": 5.329507192566223 }, { "id": "PY-11-009-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ITAUGUA / CENTRAL", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 5.4971183418189336, 11.01463066492209, 36.07446231700705 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-009-M-2021-10-10", "PY-11-009-M-2015-11-15", "PY-11-009-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 48.949467818656544, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 52.748559170909466, 47.251440829090534, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 43.55100907973514, 54.56563974465723, 0, 0, 0, 1.1101859561476548, 0.7731652194599739 ], [ 29.098138442074823, 65.17260075908187, 0, 0, 3.8436050364479786, 0, 1.885655762395325 ] ], "volatility_latest": 9.197550091174328, "volatility_previous": 15.56305659380797, "volatility_mean": 12.38030334249115 }, { "id": "PY-11-009-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ITAUGUA / CENTRAL", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 6.4521922060596735, 12.494436576977543, 20.962009803921568 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-009-C-2021-10-10", "PY-11-009-C-2015-11-15", "PY-11-009-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 51.420763614393884, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 49.05975012186049, 42.60755791580082, 0, 0, 0, 0, 8.332691962338695 ], [ 35.49666194618653, 47.99109852316407, 6.805583653651628, 1.4080517904106817, 2.116123811450536, 4.564029941331175, 1.6184503338053813 ], [ 25.324754901960784, 46.286764705882355, 7.346813725490196, 0, 5.4963235294117645, 0.508578431372549, 15.036764705882353 ] ], "volatility_latest": 20.277329804207273, "volatility_previous": 17.339744161876766, "volatility_mean": 18.808536983042018 }, { "id": "PY-11-011-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "J. AUGUSTO SALDIVAR / CENTRAL", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 30.650199432937672, 21.910654025389682, 33.253467843631775 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-011-M-2021-10-10", "PY-11-011-M-2015-11-15", "PY-11-011-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 22.735354894516796, 53.385554327454464, 0, 0, 0, 0, 23.879090778028736 ], [ 35.714285714285715, 57.6249397396754, 2.0167121966896997, 0, 2.9487385505383257, 1.695323798810863, 0 ], [ 30.56746532156368, 63.82093316519546, 0, 0, 3.4174022698612863, 0, 2.1941992433795714 ] ], "volatility_latest": 23.87909077802874, "volatility_previous": 8.858856388222597, "volatility_mean": 16.36897358312567 }, { "id": "PY-11-011-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "J. AUGUSTO SALDIVAR / CENTRAL", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 32.93488215163638, 25.155505291219, 31.001529051987767 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-011-C-2021-10-10", "PY-11-011-C-2015-11-15", "PY-11-011-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 23.150334988191062, 56.08521713982744, 0, 0, 0, 0, 20.764447871981492 ], [ 28.63720817513531, 53.79271346635431, 5.380079166330075, 0, 4.1037240487923095, 1.8579852976815574, 6.228289845706438 ], [ 28.65698267074414, 59.65851172273191, 0, 0, 4.4469928644240575, 0, 7.237512742099898 ] ], "volatility_latest": 16.82866169974819, "volatility_previous": 7.238064464011635, "volatility_mean": 12.033363081879912 }, { "id": "PY-11-013-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LAMBARE / CENTRAL", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 26.217395786796796, 11.5696085005416, 5.73704004129489 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-013-M-2021-10-10", "PY-11-013-M-2015-11-15", "PY-11-013-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 1.1248798681497751, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 48.46901955393656, 22.251623767139765, 0, 0, 0, 0, 29.279356678923676 ], [ 44.2151957497292, 55.7848042502708, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 50.32077280436546, 44.58373276307057, 0, 2.662045571860482, 2.433448860703488, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 33.533180483131034, "volatility_previous": 11.201071487200233, "volatility_mean": 22.367125985165632 }, { "id": "PY-11-013-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LAMBARE / CENTRAL", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 23.358679047733474, 10.011232464211457, 12.187124549459352 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-013-C-2021-10-10", "PY-11-013-C-2015-11-15", "PY-11-013-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 8.813551885752723, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 48.414891608451626, 25.056212560718148, 1.2993254492713822, 0, 0, 0, 25.229570381558847 ], [ 35.04050856774132, 25.029276103529863, 0.5926917286045456, 7.5329206796835795, 2.4687522405181275, 3.2598045073250006, 26.07604617259757 ], [ 44.39327192631158, 32.20614737685222, 0, 9.353724469363236, 5.794453344012815, 0, 8.252402883460153 ] ], "volatility_latest": 14.107953218565429, "volatility_previous": 21.67613952506696, "volatility_mean": 17.892046371816196 }, { "id": "PY-11-015-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LIMPIO / CENTRAL", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 7.139572593722017, 2.9309439411841933, 12.550907071455017 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-015-M-2021-10-10", "PY-11-015-M-2015-11-15", "PY-11-015-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 67.90941277133015, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 43.377138846535495, 50.51671144025751, 0, 0, 0, 0, 6.106149713206999 ], [ 50.216620716817644, 47.285676775633455, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2.4977025075489037 ], [ 42.5186438885069, 55.069550959961916, 0, 0, 0.7827788649706457, 0, 1.6290262865605332 ] ], "volatility_latest": 6.83948187028215, "volatility_previous": 8.56665304929911, "volatility_mean": 7.7030674597906295 }, { "id": "PY-11-015-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LIMPIO / CENTRAL", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 2.815432742440042, 4.473477205102774, 12.744095970735382 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-015-C-2021-10-10", "PY-11-015-C-2015-11-15", "PY-11-015-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 78.47143797965802, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 41.43608894924461, 44.25152169168465, 0, 0, 0, 1.867255134951621, 12.445134224119117 ], [ 41.71825301822908, 37.2447758131263, 0, 0, 2.7942132083860596, 4.600020520537638, 13.642737439720921 ], [ 36.19882726343536, 48.94292323417075, 0, 0, 4.949163483780731, 6.455430631018344, 3.4536553875948144 ] ], "volatility_latest": 7.0067458785583465, "volatility_previous": 15.708507806919823, "volatility_mean": 11.357626842739084 }, { "id": "PY-11-017-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LUQUE / CENTRAL", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 3.2578054045128035, 0.5279387030461596, 5.703769891924091 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-017-M-2021-10-10", "PY-11-017-M-2015-11-15", "PY-11-017-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 86.5827907859303, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 49.16549698635308, 45.90769158184027, 0, 0, 0, 0, 4.926811431806654 ], [ 45.65346041238398, 45.12552170933782, 0, 1.803401233414315, 3.3124649598205944, 1.325297452189622, 2.779854232853672 ], [ 43.326099906390944, 49.02986979831504, 0, 3.267806995149349, 3.363543528210365, 0.4212407454684708, 0.5914390264658327 ] ], "volatility_latest": 6.441163645424531, "volatility_previous": 5.419832419102026, "volatility_mean": 5.930498032263278 }, { "id": "PY-11-017-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LUQUE / CENTRAL", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 10.127664627991212, 0.03449519419226367, 3.2165508909694958 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-017-C-2021-10-10", "PY-11-017-C-2015-11-15", "PY-11-017-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 67.95698787925322, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 47.357045306098215, 37.229380678107, 0, 0, 0.9726263286028145, 2.155453951665578, 12.285493735526394 ], [ 38.81963717327563, 38.8541323674679, 2.3111780108816657, 2.8662370447026357, 5.724634272543393, 2.93993132320429, 8.484249807924487 ], [ 38.39366613452992, 35.17711524356043, 0, 6.413685981792294, 10.223497432799759, 2.508952841178755, 7.283082366138845 ] ], "volatility_latest": 12.338652060424492, "volatility_previous": 8.046312097346021, "volatility_mean": 10.192482078885256 }, { "id": "PY-11-019-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "MARIANO R. ALONSO / CENTRAL", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 0.29633903283331586, 17.85474359931328, 0.20525451559934318 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-019-M-2021-10-10", "PY-11-019-M-2015-11-15", "PY-11-019-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 72.22624024473046, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 45.27693275988671, 45.57327179272003, 0, 1.4816951641665792, 0, 2.7588377215986575, 4.9092625616280285 ], [ 38.85944614465925, 56.71418974397253, 0, 0, 0, 2.257968201836232, 2.1683959095319847 ], [ 46.479885057471265, 46.27463054187192, 0, 1.1442939244663382, 2.940270935960591, 1.2469211822660098, 1.9139983579638753 ] ], "volatility_latest": 11.140917951252506, "volatility_previous": 11.705003773238943, "volatility_mean": 11.422960862245723 }, { "id": "PY-11-019-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "MARIANO R. ALONSO / CENTRAL", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 2.1293150400705447, 4.115288599742795, 3.9802802283341983 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-019-C-2021-10-10", "PY-11-019-C-2015-11-15", "PY-11-019-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 85.44898186600707, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 42.4254999092253, 40.29618486915476, 2.9385066265528956, 3.3119796664678267, 0, 3.8514407241227273, 7.176388204476489 ], [ 33.82252817913609, 29.7072395793933, 0.4728042968454497, 0.8056585218246464, 2.530448596716847, 6.33936001210379, 26.321960813979878 ], [ 37.62843798650753, 33.648157758173326, 0, 1.909704203425013, 3.404255319148936, 2.158796056045667, 21.25064867669953 ] ], "volatility_latest": 24.163940494201295, "volatility_previous": 9.72468039018392, "volatility_mean": 16.94431044219261 }, { "id": "PY-11-021-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "NUEVA ITALIA / CENTRAL", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 5.1727042965459145, 4.936153992757767, 11.855292104619897 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-021-M-2021-10-10", "PY-11-021-M-2015-11-15", "PY-11-021-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 71.15001006891566, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 52.58635214827296, 47.41364785172704, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 47.53192300362112, 52.46807699637888, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 41.114641896846734, 52.96993400146663, 0, 0, 5.91542410168663, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 5.0544291446518415, "volatility_previous": 6.4172811067743805, "volatility_mean": 5.735855125713111 }, { "id": "PY-11-021-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "NUEVA ITALIA / CENTRAL", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 5.394957983193278, 4.074004858904877, 22.763222936233316 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-021-C-2021-10-10", "PY-11-021-C-2015-11-15", "PY-11-021-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 66.3225072939462, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 51.34453781512605, 45.94957983193277, 2.7058823529411766, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 45.56157727527565, 49.635582134180524, 2.0556905251354887, 0, 0, 0, 2.7471500654083347 ], [ 34.30548690064261, 57.068709836875925, 0, 0, 6.228373702422146, 0, 2.397429560059318 ] ], "volatility_latest": 6.433152367656087, "volatility_previous": 13.661501405117546, "volatility_mean": 10.047326886386816 }, { "id": "PY-11-023-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ÑEMBY / CENTRAL", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 7.676648873608975, 8.438329849144019, 2.3096548945884248 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-023-M-2021-10-10", "PY-11-023-M-2015-11-15", "PY-11-023-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 63.15773115816283, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 51.2982900569981, 43.62164118338912, 0, 0, 1.022346874151814, 0, 4.0577218854609605 ], [ 44.91779196564778, 53.3561218147918, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1.7260862195604272 ], [ 44.505617474598274, 46.815272369186694, 0, 1.329394387001477, 4.238843382122555, 0.765408889485699, 2.3454634976052997 ] ], "volatility_latest": 9.73448063140267, "volatility_previous": 6.953023936654606, "volatility_mean": 8.343752284028639 }, { "id": "PY-11-023-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ÑEMBY / CENTRAL", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 4.377500056498452, 10.264881127957052, 0.6790010936930369 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-023-C-2021-10-10", "PY-11-023-C-2015-11-15", "PY-11-023-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 71.13067759172255, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 44.062012700851994, 39.684512644353546, 0, 0, 1.4666998124251396, 0.9514339307102986, 13.83534091165902 ], [ 29.04253436375435, 39.3074154917114, 2.4187363577370067, 3.055866910506755, 2.9526281635301754, 1.5692289540440092, 21.653589758716294 ], [ 37.04885162231134, 36.3698505286183, 0, 2.1190302588406853, 6.165694495078381, 2.58384979948961, 15.712723295661684 ] ], "volatility_latest": 15.396575489739785, "volatility_previous": 12.234004435550792, "volatility_mean": 13.815289962645288 }, { "id": "PY-11-025-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN ANTONIO / CENTRAL", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 27.9879640692066, 37.801103485399004, 10.465116279069768 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-025-M-2021-10-10", "PY-11-025-M-2015-11-15", "PY-11-025-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 34.324527633966106, 62.312491703172704, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3.3629806628611885 ], [ 31.099448257300498, 68.9005517426995, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 34.61685093404499, 45.08196721311475, 0, 5.77582920320244, 11.456347693480748, 0.8482653450247808, 2.220739611132291 ] ], "volatility_latest": 6.588060039526799, "volatility_previous": 23.818584529584754, "volatility_mean": 15.203322284555776 }, { "id": "PY-11-025-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN ANTONIO / CENTRAL", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 20.125539427226364, 22.810534319485726, 2.4361722861040733 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-025-C-2021-10-10", "PY-11-025-C-2015-11-15", "PY-11-025-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 4.1894940960402804, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 30.90536593871235, 51.030905365938715, 0, 1.6651410139052352, 1.1071880040102873, 1.817706290048385, 13.473693387385032 ], [ 20.82670906200318, 43.63724338148891, 0, 4.1542821593972485, 3.1174396903297157, 3.77410658740582, 24.490219119375126 ], [ 29.477684661859286, 31.91385694796336, 0, 9.471837848372637, 11.274605340089652, 1.6371077762619373, 16.22490742545313 ] ], "volatility_latest": 17.472318861158975, "volatility_previous": 22.125696938591428, "volatility_mean": 19.7990078998752 }, { "id": "PY-11-027-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN LORENZO / CENTRAL", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 15.21362622574978, 8.203581329660175, 20.77927948289111 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-027-M-2021-10-10", "PY-11-027-M-2015-11-15", "PY-11-027-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 31.66410958681485, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 48.37335061116164, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 51.62664938883836 ], [ 41.370111415270344, 33.16653008561017, 0, 0, 0, 2.1045106620403464, 23.35884783707914 ], [ 52.974280160918504, 32.19500067802739, 0, 3.733670840301948, 8.323916286217964, 0.8791755186909551, 1.89395651584324 ] ], "volatility_latest": 35.27104074765052, "volatility_previous": 23.661755872168072, "volatility_mean": 29.466398309909295 }, { "id": "PY-11-027-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN LORENZO / CENTRAL", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 19.85486973247071, 9.797523722177148, 12.58287229664853 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-027-C-2021-10-10", "PY-11-027-C-2015-11-15", "PY-11-027-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 19.447669070997886, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 47.07116628781255, 27.21629655534184, 0, 0, 0, 0, 25.71253715684561 ], [ 38.08070831422625, 28.283184592049103, 3.1852975413594837, 3.4992415958234857, 2.520371088927299, 2.4339482874175458, 21.997248580196832 ], [ 42.773535732248185, 30.190663435599653, 0, 5.921082712267386, 8.662155365552557, 1.9523570024233003, 10.50020575190892 ] ], "volatility_latest": 12.705746550235078, "volatility_previous": 15.163931654641642, "volatility_mean": 13.93483910243836 }, { "id": "PY-11-029-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "VILLA ELISA / CENTRAL", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 47.99222594902981, 7.426869129877115, 0.9539589295576643 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-029-M-2021-10-10", "PY-11-029-M-2015-11-15", "PY-11-029-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 23.485157205103288, 71.4773831541331, 0, 0, 0.7742703990470519, 0.30406570326949, 3.959123538447071 ], [ 43.74198353262444, 51.16885266250155, 0, 0, 1.0136952294261243, 0, 4.075468575447887 ], [ 45.80509112818196, 46.75905005773962, 0, 5.0208364713561275, 1.5966259978912487, 0.24602098709645026, 0.5723753577345986 ] ], "volatility_latest": 20.612596194901037, "volatility_previous": 7.912895822475219, "volatility_mean": 14.26274600868813 }, { "id": "PY-11-029-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "VILLA ELISA / CENTRAL", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 26.92997639653816, 6.03197069353093, 2.8454661558109833 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-029-C-2021-10-10", "PY-11-029-C-2015-11-15", "PY-11-029-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 8.739381692183645, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 29.80330448465775, 56.73328088119591, 0, 0, 1.1770259638080252, 0.3556254917387884, 11.930763178599529 ], [ 37.92773291149779, 43.95970360502872, 1.885771376238448, 2.7225043709932564, 2.197985180251436, 2.077262509366414, 9.229040046623929 ], [ 38.60536398467433, 41.450830140485316, 0, 6.0638569604086845, 3.5351213282247764, 1.1187739463601531, 9.226053639846743 ] ], "volatility_latest": 15.475300408142784, "volatility_previous": 5.3561198105653025, "volatility_mean": 10.415710109354043 }, { "id": "PY-11-031-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "VILLETA / CENTRAL", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 3.7176094048131962, 3.57912294113559, 3.0849358974358974 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-031-M-2021-10-10", "PY-11-031-M-2015-11-15", "PY-11-031-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 81.93601942513908, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 46.605527174247555, 50.32313657906075, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3.071336246691697 ], [ 48.2104385294322, 51.7895614705678, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 47.375801282051285, 50.46073717948718, 0, 0, 0.7411858974358975, 0, 1.422275641025641 ] ], "volatility_latest": 3.071336246691695, "volatility_previous": 2.1634615384615357, "volatility_mean": 2.6173988925766154 }, { "id": "PY-11-031-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "VILLETA / CENTRAL", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 5.533405823365954, 7.027775752715608, 4.85655737704918 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-031-C-2021-10-10", "PY-11-031-C-2015-11-15", "PY-11-031-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 70.42984021230414, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 43.41548870363658, 37.88208288027063, 0, 3.660746647335991, 1.8182916515645766, 2.941887157182554, 10.281502960009666 ], [ 37.18743165415178, 30.159655901436174, 3.572209666836772, 0, 1.217467376248451, 3.0618940001458044, 24.80134140118102 ], [ 41.10655737704918, 36.25, 0, 0, 3.944672131147541, 0, 18.69877049180328 ] ], "volatility_latest": 18.212054950971375, "volatility_previous": 12.736674576360315, "volatility_mean": 15.474364763665845 }, { "id": "PY-11-033-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YPACARAI / CENTRAL", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 24.983538707553382, 12.066905615292711, 9.751552795031056 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-033-M-2021-10-10", "PY-11-033-M-2015-11-15", "PY-11-033-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 2.0732490568852624, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 34.45583670397893, 59.43937541153231, 0, 6.1047878844887595, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 43.966547192353644, 56.033452807646356, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 44.298136645962735, 54.04968944099379, 0, 0, 1.6521739130434783, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 9.510710488374713, "volatility_previous": 1.9837633666525685, "volatility_mean": 5.74723692751364 }, { "id": "PY-11-033-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YPACARAI / CENTRAL", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 3.940520446096654, 3.4620098039215685, 2.947501581277672 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-033-C-2021-10-10", "PY-11-033-C-2015-11-15", "PY-11-033-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 81.51167316518885, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 42.58364312267658, 46.52416356877323, 0, 6.0130111524163565, 1.7472118959107807, 3.1319702602230484, 0 ], [ 43.66830065359477, 40.2062908496732, 0, 7.506127450980392, 2.5531045751633985, 6.0661764705882355, 0 ], [ 41.808981657179004, 44.756483238456674, 0, 8.652751423149905, 4.781783681214422, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 6.317872719100032, "volatility_previous": 7.925495467004005, "volatility_mean": 7.121684093052019 }, { "id": "PY-11-035-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YPANE / CENTRAL", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 5.795589988081049, 12.041058033951836, 2.966292134831461 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-035-M-2021-10-10", "PY-11-035-M-2015-11-15", "PY-11-035-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 63.06849691741336, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 45.35160905840286, 51.14719904648391, 0, 0, 0, 2.0560190703218115, 1.4451728247914184 ], [ 41.16989077510199, 53.210948809053825, 0, 0, 2.5134886169232793, 3.105671798920911, 0 ], [ 45.04494382022472, 48.01123595505618, 0, 0, 2.606741573033708, 1.202247191011236, 3.1348314606741576 ] ], "volatility_latest": 5.6268911080922885, "volatility_previous": 7.103137461907316, "volatility_mean": 6.365014284999802 }, { "id": "PY-11-035-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YPANE / CENTRAL", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 1.3571286538079141, 5.380744716538074, 13.405099150141643 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-11-035-C-2021-10-10", "PY-11-035-C-2015-11-15", "PY-11-035-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 81.15494738869833, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 46.997414993040366, 45.64028633923245, 0, 1.4814078345595545, 0, 2.8932193278981906, 2.987671505269437 ], [ 39.1009728279101, 44.48171754444817, 1.529688024152969, 0, 3.508889634350889, 3.9584032203958404, 7.420328748742033 ], [ 42.70821529745042, 29.30311614730878, 0, 0, 4.827195467422096, 2.9121813031161476, 20.24929178470255 ] ], "volatility_latest": 10.536418794474102, "volatility_previous": 17.75451133857205, "volatility_mean": 14.145465066523077 }, { "id": "PY-12-001-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ALBERDI / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 14.01656314699793, 72.76378240233662, 13.251605370694687 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-001-M-2021-10-10", "PY-12-001-M-2015-11-15", "PY-12-001-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 56.60455486542443, 42.5879917184265, 0, 0.8074534161490683, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 86.38189120116832, 0, 0, 0, 13.61810879883169, 0, 0 ], [ 52.159953298307066, 0, 6.888499708114419, 0, 2.0431990659661414, 0, 38.908347927612375 ] ], "volatility_latest": 43.395445134575574, "volatility_previous": 45.7968476357268, "volatility_mean": 44.59614638515119 }, { "id": "PY-12-001-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ALBERDI / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 51.06073211314476, 52.85252960172228, 15.738284703801945 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-001-C-2021-10-10", "PY-12-001-C-2015-11-15", "PY-12-001-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 74.39683860232945, 23.336106489184694, 0, 2.267054908485857, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 73.12522425547184, 0, 0, 0, 6.602081090778615, 20.27269465374955, 0 ], [ 44.26760978485117, 0, 22.546419098143236, 0, 2.7114647804302976, 0, 30.474506336575303 ] ], "volatility_latest": 26.874775744528165, "volatility_previous": 53.020925434718535, "volatility_mean": 39.94785058962335 }, { "id": "PY-12-003-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CERRITO / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 8.153781157583438, 5.1745898190997055, 6.102635228848821 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-003-M-2021-10-10", "PY-12-003-M-2015-11-15", "PY-12-003-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 64.72545418417572, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 54.07689057879172, 0, 45.92310942120828, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 52.587294909549854, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 47.412705090450146 ], [ 52.843273231622746, 0, 0, 0, 0.4160887656033287, 0, 46.74063800277393 ] ], "volatility_latest": 47.412705090450146, "volatility_previous": 0.6720670876762195, "volatility_mean": 24.042386089063182 }, { "id": "PY-12-003-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CERRITO / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 37.231804795961295, 17.75121735281098, 6.816059757236228 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-003-C-2021-10-10", "PY-12-003-C-2015-11-15", "PY-12-003-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 56.83634833824148, 19.604543542280187, 0, 0, 6.142196045435423, 17.416912074042912, 0 ], [ 53.60779105799026, 0, 0, 0, 10.535635236830457, 0, 35.85657370517928 ], [ 51.12044817927171, 0, 0, 0, 4.57516339869281, 0, 44.30438842203548 ] ], "volatility_latest": 40.25001289657431, "volatility_previous": 8.447814716856199, "volatility_mean": 24.348913806715256 }, { "id": "PY-12-005-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "DESMOCHADOS / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 83.25892857142857, null, 50.45766590389016 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-005-M-2021-10-10", "PY-12-005-M-2015-11-15", "PY-12-005-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 91.62946428571429, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 8.370535714285714 ], [ 100.0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 74.37070938215103, 23.91304347826087, 0, 0, 1.7162471395881007, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 8.370535714285712, "volatility_previous": 25.62929061784897, "volatility_mean": 16.99991316606734 }, { "id": "PY-12-005-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "DESMOCHADOS / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 85.49107142857143, 84.73625140291807, 34.83796296296296 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-005-C-2021-10-10", "PY-12-005-C-2015-11-15", "PY-12-005-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 92.74553571428571, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 7.254464285714286 ], [ 92.36812570145904, 7.631874298540965, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 66.08796296296296, 31.25, 0, 0, 2.662037037037037, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 7.6318742985409616, "volatility_previous": 26.280162738496074, "volatility_mean": 16.95601851851852 }, { "id": "PY-12-007-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "GRAL. JOSE E. DIAZ / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 48.735955056179776, 17.92600312662845, 4.299889746416759 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-007-M-2021-10-10", "PY-12-007-M-2015-11-15", "PY-12-007-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 73.17415730337079, 2.3876404494382024, 0, 24.43820224719101, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 56.644085461177696, 0, 0, 4.637832204273059, 0, 0, 38.718082334549244 ], [ 49.22822491730981, 0.2756339581036384, 44.92833517089306, 0, 0.4961411245865491, 0, 5.071664829106946 ] ], "volatility_latest": 38.718082334549244, "volatility_previous": 45.70011025358325, "volatility_mean": 42.20909629406624 }, { "id": "PY-12-007-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "GRAL. JOSE E. DIAZ / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 68.86836027713626, 27.792624265098876, 15.490628445424477 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-007-C-2021-10-10", "PY-12-007-C-2015-11-15", "PY-12-007-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 80.41570438799076, 5.958429561200924, 0, 11.547344110854503, 2.0785219399538106, 0, 0 ], [ 55.05077498663816, 0, 0, 17.21004810261892, 0, 0, 27.73917691074292 ], [ 49.66923925027563, 2.37045203969129, 34.17861080485116, 0, 8.654906284454245, 0, 5.126791620727674 ] ], "volatility_latest": 33.40188090250734, "volatility_previous": 45.2039691289967, "volatility_mean": 39.30292501575202 }, { "id": "PY-12-009-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "GUAZU CUA / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 0.2628120893561104, null, 12.456747404844291 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-009-M-2021-10-10", "PY-12-009-M-2015-11-15", "PY-12-009-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 49.86859395532194, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 50.13140604467806 ], [ 100.0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 53.17185697808535, 40.71510957324106, 0, 0, 6.113033448673587, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 50.13140604467806, "volatility_previous": 46.82814302191465, "volatility_mean": 48.47977453329635 }, { "id": "PY-12-009-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "GUAZU CUA / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 29.044834307992204, 28.657799274486095, 17.28855721393035 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-009-C-2021-10-10", "PY-12-009-C-2015-11-15", "PY-12-009-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 64.5224171539961, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 35.4775828460039 ], [ 64.32889963724304, 35.67110036275695, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 51.243781094527364, 33.95522388059702, 0, 0, 14.800995024875622, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 35.67110036275696, "volatility_previous": 14.800995024875617, "volatility_mean": 25.23604769381629 }, { "id": "PY-12-011-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "HUMAITA / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 9.1015854374633, 6.994328922495274, 11.010452961672474 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-011-M-2021-10-10", "PY-12-011-M-2015-11-15", "PY-12-011-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 56.69852382303095, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 35.64298297122725, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 64.35701702877276 ], [ 53.497164461247635, 46.502835538752365, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 44.181184668989545, 55.19163763066202, 0, 0, 0.627177700348432, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 64.35701702877276, "volatility_previous": 9.31597979225809, "volatility_mean": 36.836498410515425 }, { "id": "PY-12-011-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "HUMAITA / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 4.448398576512456, 15.98705501618123, 21.265636497424577 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-011-C-2021-10-10", "PY-12-011-C-2015-11-15", "PY-12-011-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 52.0414034974785, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 42.11150652431791, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 57.88849347568209 ], [ 57.993527508090615, 42.006472491909385, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 48.05003679175864, 26.78440029433407, 23.10522442972774, 0, 2.060338484179544, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 57.88849347568209, "volatility_previous": 25.165562913907287, "volatility_mean": 41.52702819479469 }, { "id": "PY-12-013-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ISLA UMBU / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 22.001888574126536, 29.983965793693212, 0.5461165048543689 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-013-M-2021-10-10", "PY-12-013-M-2015-11-15", "PY-12-013-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 38.99905571293673, 61.00094428706327, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 35.00801710315339, 64.99198289684661, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 50.0, 49.45388349514563, 0, 0, 0.5461165048543689, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 3.991038609783338, "volatility_previous": 15.538099401700975, "volatility_mean": 9.764569005742157 }, { "id": "PY-12-013-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ISLA UMBU / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 20.417853751187085, 23.799244468429574, 36.90176322418136 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-013-C-2021-10-10", "PY-12-013-C-2015-11-15", "PY-12-013-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 39.79107312440646, 60.20892687559354, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 38.10037776578521, 61.89962223421479, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 67.06549118387909, 30.163727959697734, 0, 0, 2.770780856423174, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 1.690695358621248, "volatility_previous": 31.735894274517054, "volatility_mean": 16.713294816569153 }, { "id": "PY-12-015-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LAURELES / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 3.868574456809751, 8.85264997087944, 14.603798297314997 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-015-M-2021-10-10", "PY-12-015-M-2015-11-15", "PY-12-015-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 67.8134025245941, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 48.06571277159512, 51.93428722840488, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 54.04775771694816, 45.19510774606872, 0, 0.6406523005241701, 0.11648223645894001, 0, 0 ], [ 57.3018991486575, 0, 0, 0, 42.6981008513425, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 6.7391794823361515, "volatility_previous": 45.835760046592895, "volatility_mean": 26.287469764464525 }, { "id": "PY-12-015-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LAURELES / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 26.271186440677965, 11.590774689532822, 15.23545706371191 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-015-C-2021-10-10", "PY-12-015-C-2015-11-15", "PY-12-015-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 63.13559322033898, 36.86440677966102, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 51.4488468361916, 39.858072146658785, 0, 3.3707865168539324, 5.322294500295683, 0, 0 ], [ 17.31301939058172, 23.407202216066484, 0, 20.63711911357341, 38.64265927977839, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 11.686746384147384, "volatility_previous": 50.58669737620218, "volatility_mean": 31.136721880174782 }, { "id": "PY-12-017-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "MAYOR J. MARTINEZ / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 16.81260945709282, 10.04263382283278, 6.670061099796334 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-017-M-2021-10-10", "PY-12-017-M-2015-11-15", "PY-12-017-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 31.16319034457421, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 58.40630472854641, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 41.59369527145359 ], [ 44.95499763145429, 19.99052581714827, 0, 34.91236380862151, 0, 0.14211274277593558, 0 ], [ 51.83299389002037, 1.8839103869653768, 0, 45.16293279022403, 1.120162932790224, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 55.04500236854571, "volatility_previous": 18.24872817295883, "volatility_mean": 36.64686527075227 }, { "id": "PY-12-017-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "MAYOR J. MARTINEZ / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 48.82301656495205, 7.940327237728585, 2.568218298555377 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-017-C-2021-10-10", "PY-12-017-C-2015-11-15", "PY-12-017-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 65.91107236268526, 17.08805579773322, 0, 14.777680906713165, 0, 2.223190932868352, 0 ], [ 41.33782483156882, 11.934552454282965, 0, 33.39749759384023, 0, 13.330125120307988, 0 ], [ 35.95505617977528, 12.092027822364901, 0, 38.523274478330656, 2.086677367576244, 11.342964151952916, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 29.726750874566697, "volatility_previous": 7.369929620148607, "volatility_mean": 18.54834024735765 }, { "id": "PY-12-019-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "PASO DE PATRIA / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 25.726141078838175, 6.019766397124887, 17.890382626680456 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-019-M-2021-10-10", "PY-12-019-M-2015-11-15", "PY-12-019-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 4.8467358544579175, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 34.356846473029044, 0, 5.560165975103734, 0, 0, 0, 60.08298755186722 ], [ 53.00988319856244, 46.99011680143756, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 58.42812823164426, 0, 40.5377456049638, 0, 1.0341261633919339, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 65.64315352697095, "volatility_previous": 46.99011680143756, "volatility_mean": 56.31663516420426 }, { "id": "PY-12-019-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "PASO DE PATRIA / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 19.583333333333332, 24.003707136237256, 18.617021276595743 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-019-C-2021-10-10", "PY-12-019-C-2015-11-15", "PY-12-019-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 35.583333333333336, 0, 9.25, 0, 0, 0, 55.166666666666664 ], [ 59.68489341983318, 35.68118628359592, 0, 0, 4.633920296570899, 0, 0 ], [ 54.46808510638298, 35.851063829787236, 0, 0, 9.680851063829786, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 64.41666666666666, "volatility_previous": 5.216808313450202, "volatility_mean": 34.81673749005843 }, { "id": "PY-12-000-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "PILAR / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 8.424355101092262, 1.3537675606641124, 7.031498568246898 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-000-M-2021-10-10", "PY-12-000-M-2015-11-15", "PY-12-000-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 69.18053407160359, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 54.21217755054613, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 45.78782244945387 ], [ 48.83780332056194, 47.48403575989783, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3.67816091954023 ], [ 51.861279032771236, 44.82978046452434, 0, 0, 1.3203945275214763, 0, 1.9885459751829462 ] ], "volatility_latest": 47.48403575989783, "volatility_previous": 4.343870239730773, "volatility_mean": 25.9139529998143 }, { "id": "PY-12-000-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "PILAR / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 21.470588235294116, 13.177315338075926, 13.50591348937226 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-000-C-2021-10-10", "PY-12-000-C-2015-11-15", "PY-12-000-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 9.06930554231764, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 54.8961937716263, 33.42560553633218, 0, 1.5282583621683967, 1.1361014994232987, 2.4740484429065743, 6.539792387543253 ], [ 44.53826208363805, 31.36094674556213, 4.973073598829865, 2.6926401170134966, 5.312146798750083, 4.241739246060767, 6.881191410145602 ], [ 39.277148292118106, 25.771234802745845, 0, 6.897692498552643, 3.084939210983376, 0, 24.968985195600034 ] ], "volatility_latest": 12.422590478758293, "volatility_previous": 22.292846166993574, "volatility_mean": 17.357718322875932 }, { "id": "PY-12-021-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN JUAN BAUTISTA / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 11.874533233756535, 4.229249011857707, 16.764418377321604 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-021-M-2021-10-10", "PY-12-021-M-2015-11-15", "PY-12-021-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 49.65031759228303, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 55.93726661687827, 44.06273338312173, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 45.73122529644269, 49.9604743083004, 4.308300395256917, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 41.44672531769306, 58.21114369501466, 0, 0, 0.3421309872922776, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 10.206041320435583, "volatility_previous": 8.592800374006544, "volatility_mean": 9.399420847221062 }, { "id": "PY-12-021-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN JUAN BAUTISTA / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 0.3354453969437197, 3.5355564483728403, 19.005847953216374 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-021-C-2021-10-10", "PY-12-021-C-2015-11-15", "PY-12-021-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 84.18740516000139, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 50.16772269847186, 49.83227730152814, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 45.80152671755725, 49.33708316593009, 4.861390116512656, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 39.23001949317739, 58.23586744639376, 0, 0, 2.53411306042885, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 4.861390116512657, "volatility_previous": 11.432897340892522, "volatility_mean": 8.14714372870259 }, { "id": "PY-12-023-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "TACUARAS / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 2.2888283378746594, 48.2444733420026, 1.1922503725782414 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-023-M-2021-10-10", "PY-12-023-M-2015-11-15", "PY-12-023-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 20.170679787083014, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 48.228882833787466, 50.51771117166213, 0, 1.2534059945504088, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 74.1222366710013, 0, 0, 0, 25.8777633289987, 0, 0 ], [ 48.58420268256334, 49.77645305514158, 0, 0, 1.639344262295082, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 51.771117166212534, "volatility_previous": 49.77645305514158, "volatility_mean": 50.77378511067705 }, { "id": "PY-12-023-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "TACUARAS / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 5.129589632829374, 35.383597883597886, 2.6964560862865947 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-023-C-2021-10-10", "PY-12-023-C-2015-11-15", "PY-12-023-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 30.187606232971753, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 51.67386609071274, 46.54427645788337, 0, 0, 0, 1.7818574514038876, 0 ], [ 55.886243386243386, 20.502645502645503, 0, 0, 11.772486772486772, 11.838624338624339, 0 ], [ 45.685670261941446, 42.98921417565485, 0, 0, 4.545454545454546, 6.779661016949152, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 26.041630955237867, "volatility_previous": 22.48656867300935, "volatility_mean": 24.26409981412361 }, { "id": "PY-12-025-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "VILLA FRANCA / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ null, 29.430379746835442, 9.89010989010989 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-025-M-2021-10-10", "PY-12-025-M-2015-11-15", "PY-12-025-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 100.0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 64.71518987341773, 35.28481012658228, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 54.94505494505494, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 45.05494505494506 ] ], "volatility_latest": 35.28481012658227, "volatility_previous": 45.054945054945065, "volatility_mean": 40.16987759076367 }, { "id": "PY-12-025-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "VILLA FRANCA / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 69.62616822429906, 37.62057877813505, 23.529411764705884 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-025-C-2021-10-10", "PY-12-025-C-2015-11-15", "PY-12-025-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 84.81308411214954, 15.186915887850468, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 66.72025723472669, 29.09967845659164, 0, 0, 4.180064308681672, 0, 0 ], [ 47.05882352941177, 15.739268680445152, 0, 0, 13.672496025437201, 0, 23.529411764705884 ] ], "volatility_latest": 18.092826877422848, "volatility_previous": 33.02184348146141, "volatility_mean": 25.557335179442127 }, { "id": "PY-12-027-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "VILLA OLIVA / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 40.372133275638255, 2.6999490575649516, 11.138014527845037 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-027-M-2021-10-10", "PY-12-027-M-2015-11-15", "PY-12-027-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 70.18606663781912, 29.813933362180872, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 51.349974528782475, 48.650025471217525, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 44.12832929782083, 55.26634382566586, 0, 0, 0.6053268765133172, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 18.83609210903665, "volatility_previous": 7.221645230961649, "volatility_mean": 13.028868669999149 }, { "id": "PY-12-027-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "VILLA OLIVA / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 37.48384317104696, 3.156233561283535, 10.012285012285012 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-027-C-2021-10-10", "PY-12-027-C-2015-11-15", "PY-12-027-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 67.72942697113314, 30.24558380008617, 0, 0, 2.024989228780698, 0, 0 ], [ 47.922146238821675, 44.76591267753814, 0, 0, 7.311941083640189, 0, 0 ], [ 42.874692874692876, 52.88697788697789, 0, 0, 4.238329238329238, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 19.80728073231146, "volatility_previous": 8.121065209439749, "volatility_mean": 13.964172970875605 }, { "id": "PY-12-029-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "VILLALBIN / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 34.17890520694259, 34.24, 9.763033175355451 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-029-M-2021-10-10", "PY-12-029-M-2015-11-15", "PY-12-029-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 67.0894526034713, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 32.910547396528706 ], [ 67.12, 32.88, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 53.93364928909953, 44.170616113744074, 0, 0, 1.8957345971563981, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 32.910547396528706, "volatility_previous": 13.186350710900474, "volatility_mean": 23.04844905371459 }, { "id": "PY-12-029-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "VILLALBIN / ÑEEMBUCU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 67.28971962616822, 20.521446593776282, 29.365853658536587 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-12-029-C-2021-10-10", "PY-12-029-C-2015-11-15", "PY-12-029-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 83.64485981308411, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 16.35514018691589 ], [ 55.172413793103445, 34.65096719932716, 0, 0, 10.176619007569386, 0, 0 ], [ 61.073170731707314, 31.70731707317073, 0, 0, 7.219512195121951, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 44.827586206896555, "volatility_previous": 5.900756938603868, "volatility_mean": 25.364171572750212 }, { "id": "PY-13-001-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "BELLA VISTA / AMAMBAY", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 20.493879273955255, 8.133971291866029, 18.797195253505933 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-13-001-M-2021-10-10", "PY-13-001-M-2015-11-15", "PY-13-001-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 16.91880761358222, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 58.90671169269734, 38.412832418742084, 2.6804558885605743, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 54.066985645933016, 45.933014354066984, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 58.87270765911543, 40.075512405609494, 0, 0, 1.051779935275081, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 7.5201819353249, "volatility_previous": 5.85750194845749, "volatility_mean": 6.688841941891195 }, { "id": "PY-13-001-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "BELLA VISTA / AMAMBAY", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 24.553665196387314, 20.951947164654975, 17.259299781181618 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-13-001-C-2021-10-10", "PY-13-001-C-2015-11-15", "PY-13-001-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 58.09703843730309, 33.54337324091578, 2.184415038857383, 0, 0, 0, 6.175173282923756 ], [ 49.760874516055566, 28.80892735140059, 0, 0, 0, 0, 21.43019813254384 ], [ 54.48577680525164, 37.22647702407002, 0, 3.911378555798687, 4.3763676148796495, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 15.25502484962009, "volatility_previous": 21.43019813254384, "volatility_mean": 18.342611491081964 }, { "id": "PY-13-003-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CAPITAN BADO / AMAMBAY", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 10.02828187603111, 16.7966573816156, 2.418336040425916 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-13-003-M-2021-10-10", "PY-13-003-M-2015-11-15", "PY-13-003-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 43.511000279270306, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 53.24063162856469, 43.212349752533584, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3.5470186189017205 ], [ 58.3983286908078, 41.6016713091922, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 43.87294712145822, 41.454611081032304, 0, 0, 14.672441797509475, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 5.157697062243107, "volatility_previous": 14.672441797509476, "volatility_mean": 9.915069429876292 }, { "id": "PY-13-003-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CAPITAN BADO / AMAMBAY", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 19.79130026966819, 22.999856877057393, 6.693563176233266 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-13-003-C-2021-10-10", "PY-13-003-C-2015-11-15", "PY-13-003-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 2.7795322872927075, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 54.49642396529487, 34.70512369562668, 2.6966819087818035, 0, 0, 0, 8.101770430296634 ], [ 55.58895090883068, 32.58909403177329, 4.350937455274081, 0, 7.471017604121941, 0, 0 ], [ 43.16889785439208, 36.47533467815881, 7.005318173482487, 0, 13.350449293966625, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 10.217800094150025, "volatility_previous": 12.420053054438606, "volatility_mean": 11.318926574294316 }, { "id": "PY-13-000-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "PEDRO J. CABALLERO / AMAMBAY", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 19.57413994676749, 20.836473247927657, 9.122716081378774 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-13-000-M-2021-10-10", "PY-13-000-M-2015-11-15", "PY-13-000-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 5.46151224711664, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 38.62839232854904, 58.202532275316536, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3.1690753961344242 ], [ 38.806653030466144, 59.6431262783938, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1.5502206911400582 ], [ 43.29834564381668, 52.42106172519546, 0, 0, 4.280592630987862, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 1.6188547049943676, "volatility_previous": 8.7722852443384, "volatility_mean": 5.195569974666384 }, { "id": "PY-13-000-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "PEDRO J. CABALLERO / AMAMBAY", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 11.025678578402657, 17.440136830102624, 6.885530341080316 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-13-000-C-2021-10-10", "PY-13-000-C-2015-11-15", "PY-13-000-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 37.31999384909794, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 34.98828353837141, 46.01396211677407, 2.3994337043546183, 1.0813317711384496, 1.1545596563171256, 0.3222026947861746, 14.040226518258155 ], [ 29.712086659064994, 47.15222348916762, 2.813568985176739, 0, 1.2143671607753705, 0, 19.10775370581528 ], [ 32.3455549974887, 39.23108533856902, 0, 0, 11.693529975800192, 0, 16.729829688142093 ] ], "volatility_latest": 6.679731345231042, "volatility_previous": 13.112631153448527, "volatility_mean": 9.896181249339785 }, { "id": "PY-14-001-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CORPUS CHRISTI / CANINDEYU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 47.61357101782634, 21.489579774513153, 17.475192943770672 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-001-M-2021-10-10", "PY-14-001-M-2015-11-15", "PY-14-001-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 73.80678550891317, 26.19321449108683, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 60.74478988725658, 39.25521011274342, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 47.05990444689452, 29.584711503123852, 0, 0, 1.543550165380375, 0, 21.81183388460125 ] ], "volatility_latest": 13.061995621656587, "volatility_previous": 23.355384049981627, "volatility_mean": 18.208689835819108 }, { "id": "PY-14-001-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CORPUS CHRISTI / CANINDEYU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 45.451977401129945, 35.83394027676621, 23.268172328715128 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-001-C-2021-10-10", "PY-14-001-C-2015-11-15", "PY-14-001-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 66.44067796610169, 20.98870056497175, 0, 2.3728813559322033, 0, 0, 10.19774011299435 ], [ 56.40932265112892, 20.57538237436271, 0, 0, 3.4959941733430444, 0, 19.51930080116533 ], [ 47.14367052571645, 23.875498197001328, 0, 0, 3.9855760106282028, 0, 24.995255266654013 ] ], "volatility_latest": 12.817554861514019, "volatility_previous": 9.265652125412462, "volatility_mean": 11.04160349346324 }, { "id": "PY-14-005-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ITANARA / CANINDEYU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 0.28368794326241137, 14.488348530901723, 26.629680998613036 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-005-M-2021-10-10", "PY-14-005-M-2015-11-15", "PY-14-005-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 64.10157287455367, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 49.858156028368796, 50.141843971631204, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 57.24417426545086, 42.75582573454914, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 36.615811373092924, 0, 0, 0, 0.13869625520110956, 0, 63.245492371705964 ] ], "volatility_latest": 7.386018237082062, "volatility_previous": 63.384188626907076, "volatility_mean": 35.385103431994565 }, { "id": "PY-14-005-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ITANARA / CANINDEYU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 48.48270995059986, 31.243243243243242, 10.679611650485437 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-005-C-2021-10-10", "PY-14-005-C-2015-11-15", "PY-14-005-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 74.24135497529993, 25.75864502470007, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 59.24324324324324, 28.0, 0, 0, 12.756756756756756, 0, 0 ], [ 38.69625520110957, 49.375866851595006, 0, 0, 11.927877947295423, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 14.998111732056685, "volatility_previous": 21.375866851595006, "volatility_mean": 18.186989291825846 }, { "id": "PY-14-007-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "KATUETE / CANINDEYU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 6.907308377896613, 26.19179600886918, 20.19475021168501 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-007-M-2021-10-10", "PY-14-007-M-2015-11-15", "PY-14-007-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 29.89300574716388, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 37.121212121212125, 0, 0, 0, 44.02852049910874, 0, 18.850267379679146 ], [ 33.647450110864746, 6.513303769401331, 0, 0, 59.83924611973392, 0, 0 ], [ 28.619813717188823, 9.144792548687553, 0, 0, 48.81456392887384, 0, 13.420829805249788 ] ], "volatility_latest": 22.32402939002652, "volatility_previous": 16.05231858453601, "volatility_mean": 19.188173987281267 }, { "id": "PY-14-007-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "KATUETE / CANINDEYU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 3.9733629300776916, 14.515673538548432, 18.834275772074815 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-007-C-2021-10-10", "PY-14-007-C-2015-11-15", "PY-14-007-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 56.88926301590686, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 34.827968923418425, 7.436182019977802, 0, 0, 38.801331853496116, 0, 18.934517203107657 ], [ 23.270262637672975, 4.405535159559446, 3.9254447896074556, 8.189776899181023, 37.785936176221405, 0.9601807399039819, 21.462863597853712 ], [ 22.40104393214441, 10.526315789473685, 0, 7.090039147455415, 41.23531970421923, 0, 18.747281426707264 ] ], "volatility_latest": 15.603748823438517, "volatility_previous": 9.57016415791206, "volatility_mean": 12.586956490675288 }, { "id": "PY-14-009-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LA PALOMA / CANINDEYU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 90.07129654079746, 69.4167852062589, 70.9090909090909 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-009-M-2021-10-10", "PY-14-009-M-2015-11-15", "PY-14-009-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 95.03564827039874, 4.964351729601267, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 84.70839260312944, 15.291607396870555, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 84.79797979797979, 13.88888888888889, 0, 0, 1.3131313131313131, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 10.327255667269293, "volatility_previous": 1.4027185079816658, "volatility_mean": 5.8649870876254795 }, { "id": "PY-14-009-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LA PALOMA / CANINDEYU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 88.6046511627907, 47.58948137326516, 66.54876200101062 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-009-C-2021-10-10", "PY-14-009-C-2015-11-15", "PY-14-009-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 92.81653746770026, 4.2118863049095605, 0, 0, 2.9715762273901807, 0, 0 ], [ 69.83199415631849, 22.242512783053325, 0, 0, 7.925493060628196, 0, 0 ], [ 78.92875189489641, 12.379989893885801, 0, 0, 7.88276907529055, 0, 0.8084891359272359 ] ], "volatility_latest": 22.984543311381778, "volatility_previous": 9.905246874505163, "volatility_mean": 16.44489509294347 }, { "id": "PY-14-003-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "FRANCISCO CABALLERO ALVAREZ / CANINDEYU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 23.266045548654244, 22.038892162639954, 14.98457470251212 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-003-M-2021-10-10", "PY-14-003-M-2015-11-15", "PY-14-003-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 35.196687370600415, 3.6490683229813663, 0, 0, 58.462732919254655, 0, 2.691511387163561 ], [ 61.01944608131998, 38.98055391868002, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 53.195240193918025, 38.210665491405905, 0, 0, 8.594094314676068, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 61.15424430641822, "volatility_previous": 8.59409431467607, "volatility_mean": 34.874169310547146 }, { "id": "PY-14-003-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "FRANCISCO CABALLERO ALVAREZ / CANINDEYU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 43.278517358392065, 21.49951938481256, 13.891402714932127 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-003-C-2021-10-10", "PY-14-003-C-2015-11-15", "PY-14-003-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 57.374053771861135, 11.485251892456278, 0, 7.517619420516836, 14.095536413469068, 0, 9.527538501696686 ], [ 46.17109900672861, 24.671579621916052, 0, 0, 22.42870874719641, 0, 6.728612624158924 ], [ 48.64253393665158, 34.751131221719454, 0, 0, 16.60633484162896, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 21.51950006318712, "volatility_previous": 12.550986529726373, "volatility_mean": 17.03524329645675 }, { "id": "PY-14-000-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SALTO DEL GUAIRA / CANINDEYU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 21.243164137718555, 3.9585753000387145, 14.682249817384953 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-000-M-2021-10-10", "PY-14-000-M-2015-11-15", "PY-14-000-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 22.99151972809379, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 54.2555649695756, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1.6097974274050681, 44.134637603019335 ], [ 47.46418892760356, 0, 0, 0, 0.5710414246999613, 0, 51.96476964769648 ], [ 57.34112490869248, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 42.65887509130752 ] ], "volatility_latest": 8.401173469377108, "volatility_previous": 9.876935981088918, "volatility_mean": 9.139054725233013 }, { "id": "PY-14-000-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SALTO DEL GUAIRA / CANINDEYU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 36.7030265785835, 22.975156534033527, 32.20469411312043 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-000-C-2021-10-10", "PY-14-000-C-2015-11-15", "PY-14-000-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 47.03487478875403, 8.073436779843293, 1.7667844522968197, 0, 2.0970963281610078, 0, 41.027807650944844 ], [ 35.952332862048074, 12.977176328014542, 0, 0, 3.3629569783882043, 4.494041607756009, 43.213492223793175 ], [ 53.63601385148134, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 46.36398614851866 ] ], "volatility_latest": 12.84932637900278, "volatility_previous": 20.834174914158755, "volatility_mean": 16.841750646580767 }, { "id": "PY-14-013-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN ISIDRO CURUGUATY / CANINDEYU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 31.05756358768407, 18.477119279819956, 1.0423333638109171 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-013-M-2021-10-10", "PY-14-013-M-2015-11-15", "PY-14-013-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 64.37602260895433, 33.318459021270264, 0, 0, 0, 2.305518369775398, 0 ], [ 59.00975243810953, 40.53263315828957, 0.4576144036009002, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 40.23955380817409, 41.281887171985005, 0, 0, 8.503245862668008, 0, 9.975313157172899 ] ], "volatility_latest": 7.671788540620202, "volatility_previous": 19.227813033536343, "volatility_mean": 13.449800787078273 }, { "id": "PY-14-013-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN ISIDRO CURUGUATY / CANINDEYU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 33.74954094748439, 24.09328386461725, 0.8728758473395859 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-013-C-2021-10-10", "PY-14-013-C-2015-11-15", "PY-14-013-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 64.19390378259273, 30.444362835108336, 0, 0, 0, 3.2537642306279837, 2.107969151670951 ], [ 54.41053986522299, 30.317256000605738, 0.5148784735367609, 0, 2.067085636404937, 10.365715151056259, 2.324524873173317 ], [ 36.326492710558085, 37.19936855789767, 0, 0.8543040208004458, 10.920234005014393, 0, 14.69960070572941 ] ], "volatility_latest": 9.910470751872339, "volatility_previous": 28.964640779257923, "volatility_mean": 19.43755576556513 }, { "id": "PY-14-015-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "VILLA YGATIMI / CANINDEYU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 0.2206007127099949, 5.6105610561056105, 8.40666975451598 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-015-M-2021-10-10", "PY-14-015-M-2015-11-15", "PY-14-015-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 86.71902140045361, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 49.889699643645, 50.110300356355, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 48.8008800880088, 43.19031903190319, 0, 0, 7.0627062706270625, 0.9460946094609461, 0 ], [ 42.612320518758686, 51.01899027327467, 0, 0, 3.3580361278369617, 0, 3.0106530801296896 ] ], "volatility_latest": 8.008800880088007, "volatility_previous": 10.839324321501163, "volatility_mean": 9.424062600794585 }, { "id": "PY-14-015-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "VILLA YGATIMI / CANINDEYU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 13.165407220822837, 13.606067570673408, 8.113779435765913 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-015-C-2021-10-10", "PY-14-015-C-2015-11-15", "PY-14-015-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 36.03778726363842, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 52.47691015952981, 39.311502938706965, 0, 3.4256926952141056, 0, 0, 4.785894206549118 ], [ 44.63341760514824, 31.027350034474832, 0, 0, 7.055849230062055, 4.045047115605608, 13.238336014709262 ], [ 40.61552809512707, 48.72930753089298, 0, 0, 6.7148519468407555, 0, 3.9403124271391934 ] ], "volatility_latest": 19.55333815382781, "volatility_previous": 17.701957496418146, "volatility_mean": 18.627647825122978 }, { "id": "PY-14-017-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YPE JHU / CANINDEYU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 8.319467554076539, 4.599463395937141, 20.515574650912995 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-017-M-2021-10-10", "PY-14-017-M-2015-11-15", "PY-14-017-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 57.884614918408175, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 54.15973377703827, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 45.84026622296173 ], [ 36.56573399770027, 31.966270601763128, 0, 0, 0, 31.467995400536605, 0 ], [ 54.13533834586466, 33.619763694951665, 0, 1.5037593984962405, 2.255639097744361, 0, 8.485499462943071 ] ], "volatility_latest": 63.43426600229973, "volatility_previous": 31.4679954005366, "volatility_mean": 47.451130701418165 }, { "id": "PY-14-017-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YPE JHU / CANINDEYU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 13.790255986787779, 13.508144616607073, 16.10403984504704 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-017-C-2021-10-10", "PY-14-017-C-2015-11-15", "PY-14-017-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 30.31499519220253, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 52.49105422515827, 0, 3.1654280209193506, 0, 0, 5.642719515551885, 38.700798238370496 ], [ 37.14739769566945, 23.639253079062374, 0, 0, 0, 19.785458879618595, 19.427890345649583 ], [ 48.09075816270061, 31.98671831765357, 0, 2.4903154399557277, 8.024349750968456, 0, 9.407858328721638 ] ], "volatility_latest": 37.781992443129084, "volatility_previous": 29.80549089654654, "volatility_mean": 33.793741669837814 }, { "id": "PY-15-001-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "BENJAMIN ACEVAL / PDTE. HAYES", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 16.827317473338802, 12.442871885596343, 8.85840108401084 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-15-001-M-2021-10-10", "PY-15-001-M-2015-11-15", "PY-15-001-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 26.424539209583664, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 50.89212469237079, 0, 0, 0, 9.003281378178835, 0, 40.10459392945037 ], [ 40.896358543417364, 0, 1.9902697921273773, 0, 2.063983488132095, 0, 55.04938817632316 ], [ 42.58130081300813, 0, 0, 0, 1.4227642276422765, 2.269647696476965, 53.72628726287263 ] ], "volatility_latest": 16.93506403900017, "volatility_previous": 3.954589966067728, "volatility_mean": 10.44482700253395 }, { "id": "PY-15-001-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "BENJAMIN ACEVAL / PDTE. HAYES", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 28.49462365591398, 1.6365601358653699, 3.5381429064549534 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-15-001-C-2021-10-10", "PY-15-001-C-2015-11-15", "PY-15-001-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 10.292217375232527, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 39.5110570095354, 11.016433353621425, 1.754919862040982, 7.192128220734429, 6.624061675796308, 0, 33.901399878271455 ], [ 17.755133549482785, 0, 4.369306777829242, 0, 8.95476300756523, 1.6519993824301373, 67.26879728269259 ], [ 29.461511908871245, 0, 0, 0, 3.6762167759751465, 5.05695547117708, 61.80531584397652 ] ], "volatility_latest": 39.96448503440846, "volatility_previous": 15.111334448135397, "volatility_mean": 27.53790974127193 }, { "id": "PY-15-005-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "NANAWA / PDTE. HAYES", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 59.21862456515922, 24.562937062937063, 4.180352343983278 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-15-005-M-2021-10-10", "PY-15-005-M-2015-11-15", "PY-15-005-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 79.60931228257961, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 20.39068771742039 ], [ 59.032634032634036, 6.497668997668998, 0, 0, 0, 0, 34.46969696969697 ], [ 47.626157061809494, 8.928038220364288, 0, 0, 43.44580471782621, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 20.576678249945573, "volatility_previous": 45.876173940521504, "volatility_mean": 33.226426095233535 }, { "id": "PY-15-005-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "NANAWA / PDTE. HAYES", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 64.93403693931398, 6.111630807608357, 9.184914841849148 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-15-005-C-2021-10-10", "PY-15-005-C-2015-11-15", "PY-15-005-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 78.97097625329815, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 21.029023746701846 ], [ 28.749610227627066, 21.328344246959777, 6.111630807608357, 0, 22.63797942001871, 0, 21.172435297786095 ], [ 45.49878345498784, 12.956204379562044, 0, 0, 36.31386861313869, 0, 5.231143552311435 ] ], "volatility_latest": 50.22136602567109, "volatility_previous": 30.42506242048075, "volatility_mean": 40.32321422307592 }, { "id": "PY-15-007-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "PUERTO PINASCO / PDTE. HAYES", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 23.769457299116535, 5.953096812988575, 15.181818181818182 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-15-007-M-2021-10-10", "PY-15-007-M-2015-11-15", "PY-15-007-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 12.171073792258436, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 61.88472864955827, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 38.11527135044173 ], [ 52.916416115454, 46.96331930246542, 0, 0, 0.12026458208057728, 0, 0 ], [ 40.09090909090909, 55.27272727272727, 0, 4.090909090909091, 0.5454545454545454, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 47.083583884546, "volatility_previous": 12.825507024544908, "volatility_mean": 29.954545454545453 }, { "id": "PY-15-007-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "PUERTO PINASCO / PDTE. HAYES", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 9.098567818028643, 5.9038344491783326, 10.303587856485741 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-15-007-C-2021-10-10", "PY-15-007-C-2015-11-15", "PY-15-007-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 58.696750943903695, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 54.54928390901432, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 45.45071609098568 ], [ 50.82166768107121, 44.91783323189288, 0, 0, 4.26049908703591, 0, 0 ], [ 38.17847286108556, 48.482060717571294, 0, 6.255749770009199, 7.083716651333947, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 49.17833231892879, "volatility_previous": 12.643194819985652, "volatility_mean": 30.91076356945722 }, { "id": "PY-15-000-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "VILLA HAYES / PDTE. HAYES", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 5.150696108929573, 11.107266435986158, 3.0398736675878406 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-15-000-M-2021-10-10", "PY-15-000-M-2015-11-15", "PY-15-000-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 66.36707518543813, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 42.62838492528941, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 57.37161507471059 ], [ 36.996539792387544, 0, 0, 0, 5.460207612456747, 3.162629757785467, 54.38062283737025 ], [ 50.17765495459929, 0, 0, 0, 2.0232925384919067, 0, 47.79905250690881 ] ], "volatility_latest": 8.622837370242213, "volatility_previous": 13.181115162211746, "volatility_mean": 10.90197626622698 }, { "id": "PY-15-000-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "VILLA HAYES / PDTE. HAYES", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 19.699028637576124, 0.977340186780569, 16.172199170124482 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-15-000-C-2021-10-10", "PY-15-000-C-2015-11-15", "PY-15-000-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 31.35080422203853, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 32.16065227238412, 12.461623634807992, 8.681866223765665, 2.8637576123609643, 2.727867532336806, 4.142130957773416, 36.96210176657104 ], [ 19.40925215376819, 0, 0, 0.8687468326938391, 3.7862882791573154, 2.8451458770723232, 73.09056685730835 ], [ 31.244813278008298, 15.072614107883817, 3.7448132780082988, 4.097510373443983, 3.8174273858921164, 5.66390041493776, 36.358921161825734 ] ], "volatility_latest": 37.18688583755781, "volatility_previous": 36.73164569548261, "volatility_mean": 36.95926576652021 }, { "id": "PY-16-000-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "FUERTE OLIMPO / ALTO PARAGUAY", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 53.03312244138444, 3.9814814814814814, 22.413793103448278 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-16-000-M-2021-10-10", "PY-16-000-M-2015-11-15", "PY-16-000-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 76.51656122069222, 0, 23.48343877930778, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 51.99074074074074, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 48.00925925925926 ], [ 50.63856960408685, 0, 0, 0, 21.136653895274584, 0, 28.22477650063857 ] ], "volatility_latest": 48.00925925925926, "volatility_previous": 21.136653895274584, "volatility_mean": 34.57295657726692 }, { "id": "PY-16-000-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "FUERTE OLIMPO / ALTO PARAGUAY", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 38.34753612449055, 20.505344995140913, 18.985695708712615 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-16-000-C-2021-10-10", "PY-16-000-C-2015-11-15", "PY-16-000-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 57.65098184512782, 19.303445720637274, 13.856984068173398, 0, 9.188588366061504, 0, 0 ], [ 47.37609329446064, 0, 0, 0, 26.87074829931973, 0, 25.75315840621963 ], [ 49.544863459037714, 0, 0, 0, 19.89596879063719, 0, 30.5591677503251 ] ], "volatility_latest": 43.43531833947786, "volatility_previous": 6.974779508682541, "volatility_mean": 25.205048924080202 }, { "id": "PY-16-001-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "PUERTO CASADO / ALTO PARAGUAY", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 60.869565217391305, 28.362305580969807, 11.257928118393234 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-16-001-M-2021-10-10", "PY-16-001-M-2015-11-15", "PY-16-001-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 80.43478260869566, 0, 0, 0, 0, 19.565217391304348, 0 ], [ 63.22049405306496, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 36.77950594693504 ], [ 47.832980972515855, 0, 0, 0, 0.6342494714587738, 14.957716701902749, 36.575052854122625 ] ], "volatility_latest": 36.77950594693504, "volatility_previous": 15.591966173361522, "volatility_mean": 26.18573606014828 }, { "id": "PY-16-001-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "PUERTO CASADO / ALTO PARAGUAY", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 72.73047149894441, 41.6274694261524, 18.157327586206897 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-16-001-C-2021-10-10", "PY-16-001-C-2015-11-15", "PY-16-001-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 82.44194229415905, 0, 4.539057002111189, 0, 0, 9.711470795214638, 3.3075299085151304 ], [ 53.198494825964254, 5.032925682031985, 5.691439322671684, 2.6810912511759173, 0, 11.053621825023518, 22.342427093132642 ], [ 48.491379310344826, 0, 0, 0, 5.334051724137931, 15.84051724137931, 30.334051724137932 ] ], "volatility_latest": 29.24344746819479, "volatility_previous": 18.112571771499013, "volatility_mean": 23.678009619846904 }, { "id": "PY-17-003-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "MCAL.ESTIGARRIBIA / BOQUERON", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 27.907470288624786, 2.263109475620975, 11.791383219954648 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-17-003-M-2021-10-10", "PY-17-003-M-2015-11-15", "PY-17-003-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 6.987233310716867, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 34.44397283531409, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 65.5560271646859 ], [ 48.86844526218951, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 51.13155473781049 ], [ 42.58915687487116, 0, 0, 0, 1.91713048855906, 17.46031746031746, 38.03339517625232 ] ], "volatility_latest": 14.424472426875415, "volatility_previous": 19.377447948876522, "volatility_mean": 16.900960187875967 }, { "id": "PY-17-003-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "MCAL.ESTIGARRIBIA / BOQUERON", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 8.202628232301823, 1.733997417450655, 10.865022983702465 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-17-003-C-2021-10-10", "PY-17-003-C-2015-11-15", "PY-17-003-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 67.35860768506731, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 39.29631199660873, 0, 0, 0, 7.566765578635015, 0, 53.13692242475625 ], [ 50.3043718871057, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1.1252536432392548, 48.57037446965504 ], [ 41.80944421228583, 0, 0, 0, 2.695361470956958, 17.1541997492687, 38.34099456748851 ] ], "volatility_latest": 12.133313533736224, "volatility_previous": 18.724307576986405, "volatility_mean": 15.428810555361315 }, { "id": "PY-07-027-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ITAPUA POTY / ITAPUA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 13.311962206850009, 4.903923138510809, 15.5561317085818 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-027-M-2021-10-10", "PY-07-027-M-2015-11-15", "PY-07-027-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 44.93016281739286, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 43.344018896574994, 56.655981103425006, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 38.61088871096877, 43.514811849479585, 0, 0, 0, 17.874299439551642, 0 ], [ 30.852994555353902, 46.409126263935704, 0, 15.893181228934404, 2.4371273010111487, 0, 4.407570650764844 ] ], "volatility_latest": 17.874299439551642, "volatility_previous": 25.632193595166513, "volatility_mean": 21.753246517359077 }, { "id": "PY-07-027-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ITAPUA POTY / ITAPUA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 4.24171014980643, 4.870063433599345, 6.218307979717107 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-07-027-C-2021-10-10", "PY-07-027-C-2015-11-15", "PY-07-027-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 76.86062041032315, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 45.24490826460192, 41.00319811479549, 0, 0, 1.75054704595186, 9.08937889244235, 2.9119676822083824 ], [ 36.73010026601187, 41.600163699611215, 0, 5.21792510742787, 0, 16.451810926949047, 0 ], [ 31.411796103549506, 37.630104083266616, 0, 16.92020282892981, 4.1900186816119565, 0, 9.847878302642114 ] ], "volatility_latest": 13.177322726750294, "volatility_previous": 25.740174705756008, "volatility_mean": 19.45874871625315 }, { "id": "PY-02-024-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SANTA ROSA DEL AGUARAY / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 18.31331208629566, 2.216953171310018, 11.181339352896915 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-024-M-2021-10-10", "PY-02-024-M-2015-11-15", "PY-02-024-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 36.14396430769954, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 48.56582495709733, 30.252512870801667, 0, 0, 0, 5.556917545149955, 15.62474462695105 ], [ 48.39359810314167, 46.17664493183165, 0, 0, 4.422050978067576, 0, 1.007705986959099 ], [ 41.29420617005267, 30.112866817155755, 0, 0, 6.486079759217457, 11.512415349887133, 10.594431903686983 ] ], "volatility_latest": 20.346183039097564, "volatility_previous": 23.1631700477649, "volatility_mean": 21.75467654343123 }, { "id": "PY-02-024-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SANTA ROSA DEL AGUARAY / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 17.064235121712937, 10.669301061990614, 9.54426883535369 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-024-C-2021-10-10", "PY-02-024-C-2015-11-15", "PY-02-024-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 28.031208624198435, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 49.16551331108035, 32.10127818936742, 0, 0, 0, 6.423512171293658, 12.309696328258568 ], [ 46.6164485058039, 35.947147443813286, 0, 0, 6.816497900716226, 8.335391454680169, 2.284514694986416 ], [ 37.62467392972226, 28.080405094368576, 0, 1.6878932023937394, 8.424121528310572, 11.186128586773055, 12.996777658431794 ] ], "volatility_latest": 12.574246438548602, "volatility_previous": 16.85851692552635, "volatility_mean": 14.716381682037476 }, { "id": "PY-02-032-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YRYBUCUA / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 10.02551950419249, 12.392813393221724, 13.391777509068923 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-032-M-2021-10-10", "PY-02-032-M-2015-11-15", "PY-02-032-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 44.63833264305548, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 53.991979584396645, 43.96646008020416, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2.041560335399198 ], [ 42.139648836259695, 54.53246222948142, 0, 0, 0, 3.327888934258881, 0 ], [ 33.796856106408704, 47.18863361547763, 0, 0, 14.117291414752117, 4.897218863361548, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 13.893891083536145, "volatility_previous": 15.686621343854783, "volatility_mean": 14.790256213695464 }, { "id": "PY-02-032-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YRYBUCUA / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 11.309846431797652, 15.847347994825355, 10.441767068273093 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-032-C-2021-10-10", "PY-02-032-C-2015-11-15", "PY-02-032-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 37.07855517823246, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 53.8572719060524, 42.547425474254744, 0, 0, 0, 1.933152664859982, 1.6621499548328817 ], [ 34.88572660629582, 50.733074601121174, 0, 0, 0, 6.791720569210867, 7.589478223372143 ], [ 32.839048501699104, 43.2808155699722, 0, 0, 15.56997219647822, 8.310163731850478, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 18.971545299756578, "volatility_previous": 17.088415359117832, "volatility_mean": 18.029980329437205 }, { "id": "PY-10-030-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SANTA FE DEL PARANA / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ null, 19.086021505376344, 16.72780630961115 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-030-M-2021-10-10", "PY-10-030-M-2015-11-15", "PY-10-030-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 100.0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 40.456989247311824, 0, 0, 0, 59.543010752688176, 0, 0 ], [ 36.02347762289068, 0, 0, 9.904622157006603, 52.751283932501835, 1.3206162876008805, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 59.543010752688176, "volatility_previous": 11.225238444607484, "volatility_mean": 35.38412459864783 }, { "id": "PY-10-030-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SANTA FE DEL PARANA / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 38.01742919389978, 0.09280742459396751, 13.558052434456929 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-030-C-2021-10-10", "PY-10-030-C-2015-11-15", "PY-10-030-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 54.57516339869281, 4.357298474945534, 0, 5.737109658678286, 16.55773420479303, 3.2679738562091503, 15.50472040668119 ], [ 43.06264501160093, 6.2645011600928076, 0, 0, 43.15545243619489, 7.517401392111369, 0 ], [ 25.767790262172284, 10.561797752808989, 0, 18.95131086142322, 39.325842696629216, 5.393258426966292, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 32.75434845245135, "volatility_previous": 23.2486074541394, "volatility_mean": 28.001477953295378 }, { "id": "PY-14-016-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YASY CAÑY / CANINDEYU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 13.911223703050997, 16.45720333377431, 2.457912457912458 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-016-M-2021-10-10", "PY-14-016-M-2015-11-15", "PY-14-016-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 32.35156766122931, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 43.0443881484745, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 56.9556118515255 ], [ 34.70035719010451, 51.15756052387882, 0, 0, 0, 14.142082286016668, 0 ], [ 36.16161616161616, 33.7037037037037, 0, 0, 8.636363636363637, 0, 21.4983164983165 ] ], "volatility_latest": 65.29964280989549, "volatility_previous": 31.595939106191786, "volatility_mean": 48.44779095804364 }, { "id": "PY-14-016-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YASY CAÑY / CANINDEYU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 8.522291598203527, 11.296673455532925, 2.8200307639719706 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-016-C-2021-10-10", "PY-14-016-C-2015-11-15", "PY-14-016-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 56.07809964010404, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 40.957388542008985, 49.47968014021251, 0, 2.0155548252820683, 0, 7.54737649249644, 0 ], [ 34.78615071283096, 46.082824168363885, 0, 0, 1.805838424983028, 16.646300067888664, 0.6788866259334692 ], [ 35.05383695094856, 32.23380618697659, 0, 0, 9.468466928730132, 0, 23.24388993334473 ] ], "volatility_latest": 11.583648626308719, "volatility_previous": 30.495318049275962, "volatility_mean": 21.03948333779234 }, { "id": "PY-15-003-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "FORTIN JOSE FALCON / PDTE. HAYES", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 66.94821887623944, 19.647004180213656, 17.073170731707318 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-15-003-M-2021-10-10", "PY-15-003-M-2015-11-15", "PY-15-003-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 83.47410943811973, 16.525890561880278, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 59.82350209010683, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40.17649790989317 ], [ 57.68576290414067, 40.61259217243335, 0, 0, 1.7016449234259785, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 40.17649790989317, "volatility_previous": 42.31423709585933, "volatility_mean": 41.24536750287625 }, { "id": "PY-15-003-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "FORTIN JOSE FALCON / PDTE. HAYES", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 58.58514041948098, 11.372549019607844, 19.49352179034158 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-15-003-C-2021-10-10", "PY-15-003-C-2015-11-15", "PY-15-003-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 70.42303590472805, 11.837895485247067, 0, 6.683256309989336, 11.05581230003555, 0, 0 ], [ 42.009803921568626, 0, 0, 9.950980392156863, 17.401960784313726, 0, 30.637254901960784 ], [ 48.70435806831566, 29.21083627797409, 5.418138987043581, 0, 8.362779740871614, 0, 8.303886925795053 ] ], "volatility_latest": 40.251127468406494, "volatility_previous": 41.32352941176471, "volatility_mean": 40.7873284400856 }, { "id": "PY-15-009-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "TTE. IRALA FERNANDEZ / PDTE. HAYES", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 7.8204534937528924, 20.180790960451976, 10.157943635800557 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-15-009-M-2021-10-10", "PY-15-009-M-2015-11-15", "PY-15-009-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 41.18848126016308, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 51.50393336418325, 0, 0, 0, 0, 4.812586765386396, 43.683479870430354 ], [ 37.28813559322034, 0, 0, 0, 2.5762711864406778, 2.6666666666666665, 57.46892655367232 ], [ 28.36791576339424, 23.474759987612263, 0, 0, 0.43357076494270674, 38.5258593991948, 9.197894084855992 ] ], "volatility_latest": 16.36171786968264, "volatility_previous": 59.3339527201404, "volatility_mean": 37.84783529491152 }, { "id": "PY-15-009-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "TTE. IRALA FERNANDEZ / PDTE. HAYES", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 6.2413314840499305, 21.148105625717566, 9.971599873777217 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-15-009-C-2021-10-10", "PY-15-009-C-2015-11-15", "PY-15-009-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 44.56804717238525, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 50.069348127600556, 0, 0, 0, 2.196024040684235, 3.9066111881645864, 43.828016643550626 ], [ 36.25717566016073, 0, 0, 0, 1.5614236509758899, 3.3983926521239955, 58.78300803673938 ], [ 26.885452824234775, 23.572104764910065, 0, 0, 2.619122751656674, 36.85705269801199, 10.066266961186495 ] ], "volatility_latest": 14.954991393188758, "volatility_previous": 58.08846391147885, "volatility_mean": 36.5217276523338 }, { "id": "PY-16-003-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "BAHIA NEGRA / ALTO PARAGUAY", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 24.775876120619397, 14.901960784313726, 0.9302325581395349 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-16-003-M-2021-10-10", "PY-16-003-M-2015-11-15", "PY-16-003-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 2.8543141826014584, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 49.796251018744904, 11.328443357783211, 0, 13.854930725346373, 0, 25.02037489812551, 0 ], [ 57.450980392156865, 42.549019607843135, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 49.14728682170543, 50.07751937984496, 0, 0, 0.7751937984496124, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 38.87530562347188, "volatility_previous": 8.303693570451436, "volatility_mean": 23.58949959696166 }, { "id": "PY-16-003-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "BAHIA NEGRA / ALTO PARAGUAY", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 33.737864077669904, 4.676616915422885, 12.578616352201259 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-16-003-C-2021-10-10", "PY-16-003-C-2015-11-15", "PY-16-003-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 56.79611650485437, 12.055016181229773, 0, 8.090614886731391, 0, 23.058252427184467, 0 ], [ 52.33830845771144, 47.66169154228856, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 47.327044025157235, 34.74842767295598, 0, 0, 17.92452830188679, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 35.606675361058784, "volatility_previous": 17.924528301886788, "volatility_mean": 26.765601831472786 }, { "id": "PY-17-000-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "FILADELFIA / BOQUERON", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 32.05128205128205, 48.92972972972973, 26.4390243902439 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-17-000-M-2021-10-10", "PY-17-000-M-2015-11-15", "PY-17-000-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 28.173472617917064, 0, 0, 0, 11.601772712883824, 0, 60.224754669199115 ], [ 25.535135135135135, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 74.46486486486486 ], [ 7.5772357723577235, 0, 24.29268292682927, 0, 17.398373983739837, 0, 50.73170731707317 ] ], "volatility_latest": 14.24011019566575, "volatility_previous": 41.6910569105691, "volatility_mean": 27.965583553117426 }, { "id": "PY-17-000-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "FILADELFIA / BOQUERON", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 26.243486499289435, 49.23520283750831, 24.554455445544555 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-17-000-C-2021-10-10", "PY-17-000-C-2015-11-15", "PY-17-000-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 30.127901468498344, 0, 0, 0, 11.274277593557557, 2.226432970156324, 56.371387967787776 ], [ 22.56705830192862, 0, 0, 0, 0, 5.630680558634449, 71.80226113943694 ], [ 8.481848184818482, 0, 25.115511551155116, 0, 16.73267326732673, 0, 49.66996699669967 ] ], "volatility_latest": 18.835120760127282, "volatility_previous": 41.84818481848185, "volatility_mean": 30.341652789304565 }, { "id": "PY-17-001-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LOMA PLATA / BOQUERON", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 9.565807327001357, 45.298701298701296, 0.22091310751104565 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-17-001-M-2021-10-10", "PY-17-001-M-2015-11-15", "PY-17-001-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 3.2440695171884526, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 38.2123473541384, 3.443012211668928, 0, 28.595658073270013, 28.646540027137043, 0, 1.1024423337856173 ], [ 20.051948051948052, 0, 14.597402597402597, 0, 0, 0, 65.35064935064935 ], [ 50.110456553755526, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 49.889543446244474 ] ], "volatility_latest": 78.84560961426634, "volatility_previous": 30.058508501807474, "volatility_mean": 54.45205905803691 }, { "id": "PY-17-001-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LOMA PLATA / BOQUERON", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 9.36587042447156, 25.45731707317073, 9.554625047582794 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-17-001-C-2021-10-10", "PY-17-001-C-2015-11-15", "PY-17-001-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 28.939100593037836, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 37.42911153119093, 6.444406255370339, 0, 28.063241106719367, 26.619694105516412, 0, 1.4435470012029559 ], [ 14.43089430894309, 0, 8.705962059620596, 20.00338753387534, 0, 1.3211382113821137, 55.538617886178855 ], [ 44.689760182717926, 0, 20.175104682146937, 0, 0, 0, 35.13513513513514 ] ], "volatility_latest": 64.1221711559786, "volatility_previous": 41.72800849630118, "volatility_mean": 52.925089826139896 }, { "id": "PY-01-002-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "AZOTEY / CONCEPCION", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 0.5156037991858887, 12.111468381564844, 9.627329192546584 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-01-002-M-2021-10-10", "PY-01-002-M-2015-11-15", "PY-01-002-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 75.47232143382178, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 49.74219810040706, 50.25780189959294, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 53.84065737763487, 41.72918899607002, 0, 0, 0, 4.430153626295105, 0 ], [ 33.74741200828157, 43.374741200828154, 0, 0, 2.950310559006211, 0, 19.92753623188406 ] ], "volatility_latest": 8.528612903522918, "volatility_previous": 24.523398995648403, "volatility_mean": 16.52600594958566 }, { "id": "PY-01-002-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "AZOTEY / CONCEPCION", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 8.145533532446375, 10.339840925524223, 8.311552535284893 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-01-002-C-2021-10-10", "PY-01-002-C-2015-11-15", "PY-01-002-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 55.89786174673209, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 52.64729839804507, 44.501764865598695, 0, 0, 0, 2.8509367363562315, 0 ], [ 48.69848156182213, 38.358640636297906, 0, 0, 6.83297180043384, 6.109906001446132, 0 ], [ 32.723470987977, 41.03502352326189, 0, 0, 4.704652378463147, 0, 21.53685311029796 ] ], "volatility_latest": 10.091941065523738, "volatility_previous": 24.213235997261947, "volatility_mean": 17.152588531392844 }, { "id": "PY-01-006-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN CARLOS DEL APA / CONCEPCION", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 18.14516129032258, 0.43478260869565216, 55.90909090909091 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-01-006-M-2021-10-10", "PY-01-006-M-2015-11-15", "PY-01-006-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 16.957796761443333, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 58.064516129032256, 39.91935483870968, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2.0161290322580645 ], [ 41.44927536231884, 16.666666666666668, 0, 0, 0, 0, 41.88405797101449 ], [ 77.95454545454545, 22.045454545454547, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 39.86792893875643, "volatility_previous": 41.88405797101449, "volatility_mean": 40.87599345488546 }, { "id": "PY-01-006-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN CARLOS DEL APA / CONCEPCION", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 30.852503382949934, 5.294117647058823, 51.70842824601367 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-01-006-C-2021-10-10", "PY-01-006-C-2015-11-15", "PY-01-006-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 63.05818673883626, 32.205683355886336, 0, 0, 0, 0, 4.7361299052774015 ], [ 32.5, 18.529411764705884, 0, 0, 0, 11.176470588235293, 37.794117647058826 ], [ 75.85421412300683, 24.145785876993166, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 44.234458330016714, "volatility_previous": 48.970588235294116, "volatility_mean": 46.60252328265541 }, { "id": "PY-04-030-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "TEBICUARY / GUAIRA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 4.508393285371703, 5.8212058212058215, 17.6814011676397 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-030-M-2021-10-10", "PY-04-030-M-2015-11-15", "PY-04-030-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 68.9023108282563, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 45.08393285371702, 5.323741007194244, 0, 0, 0, 0, 49.592326139088726 ], [ 46.846846846846844, 0.4851004851004851, 0, 0, 0, 0, 52.66805266805267 ], [ 30.275229357798164, 9.341117597998332, 0, 0, 1.6680567139282736, 0, 58.71559633027523 ] ], "volatility_latest": 4.83864052209376, "volatility_previous": 16.571617489048684, "volatility_mean": 10.705129005571223 }, { "id": "PY-04-030-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "TEBICUARY / GUAIRA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 48.275862068965516, 16.655100624566273, 1.0961214165261384 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-04-030-C-2021-10-10", "PY-04-030-C-2015-11-15", "PY-04-030-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 67.24137931034483, 13.793103448275861, 0, 0, 0, 0, 18.96551724137931 ], [ 44.899375433726576, 10.270645385149201, 0, 0, 2.8452463566967383, 13.740458015267176, 28.244274809160306 ], [ 33.305227655986506, 10.876897133220911, 0, 0, 8.853288364249579, 0, 46.964586846543 ] ], "volatility_latest": 25.86446193974491, "volatility_previous": 25.334605793007245, "volatility_mean": 25.599533866376078 }, { "id": "PY-05-034-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "TEMBIAPORA / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 6.121057118499574, 17.736414206247325, 1.8387986515476555 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-034-M-2021-10-10", "PY-05-034-M-2015-11-15", "PY-05-034-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 54.11280800935646, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 48.729752770673485, 42.608695652173914, 0, 0, 0, 8.320545609548168, 0.3410059676044331 ], [ 37.334189131365, 55.070603337612326, 0, 0, 0, 5.626872058194266, 1.9683354728284126 ], [ 49.433037082439476, 47.59423843089182, 0, 0, 2.0226785167024213, 0, 0.9500459699662887 ] ], "volatility_latest": 14.089237190662388, "volatility_previous": 14.121526467776896, "volatility_mean": 14.105381829219642 }, { "id": "PY-05-034-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "TEMBIAPORA / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 11.173564980412195, 10.126582278481013, 5.394449641409417 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-034-C-2021-10-10", "PY-05-034-C-2015-11-15", "PY-05-034-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 48.59220682033719, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 49.82115482881962, 38.64758984840743, 0, 0, 2.640095384091296, 8.192812127405894, 0.6983478112757622 ], [ 30.979347101932046, 41.10592938041306, 0, 0, 0, 7.150788363313347, 20.76393515434155 ], [ 40.59869036482694, 45.99314000623636, 0, 0, 6.018085438104147, 0, 7.390084190832554 ] ], "volatility_latest": 22.523926875071417, "volatility_previous": 20.524639326822346, "volatility_mean": 21.52428310094688 }, { "id": "PY-14-011-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "NUEVA ESPERANZA / CANINDEYU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 8.102658111824015, 32.15605749486653, 8.933933933933934 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-011-M-2021-10-10", "PY-14-011-M-2015-11-15", "PY-14-011-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 22.990972455261193, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 53.51054078826765, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 46.48945921173235 ], [ 63.94250513347023, 31.786447638603697, 0.4517453798767967, 3.8193018480492813, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 36.86186186186186, 27.92792792792793, 0, 22.935435435435437, 0.2627627627627628, 0, 12.012012012012011 ] ], "volatility_latest": 46.48945921173235, "volatility_previous": 31.390908362160932, "volatility_mean": 38.94018378694664 }, { "id": "PY-14-011-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "NUEVA ESPERANZA / CANINDEYU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 34.24607520993063, 24.03117101937658, 1.8511522478277296 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-011-C-2021-10-10", "PY-14-011-C-2015-11-15", "PY-14-011-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 54.70974808324206, 0, 0, 11.080686381891201, 0, 0, 34.20956553486674 ], [ 38.03706823925864, 12.047177759056444, 1.8534119629317607, 14.005897219882055, 3.5172704296545914, 5.581297388374052, 24.95787700084246 ], [ 30.034000755572347, 12.391386475255006, 0, 28.182848507744616, 5.477899508877975, 0, 23.913864752550055 ] ], "volatility_latest": 25.924368378007703, "volatility_previous": 16.481789083284507, "volatility_mean": 21.203078730646105 }, { "id": "PY-15-004-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "GRAL. JOSE M. BRUGUEZ / PDTE. HAYES", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ null, 69.60352422907489, 53.976531942633635 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-15-004-M-2021-10-10", "PY-15-004-M-2015-11-15", "PY-15-004-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 100.0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 84.80176211453744, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 15.198237885462555 ], [ 75.88005215123859, 21.903520208604956, 0, 0, 2.2164276401564535, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 15.198237885462557, "volatility_previous": 24.11994784876141, "volatility_mean": 19.659092867111983 }, { "id": "PY-15-004-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "GRAL. JOSE M. BRUGUEZ / PDTE. HAYES", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 71.87244480784955, 41.888888888888886, 40.58898847631242 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-15-004-C-2021-10-10", "PY-15-004-C-2015-11-15", "PY-15-004-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 85.93622240392477, 14.063777596075225, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 63.44444444444444, 0, 0, 0, 15.0, 0, 21.555555555555557 ], [ 60.69142125480154, 20.102432778489117, 0, 17.6696542893726, 1.5364916773367479, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 36.55555555555556, "volatility_previous": 37.77208706786171, "volatility_mean": 37.16382131170863 }, { "id": "PY-15-011-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "TTE. ESTEBAN MARTINEZ / PDTE. HAYES", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 23.116883116883116, 5.832147937411095, 6.007067137809187 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-15-011-M-2021-10-10", "PY-15-011-M-2015-11-15", "PY-15-011-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 18.897595174329428, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 38.44155844155844, 61.55844155844156, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 52.91607396870555, 47.08392603129445, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 46.996466431095406, 53.003533568904594, 0, 0, 0.0, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 14.474515527147105, "volatility_previous": 5.9196075376101405, "volatility_mean": 10.197061532378623 }, { "id": "PY-15-011-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "TTE. ESTEBAN MARTINEZ / PDTE. HAYES", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 7.542262678803641, 9.351432880844646, 16.787003610108304 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-15-011-C-2021-10-10", "PY-15-011-C-2015-11-15", "PY-15-011-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 54.95256083726796, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 53.05591677503251, 45.51365409622887, 0, 0, 1.4304291287386215, 0, 0 ], [ 48.56711915535445, 39.21568627450981, 0, 0, 12.217194570135746, 0, 0 ], [ 36.101083032490976, 52.888086642599276, 0, 0, 11.010830324909747, 0, 0 ] ], "volatility_latest": 10.786765441397122, "volatility_previous": 13.67240036808947, "volatility_mean": 12.229582904743296 }, { "id": "PY-16-002-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CARMELO PERALTA / ALTO PARAGUAY", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 40.1920438957476, 2.193242442205098, 25.29850746268657 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-16-002-M-2021-10-10", "PY-16-002-M-2015-11-15", "PY-16-002-M-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 70.0960219478738, 29.9039780521262, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 51.09662122110255, 48.90337877889745, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 50.67164179104478, 0, 0, 0, 25.37313432835821, 0, 23.955223880597014 ] ], "volatility_latest": 18.999400726771245, "volatility_previous": 49.32835820895522, "volatility_mean": 34.16387946786323 }, { "id": "PY-16-002-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CARMELO PERALTA / ALTO PARAGUAY", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015, 2010 ], "gaps": [ 54.851936218678816, 22.602739726027398, 26.812688821752264 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-16-002-C-2021-10-10", "PY-16-002-C-2015-11-15", "PY-16-002-C-2010-11-07" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 75.21640091116173, 20.364464692482915, 0, 0, 4.419134396355353, 0, 0 ], [ 47.13574097135741, 24.533001245330013, 0, 0, 16.562889165628892, 0, 11.768368617683686 ], [ 51.661631419939575, 0, 0, 0, 23.48942598187311, 0, 24.84894259818731 ] ], "volatility_latest": 28.08065993980432, "volatility_previous": 24.533001245330013, "volatility_mean": 26.306830592567167 }, { "id": "PY-01-004-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SGTO.JOSE FELIX LOPEZ / CONCEPCION", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015 ], "gaps": [ 3.0531948378973874, 25.009693679720822 ], "vote_cycles": 2, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-01-004-M-2021-10-10", "PY-01-004-M-2015-11-15" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 51.5265974189487, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 48.4734025810513 ], [ 62.50484683986041, 37.49515316013959, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], null ], "volatility_latest": 48.4734025810513, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-01-004-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SGTO.JOSE FELIX LOPEZ / CONCEPCION", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015 ], "gaps": [ 13.673597983616887, 22.503057480635956 ], "vote_cycles": 2, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-01-004-C-2021-10-10", "PY-01-004-C-2015-11-15" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 56.83679899180844, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 43.16320100819156 ], [ 50.91724419078679, 28.414186710150837, 0, 0, 0, 20.668569099062374, 0 ], null ], "volatility_latest": 49.08275580921321, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-01-008-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN ALFREDO / CONCEPCION", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015 ], "gaps": [ 36.02853745541022, 10.950413223140496 ], "vote_cycles": 2, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-01-008-M-2021-10-10", "PY-01-008-M-2015-11-15" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 68.01426872770512, 31.98573127229489, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 55.47520661157025, 44.52479338842975, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], null ], "volatility_latest": 12.539062116134863, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-01-008-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN ALFREDO / CONCEPCION", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015 ], "gaps": [ 27.774480712166174, 2.6329647182727753 ], "vote_cycles": 2, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-01-008-C-2021-10-10", "PY-01-008-C-2015-11-15" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 61.75074183976261, 33.97626112759644, 0, 0, 4.27299703264095, 0, 0 ], [ 41.44286466561348, 44.07582938388626, 0, 0, 14.481305950500264, 0, 0 ], null ], "volatility_latest": 20.307877174149134, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-01-010-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "PASO BARRETO / CONCEPCION", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015 ], "gaps": [ 0.7347538574577517, 12.631578947368421 ], "vote_cycles": 2, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-01-010-M-2021-10-10", "PY-01-010-M-2015-11-15" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 49.63262307127113, 50.36737692872887, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 56.31578947368421, 43.68421052631579, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], null ], "volatility_latest": 6.683166402413086, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-01-010-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "PASO BARRETO / CONCEPCION", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015 ], "gaps": [ 9.381898454746137, 13.922902494331066 ], "vote_cycles": 2, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-01-010-C-2021-10-10", "PY-01-010-C-2015-11-15" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 53.89992641648271, 44.51802796173657, 0, 1.582045621780721, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 53.06122448979592, 39.13832199546485, 0, 0, 7.800453514739229, 0, 0 ], null ], "volatility_latest": 7.80045351473923, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-02-016-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LIBERACION / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015 ], "gaps": [ 2.408731652239368, 12.596685082872929 ], "vote_cycles": 2, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-016-M-2021-10-10", "PY-02-016-M-2015-11-15" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 48.296951449002634, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 51.703048550997366 ], [ 42.9171270718232, 55.51381215469613, 0, 0, 1.569060773480663, 0, 0 ], null ], "volatility_latest": 57.0828729281768, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-02-016-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LIBERACION / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015 ], "gaps": [ 3.349282296650718, 7.685372999774622 ], "vote_cycles": 2, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-016-C-2021-10-10", "PY-02-016-C-2015-11-15" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 48.47546674172061, 45.126184445069896, 1.6793320198892954, 0, 0, 2.9740125715357912, 1.7450042217844075 ], [ 41.42438584629254, 49.109758846067166, 0, 0, 2.5129592066711743, 6.952896100969124, 0 ], null ], "volatility_latest": 10.475417137101775, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-05-020-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "NUEVA TOLEDO / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015 ], "gaps": [ 17.06896551724138, 32.974266906044285 ], "vote_cycles": 2, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-020-M-2021-10-10", "PY-05-020-M-2015-11-15" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 41.46551724137931, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 58.53448275862069 ], [ 65.76900059844405, 32.79473369239976, 0, 0, 0, 1.436265709156194, 0 ], null ], "volatility_latest": 58.53448275862069, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-05-020-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "NUEVA TOLEDO / CAAGUAZU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015 ], "gaps": [ 17.208904109589042, 28.92007321537523 ], "vote_cycles": 2, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-05-020-C-2021-10-10", "PY-05-020-C-2015-11-15" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 48.03082191780822, 6.806506849315069, 0, 6.892123287671233, 0, 0, 38.27054794520548 ], [ 57.5960951799878, 28.67602196461257, 0, 0, 0, 13.727882855399633, 0 ], null ], "volatility_latest": 45.16267123287671, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-06-002-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "3 DE MAYO / CAAZAPA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015 ], "gaps": [ 5.276952647213, 7.58714969241285 ], "vote_cycles": 2, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-06-002-M-2021-10-10", "PY-06-002-M-2015-11-15" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 48.034247772147474, 0, 0, 0, 0, 7.653328673772497, 44.31242355408003 ], [ 41.23946229209387, 0, 1.8683071314650261, 0, 0, 7.58714969241285, 49.30508088402825 ], null ], "volatility_latest": 6.86096446141325, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-06-002-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "3 DE MAYO / CAAZAPA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015 ], "gaps": [ 7.960722426792916, 1.4512785072563925 ], "vote_cycles": 2, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-06-002-C-2021-10-10", "PY-06-002-C-2015-11-15" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 49.39505523408732, 41.4343328072944, 0, 0, 0, 5.505874101350167, 3.664737857268104 ], [ 40.61276203639714, 0, 4.6072333563695, 0, 0, 11.748445058742226, 43.03155954849113 ], null ], "volatility_latest": 50.21662600498458, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-10-002-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "DR. RAUL PEÑA / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015 ], "gaps": [ 17.613456045699778, 2.577914582531743 ], "vote_cycles": 2, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-002-M-2021-10-10", "PY-10-002-M-2015-11-15" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 41.19327197715011, 58.80672802284989, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 48.71104270873413, 51.28895729126587, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], null ], "volatility_latest": 7.517770731584015, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-10-002-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "DR. RAUL PEÑA / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015 ], "gaps": [ 9.056364787840405, 22.098765432098766 ], "vote_cycles": 2, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-002-C-2021-10-10", "PY-10-002-C-2015-11-15" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 46.0734642178594, 37.017099430019, 3.641545281823939, 7.916402786573781, 0, 5.351488283723876, 0 ], [ 49.58847736625514, 27.48971193415638, 0, 0, 6.008230452674897, 4.403292181069959, 12.510288065843621 ], null ], "volatility_latest": 22.033531666914257, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-10-034-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "TAVAPY / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015 ], "gaps": [ 2.660217654171705, 22.27747389358528 ], "vote_cycles": 2, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-034-M-2021-10-10", "PY-10-034-M-2015-11-15" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 51.33010882708585, 48.66989117291415, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 37.742416708105424, 60.019890601690705, 0, 0, 0, 0.3232222774738936, 1.9144704127299852 ], null ], "volatility_latest": 13.587692118980431, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-10-034-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "TAVAPY / ALTO PARANA", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015 ], "gaps": [ 1.156186612576065, 15.97542242703533 ], "vote_cycles": 2, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-10-034-C-2021-10-10", "PY-10-034-C-2015-11-15" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 47.099391480730226, 48.25557809330629, 0, 0, 0, 4.645030425963489, 0 ], [ 33.922171018945214, 49.89759344598054, 0, 3.763440860215054, 5.606758832565284, 0.5120327700972862, 6.29800307219662 ], null ], "volatility_latest": 17.31021811765121, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-13-004-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ZANJA PYTA / AMAMBAY", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015 ], "gaps": [ 34.32674072067191, 12.064886786076377 ], "vote_cycles": 2, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-13-004-M-2021-10-10", "PY-13-004-M-2015-11-15" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 67.16337036033595, 32.83662963966405, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 54.68063534978033, 42.61574856370395, 0, 0, 2.703616086515715, 0, 0 ], null ], "volatility_latest": 12.482735010555619, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-13-004-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ZANJA PYTA / AMAMBAY", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015 ], "gaps": [ 38.22246455834242, 11.09220823409323 ], "vote_cycles": 2, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-13-004-C-2021-10-10", "PY-13-004-C-2015-11-15" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 69.1112322791712, 30.88876772082879, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 54.13405920381082, 43.04185096971759, 0, 0, 2.824089826471589, 0, 0 ], null ], "volatility_latest": 14.977173075360389, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-13-005-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "KARAPAI / AMAMBAY", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015 ], "gaps": [ 13.426329555361814, 12.831858407079647 ], "vote_cycles": 2, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-13-005-M-2021-10-10", "PY-13-005-M-2015-11-15" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 56.71316477768091, 43.28683522231909, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 54.498525073746315, 41.666666666666664, 0, 0, 3.8348082595870205, 0, 0 ], null ], "volatility_latest": 3.834808259587021, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-13-005-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "KARAPAI / AMAMBAY", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015 ], "gaps": [ 28.84448305821025, 11.622641509433961 ], "vote_cycles": 2, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-13-005-C-2021-10-10", "PY-13-005-C-2015-11-15" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 64.42224152910512, 35.57775847089487, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 53.81132075471698, 42.18867924528302, 0, 0, 4.0, 0, 0 ], null ], "volatility_latest": 10.610920774388145, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-14-018-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YBYRAROVANA / CANINDEYU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015 ], "gaps": [ 72.48337537262096, 64.4489935175708 ], "vote_cycles": 2, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-018-M-2021-10-10", "PY-14-018-M-2015-11-15" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 86.24168768631048, 0, 0, 0, 0, 13.75831231368952, 0 ], [ 75.16206073012624, 9.723643807574208, 0, 0, 0, 4.401228249744115, 10.713067212555442 ], null ], "volatility_latest": 20.43671102012965, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-14-018-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YBYRAROVANA / CANINDEYU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015 ], "gaps": [ 68.21460775473399, 59.13194444444444 ], "vote_cycles": 2, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-018-C-2021-10-10", "PY-14-018-C-2015-11-15" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 80.77096483318304, 12.556357078449054, 0, 0, 0, 6.672678088367899, 0 ], [ 71.31944444444444, 12.1875, 0, 0, 0.7986111111111112, 4.930555555555555, 10.76388888888889 ], null ], "volatility_latest": 11.5625, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-14-019-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YBY PYTA / CANINDEYU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015 ], "gaps": [ 0.5195704883962591, 11.447811447811448 ], "vote_cycles": 2, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-019-M-2021-10-10", "PY-14-019-M-2015-11-15" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 50.25978524419813, 49.74021475580187, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 43.89129389129389, 55.33910533910534, 0, 0, 0.4329004329004329, 0, 0.3367003367003367 ], null ], "volatility_latest": 6.368491352904235, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-14-019-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "YBY PYTA / CANINDEYU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021, 2015 ], "gaps": [ 3.1201248049921997, 4.735655224254573 ], "vote_cycles": 2, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv", "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-019-C-2021-10-10", "PY-14-019-C-2015-11-15" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 45.53648812619171, 48.656612931183915, 0, 0, 0, 5.806898942624372, 0 ], [ 40.71661237785016, 45.45226760210473, 0, 0, 3.63317464294663, 0, 10.19794537709847 ], null ], "volatility_latest": 13.831120020045104, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-01-011-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ARROYITO / CONCEPCION", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021 ], "gaps": [ 10.108896650914321 ], "vote_cycles": 1, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-01-011-M-2021-10-10" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 49.92808711732073, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 50.07191288267927 ], null, null ], "volatility_latest": null, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-01-011-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ARROYITO / CONCEPCION", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021 ], "gaps": [ 9.623259623259623 ], "vote_cycles": 1, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-01-011-C-2021-10-10" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 45.126945126945124, 35.5036855036855, 0.7575757575757576, 0, 1.8837018837018837, 9.295659295659295, 7.4324324324324325 ], null, null ], "volatility_latest": null, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-01-012-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "PASO HORQUETA / CONCEPCION", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021 ], "gaps": [ 25.459317585301836 ], "vote_cycles": 1, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-01-012-M-2021-10-10" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 35.65804274465692, 61.11736032995876, 0, 0, 0, 3.224596925384327, 0 ], null, null ], "volatility_latest": null, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-01-012-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "PASO HORQUETA / CONCEPCION", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021 ], "gaps": [ 45.663454410674575 ], "vote_cycles": 1, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-01-012-C-2021-10-10" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 25.982209043736102, 71.64566345441068, 0, 0, 0, 2.3721275018532246, 0 ], null, null ], "volatility_latest": null, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-02-022-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN VICENTE PANCHOLO / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021 ], "gaps": [ 18.232841565105836 ], "vote_cycles": 1, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-022-M-2021-10-10" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 56.87940987812701, 0, 0, 2.485567671584349, 0, 0, 40.63502245028865 ], null, null ], "volatility_latest": null, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-02-022-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN VICENTE PANCHOLO / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021 ], "gaps": [ 15.492957746478874 ], "vote_cycles": 1, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-022-C-2021-10-10" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 52.96094750320103, 37.467989756722154, 0, 2.9449423815621, 0.8322663252240717, 4.065300896286812, 1.7285531370038412 ], null, null ], "volatility_latest": null, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-02-033-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN JOSE DEL ROSARIO / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021 ], "gaps": [ 57.06422018348624 ], "vote_cycles": 1, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-033-M-2021-10-10" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 75.04587155963303, 17.98165137614679, 0, 0, 0, 0, 6.972477064220183 ], null, null ], "volatility_latest": null, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-02-033-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "SAN JOSE DEL ROSARIO / SAN PEDRO", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021 ], "gaps": [ 67.35241502683363 ], "vote_cycles": 1, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-02-033-C-2021-10-10" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 79.78533094812164, 12.432915921288014, 0, 5.456171735241503, 0, 0, 2.3255813953488373 ], null, null ], "volatility_latest": null, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-09-012-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "MARIA ANTONIA / PARAGUARI", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021 ], "gaps": [ 3.6195286195286194 ], "vote_cycles": 1, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-012-M-2021-10-10" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 51.80976430976431, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 48.19023569023569 ], null, null ], "volatility_latest": null, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-09-012-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "MARIA ANTONIA / PARAGUARI", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021 ], "gaps": [ 21.810526315789474 ], "vote_cycles": 1, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-09-012-C-2021-10-10" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 53.85263157894737, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 46.14736842105263 ], null, null ], "volatility_latest": null, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-13-006-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CERRO CORA / AMAMBAY", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021 ], "gaps": [ 39.82792117679711 ], "vote_cycles": 1, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-13-006-M-2021-10-10" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 68.97030252567305, 29.142381348875936, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1.8873161254510131 ], null, null ], "volatility_latest": null, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-13-006-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CERRO CORA / AMAMBAY", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021 ], "gaps": [ 40.84274304599284 ], "vote_cycles": 1, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-13-006-C-2021-10-10" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 68.02533737262462, 27.182594326631783, 3.470118424676398, 0, 0, 0, 1.321949876067199 ], null, null ], "volatility_latest": null, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-14-012-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "MARACANA / CANINDEYU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021 ], "gaps": [ 10.188373506177841 ], "vote_cycles": 1, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-012-M-2021-10-10" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 44.90581324691108, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 55.09418675308892 ], null, null ], "volatility_latest": null, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-14-012-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "MARACANA / CANINDEYU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021 ], "gaps": [ 13.611615245009075 ], "vote_cycles": 1, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-012-C-2021-10-10" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 49.40512200040331, 35.79350675539423, 0, 0, 0, 13.450292397660819, 1.3510788465416415 ], null, null ], "volatility_latest": null, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-14-014-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "PTO. ADELA / CANINDEYU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021 ], "gaps": [ 80.72289156626506 ], "vote_cycles": 1, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-014-M-2021-10-10" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 90.36144578313252, 9.63855421686747, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], null, null ], "volatility_latest": null, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-14-014-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "PTO. ADELA / CANINDEYU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021 ], "gaps": [ 86.96581196581197 ], "vote_cycles": 1, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-014-C-2021-10-10" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 93.48290598290598, 6.517094017094017, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], null, null ], "volatility_latest": null, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-14-020-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LAUREL / CANINDEYU", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021 ], "gaps": [ 41.06583072100314 ], "vote_cycles": 1, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-020-M-2021-10-10" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 61.912225705329156, 17.24137931034483, 0, 0, 0, 20.846394984326018, 0 ], null, null ], "volatility_latest": null, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-14-020-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "LAUREL / CANINDEYU", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021 ], "gaps": [ 41.246056782334385 ], "vote_cycles": 1, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-14-020-C-2021-10-10" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 61.75078864353312, 17.744479495268138, 0, 0, 0, 20.50473186119874, 0 ], null, null ], "volatility_latest": null, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-15-002-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CAMPO ACEVAL / PDTE. HAYES", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021 ], "gaps": [ 20.373831775700936 ], "vote_cycles": 1, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-15-002-M-2021-10-10" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 46.728971962616825, 25.60747663551402, 0, 0, 0, 0, 27.66355140186916 ], null, null ], "volatility_latest": null, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-15-002-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "CAMPO ACEVAL / PDTE. HAYES", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021 ], "gaps": [ 19.963031423290204 ], "vote_cycles": 1, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-15-002-C-2021-10-10" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 44.54713493530499, 24.58410351201479, 3.573629081947012, 2.7110289587184226, 0, 0, 24.58410351201479 ], null, null ], "volatility_latest": null, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-17-004-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "BOQUERON / BOQUERON", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021 ], "gaps": [ 1.1547344110854503 ], "vote_cycles": 1, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-17-004-M-2021-10-10" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 48.89775351669116, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1.0497585555322275, 50.05248792777661 ], null, null ], "volatility_latest": null, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-17-004-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "BOQUERON / BOQUERON", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2021 ], "gaps": [ 20.523560209424083 ], "vote_cycles": 1, "source_urls": [ "https://www.datos.gov.py/sites/default/files/Resultados-1996-a-2023-municipales-y-generales-por-distrito.csv" ], "event_ids": [ "PY-17-004-C-2021-10-10" ], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ [ 25.591623036649214, 0, 0, 18.32460732984293, 8.293193717277488, 1.675392670157068, 46.1151832460733 ], null, null ], "volatility_latest": null, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-01-013-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ITACUA / CONCEPCION", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [], "gaps": [], "vote_cycles": 0, "source_urls": [], "event_ids": [], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ null, null, null ], "volatility_latest": null, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-01-013-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "ITACUA / CONCEPCION", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [], "gaps": [], "vote_cycles": 0, "source_urls": [], "event_ids": [], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ null, null, null ], "volatility_latest": null, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-15-006-M", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "NUEVA ASUNCION / PDTE. HAYES", "office": "Mayor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [], "gaps": [], "vote_cycles": 0, "source_urls": [], "event_ids": [], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ null, null, null ], "volatility_latest": null, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "PY-15-006-C", "country": "Paraguay", "name": "NUEVA ASUNCION / PDTE. HAYES", "office": "Municipal council", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported ordinary elections; replacements remain in main chronology", "years": [], "gaps": [], "vote_cycles": 0, "source_urls": [], "event_ids": [], "comparison_ci": null, "comparison_status": "Comparison unavailable", "volatility_method": "Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Standalone ANR, PLRA, PEN, PPQ, UNACE and Frente Guasu; all other lists and mixed alliances in Other. No coalition vote is split among constituent parties. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "volatility_groups": [ "ANR", "PLRA", "PEN", "PPQ", "UNACE", "Frente Guasu", "Other" ], "volatility_vectors": [ null, null, null ], "volatility_latest": null, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "BR-AL-G", "country": "Brazil", "name": "Alagoas", "office": "Governor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported public-electorate contests; intervening indirect legislative choices remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2022, 2018, 2014 ], "gaps": [ 4.6600872378567635, 66.23861173376532, 18.246412121787483 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip", "https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip", "https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2014.zip" ], "event_ids": [ "2022", "2018", "2014" ], "comparison_ci": 0, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable", "volatility_groups": [], "volatility_vectors": [], "volatility_latest": null, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null }, { "id": "BR-AM-G", "country": "Brazil", "name": "Amazonas", "office": "Governor", "current": true, "score_gate": false, "event_review": "Separate analytical baseline; actual chronology retained in country workbook", "basis": "Latest imported public-electorate contests; intervening indirect legislative choices remain in main chronology", "years": [ 2022, 2018, 2017 ], "gaps": [ 13.307274204187996, 17.004947469910057, 18.424262866883822 ], "vote_cycles": 3, "source_urls": [ "https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2022.zip", "https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_partido_munzona/votacao_partido_munzona_2018.zip", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Amazonas_gubernatorial_special_election" ], "event_ids": [ "2022", "2018", "BR-AM-G-SPECIAL-2017-08-06" ], "comparison_ci": 25.35862474912902, "comparison_status": "Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open", "volatility_method": "Not calculated: comparable fixed party grouping unavailable", "volatility_groups": [], "volatility_vectors": [], "volatility_latest": null, "volatility_previous": null, "volatility_mean": null } ], "territory": { "territory": "French Guiana", "office": "Territorial Assembly", "scope_status": "Conditional against 8 March 2028 cutoff; enacted mandate ends March 2028, exact poll date unconfirmed", "actual_institution_cycles": 2, "structural_exception": "Current joint territorial assembly first elected in 2015 and again in 2021. Predecessor regional/general councils are different institutions; no third same-institution cycle is invented.", "histories": [ { "year": 2015, "round": 1, "date": "2015-12-06", "parties": [ { "slate_leader": "Rodolphe Alexandre", "votes": 15298, "seats": null, "share": 42.341544422917245 }, { "slate_leader": "Alain Tien-Liong", "votes": 10926, "seats": null, "share": 30.240797121505675 }, { "slate_leader": "Chantal Berthelot", "votes": 3067, "seats": null, "share": 8.48879047882646 }, { "slate_leader": "Line Létard", "votes": 2565, "seats": null, "share": 7.099363409908663 }, { "slate_leader": "Fabien Canavy", "votes": 2064, "seats": null, "share": 5.712704123996678 }, { "slate_leader": "Rémy Louis Budoc", "votes": 1114, "seats": null, "share": 3.0833102684749516 }, { "slate_leader": "Muriel Icare Nourel", "votes": 573, "seats": null, "share": 1.5859396623304733 }, { "slate_leader": "Jean-Marie Taubira", "votes": 349, "seats": null, "share": 0.9659562690285082 }, { "slate_leader": "Sylvio Létard", "votes": 174, "seats": null, "share": 0.4815942430113479 } ], "valid_votes": 36130, "blank_votes": 771, "null_votes": 684, "ballots": 37585, "registered": 88183, "source": "https://www.archives-resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/resultats/regionales-2015/03/index.php", "coverage": "Primary Interior Ministry published territorial results", "note": "Broad political nuance labels are not party identities; separate lists remain separate. Two rounds form one election cycle." }, { "year": 2015, "round": 2, "date": "2015-12-13", "parties": [ { "slate_leader": "Rodolphe Alexandre", "votes": 21296, "seats": 35, "share": 54.61773229719679 }, { "slate_leader": "Alain Tien-Liong", "votes": 17695, "seats": 16, "share": 45.38226770280321 } ], "valid_votes": 38991, "blank_votes": 1114, "null_votes": 1044, "ballots": 41149, "registered": 88202, "source": "https://www.archives-resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/resultats/regionales-2015/03/index.php", "coverage": "Primary Interior Ministry published territorial results", "note": "Broad political nuance labels are not party identities; separate lists remain separate. Two rounds form one election cycle." }, { "year": 2021, "round": 1, "date": "2021-06-20", "parties": [ { "slate_leader": "Rodolphe Alexandre", "votes": 15020, "seats": null, "share": 43.712348301853844 }, { "slate_leader": "Gabriel Serville", "votes": 9510, "seats": null, "share": 27.676726521346875 }, { "slate_leader": "Jean Paul Fereira", "votes": 8020, "seats": null, "share": 23.34041500538401 }, { "slate_leader": "Jessi Américain", "votes": 1811, "seats": null, "share": 5.270510171415268 } ], "valid_votes": 34361, "blank_votes": 533, "null_votes": 532, "ballots": 35426, "registered": 101818, "source": "https://www.archives-resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/resultats/regionales-2021/03/index.php", "coverage": "Primary Interior Ministry published territorial results", "note": "Broad political nuance labels are not party identities; separate lists remain separate. Two rounds form one election cycle." }, { "year": 2021, "round": 2, "date": "2021-06-27", "parties": [ { "slate_leader": "Gabriel Serville", "votes": 25342, "seats": 35, "share": 54.82789208368491 }, { "slate_leader": "Rodolphe Alexandre", "votes": 20879, "seats": 20, "share": 45.17210791631509 } ], "valid_votes": 46221, "blank_votes": 714, "null_votes": 615, "ballots": 47550, "registered": 101639, "source": "https://www.archives-resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/resultats/regionales-2021/03/index.php", "coverage": "Primary Interior Ministry published territorial results", "note": "Broad political nuance labels are not party identities; separate lists remain separate. Two rounds form one election cycle." } ] } }